ash plume

Sinabung and Etna updates for 8/30/2010

eklemetti — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 06:20:09 +0000

Sinabung and Etna updates for 8/30/2010

Classes starting today, so I have to be brief:

Unique twin ash plumes from Sinabung in Indonesia, erupting on August 29, 2010.

Sinabung
The Indonesian volcano continues to experience explosions, which one last night (well, last night here in Ohio) that prompted an ash advisory for aircraft up to 6,100 m / 20,000 feet, although most reports I've seen pegged the ash column at closer to 2,000 m / ~6,500 feet. Eruptions readers have found a bevy of links for footage and information about the eruption, including a remarkable image gallery from the BBC that shows the volcano exhibiting two ash plumes - one that is vertical, one that is shooting off to one side (see above). This definitely makes it seem that the vent is partially blocked and these explosions are helping "clear the throat" of the volcano (NOTE: this does NOT mean I think something big is going to happen, rather just that it seems to be the reasonable explanation for the bifurcation of the plume). My hunch is that even now, very little "new" juvenile magma has been erupted from Sinabung, but that is pure speculation until there are any analyses of the ash shard morphology or composition.

There is also some video from Portuguese television Some of the most recent images from the volcano show a strong, single plume with some rock avalanches (possible block and ash flows) on the flanks. Evacuations have increased to over 21,000 people living near the volcano and some flights have been diverted due to the taller ash plume. The biggest threat right now is the ash fall from the explosions and as such, the government is providing face masks and moving people to sturdier shelter. The current death toll appears to be 8 (video), mostly from respiratory-related problems. What comes next might be a guess for everyone at this point as the Surono, head of the Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation admitted again "We don't know what set it off, how long it will continue or whether to expect pyroclastic flows or more powerful eruptions."

Etna
Not to be forgotten, Etna continues to show signs that it is entering a new cycle of eruptive activity as well (albeit much less of a surprise than Sinabung). Dr. Boris Behncke points us to some new updates from the INGV (italian - top and english - bottom) that describe the explosions and collapses that have been producing the ash fall on Sicily. Be sure to check out Dr. Behncke's Photostream for the latest and greatest images of the current activity at Etna - currently he has some close ups of the explosions occurring in the Bocca Nuova crater (not to be missed). You can always watch Etna's show on the multitude of webcams as well.

eklemetti Mon, 08/30/2010 - 02:20

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for July 28-August 3, 2010

eklemetti — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 09:54:33 +0000

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for July 28-August 3, 2010

A new Weekly Volcanic Activity Report from the Smithsonian and USGS Global Volcanism Program!

Highlights from this week's report include:

Things are getting a little noisy in Colombia. I mentioned a few weeks ago about a possible explosion at Nevado del Ruiz. Now we have reports of increased seismicity under nearby Cerro MachÃn and ash plumes from Nevado del Huila. After a few centuries of relative quiet, it looks like the volcanoes of the Colombian Andes are looking more lively.
Also in South America, a gas plume was spotted at Chile's Planchon-Peteroa. This is the second time this year that increased gas emissions have been noted at the volcano that hasn't erupted since 1998.
Shiveluch on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia continues to rumble - ash plumes were produced from pyroclastic flows and steam-and-gas plumes reaching 4 km / ~13,100 feet were spotted as well.

eklemetti Thu, 08/05/2010 - 05:54

More activity in Wyoming just south of Yellowstone this morning, bringing the current EQ list to:
4.22010/08/05 14:59:28 43.646-110.416 5.0 34 km ( 21 mi) ENE of Teton Village, WY
4.82010/08/05 00:04:17 43.585-110.440 5.0 29 km ( 18 mi) ENE of Jackson, WY
3.02010/08/05 00:04:03 43.585-110.438 5.0 29 km ( 18 mi) ENE of Jackson, WY

though I can plainly see many aftershocks on this webicorder:
http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/moow_webi_1d.htm
(for yesterday)

and this one for today:
http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/moow_webi.htm

But there are still no updates to the earthquake map aside from the three larger earthquakes. What's up, USGS?

Hi Jen,

There may be no official statements from the USGS yet, but there is a bit of chatter on a local blog at:

http://www.jhunderground.com/2010/08/05/quake-watch-along-teton-fault/

I visited the place last summer, really interesting geology.

