Oh no: another post consisting of nothing but a video:
and links to old posts and songs.
Seems to be somewhat begging the question. Sure, if the owner’s walking in a straight line, the dog’s path may vary either side of it. The point though, is how you determine the path of the owner if all you can see is the path of the dog. When the dog seems to head off in a different direction, how long before you suspect that the owner has changed direction? Alternatively, maybe your original assessment of the owner’s path was influenced by the dog following an interesting scent that’s no longer there.
[Oh dear, I thought that was obvious. Stop focussing on short-term variantions and look at the longer-term averages -W]
When the dog seems to head off in a different direction, how long before you suspect that the owner has changed direction?
If only there were some mathematical techniques we could use to investigate questions such as this… I’m sure there would be all sorts of applications. Somebody should look into it.
Dogs are always like that. The thing to do is carabiner them to a washing line. In climate terms, this means …
I have no idea.
Yeah, but what if the man is drunk?
What if the _dog_ is drunk?
What if there’s a lamppost in the way?
You can’t simplify these problems beyond credibility.
OK, so we posit a sober dog walker.
In general the video/metaphor is great; but it does have a flaw in that its “overlook short term fluctuations” message would discourage attention to (and recognition of) the “wild weather” consequences of climate change – and these will probably turn out to be the most illuminating (for the citizenry) canaries in the coal mine.
[We’ll have to disagree on that -W]
(OK. You’re the expert.)
at 0:43 it looks like he’s shouting at the eocene
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I was going to write something much harsher than this; but then I chanced upon “ignorant…
As we all kinda knew in advance, 2016 turns out to be a record warm year.…
It am Michael Mann, saying
Climate models have proven extremely skillful in predicting the warming that…
Or, “philosophy advances one funeral at a time“? Oddly, no-one has ever said that (<checks…
Warning: tedious navel-gazing. Go elsewhere for substance. Partly this is to explore something I haven’t seen…