earth observatory

Tuesday Tidbits: EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, Yasur, mud on Mars and more

eklemetti — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:12:24 +0000

Tuesday Tidbits: EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, Yasur, mud on Mars and more

Finally, a chance to catch up a bit ... !

Yasur erupting in May of 2010.

Some news from the world of volcanoes:

The BBC has a series of videos one the fallout from the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption - including a look at the area around the volcano and how the economy has been affected by the eruption. However, things seem pretty quiet at the summit of the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull summit where snow can begun to settle without melting - and the Icelandic Met Office appears to think that the eruption is more or less (but not officially) over. And take this press release as you will, but a recent study by a UK moving company (UniBaggage.com) claims that parents moving their children off to university each fall release twice as much CO₂ than the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption.
Most people think of volcanoes being bad for the economy, but in places like Vanuatu, volcanoes are vital to the local economy, thanks to a consistently active volcano. Yasur on Tanna Island is visited by tourists regularly - along with providing a source for fertile soil. The description of the visits are a bit, well, harrowing, but those are the risks if you're going to visit an erupting volcano.
There were some great new shots from space from the NASA Earth Observatory of two active volcanoes. The first is an image of the intensified activity at Sakurajima in Japan - complete with an impressive ash plume and ~~a pyroclastic flow heading to the south~~ steam-and-ash plume from a lower vent on the south flank. The second is an image of the new dome complex on Chaiten in Chile - and it looks pretty calm compared to when it started back in 2008 (when this blog got its start too). However, this is still a lot of the area covered with what looks like fresh ash, so the domes continue to intermittently coat the area with ash.
There was also an article on MSNBC that wasn't about magmatic volcanoes, but rather mud volcanoes ... on Mars no less. The region on the northern hemisphere called Acidalia Planitia appears to have a high concentration of features that look like terrestrial mud volcanoes. The article in Icarus suggests that there are potentially 40,000 mud volcanoes in the area that likely formed in early Amazonian times on Mars (over 1 billion years ago).

eklemetti Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:12

The pic of Sakurajima may be mislabeled. The ash plume looks like it is emerging from the main crater while the so-called "pyroclastic flow" looks to me like steam emerging from the smaller Showa crater. That is my impression anyway.

It's interesting the fact that ChaitÃ©n is covered by snow, indicating a cooling of the dome. In the OVDAS site, Caldera camera (frozen for a long time), you can see the base of the dome with snow.

@Guillermo
Before the eruption, did ChaitÃ©n show a perennial icecap, or it just forms in winter (when not erupting)? Could melting mean an eruption at sight?

MÃla's cams showing a significant steam plume for the first time in days. Could that be related to recent EQ activity?
Wednesday
25.08.201003:32:2163.694-19.5581.1 km2.190.014.2 km WNW of BÃ¡sar
Wednesday
25.08.201003:32:2063.639-19.3661.1 km1.690.025.7 km W of GoÃ°abunga

just checked the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli cams. FLIR is back in action, and yes there is a steam plume again.

@Alastair:
FLIR is back, I forgot to mention. Have you tried the cam from Ãorvaldseyri? Contrast is now too sharp, but earlier you could neatly see the rising plume. Maybe the crater lake is boiling now.

All this recurring steaming would suggest (to me anyway) that water is not just sitting in the crater bowl but penetrates deeper and deeper into the mountain. Her next eruption could prove to be, erm..., "interesting".

Hello

After the strong earthquakes in recent days, the Galeras volcano erupted this morning in Columbia.

http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/P%C3%A1gina_Principal

Thanks, @Sherine:
I got this from El tiempo, Colombia:
"The eruptive event occurred in the early hours of Wednesday, after which the alert level was raised from orange to red indicating that another eruption could be recorded in minutes, therefore she reiterated the call for residents to attend to shelters. According to Dr. Martha Calvache, deputy director of Ingeominas, the incident happened around 4:00 am and the organization and the state is monitoring the volcano.
The signal of the Galeras has lasted for nearly an hour, one of the largest that have occurred in the area, as added Calvache."
www.eltiempo.com

They say that although weather conditions at the site are good, yet they don't know the kind of material extruded from the volcano.
www.elespectador.com

#8 Link for the Galeras web cam:
http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/Imagen_en_l%C3%ADnea

Thanks, @Renato for the link

I found another interesting link

http://www.vulkaner.no/v/volcan/galeras-e.html

I get the feeling that Galeras could turn nasty since the residents flat out refuse to go to shelters with the words "nothing will ever happen"...

Erik just opened a thread for Galeras. I'll paste your comments over there.

Light from the moon makes the steam plume visible during the night tonight.

April 18 photos of Eyja. I found while looking for photos of glacier Ok. The photographer just happened to be on the spot, shooting clothing company ads. Is the second photo (looking down into the snow-coated cone) a photo of Eyja.?
http://www.partytow.com/e/?p=7922

Hello
Last news from Galeras, but I do not see this report on the site Ingeominas :
August 26th, 2010
This morning the alert-level was reduced to ORANGE.
Seismic activity went on for about 12 hours after the eruptive at 4 AM local time, but intensity
was redused during the day. However, another seismic event happended again late afternoon, similar
to the one at 4 AM. Ashfall is reported within 30 km from the crater, and there are possiblilities
that a new crater has opened up. Up to 3.000 tonns sulfur dioxide up to 400m above the top was partly
visible duringthe day. Of the 8.000 inhabitants to be evacuated, most of them refuse to live their homes
so far. Magma is still floating near the opening, and therefore reason to be prepared for new intensity.
Source : http://www.vulkaner.no/v/volcan/galeras-e.html

I read this at RÃV News, but not quite sure of what it means:
"New cracks were found in some of Sprengisandur up, but they are believed to have formed in the spring. PÃ¡ll Einarsson, mineral physicists believe cracked delayed by attacks by the eruption under VatnajÃ¶kull GjÃ¡lp in 1996. " (Google translated)
http://www.ruv.is/frettaskyringar/innlendar-frettir/nyjar-sprungur-a-sp…

Two of the Mila cams are down now, so I went exploring and found that Weather Underground has a satellite view that might be useful, if Eyja. becomes active again. I had to zoom and drag the map to find the glacier with Eyja.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=64.12999725&lon=-21.89999962…

Below the map is a slider that will give you animation if moved to the right, for more frames. Unfortunately, I didn't think of using this site during the eruption, and I'm not sure how useful it would be. I do use the radar images when a storm is predicted for my location, to see how fast it's approaching. The image refreshes perhaps twice an hour.

Looking at Wunderground for Catania Italy, I can see many small craters after zooming and dragging to Mt. Etna. Some craters have black around them (ash?).
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=37.47000122&lon=15.05000019&…

Erik: Just saw the Nasa image of Chaiten, too bad the Chilean webcam has been inoperative since 6/20. I started reading about volcanoes when your blog started (and Chaiten erupted). Congrats on the great work.

I love your site lol

Wednesday Whatzits: Mixing it up at Hood, alert lowered at Taal and plumes over Vanuatu

eklemetti — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 02:09:35 +0000

Wednesday Whatzits: Mixing it up at Hood, alert lowered at Taal and plumes over Vanuatu

Mt. Hood in Oregon, taken August 2008. Image by Erik Klemetti. Click on the image to see a larger version.

Quick news!

I'm not going to go into too much depth right now about the recent study published in Nature Geoscience on Mt. Hood in Oregon - I plan to talk about it more in a few weeks. Why is that? Well, the lead investigator on the study, Dr. Adam Kent of Oregon State University, is a friend of mine (and occasional Eruptions commenter) so I plan to get the details from him before posting. I was also peripherally associated with some of this work - mostly in the field acting as a pack mule and offering my witty observations. Nevertheless, the long-and-short is that magma mixing seems to be a strong control on eruptions at Mt. Hood, where mixing of two different magmas (one felsic, one mafic) can trigger an eruption. This mixing could be only weeks before the eruption, suggesting short time intervals between the trigger of an eruption and the eruption itself. Interestingly, Mt. Hood seems to play by its own rules in this respect relative to what we know about how other Cascade volcanoes behave.
Lava continues to flow from Kilauea into the area around Kalapana, although it has slowed. Only two breakouts were noted near Kalapana on August 1, suggesting that less lava is flowing. However, lava continues to reach the ocean to the southwest of Kalapana.
PHIVOLCS lowered the alert status at Taal to level one after signs of eruption waned, with only 5 earthquakes over the last 3 weeks. However, the restrictions for tourists remain in place for the time being as new measures are created, especially when it comes to approached the main crater. At the crater, steam explosions can still happen unexpectedly and the concentrations of volcanic gases can be dangerous.
The NASA Earth Observatory posted an image of the plumes from Ambrym and Gaua in Vanuatu. You can see the thin, wispy plumes of mostly steam and volcanic gases (which possibly some very minor ash) drifting to the northwest.

eklemetti Tue, 08/03/2010 - 22:09

So if there is an earthquake swarm at Mt Hood it would be best to take notice earlier rather than later.

Here is the abstract of an interesting paper. I wonder if the full paper gives any specific info on plate tectonic differences below Mt. Hood? (From mantleplumes.org)

Xue, Mei; Allen, R.M., Mantle structure beneath the western United States and its implications for convection processes, J. Geophys. Res., 115, No. B7, B07303, 2010.

@2: No, it's a 'Big Picture' type article. Better reads on the cold mantle down-welling process under Western US:

Dripping 'Blob' Under Western U.S.: A Hidden Drip, Drip, Drip Beneath Earth's Surface. Science Daily May 2009

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090526171813.htm

John D. West, Matthew J. Fouch, Jeffrey B. Roth, Linda T. Elkins-Tanton. Vertical mantle flow associated with a lithospheric drip beeath the Great Basin. Nature Geoscience 2, 439 - 444 (2009) DOI: 10.1038/ngeo526
(full paper below)
www.iris.edu/hq/esreg/priv/download_file/127

Western USA mantle structure and its implications for mantle convection processes. (same authors as paper cited by Pyromancer)

seismo.berkeley.edu/annual_report/ar07_08/node14.html

"Nevertheless, the long-and-short is that magma mixing seems to be a strong control on eruptions at Mt. Hood, where mixing of two different magmas (one felsic, one magma)"

I am assuming you meant one felsic, one mafic...or did you mean that a felsic magma can interact with any other type to trigger an eruption?

@VolcanoMan - Oops, thanks for catching that. It was supposed to say "mafic". Will fix it now.

TJÃRNES FZ:

I have been waiting for someone with a bit of knowledge to write about the long series of quakes we have been seeing at TFZ (about 10 km north of GrimsÃ¶y).
It has after all been going on for more then 2 weeks now without letting up.
The action is not situated at the site of the 1868 underwater eruption, it is to the nort-west to it. Lurking did a nice picture of it a week ago that seemed to show that it was a pipe pattern to the quakes.

So, anybody with a take on this? Is it an eruption, or a what?

Looking forward to any answer.

Hey that's an amazing insight on the subject, thanks so much! never heard it more clear.

A sense of humor... is needed armor. Joy in one's heart and some laughter on one's lips is a sign that the person down deep has a pretty good grasp of life.

Just texted my mom to see if she wanted to get pedis after work. It was only after I sent it that I realized iPhone corrected 'pedis' to 'penis'. I asked my mom if she wanted penis after work. Brilliant.

I hope that guy that "wants to be a billionaire" makes $999,999,999.00 and then gets hit by a bus

You must never promote a journey of revenge without giving a lunatic : Confucius

Things you mentioned made . Nevertheless, think about this, what happens if you offered a little more? I mean, I do not want to teach the way to write your site, but if you actually added something which can grab people's focus? Simply like a video or a graphic or few for getting viewers psyched about what you are talking about.

Very useful article. Myself and my neighbor were getting ready to do a little study regarding that. We bought a helpful guide on that issue by our own neighborhood library and many publications are not as descriptive as your content. I am very thankful to discover such info which I was searching for a long time.

Climate, volcanism and the Andes

eklemetti — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 02:28:52 +0000

Climate, volcanism and the Andes

The northern Chilean and southern Peruvian Andes are full of volcanoes that look stunning - I mean, jaw-dropping details of volcanism litter the landscape. The reason for this is two fold: (1) there is an awful lot of volcanism in the northern Chilean/southern Peruvian Andes (as known as the Central Volcanic Zone) - and has been that way for over 10 million years and (2) it has also been very, very dry in the area (most of which is known as the Altiplano-Puna Plateau) for at least a few millions years as well - it is the home of the Atacama Desert! So, this means you get lots of volcanic eruptions that don't have to face the rigors of weathering - so the stunning volcanic landforms are preserved. Let us look at an example of this:

Volcano #1: North Sister, central Oregon Cascades

Click on the image to see a larger version.

Dissected with lava flow and pyroclastic deposit layering along with magmatic dikes exposed. The original flow features are rarely preserved and the volcano's shape is dictated by glacial erosion. In other words: Beat the heck up.

Volcano #2: Volcan Aucanquilcha, northern Chilean Andes

Click on the image to see a larger version.

I like to trot Aucanquilcha out for many reasons, but here, notice how you can still seem many of the flow features, especially in the middle - with levees and pressure ridges on the dacite flows. Most of the dacite lava flows are preserved with little erosion to expose the innards of the volcano

Now, lets guess how old these edifices are. Any ideas?
Well, according to work by Mariek Schmidt, the oldest observed lava flows on North Sister are ~400,000 years old, with some volcanic activity as recently as 55,000 years ago - in other words, pretty young, geologically speaking.

Aucanquilcha, on the other hand, has been dated by, well, me, and the youngest flows are potentially ~200,000 years old.There are some features that suggest a few younger than that, but something like 90% of the volcano was constructed between 1.05 million and 600,000 years ago, including those lava flows in the center of the image. So, most of Aucanquilcha was built before North Sister was even started - and North Sister looks much older!

This is (mostly) all thanks to the very different climates of the Cascades versus the northern Chilean and southern Pervuian Andes. Whereas North Sister has had to survive glaciations, wet climates, vegetation, snow and more, Aucanquilcha has mostly lived in a very dry climate, with some minor snow, very minor evidence of glaciation and little precipitation in the form of rain over its history. So, these gorgeous features are preserved at Aucanquilcha, while at North Sister, we get to examine the insides of the volcano - both equally fascinating things to study.

So, why bring this up now? Well, the NASA Earth Observatory posted an image of Sabancaya in the southern Peruvian Andes - and boy, is it dazzling. The lava flows on the volcano look like they might have erupted yesterday, however, a majority of the activity at Sabancaya didn't happen yesterday (shockingly) - the youngest lava flow dated from Sabancaya is ~5,400 years old. However, the volcano did experience almost constant explosive eruptions between 1990 and 1998 - with small explosions as recently as 2003 - all vulcanian and phreatomagmatic (if you can believe that in the high Andes). The name of the volcano does mean "tongue of fire" in Quechua, which implies that the natives around the volcano had experienced eruptions as well. The lava flows that make up most of the edifice do appear to by Holocene or older, but again, the climate of this area of the Andes has preserved them stunningly, with very obvious levees on the sides of the flow - especially noticeable on the lava on the top center (labeled "lava flow") and pressure ridges on top of the flow - see the flows directly to the right of the summit. These sorts of images make me pine for the Andes and the ability to see volcanoes preserved like this, although the rarified air of the Altiplano might make up for the lack of thickets.

eklemetti Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:28

wonderful post Erik!

Renato posted a link the other day to absolutely stunning photography from the Atacama desert.

http://www.atacamaphoto.com/atacama/atacama-1.htm

Highly recommended.

The power of our favorites.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1297706/Endgame-Pictu…

off topic - What's with all the deep earthquakes (500+km depth) in the Phillipines? Does the Asian continental plate go down that far? I thought continental plate thicknesses were only 70 - 100 km thick. Can any geologists hazard a guess as to what's happening there?

@ Chris #4

someone posted a link to this at the weekend:

http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2010/07/fridayish-focal-mechanis…

This will give you a good summary of what's happening. Go through the last couple of threads here too. There's been some good discussion on it.

Erik,
Somebody should pull the carpet from under that "Neodymium Magnets" creature; it's spamming all over...

As Bruce says, wonderful post Eric! I'll latch onto the linguistic aspect of volcano names: The native name for Sabancaya Volcano, translated as "tongue of fire" coupled with the visual appearance and the photographic evidence of thick dacite lava flows, possibly hundreds of metres thick (recalling your previous topic on such flows), would suggest the natives actually saw such a flow, hence the "toungue of fire" (coming out of the mouth of the volcano). Do you know if there has been any research of (native) names for volcanoes from a linguistic point of view?

I would expect the first ojection to such an interpretation to be that the flows are much too old to have been seen and be remembered by humans. Against that I would put forward suggestions made that our legends of giants, trolls and dragons etc have foundations in reality: Giants - (Homo) Gigantopitheucs c 1,000,000 - 300,000BP up to 3m tall and 500+ kg (1000+ lb). Trolls - Homo Sapiens Neanderthalensis, troglodytes extinct c.30,000 BP. Dragons - the dinosaur bone field intersected by an ancient Bedouin trade route through the Sahara, the stories therof brought to us by merchants.

If there is a connection between the native name and the dacite flows, the implications thereof are very interesting no matter which explanation you prefer.

Henrik: I've thought of a couple of other examples (not from the Andes, though

There's the "other Merapi" in Java -part of the Ijen complex
Merapi means fire/fiery red, obvious for the famous active one...but the 'other' Merapi has no historic eruptions. Its name however surely indicates activity since the Javanese civilisation got started. And famously there's Mont Pelee, "Bald Mountain". Unvegetated when named, in an area where eruption products are heavily overgrown within a few decades; obviously erupted only a few years before the French settlers arrived (and had a Carib Indian name meaning 'fire mountain')

@Dennis, I noticed some comments at the bottom of the report about Gary's house going up. The first one was obviously somebody who doesn't understand volcanoes at all. Check it out. I had to laugh a bit and was tempted to set him straight, but decided against it. He doesn't get it that at the moment, there isn't any ash with this.

>I would expect the first ojection to such an interpretation to be that the flows are much too old to have been seen and be remembered by humans.

Huh?? You're confusing your volcanoes.

Sabancaya is an andesite/dacitic stratovolcano that has recent (1350, 1695, 1750, 1784, 1986 (start of fumerolic emissions), 1990-1998, 2000, 2003) and is clearly historically active.

>Until 1990, much of the volcano was hidden from view by a permanent ice field. As a consequence of ash induced melting this ice has now largely been removed.

ANALYSIS OF SABANCAYA VOLCANO, SOUTHERN PERU USING
RADARSAT AND LANDSAT TM DATA.

Aucanquilcha is the dormant Pleistocene-era dacite volcano whose eruption would not have been witnessed by humans.

Erik, interesting article. It really shows what happenes according to what the enviornment does to volcanoes and mountains in general. Thanks for posting the contrasts. There is so much to study and so little time. :-D

Hihi Diane, didnt read the comments before, funny thing :), but thanks for the heads up,

The pictures speaks for itself, that was my intention.

But another question, how much energy was revealed in the last week with all these quakes? there was this big swarm in Alaska and now this strong deep quakes (3x7) must be a small rise in intensity over the week.

I quite agree Mike. If we credit the idea that there is some logic behind human name-giving of geographic features, conclusions such as yours seem inescapable. That said, there are examples where the logic isn't straightforward such as with Himmelsbjerg, "Heaven's Mountain", the highest hill of Denmark - which struggles to top 600 ft or thereabouts.

Passerby, thank you. In my excitement, I did indeed confuse the two as you correctly point out. Unfortunately (for me that is), I cannot claim that Kultsi hacked the Mulakot site as an excuse. ;) ;)

I must have gotten my brain baked in the sun when sailing. I cannot for my life find the tremor-plots and gps-stationspage for TFZ (TjÃ¶rnes Fracture Zombie).
I wanted to go into the depth with it since it is in the habit of producing nice 3+ quakes nowadays. Anyone with a working brain or a good link-archive..?
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/tjornes-large/

Would be nice with a new Island next to Iceland;)
(I know, if wishes was horses)

@Dennis #11 yeah, that one guy just doesn't get it. And the pictures do speak for themselves.

As for the recent quake activity, a lot of energy was released in a lot of areas. The Alutians have the Pacific plate diving under them and there was a lot of energy released there as well as the Phillipines. My guess is the energy release from the subduction in the Phillipines was more than the Alaskan quakes. The scale is logrithmic and each magnitude from 1 on up is 31 times stronger than the before it. In other words, a mag of 2 is 31 times stronger than a mag 1. I wouldn't even want to try to guess at the TNT levels here. I bet someone here has a very good idea and could calculate it. That would be an interesting project. NOT one for me. LOL

OT question: what is the spam thing that has been mentioned? Not that I want to see it, I just want to avoid it! Is it that little thingy at the bottom right of the page?

@Lurking et al:

I just want to make yet another comment on the 60+ uplift largish pent-up energy-potential thingy that I otherwise answered in the former thread.

Even if Iceland burst out in a 5400 cubik-kilometre lava eruption it would still be small compared to the Siberian Trap (1 million cubics) and Deccan Trap (0,5 megacubics).
Nice with something that makes the coveted Yellowstone supervolcano look like a pile of flubber being eaten by a Graboid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_Traps (I know it is wiki, I am schnappsed up and lazy)

The spam was removed.

Tjornes Transform data
GPS: The station at Ãrholt is located on the TjÃ¶rnes peninsula in North Iceland, between the HÃºsavÃk-Flatey transform zone and the GrÃmsey fracture zone.

Data not available.

Grimsey tremor plot
hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/gri.gif

Flatey tremor plot
hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/fla.gif

Others:
Hedinshofdi tremor plot
hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/hed.gif

Brettingsstadir tremor plot
hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/bre.gif

Turrialba may have some ash in it plume.

http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/videoturri.html

okay i knew it was logarithmic calced but had forgotten how big that is :)
Im exiting to see what will happen, we got some eruptions true, but all this noise for this ? sorry im not horny for something devastating just curious how nearly the whole earth is on rumble mode and its not only because we now have the tech to know whats going on around the world.
The whole Tech is wonderful but it also make you think (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=55023).
But thanks to this blog for some great answered about the deep quakes.

The Siberian and Eimeran (China) flood basalts date to 250 MYA and the Deccan Traps to 60-68 MYA.

The Columbia Flood Basalt group date contemporaneously with the Yellowstone hotspot and Afar Flood Basalt Event, 15-18 MYA. These date from near the end of the Antarctic Sheet interglacial period. The start of the most recent Antarctic Sheet reformation corresponds roughly to major climate cooling and drying, catalyzing the dessication of the Atacama, Saharan and Namib regions.

Large igneous province formation is not random; most of it occurred long ago during major continental mass flux. rearrangements. Two spots, Iceland and Afar region, hold potential for minor flood eruptions.

Doubtful there would be anything like a major basalt flood event in the near future.

Henrik: I think that the 600-foot 'Heaven's Mountain' shows that the Danes have a finely-tuned sense of irony :o)

Dasnowskier 18: Saw the dark plume for a minute or so, then darkness obscured everything. Is it the result of ash production: or just a pretty lousy weather system at the moment?

@Passerby, just finished the Rusov, Vaschenko et al paper which I had to read twice and am rather astounded by a couple of things. First the basic rigid coating soft substrate (RCSS) concept makes sense intuitively and places the focus on deeper convection currents in the asthenosphere. As I understand it, the lithosphere is merely along for the ride. That said, the whole hypothesis is based upon compressive deformation of a coupled lithosphere/upper mantle complex (i.e. slab) as it ploughs into the transition zone between upper mantle and lower mantle. If this is right, the observed pattern in the frequency of deep quakes at intervals of 50 km would be evidence that the transition zone must indeed mark a hard boundary forming one end of the deformation of the lithosphere with subduction at the surface marking the other, with the crumpling taking a sinusoidal shape determined by (if I understood correctly) the thickness and relative strength of the lithosphere.

What really surprises me is the depth distribution charts they derived from NEIC data (Fig 5) with pronounced spikes at these 50 km intervals. That data looks too good to be true and I wonder why nobody ever commented on it before. If Lurking or any other whizz at plotting this stuff is perhaps interested I'd like to see if the USGS data corroborates this pattern. (y axis: frequency of deep quakes, x axis depth for the period 1973 to 2009 or similar).

Definitely very interesting stuff!

18 & 21 - I noticed that Turrialba plume has been well defined over the last few days. Currently obscured by cloud. Visibility is often poor, but I haven't worked out if that is due to cloud as today, or to wind direction pushing plume towards webcam when there tends to be a darker colour of cloud.

Bruce, the model is for bending stress modulus determination of a stiff laminate-softer body system (2 layers). You cannot disregard the soft layer. From the paper:

>From Fig. 5 follows that this distribution has clearly
defined periodical fine discrete structure with period L=50 km.

That's the minimal discrete structure within the deforming body.

Sometimes it's determined by the measurement method physics (lower boundary of physical measurement possible) and sometimes you see this type of repeating structural unit in datasets from boundary error / confidence interval estimates (central value +/- some #, the smallest interval that can be reliably assessed).

Note also the smearing of EQ data near the floor of the lower mantle (550-700Km). I would guess that is a second major bending deformation of a semi-stiff body that still has some cohesiveness, entering into a looping circuit of purported large circulation patterns - a physical explanation. However, it may also reflect differences in material chemistry (melt temperature, crystalline properties) of various subducting crust/lithosphere combinations.

We still see a tight clustering of Lurkings plotted EQ data centered about 600 klicks, which made me a very happy person because it fit the sensible/intuitive multilayer bending model.

Very tidy approach to understanding deep focus earthquakes.

I think now the dark color of the plume was due to bad weather as stated by mike don.
The glow in the predawn has been very strong at times leading me to think magma is still pushing to the surface. This could get interesting but is taking its own sweet time in human terms

P.S. A clear shot of the plume now shows it is very vigorous but doubtful that is is ash laden....at this time.
http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/videoturri.html

@Dennis and all 'yall.

A question of power came up regarding the Moro Gulf quakes and the Alaskan quakes. Fortunately, I was able to grab the data before it evaporated to the ephemeral world of the archives...

Eh... long day.

Here ya go, Moro Gulf and Fox Islands quakes as discrete power plots... with a couple of notable nuclear explosions for comparison.

http://i25.tinypic.com/2qiocxw.png

Continuing our discussion of the Mechanism of Deep Focus EQs paper.

L = cracking (stress-strain release) minimum length. For energy release equal to the earthquakes ranging from 3.9 to 5.3, L=50 and for all larger quakes > 5.4, L=100.

Indeed, if we look at Figs 5 and 6, the fine shape of the curve describing the plotted EQs with depth (regardless of magnitude) has has fine structure that changes about every 100km, with a clear secondary structure emerging for smaller energy earthquakes at 50Km (those spikes).

The characteristic folding length is 200km for both magnitude sets.

The authors don't say much about Fig 5, but I think we will.

We're very much interested to see when the L=50 signal spikes are prominent and when they are minimal in the curves for various time periods.

What do you see for this set of graphs that stands out?

Something is interesting about the time period after 1992 through 2002, a data period with a strong L=50 signal. The fine structure signal weakens from 2003-04 and diminishes in 2005-06, and is very low level in 2007-08.

That means the L=100 predominates, we have much more energy in the deep focus earthquakes in the past few years.

So now we will do a bit of razzle dazzle, for our paper's authors, who must have missed this next article. Not only does this Nature article support our Russkie model and our plotted data of Philippine EQs (USGS dataset) with actual report of a slab discovered located at deep depth, the study results affords the same characteristic folded length, lambda, value of 200 km.

The folded length of the slab is also equal to the depth of D Region, the bottom of the mantle, which is characterized by a change in crystalline phase change of the folded slab. (There is a world of science in that last sentence, too much detail to go into here.)

This news brief and similar graphic in the Nature letter-article provide an excellent graphic of their finding, so you know what we are on about when we talk about characteristic folded length.

The news brief describing the Nature paper:
Giant Slab of Earth's Crust Found Near Core.
Live Science May 2006
www.livescience.com/environment/060517_inside_earth.html

LiveScience's graphic for their news article
www.livescience.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=060…

The letter-article in the journal, Nature May 2006:

Seismic detection of folded, subducted lithosphere at the coreâmantle boundary. Nature 441z:333-336 (18 May 2006) doi:10.1038/nature04757

www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7091/full/nature04757.html

The paper's graphic of the folded 'taffy' slab.
Fig 4. A cold buckled subducted slab (blue) in the lowermost mantle may account for the thermal structure that results in a step in the perovskite/post-perovskite phase transition.
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7091/fig_tab/nature04757_F4.html

*satisfied sigh*

Necessary explanatory graphics of the earths interior, for the D" layer at the deep mantle-core interface:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantle_(geology)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coreâmantle_boundary

eyjaf is sending a modest plume skyward and it appears as if there is a reflected red glow in it
this could well be a anomaly in the cams reaction to the low light or---

Those last two links... are the levels authoritative?

If so I may incorporate those levels in a quake plot or two.

#30 @Yes, Lady E is showing a vigorous steam plume. But I don't see the red glow you mentioned. Couldn't it be a sunrise light trick?
@passerby #28 I think Bruce stout has grasped much on those articles. I'm a slow pupil. Still have to do a lot of my homework. But just keep posting. Cool stuff, indeed.

@passserby (and lurking):

Nice work with the deep quakes folding slab theory! I really think you are on to something. Would be nice with a good provable/refutable prediction hooked onto it. Keap it up!

Just wanted to point out also that I in no way think we will have an event like the Siberian Trap in the near geological future. I just wanted to point out to lurking that Iceland isn't that big on a bigger scale. Sometimes I even wonder if we ever again will due to that the energy has dropped in the system (eg. earth). Even the likelihood of a 5000+ Icelandic flood basalt is rather unlikely I think.

hi all http://www.time/health/article10,8599,2006195,00.html Deep underground, miles of hidden wildfires rage hope you find this link is intresting..

hi all,,again the page appears to be broken that no problem still click on it and scroll down the page and click on to 3 your looking for Time magazine US Edition August 2010 vol 176 no5 click Health and there's the story on the above link @34

@34, leon, this link works: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2006195,00.html That's bad news, "more than 100 fires are burning beneath nine states." Worse: "But geologists say many fires go unreported, driving the actual number of them closer to 200 across 21 states. Most have burned for years, if not decades." Not only are the fires burning up coal reserves uselessly, but they're polluting. A question for geologists: is there no way to put out the fires (or remove the coal)?

@Jane

If you open up the seam so that you can get at it.... you introduce Oxygen.

Fire = Fuel + Oxygen + Heat

More recently that triangle has been updated to include "chain reaction" but the triangle will work for our purposes.

Dumping copious amounts of water will yield CO and other combustible gases... plus you may get a geyser effect, or possibly a small steam explosion.

Either way, you get a liability issue if property or residents in the place that it comes out are harmed or injured.

You can also find another feature at Derweze (the gate) in Turkmenistan.

"While drilling in 1971 geologists accidentally found an underground cavern filled with natural gas. The ground beneath the drilling rig collapsed, leaving a large hole with a diameter of about 70 meters at 40Â°15â²10â³N 58Â°26â²22â³Eï»¿ (The Door to Hell). To avoid poisonous gas discharge, it was decided to burn the gas."

It's ahh... still burning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door_to_hell#The_.22Door_to_Hell.22

This is a topic I've been following for most of the past decade.

Wiki page has a reasonably complete intro to the subject:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_seam_fire

Recent 2010 article on the long burning Centralia PA coal fire and discussion on a new approach, employing technology developed for fighting forest fires with injectable foams:

www.earthmagazine.org/earth/article/33d-7da-5-5

Anupma Prakash's website at the Univ Alaska:
www.gi.alaska.edu/~prakash/coalfires/coalfires.html

Some of her links are out of date.

Sort of a diversion... and something to mull over.

I have long read that the Little Ice Age was the little ice age in part, because of the much increased volcanic activity of the time. I've pretty much accepted that... and saw it as an augmentation of the Maunder and Dalton minimums of the time. Never really had a way to find out one way or the other.

I ran across the Large Holocene Eruption list over at www.volcano.si.edu a few weeks ago, and grumbled at how hard it was to make use of the data other than looking at the columns and reading about the events.

What I have done, is to force the data into a usable form. REMEMBER, that a lot of the volcanic data is from various sources and have date accuracies of up to hundreds of years... the intensity of the eruptions is also prone to wide inaccuracies...and to make it worse, where there was just a Plinian or Caldera forming event noted, it didn't make it into the plot. The VEI info was averaged across 21 events with a central moving point average. This is what I plotted.

Civilization data was picked off of entries in Wikipedia, so take that with a grain of salt. These were place on the plot just to get a frame of reference for what was going on in the world while the average world wide volcanic intensity was at that level.

Enjoy.

http://i32.tinypic.com/f44i8x.png

@Lurking and Passerby, thanks for the links.
These photos show why Darvaza is called The Mouth of Hell. http://johnhbradley.com/pictures2.asp?var=070707darvaza
A coal seam fire in Germany has been burning for more than 400 years, since 1668!

@ Lurking. jaw just dropped. off to kitchen to get salt... what an amazing plot!!

Do you think the downwards slope might be due to a greater number of VEI 4 eruptions getting recorded in the last 1000 years or so when people were around to record them?
Other than that, do you have any ideas why the plot exhibits such a pronounced wave form?

@Lurking: Interesting plot indeed. Thanks once more.

BTW: Have you people noticed that Lady E has been exhibiting an unceasing, robust steam plume these days?
I love this volcano.

Ho-hum. Three years ago, I plotted the entire GVP catalog. Binned the eruptions by VEI. A rather interesting pattern emerges.

What was your point in adding the Middle Eastern and Western civilizations. Leaving out Asia removes....interesting perspective of cause and effect.

No, the volcanoes didn't was not responsible for causing the LIA or the Medieval Warming that proceeded it. But glacial rebound had a hand in pushing eruption probability in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Larger drivers were at work: large, multi-decade to centuries of climate instability by large solar fluctuations with feedback loops in the oceans and large climate ensemble cycles. These were aided and abetted by major volcanic eruptions.

Makers and breakers of empires. Plot human population on your graph.

@Passerby,

"What was your point in adding the Middle Eastern and Western civilizations. Leaving out Asia removes."

Mainly ethnocentrism. There was a significant dynasty change (Xia Dynasty) shortly after Thera... probably associated with that whole "mandate of heaven" thing and a slight conflict with the rising Shang Dynasty.

I concur with the LIA not being in that cause and effect chain, but it didn't help. Mainly I did to plot in order to be able to throw the B/S flag at what I have heard.

Your GVP catalog binning sounds like a really interesting data snag. Is that info online? It sounds like it would have higher resolution than mine.

@bruce stout

"Do you think the downwards slope might be due to a greater number of VEI 4 eruptions getting recorded in the last 1000 years or so when people were around to record them?"

Yes. I strongly believe that. Remember that the older the data is, the more that it's a matter of a geologist out in the field puzzling over the landscape.

