The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years’ time, a top polar specialist has said. Don’t believe it, but who is saying it? Yes, its the Beeb again, determined to run their reputation into the ground and then hammer it six feet under.
This stems from the Caitlin Arctic Survey which isn’t promising.
What Wadhams actually said was “The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view – based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition – that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years. There is no such consensus. “Much of the decrease” is too vague to be bettable; 20 years is too long a horizon; so I don’t think there is any scope for interest here. And did PW really say that? I ask because the Science Report contains very similar text, and I don’t think it was written by Wadhams (he can spell “undeformed” for one thing).
The “survey” latest stuff (here but irritatingly no perma-link) trumpets the “New data, released today (15.10.09)” but you have to nip off to their science page to find it. And… it is some data. But it is only one years slice through one bit of the Arctic, so whilst nice enough it won’t revolutionise anything.