At some point I need to decide if I’ll re-start the by-now-traditional sea ice bet for the summer. Before we start arguing over the details, remember that there is a lot of inter-annual variablity so we need to disagree *a lot* to have a meaningful bet. But at least one person has said in the comments that they feel “worried” by this years ice, so that suggests pessimism that I can exploit!
Any thoughts about what you might want to bet about, please leave a comment. My default position is going to be “will fit the 1979-2009 slope extrapolated to 2010”. Bear in mind that this isn’t a forecast – it is some kind of rough idea. If I frecall, RMG thought ~0.5 Msqkm was about the right uncertainty.
Oh, and here is a pointer to http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm to get you started.