Okay... same plot, added global population estimates (from www.census.gov) made it less ethnocentric by adding a few Chinese Dynasties and a rough track of Sumeria / Babylonia.

(Note: Babylon didn't get taken over by Rome, the line just ran into Rome. At the time, the Etruscans were running the show in Rome. The Persians are the ones who took over Babylonia at about this time)

Other than that it's pretty much the same plot.

http://i26.tinypic.com/ru9mk1.png

Good Morning everyone

It's a nice day in southern iceland and you can see a wonderfull steamplume rising up from EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. Looks quite amazing that even after the eruption is over for some time, there is still this steamplume

In order to keep anyone from getting the impression that volcanic activity is much much lower than in the past, here is a plot of the raw data from my last plot. Take note of the increase in sample, and that the relative number of large events isn't that different over time. I'm pretty sure that as the population went up, the number of eruptions that were noticed went up also.

http://i32.tinypic.com/30upwqp.png

.. on this correlation between volcanic activity and population (I think I have mentioned this before) but there have been pretty advanced civilizations living in the Bismarck archipelago since the Lapita cultural complex arrived at about 1600BC. This region is where an awful lot of these VEI 4 or higher eruptions have taken place. This makes me kind of optimistic that humankind is pretty adept at adjusting to the impact of large eruptions.

That's why we have legs.

"...run Forrest!! Run!!"

As primates go... I think we may have a speed/distance advantage.

OT - As a follow up to a previous discussion several months ago, and for those who may be interested. Spacequakes have been discovered, and could potentially contribute to the total energetics of the earth, in however small a manner; there is a lot that is unknown. See http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/27jul_spacequ…

@ 50 :lol: Head for the hills!!!
(think) No wait, don't head for the hills!!!

#50 #51 You guys don't have to worry about quakes. I'm more concerned about the development of Korea crisis and increase of international economical failure that might lead to a period of anarchy/dictatorships. We're back to pre-Holocene times in human History. :(
@Lurking: your plots are great!

@Renato Rio [53]

Well, it's supposed to get worrisome for the US Admin in August, and things are supposed to get really Nasty in Nov. That is, if you follow the alternative fringe. Dunno what, dunno how.

As an antithetical Frank Boman from 2001 Space Odyssey would say "Something Horrible"

@53 & 54:

I guess they are refering to two large loans that will be out-standing during the fall without any chance of the US being able to pay them.
Well, it is not any big news that the US cannot pay it's debts any longer, the US haven't paid mortgages and in many cases interests for quite some time now. Problem is that nobody will give any extensions anylonger, or for that matter, give new credits. So it is time to actually try to get the economy to get into ballance, but the likelyhood of that is slim to say the least.
But it is not as large a problem for the world economy any longer since the US ecnomy is falling in importance. Pretty much the EU together with China and India have taken up the slack by now. But it might not be that fun for those here that are americans...

Heh. The MÃºlakot pic shows a plane in the bushes.

@56: they moved it out of the way to cut the lawn.

@Carl on Economics

"...Pretty much the EU together with China..."

Ummm yeah. Ever check out that PIIGS acronym?

China refuses to pony up and let it's currency float so good luck with that one. My guess we are sitting at a precipice staring strait down at the bottom of Kondratiev cycle 5. Perpetually over extended and bloated to keep the money flowing... never letting the natural economic flow and contractions occur.

So... here we are, hovering right over the pit bottom of where the depression/contraction phase would have started it's upward turn.... but we never traveled gently down that path. The only way to get there now is a near vertical drop.

Yee Haw...

Okay... 3rd version.

Passerby and bruce stout's comments prompted me to rethink that average global VEI number. With the increase in population and expansion of civilization, more eruptions would be noted and recorded. This is evident in the number of events in the rawplot in post [48].

I went back and binned the data at 100 year intervals, summing the VEI and dividing by the number of events. This yields an overall average VEI by century. There is still room for error, but it's gonna be less glaring than the previous versions of this plot.

http://i28.tinypic.com/15ejoyp.png

That's closer to reality. You can double check it by superimposing a transparency copy of the raw data over the last graphic.

dr. erik klemetti.
your blog looks very interesting to us, we are college students chile, you give information from our mountains of the Andes is extremely important and a great pleasure for us.
the information provided in this article you realize their great work and research in relation to volcanology.
Finally we put the following question, Dr klemetti, compared with last earthquake occurred on 27 February in our country, will it have any implications the volcanic activity of the Andes with the seismic activity?
was a pleasure to leave this message, wait for your answer
good bye

Josefina PeÃ±aloza and Andres Rojas
science student teachers Universidad Catolica del Maule, Talca, Chile.

#61 Buenas tardes de Rio a los hermanos en Chile!
@Josefina and Andres: there was much speculation here and in other related blogs over the subject "quakes and volcanic implications" when February EQ occurred in Chile. Right now, in another thread, a similar discussion is taking place on correlations between tectonism and volcanism in the Pacific microplates, maybe it would be interesting if you take a look there, although mechanisms involving Nazca plate subducting under S. America are far easier explained.
We have the example of Puyehue-Cordon Caulle back in the 60s that erupted just after the big Chilean EQ, as well as other volcanoes. So I think (but I'm no expert) that there may be a "help" from an earthquake, if the volcanoes are close to an eruption. But this is still a very debatable matter.
You came to the right place: Dr. Klementii has worked in Chile and is very well acquainted to Chilean volcanism.
I must confess, that, in a way, Chilean volcanoes are "my" volcanoes, since in Brazil we have none, so the subject is of most interest to me (I saw Villarica erupting back in 72). Saludos!

408Wolcott@yahoo.com

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Friday Flotsam: Kilauea continues to flow, volcano tourism worldwide and a refined geologic timescale

eklemetti — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 02:58:36 +0000

Friday Flotsam: Kilauea continues to flow, volcano tourism worldwide and a refined geologic timescale

Tourists hiking next to an active lava flow on Pacaya in Guatemala in 2006.

I'm flying back to Ohio today after a successful few weeks of fieldwork/paper writing. Apparently I have a pile of tomatoes waiting in our garden in Granville ... !

On to news:

To go with the news that lava flows from Kilauea creep ever closer to structures in Kalapana, the NASA Earth Observatory posts its first volcano image in a bit. The shot shows the steam-and-gas plume from the Halema`uma`u Crater in Kilauea's summit caldera. You can also see some video of the lava flows near Kalapana as they move along the road.
Want the latest geologic timescale - at least the one used by the USGS? Well, you can download USGS Fact Sheet 2010-3059, which sets out the latest definitions and corrections for the geologic timescale. It is the first update since 2007, where new fossil correlations and dating of rocks allows for refining of the boundaries between the epochs, ages and periods. It is a must for any true geophile.
Three articles I found recently tackle volcano tourism - the plusses and minuses - in Java (Indonesia), Guatemala and the Congo. The volcanoes in both countries are relatively easy to approach, but are still very dangerous. This is especially true for people trying to visit Pacaya as officials in Guatemala are reporting an increase in seismic activity at the volcano that erupted earlier this year.

eklemetti Thu, 07/22/2010 - 22:58

Considering that the eastern DRC/Rwanda/Uganda area near Nyiragongo has been in effect a war zone for much of the last fifty years. I wonder how many visitors that tour company is expecting?

The volcanoes mentioned are far less dangerous than the risks involved in getting to them - such as the risk of a fatal car or bus crash, or of getting robbed or worse. I remember hiding from gun-toting bandits on Pacaya and then later, at the summit while minor explosions hurled lava bombs above me, feeling that the crater rim was far safer than the base of the cone, where the bandits were firing their pistols directly at fleeing tourists.

To help Iceland cash in on the volcano tourism, I vote we set up a pipeline to the EyafjallajÃ¶kull crater and pump in some smoke generating volatiles. As the sun shines on the smoke column near midnight, add thunder sound effects = Profit.

There is a continued earthquake swarm in Iceland at the Tjornes fracture zone with 2 large quakes of @3.4 and 4.1.

I am curious about how you can tell if this is tectonic or volacanic in origin- which graphs show depth of quakes? Many thanks

Correction - the graph now only shows ONE large quake at 4.1, so perhaps this was an error they corrected.

@ Birger! Ha! failproof!

@ JulesP all the data you need are on another tab on the IMO site here:
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

I'm surprised noone has been up to Lake Eyjafjallajokull
and posted photographs since it's more placid these days.

Not really sure where to put it, so I guess this will work.

Perspective View - Grimsey, quakes for the last 2 to 3 days

i25.tinypic.com/33yqqmv.png

Grimsey, time vs depth, 18th to 23Â½ July

For comparison, same plot but for the the last batch of activity uptick in Grimsey, 26 May - 1 June

i28.tinypic.com/1z67dpj.png

Suggestive plots Lurking, thanks! Wonder what the Icelanders will call the new island? ;) ;)

Update from Long Valley Observatory, as of today:
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/lvo/
Hmm, the two largest quakes in this sequence are among the three biggest since 2000. Still, "This level of activity is considered normal for the area."

@Lurking [8] -
The comparison plot URL is there but the July plot URL has gone missing...

The perspective view does, indeed, suggest a pipe; would including the previous swarm be a bother?

Ta for the Mozilla link up-blog, Raving. That might very well be the cause of the Flash hang-ups, as I almost always use multiple tabs in Firefox. Heh. I'll just use it as an excuse for disabling Flash in 'Fox, and then use Flock for Flash content.

If you follow the hyperlink in #10, above, you'll see that the USGS does indeed listen attentively to public feedback and respond quickly and affirmatively.

LVO Friday July 23rd activity update..included the desired mention of other data collected at Long Valley but not referenced in their weekly reports of the last several years.

THANKS USGS-LVO webteam! You GUYS ROCK!!

a 6.9 EQ off the coast of the Philippines http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010zbbz.php and a 3.5 off the Californian coast near SF.

@Lurking: you got another deep-focus to add to your plots. 603.8 km 6.9 mag. MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES (USGS)

@13 Passerby, I noticed the new detailed update as well. Thanks LVO team.

USGS have upgraded the Philippines to a Magnitude 7.3

#15 Magnitude for Philippines EQ upgraded to 7.3. If it weren't for the depth it would have caused pretty big damage.
@EKoh: when you have a free time you could tell us something about these deep focus EQs typical to subduction zones. :)

@Kultsi, Askola, FI [11]

Odd...

Here is the missing link. Dunno where the other one went to.

http://i25.tinypic.com/2ujjspc.png

Could have been a brain f@rt on my part... this has been an odd Karma day. Had a tractor tailor rig go into a jackknife 40 feet in front of me in driving rain today... he saved it but the pickup that had just cut me off nearly soiled himself. The rig saved it, the pickup pulled off to clean his drawers, and I made it around the whole non-mess. I'm still trying to figure out if it was good or bad karma. Bad that it happed, yes, but everything finished up with no damage other than nerves... and a pair of soiled underwear. That would be good karma.

Deep Focus EQ mineralogy catalysis technobabble from Geology.com

geology.about.com/od/earthquakes/a/aa_deeEQs.htm

I too would like to hear from Ekoh on the more recent developments in this field.

So there have been 2 aftershocks that are greater than 7 magnitude...are such large aftershocks normal for really deep earthquakes like that?

I am an obsessive worrier...

#21 It's a cluster of 7+ deep focus! Amazing!

Renato ... the USGS Twitter EQ feed agrees:

http://twitter.com/usgsted

Strange stuff in the Philippines.

Truth is that we know very little about our planet. How can we talk about fluid mechanics being applied to the mantle, when we have thrust EQs occurring so deep?

In the meanwhile, PHIVOLCS finds time to "commemorate"...
"16 July 1990 Luzon Earthquake Marks Its 20th Year
To commemorate its 20th year, PHIVOLCS will be holding a symposium on 15-16 July 2010 at PHIVOLCS Auditorium, Quezon City."
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1

#25 I mean, there's no update on EQs activity in the website.

Actually, there have been three large quakes, varying in depth from 575-616 Km in depth, 3 at 7.3-4 Mag!

Quite interesting. Background reading:

Quickie abstract, that mentions similar type deep quakes in the same location, but with respect to the devastating shallow earthquake in this bench/trench. What happens if it's a shallow quake: the most destructive quake in modern times in the Philippines.

The 1976 August 16, Mindanao, Philippine earthquake (Msw 7.8) â evidence for a subduction zone south of Mindanao.
Geophys. J Royal Astronom. Soc. 57:51 - 65

Summary. The Philippine earthquake of 1976 August 16, is one of the largest to have occurred world-wide in recent years (Mw=8.8; Ms=7.8; seismic moment, Mo= 1.9 Ã 1028dyne-cm). It is, however, associated not with the Philippine Trench, which is the dominant tectonic feature along the eastern Philippine Islands, but with a much less prominent trench system in the Moro Gulf, North Celebes Sea, south of Mindanao. In this area most of the seismicity is at depths greater than 500 km, associated with the westward dipping Benioff zones of the Sangihe and Mindanao arc systems. This event, however, has a shallow focus and caused a locally destructive tsunami. ...Bathymetric data indicate the presence of a trench striking north-south in the region of the Moro Gulf, and seismic reflection profiling indicates disturbed sediments east of the trench showing evidence for subduction. In addition, the geological structures mapped on the island of Mindanao are consistent with this mode of deformation. The only other known large earthquake in the region on 1918 August 15 (Ms=8.0) probably occurred along the same subduction zone, on an adjacent segment, to the south of the recent event.

Note the dates. It is also instructive to recall that the large EQ under Granada Spain in April 2010 was also very deep, at ~630Km (estimated by IGNV, USGS and Harvard). A previous deep quake hit the same location in 1954, also at a deep depth of ~650Km.

This webpage also describes the same Moro Gulf EQ described in the abstract above, but has a useful geological setting descriptive/graphics section at the bottom of the page.

www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1976Phillipines.html

@Passerby: thank you very much for the feedback. Hope there won't be damage from these ones. USGS "Did you feel?" map shows it has been felt as a mag. 5+ at the surface. Deep Focus EQs are the only type of big ones we have in Brazil, up to mag. 7 along the subduction of Nazca under S. American Plate. Since they happen in the middle of the Amazon forest, it's never really felt. A mag. 8+ occurred in La Paz, Bolivia, with little damage as well. But these quakes can be felt from very far away.

Yes, there was a very large deep focus EQ in Bolivia, in the mid-8s Mag range. It's mentioned on the geology.about.com webpage.

What intrigues me is the fact that the mantle isn't supposed to be that brittle at such depths and I don't quite understand the mineralogical explanations I've been reading, saying there's a "changing" in the brittleness of mantle at these depths. But it kind of puts all plate tectonics theory at stake, don't you think? In other words, mantle could be that brittle elsewhere. I don't know if I'm being quite clear about this.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2009/eq_091004_mia8/neic_mia8_d.html

Magnitude 6.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 10:58:00 UTC, depth 620Km.

So, USGS, we have 3 abutting ruptures?

Number of global EQs on USGS map jumped from 535 to 834 in 20 min.

According to EMSC there have been six big jolts, all 500-600 km deep. It's a thrust faulting pattern, isn't it?
http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=home#2

#31 Wow!

@33 Technical issues with the website autoupdating.

@Passerby: the technical babble happens to be very interesting, indeed. If you allow me I'll paste some of it from
http://geology.about.com/od/earthquakes/a/aa_deeEQs.htm
"Over a wide depth range averaging 410 km, olivine begins to change to a different crystal form identical to that of the mineral spinel. This is what mineralogists call a phase change rather than a chemical change; only the volume of the mineral is affected. Olivine-spinel changes again to a perovskite form at around 650 km. (These two depths mark the mantle's transition zone.)
Other notable phase changes include enstatite-to-ilmenite and garnet-to-perovskite at depths below 500 km.
(...)
Then the great Bolivia deep earthquake of 9 June 1994 occurred, a magnitude 8.3 event at a depth of 636 km. Many workers thought that to be too much energy for the transformational faulting model to account for. Other tests have failed to confirm the model. But not all agree. Since then, deep-quake specialists have been trying new ideas, refining old ones, and having a ball."

Not much to look at... but here they are:

Mindanao, Philippines

View North

http://i28.tinypic.com/24cco7o.png

View East

http://i26.tinypic.com/nwjzo0.png

>But it kind of puts all plate tectonics theory at stake, don't you think? In other words, mantle could be that brittle elsewhere. I don't know if I'm being quite clear about this.

Huh??

Stop babbling. Start reading.

Mechanism of Deep-focus Earthquakes Anomalous Statistics
March 2010.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1003/1003.4448.pdf

@Lurking: I knew you were already working on this!
BTW, Where did you get the shallow ones from?

@Passerby #37 You bet I will. I promise this is it (my babbling) for now: lot of homework to do. I'll be munching on this overnight. Thanks again.

@38

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

#40 @Lurking, sorry, I didn't get the shallow ones. These data are all from today's activity? I only see deeper than 500 km.

And @Lurking, I'm sorry for the bad day you had. You're lucky to have an efficient "guarding angel".

Luckily, Ekoh prepped us for this.

Tectonic setting of a composite terrane: A review of the Philippine island arc system. Geosciences J. 12:7 â 17, March 2008.

www.geosciences-journal.org/home/journal/include/downloadPdf.asp?articl…

Sakurajima's been erupting pretty much constantly the last half hour or so....

http://webcam-svo2.pr.kyoto-u.ac.jp/local/camera.html

Those Philippine quakes show up really well on the Redoubt Webicorder, with a lag-time of around 11.5 minutes.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php

Seismology and mantle dynamics are not my specialty. However, these deep focus quakes were known before subduction was understood, in fact the dipping plane of very deep quakes, known as the Wadati-Benioff zone, was one line of evidence for subduction. What is happening is that you are thrusting colder and more brittle oceanic crust deep into the mantle.
Now as for the exact quake mechanisms and patterns of quakes, we'll need to heat from a geophysicist.
BTW, the tectonics of the Philippines are complex to say the least. I believe there are two subduction zones converging on either side of the islands.

@Renato Rio

Not necessarily today's quakes. I plotted the entire list then set lat/lon boundaries to get the Mindanao area. If they were in the list, they are in the plot.

As for the bad day... it's a Karma thing, and like I said it's hard to call if it was bad or good. Everybody recovered control and nothing was damaged. So that would be good.

Let's just call it and "interesting" day.

A Perspective Plot of Grimsey area looking North East.

A very interesting plot, sort of looks like layers of faults with the nearby stacks.

http://i31.tinypic.com/15gq9dx.png

nice perspective, thanks Lurking.
Whats about changing the color bar from depth to time.
At your last one it could be a too much data, but at #36 it would increase the information.
Sorry if i missed it, had you also plotted the Fox Islands, Alaska quakes?
Thanks again for this great blog, interesting ideas, nice comments and wide knowledge.

6.4 in Iceland!
Saturday
24.07.2010 12:04:15 64.038 -21.231 1.3 km 6.4 mag 55.894.7 km SSW of HrÃ³mundartindi

The EQ occurred at Reykjanes ridge, but neither EMSC nor USGS say anything about it.

#50 Ok, they've just downgraded it. I think they've switched the figures (depth x magnitude). False alarm.
Saturday
24.07.201012:04:1564.048-21.2406.2 km-0.299.03.9 km SSW of HrÃ³mundartindi

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/eqlist.html
12:04:15,464,038-21,2311,36,455,89 4,7 kmSSWof HrÃ³mundartindi

here its still the 6.4

I'm happy it was no 6.4. At this depth (1,3 km, as the original plot) it would have been a mess at the surface.
But we got some small ones in Godabunga and Hekla.

Chris Rowan over at Highly Allochthonous has an interesting discussion of the complexity of the Phillippines fault area:

http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2010/07/fridayish-focal-mechanis…

@Dennis

I generally stick to simple scatters plots, but since the view only uses 2 axis, I can cheat and make the 3d into a time stamp. Sort of cumbersome since two separate plot runs have to be done, but possible.

View North

http://i30.tinypic.com/10mk6dd.png

View East
http://i27.tinypic.com/2wg6psw.png

Google translated from IMO website:
"07/23/2010: Earth tremor cycle began island northeast of the second part yesterday and it still stands.
So far this day has been recorded more than 70 earthquakes in this region. The largest quake was at this morning. 08:38 and he was four points.
No reports have been received from the island to the quake has been found. Most of the quake are 10-13 km depth. Earthquakes are common in this area."
http://www.vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/2010/nr/1962

From the last thread, on the quake off shore near SF, it is on the San Andreas and probably doesn't mean much. It is near the '06 epicenter. The one they now say was the epicenter of the '06 quake is almost dead center off the Golden Gate. They used to say the epicenter was on Pt. Reyes were Earthquake Trail starts. I have walked the trail and it is interesting to see the offset fence, the escarpment and the spot where you can straddle the two plates.

Will there be a big one? One of these days there will be. Nobody knows when so any chatter about it is just that. Chatter. I wish there wasn't so much hype about it. The best anyone can do right now is have some plan of what to do when it does happen. Other than that, we can't live in fear all the time.

I live in an area where there is a fault. Several in fact and I can see them in the road cuts. There is a spring that is above the road in one place and the spring is on top of the hill. At times, water will drain through a crack in the road, but for the time being it is dry.

Another thing about another area of CA that is near me is the drain that was put in to drain a mine on which several homes and appartments are built. The two holes that drain the mine run down the side of the road to a drainage and it is always running (more like trickling) and is some pretty nasty stuff with a lot of iron in it because of a lot of stuff was left in the mine. If a major quake hit the area, that part of town would look like No Name City.

Right now, I have decided to embark on my own exploration of the geology in my neck of the woods and learn more about it. I already know a bit, but I want to know just what I am looking at in the road cuts and also underneath. I can do that partly with a geologic feature map, but I want to do some field work on it, too. There is a lot of different stuff here. I want to document it even if it has been done before. There is a feature near where I live that most of the people around here don't know about. I would like to get an article about it in the local paper. Eh, some day.

#56 It seems clearer now, Lurking. At least to me. It gives the impression the subducted slab is "sinking" northwards and is bent at its deeper edge. But this is a total guess.

@Diane: nice summer plans, for what you say. It would be nice to take some shots of the observed areas and keep them as a comparison for when you go back next time. Of course, you must have that already in mind, but I remember my father doing this kind of work. He was an Engineer, specialized in Soil Mechanics and a Geology freak. I wish he had lived longer so I could have learned more with him. Still keep his photo collections, but don't find the references to them. He had predicted, back in the 70's, landslides and other hazards that are taking their toll to people living on slopes in Rio today.

#55 #56 @parclair
Thank you for the link, I've just read it to learn my interpretation of @lurking's plots is incorrect. The slab is supposedly moving westwards, for what I could understand. Better shut my mouth and leave the interpretations for experts. But @Lurking, thank you anyway.

For Diane:

Over this USGS seismic map
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/

with this CA-NV geothermal plant location map
www.nevadageothermal.com/i/maps/operatinggeothermal.gif

to view location connection between clustered EQ activity and geothermal field proximity.

If any of you are in England this summer, there is a fabulous exhibition of Volcano art from 16th Century engravings through the genius of Turner to the sublime wonder that is Warhol.
On until 31st October
http://www.comptonverney.org.uk/?page=exhibitions/volcano&type=banner1

There's a whole lotta shakin' going on! First it was Fox Island with very consistent 10km depth quakes, then California, and now a lot of shallow quakes around Greece and the Med, interspersed with the very deep ones near the Phillipines. Hopefully it will settle a bit now.

#63 Thank you, @stigger. It makes me curious as to see Warhol's view over volcanoes.

@All

Coming up with the bright idea of trying to replicate Figure 6 from the "Mechanism of Deep-focus Earthquakes Anomalous Statistics" document linked by Passerby [37], I first ran a quick depth vs Mag plot to see if there were enough points in the USGS database for this little area to make it worth the trouble.

There aren't. But it does make a nice plot. Bounding box of 123E to 124E - 6N to 7N, USGS listed quakes 1973 to present. Recent activity plotted in blue.

Depth vs Magnitude.

http://i28.tinypic.com/29y4jut.png

@Dennis

Sorry, I misread your question about the color = time and mistakenly thought you were referring to the Mindanao quakes.

I can do a similar plot of GrÃmsey, but can't get the whole shebang to work in a 3D view. I haven't mastered the 4D aspect of the program, and each time I try I get something I didn't expect.

@Lurking: Thanks again. I can see two clear depth lines: one from quakes ranging from ~35-65 km and another from ~590-620 km. right?

Renato #60, thanks for the cudos. I forgot to write down where I got the first set of pictures :-}, but at least I can find them again. And I didn't take enough film! Rats. Next time. I need to get a digital camera!!!

@Passerby #62, thanks for that map of the geothermal plants. I had no idea there were that many. I can say the one that is the Geysers generates a lot of quakes. I was suspecting the Coso plant to have something to do with the quakes in Long Valley, but I am not sure just how far the swarm is from the plant. I have occasionally seen a small quake or two where I think the plant is, but I am not sure on that. Right now I am suspecting some hydrothermal activity in Hot Creek which is normal for that area as there can be a deadly rise in water temp without warning. I guess people still want to take their chances, but since I have been there, I think they have blocked it off so you can't get into the water. That water can go from nice warm bathtub temp to over boiling in seconds.

I still want to go back to Long Valley, but there is a lot of interesting geology at home. So I will be taking pics and documenting what I find in a better form than I have been as of late. This is something that I just got the idea to do so it is a work in progress.

Hi all, still alive here.
@63 stigger I happen to be in England at the moment. I would love to be able to go see Compton Verney, but it is the wrong way from where I am in Basingstoke, west of London. Have been gone since 14 July. Am enjoying the cooler weather (actually, been cold on more than one occasion) and also getting away from the oil news. Although I still keep up on what is happening, it has taken a back seat to my vacation. Still have a couple of more weeks before getting back to the homestead.

Cheers
(I think I'm finally getting the hang of this language over here) :)

@69 Dan (Florida in UK). Coincidence! I only live 12 miles from Basingstoke and yes, it is fairly cool weather at the moment. Compton Verney is only 2 hours by car (I went yesterday) saw it advertised whilst visiting the University of Warwick and called in on my way home. Worth a visit if you could arrange it.

@Renato Rio

I wouldn't rally call them "lines".. more like groups. Also, you might take the depth values of the shallower quakes with a grain of salt, when they start coming out all at the same value I grow suspicious of instrument errors... especially when you are also looking at 37 years of technology changes in the data.

Shallower quakes are more difficult to nail down due to the higher levels of noise introduced by the strata. (more reflection points etc...)

Though not a geologist I am very aware of the difficulties of digging a signal out of clutter.

@70 stigger Small world isn't it?
And "fairly cool weather" is a relative term. :) But I must say, even when it warms up, I love the dew point/humidity here.

@72 Dan: 'tis a small world indeed!
Are you on holiday or working over here?
Only visited Florida once but yes, the humidity is very different in Hampshire.

@Dan, I'm glad to hear your fairing well in the "foggy" city. Wait till the "storm" is over and I'm hoping that, at the end, it will all have been but a nightmare. :)
@Lurking, thanks for the precious info. As we have seen earlier today, we can't thrust shallow-quake plotting.
@All Saturday night fever here in Rio, so you won't be hearing from me till tomorrow. Have a good night! <:}

So we can do a little bit of comparison, graphically. First, we go to the tsunmai webpage and pull the figure

Distribution of earthquake hypocenters along a section of the Cotabato Trench subduction boundary (After B. Bautista 1996, PHIVOLCS)

www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami1976Phillipines.html

This gets flipped on it's side, so depth is on the x-axis.
We then paste in Lurkings figure and stretch it to match the depth axis readings from the figure above. They are laying side by side, with Lurkings on top.

Then we go to the elegant Russkie paper, Mechanisms of Deep Focus..from my post (38), Fig 6, which we grab using a graphics capture program. We paste it into our figure, right on top of the other two, about in the middle, and we shift it's layer transparency to allow us to see the underlying figures.

What do we see?

We see that the Russkies are indeed correct, in fact, we've proved their model with the data from Phivolcs and USGS - that the effective plastic deformation length, gamma, is indeed at 200km, because our graph shows that below the surface brittle layer fracturing at 50klicks, we have EQ nodes (clusters) at 200, 400 and 600 kms.

Freaking unreal.

I've written to the authors to let them know. We've just made a bit of science history. Good job!

To be politically correct, the authors institutional affiliations are in the Ukraine, Bulgaria and Macedonia.

I'm going to start pointing to other Sciblogs that are I have found to be exemplary in their quality, subject choices and professionalism. Some have been posting for years, some are relatively new.

One of them is the SETI blog.
http://scienceblogs.com/SETI/

I hope they continue to post here.

BTW Passerby... if you need an of those data points knocked down in size to a facilitate there use, feel free to ask. I used a bit larger symbol than normal to get them to stand out.

How did that parody of Metallica go? Oh yeah, "Beer Good, FIRE BAD!!!"

Let me try that again:

"BTW Passerby... if you need any of those data points knocked down in size to a facilitate their use, feel free to ask. I used a bit larger symbol than normal to get them to stand out."

Dude, I don't care what you say, Katla is getting ready to blow. It will start like Eyjafjallajokull with a fissure opening on the northwest flank. When? Probably before the end of this year. I'm guessing sooner. Take that.

Gonna need some quakes to evidence that.

Katla blows when Katla blows. Does it quite often... but only does it when she's ready. On average, about every 64.5 years, give or take a few standard deviations (48.3years).

The last was in 1999. Can it happen? Yup. But your gonna need a flurry of activity to accurately say "here is comes."

Lurking, people tend to believe what they want to believe no matter what the best interpretation of available evidence by the most qualified specialists. In one respect Mark T Burns is correct - every volcano not currently erupting is "getting ready to blow". Eventually, even once-only events such as cinder cones will blow too, albeit it may be 5,000,000,000+ years before their material is thus regurgitated. Within 10,000,000,000 years, the area where NYC of today stands will have been flattened by a large meteor, asteroid or comet. The surface and oceans of Earth will be vaporised and disappear into space when our sun dies. In 10 to the 135th power years, even the most massive black hole will have evaporated. The Universe itself will die given enough time.

You and I know that we will never witness these events (bar possibly an eruption of Katla, which *may* erupt before the year is out even if that's unlikely), yet there are people who want to believe that this will take place soon, within our lifetime. What is of interest though, is the undelying psychological motivations for such wishes...

;)

Katla will, blow when Nature let her blow,. before that, I holds my bets On EyjafjÃ¶ll, she is more belivable to make a new appearance...

even VatnajÃ¶kull can make an appearance,and every other Volcano on Iceland conected to the Mid Atlantic Ridge,..

If you look at Iceland as a large volcano it get's a bit easier to predict an eruption:)
The statistical chance based on eruptions during the last 1000 years and then adding some outlayers for those volcanoes that haven't erupted during that time but figures exist for then you get an 83% chans of eruption withing 5 years, and 9,7% that Iceland will blow before july 2011.

Likelihood of Katla bopping statistically is 1,8% per year, and if you count in the low activity at Katla then we are really down in the statistics. So if someone wants Katla do dance the Bopp-a-lula then you will have to give her a Beer.

My preferred candidates of an eruption are in order of likelihood, Askja, Reykjaneshryggur, Bardarbunga and Lakagigar.
Among those that would produce "The most interesting times" would be Bardarbunga, Lakagigar and Askja. Both Askja and Bardarbunga are showing some signs of increased risk, such as land rising upwards and increased quakiness (slight).

Perversely enough, I really would like to see a new ultra-scale fracturing that permited all the pent up energy-potential of the 60+ metre uplifting of Iceland to be released. Then we would see something like 5.200 cubik kilometres of lava being pushed out:) We could always name it Nornagigar;)

@Carl on the Sea

Wait a minute...

"...all the pent up energy-potential of the 60+ metre uplifting of Iceland to be released..."

Your kidding right? Is that in the Bardarbunga area?

60 meters uplift. That's a lot of magma, or a sizable crustal rebound.

"GÃ³Ã°an dag allir!"
For what I can tell, you people are pretty much in an Icelandic mood today. Time for a question: why isn't HvolsvÃ¶llur cam working for me? There's a very interesting fog over Gigi today (frÃ¡ ThÃ³rolsfÃ©lli) and I wish I could see more of what's going on. As for Eyjaf, my hopes on a revitalizing are fading away. Katla? Nothing, but a wonderful peaceful view from the cam (hope it stays that way, which is quite likely).
@Henrik, Swe:
"What is of interest though, is the undelying psychological motivations for such wishes..."
I have my own speculations over the subject, but posting them would be too much off-thread. Interesting the way you summarized it, though...

@Carl on the sea: Why isn't Hekla on your list? It has erupted in a ten year interval before (1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000). I wouldn't discard Hekla from my list (not a wish here, Henrik, mere speculation on previous evidence). ;)

@Renato -

The HvolsvÃ¶llur cam seems to be on the fritz, does not work for me either. Nothing so see, anyway, as verified by the ThÃ³rÃ³lfsfell and MÃºlakot views.

@Kultsi: Thank you very much. I didn't know that MulakÃ³t cam was back. Let's hope Mila will fix HvolsvÃ¶llur's so we can go on speculating.

Did I ever say this place is the coolest place in town?
really, great stuff. I've got two papers downloaded for bed-time reading tonight and looking forward to it.

Re these Philippine quakes:
I'd love to know what's happening down there at the transition zone. They say the lower mantle is much less viscous than the upper mantle so the first idea is that the quakes are the result of the subducting plate ramming into something harder and tougher than itself. Whether this is locally the case though is moot. I could also imagine that a subducting plate is so cool that it just ploughs straight down into the lower mantle like those images we saw of the Farallon plate under North America without being particularly affected by the transition zone. The question then would be, why the quakes? At that depth there is probably not a lot of bending going on unless of course, (back to first hypothesis) the plate is indeed colliding off the denser lower mantle at this depth. hmm. fascinating stuff.
Got the Romanian/Ukrainian paper for bed tonight. Perhaps that sheds some light on it.
You guys rock!

