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« Yes, they are mad | Main | Nierenberg, chapter 3 and 4 »
Category: politics
Posted on: October 30, 2008 6:24 PM, by William M. Connolley
Says Seed. CIP said that a while ago, but less politely. I'd prefer Obama, but I don't have a vote. Looks like the money is on Obama: 1-9 on, whereas McCain is 5-1.
[Updates: Eli notes that Nature is endorsing Obama. C provides us with a wider choice of odds, and InTrade has him as a near-cert. But can you trust it?]
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Comments
Tom Adams wrote
"Mccain has consistently traded higher at Intrade than in other futures markets, due to the activities of a single "institutional" trader, a trader who is obviously not seeking out the cheapest trades by using all available markets:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html?ref=business
"
I can confirm there was a 10% difference between betfair and intrade, I grabbed some (though a shame I had put too much in before the gap grew to 10%). The gap did briefly disappear but now when writing the difference is 11.1% to 11.6% on betfair compared to 16.6% to 16.9% on Intrade.
Posted by: crandles | October 31, 2008 12:37 PM
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/to-be-elected-president
It does seem as if it is intrade that is out of line. You can get better odds than at paddypower.
Posted by: crandles | October 31, 2008 12:53 PM
Anyone who wants to publish in Nature has to back Obama
Posted by: Eli Rabett | October 31, 2008 3:50 PM
>"InTrade has him as a near-cert".
Is this a spot the deliberate error thing? Intrade has Obama at 84.7% while betfair has close to 89%. I find it surprising that the difference is so persistant rather than arbitrage eliminating the difference.
Posted by: crandles | October 31, 2008 7:04 PM
I don't know about the odds but the polls suggest a landslide.
Obama 353, McCain 185.
Posted by: TrueSceptic | November 3, 2008 7:42 AM
I see that my link disappeared. Again, http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Posted by: TrueSceptic | November 3, 2008 7:46 AM
Well done USA (we hope)!
Posted by: P. Lewis | November 5, 2008 10:33 AM
Yes we can! ;)
Posted by: Magnus Westerstrand | November 5, 2008 4:45 PM