Gore vs Armstrong. Or not

I encountered [[J Scott Armstrong]] via his wiki entry, and the blogosphere, when he proposed a $20,000 bet with Gore (though since each side was supposed to put up $10,000 this seems like puffery from the start). JA pointed out the obvious reasons why the bet is trickery. On Armstrong’s part, this seems to have developed into a website theclimatebet.com/, and its fairly clear which side they are on. The rubbish keeps coming back onto wiki, although it dies quickly.

So far so boring. Gore’s basic response has been “go away I’m busy“, which is fair enough. I’m slightly curious that he hasn’t pointed out the obvious flaws, too. He must have a climatologist who can do that. The strategy is probably to avoid engagement: even bothering to attack Armstrong gives him more credit than he deserves. In which case, I shouldn’t have written this. Ah well.

[Update: Armstrong remains a twat. For example here -W]


  1. #1 Eli Rabett

    It’s ok, you mis-spelled Armsontrg’s name which means google will have problems finding this

    [:-) Fixed. Thanks -W]

  2. #2 James Annan

    Um…isn’t this like 2 years old?

    [The original is, like, 2 years old; A’s continued attempts to get Gore to talk seem younger -W]

  3. #3 Eli Rabett

    Anyhow, it’s old beer. See Real Climate’s comments in 2007

  4. #4 Steve Bloom

    Oddly enough I haven’t noticed any media reports wherein the “forecasting guru” (actually just a business professor with pretensions) takes credit for predicting the recent unfortunate economic events. Funny, that.

  5. #5 Tom Fiddaman

    I wrote a bit about this here
    and here

    The funny thing about the bet is that, despite his attempts to tilt the table as much as possible in favor of the naive forecast, Armstrong blew it. His proposed algorithm should be readily beaten by another nearly-naive forecast, which could be disguised as a simple energy balance climate model with local adjustments. I’m not sure it’s all that helpful to take his action, but I’m halfway interested in taking his money.

  6. #6 Hank Roberts

    He’s still on about this, now claiming almost-victory in the last months: http://www.theclimatebet.com/gore2.gif

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