5.6-magnitude quake hits Taiwan
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1071417/1/…

hi all together

i've been in iceland for the last two weeks and enjoyed the wonderfull landscape.

as point of interest i made a hiking tour with my father up to the thorolfsfell tablemountain and to the webcam.

that must have been on monday two weeks ago. i hope somebody was able to see that the cam was cleanded a bit :) there was some dust and dry water drops on the lens and myself as a watcher wanted to give all the people who watch eyjafjallajÃ¶kull a nice clear view to the volcano.

i try to post a picture of the webcam/mobilestation later, so that you guys at least get an idea how it looks up there. the volcano itself is still emitting quite a bit of steam, but nothing more :)

another one in the Philippines. 5.1
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010zdbj.php

Whole lot of action in the Philippines; variable depth
# KURIL ISLANDS (Map: bit.ly/90m9Bf ) 2010-07-25 12:57:00 UTC | Depth (km): 119 | Mag: 5.8 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES (Map: bit.ly/d92uVs ) 2010-07-25 08:18:29 UTC | Depth (km): 618 | Mag: 5.2 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# TAIWAN (Map: bit.ly/cPPLj9 ) 2010-07-25 03:52:12 UTC | Depth (km): 36 | Mag: 5.4 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# TONGA (Map: bit.ly/aYfRn8 ) 2010-07-25 03:39:23 UTC | Depth (km): 47 | Mag: 6.0 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# SULAWESI, INDONESIA (Map: bit.ly/ceW1jZ ) 2010-07-24 23:51:12 UTC | Depth (km): 33 | Mag: 5.1 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE (Map: bit.ly/ar9el5 ) 2010-07-24 21:46:36 UTC | Depth (km): 10 | Mag: 5.2 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION (Map: bit.ly/ac5vhe ) 2010-07-24 20:28:09 UTC | Depth (km): 33 | Mag: 5.4 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA (Map: bit.ly/aGVfzq ) 2010-07-24 19:17:54 UTC | Depth (km): 2 | Mag: 5.0 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA (Map: bit.ly/bfv1vM ) 2010-07-24 15:17:50 UTC | Depth (km): 30 | Mag: 5.0 | #Earthquake 1 minute ago via apiaccess

# MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES (Map: bit.ly/bkhKuH ) 2010-07-24 11:56:25 UTC | Depth (km): 606 | Mag: 5.1 | #Earthquake

Seriously... all you are gonna have to do is wait around a bit. There will be another.

From a compilation of the eruptive histories from www.volcano.si.edu of four of the volcanoes in the area:

2010 - EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
2000 - Hekla
1999 - Katla
1991 - Hekla
1981 - Hekla
1980 - Hekla
1970 - Hekla
1955 - Katla
1947 - Hekla
1918 - Katla
1913 - Hekla
1878 - Hekla
1860 - Katla
1845 - Hekla
1823 - Katla
1821 - EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
1766 - Hekla
1755 - Katla
1725 - Hekla
1721 - Katla
1693 - Hekla
1660 - Katla
1636 - Hekla
1625 - Katla
1612 - Katla
1612 - EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
1597 - Hekla
1580 - Katla
1554 - Hekla
1550 - Katla
1510 - Hekla
1500 - Katla
1477 - TorfajÃ¶kull
1450 - Katla
1440 - Katla
1440 - Hekla
1416 - Katla
1389 - Hekla
1357 - Katla
1341 - Hekla
1311 - Katla
1300 - Hekla
1262 - Katla
1245 - Katla
1222 - Hekla
1210 - Katla
1206 - Hekla
1177 - Katla
1170 - TorfajÃ¶kull
1158 - Hekla
1150 - Katla
1104 - Hekla
1050 - Hekla
950 - Katla
934 - Katla
920 - Katla
920 - EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
904 - Katla
870 - TorfajÃ¶kull
820 - Katla
800 - Hekla
780 - Katla
750 - Hekla
690 - Katla
680 - Katla
650 - Hekla
610 - Katla
590 - Katla
550 - Hekla
550 - EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
540 - Katla
500 - Katla
400 - Katla
350 - Hekla
290 - Katla
270 - Katla
260 - Katla
250 - Hekla
200 - Katla
150 - TorfajÃ¶kull
130 - Katla

@Stefan #92: Yes, we all noticed the cleaning of ÃÃ³rÃ³lsfell cam and we are most grateful to you. And yes, I would love to see the location of the cam and the other angles from there. Thank you very much.
@Stigger and @Lurking: Thank you for the updates.

@Lurking
BTW I was just trying to locate TorfjÃ¶kull and checking on recent quakes when I noticed another one near the glacier a few minutes ago:
Sunday
25.07.201020:19:0863.922-19.2131.1 km1.166.077.0 km N of Ãlftavatn
And there was another NE of Eyjaf, with a deeper focus:
Sunday
25.07.201019:26:5663.687-19.3718.7 km1.051.165.5 km ENE of BÃ¡sar

@90: If you read those papers, some of your questions will be answered outright and others by examination of the figures (map graphic of deep focus EQs, in particular; the cited paper will appear in the Europhysics Journal in August 2010) and text references.

See also: Chris' Highly Allochthonous Friday post and take a long look at his map graphic - compare it to the Moro Gulf tsunami webpage graphics map with tectonic forces marked. You will see that the sequence follows a tightly curved progression, which is why I questioned whether there was snapping at several short segments of this curve zone.

@Lurking / Post 95

There are also some pretty devastating eruptions of ÃrÃ¦fajÃ¶kull in the south-eastern region of vatnajÃ¶kull natural reservat.

they took place in 1362 and 1727.

the eruption in 1362 was the largest explosive eruption in the last 1100 years in iceland. the eruption was of about the same scale like the eruption of mt. pinatubo on luzon.

(in icelandic: http://www.islandia.is/hamfarir/jardfraedilegt/eldgos/oraefajokull.html)

pictures:

look towards thorolfsfell:
http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/2640/igp3886.jpg

look towards eyjafjallajÃ¶kull with the station in the bottom left corner:
http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/1118/igp3906.jpg
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/1200/igp3909.jpg
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9285/igp3974.jpg

a closer look on the station:
http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4734/igp3918.jpg

actually the two cameras (normal right and infrared on the left):
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/9175/igp3940.jpg

figures in the ash:
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/7020/igp3976.jpg

and a last look on eyjafjallajÃ¶kull:
http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/2218/igp3952.jpg

if there is a way to post thumbnails, let me please know!

There are some amazing images of Kilauea at this link:
http://hawaiianlavadaily.blogspot.com/
- looking at Leigh Hilbert's photography - linked from Highly Allochthonous.

@ Stefan (#92). We did notice, much obliged!

#99 @Stefan: Historical pictures for us over this blog. I'll save them all, with your permission. Thank you very much, indeed.

#100 @Alyson: Thanks for posting. Most amazing videos to the bottom of the webpage.

@Stefan

Thanks for the info and the nice shots.

When I first did my list I only had the volcanoes on the SIL chart for MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull to go by. (they were closest to the show and it was the source of the quakes I was plotting)

From the setting, I imagine anything going off in and around VatnajÃ¶kull would be significant.

@89: I didn't know that MulakÃ³t cam was back

It's not. Kulsti found and hacked the new site. It's offline to the rest of us for reasons of security/privacy.

We thank the webhosts at Mulakot for their patience and forbearance, in allowing us unfettered viewing access for four months.

@stefan, thank you so much for the pictures -you let us know what it is like in the area from other angles, great. A nice clean camera eye also fine! : )

Thanks from me as well to the Mulakot folks (sorry, on a traveling computer, no accents.)

@105 The camera is available thru JÃ³n's site now, just like before. Using that path does not add traffic - except at JÃ³n's site at http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalmulaen.html

you can save the images if you realy want to ;) they are solely thought to be of a documentary character, therefor you can freely use them, exept selling them :)

interesting for me was, that around the southcoast almost all the farmland look ash-free. but when its dry and windy there is some kind of a strange dust-/ash-/sandstorm which is pretty dens in some places. (there was a pretty heavy duststorm last thuesday on the skeidararsandur betwen myrdals- and vatnajÃ¶kull)

Looks like this creature with the nym about attracting pieces of metal is spamming around trying to peddle the s*t. It copy-pastes a part of former comment to sound credible.

I'd rather die seeing a volcano then die eating junk food and watching junk TV all day....

Statistically, the car taking you to the volcano will more likely kill you.

Nanny states should be banned.

Statistically, the car taking you to the volcano will more likely kill you.

Posted by: Greg | July 26, 2010 8:32 AM

No kidding! Mules are safer. :D

Well, the flipping thing sure as @#$@# ain't me.

Generally when run across intrusive advertising it motivates me to avoid the product. I place advertising in the "theft of service" realm that is generally used for computer and network intruders. The advert impinged on my attention, and distracted me from more fruitful use of my thoughts and time.

My thoughts exactly, well said Lurking!

@85 (Lurking):
Nope, the average uplift of Iceland is 60+ metres above earth average according to a new satellite gravitometric study. Here is a nice map from the GOCE satellite.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8767763.stm

@87 (Renato Rio on Rialto):
I actually forgot to put Hekla on my likely to erupt list;) Of course it should be there. That if anything is a "take a beer and blow" volcano. But, it tends to be a bit on the foppish side when it goes.

this is ADORABLE. so pretty

Hey that's an amazing insight on the subject, thanks so much! never heard it more clear.

will miss you summer 09..we had alot of fun together...but..what happens in summer stays in summer and i dont want this to get awkward..so my number...lose it.

Just tested my "laws don't apply to me" theory at the airport. Homeland Security obviously doesn't follow me on Twitter.

There's a reason I can't do both at the same time: premature ejaculation

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Friday Flotsam: Plume images and a restless (?) North Korean volcano

eklemetti — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 06:08:35 +0000

Friday Flotsam: Plume images and a restless (?) North Korean volcano

This week went fast, didn't it?

The Baekdu caldera along the North Korean/Chinese border.

The NASA Earth Observatory have been giving us a steady diet of volcanic plumes over the last week, including PNG's Ulawun, Russia's Sarychev Peak (a very faint plume), both an ASTER and Terra image of the summit region at Kliuchevskoi and finally a mix of plume and clouds over PNG's Manam volcano.
I wanted to also mention a brief article I ran into on the Changbaishan/Baekdu caldera along the Chinese and North Korean border. Although short on specifics, this article mentions a number of interesting (and potentially odd/wrong) things: (1) Baekdu is showing signs of "becoming active" - this is the first I've heard of that, but the article does mention increased seismicity, inflation of 10 cm since 2002 and an increase in surface temperature; (2) the North Korean government is creating "comprehensive countermeasures" in case of an eruption - I have no idea what this means, it almost suggests they want to come up with ways to stop the eruption, which is ridiculous; (3) that the recent North Korean underground nuclear test might have had an effect on the magmatic system at Baekdu - and this strikes me as 100% pure speculation. The volcano has a caldera lake at the top, known to the Chinese as the "Lake of Heaven" and a Korean-speaking population living around the edifice. If Baekdu were to erupt, it would be a very large problem for North Korea's already teetering economy and government - the eruptions tends to be explosive with the last coming in 1903. However, Baekdu/Changbaishan did likely produce a VEI 7 eruption ~1000 A.D., meaning any activity at the volcano should be closely monitored (which could be difficult with its location on the Chinese-North Korean border).

eklemetti Fri, 06/18/2010 - 02:08

Off-topic: "Seventh Graders Find a Cave on Mars" http://www.physorg.com/news196003436.html
It appears to be a lava tube "skylight" of really big dimensions.

Hi Erik,

i just took a look on Google Earth at the Changbaishan/ Baekdu caldera.Its a monster,thats for sure. Could be another case for media speculation though?.

Wow,

Big smoke vent alongside the old lake on Thoro cam !

And there is at least one more "plume" to the right of that one !

Umm,im not so sure now,sorry(Gets back under his rock...)

Could Baekdu produce another minor eruption? Yeah, no question. Will it produce another monster eruption?

Not very likely.

'Comprehensive countermeasures' probably refers to evacuating the affected population, presuming there actually *are* emergency plans in place for an eruption response.

The North Koreans, true to form, have heavily deforested their side of the mountain, which has caused erosion and probably affords a more significant risk to the locals than danger from a large and aggressive eruption.

@Birgit, last thread, cool micrographs. I like the one with "7" on it, too. Another one I like a lot is the one that has all the holes in it filled with tiny "boulders".

I have a quick question for you. Did you have time to answer my questions on the thread where you posted your first pics? If you did, I missed it.

When I took EM, I liked the scanning EM the best. I had some fun with that one.

On the Thoro cam, I think I see a water fall to the right of Gig glacier. Can anyone confirm? It is a bit of a distance from it , but it sure looks like one. It could be just a ribbon of ice, but I think it is a water fall.

I have also noticed a different area of water coming into the river to the right also. Not much right now, but here is a channel there. Has it always been there and I just didn't see it, or is it a new feature?

OOPS! I was referring to the small ribbon to the right of Gig almost level with the spot of ice in the crevice, not the larger obvious water fall further to the right.

Hi Diane,

Yes,I concur with you there.The water flow (stream or larger) from the right has been there for about two weeks.The waterfall I first spotted two or three days ago.

Baekdu is in an odd location for a volcano..what's the explanation?

What does anyone make of the light at the back of the lake area on Thoro cam ? Just to the left of the main cleft/split.

an amateur here loving the blog.

completely OT as it's not a volcano but wouldn't it be cool :)

--
peel.

Great time for the Flir cam to still be down !

@ #12 I see it too, it's really weird? If it was lava would it not be more black and smouldering, rather than bright and fire like? Probably some simple explanation though? The picture quality doesnt help though, the constant refocusing of the camera really plays tricks with the eyes!
I'm no expert here, just an Eruptions blog addict watching/waiting for some new developments!

@15 Marginata,

Its been there pretty well all day.At first I thought that it was sunlight reflected off of a section of ice.Now im not so sure.The light is very poor now but the thing is that that area is pretty big in real life.

@#8-#10, #12, #15: Sorry, folks, I think you are seeing things that just aren't there.

The two white spots in the ThÃ³rÃ³lfsfell picture of the glacier are, as far as I can fathom, freshly-revealed, clean ice: a bit of the ice has collapsed there. I don't see any waterfalls, they would move, and there is no movement visible. (not counting steam, clouds, birds, cars and planes.)

@ Adrian
I havent been watching all day, but know exactly what you mean about the sunlight, it can really play tricks with the eye. The bright light is still visible though, even through the gloom and it must be quite big, given that cliff face is maybe a couple hundred feet high (maybe?). I also thought that there was a lot more water at the bottom of the glacier, but maybe that could be a trick of the light.
I'm totally intrigued does no one have any suggestions?

Gawd I hate getting distracted by wandering thoughts.

Baekdu is â75 miles from Nuke Test #2. Reportedly, this was stronger than test #1 about 3 years earlier... though no radionuclides were detected. This has led some (including me) to the possibility that it was a faked nuke. North Korea produces quite a bit of Ammonium Nitrate for use in farming. If you remember, there was a train disaster there a few years ago was most likely a batch of this stuff going up. In mining, explosive shots (ANFO) are fired in a sequence in order to direct the shock wave and get a better fracture of the rock. A side benefit is that this keeps the mining blasts from being mistaken as nuclear tests on the seismographs. Boring a hole and dumping one massive charge of ANFO down there it not something that I would count out... though there is no evidence that that happened. It's pure conjecture on my part.

Either way, the USGS measured whatever it was at about Mag 4.7

This leads me to the distraction.

On April 05, 2010, a mine disaster/explosion occurred in West Virginia. News debris from that event still pops up now and then. The high levels of noxious and explosive gases hampered rescue and recovery operations, and most recently the news spit out the hairball about there being a "crack" in the mine that was the likely source of gas. Okay... if they say so. One thing the "news" never elaborated on, or even mentioned was that on the day before the explosion, 09:19:14 UTC on April 04, there was a Mag 3.4 quake (38.599Â°N, 80.916Â°W) This is 58 miles from the mine incident.. and the (poorly constrained) depth was above the level that the miners were operating at.

I'm not saying that the quake caused the disaster, just that the equiv energy was about 125.9 tons of TNT, or 7,943 mJ. This is about 1/10th of Hiroshima blast. That was the amount of stress those coal seams and rocks were under... squeezing out the gas.

But.. that was not the distraction.

I did a Joule/mile comparison between the W VA mine and Quake, and the NK blast to Volcano distance. I'm not real sure about the energy dissipation of rock, but if you use a linear relationship, the volcano felt 68 times the energy that the mine felt from the VA Quake. If you use an R square relationship, it's 58 times the energy... pick whichever one you think is the best fit.

Either way, not a whole lot of energy got to the piping of the volcano.

Just found this at Physorg.com "Like fireflies, earthquakes may fire in synchrony" http://www.physorg.com/news196090397.html

Uhh, I commented on this here briefly. I also contacted and suggested to the Mine Owners that there may be more to the failure than meets the eye, in that the surficial quake (at near ground level) that occurred the day before had the potential to cause a fault rupture and discharge/vent gas into the mine at a much faster rate than could be removed, especially give the faulty ventilation system (for which the firm had been found in violation, several times).

I believe the cause of the quake (in a relatively low EQ probability setting) to be climate related, specifically, rainfall related. Of course, the company never responded.

Their loss, not mine.

Did the 'nuclear test' set off the volcano? I concur with your back-of-the-envelope estimates.

No.

What is probable, is that climate is playing a role in disturbance in the northern latitudes.

For a potential answer, we need to look at a trends that has been evaluated quite a few times by many reputable research groups.

A paper that addresses some of the result variability appeared in the journal Nature on May 20.

Robust warming of the global upper ocean. There is a figure in that paper that we want for purposes of our discussion here.

Figure 2: OHCA curves (upper ocean-heat content anomalies), 1993-2010.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v465/n7296/fig_tab/nature09043_F2…

Study this one carefully. Think about the patterns of activity in Iceland in the same time period.

I believe you have been party to our technical discussions on cause. I've discussed at length upper ocean heating and current transfer of that heat to air in the temperate coastal maritime environment of South Iceland, and its effect on glacier recession.

Our Eyjaf's glacier has been the most affected by glacier recession.

Now, the idea here is that this glacier thinning and outlet recession (very vivid photos have been posted here by others) has displaced many thouands of millions of tons of water from the icecap to the surrounding environment in the flood plains over a very short time period. It can and does exert a large force potential on a very dynamical force-couple and moment (horizontal plane pivot from the coastal land mass being sqeeeezed between expanding MAR relict limb and Reykjanes peninsula/WVZ interface) system that Eyjaf sits on, with respect to the SISZ and southern terminus of the EVZ/interplate region.

Thinning of the icecaps and rebound is one of several complex mechanisms in action here in the eruption of Eyjaf, and they have a common source.

Brought forward from earlier thread in the hopes that someone might be able to answer:

On the charts at

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/gps/predorb/theypred.html

will the upper-limit on the chart (specifically the North chart) be adjusted if inflation increases beyond +20? After staring at it for so long, this is the first time I've noticed the reading this high.

Thanks in advance.

Also, FWIW I too thought the white on the right of the Thoro cam was a waterfall for the past few days.

There have been two deep earthquakes in this are over the past few months. Both of them where at the depth of +500km or more (I don't remember).

It might well be that this volcano is becoming active. But don't count on North Korea telling you that it is.

@Princess Frito

Yes, the scale will be adjusted when needed; on the same page there's the vertical movement plot that's +/-60 millimeters, which, I'm sure, started with a smaller scale.

I found one large deep EQ back in February at the NK-China border, nearly 7.0 at 350 miles deep.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2010/eq_100218_swaf/neic_swaf_h.html

From the look of the historical seismicity maps, this isn't an uncommon occurrence in Jilin province (couple of ripsnorter mag 8s on the 1990-present map).

Thank you kindly Kultsi.

I did notice the different scale of +/-60 for the "Up" but (and my memory might be failing me) I don't ever remember seeing the upper limit of +20 for the North and East scales adjusted higher when readings got close to it but then I've never seen the top of the little black bars go beyond +20 until last night.

Thanks again for your response. I'll keep an eye on it :)

@Diane #8
"On the Thoro cam, I think I see a water fall to the right of Gig glacier. Can anyone confirm?"
I have noticed that too, earlier today, and now it's still quite visible.

Any comments on EQs and tremor plots under Eyjaf today?
Weel, guys, I must hit the bed now. Be back tomorrow!

A last look at ThÃ³ro cam and I notice a tiny eruption at the crater ...

Sorry. Looking better I can see these are cliffs behind the regular steaming that looked like lumps of tephra. Good night everyone!

Boy, you know you've hit the big time when the NYT's travel section recommends buying insurance against volcanic clouds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/travel/20prac.html?src=me&ref=travel

Wow, just back from a trip to southern Calif and there is so much catch-up to do here. Juicy material, thanks all! Incidentally, my host there felt the two recent desert quakes as gentle swaying but felt none of the aftershocks. Having grown up on the west coast, I experienced many smaller quakes and several big ones, including the Northridge quake in CA (as a kid) and Nisqually in WA. I also rode out the 1996 quake in the Kingdome, right after Edgar's home run. All this quake talk has me checking my earthquake insurance policy (I do have one). Calling my agent Monday to update my insured value. It's too low. Back to catching up...

Here is an oddity - Giant sinkholes appearing across china.

http://itn.co.uk/b7a2345bae65fa99ada8d962eec50f25.html

@Diane#7
Sorry Diane, i must have missed your question on the earlier thread. Could you ask again, please?

@ JulesP[33]

Odd. Any connection to massive aquifer usage? I know that they have an issue with water availability in some areas.

Shift the water table in the right geological settings and you get sinkholes.

Lurking
I know that some areas of China have had prolonged and severe drought conidtions over the last couple of years, especially mongolia, so your suggestion makes sense. They must have been tapping deep water reserves to keep irrigation and water supply going.

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/natural-disasters/katla-volcano-10x-100x-…

Katla could it be 100 times as big as the last one?

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/h…

Now there is a live link to watch the Oil Volcano in the gulf

hi me again just looking at Greg on the Bp oil spill on the live link that not good.Been looking through North Altantic logbook live journal by Michaelix,Can Jonkulhlaup debris cause undersea landslipes if Katla erupted.What are the odds on this? and if so do the governments know bout this?As media only pointed out ash risks fallout and Tempature fall on the climate for a year or so,But no mention this.

Off topic, but would be very interested in people's thoughts:

"L'Aquila, June 3 - Experts who told L'Aquila city officials there was no risk of an earthquake six days before last year's catastrophic quake are under investigation for gross negligent manslaughter, prosecutors said Tuesday."

http://www.lifeinitaly.com/content/prosecutors-probe-experts-who-said-l…

The gist of it seems to be that because the experts said that a series of small quakes didn't necessarily mean that a large one was on the way, that they are culpable for the fact that many people did not leave their houses six days later when the big quake struck, and are thus responsible for the death of 300 people.

That seems like a stretch to me. I've read a little bit about how it's possible to map stress shifting through well understood fault systems, as in Turkey, but not that it's possible to predict the timing of a quake. For less well understood systems (and I don't know how well understood this faultline was) it must be pretty hard to be able to say what's coming.

Reminds me of volcano prediction, where some people seem to expect scientists to magically produce a date and time of eruption.

What I worry about - in addition to the future that these scientists face - is the chilling effect it might well have on research in EQ/volcano prediction in Italy.

@40 Hi Suw! It strikes me that that sort of 'it's their fault' thinking also goes along with the idea that someone could 'do something' about Eyja's ashfall...serious lack of general public basic scientific knowledge about their own surroundings. Some people ready to capitalize on the 'opportunity' provided. Schools should teach not only science 'mechanisms' but realistic views of our only-too-human ability to predict anything. We are able gain inklings but not necessarily hard-and-fast truths.

RE (#37): The last two eruptions in Katla following eruptions in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull was rather small as far as I know. ;)

"Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera, Iceland"
http://www2.verk.hi.is/vhi/vatnaverkfrstofa/greinar/Probabilistic_model…

"Postglacial lava production in Iceland"
http://www-old.isor.is/~ah/dr/AH6_eruptions.pdf

"Volcanic hazards in Iceland"
http://www.almannavarnir.is/upload/files/Volcanic%20hazards%20in%20Icel…

i dont agree with any1 being charge for any natural event anywere in the world were human life has died we can not prevent or stop every think that can happen.If anythink maybe up scale the square radius to the earthquake area so includes a larger area maybe.im going to have to go with the experts on this one and Suw comment prosecutors should drop this all together

Whats going on with the tremor plots? Increased activity overnite....

RE (#37): The last two eruptions in Katla following eruptions in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull was rather small. ;)

"Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera, Iceland"
www2.verk.hi.is/vhi/vatnaverkfrstofa/greinar/Probabilistic_model.pdf

"Postglacial lava production in Iceland"
www-old.isor.is/~ah/dr/AH6_eruptions.pdf

"Volcanic hazards in Iceland"
www.almannavarnir.is/upload/files/Volcanic%20hazards%20in%20Iceland.pdf

Hello to all,

@43 Renee.Hi,I think that the I.M.O. have lowered the tremor amplitued on some of the Helicorders.Try this link,http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/eyja_trem_eruption.png.It really puts the recent activity (or lack of) into perspective.

@43 Renee.Profuse apologies,just checked the link I gave you to find that it is old.Try this one.http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

@ Adrian Thankx for the link I did compare and I realize that the activity we are seeing now is way down compared to before. I tend to watch the smaller daily changes right now and they are increasing almost a sine wave until todays activity which is the highest of late on the graph

@47 Renee,

Hi,yes,todays activity has been high and there has been a small rise in the number of Quakes in the vicinity.

@suw: local officials are seeking a legal scapegoat for blame. The hazard map is the tool they should have used, not simply checking views of geologists.

But more importantly, the level of damage sustained and loss of life reflect the degree of earthquake preparedness, especially in enforcement of building codes.

Historical seismicity 10-year map, USGS, for the quake.
neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2009/eq_090406_fcaf/neic_fcaf_h.html

Italy is one of the most earthquake prone nations in the world. The investigation is assinine and officials are making fools of themselves.

There is no shortage of geotechnical and civil engineering specialists who would back a counter-investigation, of civil authority culpability for failure to anticipate the eventuality of a damaging quake and lack of code enforcement to prevent loss of life and property damage, with aggravating factors in the underlying geology of the city that magnified risk disproportionately to the surrounding area.

From the wikipedia page:

'Earthquakes mark the history of L'Aquila, a city built on the bed of an ancient lake, providing a soil structure that *amplifies seismic waves*.

Second aggravating factor: \'According to firefighters and other rescuers, some concrete elements of the fallen buildings "seemed to have been made poorly, possibly with sand"'

Historical evidence of exceptional susceptibility:
The city was struck by earthquakes in 1315, 1349, 1452, 1501, 1646, 1703, and 1706. The earthquake of February 1703, which caused devastation across much of central Italy, largely destroyed the city and killed around 5,000 people.'

'The main earthquake was preceded by two smaller earthquakes the previous day.'

The crux of the issue is that small slip movements were hinting at accumulated stress that had not been relieved for hundreds of years in the complex fault system in this region.

It would be next to impossible to accurately forecast the date and time of fault rupture. Even if an accurate forecast were made, the nature of the sediment base is such that, even when people are out-of-doors, they may be subject to serious injury or death from falling debris, ground ruptures or landslides.

The geophysical community would be HAPPY to explain principles of liquifation physics and risk to local officials and prosecutors in terms even simpletons can comprehend.

The Italian experts under scrutiny need only reach out to their colleagues in Seattle for supportive testimony.

Birgit #34 I don't remember all of it, but here goes.

I was wondering what you coated the ash with to prevent charging. When I took EM, we were mostly using carbon arcs in the vacuum evaporator. I know things are way more advanced now than when I took the course to be a tech. We also used germanium and one other metal that I don't remember what it was. I also want to know if you were using secondary or another of the ways you can use to get the micrographs. When takeing EM we uses secondary and backscatter and we did some x-ray anaysis also. A friend of mine gave me a piece of metal for my rock & mineral collection and when I put it in the scope, it turned out to be strontium. That blew me away.

It has been a long time since I took EM and I never did get a job as a tech. I came close, but now I am glad in a way I didn't get one. The chemicals in the lab were not exactly what I needed to be around.

I have a funny story about what someone did at UC Berkely. There was a PhD person that wanted to look at a frog. He stuck the entire frog into the scanner and, well, you can imagine what happened then. What a mess that must have been!

The Cenapred webcam for Popo is showing steady steaming activity this morning.

http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/popo/UltimaImagenVolcanI.html

@35, 36 - On the Chinese sinkholes: not drought, but heavy rains, in karst areas with a notable history of mining activity.

Refereence: The formation of sinkholes in karst mining areas in China and some methods of prevention. Zhou Wanfang Environmental Geology May 1997. Second paper in March 1999, same title, with Li Gongyu, Engineering Geology vol 52.

The three factors identified by the author(s) in the formation of China sinkholes in these metals and coal mining areas are: the presence of caves in karst formations, thin overlying soil strata (highly permeable substrate), and recent water activity (flooding, suction).

Passerby #50. They ARE reaching out for support. Just look at some of the 4500 (and counting) signatories ( http://www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/archive.php ) to INGV's open letter/petition to the President of Italy ( http://www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ ).

In the meantime, why aren't we hearing more about this travesty from the rest of the world media?

@MJKBK, we are probably not hearing about it because it isn't important enough yet to the media. It isn't a disaster, you see. And right now most of the media stuff is either on the gulf oil disaster or the World Cup. I think it is so stupid to charge people for something they had no hand in. Some people are just not thinking here. It is the blame game again and I doubt they will listen to anybody. I hope I am wrong about that, but Italy is what it is: Burlisconiland.

@ Greg[38]

A wider link that gets you access to all of the bot video feeds is:

www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

My Fav are the Skandi Neptune ROVs. They provide a N: and E: coordinate set. It took a while to figure it out, but a friend and I puzzled over it and came to the conclusion that it reads in feet. The equator (according to Google Earth) is ROUGHLY 10419719.52 feet from the site. The site position was derived from a planning chart overlaid on Google Earth and the actual position is only as good as my eye/hand coordination. However, it was good enough to show that the N: value is probably reference to the Equator. The E: coordinate was more tricky. Underwater navigation is usually accomplished by setting up an acoustic array that is geo-referenced by the controlling unit. Best I could figure, this was somewhere around 92Â° West Longitude. This makes sense, since that cuts roughly though the middle of active oil field region of the GOM. It still adds a lot of ambiguity for the casual observer when trying to figure out where the Bots are at on the seafloor.

With patience comes rewards. I caught one of Skandi Neptune's ROV's in the handling bay on the ship being hosed down and looked at. At that moment in time, MarineTraffic.com showed Skandi Neptune at 28.738770Â° -88.368900Â°. Bingo. A second fix that logically fit with a previous ROV/Skandi Neptune observation. The coordinates from Marinetraffic are the ones that come in via an automatic system that the ship's nav system broadcasts.

So.. with that, and working out the coordinates using an Earth Radius of 20855487.84 feet... (converted from Wikipedia) I was able to put this chart together:

Enjoy.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2i76ydd.png

Indeed, we're thinking of a more direct approach: frontal assault.

Additional perspective of the issues is warranted here.

Excellent seismic perspective, in a recent article with risk evaluation: 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake (Central Italy): an InSAR source mechanism and implications for seismic hazard.
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL039337.shtml
www.earth.ox.ac.uk/~richardw/laquila/

A tiny fraction of the existing structures in Italy meet Eurozone requirements for earthquake proofing. Italy does not require retrofitting of existing structures to code, even when modification permits for structural upgrades are made. There are issues of substantial cost and legal requirements to meet 'code' in new versus updating existing structures.

Low-cost, innovative partial-retrofit measures that afford baseline protection from seismic shock are needed, in Italy and elsewhere.

'After a reassessment of this complex geology three years ago, LâAquilaâs seismic danger was upgraded from moderate to severe'.

Not quite enough time to upgrade building code and make structural modifications to newer buildings, but more than enough evidence that *ample* expert warming* was given of heightened seismic risk to LâAquila before the earthquake.

www.earthmagazine.org/earth/article/23a-7d9-7-e

There is also recent evidence that the risk of another moderate rupture in historic building settings (very old cities) in adjacent fault systems remains significant and is therefore of substantial concern.

It is more than possible to turn the accusatory tables on prosecutors and serve the public at the same time, by highlighting these results and emphasizing 'geotechnical lessons learned' with 'further risk-reduction needed, now, now, now!'.

L'Aquila anniversary highlights need for better buildings. May 6, 2010.
www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/1005/10050602

INGV has not been sitting on their backsides, but working hard on better risk communication tools. Touche!

Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. (2010) Geophysical Res Lett 37: L06306, doi:10.1029/2009GL042352

'Earthquakes cluster strongly in space and time, leading to periods of increased seismic hazard. During such seismic crises, seismologists typically convey their knowledge of earthquake clustering based on past experience, basic statistics and âgut feeling.â However, this information is often not quantitative nor reproducible and difficult for decision-makers to digest. We define a novel interdisciplinary approach that combines probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment with cost-benefit analysis to allow objective risk-based decision-making.'

www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL042352.shtml

Strong foreshock signal preceding the L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake of April 6, 2009. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 19â24, 2010
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/19/2010

Foreshock seismic signal series from October 2008 to the time of rupture may be useful as a risk diagnostic tool.

Another:

A group of collaborators (Russian-Austrian-Italian) have investigated VLF precusors to this rupture and demonstrated a diagnostic tool for forecasting earthquakes. This is not exactly new science with approximately a decade of previous publications in print (and we introduced the concept here by showing HAARP Rio signal match against Icelandic miniquake swarm energy intensity), but maybe useful to INGV in the future if it can be used, with the foreshock series and advanced communication tools, to refine elevated occurrence risk windows.

europlanet-jra3.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/presentations/11_VLF_signal_precursor_Molchanov.pdf

http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100619/159491100.html

Russian volcano no threat to planes

The problem is that quake prognostication is difficult if you have a bunch of lawyers standing around ready to whack you with a lawsuit if you even try to hazard a guess. I'd much rather hear that something is up with a fault line from a Geologist rather than a tarot card reader.

If the Geologist is wrong, he looses reputation. If the tarot card reader is wrong, they make an excuse and another prediction.

#51 Diane
Nothing. I used a FEI Phenom http://www.fei.com/products/scanning-electron-microscopes/phenom.aspx
and fortunately the samples did not really get charged too much which is probably due to the chemistry of the ash itself. When you look at the ash under a normal mikroscope you can easily see that there are very different particles. They look like what Erik showed us in an earlier thread. In some of the samples i would say, 50% is volcanic glass but the ash seems to be magnetic and it is not easy to spread it out thin enough to get good pictures. WHen i do SEM images on pollen or insects, i often have a problem with the charging of the samples.
The SEM, i used, belongs to a Museum, the Ars Electronica Center in Linz Austria We have different Labs there ( RoboLab robots etc FabLab fabrication lab with a lasercutter and a 3D printer, BrainLab with a visucam where you can have a photo of your retina taken and email it home and a BioLab where we are cloning plants or do gene sequencing in workshops with our visitors. ) When i did the SEMs i did them with the vistors watching me and deciding onto which particle we should take a closer look. I did study pharmacy, so i have been working in chemical labratories but i am no tech but an Infotrainer, a person who does guided tours. The museum is trying, what we call an open lab situation, so visitors can get to see things which are normally not accessible to them or shown in tv shows like CSI.
Sorry that was completely OT

Oh and something else. In case someone here has ash from other volcanoes and would like scanning electron images done on it. Just send a sample ( very little is necesary for a SEM) We could compare it with the ash from Eyjafjalla.