You can add another 3.2 at Wyoming @ 17:45 UTC. I can expect we'll see another swarm this winter.

The rumblings in Columbia, I'm wondering, if they're the effects of all the recent quakes in Chile.

Just came across the photo collection of Owen K. N. (as it seems he's a geologist) on Flickr, which has some outrageously spectacular aerial views of Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi (or Klyuchevskoy) taken late July:
www.flickr.com/search/?q=klyuchevskoy&w=35670622%40N06&ss=1&s=rec
What strikes me most is the large cone that has grown within, and is now practically completely filling, the summit crater of Kliuchevskoi as seen in particular here:
www.flickr.com/photos/oneill244/4864468767/
The outline of the old crater rim is still marked by small knobs on both sides of the new cone.
Owen had the privilege to witness, from a safe distance, pyroclastic flows descending the southern or southwestern flank of Kliuchevskoi:
www.flickr.com/photos/oneill244/4864932936/
There are also spectacular views of a lava flow extruded from Bezymianny after its latest explosive eruption in May this year, like this:
www.flickr.com/photos/oneill244/4865084090/

Boris, just saw you on tv! Th Etna flank collapse program. Nice to put a face to a name!

Amazing pics, Boris, thanks a lot!

What Renato said - wish I'd been there; not only the volcanism, but also the fauna seems to be fascinating.

When I saw the equipment pics, I thought, "That must be KVERT stuff." ;)

Thanks Boris. I never thought a volcano could rebuild itself so quickly. What would be the mechanism? Super thick rhyolite? (ie so thick that it can't move?

Yesterday, I wondered if the August 4-5 strong solar storm might have any effect on magma flow on earth and therefore on earthquake activity. Or perhaps there may be more simple interactions between strong electro-magnetic (E-M) disturbances and the Earth's crust - which might result in tectonic movements and earthquakes.

I found that there were five magnitude 6.0 or greater (M6+) earthquakes during the solar storm's strong E-M disturbances of Earth's atmosphere and space environment. During the eight days from July 30 to August 6, there were only two other magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes, so there was a clear anomalously sharp increase in occurrence during the strong solar storm.

Note: Sometimes multiple numbers of M6+ earthquakes will be recorded within minutes or hours because they are at the same approximate location and part of the same tectonic event. But the five M6+ earthquakes recorded during the solar storm were not at the same location, but rather widely dispersed in locations around the pacific ocean.

This is only one correlation of a solar storm's E-M disturbances to the Earth's seismic activity, so no firm conclusions can be drawn. But the fact of the anomalously sharp jump in M6+ earthquake occurrences during the 33 hours of the solar storm's E-M disturbances upon Earth is very intriguing and should prompt for further study.

Here is the data:

----------------------------------------
E-M Anomaly In Earth's Space Environment:
----------------------------------------
Proton flux unusually high: Aug 3, 18:00 UTC to Aug 4, 06:00 UTC = 12 hours duration
E-M disturbance very high: Aug 3: 18:00 UTC to Aug 5, 03:00 UTC = 33 hours duration

Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/satenv.html

----------------------------------------
Quakes >= Mag 6.0
Eight Days: Jul 30, 2010 to Aug 6, 2010
----------------------------------------
* 2010/08/05 03:00:00 SPACE E-M ANOMOLY ENDS

6.0 2010/08/04 23:48:03 45.964 153.216 33.6 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
7.0 2010/08/04 22:01:44 -5.768 150.776 44.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
6.4 2010/08/04 12:58:25 51.426 -178.607 27.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
6.4 2010/08/04 07:15:33 -5.521 146.793 213.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
6.0 2010/08/04 04:46:22 -26.953 -177.148 23.7 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

* 2010/08/03 18:00:00 SPACE E-M ANOMOLY BEGINS

6.3 2010/08/03 12:08:27 1.243 126.277 42.8 MOLUCCA SEA
6.3 2010/07/30 03:56:13 52.461 159.902 18.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA

Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

William Boston

@ Chris - I would doubt there is any connection between volcanic activity in Colombia and the seismicity earlier this year in Chile.

If Cerro Machin does erupt it could produce some very impressive and dangerous pyroclastic flows. The quote below is from
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1501-04=

"Voluminous pyroclastic flows traveled up to 40 km from the volcano during eruptions in the mid-to-late Holocene perhaps associated with formation of the caldera."

