Back to the septic tripe I fear (thanks Fergus). From dailytech.com, whatever that is, we have someone “updating Oreskes“. And the work has been submitted to… yes you guessed it, E+E. Bit of a hint there re quality. Does this come under be careful what you wish for?
Oreskes said The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.
The dailytech doesn’t trouble to tell us exactly what the new categories are, but says Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers “implicit” endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. This is no “consensus.” which means it can’t be using the same as Oreskes, since O doesn’t distinguish implicit endorsement from neutrality.
But the new study does find 32 papers that reject the consensus. The dailytech article says that the consensus is defined as humans were having at least some effect on global climate change and I would be very surprised to see a paper rejecting that. More likely, the new study is using some other definition (perhaps the Benny Peiser definition, which amounted to “I don’t understand this abstract but something in it looks usable to me”).
I wonder if the 32 will survive any better than Peisers 34 did?
[Updates: st finds me the reliably septic Monckton who reports *7* papers explicitly rejecting the consensus, and 32-7 implicitly rejecting it. Tim Lambert has had a go at the 7. I don’t have access at home, so won’t comment much yet, but reading the bit about Cao (which TL thinks doesn’t belong) it seems clear that the new work is using a different definition of “consensus” to O; and its not clear what that defn might be. I’m also baffled by one of the new categories – “Quantitative evidence for the consensus” – that apparently has no papers in it. Shurely shome mishtake -W]