@ Birgit [60]

I went back digging though the posts in the other thread to try and find the link to the images, could you please repost them?

---
OT: Rigzone posted a somewhat glitzy article about a heavy vessel (27,270 metric tonnes) that will be joining the spill effort. "the sheer mass of this unique vessel means it is perfectly suited to handle this type of large clean up."

It sounded impressive, I just had to get look at a picture of this vessel, the "Mighty Servant 3." The first one I found did not instill confidence.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2ni2kvt.gif

It seems the thing sank itself about 4 years ago and has since been recovered and repaired.

Sorry for the OT... this thing keeps nagging at me.

@Lurking [61]
You mean these http://www.flickr.com/photos/arselectronicacenter/

Erik, I ran across the Korea Times article when it was six hours old and posted the salient information here plus a link to the (then) only publicly available paper on it, concerning inflation prior to c2002. Since you were preoccupied with end-of-term work at the time, you are forgiven for not paying due attention. ;) ;)

Looks like the obstruction higher up on GigjÃ¶kull has given up and the warm water is now flowing much farther - and is apparently dammed again.

@Kultsi 64 Good morning - I think that the dark area is vegetation - it never reflects, and in the afternoon you can see little silver streams cutting through it- but the lowest part of the glacier has had its face washed of a lot of ash, yesterday afternoon it looked almost shiny.

@Kultsi - on re-reading, I think you must have been able to see the glacier higher up this morning - It has been cloudy since I have seen it, so I don't know what you were looking at earlier- sorry - but I think if there had been a break in the ice wall, the force of the water would have carried all the way down?

@Birdseye (#65-66) - I was looking at steam emissions at the upper slope of the glacier. I haven't seen any increased water flow from the glacier and that's why I think it's dammed up there somewhere.

The rain has, indeed, washed the glacier face and the collapses here and there show almost pristine ice faces shining in white.

A glacier flood has started in the glacier river SkaftÃ¡r, they flood is called SkaftÃ¡rhaup and they happen regularly. Last flood there was in the year 2008. Follow this type of flooding there are usually a large spikes of harmonic tremor coming from the volcano area where flood comes from. This year won't be any different. In rare cases there might even be a eruption there.

Icelandic news on this flood.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/skaftarhlaup-er-hafid (Translate with Google at your own risk!)

On SEM, clearing up more misconceptions.

This Eyjaf ash is clearly HIGHLY conductive and carries quite a surface charge. We had several discussions on this interesting aspect, from the perspective of chemical composition but also a proposed charging mechanism and observation of retention of charge/recharging at distance.

Our sample is also known to be enriched in higher atomic number atoms, so the two conditions necessary to run the sample as is rather than coated, are met. Hence, no need to coat the ash sample. The ash samples could be mixed with epoxy and thin-sectioned to yield additional information on particle size and composition. This technique was demonstrated and used for analysis of Mt Redoubt ash from the 1989 eruption.

www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/MethodAshCharacter.pdf

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scanning_electron_microscope#Sample_preparation

On to Lurking's comment.

Mighty Servant 3 was completely rebuilt after salvage recovery. Very common operation, although the ship type is unique. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mighty_Servant_3

Q: Why are they using one of the largest semi-submersible heavy-lift vessels in the world at the Deepwater Horizons oil recovery site?

A: They have to lift something very, very heavy. Like maybe the 450-ton blowout-preventer.

Q: Why might they be lifting the BOP? We thought it was there to put pressure on the wellhead to slow down the leak rate?

A: Conditions down below are a little more complex than we thought.

If you want to worry about what is happening in the Mexican Gulf, read this.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

In the US Congressional hearings with BP corporate heads earlier this week, a question was asked about the integrity of the casing below the seabed floor. The response was frank but foggy: they didn't know the condition of the wellhead casing because they weren't able to test it and can't see into the well to examine it.

What we do know is that BP has given up trying to plug the flow of oil and appears to have reversed course, possibly to relieve pressure on the thin and poorly consolidated seabed floor around the wellhead.

If this layer caves in and BOP falls over, the rupture will be...a worst case scenario. Since the BOP doesn't rest on the seabed, it's being held up by the pipe and casing. The pipe is thin and apparently, the BOP is starting to list.

So, you would want to bring in heavy lifting gear, I suppose, to support it while you figure out what you're going to do next.

scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/06/worst_case_scenario_on_gulf_sp.php

www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

Remember, all of the facts aren't known and The Drum Beat reader report is 'knowledgeable conjecture'.

As bad as the Gulf spill is, the situation in Nigeria is now and has been dreadful.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-de…

@Birgit #59 thanks for the info. I had not idea there was even such a scope out there. Things have progressed so far from when I took EM. It was not an easy course. It took me four years to do a supposedly two year course of study. I have a two year degree and certificate as an EM/SEM tech. Used both scanning and transmission scopes. Ancient ones at that. The college now has an entire building dedicated to EM study instead of just a lab. I want to get in there and see what they have some day. I know they now have a microprobe which does a better job of xray analysis. One of the things I had to do was a quantitative analysis of Hexel hip joint material. Now that was 30 years ago so I know hip replacement parts are far different now.

BTW, I also had to be able to describe what the electron beam was doing when it was going down the column of the scopes. The ones we were using make the one you are using look like a simple OLM. :-)

Sounds like you work in a neat enviornment. I do know where I can get some ash from areas in CA so I will be sending you a sample when I can get to the area. Right now it is most likely under snow and the road is closed.

Sorry for the OT for the rest of you, but when it comes to microscopes, I get going. LOL One of my dreams was to be able to use an electron microscope and I was able to do it so I am happy. I would love to have one of those things you use, Birgit. I used to say I would like to have a trailer with "Have scope, will travel" on the side. LOL

@stigger[70]

The article seems to want to piggyback on the hype of the GOM event. Let's compare the two.

From the article:

'The government's national oil spill detection and response agency (Nosdra) says that between 1976 and 1996 alone, more than 2.4m barrels contaminated the environment.'

At 60,000 bbl/day the GOM event far outpaces that. 2.4 million barrels over a 20 year period (7305 days) is about 274 barrels/day. The GOM event passed 2.4 million barrels back around the 1st of June... and that took about 40 days.

On a lighter side... Crude oil averages a carbon content of about 85%. Living tissue averages a carbon content of about 18.5%.

At a flow rate of 60,000 bbl/day (2.5 million gallons/day) and at an average mass of 25 tons (short) for a Sauropod (Brontosaurus)... that's about 72 Sauropods per minute coming out of that hole... 4321 dinosaurs/day.

Sort of adds weight to that abiotic oil idea.

@Passerby[69]

Thanks for that link. Lengthy read but worth the trouble. It also explains this screen cap from 3 June 2010... it's an inclinometer affixed to the BOP:

http://i45.tinypic.com/2exy9za.png

Lunatic press seems to be of the opinion that the "sinkhole" will expose millions of gallons of water to "400Â°," flash to steam and cause a tsunami wiping out the Gulf Coast. All I can say is "so?" At 1000 psi the boiling point of water is 285Â°C (545Â°F) and the hydrostatic pressure at the BOP is what? 2226 psi? Good luck with that scenario.

No, the more plausible horror story is the opening up of the borehole to the ocean. I can find nothing factually wrong with the information in that article. I think that scenario is what's been eating at me. The stressful part of it is that there isn't a [expletive deleted] thing that I can do about it... let alone any body else.

*sigh...

@ lurking. Way back when I was in college, one of my professors was a founder of the zero population growth group. I remember asking him how he could keep working given what we knew then about the not-so-great-future. He said "You grieve, and then you fight on". My condolences.

@Kultsi, Askola, FI

Thank you for the SEM link.

Any one know how they (the 'not us' people) determine what the clasts are composed of?

Good evening everyone!
Someone look at HvÃ³lsvÃ³llÃ¼r cam. I think there's a plume rising above the clouds... (Toggle full screen mode)

#72: Thank you for the comparison. My point is that whilst the GOM is bad, people are taking action. Nigeria has lived with oil pollution since 1976 caused by Exxon and Shell (amongst others) but it is still happening and little action has been taken against them. That is wrong.

BP and the unmitigated disaster
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2010/06/bp-and-unmitigated-disaster…

@stigger [76]

I agree that it's wrong, but technically... what their corrupt government arranges with the oil companies is between them and their government. The Great Lakes Brewing Company of Cleveland, Ohio reportedly named their Burning River Pale Ale after the Cuyahoga River. It seems to have a habit of catching on fire... some estimates place it at 13 different fires since 1868. I don't expect the people of Nigeria to come over here and fix it for us or to do anything about it. When I was growing up in Central MS, there were areas of marsh that bubbled up ... "stuff" with the consistency of rubber. Again, I didn't expect some other country to come rescue me.

Bad? Yes, I do agree with that. But again, a corrupt government allows it to happen unfettered.

Back to Passerby. Later in that thread there is a set of two images that show what appear to be puffs of oil from the seafloor. Based on that Bot coord transformation thing I figured out (which could be wrong), it maps to a position 40 feet from the LMRP.

http://i47.tinypic.com/20fovbp.png

Lurking, I suppose my primary concern at the moment would be the consequences of applying dispersant directly into the spill flow at depth.

This is A Very Bad Idea for several reasons, the foremost being that the nonsolubilized plume components ('heavy ends', large polycyclic compounds) are will hover at low oxygen, low light levels and eventually sink.

This would explain the formation of the odd, murky subsurface plumes. The solubilized stuff is forming thin-film 'oil-sheen' surface plumes that will continue to thin fully disperse and biodegrade with wave-mixing action in the weeks-to-months ahead.

No such luck for the heavy residuals. The oil plage will slowly sink to the bottom, covering vast areas of the cold anoxic depths with a stiffly amorphous sludgy mass.

Out of sight, out of mind is the game being played here.

I went back to The Oil Drum website to look for telltale comments from BP that may indicate the corporate engineers knew they were facing bad news.

May 29th summary post:

'He (Suttles) noted that their inability to stop the well âscares everybodyâ but is reasonably confident (no success percentage estimates) that this (Lower Marine Riser Package) will collect the majority of the oil and gas.

Because they do not know the flow path of the oil below the seabed, it is difficult to estimate what is actually going on in terms of oil path below the BOP. Thus they are, again, trying something that has never been done before, but expect, based on the RIT, that it will work.'

'On being asked about the cleanup of the dispersed oil â he pointed out that the reason that the dispersant was used was to break the oil into small droplets. These are small enough to be consumed by the microbes in the sea, and thus there is no plan to do other than let nature take its course. For the oil on the surface, they are getting better at spotting oil pools and sending skimmers to deal with them. '

Huh? The BBC News website has a map graphic series showing the progression of the oil plume. Last two frames look they are reversed - bit confusing, since the LMRP would be gaining in recovery efficiency with 'tune-up' over time.

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10309001.stm

@Passerby[80]

Humor is where you find it.

While doing my best to dig up data on the amount of spume that is lofted at various wind speeds, all I could find (so far) is information on the enthalpy issues... heat transfer to and from the low lying strata of hurricanes. In these papers, the idea of surface tension came up, having a heavy influence on spume formation. With that thought, I began following lines of info on surface tension modifiers... surfactants came up. Surfactants are commonly used in dispersive agents. How this will affect storm formation/efficiency is beyond me. I'm just a data monkey rooting around in what I can find, playing with the dots.

But I also revisited the Wiki page on Corexit, the dispersion agent being used by BP. Both varieties have unspecified sulfonic acid salts, but now the Wiki page has been updated to state:

"An organic sulfonic acid salt is a synthetic chemical detergent, that acts as a surfactant to emulsify oil and allow its dispersion into water. The identity of the sulfonic acid salt used in both forms of Corexit was disclosed to the EPA in June 2010, as dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate."

And looking that up I find:

"...an anionic surfactant and a common ingredient in consumer products, especially laxatives of the stool softener type."

Um... how appropriate.

There appears to be some pretty sustained tremor going on at Ngauruhoe in NZ (probably just got excited about the world cup):

http://www.geonet.org.nz/images/volcano/drums/ch/otvz/10/drum.png

AOT structure:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dioctyl_sodium_sulfosuccinate

Too big to fit in enzyme binding sites (fortunately), because it has 'steric inhibition' written all over it, from a structure-activity standpoint. Sure enough, early biochemical studies show protein degradation (trypsin degradation of casein milk fats, for example) is blocked by AOT irreversibly.

Toxicity chitchat
www.inchem.org/documents/jecfa/jecmono/v28je16.htm

We want section 2.2.5 Special Studies, and 2.2.6 Laxative Effects.

The section on pulmonary edema indicates that the surfactant altered the air-water cell membrane at aveolar-vascular interface (probably affecting ion channel and porin water channel function).

May explain the respiratory distress reported by cleanup workers, although it could have arisen from hydrocarbon fumes, too. Do not think it was the ethyl glycol monomer, because the AOT surfactant concentration was much higher than the stabilizer (predominantly nephrotoxic effects for the former) in the Corexit formulation.

*Real* interesting to find it reported in bile, as AOT was reportedly efficiently metabolized in rat liver.

I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting. Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, I studied surfactant-enhanced bioremediation of oil components.

Anionic surfactants, at the concentrations needed to efficiently disperse and solublize waxy alkanes and highlyh insoluble polycyclic hydrocarbons, were not kind to naturally occurring oil degraders in fresh- and saltwater treatment systems.

#69 Passersby, I have deliberately been trying to avoid the goings on in the Gulf of Mexico because the environmental, social and financial disaster that this has turned into is causing pain that I don't want to expose myself to unless I can do something about it; which I can't. I decided to read your link to the oildrum.com however as the grandstanding politicians, and the apparently less than open oil companies are becoming unavoidable on the news here.

I think that there is a need to explore these hydrocarbon bearing areas,as I see no sign that the move to a post oil world is going to be a quick one. It can also be expected that activities which are really pushing the envelope are going to run into difficulties from time to time. However to find that these operations were being subject to "cost savings" on a well which was apparently in serious difficulties is just ludicrous and negates any sympathy I had for BP at the hands of the US politicians.

The local press in Aberdeen "Oil capital of Europe" is staying very quiet on the subject, and while the US, Brazil, and Norway have all halted progress on deep drilling meantime, the UK government is still gung-ho about prospective deepwater drilling in the Shetland Basin.

I could go on, but this is more than enough for a rant.

@Passerby

"I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting."

Agreed. The humor is a dry one. It's a sort of "laugh or else cry" ifelse statement.

@Gordon

I'm not too happy with Oildrum. Lots of load this load that stuff going on in the browser. That or it's the four simultaneous Oil-Cam-Bots I have running.

I think I'm going nuts.

Mt Hood creaking again....worth keeping a note of

Beautiful view on the thoro cam now.
(22.25 Icelandis time)

If you perused The Oil Drum, you must have come across two 'must read' posts:

Waiting for the Millennium, Parts I and II.

Read them if you want to be *really, really* depressed.

@ Steve
Yes it is isn't it.
There is a long way to go before we see an eruption, if there is one.... but you never know.

Questions for Hekla

Hekla over recent time has erupted every 10 years or so. Are there any signs that it will erupt soon again, or did it not give much seimic warnings last time?

Last time there was a small pyroclastic flow. What is the significance of this.

@90: See Eruption history, on the wiki-webpage on Hekla regarding the most recent reports of magma chamber pressure. Hekla is said not to give much notice of an impending eruption. On the meaning of finding evidence of a pyroclastic flow in the last eruption, see

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hekla#2000

I now what a pyroclastic flow is, question is is it changing?

You didn't read the text, did you?

'Up until this eruption, it had always been assumed *that Hekla was incapable of producing the most dangerous of volcanic phenomena, the pyroclastic flow*.

----> This will call for a reappraisal of volcanic eruptions of the basic rock type, which up to now were generally thought not to produce large pyroclastic flows.

----> It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks.

How can you tell if anything is changing if it has only occurred once?

Ok, I don't usually read wikipedia anyone can write that :P

Well if it's occured once, maybe the system is changing?

Aww, come on Wikipedia is fine as long at you verify the info. It's good as a quick reference, especially if the sources are cited.

If you move to the political info, caveat emptor applies.

@Nick #90 and following. The pyroclastic flow at Hekla in 2000 was probably not the only one ever recorded at this volcano - there was nearly certainly one at the start of the 1947 eruption and again, during the first few minutes of the 1980 eruption. My bet is that these pyroclastic flows are generated by explosive interaction of magma (or rapidly flowing lava) and thick snow and ice, because such things have been observed at a number of other volcanoes such as Etna, Llaima, Kliuchevskoi and Pavlof. Possibly some small pyroclastic flows were generated earlier this year at EyjafjallajÃ¶kull during its first basaltic eruptive phase, when lava cascaded over snow-covered cliffs.

By the way, I am convinced that pretty much every volcano is capable of producing pyroclastic flows. At Etna we know of eight or nine cases in the past 30 years where small pyroclastic flows were produced, some by the collapse of an eruptive column, some by interaction of lava with snow or wet rocks, and one by the collapse of a sort of a lava dome. Kilauea is known to have produced dilute pyroclastic flows (base surges) most recently during an explosive eruption in about 1790. So I would refrain from saying that a volcano is incapable of producing pyroclastic flows ... maybe we should rather speak in terms of a volcano being unlikely to produce major pyroclastic flows unless there are significant changes in its plumbing system (as at Etna, where large pyroclastic flows occurred about 15,000 years ago when its magma was more evolved and gas-rich).

he he I was just kidding about Wikipedia. Thanks for the info guys :)

Yes Boris, GVP Hekla webpage list of eruptions does indeed list pyroclastic flows for the 1980 and 1947 eruptions.

www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-07=&volpage=erupt

Nice little article on the 2000 Hekla eruption that explains the mechanics of the initial phase that resulted in pyroclastic flows: column collapse following early explosive eruption, a function of magma water and silicic acid content, and probably tightly related to repose duration (result of previous publications evaluating older, plinian eruptions at Hekla - a familiar theme of theolitic primordial crust reworking and mixing, but with a twist - feedforward strain from the SISZ).

If one wants to know the hints of pending eruption at Hekla, look for:

sudden jump in thermal and SO2 emissions in air and groundwater are useful for fine-tuning eruption probability to a 1-2 day window; larger eruption window probability can be deduced from a drop in geothermal and hot springs elevation and in the nearby lake level and correlations with warm, dry seasons during the same time period (1-2 years in advance of a central fissure eruption).

SISZ activity is, as on the Tjornes Transform Fault system, associated with a sudden jump in deep fissure pore pressure from liquid injection at depth. Look for a similarity in general timing in the pressurization of the magma reservoir under Hekla.

Hekla dances to a different piper than the EVZ.

Lovely and insightful paper, crafted by a talented group of Iceland's finest, on the subject of the Hekla eruption of 1980-81, open access on the 'Net. Read it.

The millennium eruption of Hekla in February 2000. (2007, Karl Gronvold and friends)
www.springerlink.com/content/p25157781v031261/

The Hekla Eruption of 1980-81.
www.lsndocuments.info/Documents/wp0056.pdf

Hybrid magma generation preceding Plinian silicic eruptions at Hekla, Iceland. (2007)
geolmag.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/144/4/643

Seismic activity related to the 2000 eruption of the Hekla volcano, Iceland. (2005, Pall Einarsson and friends)
www.springerlink.com/content/j58611614567716u/

I would love to visit this volcano at least one in my lifetime. I have heard a lot about it and I wanna see it live from my eyes.
http://healthproductadvice.com/acai-max-cleanse/

KVERT has posted some more images of Klyuchevskoy(Kliuchevskoi, Ð²ÑÐ»ÐºÐ°Ð½Ð° ÐÐ»ÑÑÐµÐ²ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ) at http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/current/klch/index.html

Steam plume visible on MÃºla and Thoro cams.
Another EQ near EyjafÃ¶ll:
Saturday 26.06.201018:51:4663.741-19.5511.1 km2.790.017.9 km NNW of BÃ¡sar

@103Renato,Hi,

Not as much activity as last night.Btw,you're on the wrong thread.Everybody else seems to be on the Mystery Volcano Thread.

Definately the best blog post I've read today. Just an FYI, my Motorola Cliq shows this page great in it's browser.

Pitty i discovered your site too late!

Excellent read, I added your feed to my RSS Reader http://www.acaimaxcleansereview.com

What youre saying is totally true. I know that everybody should say the same factor, but I just believe that you place it inside a way that everyone can comprehend. I also adore the images you put in here. They match so well with what youre attempting to say.

I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting. Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, I studied surfactant-enhanced bioremediation of oil component http://acaimaxcleansecanada.org/

Hello.This post was extremely motivating, particularly since I was investigating for thoughts on this issue last week.

It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks

NASA Earth Observatory images of Cleveland (not the city) and Nyiragongo

eklemetti — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 00:44:39 +0000

NASA Earth Observatory images of Cleveland (not the city) and Nyiragongo

The NASA Earth Observatory has been dazzling us with images from the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption for months - but they have been dazzling us with volcanoes images for years! Here are two more images for those of you who love seeing volcanoes from above:

Cleveland, Alaska
As I mentioned earlier this week, Cleveland volcano likely had a small eruption over the weekend producing a small ash cloud. Cleveland is already known as an extremely picturesque volcano, both from the ground for its highly conical shape - a textbook andesitic stratocone - and from space. This new June 1 image is from almost directly over the volcano, showing the radial symmetry of the volcano formed by lava and debris flows cascading down the slopes of the volcano. A few new debris flows are observed on the east side of the edifice and a weak grey plume is seen drifting off the southwest with ash fall showing that the plume must have been bigger at some point over the weekend.

Nyiragongo, Dem. Republic of the Congo
On the other side of the planet, Nyiragongo - an alkalic shield volcano that erupts basalts - was captured on May 28 with a white, wispy plume coming from the crater pit. The crater area is a series of collapse craters that periodically fill with lava, sometimes spilling over and sending lava flows down the flanks of the volcano. You can see some younger lava flows on the northwest flanks of the volcano and just above the Shaheru Crater, a flank vent on the edifice. The rapid vegetation growth and weathering hide lava flows from view quickly, unlike volcanoes in the high Andes of Chile which can preserve lava flows in "showroom" conditions for thousands (to millions?) of years.

Both of these images remind us how satellite images have vastly improved our ability to monitor remote volcanoes all around the world - and how quickly we can share that information worldwide.

eklemetti Thu, 06/03/2010 - 20:44

New technology that could minimise future disruption to planes from volcanic ash has been unveiled by budget airline easyJet.

The carrier will be the first airline to trial a new "weather radar for ash" system called AVOID (Airborne Volcanic Object Identifier and Detector).

The system involves placing infrared technology onto an aircraft to supply images to both the pilots and an airline's flight control centre.

These images will enable pilots to see an ash cloud up to 62 miles ahead of the aircraft and at altitudes between 5,000ft and 50,000ft.

This will allow pilots to make adjustments to the plane's flight path to avoid any ash cloud.

Millions of passengers had their travel plans wrecked when airlines had to scrap thousands of flights in recent weeks due to the Icelandic volcanic ash problem.

Short but coherent report on Tungurahua eruption

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthvideo/7802711/Ecuador-volcano-eru…

fabulous photo exhibit of the Icelandic eruption(s) at http://myndlist.is/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=119

I have been reading and following this blog since the first eruption of Ejaf.

This blog along with Jeff Masters blog, which led me here, are my daily must hit places on the internet.

Thank You Eric for such a great place to be educated and informed, this is such an interesting place.

Thanks also to the many contributors.

It is most likely that the eruption in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is re-starting, given the signals that are appearing on the tremor plots on the IMO web page.

I am still waiting for a confirmation on this.

JÃ³n, glad to see you posted a comment already. I noticed it's been seismically quiet for the past twelve hours, so I checked the tremor plots and wow, sharp upticks! Is the helicorder activity related this, or just wind?

Oh my, what's happening? http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Jon, what is happening under EyjafjÃ¶ll??

any activity to give any idea??

Unfortunately the webcams are not useful due to too much wind and ash in the air.

Hi to all,

Cloud is blowing left to right on Thoro cam. Occasionaly the cloud drops and what looks to be a large plume appears,top right corner of screen !

Adrian, I'm seeing the same thing. It sure looks like a grey plume but I won't believe it till view clears up.

@ Jon Frimann no. 5

The uptick STARTED at the hvo and hau seismic stations when the other three listed for Eyjafjallajokull were still at base levels - wonder if this is in any way significant? Any ideas on that? (They are all showing high activity now.)

There has also been some more earthquake activity reported for Myrdalsjokull in last 48 hours: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

@La Kat, It is hard to say why that is. But it might just be a simple as a distance factor.

The tremor continues to increase at a fast rate.

For comparison:

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Let's hope it's going to be less violent than last time ... and for all the volcano webcam addicts here, that the weather will be better!

@Boris Behncke, Is there a chance that this might be lava flow ? So far there has not been any plume. But visibility is quite bad at the moment, so I am waiting for some view of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

We should know soon enough what is going on in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull given the current rising tremors.

But there is still not so many earthquakes, just 4 of them and they are relatively minor to, all of them around 1 in magnitude. All of them are rather shallow, between 1 and 7.5 kilometres in depth. I guess it would be more power and higher frequency than that if new magma was on the way up. And I also suspect they would start at greater depth.
Boris, you'r take on this?

Also, it doesn't look like the weather would be better for us webcamoholics... :-(

Meh. Vertical tremor plots are still very low amplitude in comparison with earlier aggressive eruption phase. The one interesting item is the comment on fumerolic noise observed yesterday during a crater recon by IES, noted in their Activity Update for June 4, posted at noon.

'In the crater area solfatara is steaming out with a noise like that from a hight temperature geothermal drill hole.'

Very high geothermal / pore pressure. Magma may have already moved up (repeated swarms from depth to shallows, last week). However, there is insufficicent MAR-thin lithosphere pressure to actively expel magma, but maybe enough to bring it from the depths to heat the glacier subsurface and produce the occasionally 'hot' (thermal webcam) steam-laden plume observed on Mulakot and Por webcams and reported by IES and Eruptions readers, over the past week.

Low-amplitude is associated with "filling" ( possible re-filling in this case?), isn't it?

The tremor plot have started to fall again already. It might be a question if this was a dike pushing inside EyjafjallajÃ¶kull that did not reach the surface. But that however remains a question at the moment.

It might be dropping for a moment now, before it picks up again. That has happened many times before in the eruption of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

@ Jon Frimann no.20

Re: Magmatic dike resonance

Jon this article may be of interest to you.

You might like to analyse your own private helicorder readings in light of this piece of research by a group of Japanese scientists:

http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/299/5615/2058

Ow... that's not fair...
I'm going away for a week without access to internet ( hiking in the mountains). And just now something is happening/starts to happen (??) at Eya.

( of course I'm happy to have a short holliday, but...)

@Lavendel #22 & everyone

I guess it remains to be seen, if and when EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is going to resume its (fascinating) eruptive activity.

For the moment the tremors have died down again:

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html#googtrans/auto/en

If I had the choice of watching my favorite volcano erupt on various webcams or going to go hiking in the Swiss mountains, I'd chose the latter for sure....

#23 Holger,
don't worry, I won't stay at home for the small chance that she will do anything *s*
I'm to happy to go away for a couple of days with my partner. Too little time together...
But it would be ironic if she blew her top (again) wenn I can't watch. ( after all the waiting *s*)

@Lavendel #24

Of course, we'll keep posting on this forum and you'll be able to go back and read about each and every 'burp' EyjafjallajÃ¶kull may emit during your absence...

Enjoy the mountains, I'm envious...

that will be true for me as well, we will be driving most of the day tomorrow...but tonite I am 'all ears..'

from Google trans and mbl.is FrÃ©ttir - (someone in Iceland, a better translation??)
Increased gosÃ³ri has been EyjafjallajÃ¶kull in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and has seen black Mocha from the mountain according to his service.

"There has been increased volcanic tremor in Eyjaf. and a black plume has been spotted, according to the IMO."

Excerpts from a later bulletin: Activity increased sharply just after 17 UT, fell around 19:50 UT, then rose again just before 21 UT. Geoscientist Gunnar B. GuÃ°marsson: " It may have been magma, I just can't say for sure; but it looks like steam blasts or increased gas flow with bangs and ruckus; something explosive, anyway." There have been no deep quakes, and no displacement on the GPS recorders.

Gunnar says it's possible that the black plume comes from the thick deposits around the crater being tossed up by the explosions. "It's more than it has been, but it's not from deep down; it's surface activity. Records from the 1821-1823 eruption describe puffs like this happening."

As an aside, dust levels in ReykjavÃk (wind-blown ash) passed 600Âµg/mÂ³ today. In HvolsvÃ¶llur, the dust levels were over 3mg/mÂ³. That's what... 3000kg/kmÂ³ of air?

And for all that, there's still more than plenty enough for ash salesfolk to ply their trade for a long time.

Is this an ash plume which is blown away, what we can see on the Katla webcam (http://www.ruv.is/katla/)?

@Reynir: Walking outside today was not funny. Its like walking through a very dusty area.

I can imagine. Late summers can be very dusty here on the east side.

www.loft.rvk.is/ - This page (no English section) has data from air quality sensors in ReykjavÃk.

kort.vista.is/ - Pointers to two more sensors, one in VÃk in MÃ½rdalur, the other at Heimaland, close to Lady E.

Right bad seeing on the HvolsvÃ¶llur camera. I think that the hill (and farm) in the centre of the image is named Moshvoll (Moss Hill).

Oh, well, there's always Mt. Benten, alt. 6100mm. Turns out Japan's smallest natural mountain has its own camera - and shrine. http://www.bentenyama.com

Evening, everyone!
Just coming back from a long working day and the first thing I noticed on IMO site was the very slow number of EQs. When I entered the blog you people are telling me she's back to action?
Well, I'm watching on ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfell cam now, and it doesn't look that different from the last days. There won't be night darkness so we could see if any lava is showing.
I'll be right here, anyway.

Beautiful plume refracting light on Turrialba cam now, here, for the lurkers:
http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/videoturri.html

And activity in Tungurahua still very high. See beautiful pic!
http://www.prensaescrita.com/adiario.php?codigo=AME&pagina=http://www.h…

Found this page of links

http://www.lattery.com/nwametro/volcano.htm

And video (spanish)showing "Mama Tungurahua" with astonishing cannon shots from the mountain and interview saying there's possibility of "huge pyroclastic flows" at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEj80bmXIwM&feature=player_embedded

Hmm a lot of interesting post tonite - have been in and out of the house all day, so no time for 'net' trawling :0

@Renato 39, 'Mama T.' is indeed impressive, I wish there were more of the various videos (like from rÃºv.is) posted to You-Tube... I can always get the embedded ones to run.

umm - does it look to anyone as though the 'lagoon' under GigjÃ¶kull (Thoro cam) is starting to hold water again?? Maybe a trick of the light, but it looks different.

I was thinking that too birdseye.. I do wish the vodafone cams would get back online..

Looking at MÃºlakot cam, looks like plume is higher...
http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalmulaen.html

@41 Yes, and it also seems as if the cam's fuzzy factor has worsened
@, 42 Yes, me too *sigh*
@, 43 Yes, on that cam it does, but doesn't reconcile as that high on the Thorolss cam

I see things were a little busy today. I was out chasing tarballs.
Interesting spikes earlier on the tremor plots. No earthquakes though. But she refuses to give up doesn't she.

pictures and video of tar on the beach here
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8388935@N04/

Very peculiar tremor plot! http://i48.tinypic.com/j64tqc.png

It says "digital" to me. Digital as in exactly one thing is happening. As in one flow or resonance in a single harmonic cavity.

@Dan45... eeew..sorry....
@46 Raving - I just looked at the 'short term' plots, & have no idea how to read them but yes, different.
JÃ³n???

Off to sleep now, but I'll check in before we hit the road tomorrow. Blessings on all...

The small eruption earlier tonight has been confirmed. But they also spoke about this being a shallow tremor, whatever that is.

But there is more to this then seems according to news. Given how the tremor have risen and dropped over the last few hours. I would say that this is a slow re-start of the eruption. Since something is pushing the magma upwards at the moment, even if it goes a bit slowly and the pressure is not high to create huge explosions.

http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/frodleikur/greinar/nr/1863

This link to Iceland's RUV was posted by Mike Richards on the other thread last morning. It has a report from the crater rim of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull - it's in Icelandic. Wish I could understand what they say.

http://dagskra.ruv.is/sjonvarpid/4472205/2010/06/03/0/

Posted by: Mike Richards | June 3, 2010 9:39 PM

New post:

http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/06/small_explosions_at_eyjafjall…

#44 Your Highness: Plume is now visible on ThÃ³rolsfÃ©ll cam too.

Conveniently disorganized and trippin' nearly avoirdupois

Convey me mistakes or you gift whippy under your other

Hey, found your site by accident doing a search on Google but Iâll definitely be coming back. - Most people are bothered by those passages of Scripture they do not understand, but the passages that bother me are those I do understand. - Mark Twain 1835 - 1910

Immer kommen neue Mobile auf den Marktplatz. Aber wie erfolgreich sind diese ?

Andauerned erscheinen aktuelle Handys auf den Handelsplatz. Aber wie ordentlich sind diese wirklich?

Agreed, very well written and can't wait for the second half.

More on EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and the St. Helens Anniversary

eklemetti — Tue, 18 May 2010 21:11:24 +0000

More on EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and the St. Helens Anniversary

News, news, news!

Ash from EyjafjallajÃ¶kull piling up on a roof at Seljavellir. Image courtesy of the IMO, by Ari Tryggvason.

The latest from EyjafjallajÃ¶kull has the volcano continuing to puff away - producing intermittent airspace closures over Europe. The Icelandic Met Office reports a ~7 km (21,000 foot) ash plume, but they note that the explosivity of the eruption seems to have waned some since a maximum on May 13. Right now, the IMO estimates the eruption rate at ~200 tonnes/second. Lets put that in a little perspective - a Ford F-150 pickup weighs about 2 tonnes, so the volcano is eruption the equivalent of 100 full size pickups a second. That is a lot of material! Overall, the explosive part of the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption has produced ~0.25 km³ of material. You can see some of it piling up on homes near the volcano in Iceland (see above). The ash itself is swirling across the north Atlantic and northern Europe, causing some closures and reopenings of airports across northern Europe and Iceland. The NASA Earth Observatory has also posted a suite of images of the ash plume over the last few days - impressive as always. The same can be said for the new videos posted on Stromboli.net.
There are plenty more articles marking the 30th anniversary of the eruption of Mount St. Helens - including a piece by Eruptions' favorite Alan Boyle on the recovery of the area around the volcano. You can also check out a couple articles that speak to the threat the Cascades still pose to the Pacific Northwest. You might also get a kick out of the National Geographic take on the ten most "dangerous" volcanoes in the U.S. - including Crater Lake (a good entry, albeit a long shot), South Sister and Kilauea.
For all you volcano photographers, Beth Weise of the USA Today is writing a story about the small but dedicated band of international, amateur photographers who travel the world on their vacations taking pictures of volcanoes. If you have any insight, send me an email and I can forward it onto her.

