Misc

I’ve given up calling it “yet yet more misc” as I’ve forgotten where I’ve got to. So, in no particular order:

In war you will generally find that the enemy has at any time three courses of action open to him. Of those three, he will invariably choose the fourth

via Schneier. Which reminds me of We don’t even know how many legs he’s got.

The Policy Lass is sick of arguing with stupid people. Anyone who has been to WUWT and the comment threads there will empathise. It is all a hopeless morass of nonsense; it cannot be fixed, only risen above. And indeed (as I’ve tried to tell them) the science just goes on without them. But I’ll still visit occaisionally in case there is anyone there who wants to listen.

DA notes another court case in Mann’s favour; weird stuff indeed over there. Will America be brought down by the weight of parasitic lawyers? You’re heading that way.

Its fun to know that hobbyists are playing with our old chips. Thats very hard to do without the specs, which of course aren’t public.

RC has a post about the dangers of extrapolating from PIOMASS, concluding Until then, we believe, we need to let science run its course and let previous model-based predictions of somewhere between “2040 and 2100″ stand. Which reminds me its about time to look at the ice again; not that I have any new ideas.

Then there was the wildly exciting Shakun stuff, about CO2/T lead-lags during the last deglaciation. This wound the Watties up no end (there was a whole tedious series of posts) because it is an article of faith with them that (a) T preceeds CO2 and (b) this actually matters. (a) is the interesting science, but (b) is wrong, if you mean in anything but a rhetorical sense. But we’re back to arguing with stupid people, so lets not.

But inevitably that’s where news is. “Dr” Roy Spencer isn’t stupid, but some of his ideas are. Most notably, his idea that all his ideas are wonderful, but the Giant Global Climate Conspiracy is conspiring to prevent publication, so he’ll just put it on blogs instead with no review. Which is a really bad idea. His latest is yet another retread of the-temperature-record-is-all-wrong (actually he seems to have two incompatible versions, each incompatible with his own satellite record, but this doesn’t trouble him). No-one seems to care enough to rip it apart properly; NS has a go.

Tamino looks at some more stats and finds them woefully bad. I remember doing Fourier analysis and being surprised by the statistical properties of the spectrum. But I did at least get it right before publishing.

Well. Bill Gray. As he says, “Frozen in Time”. His Homage to the Heartland Institute is weird, srsly Weird. I assume it must be ghost-written, but still its got his name on: We should all be grateful for the Heartland Institute and for its Nobel Mission to bring enlightenment and truth to the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) question. “Nobel Mission”? Does he mean “noble mission”? Or are they on a mission to get a Noble prize – that would be so far beyond a joke as to be incomprehensible. And why the caps? Well, its probably just a doddery old man being swindled by the septics; sad.

And DA has some nice quotes re the shallowness of the likes of Dyson when they try to talk about climate science.

Refs

* Rapid coupling of Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO2 during deglaciation
* HadCRAP4

Comments

  1. #1 J
    2012/04/20

    Will America be brought down by the weight of parasitic lawyers?

    It could happen in principle, but that’s a process of gradual accretion, and it takes time. I suspect our now totally dysfunctional Congress will bring us down before the lawyers have a chance to finish the job.

    Nothing can happen here unless the House and the Senate agree. And in the past couple of years we’ve developed a new principle that the Senate can’t do anything without 60 votes. Since it’s unlikely that either party will have 60 votes in the foreseeable future, Congress is basically paralyzed. At least as far as normal business is concerned.

    The one exception is that, when things get catastrophic enough, the Republicans will stick to their guns but the Democrats will cave. This is what happened last August, and it’s going to happen again this year. So the Republicans have learned that they can get what they want by taking the country hostage and pushing it to the brink. As the Democrats get tired of being repeatedly forced to give in to these threats, the Republicans have to push the country closer and closer to disaster before they get their way. It’s a very dangerous dynamic, and seems likely to end badly.

  2. #2 blueshift
    2012/04/20

    It is possible to learn science at WUWT, if you don’t know much yet. I.e. for people like me.

    1) Let a thread sit for a day or two.

    2) Go towards the end and see who has upset the regulars.

    3) Search for posts by the outsider and read what they have to say, follow their links etc. Bonus points if the regulars are also attacking the links.

    [Wise advice -W]

  3. #3 Eli Rabett
    2012/04/20

    Roy actually had that on his last slide at the AGU Fall meeting. Was very adamant about how his genius was not accepted by the establishment. The audience reaction was kind of like what you get when your crazy uncle holds forth at dinner.

    [I wouldn't have thought he was mad enough to have tried to say that in front of real scientists. He must really believe it. Not a good sign -W]

  4. #4 Joseph O'Sullivan
    2012/04/20

    “Will America be brought down by the weight of parasitic lawyers?”

