So that stuff I said about Obama winning? Not so much. Ditto for the parts were I predicted an Obama sweep of CT, MA, NJ. Of those, he took only CT, making my predictions pretty crappy.
But even setting aside the fact that a majority of California Democrats picked the wrong candidate, I still have a low opinion of the electorate.
The official guide sent to every registered voter in the state contained the following text in the argument submitted by the proponents of Prop. 91:
VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 91. IT’S NO LONGER NEEDED.
As the official proponents of this measure, we are encouraging you to VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 91. In 2006, our coalition qualified this measure… [blah, blah, blah, minutiae omitted]
By passing Proposition 1A, voters solved the problem of state raids on our gas tax funds.
Proposition 91 is no longer needed.
We respectfully urge you to vote NO ON PROPOSITION 91.
43% OF VOTERS VOTED YES ON PROPOSITION 91! I think ill of that 43% of the electorate, and at least some of them may have voted in the Democratic primary.
Nonetheless, it appears that my basic prediction has been borne out. Obama won 14 states to Hillary’s 10, and is claiming a majority of the day’s delegates (though that won’t be clear until all the votes are counted). The campaign goes on, with Obama in strong position, not only in delegate count, but in funds raised, ability to raise more funds, and in the states that vote soon. Assuming the trends in public opinion continue their trends, he could still win this.
It’ll be an interesting few months.
No matter what, we’re making history. Democratic turnout is consistently setting records. The California primary was the biggest in state history. San Francisco and Oakland both ran out of ballots. The same was true in other states, and it will be true in the remaining primaries. Books will be written about this primary, and every presidential campaign from now on will emulate whichever campaign succeeds. As someone said tonight, “we are the ones we have been waiting for.”