An impressive shot of the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption plume with lightning in an undated picture.

eklemetti Tue, 05/18/2010 - 17:11

Tags

NASA Earth Observatory

volcanoes and the economy

volcanoes in the media

volcanoes and the economy

You can now see ash on the web cameras at MÃºlakot and HeklubyggÃ°. It is rain mixed, but it is still ash. I don't know the level of ash fall. But it looks quite extensive.

Can't believe that no one has forwarded this to you yet ...
http://www.boingboing.net/2010/05/17/stunning-stop-motion.html

The images on the heklubyggd weather cams are obscured by ash. (The image on the right is the one that shows Eyjaf in the distance.)

www.heklubyggd.is/vedur.htm

The original video and audio footage from a local news crew member who was caught up in the Mount St. Helens eruption was posted in an article tonight. It's easy to imagine how horrifying it must have been to survive in the place where he got stuck. Apologies if someone already posted this link.

www.komonews.com/news/local/94104494.html

Ugh, that's ash soup on the lens! The FLIR makes it look like a warm rain, but I'm guessing that the ash/H2O mix is affecting the signal.

There has been an on-going public controversy over whether MSH should be converted from a National Monument to National Park.

Managing a volcano: St. Helens 30 years later (May 16, 2010)
www.thenewstribune.com/2010/05/16/1188480/managing-a-volcano.html

I'm not so interested in the ecotourism aspects of MSH. What I would like to know is why the physical sciences community hasn't been more actively involved. The USFS/USDA hasn't been nearly as active in encouraging public participation in the new Planning Rule activities as they could have been. Nothing in the news or local papers on these Roundtable meetings.

Web page on biological/ecological research at MSH Nat. Monument
fs.fed.us/gpnf/mshnvm/research

Bet you didn't know that there is a Mt St Helens Research Institute!
mshinstitute.org

You can read about the new Planning Rule public discussion (Rounds 1-3) and it's rolling implementation of Roundtable discussions aimed at soliciting management strategy feedback from the public.
fs.fed.us/news/2010/releases/02/development.shtml

Interesting that the National Geographic list doesn't include the two big calderas often mentioned here (Yellowstone and Long Valley). But I think that there should have been a place for Augustine, with its record of tsunami-generating collapses and its continuing hazard to both air and sea traffic in the Cook Inlet region

Talking of ash down here in the East of England we had rain in the past few days which wiped a deposit from last week away. Noticed this morning on the greenhouse a thin loose coating that has been deposited in the past 24 hours. The atmosphere looks different this morning. Very little patchy high cloud but a definite haze that earlier was pink in colour. Last week was seeing coatings of ash like this appearing a while before no fly zone was imposed at the weekend. I just wonder how much ash is being encountered by aircraft in low levels that may ultimately have adverse effects on the hardware. Be interested to hear any othe UK observations.

Interesting Karl, I thought the same thing. Was a little north of London on Monday and there was a thin film of ash deposited on cars (enough to run your finger through to collect a sample). Also saw some high brown clouds in southern Scotland that did not look like normal weather (perhaps slightly denser filaments of ash cloud still surviving). What I wondered was that they may be too small to be resolved in the remote sensing, yet were not in the no-fly zones. And a general haze has been evident too, though that may not be definitively due to the ash? I would be very interested to know what pilots and air mechanics are reporting from the last few days.

This part from The Independent story linked by Erik is notable:

"Gudmundsson stressed that the ongoing Eyjafjoell blast "is a big eruption," adding that for Iceland it was "the biggest since the notorious eruption at (the neighbouring and much larger volcano) Katla in 1918."

Perhaps Icelanders will give "our" "Little Volcano that Could", "White Lady", "Lady Eyja" (etc) a proper name now? Anna, ReynÃr, JÃ³n & all our Icelandic friends - "nudge, nudge a wink is as good as a hint" ;)

Dr.Erik K. gummiey.posterous.com said that a lava bomb from Eyjaf is about 20% iron. Can this be correct?

Here is the Mulakot timelapse movie for yesterday. At the end, ash rain falls from the sky:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlYv7H25wis

@12(Pierre)
Youtube reports that the video contains copyrighted music and is therefore blocked to German viewers?!

Thanks Pierre. The time lapses are a godsend for those days where other things tear us away from our volcano-monitors ;-)

#13 danckel. Yes apparently the clip is blocked to German viewers. I'll fix this when I get back home. For the meantime, you can try to use a proxy.

#13 danckel: here in Switzerland I have no problems viewing the video...
@ Pierre: thanks for posting that! As I was at work the whole day I couldn't look.

MBL May 16th - http://mbl.is/mm/frettir/innlent/2010/05/16/sprunga_undir_eyjafjallajok…

Hmm...

@17: Google translation: Crack under EyjafjallajÃ¶kull?
Haraldur Sigurdsson geologist believes is likely to crack under EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. Earthquakes that urÃ°u where on Friday a series of fairly regular line from southwest to northeast.

Harold says on its website that the earthquake cycle that began on Friday is quite unusual. "Fourteen earthquakes ranking up quite regularly line from southwest to northeast, as the map shows from the service. This is not the first time that earthquakes have created this policy, but this is a long article legasta judge. Quake are all rather small, and range from 1 to 27 km depth. Probably accompanied by well-targeted crack, misgengi or dynamic progress in the crust. This policy is exactly the main policy rift in the southern part of East gosbeltisins. It is pointed out that earthquakes seem sometimes go a few meters when the lines are active, but it does not apply in this case. "

@KarlUK 8. Night of Mon-Tues gave light ash fall on car windscreen- spherical,about 0.1mm dia,uniform size- here in North Wales. Sending cellotape sample to Durham.

hi all,. hows everybody doing today ?
its sunny and 22 degress here in Aalesund at the moment..

Unrelenting drizzle here on the Isle of Skye. If there is any ash it's washing away. I still find it cool to know that my house sits on top of a huge lava flow even if it did cool 56 million years ago.

Heavy overcast sky, intermittend rain, 15Â°C ( max).
Spring is far, far away....

300 km south of the Arctic Circle in Sweden.
Sunny and 24 degrees. Have a nice day everyone.
Sure looks like there was heavy ashfall near Eyja overnight.

@18: I believe they mean a new fissure (crack) is forming.
Interesting.

I'll (hopefully) be flying into Kevlavik from LHR in 3 weeks time for a visit that was planned before the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption.
Does anyone know whether I should ask for a port or starboard window seat to get the best view of the plume?

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanesridge/

@Stephen, #25: Hard to say, since it depends how the approach Keflavik. Usually they flew along the coastline of the south-coast, so it would have been a seat on the right side of the plane (in flight direction). This would translate into seat F, if I am correct. Since they are not flying this route actually for obvious reasons, probably A is better.

@Stephen #25 - Impossible to say this far out, as it depends on the wind direction of the preceding days as to which side of the volcano they will fly (and not just the winds on the day). If winds turn W/SW/S, then go for the 'F' seat as they'll come in along the south coast. Although it's quite likely they'll stay well out to sea before turning in to Kef.

Question for seismograph readers - several questions last night ref. difference in HVO tremor readings relative to the others - any take from a pro?

@Chris #27 & @Andy #28 - Thanks for your replies. I'm aware that I can't make that decision today - I was really asking what under what conditions (wind direction, etc) I should choose one side over the other when I check-in for my flight.

EQs around midday were mostly focussed on Krisuvik, a failed geothermal site that was then developed for tourists, than promptly exploded;
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanespenin…

re: fissure under Ejya - local structural geo's first look at the 'split rock' photos produced the observation 'that's a fault ' - fissure I guess being a fault that opens rather than slipping vertically or horizontally. So - continuation of old activity?

@Peter Cobbold31 Any take on the current IMO HVO tremor graph? It's the only one trending up on all frequencies - usually goes in concert with the others..?? Suggestion was made that it's near a glacial river, would that account for it?

In case this interests anyone:
1. HÃ¡fell (or HÃ¡afell), where the Katla cam is located, is a radio/TV relay station. You can spot the access road at the bottom of the picture.
2. MÃla reports eight million distinct visits to its webcams.
3. SIL station KÃ¡lfafell (kal), SW of VatnajÃ¶kull, shows increased noise on all bands. GrÃmsfjall (grf), on top of VatnajÃ¶kull, is unfortunately out cold.

re #29.HVO tremor readings still rising. Jon Frimann's Helicorder readings showing a lot of activity of some sort.
Reasons why?

Re: ash deposits on cars. My neighbour (Aberdeen) called me out to look at his car yesterday evening. He had washed it the day before, but it was now covered in small particles (as was mine). Splotchy rings on flat surfaces from raindrops I presume & trickle marks down windows etc. I collected a sample & stuck it under a microscope - along with a bit of dirt & pollen there were small angular clear (glass clear) quartz? & angular fragments of what I would describe as biotite, were they larger.

I seem to remember a call for samples - can anyone tell me where to send some?

@Julie 36 Ash samples to:
Dr Claire Howell
Earth Sciences
Durham University
DURHAM
DH1 3LE
uk

Guess she'll have two samples now!

Well, you've found the opened can o' worms (Iceland's recently privatized geothermal energy projects).

Look for these pdfs

Iceland Geothermal Energy Market Report (April 2010)

Microsoft PowerPoint - Asgeir_Margeirsson_MAGMA_IACCApril2010

And read this article (and it's hyperlinked predecessor post)
http://climatechange.thinkaboutit.eu/think2/post/the_battle_is_on_for_c…

Clustered activity in this geothermal field could be fissure related. Could be development drilling, too.

Re: the ash - look for a post on the Eyja ash in the near future, including microscope images!

@Birdseye33 mags35
Snaebyli(snb) to NE of Lagu Hvollar showing similar trend

Maybe Erik, Boris, henrik, Passerby or anyone with more knowledge can explain why the SNB and HVO stations show a quite large increase in tremors? Is it cultural? (I think it unlikely since it is increasing all the time).

In perspective the increase is minimal but still its the only stations showing UP trends instead of flat or down trends. And they are both on the eastern side of MyrdalsjÃ¶kull.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

@38 passerby, interesting - and if you go to
http://icelandweatherreport.com/
the second article is about EyjafjallajÃ¶kull...

@Paaserby 38. Its easy - if a geothermal project fails it becomes a site for tourism. A win-win commercial success. Providing they dont blow too many visitors away.

Latest Krisuvik Eqs were 5 to 7km deep.

I've seen some articles that point to the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud as the reason Spain had snow on the 4th and why there is massive rain and heavy snow in the Tatra Mountains right now. Is this likely? Are these events connected?

re post 42, it's the third article, sorry, and an embedded video of a trip into the ash zone.

#37 - thanks!

The latest GFS charts have the clouds clearing up a bit this coming saturday at 13:00 local time for a few hours and on monday for most of the day then its back to clouds and rain for the rest of the week.

Check out the the current siesmic signal on the helicorder. I haven't seen it this off the chart since I found this link a few weeks ago.

http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/tremoren.htm

"There has been an on-going public controversy over whether MSH should be converted from a National Monument to National Park."

I am not sure it should be either. I mean, considering that over time, every one of the Cascade volcanoes will erupt, there really isn't anything all that special about St. Helens except that it erupted during the lifetime of many people alive today. It is an emotional reaction and not really anything that makes a lot of sense unless you are going to simply make every single volcano that has the possibility of erupting into a national park.

Are we going to make every single volcano that has erupted in the Holocene a national park?

St Helens will not mean anything more to people in 100 years time than Rainer or Hood does to people today. I would say one must ask the question of what, in the long term, does it serve to make St. Helens a park (or monument for that matter)? What unique thing does St. Helens offer to the people of the nation over the centuries that is not offered elsewhere? What is the cost/benefit?

I would support the erection of a monument of remembrance to the people who died in the eruption but as for making the entire mountain into a national park or monument I believe is an emotional reaction without any real benefit to the nation. Understandable but maybe we need to slow down. How about letting people decide the issue in 50 years time?

@Ross What could this mean? I also haven't seen this before at Hekla... weird at the least

http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/tremoren.htm

JÃ³n Frimann, do you know what this could mean?

http://www.earthice.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/wa/dp?pictureID=101640…
new radar post today

@Dagmar

Keep in mind that there are almost 10m/s winds. That has alot of impact on the tremorcharts. The tremors has certainly picked up a bit but I think that the wind is a big portion of it.

Thanks Daniel!

This morning there was a volcano ash mud flood near Ãorvaldseyri. It started around 09:00 UTC and had mostly finish around 13:00 UTC according to the news. This happened due to rain in the area.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/aska-veldur-edjuflodi-a-joklinum

@Dagmar, There is a lot of wind noise on my sensor at the moment. You can see it how it behaves on the plot.

@JÃ³n FrÃmann [54]

I love the autotranslate caption on the photo:

"...Source of the ashes of the flood EyjafjallajÃ¶kull seen near the bottom of this radar image taken from a Coast Guard plane tomorrow..."

Google Translate

http://translate.google.com/#

type in your URL and them select language

http://translate.google.com/#is|en|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ruv.is%2Ffrett%2Faska-veldur-edjuflodi-a-joklinum

Before hitting translate - NOTICE THAT THEY ASK FOR ASSITANCE FOR BETTER TRANSLATIONS - ICELANDIC LANGUAGE USERS FILL IN THIS REPORT TO IMPROVE YOUR LANGUAGE TRANSLATIONS FROM THIS SITE.

Contribute a better translation
Fill in your corrected translation for words for the link you had translated.

@JB US [57]

"Before hitting translate - NOTICE THAT THEY ASK FOR ASSITANCE FOR BETTER TRANSLATIONS - ICELANDIC LANGUAGE USERS FILL IN THIS REPORT TO IMPROVE YOUR LANGUAGE TRANSLATIONS FROM THIS SITE."

What? And deny me the amusement of the numerous vagaries of machine translation?

And why are you yelling?

from another blog - "â you know volcanoes , any ideas on how long the thing is going to carry on erupting for? Im due to fly out 18 Jul, be good if you could fix it by then .."

Thanks JÃ³n :-)

@12 Pierre-- thank you for keeping up with the videos-- greatly appreciated:-)

@6 @49 passerby and george: Much knowledge can be gained from the continued preservation and study of Mt. St. Helens. I've been watching the various shows about the volcano, and it's pretty clear that the eruption was the beginning of understanding about more than volcanos. How the land has been recovering has been a surprise for the life sciences. I'm certain that geologists and hydrologists have been studying the movement of the land ever since the eruption. All of this information could be used to help speed recovery after another of the more dangerous Cascade volcanos blows.

Heck, at the time, no one even knew what the ash could do-- It wasn't until cars stopped mid-lane that they realized the filters were clogging from the ash. I remember driving through Washington a year later, being fascinated by how the ash blocked out everything on the other side of the windshield, not thinking about damage to my body! We were so ignorant about the consequences of an eruption-- both to the area directly next to the volcano, and those farther away. The more information, the better:-)

@Daniel (#41). You flatter me way beyond merit I'm afraid. Look at http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html#googtrans/auto/en Of the five stations listed, the rise in low & mid-frequency activity over the last 30 hours is only really visible on HVO. If Eyjafjalla volcano was the source, I'd expect the others, GOD in particular, to show it and show a far more dramatic rise. So my amateur opinion is that the source of the activity visible on HVO is not Eyjafjalla volcano, nor Katla. Bardarbunga? Possibly, but let's ask the experts!

ALERT!

16.25 GMT through gaps in cloud Vodafone and Thorolfsfelli cams. Looks as if either new vents have opened all along GÃgjÃ¶kull OR a substantial lava flow is the cause of the almost continuous plume along GÃgjÃ¶kull. (I've got a screenshot from 16.29 GMT showing this)

Please look & tell me what you see! Sorry for shouting.

Since I wasn't there, I asked my sister what she remembered about St. Helens -.just got the answer - "..mostly i remember everyone wearing masks, the ash all over everything, especially the windshields and cars, and in piles along the roads and freeways, and being glued to the tv and radio, and hearing that poor guy puffing and gasping as he was reporting while trying to run away, and how dark and wierd it was ...i was living in olympia at the time, closer than seattle, and considerably closer to Ranier, and we were all wondering if it was going to go too...the ash was around for ages and ages, very hard to get rid of, and then people started collecting it and turning it into those paperweights and eggs and balls and other arty things of glass......"

According to what I understand of the Gaggle translation of http://www.ruv.is/frett/aska-veldur-edjuflodi vulcanologists claim that parts of the cone has collapsed down GÃgjÃ¶kull?

According to http://mbl.is/mm/frettir/innlent/2010/05/19/varnargardar_styrktir/ an ash flood (lahar) has gone down the mountain to the south. It would seem that this is what the Ruv-article referred to.

@Henrik(#62):

Well you have posted very plausible and well thougt through posts in the past so I have you as one of the more knowledgeable. :-)

However as HVO seems to be flattening maybe it was nothing. But i still think that it is an interesting turn of events.

And does the Bardarbunga magmachamber have a connection so far south? Isnt both Laki and grimsvÃ¶tn between? I was under the impression that bardar was on the NW part of VatnajÃ¶kull.

Nice to see blue sky for a second:

http://picasaweb.google.com/102175391233488315229/EyjafjallajokullVolca…

@Henrik I'm looking, but it remains clloudy-- just like my brain;) What is tha white spot on the thorolfsfelli cam? leftover dirt, or has somthing happend at the mouth of gigjokull?

@Henrik65 I think that was referring to an ash flood over by Thorvaldseyri, there was an aerial photo of the farm & river, material which washed down off the glacier in the rains. And it looks like mostly clouds on the cams so far, at least to me.End of the article is a warning to people about walking around on the ash( on the mountain,) might trigger a slide/flood. Icelanders, is that right?

I want to correct myself. Bardar, Grim and Laki seems to be joined in the same system.

But still i think its a bit far north to have such an impact on HVO.

But what do I know..Maybe a volcano will start spewing lava on "Sergels torg" in Stockholm. :-) (joking)

Good afternoon! From the Hekla cam: http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalen.html
we can see to the left, beyond the ash-covered lens, a huge plume (or merely a cloud). Is that Eyjaf's?

Maria @ 44 - I'd say it is way too early to attribute any weather directly to the ash.

Henrik @ 63 - It is hard to tell, but there have been a number of PC flows caused by a collapse of the ash column (usually related to the rate of eruption changes), so that might be my guess. However, the webcam is not being favorable for seeing much. It wouldn't be out of the question for parts of the glacier to "collapse" and bring about more phreatic or phreatomagmatic explosions near the vent.

@Dr. Erik Klemetti.

This is just a stab in the dark but do you have access to any further information regarding the HVO and SNB seismic stations?

Alot of people has made comments on those two in regards to increasing tremors (me included).

What is your take on that? "Nothing to see here, keep moving" or "Hmm interesting" :-)

For what I can understand, the action is being transfered to the south. No cams there?
@63 Looking at the Voda cam, I don't notice anything abnormal (to my inaccurate eye). But there's a bit of the plume visible.

@Daniel, It is strong wind in the area and a noise from he ocean waves. You can see it by how it behaves. That is slowly rising and falling off.

@JÃ³n (#76):

I would buy that explanation if it were not for the SNB station which is a bit NNE of HVO and it shows almost the same behaviour. The ocean waves cant have such an effect can it?

@ Daniel (#67), again thanks. I must now try and live up to those expectations (sigh ;) ) What would be interesting would be to subtract the Eyjafjalla volcano signature (Station GOD) from the HVO signal and see what remains. SOMETHING caused a rise over ~30 hours which has just peaked. I'd love to know what.

Fagurholmsmyri (FAG) located south of VatnajÃ¶kull near Ãrfjalla volcano (which JÃ³n FrÃman warned us about some weeks back) shows an increase over the last two days - //hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/fag.gif

Skrokkalda (SKR) located west of VatnajÃ¶kull and Bardarbunga volcano shows the same increase - //hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/skr.gif

Even if both these stations show a previous decline so that the recent upturn is no more than a return to previos levels, it's still interesting.

Even if visibility is very low on both Vodafone and Mila Thorolfsfelli, it is clear that whatever goes on at GÃgjÃ¶kull produces a lot, and I men a LOT, of steam. Like I said, I managed to catch a pretty good screenie showing dark eruption plumes rising all along GÃgjÃ¶kull. As I'm hopeless with tecchy stuff such as Facebook and can't upload it, I've sent it on to Erik.

@Henrik (#78),

I would have to agree on the "interesting" parts. It seems to be alot of activity on iceland in a lot of locations at the same time. I.e for example the EQÂ´s at Krysuvik today. That seems to be a nifty little swarm. Earlier there was alot of activity up north at the TjÃ¶rnes fracture zone.

If you go back a week or so and look at the pattern you can actually draw a straight line exactly on the Eurasian/north atlantic plate. This is all logic that the events occur on just those rifts but my question is..is it normally this active? We can easily count hundreds of EQÂ´s over the last few weeks. Many of these has been gathered as swarms under well known volcanoes and now there are increase in activity beneath some of the more active/evil ones.

I am not saying that the country of Iceland will end up as a hole in the ocean but the activity so far would make it the most active (magmatic or tectonic) area in the world.

Please correct me if i am wrong. :-)

#79 @Henrik, Swe: If you're referring to the big white cloud right in front of the glacier, I agree with you. Though not so sure if it's really steam rising from the flow.

@Henrik

Upload it on www.imageshack.com

Very easy. :-) Just browse and select the picture, click "ok".

Daniel, have a look at the Vogar station (VOG) situated bang on top of Krysuvik - http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/vog.gif

Erik,

I caught another screenie at 17.29 GMT that shows the same. Something has happened/is happening up there. The wind is from the west so it can't be the eruption plume touching down. Looking at it for some time it's evident that there is more than just the old vent "letting off". Intense lava flow?

Thanks, Daniel. Hope it works (three images).

http://img85.imageshack.us/i/eyjafjall201005191629gm.jpg/

#85 picasaweb photo 85 shows the 'extended' plume very well also. Could it be the low wind directing it down the glacier? just a thought :)

Is there any seismic signifigance to GjÃ¶gurtÃ¡?

Stronger EQ's just went off there. Biggest was a 4.0 according to:

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

@Corporal_E (#87)

Wow that is some big EQÂ´s. A few wekks ago there was 2 above 3 mag but nothing since. There is speculation as I have come to understand it that there is an underwater volcano at TjÃ¶rnes.

@Henrik (#85):
Works perfectly. I understand why you reacted. It certainly seems to be a wider fissure or a very intense lava flow. Something is causing the billowing plume which was not there before.

@Daniel (#88) I appreciate learnign that name. Looks like you are right:

The offshore TjÃ¶rnes Fracture Zone is an oblique transform zone that separates the northern volcanic zone of Iceland from the Kolbeinsey Ridge, part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge north of Iceland. A submarine eruption was reported during 1867-1868 at the SE part of the fissure system off the northern coast of Iceland along the Manareyjar Ridge immediately north of Manareyjar Island.

According to:

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1703-10=

Mulakot cam has been cleaned, thanks if anyone got the word to them...

@85 Henrik: it works *s*
The steamplume is visible - thanks for the trouble to posts these screenshots!

new statusreport 19 Mai:

Eruption in EyjafjallajoÌkull Status Report: 17:00 GMT, 19 May 2010 Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland
Compiled by: SigÃ¾ruÌÃ°ur AÌrmannsdoÌttir, SigruÌn HreinsdoÌttir, Helga IÌvarsdoÌttir, Matthew J. Roberts, BergÃ¾oÌra S. ÃorbjarnardoÌttir and Steinunn JakobsdoÌttir.
Based on:IMO seismic monitoring; IES-IMO GPS monitoring; IMO hydrological data; IMO weather radar measurements, web cameras, ATDnet â UK Met. Offices lightning detection system, NOAA satellite images and web-based ash reports from the public.
Eruption plume: Height (a.s.l.):
Heading:
Colour: Tephra fallout:
Lightning: Noises:
Meltwater:
According to radar and pilots observations, the plume has been slightly lower today than yesterday, at 5-6 km/18,000-20,000ft. Southerly winds prevailed this morning over the volcano, turning to the southwest at 15-18 m/s.
The plume drifted northwest early this morning, but then turned north- northeast (according to radar).
Gray or light gray. Ash has fallen in the south at FluÌÃ°ir, FljoÌtshliÌÃ° and RangaÌrÃ¾ing ytri, and with rainfall in the north in HuÌsaviÌk and SkagafjoÌrÃ°ur right before noon.
Over 20 lightning strikes have been detected from midnight to midday, considerably fewer then yesterday.
No reports.
Heavy rainfall caused swelling of EyjafjallajoÌkull rivers today. The rain, together with ash from an area of a few square kilometers, resulted in a mudslide in SvaÃ°bÃ¦li River, Hydrologists from IMO and a scientist from the Earth Science Institute, University of Iceland, gathered samples from the river and also from SkoÌgar River. The discharge at the old bridge over markarfljoÌt River has not been greater since 15 April. The discharge at GiÌgjoÌkull is still low.
Conditions at eruption site: The plume is up to 5-6 km and drifts to the north-northeast according to reconnaissance flight from the Icelandic Coast Guard this
afternoon. The number of lightning strikes has decreased. Seismic tremor:Volcanic tremor is steady and similar to that of the last few days.
Earthquakes:No earthquakes have been recorded in the area since the night before last.
GPS deformation: Continued horizonal displacements towards the center of EyjafjallajoÌkull volcano together with subsidence.
Overall assessment: The ash plume has been slightly lower today than in the last days and the number of lightning strikes has decreased. Tephra fallout has been detected northwest of the eruption site and also in the north of the
country at around and after 12 p.m.

Re TjÃ¶rnes:

http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/04/eyjafjallajokull_eruption_upd…

@93 Thanks for that reference

ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli is showing a huge plume of steam from the ridge to the right of the gig glacier remnants
vodafone is in a state of overload at the area

Some blue sky again in the background on the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli. Yeah!

Re # 92: sorry - I thought with copy-and-paste that would go. Didn't expect that it wouldn't work properly. Sorry again

Between 18.40 and 18.43 GMT, the FLIR camera showed two distinct hotspots of similar appearance - (sources of) eruption plumes.

@93&94
Seems to be different opinions on this subject.
Ari Trausti Gudmundsson mentions volcanic and hydrothermal activity in the TjÃ¶rnes Fracture Zone in the book "LIVING EARTH: Outline of the geology of Iceland"
Quotes: "..the TjÃ¶rnes Fracture Zone not only produces strong earthquakes but also displays volcanic activity" and " Volcanic submarine eruptions have been recorded and geothermal activity is evident"

I've added five more screen shots including a FLIR showing the latest development(?)

http://img62.imageshack.us/i/eyjafjall201005191833gm.jpg/

the frir image seems to be showing the over the ridge eruption (original) an a possible one on this side of it
wish the wretched clouds would go away

"Bardarbunga, Hekla and Katla!!" (May I suggest: the only expletive allowed on this site when talking about Iceland's volcanicity problems?!)

Here is a little background on Iceland's geology and the significance of the spreading of the North American and European Plates. It is in plain-speak so particularly good
for any new enthusiasts.

http://iceland.vefur.is/iceland_nature/geology_of_iceland/index.htm

@102 'Kitty' Kat? :)

#100 The lack of meltwater suggests that its just cloud. The water run-off from the glacier hasn't changed for over a week.

EQs at 18:00 were submarine, no islands there (yet?!). Gjogurta is on tip of peninsula 50km north of Akureyri. EQ depths 4-11km so nothing to get cruise ships excited.
Even so, might be worth running eye over past EQ monthly maps to see if this is a repeat event:
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/viku/2009/
(alter URL to get years back to 1995)

This is most interesting, hot spots moving around on the ground under the steam cloud. >Hot magma under the ground?

Does anybody have that superb link to the website where the FLIR and Thoro cam where lined up side by side? Much appriciated! thanks in advance

Apologies Henrik i just noticed alot more meltwater to the extreme right of the webcam so you could be right.

@106 http://www.flir.com/thermography/eurasia/se/data/?id=30533

@105 that URL is for weekly maps, monthly only started in 2009. So 750 weekly maps to trawl through - anyone?

@Snotra: All I remember is that it's on www.flir.com, but I'm pretty sure I saw it on Suw's desk.

Found it in Firefox's recall:

http://www.flir.com/thermography/eurasia/se/data/?id=30533

Tak fyrir Reynir!

"Can the eruption be halted?"

http://www.ruv.is/frett/er-haegt-ad-stodva-eldgosid-0

"...the original grounding of 100,000 flights for 6 days last month was an over reaction to the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano."
John Seach's view on flight disruption.
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html

Reynir, at first I thought the article was a joke... itÂ´s sad in a way that people know so little about our planet and the geological force that shapes the Earth.

#112 @Reynir: Thanks for the link. Google translator is doing a much better job translating it into English now. You should hear it when converted into Portuguese. It's unspeakably hilarious, specially because it's a serious matter!

Is the wind strong enough to be causing the plume to be sitting over Gigjokull - as is showing now on the Mulakot and Thorosfell webcams - or has the side of the cinder cone collapsed/fissure opened closer to the top of Gigjokull?

@Kaboom (#104, 107) Every time the cloud cover lifts to permit the FLIR cam a view, it looks as if there's an extended hot area along the upper half of GÃgjÃ¶kull. It could be more than one vent. It could also be a substantial lava flow. It could be both. If you take a look at the screenshots I uploaded, you will see that there's "eruption colums" all along the upper part of GÃgjÃ¶kull. There's been a huge amount of steam produced at the bottom of GÃgjÃ¶kull, just above the "drop-off".

Something IS happening that didn't happen before. Perhaps the most likely is a voluminous lava flow and the glacier collapses onto it which, I guess, would create the observed eruption columns plus a lot of steam. Perhaps most of the melting glacier is turned to steam with very little water. Possibly, the weather with lots of rain has created a mud flow similar to the one on the south side of the volcano that accounts for the "eruption columns" and steam as it encounters the lava flow. Or, there could be new fissures.

If that dratted cloud cover would only lift so we could see what's going on! I do need to call it a night... ;)

#116 It's true. Looks as if they've moved the cam miles to the right.

Henrik, I donÂ´t beleive youÂ´ll leave the screen tonight! DonÂ´t you want to see what happens when daylight goes? I have surely the same timezone as you, but I hope to stay awake a little longer.

im currently collecting some samples from the vodafone cam, but it looks like the ashplume is rising from the upper part of gigijokull.

#117-119 Earlier Dr. Klementti suggested it could be " ... a number of PC flows caused by a collapse of the ash column (usually related to the rate of eruption changes)" (#73)
What do you think?

i belive im correcting my statement: its looks to me like the source of the plume is somewhere on the upper right corner of gigijokull (vodafone cam). it comes up pretty constantly. it looks like a new vent, or the vent must have changed its position quite a large bit

My first guess is that the plume is drifting towards NE. The FL 100/180 wind forecasts for 18Z would agree with that guess.

My second guess is that there'll be a lot of cussing and burning-sulphur-smelling air as the clouds drift past the cameras.

the timelaps for today evening will likely look spectacular. if your right and the cause for this would be the strong wind towards north.

sorry for my english, im from switzerland ;)

I can actually "see" the blue sky where there used to be the basis of the plume. Yes, winds have shifted to a quite different direction, but still looks strange to me. Wish I could see it from above to get a better picture.

It might be the wind, but in 3 weeks of watching, the wind has come from all directions and it's never looked like this.

My other thought, is that perhaps the eruption has weakened significantly and therefore it's a lot easier for the wind to push the plume down in this direction.

extream right side of ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli visual light cam has a plume far away from the usual plume when the wretched clouds allow a view other cams hidden in clouds

What if the cinder cone within the crater has collapsed and now the magma is flowing towards the edge of the glacier? Or further south, within the crater? In this case the fireworks won't be as clearly visible when night comes, hidden by the original crater rim... (mere lurker speculation here).

Ok, if it's not anything new, then a combination of strong winds at the top + gravity would direct a gas-poor eruption column composed of heavier material (compared with previous days) in the direction we see, giving the illusion of a much broader base, also mimicing a pyroclastic flow.

I grabbed a few screenshots of the Voda cam, which are here:

http://skitch.com/suwc/

I also watched the FLIR cam for a while, and more than anything it seemed that the eruption was coming in bursts, with fairly clear air between hot puffs. So I wonder if it's just going through a low energy phase and the ash is hugging the ground a bit more tightly than normal?

@131 I think the limitations of the FLIR camera are being ignored and this is responsible for some of the strange things that people think they have seen on it. It has to be remembered that it cannot see heat through cloud. I looked earlier and thought that the eruption seemed to have moved left when compared with the position of the heat from the lava flows. It hadn't of course. What I was seeing was the leftward moving eruption column truncated by a low cloud bank and the part I could see was naturally left of the eruption source. I think this is the reason for the impression that the eruption is intermittent.
Also when the eruption column is not visible the camera changes its baseline and the appearance of the heat from the lava is enhanced as a result.

#132: I suspect not so much ignored as simply not recognised. It takes skill to read a thermal imager under difficult conditions. I see the cameras on ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfell as an excellent learning tool.

flir died so learning suspended for now

It's still working on the MÃla page, just blinder than a politician in 'self-righteous' mode.

@Reynir 112 - that seems (via Googletran.) to be a fairly hilarious article - frustrated airline folks and other non-Icelanders coming up with ideas to stop the volcano, from bombing the crater, to melting the glacier, I didn't get it all I'm sure - can you give a run-down? Ends by saying they'll just have to wait for Mother Nature's good will.

If you go back to photos from the 15th you can see that the plume really hugged the volcano - we are just currently on the backside of the plume, I think - and it naturally falls down the glacier ....http://yfrog.com/6b15hvol17p (hope this works, first attempt..)

re 135 it's back now server reset or overseas viewers?

Body text: "Airlines around the world have lost billions of dollars [or milliards of euros] because of the eruption in Eyjaf. If it comtinues, this can ground them for good. The airlines' emergence committees meet regularly, and various odd requests and ideas on how to curb the eruption have surfaced.

"It has been kicked about if it it's possible to blow a channel to drain water from the crater or simply blow up both volcano and glacier.

"The newsroom approached several geologists for their opinion on the ideas, and their reaction was largely the same: ROFLMAO and the answer: Not a chance! No human power can stop the eruption and water isn't the problem anyway. Even if there were no water, the plume would exist because of gas exploding out of the magma and throwing up tephra.

"One of the geologists added that it might be possible to stop the eruption by simply dropping a 400-metre thick ice block on top of it. That should choke the plume, but would cause immense floods instead. And it'd have to replenished regularly until magma stopped flowing. It's not a realistic option, though.

"The airlines can thus forget this option already. The only way is to put their trust in higher powers... mainly Mother Earth's mercy."

re 136 toss corrupt politicians and thieving banksters in it but then there would be none of those "people" left and tho volcano might get far worse from severe indigestion

Thanks Reynir - Gina Ct, i like your option but fear the same result!

