While I still have a possible bet in the pipeline, Brian Schmidt now has a real bet lined up for a total of $6-$9k. Personally I think that 0.15 oC/decade is more likely than not, but that less is a realistic possiblity given natural variablity. So while its good from an expected return view it could potentially be bad from a PR view. I wonder how important the latter is… probably not very, in 10 years time.
Brian has a spread of bets across 10, 15 and 20 years which is an interesting way of doing things. I’m still looking forward to making big money (a-la James :-) when a real market for these things developes and reselling good-odds bets for a sure fire profit becomes possible.