climate betting

Category archives for climate betting

Sea ice: oh no, not again

Yay, more nonsense about sea ice: the traditional “US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 201x”, where this time x=6. Does anyone actually believe this rubbish? If so, I have money just sitting around, bored, twiddling its little green fingers and waiting to take your bet. If “summer ice free” means “oh yeah, not…

Sea ice betting report

And not before time, you might say. Sea ice this year reached a new record minimum in the Arctic (though not in the Antarctic, which begins to look wind-driven. And before you think the two trends might be opposite-and-nearly equal, look at Tamino’s convenient analysis which I can never find). Which means I lost some…

This year’s story so far: in May, I accepted some bets but was still trying to come to terms with Rob Dekker. In the comments there we came to agreement on the following: If both NSIDC and IARC-JAXA September 2016 monthly average sea ice extent report are above 4.80 million km^2, RD pays WMC US$…

Sea ice, part 2

Or perhaps part 3. I’ve lost track. Sea ice – and now for something just a tiny bit different refers, as does the earlier This year’s sea ice. Yes, it looks like being part 3. The above is the IJIS sea ice. Nothing very exciting at the moment (NSIDC have some nice pix. April 2011…

Hurrah. That saves lots of effort paying :-). Not long ago it was looking bad for the good guys (i.e., me) with a “douple dip” recession of sea ice. But a strong perforcance from the boys up north in the mushy white stuff stakes saw a sharp rebound at the end of the month, leading…

Yet more sea ice

Continuing from Three views of sea ice. Well, tis now mid-June, so the futurology aspect of the prediction is closing rapidly. Or so you would have thought. I’ve just taken £50 against CR for the ice being below 4.735 (he gets the low side) or above 4.935 (I get the high side). But my principal…

Three views of sea ice

The troops are getting restive. What wil happen to this year’s sea ice? Rumours abound. Let’s look at some pictures. Probably the least interesting is this one from NSIDC. But it looks exciting, doesn’t it. Woo-hoo, look, the sea ice now is lower than it was in 2007, that means it will be at minimum,…

Sea ice, briefly

I doubt I’ll be running the ever-exciting competition again this year, due to a lack of people who strongly disagree with me (i.e., the decline will be on the long term-trend, plus some error margin). But While I’m here there appears to be some excitement from Romm over a Grauniad study about a GRL study…

Sea ice again?

At some point I need to decide if I’ll re-start the by-now-traditional sea ice bet for the summer. Before we start arguing over the details, remember that there is a lot of inter-annual variablity so we need to disagree *a lot* to have a meaningful bet. But at least one person has said in the…

Sea ice, briefly

Via Quark Soup, a reminder to look at the sea ice data. IJIS have a nice pic http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm which is better than the cryosphere today pix. I have a somewhat different take on it to DA: looking at that pic it is clear just how exceptional 2007 was. If you look at the integrated difference…