Just a provocative title, to point you towards I accept Bill Gray's climate bet offer - will he seal the deal? by Brian Schmidt. My feeling is that Gray will wimp out - I'll even put money on it if anyone is interested :-)
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« Don't believe a word of it, guv | Main | Stern takes bleaker view on warming? »
Is Gray a liar?
Category: climate snarking
Posted on: April 16, 2008 5:42 PM, by William M. Connolley
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Comments
Be careful; this sounds like something a skeptic can twist around quickly, like will April 16, 2018 be cooler than April 16, 2008 ? Or will the trend from 2010-2020 be warmer than 2000-2010 (which seems like a more reasonable assessment).
Posted by: Chris Colose | April 16, 2008 9:48 PM
As I asked on Schmidt's site... is there any reason to suppose he'd go for a charitable bet (of any kind)?
Surely the point of saying 'I'd bet on it' is to say 'I'm so confident I'm right, I'll risk money on it' - but with the proposed betting mechanism, both parties lose their money regardless and the only thing 'risked' on the outcome is the money going to one charity and not another.
I don't think that it would be rational for Grey to take up this offer even if he is sincere in his declared willingness to bet. Since I have a bet going that's on the warm side of William's predictions, I obviously wouldn't bet Grey's side of the equation; but even if I did predict cooling (or non-warming) with Grey's declared confidence, I wouldn't take up this bet.
[Gray can always bet directly with Schmidt if he wants to. The terms are up for negotiation -W]
Posted by: outeast | April 17, 2008 8:35 AM
Outeast - if Gray gives any money to charity normally, this is his chance to double it. Or, like William says, he can negotiate an alternative bet.
Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 17, 2008 2:25 PM
Money given to charity is a tax deduction. Money won by betting is subject to taxes.
Posted by: Eli Rabett | April 17, 2008 5:15 PM
Might want to reconsider that bet offer, William:
http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2008/04/well-ill-be-bill-gray-says-he-wants-to.html
[It would be nice but I'm not holding my breath. $10? -W]
Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 24, 2008 1:42 AM
I'm in for $10.
[OK. Do you take paypal (what am I saying... I mean, *I* take paypal, can you pay by :-)?
Thats on: you+Gray concluding a bet for at least $1000 by end June?
I could go higher but this is just for fun really.
-W]
Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 24, 2008 11:10 AM
I can pay by paypal. We'll work out something if I win - it's just $10.
Posted by: Brian Schmidt | April 24, 2008 6:02 PM