Is Gray a liar? : Stoat

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Is Gray a liar?

Category: climate snarking
Posted on: April 16, 2008 5:42 PM, by William M. Connolley

Just a provocative title, to point you towards I accept Bill Gray's climate bet offer - will he seal the deal? by Brian Schmidt. My feeling is that Gray will wimp out - I'll even put money on it if anyone is interested :-)

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Be careful; this sounds like something a skeptic can twist around quickly, like will April 16, 2018 be cooler than April 16, 2008 ? Or will the trend from 2010-2020 be warmer than 2000-2010 (which seems like a more reasonable assessment).

Posted by: Chris Colose | April 16, 2008 9:48 PM

As I asked on Schmidt's site... is there any reason to suppose he'd go for a charitable bet (of any kind)?

Surely the point of saying 'I'd bet on it' is to say 'I'm so confident I'm right, I'll risk money on it' - but with the proposed betting mechanism, both parties lose their money regardless and the only thing 'risked' on the outcome is the money going to one charity and not another.

I don't think that it would be rational for Grey to take up this offer even if he is sincere in his declared willingness to bet. Since I have a bet going that's on the warm side of William's predictions, I obviously wouldn't bet Grey's side of the equation; but even if I did predict cooling (or non-warming) with Grey's declared confidence, I wouldn't take up this bet.

[Gray can always bet directly with Schmidt if he wants to. The terms are up for negotiation -W]

Posted by: outeast | April 17, 2008 8:35 AM

Outeast - if Gray gives any money to charity normally, this is his chance to double it. Or, like William says, he can negotiate an alternative bet.

Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 17, 2008 2:25 PM

Money given to charity is a tax deduction. Money won by betting is subject to taxes.

Posted by: Eli Rabett | April 17, 2008 5:15 PM

Might want to reconsider that bet offer, William:

http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2008/04/well-ill-be-bill-gray-says-he-wants-to.html

[It would be nice but I'm not holding my breath. $10? -W]

Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 24, 2008 1:42 AM

I'm in for $10.

[OK. Do you take paypal (what am I saying... I mean, *I* take paypal, can you pay by :-)?