@Gina Ct #140 ~ I like your idea and I think the possibility of indigestion is worth the risk :)

#140: Plus it would be really desecrating the poor volcano.

re 140 The usual idea is that you throw people into the volcano as a sacrifice to the gods. The trouble with this is that throwing in bankers doesn't qualify as a sacrifice.

but if you toss enough dung on a fire it puts it out

ohh but the smell

In case you're tired of peering into the ash & fog, here's a pretty good article on wool and its importance in Iceland (subject to familiar difficulties with the Icelandic alphabet..)
http://www.icelandicsheep.com/knit.html

It's close to low night here on the east coast - and it's reading light outside.

Pardon me for jumping in here, but does anyone know how the Iceland Met Office builds its ash plume lightning graphic at http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html from the UK Met data? How do they factor out "regular" lightning strokes?

and here's a short Icelandic poem for this sort of weather (minus a volcano.) with a second link for a reading of same...
http://www.languagehat.com/archives/001469.php
http://www.library.wisc.edu/etext/Jonas/Dalabondi/mm/Dalabondi-AHJ.au

#148: Erm... What other lightning? :-) More seriously, lightning is uncommon enough in Iceland that five flashes is a big event.

Also, I have no idea if IMO gets the data from UKMO as prepared co-ordinates or as direction-and-range numbers.

Many thanks to our Mulakot webcam hosts for cleaning the ash off residue on the lens of several rooftop cameras.

If the Iceland Weather Report (news commentary) website's facts are correct, and farmers forced to move their livestock would not be allowed to return their animals 'home' later on, we would ask Animal Health vet officials to consider a one-time isolation zone waiver for specially marked (red dot) animal refugees. As long as they are kept segregated from other regional herds in 'quarantine' conditions, there should be relatively little risk of disease propagation side effects from the emergency evacuation of these animals.

Can the banker stuff people; even in jest, that's my wife you're talking about. She's the kindest, most honest and honourable person I've ever met. Don't believe everything you read in the papers.

Am watching the Thoro cam, has the plume moved?? it appears to be rising from the glacier,, probably a trick of the light. lol just wondering :)

@153Fireman Sorry,no offense meant. There's been so much press both here & in Europe & Iceland of large-scale problems in the industry - I too know many fine banking people.
@149,151 do the tablesthere tell you anything useful? (headings below..) They're under ' ÃrumuspÃ¡' on the page and I couldn't find a translation....
------------------------------------------------------------
Eldingar viÃ° Ãsland (63-67Â°N, 13-25Â°V)
Breidd Lengd Ãvissa GÃ¦Ã°i
Dagsetning_TÃmi NÃºmer Â°N Â°V km G=gÃ³Ã°
------------------------------------------------------------

We here's something new and cool to play with!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/atd.html

Fireman, I think "banker" is referring to those greedy people that are not on the up and up. I would say most bankers are decent people. There are a few, though.... Actually, I can think of a few politicians that we could throw into the crater. :-) I mean even Will Rogers talked about the "do nothing Congress". Seems they either do nothing, or do too much. When Robert Kennedy was in Japan, he was taken to the Japanese Supreme Court and he noticed there was no gavel. He inquired and they told him they didn't need one because the lawyers always presented things in a very proper manner and a gavel was not needed. Later he went to the Japanese version of Congress. He saw a gavel there and again asked about it. The answer was "Politics is the same the world over." How true.

I will be taking a look-see on the cams and I bet there isn't any "see".

Well, there was something to see on Thoro and I could see the plume, but not very well. And the clouds continue.

@1154Shelly best guess is that the camera is barely out from under the plume track,which is still bearing towards and to the left of the camera, I think - so it looks as though the crater spot (when it shows!) is further left - (the plume carries a surprising amount of heat, too.) Dunno, too cloudy -

Does look as though possibly the lava is a bit further down the slope, though, or more ice has melted away from it...

Cloud is lifting enough to see occasional lightning flashes, she is stiff puffing away under her blanket..

@ Diane #157 - yes, visible dark plume, very prominent steam plume in front of it a moment ago but I think that it's heading towards the camera again ie 'ash-out'. Ah well, back to doing the laundry:-(

#155: The fields are, as far as I can tell: Date/Time, (event) number, latitude, longitude (lat/lon in degrees and decimals), uncertainty (in km) and quality (G=good Q)

Well this is something I didn't know when I woke up this morning! :)

//www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/atd.html

@Reynir (#151)

#148: Erm... What other lightning? :-) More seriously, lightning is uncommon enough in Iceland that five flashes is a big event.

ÃÃ³r has to be a laid back sort of guy.

@Fireman (#153)

Would it be agreeable with you if we substituted lawyers for bankers?

If the bankers don't appreciate the public image they have produced they can do what is necessary to alter opinion.

@Princess - good find! Now, what's ADT?

Based on my known brand of uneducated, rectal database guesswork, I'd say the plume was drifting NNE now.

Is that steam going straight up on the Thoro cam? I've never seen it do that before.

ATD, whatever ; 0

Now it's gone. It looked like it was coming up from the water or something. It was right in front of the ledge.

@ Diane: you didn't happen to also be referring to the gouvernor of Louisiana when you were talking about politicians, right ^_^ ?

Couldn't resist posting this one here: http://verydemotivational.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/12916222591360870…

ATD = Arrival Time Difference

..I *would* have to look....

This UK ATD Lightning Detection Network was developed, based on VLF Arrival Time Difference (ATD) principles. At very low frequencies the electromagnetic pulse from the return stroke of a lightning strike is able to propagate over extremely large distances by using the earth-ionosphere waveguide. Thus a network can be designed to cover large areas of the Earth.

The ATD system at the Met Office works by accurately measuring the arrival time of the lightning pulse at several widespread locations. The system consists of 7 remote stations and one central control station (at Bracknell, UK). At each remote station there is a whip antenna, which is sensitive to radiation from 10-14KHz. The ATD system works by detecting the vertical component of the electromagnetic field generated by a lightning discharge. Strong electromagnetic emissions at these frequencies are caused by rapid neutralization of charge in the lowest few hundred meters of cloud to ground (C-G) strokes. Atmospheric attenuation at these frequencies is very low and the electromagnetic discharge (SFERIC) can propagate over thousands of kilometers along the earth-atmosphere wave guide. After filtering, the waveform is Fourier analyzed, time-stamped by a rubidium oscillator and then sent to the control station. If the lightning strike is strong enough to be detected by several remote stations, the control station then receives waveforms from all of these stations. At the control station, the waveforms are correlated and the arrival time differences between each remote station and a reference station are calculated. Each time difference defines a locus of constant ATD between two stations. Using the loci from four or more outstations, it is possible to fix the location of a lightning strike on the surface of the Earth. The accuracy of lightning fixing is dependent mostly on the accuracy of time keeping at the remote stations. To ensure the best possible time accuracy, there is a back-up rubidium oscillator at each remote station, and they are both checked regularly by GPS. The final location error is also dependent on the number of remote stations contributing waveforms and the geometry of the fix in relation to the remote stations. If the fix is inside the quasi-triangle formed by the UK stations, Gibraltar and Akrotiri, then the loci should be intersecting at right angles, and the fix is well determined. For example, over the UK, the error is typically about 2km. But if the fix is well outside the network, say in South America, then the loci all intersect at shallow angles, and the error is therefore greater, perhaps as much as 100km.

Here's a link that describes how ATDnet works: (12 pp.)

//www.vaisala.com/files/Observing_lightning_around_the_globe_from_the_sur…

Or what birdseyeUSA said lol

#155 cont: According to the explaining page (SkÃ½ringar), there is an ATD measuring station at KeflavÃk Airport, owned by the UKMO, operated by the IceMO. Seems the raw data are sent to the UK and processed and correlated there. Seems, then, that the IMO is getting processed, ready-to-plot data.

#169: I spotted it, too. I think it was clouds being pushed up by the wind.

#170: Liked that demot.

#170 Oh My !!! hahahaha!!! It's about time!

@Princess Frito174 - Er- cut & paste from stroke-of-luck find...but having read that, now maybe the long version will make sense to me ;)

A fictitious(?) ad for the Hraun (Lava) choc-covered bar:

A: I see lava on GÃgjÃ¶kull!
All: Where? Where?
A: Right by your toes!
All: *look down and see...*
C: That's MY Lava bar!

'@Peter Cobbold - I just found your post @ 40 naming the other stations - I have only been looking at the 'near Eyja' 5 graphs - the red squares on the map mostly won't click for me, and the page of all the station graphs doesn't have a map with names I can refer to , so that explains my ignorance, but thanks for the pointer.

OK all, hasta maÃ±ana - and maybe better 'looking' -

#179: The Icelandic page has tool tips which the English page lacks.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/index.html

Hmm. Something interesting seems to be occurring, tectonically speaking, on the MAR and elsewhere.

There has been a definite uptick in EQ activity reported by the USGS in the last few days.

I think we may be about to see a large quake event...

I continue to have reservations about the eastern end of the SISZ. Just got that feeling...

Wonder what would happen to Eyjaf as that displaced energy is transferred through the volcano crater.

If geothermal pressure on the Reykjanes Ridge has suddenly increased in the past 24 hours, I would be definitely uneasy, Icelandic Civil Defense.

Wouldn't Wenlock and Mandeville be great mascots for EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls.

latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2010/05/are-londons-wenlock-and-mandeville-the-most-bizarre-olympics-mascots-yet.html

Here is a video that I took when I did go to EyjafjallajÃ¶kull area where the most ash fall has happened.

This is just the first video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcPXTGdxKrc

The indicator factors I measure are ringing like bells (loaded with energy), IMO.

Wow yeah, lots of fresh quakes again.

Gosh, I've looked at all the charts, and it looks like normal seismicity to me. I check eq charts every day, and it looks like CA where there's easy movement on faults-- lots of little tremors every day.

Sure wish the clouds would clear;;;;-))

Parclair, I was noticing how many recent quakes are showing up in red on the entire Iceland map view. That has happened a couple of times since I started watching, but usually there are only a few red dots on the map at any one time. Just now there are about twelve. Just a tad unusual though, as you say, they are very small ones.

@Carla, About twelve new earthquakes is actually rather quiet. There have been small earthquakes swarms happening today and yesterday. But nothing out of the ordinary. Yesterday there where 34 earthquakes on the automatic map, and that is also rather quiet time.

@Jon and @Parclair, ah. I have only been watching for a few months but I haven't noticed 34 "red" quakes at one time on the map. Wow. Anyway, not intending to raise alarm -- just found it interesting.

Two screenshots from this morning with steam visible under the ash plume.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/50029293@N05/4623229345/

@Birdseye179: interactive tremor map works for me but needs steady hand. Here is URL for Snaebyli (post40): shttp://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/snb.gif
tweak three letters of URL preceeding .gif to get the others.

Good morning all - today will be sunny and 28-30C, too warm too suddenly..
thank you Peter Cobbold@191, will try to get a better handle on geography!

When did they move Thorosfelli cam to Mordor?

Images are dramatic.

@ All - update for those not actively watching..... on Thoro - bottom of Gigjokull visible below and to the (our)left of the ash plume, with steam swirling underneath and to the left of the plume also. 'Split rock' intact, arch intact, V-notch clearly defined, and what appears to be a generous covering of ash on the rocks in the foreground.
Nothing visible above the level of the notch :-(
But she continues without us.

Time-lapse 19 May 2010 vodafone webcamhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ycpkck6qEk

@sunday (193) My 11 year old daughter just had the exact same thought. She asked which Lord of the Rings movie I was watching! Very cool views this morning.

@JON FRIMANN, Boris, Erik , et al.

Some very large deflation readings today in Lady E. Anyone care to speculate what is happening ?? Eruption almost over ? or something more dramatic, such as magma movement elsewhere ?? or just a day of bad outlier readings

hraun.vedur.is/ja/gps/predorb/

@d9tRoterdam, thank you for the time-lapse - 'life on the dark side of the plume.'
If you haven't watched the KOMOSeattle video of the reporter caught in the St. Helen's ash, it's at
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/94104494.html ,
thanks to Carla Seattle @4

From visir.is:
1. GrÃmsvÃ¶tn rising - SkeiÃ°arÃ¡ likely to flood soon.
2. SkeiÃ°arÃ¡ run soon. (It's an 8/16 km cross-country event next Saturday, starting at the SkeiÃ°arÃ¡ bridge, finishing in Skaftafell.)
3. "Daren't let scientists approach Eyjaf. on foot." (Where yesterday's mudslides started looks like slab avalanches on radar images: http://www.ruv.is/sites/default/files/myndir/radar-20100519-104505-0000… )

@Reynir 199 - I tried to read the article and hen about GrimsvÃ¶tn - I am assuming they mean that the water level in the caldera is rising and that they expect a release soon? (which seems to be fairly common.)

From ruv.is:
With weaker tremor and less lightning, activity at Eyjaf. seems lessening, but the plume still reaches an altitude of ca. 6km, leaning NNE.

http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=29314&ew_…

Old but interesting :)

Wish I were a painter - the play of light on Thoro cam is endlessly fascinating.

Icelandreview.com about the mudflow yesterday:
http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=16567&ew_…

@203 Birdseye. It's really hard for me to tear myself away this am, the pictures are so dreamy--

Re painting, get a piece of really thick watercolor paper (this is key, I use 300 lb cold press), apply lots of water. Keep the paper wet.

Composition: don't paint the rocky foreground.

Paint in the hills on the river valley, then tip the paper around to make the rivers (the white of the paper will be the rivers). Then paint in the mountaint to the right side of the paper. Take a rounded sponge, and using the paint on the paper, sponge the paint to make the dark plume, then sponge the plume to th left to make the sky. Use a pointy sponge to paint in the mountain as it fades to the left of the picture. or a rounded sponge (depending on the effect you want.)

If you've got some white construction paper or the art paper your kids might have, and use coffee (or a really dark tea) you could play around and practice. Which is all art is anyways-- playing around and practicing;-D

@203, ps For color (besides coffee) one could mix food colorings together to get the browns and licorice colors;-- )

@birdseyeUSA thanks for the link. I remember that story though not seen the video before, "Oh, I want to live so bad!"

Fireman there is a difference between a honest banker and what i classify as a bankster
the first provides a good service
the second is a sociopath that is a leach on society's neck bleeding it to death
examples; the people that trashed Iceland, aided in the trashing of Greece, and the economy of most of the world

enough of ranting i apologize to you and your wife if i offended you

Harmonic tremor at its lowest since the onset of the eruption, Plume height lowering, EQ activity slowing down and massive deflation on todays GPS readings. I think our lady is about to have a sleep. The glacier tongue lives to see another few decades possibly.

new EQ 1.5 8km

@parclair NoCal - nice ideas -Â alas, no kids, no supplies whatsoever except tea & coffee, & any previous drawng/painting art efforts only endlessly angry-making! But, hope others go for it! Now if it's fiber-related....Icelandic sheep come in lots of colors.....hmmmm...

But I have to go write in the names of all the tremor sites on my blown-up IMO map....

@birdseyeUSA ... a fibre fan? Are you on Ravelry.com?

@birdseye I have heard of an art professor who grades his students on the weight of their art-- the idea being, it take lot of practice to get that pic one is looking for. Tis true. lol;-D

Re fiber-- do you weave? Knit? Using thickly spun, fluffy yarns could get the effect too;-)

OT @beedragon, yes/no but know it @parclair spin knit weave felt

OT @birdseyeUSA. I'm beedragon on Ravelry (go figure!). You really should join and check it out if you haven't already. I knit and crochet. Learning to spin and weave would be way too addictive.

http://www.zazzle.com/eyjafjallajokull_tshirt-235191598124436456 :)

Someone captured the volcano kitten -http://www.zazzle.com/eyjafjallajokull_tshirt-235191598124436456

Nice earthquake intensity chart: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/image/intensity.png

@Reynir {217}: That is great. LMAO!

A few volcano-themed demots: http://www.motifake.com/searchpage.php?tag=volcano

Off the topic, but Turrialba shows some stronger activity/unrest in the seismic datas than usual today: http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/sismologia/sismogramas_linea.htm The whole mountain is surrounded by heavy rainclouds, the little plume looks a bit stronger than normel most likeley due to the wet weather. I always asked myself why Turrialba seems to be very nervous all the time, but actually this seems no sign of a future outbreak of the volcano. But what makes the volcano appear to be so nervous? Is it a result of the fumarole activity? We can see similar effect at the "Campi Flegrei" at Pozzuoli (Naples) right? Or is this incomparable. Oh an while talking about the "Campi Flegrei", I have found a very interesting webpage about the Campi Flegrei and the Solfatara of Pozzuoli (in English) with great pictures and explanations and interesting interviews http://www.solfatara.it/vulcano/en/index.php . There is also an interesting video (BBC Interview) with President Ing. Giacomo Di Salvo (IÂ´m sure Boris Behncke will know him) http://www.solfatara.it/vulcano/en/video.php?id=VI000020 Before visting this place in february this year I was searching the internet about the Solfatara and the "Campi Flegrei" for many days, but I did not find this very good page first - so maybe I can give a useful link for some of the volcanophiles.

Reynir {217}: What a great chart-- I sent it onto all my friends (especially teachers). I have to say here in ca the 3 quake gets a 2 response. Most people don't move until the doorways and windows make parallelograms. Even then, many go to check out the scene. ( I duck and cover if in skyscraper, run outside if on ground floor) lol ;-D

hello ,. imm looking at thorolfscam,. whats happening down at the mountain edge,. it looks like a fountain of somesort?

Nice pictures about the volcanic ash of EyafjÃ¶ll eruption are shown in this site:
http://tuzhanyo.blogspot.com/.
This is a Volcanology Blog in Hungary. Although the text is in Hungarian, but the pictures about the ash fragments are fine!

never mind, I think its just dust/dirt on the lence,,.

just read the news,EyjafjÃ¤ll is calming down,. wonder if its shortlived or long lasting,.
any new EQ activity?

Parclair even a 4 doesn't rattle nerves too much here in CA. I knew one guy who had been in the 1976 Guatamalan quake and unless it go up to 5+ he didn't pay any attention. LOL I guess we just have so many 2s 3s and 4s here that unless it really gets to rockin' nobody thinks much of it. One funny thing about the Loma Prieta quake was that I had just left UPS and I was on I80 on my way to Sac when I noticed the road seemed a bit rough. I thought they should be working on that part of the highway, too. Ididnt' think much about it until I decided to check that part of the road and it was smooth. The quake waves were coming at me perpendicularly and I was feeling the quake as I was driving. I even saw the waves, though I thought it was just cardboard road. LOL That was a pretty strong quake to make the road look like it was a corregated dirt road!

@Diane NoCal. I have to admit, I've only reacted to 6+ (heh) I've been within 100 miles of those, never close. Of course, the great central valley is nothing but sediment, so it really rocks when those waves come through. Most of the time, others have to tell me that there's a quake happening. lol

ashfall map for the next few days
http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/myndsafn/large/VORIS_2_0_1b_aska_20100520-…

Here is a great video from the BBC News of the eruption. Taken up close.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8695652.stm

Nice to hear the commentary for the film we've seen in other links JÃ³n, thanks.

Assessment 20 May 2010 18:00
According to radar obersvations, the plume has been at around 5 km/18,000 ft. today. The volcano has not been visible for two days due to cloudy weather. Ashfall has only been reported at FljÃ³tsdalur, the innermost farm in FljÃ³tshlÃÃ°, beginning last night and continuing all day.

Meltwater from the eruption site is still at a low. Water discharge in rivers around the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull glacier has decreased again after the increase caused by rainfall yesterday.

Radar images from TF-SIF show no major changes in the ice cauldrons where the cinder cone is forming. The eruption is mainly explosive and almost no lava flows down GÃgjÃ¶kull.

The height of the ash plume has decreased in the last few days which suggests a decrease in magma flow (considerably less than 50 tonns/sec) compared to the flow over the weekend and at the end of last week. Fluctuations in eruption activity and varying ashfall can still be expected.

#226 Jon: Thank you for that video!
I love the way that guy talks: ...a little bit dangerous... a little bit this or that *s*
But beautifull!

#226 Jon: Thank you for that video! Really nice to hear the explanation. Has anyone said how big those lava bombs are? I'm curious.

That's a lot of ash that hes been deposited on the cliff. The rock are disappearing and look like small lumps now.

View from inside an old lava tube??? Near FlÃ³tdhliÃ°, where the ash has been heavy.
http://www.emberphoto.com/home/page_id=9092/portfolio_id=2/image_filena…

It seems that for a clear view of Eyafjalla we have to wait till sunday:
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1885

VatnajÃ¶kull has some more EQ activity http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

Tremor going sharply down. Either the eruption is almost over or a refilling magma chamber is full. Either way this means highly reduced activity for the short term.

So, if the volcano goes to sleep now, you could get a keepsake...http://nammi.is/icelandic-volcano-ash-160-gr-p-2306.html

I think I would buy it if I knew the money went to farmers in southern Iceland who has been hit by the ash. But as a souvenir, I donÂ´t think so.

But I am thinking about collecting some of all the amazing photos in my own private photo book under the title EyjafjallajÃ¶kull 2010. Would be nice to have on the coffee table in the living room.

Plume is visible again at Thorocam http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

@StarBP, There has been inflation happening over the past 24 hours or so in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. But this sudden tremor drop is quite interesting. For instance I have almost stopped seeing the volcanic tremor on my geophone for the moment.

This however might just be a break in the eruption or a drop. We are just going to wait and see what goes on.

@snotra viking 236 Thanks for the link. I went fishing around, and there are some fine wools and knitted things on the site-- which $$ would go to locals--

take a look on the tremor plott on grimsvotn, is the one with the "hightest" spickes in comparison to the rest in this area.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/grf.gif

This link is for live weather satellite combined with live vodaphone(large view)
http://www.sat24.nl/Eyjafjallajokull-volcano.aspx

@Dan #231 Awww ... our lava pillows now have a blankie to match! :)

@JÃ³n FrÃmann [238]

"...We are just going to wait and see what goes on..."

If it goes beyond 5/21/2010 I would think it is a significant change. Based on what I can glean from poking around, and using that 15 minute quake rate idea that someone was talking about on here, it seems to spike in activity every 3.8 days. (on average). The last peak in that rate was 5/17/2010 at 7 in a 15 minute window.

"...We are just going to wait and see what goes on..."

Not until the plume changes direction we're not. Just shows how lucky we have been with wind direction in the last month.

Inflation and dropping tremor... Looks like full magma chamber to me. Something tells me an explosion will occur within a month. (Just a guess, though)

EQ under the bigger sister next door. Oooohhh spooky.

Can we hold our collective breath for a month?

Can I try and sum up my understanding of what's going on here - as gleaned from the knowledge / guesswork of those posting here over the last month who know more about this than I do...

We started with an initial rift and low viscosity basaltic magma. Then moved on to the current eruption site on Eyja. The initial charge of magma initiated melting of the mush left over from the previous 19thc eruption. The increased silica content resulting in a change to the Strombolian activity we've seen since then.

We are now seeing (or sensing) a drop in the strength of the eruption since its maximum, together with an EQ low and inflation. Either the eruption is grinding to a halt or given the strong suspicion that magma has been moving upwards for a while, Eyja is heading for another phase of activity.

This may take the form of a return to basaltic lavas possibly from a new vent or fissure, or alternatively,
a big bang as the newly replenished magma forces its way through the magma starting to clog the existing vent.

All comments and corrections welcome...

Do i hear a fat lady singing ?

@gordon 247 I think that about covers it, ollie;-)

ouch.. i forgott to tell what they concluded during the show:

Eyjafjalla may not have a "normal" Magmachamber, but instead a string of vents from deep in the earthcrust or.. how do i say it... several tubes that reach down into the mantel.

there is an articel i found about eyjafjalla, but i dont know if this wes allready posted.

http://www.earthmagazine.org/earth/article/339-7da-4-17

very 'fluffy' plume somewhat visible on Mulakot cam

@Stefan250 Thank you very much, I maybe missed it before, if it was here -

Parclair #224, I have only been within 100 miles of a large quake, too. In the '70s there was a 6+ in Oroville and I was lying down on my bed and the bed started to shake. I first though my mom was doing that as a joke, but she was in the kitchen. I said, "we're having an earthquake." She replied, "Yeah." I started wondering when it was going to stop. After it did I went over to my brother's to see how they were and as I was walking over there, I could see the ground roll with an aftershock. Strange feeling to see that and barely feel it. Sort of makes you feel dizzy.

My brother had just had his house built and I learned that my nephew told my sil, "Don't worry, Mom. It's just the house settling." LOL There were a few aftershocks we could feel and then we were too far away to feel them.

One thing about the mid-west is that they can feel a quake like that up to 300 miles away. We wouldn't feel a 7+ 300 miles away. Louisiana will feel a large quake up in the pacific north west that we won't feel. That is strange, but it has to do with the topography of the land.

As for the Eyjaf goings on, well, can't see anything right now and if the wind doesn't change, I guess we won't for a while. Arg.

Interesting article in Haraldur SigurÃ°sson's blog. Shockwaves.

From Google Xlate "This rate suggests that the eruption is vÃºlkanÃskt ("vulcanian eruption"). I will write about it next time phenomenon, and interpreting it in light of other information from precious Martin Rietze images."

http://vulkan.blog.is/blog/vulkan/entry/1057633/

@Diane-- In the 70's I was working for the county of Sacramento, and was down in the basement hunting for some files. Now, the old county building would shake and roll when a semi passed by outside. So the Oroville quake was really moving things around. The basement, of course, got the full force of the shaking. It's a really different sensation for a quake-- more in the quake than on the quake. The lights were zooming back and forth, hitting the ceiling. I thought they were going to fly off their hangers. I stayed where I was, even though there were 4 stories above me, since I figured those old army surplus steel filing cabinets, filled with paper, would protect me. heh. Wow.

There has been pulses of events from EyjafjallajÃ¶kull tonight, following the dropped volcano tremor. Why that is I don't know. But those events appear on my tremor plot clearly.

Here is my second video from my trip to EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpi3MW9_b_k

It appears that IMO web site has frozen up. I am recoding earthquakes that don't show up on IMO web page when they should.

When is the weather clearing up? EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is hiding far to long now.

Goodmorning all, spikes going up after low tremor http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

somehow one of my post got lost last night.

so i try to repost what i found out:

yesterday the swiss television brought a report about Eyjafjalla in they'r scienceshow "Einstein".

In Case someone understands swissgerman or german, you could find this interessting, and even if you dont understand it, you could still look at the Movie.

The story is about a swiss volcanologist who makes a visit to the eruption plume. but first he needs clearence (so he can visit the volcano from close). so he checks with a colleague in reykjavik to get the lastest updates about the eruption. there a icelandic volcanolist (woman), says, that they may have discovered some strange irregualrities concerning the magmachamber of eyjafjallajÃ¶kull. they put an arsenal of seismic instruments on the volcano an measured its height an movement. the seismomenters danced up wildly (you see that in the visualisation in the show). they suspect now, that there may be not a "normal" magmachamber beneath eyjafjallajÃ¶kull. instead they think that the volcano is feed trough several tubes that come deep from the earts mantel.

then they visit the volcano, but in my opinion mrietze has made better and quite similiar footage of the eruption. the only diference is, that in the show you can see which way they took to get onto the volcano.

you can download the podcast of the show in the mp4 format from her:

http://www.sf.tv/podcasts/feed.php?docid=einstein

Look for this entry:

Video: Sendung vom Donnerstag, 20. Mai 2010

Die Themen der Sendung: - Â«EinsteinÂ» im Auge des Eyjafjalla - Feuer und Asche: Vulkane verÃ¤ndern die Welt - Der Schweiz geht der Schotter aus - Â«EinsteinÂ» bei den Gleisbauern - Icarus - das Solar-Auto mit Wind-Energie - Das Ãl-Kommando in der ... (37 Min)

Download der Videodatei ---> Klick her

i forgot to post the picture i draw: http://img100.imageshack.us/i/unbenannt1hlq.jpg/

my question now is: What do you think of this conclusion? Seems a bit strange or not?

Wow... a lot of steam on the glacier! And termor activity rising. So - what is now going on?

Judging by the steam and the tremor peak (currently subsiding)i would say that there was a smaller breach of magma or a smaller part which collapsed in to the magma.

Seems to be an isolated event though which is currently receding.

14 EQ the last hours on Eya from which 1 on Katla http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/…

All i can think of at the moment is that song by Bjork "Its oh so quite".
Hopefully the volcano is finished and life can get back to normal for the Icelandic farmers who have been put out. Not to mention us here in Europe who had to suffer lots of disruption from ash clouds.
I could be wrong and it explodes into life again but i have a feeling this is coming to an end.
"Cue massive explosion"

It looks like that there is now more lava flow then before. But the harmonic tremor continues to drop at this moment. That is followed by a inflation on GPS sensors.

I have looked Thro cam and in last hour the view has been change more and more aggressive. Very dark plume - like moving more left or then there are two plumes(!) Could be also that the wind mix the plume? Ans a lot of steam.

I think the game is not over yet and she has something more in her's sleeve....

For the other dummies like me that haven't thought to look it up, 'cultural noise' is noise caused by human activities that appears on instruments and scribbles over nature's signals. Cultural noise includes Riverdance and other Irish jigs, no matter how much the highbrows want to disavow the 'cultural' part from that.

#260 Stefan: I actually liked the report.
Of course we here on scienceblogs have seen better, longer, maybe more impressive video-sequences. But for the general public it was very enlightning - as I heard at work today.

Good you posted the podcast-link. I couln't find it yesterday.

Would banks collapsing also be considered as Cultural noise.

We should have windshield wiper on Thoro cam ;)
No the weather lets us however at least to watch - interesting happenig in any case!

Voda seems to be down - at least to me.

#272 Timo: Voda is down for me too - a pity.
But at least we have Thorolfsfelli. And it seems a lot of steaming is going on on the upper part of the gletscher.

#272: The last image I found on Vodafone was timestamped at 09:00 UT this morning.

#270,1: Nope. That's a very uncultured noise. And by far the worst thing is that I'm very likely related to many of those b5ds.

voda lasted a bit longer here:
http://www.sat24.nl/Eyjafjallajokull-volcano.aspx
Some posts under the 'ash' category now too.

#273, Lavendel
I Wonder is it now melting bigger way through the glacier? What do you think?

In that case I think there are coming a lot of stuff down soon.

Damn! Now I lost the cam connection..that last one :(

The IceMetOffice thinks that the eruption is weakening and becoming more effusive. Might see a new lava stream heading down towards GÃgjÃ¶kull, then.

From IceNews, today

Water flow has increased significantly in the Svadbaelisa river in South Iceland near the Eyjafjallajokull volcano. The river was the scene of a mud flood earlier this week.

Workers have been cleaning the mud off the road near homes at Lambafell, where fears remain that water could inundate the houses.
The river itself is filled with mud, which has caused the water level to rise, causing it to break its banks in a few places, including over the road at the Onundarhorni Farm.

#277, 278: I think it could be a new lavastream. Wonder if we can see new "hot spots" in the FLIR camera ( wenn the ash is gone and the clouds etc.)

You lost the Thorolfsfellicam? For me it is working okay...maybe do a reload, that helps sometimes.

All seems quiet - perhaps too quiet. Jon's recorders are still showing some sort of harmonic activity interspersed with more explosive activity. Meanwhile the IMO is showing some quakes under serenely sleeping Katla, Stay tuned and we will see what happens.

New EQ's under Eya. Meaning? Nothing/everything/maybe/
Choose your answer...*s*

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

While we wait, 'volcano art.'
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/category/saturday-volcano-art/

I see the activity around Katla is in the vicinity of the GoÃ°abunga crypto-dome where, if memory serves, previous activity caused much concern, but was ultimately "full of sound and fury signifying nothing."

Hi all. It has been impossible for me to catch up on the posts for the last few days, so I do not know if anyone has posted this video yet...but it is very beautiful, and deserves a second mention even if it has been posted before.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdcx1i_iceland-eyjafjallajokull-may-1s…

Also, EQ activity is impressive today:

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/…

Lets all move to the latest post....

Wow, the plume is not much compared to previous days. In fact it looks more like steam than a plume with eruptive materiels. Hmm.

There are more yellow spots in the gigjokull area on the flir cam. On the thorolfsfelli cam there don't appear to be clouds in the area. Can anyone with access to the Vodaphone cam see anything?

Time-lapse of the vodafone webcam yesterday afternoon 20 May 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjY0NlniZWA

Gone to ash-post

Thanks for the comments, and I did learn that "regular" meteorological lightning is rare in Iceland (generally 5 days a year), but the IMO lightning map at http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html covers the UK, as well as parts of Scandinavia and northern Europe, which are rather more prone to thunderstorms. Looking at their map today, I am thinking now that the IMO doesn't distinguish between volcanic lightning and the "regular" kind - it's just all mixed together straight from the UK's data. My misunderstanding.

Sunday
23.05.2010 01:00:05 63.617 -19.630 1.3 km 1.4 90.01 9.9 km SW of BÃ¡sar first EQ of Sunday

Gallantly close and drunkenly slurring some bad karma

This really is great. I am just laying here in our hotel room in Killarney looking at a majority of these observations. Some of them are good and several really don't make very much sense in anyway. I'm just on a break nonetheless I simply weren't able to help myself from taking a look at this blog page inspite of my hotel room here in Killarney charges on-line consumption per hour.hotels in killarney town centre,hotels in killarney ireland

Yo. First of all - great blog! Secondly this article was also good and interesting to read, but I don't think everything you have said is how it is in reality. I will need to google about few things you have mentioned in your artcile to make sure. But anyway thanks for taking your time to write intresting artciles and good luck on writing other articles. P.S sorry for bad English, I aren't English native speaker.

So I attempted subscribing to your RSS .xml, and it kicked back a "Illegal Action" error... Can you tell me if it's just me or your site?

Volcanoes from space!

eklemetti — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 09:05:55 +0000

Volcanoes from space!

Actually, no the volcanoes aren't from space, but pictures of the volcanoes were taken from space. The NASA Earth Observatory has posted three more gems of volcanic activity taken by one of the fleet of earth imagers in orbit:

A recent image of Chaiten taken by EO-1. Image courtesy of the NASA Earth Observatory.

