Just to prove how debased I am, here is an excel spreadsheet graph:
My prediction was that the ice would “return to the trend”, which TP interpreted fairly enough (ah: I see I said it myself) as 1979-2006: 5.84, and the answer was 5.36. I see that if I’d chosen 1995-2006 I’d have been just about spot on (of course it is cheating to say that but I’ve drawn it on anyway). TP tells me what Excel won’t, which is that my SE is 0.5, so by that measure I’m right (and so is he).
To throw in a snark: various official bodies keep telling us that the sea ice is “well below climatology”. Doh! Of course it is. Absolutely no-one thinks it will return to climatology; as a “default” prediction that is completely useless, except to make this years ice “look good” (or bad, depending on how you view things).
Also, this make be a convenient place to link to:
* The inaugural 2007 bet
* The 2008 declaration of victory and invitation for the 2009 round
* http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm which I like and can never find a link to.
Who else did what?
* The Buzz says that “trends for 2009 indicate that we may be on our way to a new record low” so Erin wins no points, and neither does Coby for repeating Arctic sea ice extent tracking below 2008 though he does correctly point up the variability.
* RC racked up an incredible 800+ responses to “Sea ice minimum forecasts”. They wisely make no predictions, but have some nice links.
* Serreze & Stroeve look a bit – ahem – incautious in their choice of words: Standing on the brink… Despite some recovery of the Arctic summer sea ice this year, the signs suggest the transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is underway. Though that reminds me: I have $333 on the Arctic not being ice-free by summer 2020 with Joe “I am a physicist” Romm (and E200 with PFD).
* The “pros” reported in June ARCUS were… a bit rubbish (sorry folks) with *no-one* guessing more than 5. July was a bit better, with M+U bravely guessing a bit more than 5; but August went bad again.
Next years prediction is again the 1979-2006 trend line, +/- 0.5. Takers?