Obama wins Iowa

Kevin Drum sums it up:

I have to say that Barack Obama’s victory was mighty impressive. Not only did he win by a pretty solid margin, 38% vs. 30% for both Clinton and Edwards, but he won in virtually every subcategory. He won among both men and women; he won among Democrats, independents, and Republicans; he won among every income group; and he won among people most concerned with economy, the war, and healthcare.

Even more impressive, the Democratic primary attracted many more voters, indicating that Democrats (and Obama in particular) drew in more people, and especially independent voters. That’s a powerful measure of the enthusiasm out there for the Democratic field, and especially for Senator Obama. Congratulations to all the candidates, especially Chris Dodd and Joe Biden, both apparently ending their campaigns. Hillary did well, and I’m interested to see how she runs now that she can’t simply claim that her victory is inevitable. Given how long Edwards has spent in Iowa, he’s got to be a bit disappointed to finish so far behind Obama, but he still got more votes than any Republican (except maybe Huckabee).

On the Republican side, we fell into the “third best case” laid out by Publius. Huckabee wins, but without national support even among prominent evangelicals, he won’t repeat that performance elsewhere. Rudy tanked, Romney underperformed his expectations, and McCain barely beat out batshit crazy protest candidate Ron Paul, and tied with Fred Thompson, who barely woke up long enough to file paperwork to get on the ballot. All of them will have to go back to the drawing boards, and if we’re lucky, they’ll stick to their doodling until November.

Comments

  1. #1 csrster
    January 4, 2008

    For the benfit of a foreigner, how open is the Republican race for new high profile candidates at this stage? Won’t they start getting desperate for someone like Condoleeza Rice to come and save them from the unelectable bunch they seem to be stuck with?

  2. #2 Geoffrey Alexander
    January 4, 2008

    Here in Iowa the race would have been wide open as of yesterday morning; Huckabee would still have done well but anyone else could have equalled or better him, and by “anyone else” I mean that dream candidate that Republicans are still looking for; essentially, a Reagan Redux. Ain’t gonna happen.

    Condi Rice would be enthusiastically received by only a small cadre of the currently-constituted GOP, and Democrats and Independents who might otherwise stand up for her would likely shy away due to the taint of being part of the most reviled administration in modern memory (call it the “Scarlet Dubya”…) so that scenario is doubtful. Rice would be the candidate of Change for the Republicans as Obama is for the Democrats — but Republicans are (to their peril & ignominy) absolutely not about change right now, nor about the status quo, but something like a pathetic political atavism.

    As to whether Republicans as a species will feel like lowering their sights to something more electorally-realistic as the national campaigns wind onward (McCain, for example, who would actually be a good choice if Republicans were living in the real world these days) — that’s up in the air. But you’re talking about a Party that is regards MacCain as too soft, too liberal in his policies (!!). They’re hopeless, is what they are.

    It’s looking like the only major-name hold outs (or those who have held out a hint they might enter) will want to run as Independents (Bloomberg, for example).

    Can’t blame ’em.

  3. #3 Mike Belgrove
    January 4, 2008

    One of the writers on a site I blog for talked a about Obama’s win. Of course he first had to explain was a Caucus was to our readers, lol.

    Honestly I hate to play the race card but I’m very surprised to see Obama win in a state like Iowa. Maybe the world isn’t as racist as I thought. I’m feeling like if he can win there he can win anywhere.

  4. #4 al??veri?
    January 5, 2008

    For the world I think he is better than Bush family.

  5. #5 Dave Briggs
    January 8, 2008

    For the benfit of a foreigner, how open is the Republican race for new high profile candidates at this stage? Won’t they start getting desperate for someone like Condoleeza Rice to come and save them from the unelectable bunch they seem to be stuck with?

    Well, she would give the Republicans a chance to have the first in both woman and black at the same time! LOL!
    Dave Briggs :~)

  6. #6 Josh Rosenau
    January 8, 2008

    At this point, the money and the activists are largely tied to the established campaigns. A new candidate might emerge from a brokered convention, but entering the primaries would actually weaken a candidate in that scenario.

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