We are in the Holocene now correct? So the pyroclastic flows may not have happened in the extreme distant past. Maybe they haven't been able to study this volcano as well as they have studied many volcanoes in the US and that is why the dating of the pyroclastic flows isn't as precise as some of us would like.

Now what are the odds that this increased seismic activity under Cerro Machin does not indicate that there will be an eruption there in the next few decades? This is where the experience of volcanologists is helpful in reading the physical signals given off by a long dormant volcano.

so informative, thanks to tell us.

Wednesday Whatzits: Mixing it up at Hood, alert lowered at Taal and plumes over Vanuatu

eklemetti — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 02:09:35 +0000

Wednesday Whatzits: Mixing it up at Hood, alert lowered at Taal and plumes over Vanuatu

Mt. Hood in Oregon, taken August 2008. Image by Erik Klemetti. Click on the image to see a larger version.

Quick news!

I'm not going to go into too much depth right now about the recent study published in Nature Geoscience on Mt. Hood in Oregon - I plan to talk about it more in a few weeks. Why is that? Well, the lead investigator on the study, Dr. Adam Kent of Oregon State University, is a friend of mine (and occasional Eruptions commenter) so I plan to get the details from him before posting. I was also peripherally associated with some of this work - mostly in the field acting as a pack mule and offering my witty observations. Nevertheless, the long-and-short is that magma mixing seems to be a strong control on eruptions at Mt. Hood, where mixing of two different magmas (one felsic, one mafic) can trigger an eruption. This mixing could be only weeks before the eruption, suggesting short time intervals between the trigger of an eruption and the eruption itself. Interestingly, Mt. Hood seems to play by its own rules in this respect relative to what we know about how other Cascade volcanoes behave.
Lava continues to flow from Kilauea into the area around Kalapana, although it has slowed. Only two breakouts were noted near Kalapana on August 1, suggesting that less lava is flowing. However, lava continues to reach the ocean to the southwest of Kalapana.
PHIVOLCS lowered the alert status at Taal to level one after signs of eruption waned, with only 5 earthquakes over the last 3 weeks. However, the restrictions for tourists remain in place for the time being as new measures are created, especially when it comes to approached the main crater. At the crater, steam explosions can still happen unexpectedly and the concentrations of volcanic gases can be dangerous.
The NASA Earth Observatory posted an image of the plumes from Ambrym and Gaua in Vanuatu. You can see the thin, wispy plumes of mostly steam and volcanic gases (which possibly some very minor ash) drifting to the northwest.

eklemetti Tue, 08/03/2010 - 22:09

So if there is an earthquake swarm at Mt Hood it would be best to take notice earlier rather than later.

Here is the abstract of an interesting paper. I wonder if the full paper gives any specific info on plate tectonic differences below Mt. Hood? (From mantleplumes.org)

Xue, Mei; Allen, R.M., Mantle structure beneath the western United States and its implications for convection processes, J. Geophys. Res., 115, No. B7, B07303, 2010.

@2: No, it's a 'Big Picture' type article. Better reads on the cold mantle down-welling process under Western US:

Dripping 'Blob' Under Western U.S.: A Hidden Drip, Drip, Drip Beneath Earth's Surface. Science Daily May 2009

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090526171813.htm

John D. West, Matthew J. Fouch, Jeffrey B. Roth, Linda T. Elkins-Tanton. Vertical mantle flow associated with a lithospheric drip beeath the Great Basin. Nature Geoscience 2, 439 - 444 (2009) DOI: 10.1038/ngeo526
(full paper below)
www.iris.edu/hq/esreg/priv/download_file/127

Western USA mantle structure and its implications for mantle convection processes. (same authors as paper cited by Pyromancer)

seismo.berkeley.edu/annual_report/ar07_08/node14.html

"Nevertheless, the long-and-short is that magma mixing seems to be a strong control on eruptions at Mt. Hood, where mixing of two different magmas (one felsic, one magma)"

I am assuming you meant one felsic, one mafic...or did you mean that a felsic magma can interact with any other type to trigger an eruption?

@VolcanoMan - Oops, thanks for catching that. It was supposed to say "mafic". Will fix it now.

TJÃRNES FZ:

I have been waiting for someone with a bit of knowledge to write about the long series of quakes we have been seeing at TFZ (about 10 km north of GrimsