World Doesn’t End in 2100

Mt wisely points out that the World Doesn’t End in 2100. Its a fair point, and one that is often forgotten. However… its one that I have come to increasingly downweight as time goes by. For two reasons. One is practical: it simply won’t work as a way of motivating people. If thats your best argument, the public won’t listen. And the public, being very impatient of depth, aren’t going to listen to anything but your best argument, if that. The second is that predicting societal and technological changes past 100 years is impossible. Even 100 years is pushing it, but further is just too much.

Comments

  1. #1 ICE
    2007/12/17

    i totally agree with Mt that this 21OO limit is really misleading – but i also agree with your first point that unfortunately what happens after 2100 woulndn’t bother people that much, anyway… however, i wonder about your second point. if we were to push the predictions until, say, 2150, i wonder how much the results would depend on the human forcings between 2100 and 2150 ?

  2. #2 Luboš Motl
    2007/12/19

    The world doesn’t end in 2100 because it already ends in 2017, see

    http://motls.blogspot.com/2004/10/al-gores-doomsday-countdown.html

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