There is a great image of the busy Kamchatkan Peninsula, where four volcanoes are seen erupting in a single image - Kliuchevskoi, Bezymianny, Shiveluch and Karymsky. The plume from Karymsky is especially prominent as a grey streak above the white snow of the Russian winter (albeit it already April 2 when this image was taken).
The EO keeps presenting us with great shots of the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull-FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls eruption in Iceland. This one, taken April 4, shows both vents and the lava flows snaking down drainages out of the snow zone into the lowlands near the FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls Pass. Based on the activity last night, the eruption is still going strong. The Icelandic Met Office posted an image of the collected seismic data leading up to the eruption that shows the ascent of the magma as well.
Finally, as we approach the 2nd anniversary of the Chaiten eruption in Chile, we have a new image (taken April 3) of the dome and surrounding landscape around the volcano. It is remarkable how much the new domes have filled in the caldera. Soon, the old caldera will no longer be a negative relief feature on the map and Chaiten will again be a "mountain" rather than a hole in the ground.

eklemetti Wed, 04/07/2010 - 05:05

Your Chaiten question also makes me wonder if this activity is cyclical.
1)Eruption clears plug
2)Eruption fills previous caldera
3)Climactic blast creates new caldera
4)Dormancy follows after new material plugs vent
5)go to step 1

At the rate the current caldera is filling it might not take too long to answer this! Save maybe for step #4 (9000 years was it?) The webcam shows change in the dome size everyday.

hello

i have a follow up on a blog that was made here a few days a go that was for Redoubt volcano

http://newsminer.com/bookmark/6981915

The NASA EO satellite image managements is very kind to us here. They've responded generously to a humble request for image assistance.

Thank-you so very much, NASA EO! You rock!

The dormancy time of ChaitÃ©n was later estimated in 300-450 years, but the activity could be still dangerous between eruptions.

I'm not sure if that was already mentioned somewhere but there was another interesting article posted on Wednesday on the JPL website: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2010-117
"A NASA research team is using the latest advances in satellite artificial intelligence to speed up estimates of the heat and volume of lava escaping from an erupting volcano in Iceland. [..]"

Totally go along with writer. At last somebody has the cojonies to tell it like it is.

CoulÃ©es!

eklemetti — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 08:27:47 +0000

CoulÃ©es!

As a volcanologist, I am partial to impressive lava flows, especially in volcanoes that erupt material that you'd think wouldn't produce big flows. For example, there are quite a few volcanoes in the Chilean Andes that erupt dacite lavas, which are relatively viscous (sticky), so you might expect it to erupt explosively. However, you can get large dacitic to rhyolitic lava flows, quite commonly, and these large flows are called coulÃ©es (a "volcanic dome flow").

Lllullaillaco volcano on the Chile/Argentina border. Note the very prominent coulÃ©e with flow levees. Click on the image to see a larger version. Image courtesy of the NASA EO.

I bring this up because the NASA Earth Observatory posted a great shot of a volcano on the Chilean-Argentine border - Llullaillaco - where you can see the gorgeous coulÃ©e that came down the side of the volcano (see above). The flow has a flow front that is likely tens of meters tall with impressive flow levees on each side, where lava that was erupted first was pushed out of the way by subsequent lava (like a bulldozer).

Chao flow in Chile. Image courtesy of Volcano World.

You see these types of flows commonly in the Andes, most famous in the biggest dacite lava flow on the planet, the Chao Dacite (see above). This flow is over 14 km long, has obvious flow features like pressure ridges and a flow front that approaches 500 meters tall! There is some pumice associated with the flow that might have come from the clearing of the vent before the eruption, but it appears to be dominantly effusive - you can see on the image that there isn't even an obvious crater from where the flow erupted.

Lava flows on the south flank of Aucanquilcha, Chile. Image by Erik Klemetti, November 2000. Click on the image to see a larger version.

Another Chilean volcano with impressive coulees is Aucanquilcha (see above), near the Chilean-Bolivian border. I have a special fondness for Aucanquilcha because I wrote my dissertation on the volcano (and even have a paper on its volcanic history). The edifice itself is a series of long dacite lava flows, some of which reach 5-7 km in length, with very little preserved evidence for explosive volcanism going with it. Some of the flows (see above) have prominent flow levees and steep flow front. The volcano as a whole is really four stacked domes (see image at the GVP - taken by me!) of these coulÃ©e-style dacite flows.

eklemetti Wed, 03/31/2010 - 04:27

Icelandic eruption from space

eklemetti — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 09:58:14 +0000

Icelandic eruption from space

Alright, I'm actually in Wisconsin right now for a wedding, but this was too cool to pass up ... the folks from the NASA Earth Observatory sent me this image (Natural-color, 10m/pixel) from the Advanced Land Imager aboard EO-1 of the Eyjafjallajokull-FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls eruption, both taken on March 24, 2010.

The FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls eruption in Iceland, taken March 24, 2010. Image courtesy of the NASA Earth Observatory. Click on the image for a larger version.

You can clearly see the flow heading down the drainage to the east, slowly snaking down the snow covered area. I think the steam plume on far east (right) represents the nose of the flow as it encounters snow/water. The lava fountains are also seen on the image as well - the image does a great job of giving you a better sense of scale for this relatively small (so far) fissure eruption.

UPDATE 3/26/2010 3:21 EDT: For more details, here is the full NASA EO page on the eruption image.

This isn't stopping from people in the media getting uppity about the climate effect of the eruption - or, in particular, it Katla erupts - but at this point, it is still anyone's guess. There is also some great, close-up video footage of the eruption as well - but be sure to check out the comments on Eruptions for other great links left by readers on the eruption.

eklemetti Fri, 03/26/2010 - 05:58

Tags

NASA Earth Observatory

Beautiful imagery of a gorgeous eruption. But this isn't just natural color remote sensing, is it? I hardly expect green along the margins of an active lava flow over ice and snow! Is there some thermal imagery superimposed?

Hi Erik , i just read the article you linked to people getting
uppity about the climatic effects of a possible eruption of Katla. Their suggestion is that if Katla were to erupt that the world would be plunged into a global winter is just lazy sensationalist journalism. A bit like the hysteria recently over the yellowstone earthquake storm.

Great image of the Eyjafjallajokull-FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls eruption.

Lovely and informative photo.

Thanks NASA EO, for your thoughtful provision of the image!

The green along the margin of the lava flow is an artifact of the satellite sensor. The true-color image is the combination of a 30m/pixel RGB image with a 10m/pixel panchromatic image. Each color pixels covers the same area as 9 panchromatic pixels, so you'll occasionally get odd colors in high contrast areas.

(Sorry Erik, I don't have a URL - I'm an ordinary Iceland enthusiast with an interest in geology)

It seems to me that some commentators are confused about which Icelandic volcano is which and what can be expected of them. Gary Hufford, quoted in Science Fair, seems to be thinking not of Katla, but of the notorious Laki basalt fissure eruption of 1783, of which the effect on US weather was only one result. In Iceland, the pollution was catastrophic and much northern Europe was affected as well.

Let's hope the Fimmvorduhals eruption remains small and remarkable only for ending a first-rate walking route. An extended Laki-type event would have very widespread consequences and other nasties, of a more local nature, have occurred here in the past.

To look on the bright side of life, other Icelandic eruptions of the last 30 years, such as Krafla & Hekla, seem to have passed without major problem or hysteria. May Fimmforduhals do likewise.

Thanks to R Simmon for the color explanation and to NASA's Earth Observatory for consistently providing such stunning photos of the world's most interesting places and processes.

Anne Johnson is a contributor to another useful and informative science blog, Highly Allochthononous. Worthwhile bookmarking for regular reading.

From volcano.si.edu (our fav volcano catalog source),
Katla Volcano Summary webpage:

'Although most historical eruptions have taken place from fissures inside the caldera, the EldgjÃ¡ fissure system, which extends about 60 km to the NE from the current ice margin towards GrÃmsvÃ¶tn volcano, has been the source of major Holocene eruptions.'

From Volcanodiscovery dot com webpage on Katla:
'Katla has been the source of frequent subglacial basaltic explosive eruptions that have been among the largest tephra-producers in Iceland during historical time and has produced dacitic explosive eruptions during the Holocene.'

From the SI Katla volcano eruption history webpage:
(Katla eruptions, 1700s)

Start Date: 1755 Oct 17
Stop Date: 1756 Feb 13
Volcanic Explosivity Index: 5
Tephra Volume: 1.5 x 109 m3
Area of Activity: E-W fissure, caldera
Eruptive Characteristics:
Radial fissure eruption
Subglacial eruption
Explosive eruption

Start Date: 1721 May 11
Stop Date: 1721 Oct 15 Â± 45 days
Volcanic Explosivity Index: 5
Tephra Volume: 1.2 x 109 m3
Eruptive Characteristics:
Subglacial eruption
Explosive eruption

What is not mentioned in the USA article is that these eruptions occur during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling event, predominantly felt in the Northern Hemisphere (and to a limited extent in the Southern Hemisphere), brought about by proposed mechanism melange of climate-altering effects from modulations in solar activity (coupled solar-terrestrial magnetic field anomalies), large natural climate cycle variations and natural- and human activity-induced aerosols.

Mea culpa: Jefferson, not Johnson, geosciences coauthor with Chris Rowan, http://scienceblogs.com/highlyallochthonous

Good points Passerby! Also, let us not forget that back in those days food supplying all our nutritious needs were not available year-round from the local supermarket. At certain times of the year, notably late winter through early spring, people were malnutritioned from a lack of vitamins and thus more susceptible to disease (which is also why the "Spanish Flu" killed so many in the aftermath of WWI). It is easily realised that a major volcanic eruption at the "wrong time of the year" would have severe repercussions on the ensuing growth season an later result in an increased mortality from malnutrition, mainly through vitamin deficencies.

Two new videos of the lava cascades into two gorges near EyjafjallajÃ¶kull at the RUV web site:

http://www.ruv.is/frett/hraunfossar-renna-i-hvannargil

Make sure to click on:

Horfa Ã¡ kvikmyndir frÃ¡ HvannÃ¡rgili

Horfa Ã¡ kvikmyndir frÃ¡ Hrunagili

This image is great! :)

Now, back to science. In the last 24 hours there was one deep earthquake recorded, it was a small event. But it had the depth of ~21km. For me that indicates that there is more magma flow coming up EyjafjallajÃ¶kull interior. There has also been minor movement of THEY GPS station to west, so it indicates that the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull volcano is starting to expand again. But next few days are going to make it clear if the expansion starts again or not.

There is a lot of wind on my geophone. The wind at this location is ~10m/sec.

Boris or Erik isn't Katla just part of the MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull caldera and isn't that caldera over 10km wide? Also doesn't it cover an area 110 km2?

This image is simply great.

Passerby (and all) - I took recommend keeping up with Anne over at Highly Allochthonous ... and thats not even because she once had an office across from mine!

Randall - Katla does have a 10x14 km caldera ~ slightly larger than the caldera at Crater Lake in Oregon. It is definitely not a system to be trifled with if it does begin to show signs of life.

Erik, Thanks for the info...One more question though...Does that mean MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull Caldera and Kata Caldera are one and the same? Here is the link I am looking at just add the www. to earthice.hi.is/page/ies_katlamonitoring

MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull glacier is on top of Katla and completely covers it.

Here is more info.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-03=

First, thank you (takk fyrir) to everyone for your wonderful links and generous conversation; I have been glued to this site for news, speculation, and hypotheses on the FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls eruption. I was in Iceland when the eruption began and took a trek on Sunday to see how close I could get (travelling as part of the ReykjavÃk Grapevine journalistic staff, where James now posts his column). My friends and I could only really view the expansive cloud of smoke from the site due to inclement weather, but it was thrilling to drive out there nonetheless. I was also quite amazed that we made it reasonably close to the site via HvolsvÃ¶llur and beyond FljÃ³tshlÃÃ°; we never encountered any authorities. Anyway, I'm away from Iceland for a couple of months and greatly appreciating all the posts on this site.

I do have one question (or even request -- James? JÃ³n?). I'm interested in acoustic ecology, and am curious to know if anyone has taken quality sound recordings at the eruption site yet. I'd love to hear them and to know what's being recorded.

Thanks Jon but I am asking about MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull Caldera, I know the glacier on top of Katla is called MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull, I am wondering about the MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull Caldera there is a difference.

"Monitoring of ice cauldrons
Overview

MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull is the southernmost glacier in Iceland and is almost 600 km2. It covers the upper part of a large volcano. The mountain is about 30 km in diameter and the highest peaks reach 1500 m a.s.l. In the center of the ice cap is the MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull caldera. It is oval in shape with the longest axis NW-SE and covers an area 110 km2. The highest points of the ice cap lie on the caldera rim and include GoÃ°abunga, HÃ¡abunga, Austmannsbunga, Enta, Entukollar (see maps and pictures 1 and 2). Within the caldera the ice is hundreds of meters thick."
earthice.hi.is/page/ies_katlamonitoring
My question is whether Katla is just part of that larger caldera or is the MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull caldera and Katla caldera one and the same.

@Randall, I think they are one and the same, but I am not sure. Give the experts here time to answer. I am sure we will find out soon.

Diane Hey I thought about you last week when I was panning for gold up in Coosa County. I didn't find much gold but did find a couple of nice Beryl crystals....one was almost 3 pounds. I also found a few decent Cassiterite crystals.

MODIS may have observed the eruption plume on the first day of the eruption:

Elevated MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth near Iceland volcanic eruption

@Randall Nix, Katla is just a other name for MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull. It has a older history in it self. Many people in the area refer to it in a small patch of rock that stands out of the glacier as Katla. But that is just part of the caldera rim.

Today the eruption in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is one week old, and shows no signs of stopping. If anything, it looks more powerful now then few hours ago.

Jon Thanks but I thought Katla was actually the name of a female dragon from a Swedish fairytale;) I understand what you are saying but I think Katla is part of the much bigger and older MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull Caldera.

Boris, Erik what do you think?

@ Randall Nix -- I'm no expert, but in all the reading I've done over the past month we've been watching EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, I've picked up the following bits of information:

1. jÃ¶kull is the Icelandic word for "glacier."
2. The volcano under EyjafjallajÃ¶kull (the glacier) is called simply Eyjafjalla.
3. I have never seen any of the experienced vulcanologists refer to an eruption of MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull (they may sometimes refer to an eruption at or under MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull); always they speak of the actual eruptions as being Katla's.

So, as I understand it, the glacier is MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull and the volcano (and caldera) under it is Katla. (Why the names are not even similar is a question for the locals.)

chezjake Thanks but lets see what Boris or Erik say. I have seen several papers which talk about Katla being a big caldera inside an even bigger MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull caldera.

Hey chezjake or anyone else up now look at mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

It looks like the second newer lava flow has almost reached the valley below. It also looks like another small lava flow maybe starting over the edge in the center...to the right of the 2nd flow....Can anyone else see that small steam plume? It has been steadily growing for the past 30 min. I also noticed the water flowing at the bottom left of the screen has also increased since yesterday.

@Chezjake. A sociolinguist would tell you that humans invent words and name features that have a bearing or influence on their lives because we do have a need for precision in speech. The volcano presents certain hazards and a mention of that will bring forth the desired associations in the mind of the listener whereas if you describe, say, travel, a glacier presents challenges that are different from non-glaciated areas. Thus there is a need for a name for both volcano and glacier to the indigenous population, something that can be hard to understand for us non-indigenous people from afar who are not conversant with the challenges of living in different climes.

While on the subject, @Anna, JÃ³n and others fluent in Icelandic, how many different words for snow do you have please? Prof Peter Trudgill of Norwich University rose to fame on the back of the dicovery that where English had but the one word for snow, Eskimos had 18 (this has been challenged, but he definitely had a point).

That's the Katla/Myrdalsjoekull drainage on the right side of the image, yes?

@Randall and everybody wondering about what names are used for which volcano, the Katla-MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull mystery.

If I recall this correctly, "Katla" is the word that the Icelanders applied to the witch they thought was the volcano living under the glacier, which they called "MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull". More recently, geologists have applied the latter name to the whole volcanic edifice and the caldera. So Katla and MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull is very much the same thing, and there is only one caldera to this volcano.

It's a bit like the usage of "Mongibello" and "Etna" at our volcano here, Mongibello being the name that was used for the mountain in the past (it is based on "mons", which is Latin and means "mountain", and "jebel", which is Arab and means ... "mountain"!), but in the geological framework of Etna it is used only for the most recent (less than 15 thousand years old) part of the volcano. To make things complete, the locals continue to call it "'a muntagna", which means, after all ... mountain.

Do every now and then check the "www-dot-ruv-dot-com" web site. Currently it has a link to a really, really spectacular video of the second lava cascade (in the HvannÃ¡rgil canyon) on its title page.

It looks like deflation has turned into slight inflation. I wish I could find more GPS stations to go by.
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/gps/predorb/theypred.html

Indeed, I spotted the inflation trend last night. I am onto my contacts in the team monitoring this and will get back once I have more information, but as of last night:
- THEY is showing some inflation
- the two new stations on the ridge are showing very little of anything, actually
- the station on Myrdalsjokull is moving WEST, which is as of yet unexplained

More as I get it. :)

Thank you James. You have no idea how much I envy you. You did put yourself in the right place at the right time though. Congratulations.

Still working on getting up to the fissure, though! I think it's going to happpen tomorrow. Fingers crossed!

Again, anything anyone wants a photo of specifically, just ask and I will try.

The Volcanism Blog has an article with useful links (the New Scientist article was interesting re atmosphere):
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/eyjafjallajokullfimmvorduhals…

Drat. I meant to post this in 33. (my browser and the Volcanism Blog have an odd relationship)
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/03/26/eyjafjallajokull-update-26-ma…

@James
I guess what I would like to know is, what does it sound like, what does it feel like.

@Randall you lucky bum! I wish I could find something like that. Where we go, there isn't much in the way of anything but leaverites. There are quite a few volcanic bombs, though. They are very obvious as they are black. There is a lot of porphory of different sizes there, too. Some of the bedrock is porphory with rather large inclusions in it and you can find small rocks with small inclusions in them. If, and that is a big if, you are fortunate, you might find a piece of jasper. Lots of quartz, limestone, and plain ol' river rock. We are just waiting for the weather to cooperate so we can get down there. We are suppose to get some snow next week! Anyway, we are looking forward to having a lot of fun.

@James, where is that station in MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull that is moving west ? I believe that inflation events have started in MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull, but it is currently small and does not show properly up as of yet.

This eruption is going to be a long one. I am sure of that, there is a bit of flux of inflow of magma. But it remains rather stable besides that.

I'm not sure - I'm waiting to hear back on this amongst other things. I believe my source (who dropped me a very quick message) may mean the station at Godaland (GOLA), but I need to confirm this.

Bear in mind that Katla has been inflating very slowly but steadily for a number of years now, so some inflation would be expected - *more rapid* inflation would be the worrying thing.

Diane Check out the last Coosa County map on this page. My spots are not on here but lots of others are.

alabamamaps.ua.edu/historicalmaps/counties/coosa/coosa.html

The map shows most of the old prospects and the different minerals that can be found there.

I also have some places in Tallapoosa County (map at bottom of this page) I go to...one is outside of a little place called Jacksons Gap....All of the gold prospects on this map are maked with a "G".

alabamamaps.ua.edu/historicalmaps/counties/tallapoosa/tallapoosa.html

Just add the www. to the address.

Randall, Diane! Do you cut gems as well? I used to do a lot of faceting (hobby) in years past. Gems, the gift of volcanoes to man...

Henrik I do cabochon work (hobby), star sapphires, beryl, turquois, lapis and just about any other stone that will take a good polish. If you go to this page and scroll down you can see a few sapphires (corundum)I found in Alabama.

corunduminium.com/oldsitebackup/page/New.htm

Just add the www.

Very nice specimens, Randall! We have nothing as exciting in Sweden even if I live an hour by car from LÃ¥ngban.

There is a new web camera up and running, it is a lot closer to the eruption the other web cameras.

mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/

I found a video from this week showing Turrialba Volcano (Costa Rica) with a very strong activity. The activity of the volcano was later explained by some experts. Unfortunately I donÂ´t speak spanish but I would love to understand what they explain. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWCRg0DlbQY

Henrik You have sapphires there don't you? With all of those mountains I bet you have some great complex pegmatites or high grade metamorphic rocks close by.

Jon NICE view...thanks!

I posted this and a few more words on the other (24 March) thread, but since I find it important to underline a few things regarding the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption and the speculations about a possible extension of the volcanic activity to nearby Katla, I re-post an excerpt here.

Regarding those among the bloggers here who are very convinced about the Katla connection - we must be careful about assuming that what we believe does correspond to nature. I think it is a *possibility* but nothing more that this current eruption might be followed by something more serious at Katla. I don't think it's very likely, though. There is a ridiculously great quantity of absurdly closely spaced volcanoes on this planet that are known to act strictly independently - they have different magma chemistries, some produce frequent powerful explosive eruptions and their close neighbors make small phreatic explosions every few hundred years. And then there is Etna - this is a volcano that teaches us a tremendous amount of things about volcano and magma dynamics and their endless complexities. At Etna we have four summit craters, the ditance between them being a few hundred meters, and you can't imagine how independently from each other they behave nearly all the time. Because one produces violent activity does not mean that its neighbor will do so as well. Very often this simply does not happen and we've always been wondering how this is possible. While we don't know the answer it definitely is not only possible, it is nearly the rule. Only very few times have we seen that two, three or even all four summit craters of Etna are ALL affected simultaneously by some massive magma supply (this happened once, in 1998-1999).

I remember in the 1970s there was a lot of talk about Katla being "overdue" (there's no such thing as "overdue" at a volcano because they don't obey to strict time frames as we are accustomed to), and when, after the 1973 Heimaey eruption, Katla remained silent, there was a hypothesis that Heimaey actually caused some pressure relief from Katla or diverted magma away from it, and therefore the next eruption might come much later. I don't know how plausible that might be, but one could also suspect something similar in this case, with as much reason as one might expect Katla to blow now because EyjafjallajÃ¶kull does.

Conclusions: yes, it may happen that Katla will follow the current eruption, because it has happened twice in the past. But we know far too little to say this is the rule, and that it will happen this time. As I said before, I'd expect to see some geophysical signals at Katla before she joins the party. I would not place any bet on seeing Katla erupt anytime soon. We're all blinded by that immense seismic swarm before this eruption, but there is NO proportional relationship between the intensity and duration of a seismic swarm and the magnitude of the ensuing eruption. Again, Etna has taught us that much over the years. This one here might very well go into history as a happily small, harmless, though very scenic eruption, much publicized due to the internet age (there wouldn't have been that much talk about it 20 years ago), and nothing more. Of all possible scenarios, this is the most likely one.

Henrik Oh man I envy you, you have some great places:)
neab.net/travel/2000/kopparberg/barted.htm#CORUND
minsocam.org/MSA/collectors_corner/arc/langban.htm
springerlink.com/content/wu73878234215076/

Come Ã¨ bella la nuova webcam! Meglio di quella del Kilauea!

Boris, in your opinion how much is the emission rate of the eruption right now?
It seems (but i can't be sure) that now the fissure is much more reduced in a single vent, or at least surely less vents than at start

@Dario, it's true, the activity seems to be concentrating more and more at one or two vents, which is very typical for this type of eruption. In Heimaey in 1973 at the start there was a spectacular fissure 1.5 km long, and after a few days it concentrated all at one vent, where the main cone grew up. In Hawaii, the current eruption of Kilauea started at a long fissure as well and then concentrated at one vent, which became Pu'u 'O'o.

Difficult to say what rate this eruption has - maybe some 20-30 cubic meters per second, or less. It's not a big eruption, and I am very skeptical about all these speculations that it might become something big and catastrophic. Certainly attention is always warranted and I am sure the Icelanders are prepared for the (remote) possibility that the eruption might intensify or some activity might also occur at Katla. I am not familiar with these Icelandic volcanoes, most of my experience is from Etna, which is different in many senses but also has a few things in common with this eruption, like the type of activity (Strombolian - Hawaiian, alkalic basalt). The last eruption of Etna in May 2008 began nearly the same way as this one, and it then continued, at a very low rate, for 417 days. I wish all volcano fans who have the possibility to see this eruption that it will last equally long without doing any harm.

Saluti dalla Sicilia!

Shhhhhhhhh....Boris I think it heard you.....Take a look at the web cam now;)

Wow, just flaring due to the darkness setting in, or is it really going crazy? Sure looks like the latter!

The webcam view actually shows that it's considerably weaker this evening than during the past few days ... though there are alternating moments of higher and lower level activity. But there's one thing that is quite amazing, I already noted that yesterday: all those little planes and helicopters flying around it at nightfall, that seems like some dense air traffic there.

Icelandic newspapers do indeed report that there is concern about so many people trying to get close to the eruption - it's in a quite hostile terrain and it seems many people try to get there without being sufficiently equipped. That reminds me of Etna again: during the last eruption (2008-2009), the Alpine Rescue Service had to go out more than 60 times to pick up people in distress, very often young locals including guys in flip-flops and ladies in high-heeled shoes (ok that was during the summer, but still, on Etna it's cold at night in the summer). And, unfortunately, we also lost a friend on Etna in December 2008, who was actually well-equipped but still underestimated the extreme conditions that there are on a big volcanic mountain.

@Boris Behncke, actually. According to tremor plots the eruption is gaining strength at the moment. There where few earthquakes in the area that did signal that strength in the eruption was about to start.

There have been fluctuation in this eruption from the start. But it has overall been gaining strength as the time passes. This has already been going one week with no signs of stopping.

@JÃ³n, first of all thank you for all the information you've shared with us over these days, and for the seismic graphs you set up, extremely precious and helpful for understanding that something important was indeed going on and something was going to happen.

Looking at the tremor graphs at
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html
I find these look very stable, and visibly the eruption is very stable as well (even declining a bit in the past few hours - but interestingly the lower frequencies have become predominant at some stations), although in the webcam views the fountains are less high than yesterday. That's what I see from a distance of thousands of kilometers and it might be giving a false impression, you're certainly much closer to the place. I just try to behave as though this were Etna that I'm seeing in the images and the seismic activity - I am part of the team that does surveillance and monitoring of Etna and the other Sicilian volcanoes. So, before the eruption started I was pretty convinced that there would be an eruption, although I had no means of saying what kind of eruption, and when exactly it would happen. Now here we have an eruption that looks like a photocopy of many eruptions at Etna - we've even had such lava cascades (hraunfoss) at the Southeast Crater on Etna in 2006!

So, if the webcam images show an activity that appears weaker than yesterday, this doesn't mean it will get stronger again tomorrow. It's difficult to say. Maybe this will be like the KrÃ¶flueldar (the sequence of rifting-related eruptive episodes at Krafla 1975-1984) with short eruptions going off and on for a long time. It's definitely different from the last EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption (1821-1823), which occurred in the caldera and produced silica-rich magma, and also for this reason I would be reluctant to say that because last time Katla woke up it will also do this time. Unless there are signs of unrest at Katla it will probably not erupt, but I say "probably" rather than "not at all". Anything is possible at active volcanoes. But some things are more likely than others, and for the moment the available information makes me think, this is it. This is the eruption, and like this it will go as long as it is fed by magma, and then it will be over. For the moment. But maybe tomorrow everything will look different. You JÃ³n, you are much closer to the sources, both the volcano and those who are studying it, and I don't want to interfere with their work. I just wish this will be the happy little eruption it seems to be so far, and not develop into something worse, although I know many volcano freaks would just love to see exactly this happen (like I did when I was younger and not yet living on an active volcano!).

Keep up the excellent work JÃ³n, and we'll be continuing to discuss this fascinating and beautiful eruption, I am sure.

Boris Look at:
mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/
You really don't think it has picked up in intensity over the past few hours?

@Boris Behncke
Last summer i saw Stromboli for the first time (and it is bad for a geologyst).
I saw Etna only about 10 years ago, but only looking it from Catania. I need soon to visit the craters.
But i live INSIDE Campi Flegrei so...

Krafla 1984 eruption had a much more emission rate than this? Or the lava field was the result of a longer duration of that eruption?

@Randall - consider it's now full night there, and that's another of my Etna (and Stromboli) experiences that at night the activity appears much stronger because you see even the smallest incandescent fragments, which are not visible during daylight.
But in this moment, seen via the new webcam it does indeed seem quite intense - maybe it seemed weaker from the other webcam because the cone has grown so high, and it obstructs a direct view on the fountains. There's quite a lot of material thrown way over the crest of the cone to the left. I also saw a news report on mbl-dot-is just a few minutes ago, where Magnus T. Gudmundsson, one of the foremost volcanologists in Iceland, is cited as saying "it's stable, and if anything, the eruption has grown stronger today". So maybe I have gotten a wrong impression from watching the "old" webcam where the activity appears considerably lower than yesterday (but after all, the new webcam wasn't there yesterday so there is no way we can make a comparison).

@Randall, chezjake and Henrik:

JÃ¶kull is indeed the Icelandic word for "glacier."

Katla is the feminine form of ketill. Kettle (or cauldron) in English.

"The volcano under EyjafjallajÃ¶kull (the glacier) is called simply Eyjafjalla"

No, not exactly. There's a region in S-Iceland called EyjafjÃ¶ll (the nominative form) which translates to "Island Mountains" or "Isle Mountains" in English. My guess is that this mountain range, or what you call it, draws its name from the fact that they rise very steeply from the flat ground and thus can be said to resemble islands jutting up from the sea, similarly to the Westman Islands, but I don't really know.

The glacier which is not too far inland simply draws its name from these mountains: EyjafjallajÃ¶kull or the Isle Mountains Glacier.

The volcano UNDER the glacier has no name as far as I know. I don't think people were in the habit of putting a name to features in the landscape that aren't visible to the eye :)

I don't know why the volcano under MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull has a name (Katla). I suppose it's because it's been very active over the centuries. Also, Katla has kind of visible and recognizable form even though it's normally snow-covered.

"So, as I understand it, the glacier is MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull and the volcano (and caldera) under it is Katla. (Why the names are not even similar is a question for the locals.)".

Well, MÃ½rdalur draws its name from a nearby valley called MÃ½rdalur. MÃ½r(i) is realated to the English word 'mire' and dalur to 'dale'. So MÃ½rdalur translates to Bog Valley or Marsh Valley or something like that. And Katla means cauldron which is very appropriate.

Boris I know what you mean about the night making it appear more intense but I watched it just before dark and it really seemed to pick up then....Does it seem to have a more explosive nature to it than before?

@Randall - not much more explosive (that would mean, higher degrees of fragmentation and more ash), but more voluminous. And with that level of activity and so much material thrown onto the cone, that cone will continue to grow rapidly.

Make sure to visit the Flickr web site, there are great numbers of hauntingly beautiful photos of this eruption coming up: http://www.flickr.com/search/?s=rec&ss=1&w=all&q=eldgos&m=text

(exchange "eldgos" with "iceland volcano", or "EyjafjallajÃ¶kull", or "hraunfoss" or whatever comes into your mind that might lead to photos of this eruption)

@Boris Behncke, I use a bit different tremor plot. It is this one here, hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/tremor.html

According to a report few days ago, there have been lava lakes forming in the crater that has been forming. That in it self apparently reduces the eruption light show, or the amount of material thrown up in the air. But for now it appears that lava lakes have broken there way out.

Looking at the web cameras that I have had for the past few days, the eruption is now more powerful today then yesterday. It is clear, as there is more light in the darkness now then yesterday.

According to news reports, the lave has started to flow south of the crater and in the direction and over the hike path in that direction.

@Randall

Eruptions ebb and flow, that is what they all do. You cannot take what a specific eruption does in the context of hours or days, and try to predict what it will do in the future. Especially for a volcanic system that we have limited knowledge about. One cannot warn the world of impending doom because a lava fountain has grown from 150 meters to 300 meters in 2 hours.

It is true that this kind of eruption does show sometimes significant fluctuations, we've seen that often enough on Etna. What we see here is actually very normal for a basaltic eruption. So far. Gordys is right, there is no way to predict or forecast how the system will behave in the long term, and there's no use speculating unless we do actually get data on which we can build our speculations, like geophysical (seismic, deformation) and geochemical (gas and fluid chemistry) signals.

I do actually think we can see the southward flow in the new webcam, it's going to the left. I wonder which path this flow has taken - so far the cone has been breached to the west and north. Is there a breach to the south now? No way of telling from the webcam views.

@Anna
Thanks for the explanation! Kind of delightful in its own way.

What an amazing text-book eruption this has been. Do they ever come quite like this? What a little beauty it has been.

Gordys Ahhhhhh where do you get "One cannot warn the world of impending doom because a lava fountain has grown from 150 meters to 300 meters in 2 hours."

I never said any of that, I don't think I have predicted anything today...so please concern yourself with the things that you say and quit putting words in my mouth.

@Randall

From you past comments since you have been visiting here, and from your website.

Gordys I remember you now...You assume a lot and you know what assuming will do for you.

@Boris Behncke, there is a new steam signal where the southward lava flow is going at the moment. The steam did just appear few min. ago.

I am also afraid of new vents or fissures opening up in coming days. There have been earthquaeks in the area, and in most cases there is also a increase in the eruption when that happens. Indicating more flow to the the current eruption fissure. I fear that at one time the flow increase is going to be more then the output of that crater and then things are going start opening up nearby.

There have been earthquakes up to ML2.7 registering at ~100 meters depth SSW and SSE of BÃ¡sar since the eruption started, and I believe that is a warning sign of more fissures or vents opening up soon.

Also, thanks for nice words! I started the Hekla seismometer in June 2009 to monitor this area. But mostly Hekla volcano.

@ 22,23,26 The late Astrid Lindgren borrowed the name "Katla" from the Icelandic volcano for her fairy tale "The Brothers Lionheart".

In regard to words for snow and ice, I think one branch of the Sami (Lapps) in Sweden has the record, with an entire book of such terms and their explanations. For instance, if you are in need of liquid water, you need to know if that hole in the lake ice is surrounded by thick or thin/brittle ice, therefore you need two different words. Since the lapps travel between several climate/vegetaion zones while herding reindeer, they probably need a greater vocabulary for nature than the inuit/eskimos.

@JÃ³n, that looks spectacular indeed. I see they (those who put up the webcam) also play around with the zoom-wide angle and now give us a more panoramic perspective. Amazing what technology we have today - nothing like this when Heimaey erupted back in 1973 and I began to be interested in volcanoes!

What is true is that this is a very interesting eruption and I think many of us are very curious what is going to become of this. Maybe what you say is true, some basaltic fissure eruptions are quite complex and go through different phases with new vents opening even months after their start. It is not very common, but there are a few examples - Lanzarote 1730-1736, Tolbachik 1975-1976, Kilauea's current Pu'u 'O'o eruption, Krafla 1975-1984, and obviously, Laki in 1783-1784 ... although all of these events except Krafla started off much more vigorously than this one here.

We will watch and see ...

@Gordys, I did discuss a lot with Randall during the Yellowstone seismic swarm, and what I understood is that he was indeed concerned but also very curious and willing to learn and understand. What we see of him these days is extremely laid-back in comparison to the Yellowstone affair :-) I guess Randall very much agrees. During these days of Icelandic tremors and eruption, there have been a few new characters popping up on this blog who started playing around with Armageddon scenarios, but not Randall, I must say to be fair. So let's stay all calm and enjoy this eruption unless it really becomes a source of trouble (chances of which I continue to consider relatively remote, except maybe the risk of having too many gawkers not suitably equipped for the environment of the eruption site ...).

