Lots o' Wednesday morning quarterbacking going on regarding the NH primary victory of Ms. Clinton (NOT "Hillary", even though an awful lot of people say "Rudy"). We got lesson #1 in Mass Communications 101 class with the note that Ms. Clinton's choked up moment of spontaneity was powerful good stuff for the last minute folks who were still making up their mind. Now comes Mass Communications 101 lesson #2, compliments of conservative guru Karl Rove (a.k.a. Dr. Really Evil) who notes the flip side of the dynamics--that Obama probably turned off a lot of people with his smarminess in the last debate.
And you may ask how can a single tone deaf moment can demolish a candidate's entire appeal? Don't underestimate the power of the American public to use a superficial moment to make up their minds. Look what happened to Dean with a mere "Yeehaw!"
Dr. Really Evil - who knows better about the power of negativity
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There's far more going on here than you've suggested. yes, Obama turned people off with his flippant, conceited 'we're making history' attitude. People don't want to make history, they want to be able to pay their bills, not be blown up on the bus to work, and put their kids through school. Yes, Hillary's weepy moment was profound and blown way out of proportion. But it was New Hampshire, a state that takes their votes seriously, that sees their votes as gifts, that fought back against the media who had prematurely written Hillary's campaign off for dead. You combine that with a possible Bradley effect (see 1982 Tom Bradley election in California: white voters tell pollsters they're voting for an African-American and then vote their honky loving conscience when they get in the voting booth), and you might just have your answer. It's never as simple as you make it sound Olson. Just like you white-washed the evolution debate in Flock Of Dodos with your warm and fuzzy portrayal of the IDers, you once again leave out crucial information that cheats your analysis and your audience of the truth. Peel back the layers Olson, there's more to see.
Posted by: Frank | January 10, 2008 2:41 PM
Hello Frank, we meet again. And yes, Simple, is indeed my middle name. It's the essence of mass communication. And I'm afraid that peeling back the layers, as you recommend, often is at odds with effective broad communication. Yes, it might earn kudos from the pedants and trivia treasurers (not that you are necessarily one of those types, but I'm not saying you aren't), but in the end the general public really isn't that keen on layer peeling. They want a good simple story where you can see who lost the big federal ruling in Dover, and who speaks with a clear, confident and honest voice. I'm afraid you're probably looking a little too deep at my movie. Remember, the title is about dodos and the movie opens with cartoon characters. There are no layers to peel. But thanks again for your comments.
Posted by: Randy Olson | January 10, 2008 11:25 PM
Dr. Really Evil - who knows better about the power of negativity
No slam to the Doctor, but I hope by the time we get the elections over with, ( we did have to wait 4 years for them after all), some Doctors Really Nice and Really Good have shown up! LOL! Dave Briggs :~)
Posted by: Dave Briggs | January 11, 2008 1:52 PM