William M. Connolley
stoat
Posts by this author
May 1, 2007
Who is the person that James "we're all going to die" Lovelock most admires? For the surprising answer, see Who are the brains of Britain? in the Indescribablyoverhyped.
April 30, 2007
Thanks to HD, who spotted that K has either fabricated or mistranscribed a comment by Broecker. K writes: In a recent paper "Will our ride into the greenhouse future be a smooth one?" GSA Today (2007), Prof. Wallace Broecker, recipient of the 2006 Craaford Prize (Sweden) succinctly summarizes the…
April 30, 2007
Unless I haven't been paying attention, the mighty Madhav Khandekar's "Questioning the Global Warming Science: An Annotated bibliography of recent peer-reviewed papers" has been met with total indifference. Until now... Its supposed (I think) to be a sort of Peiser-done-properly.
He saith: "a…
April 27, 2007
Prompted by the proofs of my review of AIT for Met Apps (oh, the fame!) I looked at the site again and found The Science. What they list there is very thin and with no useful links. I would have hoped for something better.
Anyway, their first point is "The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has…
April 25, 2007
Just when you thought the Great Global Warming Swindle rubbish had died down, Bob Ward has to go and stir things up again. So it gets into the Grauniad and the Scotsman too.
Predictably enough, the scientists talk about the science; and Durkin avoids this to talk about gagging. A classic case of…
April 24, 2007
While I still have a possible bet in the pipeline, Brian Schmidt now has a real bet lined up for a total of $6-$9k. Personally I think that 0.15 oC/decade is more likely than not, but that less is a realistic possiblity given natural variablity. So while its good from an expected return view it…
April 23, 2007
So says The Vancouver Sun (thanks to DR). In principle it would be a good idea: show the two together, note where they disagree, and go off to find what the actual data says. Which would rapidly show up how TGGWS has faked is graphs (I wonder which version is on the DVD?). However... how likely is…
April 23, 2007
Having been away for the past two weeks i've missed most of the exciting "Framing Science" stuff. I feel most sympathetic to the PZ view... In that addressing your message to your audience seems fairly obvious. But I rather like this from the globalchange mailing list:
> ...how does a field of…
April 21, 2007
I've just listened to that Jeffrey Sachs, the international economist, giving the 2007 Reith Lecture called "Bursting At The Seams". I was only half listening but woke up when he said:
Now like the ozone crisis, public awareness has been the second step. For a long time climate change was discussed…
April 19, 2007
Thin day today, and anyway my plane leaves at half five. Some friends are off to see Mozarts grave but I opt for a sit in the cafe in front of th Dom. The pic follows in the tradiation established last year and shows Me relfected in Something; in this case the entrance to the Albertina. Which is…
April 18, 2007
Rowan Sutton: on the amplification of warming over land. That the land warms more than the oceans is well know; but as RS points out the *why* is somewhat less well known. I would have said, unthinkingly, its because of the ocean heat capacity. But... you get the same effect (or similar) in…
April 17, 2007
A quiet day today (just as well after dinner and drinks last night with reprobate Jeff Ridley and somewhat more respectable John Turner). A bit of ice core stuff in the morning - using d-c-13 to understand glacial methane sources; trying to understand the 41kyr/100kyr switch in ice age cycles.
Pic…
April 17, 2007
RP Sr has been pushing his favourite climate change metric - ocean temperatures - and hyping one paper - Lyman et al, that appeared to show a cooling in that metric. It seemed to me rather imprudent to do this based on one untested paper; now unexpected support comes from Lyman et al themselves who…
April 17, 2007
Its EGU time again. Monday was a bit of a blur (technically I got to my hotel on monday, about half past midnight. Travelling Air Austria is a lot more pleasant than RyanAir, though).
Tuesday was better, partly because I gave up on the stupid "personal programme" stuff the site lets you build on-…
April 13, 2007
I'm back from hols. Sorry for the interruption in service.
Can I remind people that if you want to post attacks on other bloggers, the place to do it is their blog or yours not here? I've been a bit lax about this but in future such stuff will be deleted
April 5, 2007
10Be evidence for the Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic reversal in the EPICA Dome C ice core slipped by me when it was published last year (Nature 444, 82-84 (2 November 2006)). If they are correct, then its nice for the ice core folk because it provides an absolute tie-point into the marine records.…
April 4, 2007
"The warming of other solar bodies has been seized upon by climate sceptics; but oh how wrong they are, says Oliver Morton". But then he is writing in that dodgy rag Nature, so what does he know? "If the shooting of fish in barrels offends you, look away. The publication this week of a Nature paper…
April 2, 2007
Court Rebukes Administration in Global Warming Case says the NYT (thanks to J), and its April the 2nd not first so I guess we can trust them.
In a vain attempt to blog this before the usual suspects do, I haven't bothered to more than skim the report of the decision. But it looks interesting... "In…
April 1, 2007
Nature has Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years (subs req, of course). Its interesting for two reasons: firstly as yet another way of getting the same range for climate sensitivity (they get 2.8 oC as a best guess). And secondly as an antidote to the…
April 1, 2007
CarbonTracker is cute (though poss not as much as CarboTracker, which google suggested I might have meant. I wonder how long the explicit "What does CarbonTracker tell us? North America is a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. The natural uptake of CO2 that occurs mostly East of the Rocky Mountains…
March 28, 2007
Following my previous post there has been discussion in the comments on "which graph to believe". Sadly this becomes ideological, for some. I think the major point is that the HPS '97 graph (the one here) just isn't used anymore by anyone, except the septics who want to see a MWP. The graph has…
March 24, 2007
In 1998, there appears Climate Change Record in Subsurface Temperatures: A Global Perspective (Science 9 October 1998: 279-281) (subs req: sorry; abstract probably free) by Henry N. Pollack, Shaopeng Huang, Po-Yu Shen. The take-home message from that paper is pretty much the graph from http://www.…
March 21, 2007
Today Broon delivered the 2007 budget. Listening to the news, it seems like mostly a nullity: just about everyone has had some taxes raised and others lowered (though we may gain a few hundred from tax changes). Fiddling because you need to be seen to be doing something; and aimed more at looking…
March 20, 2007
I have an "opinion piece" in Scitizen. Its called... "Lack of Errors in the IPCC Statement for Policymakers"... :-)
March 14, 2007
I have a guest post over at Ellee Seymour's blog. Its an attempt at explaining TGGWS for more political type folks.
Meanwhile The Independent has an article on the faked graphs; sadly the online version hasn't got the pix.
March 13, 2007
TGGWS was rebroadcast on Monday. I didn't see it, but B did, and his eagle eyes spotted at least one figure that has changed: see if you can see the differences (LHS:new; RHS:old):
Yes, thats right: they have put it onto the proper time scale; removed the attribution; and deleted the arrows on…
March 13, 2007
OK, so we're back to the question of whether T leads CO2 in the ice cores, the skepics favourite talking point. The std.answer is "OK, so there is a lead (maybe) but..." (Stoat passim). The "but" is a good enough answer, and I suspect most people skip over the (maybe). But its important, because…
March 12, 2007
Guest posting by (or rather, ripped from) Eric Wolff.
It is indeed a very fundamental question about whether the CO2 leads or lags the temperature. If there was somewhere in the ice core record where CO2 increases and temperature does not, then our understanding of the greenhouse effect must be…