Thanks Boris!

Thank you Boris, taken to heart.

I am sorry Randall.

@Boris, I have a question about Etna and the topography there. Is the Voraine still in existance and has the diaframa disappeared? I saw the satillite picture and they were calling the large crater the Bocca Nuova and did not mention the Voraine. I also want to know it it is still steaming as it was about a week or so ago. Since the web cams have changed so much I don't get to see what is going on like I used to. I really loved watching the strombolian eruptions years ago and then the 2006 one (was that in November of that year?) which I think my DH and I sat and watched for six hours on Etna Treking's web came and right at that time they went off line. I was in touch with you then and you explained what the deal was. Now they are back, but not in the same places and I don't see as much, if I am able to see anything.

I really appreciate your contributions here because you explain things so well. Thank you.

@Jon, dittos on what Boris has said. Your geophones are an important contribution and because you are close to what is happening, you give us a good idea of what to watch for. Thank you for that.

Grodys That is OK, there is no need to apologize:)

If nothing else, this eruption has shown that there is a large, international community with an interest in vulcanology that transcends the purely ogrish. Will institutions "open up" and adapt to the Internet Age after this and make data readily available in real time or will they continue to guard their professional secrets? No matter what they choose, people will continue to speculate on matters that touch them or they find of interest. In such a case, people will grab whatever information they can find, be it accurate or not. Surely it is in the interest of science that such speculation is informed and based on accurate information and kept in bounds by readily available knowledge?

Henrik The institutions just haven't all caught up to the new reality of the net, but many of them are putting lots of very good info online. Think of the miracle of us all....from different points on the globe.....watching a volcano in Iceland in real time...commenting on it as it happens and getting expert opinions about what's happening....50 years ago that would have been considered almost magic...in the words of Paul Simon...."These are the days of miracles and wonders"

Henrik,

I think our curiosity knows no bounds. :)

There is a small possibility that the next really massive eruption could take place at Lazufre --- although even if that system does erupt it could be 300 years from now.

Occasionally I google "Lazufre" in hopes of finding out the current rate of inflation at that area. It was in 2008 inflating at 3.5cm a year. The reason I hypothesize that this might end up being a massive eruption is that this area of the world has periodically had large caldera eruptions. The inflation there is not centered on any particular volcano - which means to me that if this area has an eruption it could be caldera forming rather than just centered on one existent volcano.

In any case today's periodic search for Lazufre shows that there is an 18 month post-doc opening for someone to study what could be a possible "incipient caldera" volcano as speculated in Nature 10 years ago.

http://www.orfeus-eu.org/Announcements/2010_03-LAMAS_Stellenausschreibu…

INSAR data can reveal whether the inflation rate is still increasing. While the rate of inflation has increased at Lazufre over the past decade the most current inflation rate that I can find is from 2008. I don't have the data to determine what has been happening the last two years. I could draw mental curves extrapolating on an increasing inflation rate and such thinking could be alarmist.

So, I suppose that Lazufre is a good example of a system in which information in the hands of the public could lead to a sensationalized story ... or the withholding of information could lead to public guessing and conspiracy theories.

I am not suggesting that there is any withholding of data in the case of Lazufre - but rather that the far-away nature of this system means that it doesn't have a high priority - and it appears that INSAR data has to be processed in order to give reliable results.

Scientists might be giving Lazufre the attention that it deserves, but my curiosity is high because a massive eruption could be disruptive to areas of the Southern Hemisphere - and with some advance notice - those in the Northern hemisphere would be able to crank up food production to meet shortages in the Southern Hemisphere.

Lazufre isn't the most pressing issue in the world - but since this a volcano site - it is where it should be shared - and maybe someone out there can land an interesting job.

The sun is coming up and it appears the volume, if not the intensity is increasing:
mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/
That web cam view is awesome right now. I wish the other cam was working.

@Randall, you mean the one at ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli? On my computer it's working perfectly well, though the view is far less spectacular in daylight than the close-up one.

Just for the pleasure of it, take a look at Etna as it looks this morning - no eruption, but a splendid day in spring, the most beautiful season in Sicily
http://www.etnaweb.net/nunziata/webcam.php

Boris It seems to be slowing down from what it was over an hour ago. I see the other web cam is working again...I guess that is my cue to go get some sleep....it is 3:20am here. It was really blasting earlier but it does seem to be more smoke than fire at the moment.

That does look like a really nice day in Sicily:)

I know you've commented on it before Boris, but looking at the Etna webcam, I cannot help but wonder what other astonishing feats of ignorance the people building and buying houses on the slopes of such a very active volcano are capable of... I guess the beautiful vistas of Catania and the Straits of Messina are an irresistible lure. Human nature being what it is, I am sure that if something did happen, a lot of people would blame you for not giving "adequate warning in advance". Just look at those fools at Mammoth who are more worried about the drop in value of their property than the very real risk of being gassed, steamed, roasted, crushed and then obliterated along with their vaunted property!

But I agree, it IS beautiful!

The view from the FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls camera is very impressive. Last night in fading light, I noticed the feature in the foreground to the right. What is it? It looks like an old outcropping, surrounded by ash-covered snow, with cracks running through it from the edge of the picture all the way to the walkpath(?) near the centre of the view.

For convenience - http://mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhals…

Nice footage of a lava-fall, third video from the bottom:

http://blog.eyjan.is/larahanna/2010/03/27/thvilikt-sjonarspil/

Over the last hours there has been notable drop in harmonic tremors from the eruption. I don't think that this signals a end to the eruption. But it might signal a new phase in this eruption cycle that has just started in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

BREAKING NEWS: I saw a pyroclastic flow at the mila-webcam and made a screenschot (how can I publish a screenshot here?). The cloud was running down the hill (the south side) extremely fast. How could that happen? Is there a new fissure or just something like a lava stream getting in contact with too much snow? IÂ´m not sure but IÂ´m afraid it could have harmed people because it came suddenly and on the side where tourists are watching the eruption.

Big plume coming up from what i guess is NE of the fissure, the path of the original lava flow. Probably just new lava touching snow/ice. Pretty impressive.

Maybe there was just a lot of new lava falling down in that narrow canyon. But for me it really looks like there is a new fissure with new lava falling in that canyon. Definetely dark smoke now and very fast steam clouds rising up. New fissure! If not - I have no explanation how such a huge cloud could appear suddenly!

No new fissure. Sorry! Everything is calm now there. But definetely there was a cloud running down the hill very fast around the area of the first lava fall.

Henrik--you measure the worst-case scenario against the likelihood of it happening. I won't even second-guess the people who built houses in Royal Gardens--it's possible that Kilauea wouldn't erupt in that area for one-hundred years, and the economic life and value of the house would be zero by then, anyhow. But, most of the houses were cheap in the first place, so the damage, while heart-rending, is not economically crippling. Hualalai, if it erupts like in ~1800, will do billions of dollars in damage and destroy the Kona economy--but it might not happen for 500 years!

(If I won the lottery, I'd buy property and put a house on Mauna Loa's SWRZ in Hawaiian Ocean View Estates...but my house would be a trailer...pointing downhill...!)

Hi
I'm going to Iceland on wednesday - up to the eruption site by jeep/snowmobile on thursday afternoon/night if weather permits. Can't continue being a volcanologist that never saw an eruption live!!!

Anybody else want go? I'm travelling alone for all 4 days and would love someone to go along with. Also thinking about going to the blue lagoon one day, perhaps northern-light watching another and out eating good food.

Regards Heidi Ritterbusch

Heidi I wish I lived there or I would go in a heart beat...By the way Northern Lights should really be nice the next few days. spaceweather.com says "C-flares are continuing at a rate of one every 3-to-6 hours, and NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of even stronger M-flares"
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Also it looks like the Koryaksky volcano may be about to do something:
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/03/28/5727794.html

Damon! That's just it, people COUNT on it not happening during their life-times and then, when it does, or like the good people of Mammoth they get hit because their property loses in value, complain bitterly and try and find someone to fix the blame on other than their own, poor judgement. But it is in human nature - when given the choice between a short-term advantage that comes with a long-term disadvantage and a short-term disadvantage coupled to a long-term advantage, people will invariably go for the short-term advantage...

@Henrik #81, Mammoth isn't doing much right now and the quakes, for the time being, are slowing down. The big problem with Mammoth is the CO2 kill zones and seepage. In the winter, Mammoth is a major ski area and a lot of people go there. Yeah, it is a dangerous place and the people are more likely to break a leg skiing than the mountain erupting. That whole caldera is active and a beautiful place to visit. Lots of stuff to see there with all the domes and the Inyo craters. I did hike to the first crater and it is not a very big one. You can walk right to the edge and look into it. It has water in it. Ididn't get to the others. One of the main dangers in the caldera is Hot Creek. The water is hot and sometimes it seems just like nice bath water. So people have gone swimming in it and they don't know that at times very hot water will well into the creek and several people have been badly burned and some have been killed doing that. There are signs warning about it and now I think they have closed access to that part of the creek off. I would have to look into that, but it seems to me I saw something about that.

When you talk about Mammoth, just remember they rebuilt SF! There is a much greater chance right now of there being a strong quake there than Mammoth going off. And then there is the so called Palmdale bulge along the San Andreas in S CA. I haven't heard much on that lately, but there was a lot of talk about it 20-30 years ago. CA is fault city if you ask me. As I am sure you know, we get thousands of quakes every year and about 1/3 of them are from the geothermal plant near Clear Lake.

Well, enough on that. I saw what looked like a pyroclastic flow on the cam at Eyjaf and from what I could tell, it was steam and ash flowing down the side of the mound. It probably was some hot blocks falling with ash in the mix. It was neat to see it.

I tried to post this before with the complete links but it didn't work.

Also it looks like the Koryaksky volcano may be about to do something:
english.ruvr.ru/2010/03/28/5727794.html

I created three new time-lapse animations using the images from the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli webcam, the videos for 25th, 26th and 27th cover the whole day, with individual frames taken 1 minute apart:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwF7VsKrmjE

The others, and some additional time-lapse images can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/user/astrograph?feature=mhw4

I created three new time-lapse animations using the images from the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli webcam, the videos for 25th, 26th and 27th cover the whole day, with individual frames taken 1 minute apart you can find them, and some additional time-lapse videos in my channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/astrograph?feature=mhw4

Henrik I like to call that the Scarlett Ohara effect..."I will just worry about it tomorrow."

@Thomas Wipf (#85, 87, 88) - what you saw may very well have been a sort of pyroclastic flow, not due to the opening of new vents but due to explosive interaction of lava with snow and ice. We've seen such pyroclastic flows a number of times on Etna and Klyuchevskoy, and probably they happened at Llaima in Chile in 2008-2009, at Pavlof in Alaska in 1975, and at Hekla in 2000 and possibly in 1980 and 1947.
I will try to find the image of the event in the webcam archives (there are archives at http://extras.vodafone.is/trailers/fimmvorduhals/mx10-4-235-80/2010/03/… ...), but if you want to send the image you saved to my e-mail: behncke-"at"-ct-dot-ingv-it, thank you very much.

Henrik, the realestate economy is so bad right now that everybody in the country has lost value in their homes and it was not a natural disaster that did it. It was banks making bad loans to people who couldn't afford them and people buying homes to live in for a couple of years and selling them for a profit. Things were crazy for a while and we all knew it was going to come to a screeching halt eventually. It did and basically, the US is broke and the banks are a large part of the problem as well as speculators. So it can also be a human caused event as well as a natural event that will bring disaster.

Where I live, the main danger is fire. We know that it is a matter of "when" not "if" so every year we have a day devoted to fire safety and having a defencable space around our homes. And people here are cleaning up. That will help, but we have a bush call manzanita that is one of the hardest woods you can get and it burns VERY hot. So that is another issue. But we are doing the best we can and they have started to create fire breaks around the town in various areas. We are doing someting.

I do know what you mean, though. New Orleans is another example. They know there will be another hurricane and another and another. But they choose to live there. Nothing anyone can do about it.

Philipp cool vid, you can really see the cone growing in the daytime shots.

@Heidi, I plan to be in Iceland next week too, probably with my kids (passport issue to be worked out!). Leaving perhaps on Tuesday night for 3-4 day trip. Email me if you want to hook up! tmfdmike at gmail dot com

@ randall Here's a link to the Koryaksky webcam

http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/video_camera/koryak/koryak.htm

Re people living in dangerous areas:

When i was young, I went hunting around the US for a "safe" place to live. I discovered that there is no safe place. Tornados, hurricanes, floods, snow and landslide, drought, volcanos, earthquakes-- nowhere is immune. (I was looking for a place safe from radiation, but discovered there's nowhere to run). In CA, we get the effects of sandstorms and pollution in China.

So, we huddle down in our spot, and some of us prepare. (We're ready for earthquakes and floods.)

parclair Thanks for the link....hey there is nothing wrong with being prepared...you can't stop them but you can mitigate the blow. We have hurricanes here, every year we buy our supplies and keep a close eye on the weather. It is much like living near a volcano...the 1-3's don't worry me...the 4 and 5's are pretty scary. I live about 1 mile off the bay and about 50ft above sea level....The people who live on the barrier islands live on the slopes of a metaphorical volcano....The fate of their property is to become ocean again...much like the fate of those homes on the slopes a volcano, one day they will be returned to the volcano. So enjoy it while it lasts;) That's why I am about to go for a nice 3 mile walk around the old historic district of Pensacola with a couple of lady friends;) Carpe diem my friend!

@Heidi, I'm looking to go Wednesday / Thursday and would like to do all of the same things as you but have held off because I'd rather go with someone else. If your still looking then email me datmanchris at Gmail dot com.

It appears that a vent of some sort (fumerole?) has opened on the top of camera-facing side of the scoria heap. My imagination?

And does it look like an explosive vent has erupted on the camera-facing side lower down to the right. (Since this view is new, I'm not sure they've always been there.)

that new fimmvÃ¶rduhalsi webcam is a stunner. It's like having a front row seat.

Very glad for you Heidi that you are going!! If I could I'd drop everything and go with you! I'll just have to content myself with a couple of days on Etna over the Whitsun holidays.

Bruce I agree, it's fabulous. I've things to do, but can't leave the sundown view.

I leave for a walk and it cranks back up....Bruce you are right it does appear to be getting stronger.
mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/
What a view! Boris you might want to look at this.

It is awesome! I have seen some of the lava rock falling on the left side. It is quite intense. Cool.

What is up with the light (fire?) on the left handside of the webcam EyjafjallajÃ¶kull frÃ¡ ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli?

Wow...the eruption seems to be getting a lot more intense.

Danckel Increased lava flow is my guess.

It is sure putting it out in copious amounts right now.

Danckel, some of the lava is being thrown to the left side and what you are seeing are hot lava blocks rolling down the side of the mound. I have seen this kind of activity on Etna.

Right now it looks like there is some heavy duty ash coming out of it, too.

Again folks, don't let yourselves get fooled by the falling darkness! It always seems stronger, much much stronger at night, even when it isn't.

Boris I understand what you are saying but it really did increase right before dark....Could there be more gas in the eruption now?

Today there was a interesting earthquake at ML1.6 at 24.7km depth. There also have been a lot of earthquake with the depth of 10km or greater. This is quite interesting, as this signals that more magma is pushing up trough the EyjafjallajÃ¶kuls plumbing system and it might indicate that a new episode of expansion is about to start in it.

It looks like, in my opinion at least that this eruption has just started and we are just seeing the warming up part of it.

@Boris, it was much stronger before it got dark than it is right now. As I am writing this, it may be changing in strengh, but it has seemed to be calming down for the last ten or so minutes.

I did see one high blast that sent quite a bit of block fall on the left side of the mound before it go too dark to see it. That was really neat to see.

I do know that darkness makes light look brighter than it is and this has been so cool to watch. Just awesome.

Volcanologist Haraldur Sigurdsson thinks there are indications that the eruption has already peaked.

His blog: http://vulkan.blog.is/blog/vulkan/entry/1035862/

Henrik. Your thoughts on #115- same as mine? Thanks for the info Jon.

We shall see Peter but, yes. If there is a break in the deflation trend, perhaps even an increase, then it's a very interesting piece of information.

Re #114, 116. I have been watching it for much of the day, on and off. There have been times where the activity has increased, but also where the only thing visible from both webcams for lengthy-ish periods of time has been smoke - albeit at one point there was so much of it blowing due south, that the area between the vent and the FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls camera was shrouded in semi-darkness whilst everything else was in brilliant sunshine. (Around midday, Iceland time.)

Looking at Sigurdsson's graph, it looks like seismicity peaked a few days ago and is on a linear downward trend. But I can't read the language so I may be misreading it.

The latest from an Icelandic news website: "âIt is the smallest eruption that I have seen in my lifetime but also by far the coolest,â commented Benedikt Bragason at the tour operator Arcanum. He is offering ski-doo tours across MÃ½rdalsjÃ¶kull glacier to the source of the eruption on FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls."

A ski tour to an eruption would be cool indeed!!

@randall

reposting this as the first didn't seem to take (sorry if it shows up twice ...)

what Boris is saying could be reworded thusly ''' how many stars do you see in the daytime , versus how may stars can you see at nightime ??? (assuming you don't live in the core of big city, of course ...)'

exactly the same principle, faint objects show up much better on a dark background .....

An eruption of this size could stop tomorrow or continue for a decade. It might be tapering off or the activity could be variable. This might be "throat clearing" for a larger eruption or it might never get any larger. Anyone predicting what this eruption will be doing in the future is simply guessing but I suppose it just isn't human nature to want to simply watch and see what happens. We seem to think we have to predict things.

There is some interesting development going on in the last few hours. The harmonic tremors have been dropping fast. But at the same time there has been a increase in earthquakes in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. This is quite unusual I guess that it means that the eruption is going to change phases now.

This started around 02:00 UTC. But the drop in harmonic tremors started a bit earlier, around 22:00 UTC. There are several hours to go before this peaks, but I guess that this is going to develop fast and is going to mean trouble for the area.

robert somervile I understand what you and he are saying...but at the time I posted earlier it really was more intense.

George I don't know if you were talking to me or not but I am just watching........my commenting on it shouldn't be interpreted as any kind of prediction. To me this is a geological event and I really enjoy anything geological in nature...this beats any football game. I just wish they would get the web cam back up
mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/

Most of you guys won't really understand this but I do find there is a spiritual component to watching this thing...I guess it is something primeval, maybe it's because volcanoes are both agents of creation and destruction that fascinates me.

I am afraid some of you guys think I am wanting or looking for something apocalyptic to happen at Katla and I am not. I am going with Boris and Erik on this thing, it may get bigger but even if Katla did go off....at it's worst it still wouldn't be a game changer....I will reserve my anxiety for something a lot bigger than Katla. I am simply a fascinated Cro-Magnon observer watching a natural event through the miracle of the internet;)

I understand Randall. With his interest in beautifully crystallised mineral specimens, the best of which usually are found in pockets of fossilised magma chambers or ditto high-temperature hydrothermal systems called pegmatites, you might call Randall an archeo-vulcanologist. ;)

Henrik A archeo-vulcanologist, Thanks...I like that:)

Can anyone tell if it's still producing fire fountains? The weather is too bad to tell on webcam. I'm due to head up there this evening so I sure hope so...

This morning the eruption was clearly visible on the webcam: http://extras.vodafone.is/trailers/fimmvorduhals/mx10-4-235-80/2010/03/…

so I think the eruption is still producing fire foutains.

Yeah, I keep forgetting about the rewind feature! Thanks. Hopefully I'll get some good shots tonight. :)

I can see now some whitish/ light grey things falling in the field of view of the FrimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡lsi webcam. Is it ash or snow? It's hard to decide...

Looking at the webcam now, I think it's safe to say it's still going...

Tremor looks like it might be increasing again, too.

some impressive fountaining at the moment...

Yeah, the eruption certainly seems to have gotten back to some shape after a low moment last night. I just thought about another eruption that went through a series of different phases from different vents, that was Hekla in 1970. Who knows what this volcano has still in store, yesterday the eruption seemed almost doomed but it ain't over till it's over, right?

I do understand Randall (#125) perfectly well, the spiritual dimension is loud and clear to me. And then it's one thing to see an erupting volcano on television or "live" via a streaming webcam, which is already beautiful and sometimes quite exciting. Another thing still is to be there, though it does have some collateral effects which I knew about when first seeing Etna erupt in 1989 but hadn't really considered. Until then when I had dreamt about visiting an erupting volcano it had always been the volcano and me, and reality was that there were bunches of folks and not all as respectful as I, and it was cold especially at night, and the thing made a tremendously bad smell. Right, and you had to do a lot of physical excercise to get there. But I eventually got to terms with those environmental factors and then the spiritual dimension crashed in really powerfully, especially during those years on Etna when all hell was loose, between 1995 and 2001.

Some of my colleagues working here on Etna are actually leaving for Iceland to make gas measurements. So they say. But it is true that we haven't seen anything really good here on Etna since two years, which is an unusually long interval. So for the moment all of us cling to the FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls webcams and dream of our next eruption here at Etna, hoping it will be a harmless, beautiful one as the current one over there in distant Iceland.

@randall\

yeah i know what you mean about spiritual , i switched my major from electrical engineering to geophysics in 1980, we heard the blast from mt. St Helens here in the lower mainland, B.C. , Canada ( i did ..) , i was just reading recently that the noise was the shattered cryptodome hitting spirit lake .. ( we lived on a small acreage, i thought somebody was blasting stumps (woke me up ..).. i keep wondering if i will see another Cascade volcano go in my lifetime .. in the meantime i continue to visit Baker, Garibaldi, Meager , etc to pay homage ...

Throughout the Iceland episode, earthquakes have not been confined to EyjafjÃ¶llajÃ¶kull alone. It started with our host's "Rocking on the Reykjanes Ridge" and every day, almost, there have been quakes all along the mid-Atlantic rift on Iceland. I do not intend to be alarmist, but I've had a disturbing thought:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/understanding.html says "Between 1975 and 1984, the displacements caused by rifting totalled about 7 m." If the last great rift eruption was Laki in 1783-4, to go by the USGS figures, total "rifting" since then would amount to something of the order of 200+m. Be that as it may, the tension must be enormous by now if there has been no relief. Now, isn't it logical that if the crust will start to rip, it would do so from below where it is more plastic than on top? Isn't it also logical that since the crust is at it's thinnest under EyjafjÃ¶llajÃ¶kul (~20km as opposed to ~40 under VatnajÃ¶kull), this would be the first place the crust breaks? If so, couldn't this be the mechanism by which an eruption at EyjafjÃ¶ll seems to be followed by one at Katla: the fracture deep down below widens and opens up the Katla system? Not every time, but often enough for them to seem co-temporal and correlated?

For those who have followed the Iceland event for a while, please note the localised activity close to HerÃ°ubreiÃ° (MÃ½vatn), the TjÃ¶rnes Fracture Zone, BÃ¡rÃ°arbunga (VatnajÃ¶kull), ÃÃ³risjÃ¶kull (LangjÃ¶kull) and the Selfoss - HveragerÃ°i area (Southern Iceland).

Boris I do tend to get more philosophical at 3am;) Hey have you seen this:
Undersea volcano threatens southern Italy: Report

Agence France-PresseMarch 29, 2010 7:02 AM

ROME - Europe's largest undersea volcano could disintegrate and unleash a tsunami that would engulf southern Italy "at any time", a prominent vulcanologist warned in an interview published Monday.

The Marsili volcano, which is bursting with magma, has "fragile walls" that could collapse, Enzo Boschi told the leading daily Corriere della Sera.

"It could even happen tomorrow," said Boschi, president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).

"Our latest research shows that the volcano is not structurally solid, its walls are fragile, the magma chamber is of sizeable dimensions," he said. "All that tells us that the volcano is active and could begin erupting at any time."

The event would result in "a strong tsunami that could strike the coasts of Campania, Calabria and Sicily," Boschi said.

The undersea Marsili, 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) tall and located some 150 kilometres (90 miles) southwest of Naples, has not erupted since the start of recorded history.

It is 70 kilometres long and 30 kilometres wide, and its crater is some 450 metres below the surface of the Tyrrhenian Sea.

"A rupture of the walls would let loose millions of cubic metres of material capable of generating a very powerful wave," Boschi said.

"While the indications that have been collected are precise, it is impossible to make predictions. The risk is real but hard to evaluate."
vancouversun.com/technology/Undersea+volcano+threatens+southern+Italy+Report/2739114/story.html

Apparently the fire fountains *are* getting a little lower. It's a slow decrease, though.

As for the sudden decrease/increase in volcanic tremor, even those right on top of the situation don't yet know why that happens, but one theory is that it's leaking gases from elsewhere, which would also account for the lessening fire fountaining.

Boris - no wonder you wax lyrical, when remembering the 1995-2001 Etna eruption event. I had forgotten about your old Etna news website.

See the photo, mid-page second link. Also read about the unusually explosive 2002-03 eruption, following link at bottom of page.

Preliminary phase, '95-01
http://boris.vulcanoetna.it/ETNA_1995.html

Spectacular finale
http://boris.vulcanoetna.it/ETNA_2001.html

I flew over the volcano on Saturday and took some photos and video .
Here it is

http://iceland-dori.blogspot.com/2010/03/photos-and-video-of-volcano-in…

Our blog host's post the other day, wherein he mentioned prior research on bimodal magma eruptions in a major rift zone, N Island, New Zealand, started me thinking about the odd situation where a convergent Ridge might have subducting like activity.

Reading Boris' Etna News webpages that mention suspect alteration in magmetic source, from hotspot to subduction zone, observed in unusual shift to explosive activity in 2002-03, started to ring bells.

See G. R. Foulger publications, including:
Iceland is cool: An origin for the Iceland volcanic province in the remelting of subducted Iapetus slabs at normal mantle temperatures. Foulger and Anderson (2004).

A source for Icelandic magmas in remelted Iapetus crust. Foulger (2005).

Coincidence of the SISZ activity with EVZ activity.
THE SOUTH ICELAND SEISMIC ZONE
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/prepared/SouthIcelandEarthq2000/node3.html

The 1912 Iceland earthquake rupture: Growth and development of a nascent transform system. BJARNASON et al (1993). Bull. Seismological Soc. America 83(2):416-435.

The reworked source of basalt fissure injection on the SISZ east-end roughly coincided with eruption of Katla ~6 years later.

The subduction-like melting of the Iapetus (Caledonian) Suture fragments trapped within the upper mantle, providing thermal conditions and gases for explosive eruptions observed at Katla.

Of particular interest is the petrology of the relict crust sources: dense, mineral-rich and highly conductive.

@Randall (#137) ... ahhhhhh. There you got my Big Boss (Enzo Boschi) speaking, so I can't really say he's telling bogus. But let's specify a few things here.

In a general sense, each single active (or dormant) volcano on this planet is potentially highly dangerous. Practially all volcanoes bear in their geological history the more or less clearly recognizable traces of past cataclysms. What has happened once in the life of a volcano has a chance of happening again unless the volcano is cut off from supply and falls extinct. By the way, I consider a volcano extinct only when you don't see it anymore.

So yes, there is a good chance that Marsili seamount in the Tyrrhenian Sea has unstable flanks that might collapse one day, and since these flanks are entirely below the sea level, that would most certainly generate tsunamis. But as I said before, such worst-case scenarios are the least probable of all. Before this happens each single one of us will have had a million chances of slipping in the bathtub and smashing her or his head, or falling from a ladder, or cutting our arm off with a chainsaw while gardening. Or of dying or getting badly injured in a car crash or in whatever sort of accident, there's so much s**t waiting for us behind every corner that we go around, and this worries me a million times more than a volcano-induced armageddon.

But yes, it IS indeed possible, and this is why there must be as much research as possible, and as much influence as possible must be taken on decision makers to prepare for the remote possibility that something really bad will happen. And certainly what is behind my Big Boss's words is most of all an appeal to the public and authorities to provide funding for further research. That is best done speaking of the possible risks, not of what is scientifically interesting. And, I repeat, though extremely remote, the risk of tsunamigenic collapse does exist, not only at Marsili.

@Passerby (#139) - fun that you made my old (still existing) web site come up. When I visit it these days, it's like taking a nostalgic trip back on memory lane. Those were exciting days. I am now one of the main administrators of the new web site of the INGV Catania (www.ct.ingv.it), and gradually I am transferring some of the information and images from the old site onto this one. Obviously only the material that is not obsolete (the lava flow map in the first link is terribly obsolete)! It's a lot of work and first we've got to complete the Italian version and then it's gonna be the English version. Luckily Etna is giving us a quiet interval to get this done!

@ Dori Sig Thank you for the great film! I think I'm finally oriented to the eruption position. (That is, I can now look at the eruption and know the direction of view.) Invaluable.

Boris I thought you would find that interesting. I am all about preparation and mitigation when prevention is not an option.

Serendipity that you brought up the Etna fireworks of the last major activity period, as it reminded me of the odd behavioral phase shift toward the end.

Very easy to see now whey you might find the present eruption to be a bit low-key in comparison to your experiences with Etna. What a volcano!

It's not such a long stretch of logic to see the analogy of the bolide relict fragments caught and subducted along the Alpide Belt that may be the source of unusual, clearly visible, E-W 'lines' of earthquake activity in Asia at present.

See: an insightful diagram, Fig 1 in the freely-available pdf, below. It shows exactly what I had in mind while nattering about the SISZ interaction with Eyjaf and Hekla, with the loaded transform fault transferring shear stress-strain to Eyjaf, with the possibility of Eyjaf grinding against Katla and triggering unrest within the same relative activity time frame (3 for 3 in the last 1100 years and 1 or 2 potential coupled actions before then, although exact dates of these eruptions are unclear).

Recent volatile evolution in the magmatic system of Hekla volcano. S. Moune et al. (2007) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255:373â389.

At 18:06 UTC there was a ML2.6 earthquake in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, it depth was 2.2km according to automatic results. This follows increased in harmonic tremor that started few hours ago.

JÃ³n! The Iceland Met site shows three eq at 18.06, all in that area ~5.5 km SSW BÃ¡sar - 2.6 @ 2.2km, 1.5 @ 2.1km and 2.0 @ 1.7km all within 50 seconds. What kind of quakes were they, do you know?

@Henrik, The other earthquakes are duplicates of the main earthquake. But that sometimes happens in the SIL system, not sure why. The ML1.5 however might be a real earthquake, just badly located (low quality). There was also a ML2.4, ML1.8 and ML1.9 since I did notice about the earthquake that seems to have started this.

It is possibility that the magma is pushing it self up where the earthquakes are happening at the moment. I am not surprised if that where to be the case.

According to reviewed data, the earthquake had the size of ML3.2 at the depth of 6.7km.

The earthquake was downgraded to ML2.4 at 6.7km depth, but there was also a ML2.6 at 2.1km depth at the same time.

Information changing quickly over at the Iceland Met site http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/… Now it's listed as eight quakes M0.7 - 2.6 with seven of them greater than 1.8. Depth ranging from 7.0 to 0.7 km, all of then in the same area. JÃ³n?

@Henrik, The earthquakes are all located in almost the same spot. It appears that more magma is pushing up vertical.

As can be seen here.

http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/frodleikur/greinar/nr/1847

Check out the accompanying spike in high and mid-frequency tremor associated with those quakes!

Also I guess discussion should now move here:
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/03/icelandic_eruption_update_for…

Let's hope our little volcano in Iceland will get some more magma from underneath, it's such a nice show and it seems it is bringing tourists, so how much better can an eruption be?

Etna is quite a different volcano, though. The long-lived and extremely intense summit eruptions that we saw between 1995 and 2001 were fed by a system that is perpetually open. So usually when there is a repose period (like now) and then new magma rises through the central conduits, we don't get a lot of seismic and other geophysical warning signs. It just appears at the surface at some given time and that's then the onset of a new eruptive period, like in July 2006.

The 2001 and 2002-2003 Etna eruptions were flank eruptions, so they had more in common with the current eruption at EyjafjallajÃ¶kull-FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls, in that they were preceded by strong seismic activity, but they were more complex in terms of the number of vents and magma compositions, and much more explosive. But what they did, they drained much of the superficial feeder system of Etna, plus we had a gigantic flank slip movement, and as a result, the behavior of the volcano changed. It's clearly less active than before 2001.

One word @Henrik (#136), it is well understood that rifting is not a continuous process but it's episodic. That means, the 7 m of rift opening in 1975-1984 were not representative of a 9-year-period, but of the full 230 year intervall that had passed since the previous rifting episode. You dig? So in 9 years the amount of rifting was recovered which had not occurred in 230 years previously. That's the rate that we have to consider, not 7 m in 9 years. So it will definitely NOT happen that Iceland will dramatically rip apart in a "2012" manner. We're seeing a powerful rifting episode in the Afar area of Eritrea-Ethiopia since 2005, which seems to be more signficant in terms of displacement - also there this episode must recover the movement that apparently has not happened for a determined (though unknown) time. But we're still talking on a scale of meters, not hundreds of meters.

Finally, @Randall (#144). Prevention, in Italy? you kidding? No concept can be more foreign to this people than prevention (along with maintenance and coordination). Sad to say but true, in terms of mitigation of natural disasters (which are often exacerbated by man-made factors) we've got a LOOOOOOONG way to go here. Says someone living in an area at very high seismic risk (without much being done about it) and also at risk from - mostly effusive - volcanism.

Boris The Italian attitude must be very exasperating for a German used to more order.

Also look at:
mila.is/um-milu/vefmyndavelar/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/
Is that just an optical illusion due to the time of day or is it really cranking back up again?

Boris, that is not what I intended to say! I should never have included a figure as that gives a false impression, not only of the actual slippage, but also that I was under the impression that Iceland would dramatically rip apart Ã la 2012. Technically Iceland is, on a geologic timescale, but not dramatically. But don't blame me, blame the USGS for sensationalism as their site does give the impression that a 7m rift in a ten-year period is the norm. ;)

I'll rephrase: If, as is logical to assume, the bottom of the crust tears more easily than the more solidified top, then we could have a mechanism that might account for the observed phenomenon that when EyjafjÃ¶llajÃ¶kul erupts, it seems that Katla will follow. How? The first tear allows fresh magma access to EyjafjÃ¶ll's plumbing. After EyjafjÃ¶ll has erupted and while the tear is in the process of healing and thus is weakened, it widens which allows basaltic magma into Katla's magma chamber, et vÃ²ila! Nous avons l'Ã©ruption de Katla.

Several small rifts on the underside of Iceland's crust would also explain why there is interesting activity in several more places along the plate boundaries at the same time. The current activity, minus EyjafjÃ¶ll, may be the norm, I know not, but the impression given is that it is not.

A full moon rising over an erupting volcano....how sublime....I love it!

Hi
News from Icelands volcano , it just opened another eruption in the ground ,a few hundred meters from the original.
You can see it here on live video

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/

and also more links on my blog page

Fantastic job. Going to want a bit of time to ponder your post.

I was trying to find this type of info all over yahoo