climate betting

Category archives for climate betting

I was going to rant about Lord “I know what you should hear” Ahmed but that’s just the religious suppressing freedom of speech, which is hardly news. But then along comes a much more interesting rant, from Vicky Pope, about the good old Arctic sea ice. ‘Apocalyptic climate predictions’ mislead the public, say experts. Met…

Gore vs Armstrong. Or not

I encountered [[J Scott Armstrong]] via his wiki entry, and the blogosphere, when he proposed a $20,000 bet with Gore (though since each side was supposed to put up $10,000 this seems like puffery from the start). JA pointed out the obvious reasons why the bet is trickery. On Armstrong’s part, this seems to have…

Asks climatematters@columbia. But they ask it in a way that suggests they think the trend is going to be steep. So I offered them the standard bet. We’ll see. Meanwhile, anyone interested in whether 2009 is likely to be a record can get some action over at ipredict (thanks Gareth). I’ve bought some; current price…

Another trail of twaddle

Sea ice again. I was reading Gareth who had been reading Monbiot. And so I did too. After I’d waded through the goo and the dribble about Bush, the first item of substance was A new summary of the science published since last year’s Intergovernmental Panel report suggests that – almost a century ahead of…

It looks like I’m safe for this year. I’m being just a teensy bit premature, but its rather unlikely to change, people want to pay up :-) and others have said it anyway (irritatingly that link will probably fade, so to quote “The Arctic sea ice cover appears to have reached its minimum extent for…

Seaice: looking good

People have been posting comments about the sea ice again. We’re close to the min, though maybe not there yet, but from http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm, which I think is the best pic available, it looks good for the good guys. The original in this series is Betting on sea ice?

Eat your hearts out real scientists :-) See here. I think its hung off a trip in the icebreaker that QS got; see his blog I get to say Bets have already been laid on whether this summer’s ice loss will be more than last year’s. William Connolley, a software engineer who used to model…

Sea ice update

Since RC has posted on the sea ice, maybe its a good time for an update. From http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ we have

The summary of betting on sea ice refers. If you look in my comments, you’ll find any number of well intentioned people advising me that its time to close up the bets before I take a bath. But I haven’t. Anyone wanting to pile in is still welcome (if you can’t be bothered to look…

As I said before, I don’t think much of the latest prediction of cooling. But apparently , the authors take it seriously, and believe it as a prediction (pers comm). So RC has decided to see if they are serious. My expectation is that they will find some spurious excuse for wimping out (I’ve offered…