Zorita (and von S): ECHO-G-II fits NCAR quite well (ECHO-I has higher T during MWP-ish; no mention of HadCM3) and he explicitly notes the hockey stick shape. HadCM3 comes in a bit later, and if you look at the scale the mag is half ECHO; but this is not mentioned. There is a note re un-detrended vs detrended – undetrended method underestimates less. Notes Mann et al (RegEM) with CSM, which has a lower bias than von S, and *they think* that it *may* be the non-detrending. They say, they have not implemented this method. Ohhhh-errrrr.
Quickly run from there to the sea ice session where I’m supposed to be. Gray Worster is doing his complex equations for brine drainage, and at the end is violently savaged by Hibler on the grounds that it may be theoretically nice but in practice real ice has a far more complex formation method with rafting, etc etc. Who is right? Hibler is, errr, in his usual form, especially in the Q’s to the next talk.
Coffee. Meet my division head. ITs a big conf (10k+): this is the first time I have.
Palaeo stuff, last 2kyr ish. Californian mega droughts and so on. Some rather dull, to me. Goosse: ECBILT (which is a reduced GCM or somesuch) fits Mann and Jones rather well (ensemble of 25 runs). But what he wants to do (Cli Dyn, in press) is to try to select one run out of 125 to fit the various proxies for various regions as well as possible (varying the forcing?). Usually one model run can be found to fit; sometimes not. For the difference between last 25y, and 1025-50, the largest influence is GHGs (surprise!), about half that as a -ve forcing from land use, a bit less from sulphate, and negligible from solar, volcanoes and orbital (I think this is fitting only European proxies). And European summer Ts are now about as warm as they were 1kyr ago; winter Ts are warmer.
And thats all folks…