    That’s an interesting question. When regulations are being made and enforced, interested parties and their lawyers have opportunities to get involved. The U.S. pioneered the involvement of the public in regulations, particularly environmental regulations.

    However, the opportunity to get involved is not unlimited. Public access is balanced with the need for the agencies to do their jobs making and enforcing regulations. This is done by giving the public access to the regulatory process, but not unlimited access.

    The direct lawsuits against scientists and scientific organizations are relatively new. These lawsuits seem to be a new form of SLAPP suit with the goal of discouraging scientists from doing science. These suits are a backdoor attempt get around the necessary limits on public access at the regulatory level. The goal is to undercut regulations the plaintiff’s lawyers and their sponsors do not like.

    Unfortunately I think Mann is a guinea pig for the contrarians. If they succeed, prepare for more anti-science lawsuits.

  5. #5 J Bowers
    2012/04/20

    “DA notes another court case in Mann’s favour; weird stuff indeed over there. Will America be brought down by the weight of parasitic lawyers? You’re heading that way.”

    Where we find linked:

    He is hearing the case after judges in Prince William County recused themselves because one of the plaintiffs is Delegate Robert G. Marshall, Prince William Republican.

    He would be the pater of young Joseph Marshall, who is in turn owner of SPPI’s website, DC spindoctor, apparently a dab hand at graphics, “pro-life” campaigner, marketing graduate of GMU with “grassroots” marketing experience under his belt, and raised just a hop, skip and a jump away from a renowned Virginia PO Box. Many roads lead back to Manassas, VA, so to speak.

    As an aside, ever looked into the etymology of Steven Goddard?

  6. #6 John Mashey
    2012/04/20

    re: 5
    Do you have confirmation of that relationship?

    (Yes, I know Robert Marshall’s Wikipedia page includes children Joseph and Thomas, and Joseph’s LinkedIn pager includes Marshall for Senate and other efforts with Tommy Marshall… so this looks very likely, but Marshall is a common name.)

    With GMU connections, many many curious coincidences occur:
    Cuccinelli, Wesley Russell, Milton Johns, Davids Schnare, …

    Also, of course, SPPI does not seem to be more than a website, but a front for the Idso’s, see Fake…, Appendix K.

  7. #7 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/20

    Adjust your Overton Window:
    http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2012/03/roy-spencer-slays-back.html

    [Even Watts ave u that trash, eventually. Though there is enough early stuff to embarass him, if anyone cared -W]

  8. #8 David B. Benson
    2012/04/21

    J Bowers — Is there an article about it in the Bulletin of Insectology?

  9. #9 J Bowers
    2012/04/21

    @ John Mashey.
    On the right, and compare to my last link. Sire Studios’ website has the SPPI site featured on its portfolio page. Cooch has also featured on Joey’s “pro-life” website, IIRC.

    @ David
    That would be the entomological version.

  10. #10 Louise
    2012/04/21

    Interestingly, I had a post and the other posts it was referring to recently deleted at WUWT.

    A poster pointed out that WUWT clearly didn’t censor as somebody else’s hateful message was allowed to stand. I pointed out that the hateful message he referred to had indeed been removed, without acknowledgement or ‘snip’ marks.

    Of course my post and those that it referred to now don’t exist.

    The whole “WUWT doesn’t censor” or “only warmists make personal attacks” is just nonsense. Anthony Watts has said that he thinks I’m mentally ill and that I have ‘issues’ – what a nice man.

  11. #11 Eli Rabett
    2012/04/21

    In which Eli disagrees with John. The Idsos appear to be a conduit to fund SPPI from a third source. Of course, they get to take some off the top. That way SPPI does not have to register and file 990s. OTOH, the IRS might be interested.

  12. #12 The Bishop of Stratocaster
    2012/04/21

    As a public service, you could have a little tunnel off the burrow to accumulate posts that were not not censored at WUWT. Maybe call it “Watt’s not to like?” or something cleverer. People could judge for themselves whether the material was sufficiently vile to merit being not not censored.

    Perhaps someone has already done this elsewhere.

