The Voltage Gate

I blogged about a study of tropical dry forests in southern Madagascar a while back where the researchers found that the rates of deforestation had dropped in recent years. The challenge was to find out exactly why.

Ecologists studying deforestation in the Amazon may have a similar challenge. The Brazilian government is claiming that new legislation and increased policing of their portion of the forest has reduced the harvest by 25 percent.

They're right about one thing. Deforestation is at its lowest since they started recording rates - only 14,000 kilometers cut down between 2005 and 2006. Only.

But leave it to a scientist to ruin a good PR ploy:

"Despite the good news, however, most observers agree that low prices for beef and soy exports, and the strong Brazilian currency, have also played a major role in reducing Amazon deforestation," William F. Laurance, a scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and a widely recognized expert on deforestation in the Amazon, told mongabay.com. "The big concern is that rates of forest loss may well rise again once the Brazilian currency falls, or commodity prices increase, either of which would make beef and soy exports more competitive and thereby increase pressures on surviving forests."

It's a similar analysis to the study in Madagascar, as I summarized before:

The funny thing about this study is its implications. Sure, there is legislation and belief systems that protect the forests from overuse in some areas, but much of the forests are intact because of neglect. There's little rain, so farming is not viable. The pressures decline because people are not invading as often as they once did.

While legislative factors may play a role, it seems like the financial worth of the land will ultimately decide what becomes of it. Let's hope, for the time being, that it remains costly to level forest.

Mongabay has some nice historical charts of deforestation rates (and soybean production) in the Amazon.