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Jean-Daniel Bancal and Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, "Steady-State Dynamics of the Forest Fire Model on Complex Networks" (arXiv:0911.0569).
Many sociological networks, as well as biological and technological ones, can be represented in terms of complex networks with a heterogeneous connectivity pattern. Dynamical processes taking place on top of them can be very much influenced by this topological fact. In this paper we consider a paradigmatic model of non-equilibrium dynamics, namely the forest fire model, whose relevance lies in its capacity to represent several epidemic processes in a general parametrization. We study the behavior of this model in complex networks by developing the corresponding heterogeneous mean-field theory and solving it in its steady state. We provide exact and approximate expressions for homogeneous networks and several instances of heterogeneous networks. A comparison of our analytical results with extensive numerical simulations allows to draw the region of the parameter space in which heterogeneous mean-field theory provides an accurate description of the dynamics, and enlights the limits of validity of the mean-field theory in situations where dynamical correlations become important.
Their approach looks reasonable; extending their technique to include pairwise correlations (the first order of sophistication beyond the simple mean field) might be a worthwhile thing to try.
