Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
and so on. Its all sourced to “an email to the Guardian” which unfortunately they don’t reproduce. Now is the time to mention the Arctic Methane Emergency Group of which Wadhams is a member, to his discredit.
There is some strange stuff in the article, such as [Wadhams] predicted the imminent break-up of sea ice in summer months in 2007 which I don’t think is true – certainly, no-one predicted that 2007 would be unusually low, as far as I know [*]. It does quote him as saying I have been predicting [the collapse of sea ice in summer months] for many years which isn’t too impressive – it rather sounds like he has been predicting it, but it hasn’t happened, but he’s hoping (so to speak) that now he’s right: This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates. But I’m not sure where those predictions were may. And we don’t know quite what he means by “ice-free”.
I’ll be doing the round-up of the bets at the end of September, if you were wondering.
[*] Or maybe he made these predictions in 2007 (see comments).