    [Almost invariably the ones that don't go through are the ones I forget to keep. The name is good, though - I must use it -W]

  13. #13 John Mashey
    2012/04/21

    re: 9 J Bowers
    Thanks! Fake… p.73 discussed SPPI, starting “The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)356 is essentially Robert
    Ferguson 357 with a website by Joe Marshall (SIRE Studios).358″. My only issue was being 100% sure that Joe was Bob’s son, not just 99.99%.

    re: 11 Eli
    I think we have no disagreement, I was just being brief. See p.70. Idso’s are certainly a conduit, but SPPI is a front, too.

    a) SPPI is not a 501(c)(3) and Ferguson gets paid through CSCDGC. As far as I can tell, SPPI is not an actual legal entity of any sort, but a front for CSCDGC, in that one would not know from SPPI’s website that Ferguson is an employee of CSCDGC. Ferguson originally filed for 501(c)(3), but never filed 990s, so that disappeared and all the parties apparently OK’d this arrangement.

    b) p.70 also shows the oddities in which money from C. Lambe (Kochs) and DONORS CAPITAL are sent to CSCDGC … but giving an address, not in AZ, but in Haymarket, VA, i.e., Ferguson. Of course, except for the DONORS money that went to Heartland (most almost certainly from Barre Seid), we don’t know the original sources of money through DONORS.
    However, it is interesting to see that Lambe was giving to FF/CSPP, then CSCDGC For Ferguson (2007), but stopped … but somebody started giving through DONORS in 2008, 2009.
    Anyway, look at p.70.

    c) Of course, p.58 shows some of the bigger known donors to Heartland, and some of that money surely found its way to CSCDGC and maybe SPPI, even without the explicit comments in the Form 990s.

    d) IRS: p.20, items 13-16.

  14. #14 John Mashey
    2012/04/21

    re: 9 J Bowers
    Thanks! Fake… p.73 discussed SPPI, starting “The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)356 is essentially Robert
    Ferguson 357 with a website by Joe Marshall (SIRE Studios).358″. My only issue was being 100% sure that Joe was Bob’s son, not just 99.99%.

    re: 11 Eli
    I think we have no disagreement, I was just being brief. See p.70. Idso’s are certainly a conduit, but SPPI is a front, too.

    a) SPPI is not a 501(c)(3) and Ferguson gets paid through CSCDGC. As far as I can tell, SPPI is not an actual legal entity of any sort, but a front for CSCDGC, in that one would not know from SPPI’s website that Ferguson is an employee of CSCDGC. Ferguson originally filed for 501(c)(3), but never filed 990s, so that disappeared and all the parties apparently OK’d this arrangement.

    b) p.70 also shows the oddities in which money from C. Lambe (Kochs) and DONORS CAPITAL are sent to CSCDGC … but giving an address, not in AZ, but in Haymarket, VA, i.e., Ferguson. Of course, except for the DONORS money that went to Heartland (most almost certainly from Barre Seid), we don’t know the original sources of money through DONORS.
    However, it is interesting to see that Lambe was giving to FF/CSPP, then CSCDGC For Ferguson (2007), but stopped … but somebody started giving through DONORS in 2008, 2009.
    Anyway, look at p.70.

    c) Of course, p.58 shows some of the bigger known donors to Heartland, and some of that money surely found its way to CSCDGC and maybe SPPI, even without the explicit comments in the Form 990s.

    d) IRS: p.20, items 13-16.

  15. #15 Antiquated Tory
    2012/04/22

    Since this is an open thread, enjoy this cartoon by the man who writes Sally Forth: https://mediumlarge.wordpress.com/2012/04/20/medium-large-comic-friday-april-20-2012/

  16. #16 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/23

    “Watt’s not to like?”
    But as, these days, we aspire to a nominal orthography, that’d be
    Watts’ or Watts’s

  17. #17 crandles
    2012/04/24

    >”RC has a post about the dangers of extrapolating from PIOMASS, concluding Until then, we believe, we need to let science run its course and let previous model-based predictions of somewhere between “2040 and 2100″ stand. Which reminds me its about time to look at the ice again; not that I have any new ideas.”

    How about the dangers of assuming the line to be PIOMAS and the 7 points Cryosat2 volume to extrapolate that there is only a little more ice than PIOMAS calculates?
    http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b0168eaa1e7cf970c-800wi

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/04/live-blog-cryosat-results.html

    [Could you expand a bit? That wasn't clear -W]

  18. #18 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/24

    Aside, the relatives in N. Am. are doing better; some parts of the video may be a bit, um, NSFSqueamish, but it’s inspiring:
    http://nationalzoo.si.edu/Animals/NorthAmerica/Conservation/blackfootedferrets/

  19. #19 crandles
    2012/04/24

    There has been press conference on Cryosat2 results.

    http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMU55NW91H_LPcryosat_0.html

    Hopefully data will begin to flow soon.

    Of particular interest is how the volume measured by Cryosat compares to PIOMAS model calculations. A graph was screened – first link in post above. The line looks very much like PIOMASS data excluding certain regions like sea of okhotsk, Hudson Bay, Bering Sea. So it is best to compare to PIOMAS data near minimum date and AFAICS it then looks very similar.

