Lucia lost the plot some time ago, mostly by cherry-picking her time period, using a weird data-fitting method and failing to understand what she was looking at. Now RP Jr follows her down the rabbett hole and bizarrely describes her post as “clear”. Well, when people are telling you what you want to hear you’re apt to approve.
[Update: it gets worse. Roger is losing his temper, and unfortunately hasn’t found somone to ask about stats. Although in fact its not really a stats question, its a climate modelling question.You can’t compare the trends from different model realisations with 5 different estimates of the same observational period. To try to understand this, suppose all 5 obs estimates were really really close together – they could be, if all the methods were near equivalent. Then the SD would be very small. But the models, because they aren’t simulating the same real years, will maintain a large spread. Their statistics will be different, and unknowing black boxes will declare them different -W]