predictions
oracknows | March 20, 2017[Orac note: A combination of power outages, travel to Seattle, and trying to write something for my not-so-super-secret other blog conspired to leave me with nothing for this morning. So I thought I'd resurrect this old gem, which hasn't been reposted in at least four years. I actually did try to remove the dead links (this post dates back nearly 12 years in some form or another), but I probably missed a couple. I also changed the post a little, just to remove clearly outdated stuff. In the mean time, be assured that, with no more travel planned and our power restored, things should get back…
oracknows | December 31, 2015As 2015 draws to a close today, all I can think is: Another year in the can. Since my family is here, and it's a holiday, I'm going to keep this one brief and wish everyone a Happy New Year.
In addition, I can't help but wonder what's going to happen in 2016. Who could have predicted that last year would begin with a measles outbreak centered at Disneyland that would end up inspiring a law in California that I never would have thought possible, namely SB 277, which eliminates nonmedical exemptions to school vaccine mandates. Who could have predicted that the antivaccine movement, in…
gregladen | April 23, 2014I have a little "science by spreadsheet" project for you, concerning the relationship between El Niño and Atlantic hurricanes.
The chance of an El Niño event happening this year seems to go up every few days, with most, perhaps all, climate models suggesting that El Niño will form this Summer or Fall. Climate experts tell us that there are typically fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic during El Niño years. So, I was interested to see how many fewer. Also, there appears to be a different kind of El Niño that happens sometimes, perhaps more often these days as an effect of global warming,…
sastyk | December 30, 2010This year I have a jump on my predictions - as part of my comparatively new role as Editor of the Peak Oil Review Commentary section, I had the fun of asking a whole lot of smart people what they think is going to happen, and thinking about their predictions first.
If you haven't seen them already, you should definitely check them out! Everyone from Ilargi to Jeff Rubin, The Peak Oil Hausfrau to Richard Heinberg to Tad Patzek kicked in, and realistically, you'll probably get a lot clearer view of the future through a lot of eyes than just one.
Which leads me to my annual official caveat,…
sastyk | December 30, 2009The art of losing isn't hard to master;
so many things seem filled with the intent
to be lost that their loss is no disaster.
Lose something every day. Accept the fluster
of lost door keys, the hour badly spent.
The art of losing isn't hard to master.
Then practice losing farther, losing faster:
places, and names, and where it was you meant
to travel. None of these will bring disaster.
I lost my mother's watch. And look! my last, or
next-to-last, of three loved houses went.
The art of losing isn't hard to master.
I lost two cities, lovely ones. And, vaster,
some realms I owned, two rivers, a…
dgmacarthur | April 28, 2009Cho, Y., Go, M., Kim, Y., Heo, J., Oh, J., Ban, H., Yoon, D., Lee, M., Kim, D., Park, M., Cha, S., Kim, J., Han, B., Min, H., Ahn, Y., Park, M., Han, H., Jang, H., Cho, E., Lee, J., Cho, N., Shin, C., Park, T., Park, J., Lee, J., Cardon, L., Clarke, G., McCarthy, M., Lee, J., Lee, J., Oh, B., & Kim, H. (2009). A large-scale genome-wide association study of Asian populations uncovers genetic factors influencing eight quantitative traits Nature Genetics, 41 (5), 527-534 DOI: 10.1038/ng.357A paper just released in Nature Genetics takes the most comprehensive look yet at the genetic factors…
dgmacarthur | March 6, 2009Nejentsev et al. (2009). Rare Variants of IFIH1, a Gene Implicated in Antiviral Responses, Protect Against Type 1 Diabetes. Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1167728
The first item on my long list of predictions for 2009 was that this will be the year of rare variants for common disease - the year that we really start tracking down the low-frequency genetic variants (between 0.1 and 5% in frequency) that likely contribute substantially to the risk of common diseases like arthritis and diabetes. It's far too early for me to claim vindication for this prediction, but a paper published online today…
dgmacarthur | January 19, 2009Well, it's a little late, but I finally have a list of what I see as some of the major trends that will play out in the human genomics field in 2009 - both in terms of research outcomes, and shifts in the rapidly-evolving consumer genomics industry.
For genetics-savvy readers a lot of these predictions may seem, well, predictable, so I want to emphasise that my purpose here is not really to make risky forecasts; I'm more interested in laying out what I see as the major big picture trends for the year to come, with a few specific predictions about unknowns thrown in. In any case (as you will…
illconsidered | April 26, 2006This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.
Objection:
In 1988 Hansen predicted dire warming over the next decade and he was off by 300%. Why in the world should we listen to the same doom and gloom from him today?
Answer:
While it may well be simply ignorant repetition of misinformation in some instances, at its source, this story is a plain and simple lie.
In 1988, James Hansen testified before the US Senate on the danger of Anthropogenic Global Warming. As part of that testimony he presented…
illconsidered | March 26, 2006This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.
Objection:
Scientists can't even predict the weather next week, so why should we believe what some climate model tells us about 100 years from now?
Answer:
Climate and weather are really very different things and the level of predictability is comparably different. Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and unpredictable behaviour of weather. Think of it as…