Mathematics Basterdizations
pontiff | June 23, 2008Pascal's Wager is a classic for those who want to argue about the existence of God, but now, according to Peter L. Bernstein, of the New York Times, we should be using it for financial risk calculations. Say what?
Bernstien starts out fine: For example, the average annual inflation rate in the United States was only 1.4 percent from the end of 1954 to the end of 1965. But in 1965, who could have imagined that inflation would average nearly five times that rate over the next 15 years?
In short, our forecasts are wrong from time to time.
I might quibble a bit with the "time to time", BTW...…
pontiff | June 18, 2008David Brooks, has an op-ed in the New York Times about Tiger Woods and his astonishing string of triumphs in the golfing world (including last weekends U.S. Open which I watched the end of on both Saturday and Sunday: my wife was right he did make that last put.) Brooks piece waxes on and on about the Tiger's ability to concentrateAnd for that, in this day and age, he stands out. As I've been trying to write this column, I've toggled over to check my e-mail a few times. I've looked out the window. I've jotted down random thoughts for the paragraphs ahead. But Woods seems able to mute the…
pontiff | June 11, 2008The New York Times has a policy on anonymous sources. Great! But do they have a policy on statistics? They certainly need it. I mean, take a look at the graphic from an article on women and smart phones:
I mean, sure the numbers on the right hand side could be used to support the caption "women are more concerned with price, size and design" (and keyboards by their same reasoning) but the hell if I'm going to believe that without knowing what a reasonable estimate of the margin of error is in the survey being reported on. I mean, without such data, the graphic displayed has absolutely no…
pontiff | January 3, 2008From a New York Times article describing the Nature Theater of Oklahoma's production of "No Dice:" "Poetics," for example, was choreographed using dice. Each face on the die represented one of six possible gestures, and each appendage -- two arms, two legs and the head -- got its own roll of the dice. Dice determined where the actors stand and for how long. There are four actors in "Poetics," but, alas, no such thing as a four-sided die. So, to determine who did what, the directors used a dreidel.
No such thing as a four sided dice? Obviously no one among the choreographers has played…