RP Sr’s one-man kamikaze attack against the IPCC continues. RPs point appears to be that the IPCCs forcing-since-1750 of +1.6 W/m2 is not compatible with a current imbalance of about 0.85 W/m2. Sadly RPs link to the Hansen paper concerned is currently broken so I’m somewhat guessing what this figure is; I think its probably the earths current radiative imbalance. RP calls it the “the total observed radiative forcing and feedback” but I think he’s got this wrong. If it was, it would need to have a start date on it; and since its based on deep ocean temps it would be tricky to start from 1750.
As far as I can tell, RPs calcs are all wrong: you need to add WV etc feedbacks to the +1.6; then subtract the increase in OLR from the ~0.8 oC temperature rise, to end up with a small (+ve) imbalance.
I’m pretty sure RP has said this before, and Gavin corrected him before , but can’t find a ref to that. Can anyone point it out?
[Update: RP Sr replies here. At some point I’ll reply to the reply… -W]