    If this interpretation of the graph is correct, points representing Cryosat measurements look just above the line. So maybe PIOMAS is only a little understated or maybe Cryosat is overmeasuring.

    Second link is Neven’s live blog on the press conference where there is a little discussion on interpreting the graph.

    I was mainly prompting for any thoughts on the results announced. As a secondary question, whether I was likely to be incorrectly interpreting the graph linked seemed most relevant thing to ask about our main interest – the arctic sea ice.

    [Ah, OK, I wondered if it might be that. I think I shall wait-n-see and hope for a clearer version rather than the live-blogging excitement -W]

  20. #20 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/24

    > Will America be brought down
    > by the weight of parasitic lawyers?

    That’s not how parasites work. Think remoras (suckerfish) or jackals.

    [I think you're being over-optimistic. That is only true at the end of a long evolutionary period - the parasites "learn" not to kill the prey. I doubt we'll have that -W]

    Someone on National Public Radio yesterday mentioned a cartoon showing a group of Tea Party demonstrators in front of a “Government” building, and nearby a group of Occupy demonstrators in front of a “Bank” building — then showed that above the ground floor level, those were different doors to the same building, from which suits were looking down on the little people below.

    Once the predators take the prey _down_, and the meat’s been eaten and the bones cracked for the marrow, the predatory lawyers come in to strip the remaining scraps flesh from the bones and lick out the dregs of marrow and eat the offal.

    No. If it falls, it will be by the weight of predatory corporations that have captured the government.

    Robert Reich observed yesterday on the local radio station (Krasny, Forum) that the reason we have “big government” is because every regulation gets pockmarked and wormy due to loopholes crafted to give one industry or investor some exemption, and that process of adding loopholes goes on all the time — and so each regulation gets increasingly ornate in a lacework sort of way, elaborated with finer and finer details to add or block loopholes.

    Simplify by making the laws and regulations work — but that drastically perturbs the current flows of money and power that now curl around the ornate elaborate lobby-riddled government.

    The corporations are still working at accomplishing what the British East India Company was doing before the war for independence.

    Back in the 1760s, individuals formed a government to throw off the weight of the British. The British lion had several heads, corporate, military and political. It had been owned from the top down as a monarchy, modulo the Magna Carta carving off some chunks for an aristocracy.

    The colonists organized from the bottom up. They built a government. And the corporations and investors immediately started worming their way into it, taking it over. That’s what they do. There’s a class in the US now who’d love to have a feudal Magna Carta-grade government here. It’d be so much simpler.

    Those nowadays who don’t want that to happen — from all spokes of the political wheel — are working at standing and holding off the predators rather than falling over.

    Regrettably and typically we’re often fooled into thinking, and working, at cross purposes — that’s the nature of spokes, of course, they all come in toward the center each at its own unique angle. Each pulls at the center in its own direction; the sum of the forces _is_ the center. When a bunch of those spokes gets gathered together and all aligned to serve one side of the wheel, it wobbles badly.

    Why worry? Well, Ray Bradbury observed that he wrote not to predict the future but to prevent it.

    No, I don’t know anything about this. Just speculating.

  21. #21 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/25

    Oh, noes! Will our CO2 persist long enough to save the great-e12 grandchirren from the ice?

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/2012/01/10/ice-age/
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n2/full/ngeo1358.html

    [Hmm, I'm still a bit baffled by what the Caitlin people are for -W]

  22. #22 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/29

    If anyone wants ammunition for a Poe, you could assert this is clear proof it’s them sat-a-lites messing with God’s crystal dome that’s causing the North Pole to melt out. I mean you can see it right there with your own eyes: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1208/2012GL051094/2012gl051094-op01-tn-350x.jpg

  23. #23 Hank Roberts
    2012/04/30

    Well, Caitlin is an insurance company ….

    AMEG’s busy in your neighborhood:
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/1739/arc26.htm

    [Ah, but I did that -W]

  24. #24 Radge Havers
    2012/04/30

    “it cannot be fixed, only risen above.”

    Perhaps not so much a matter of arguing with stupid people as dealing with bullies.

    Of course there’s no cure for stupidity in all its infinite varieties, but it can be somewhat curtailed, diluted, re-routed, and marginalized. The “fix” is systemic (admittedly no easy thing).

    PBS had a pretty good interview recently with Marty Kaplan on failing media. He mentions the issue of climate change as an example. Well worth a look.

    “Truth is mighty and will prevail. There is nothing wrong with this, except that it ain’t so.”
    -Mark Twain

  25. #25 P. Lewis
    2012/06/08

    Bees, Varroa and virus interaction, if you’ve not already seen it.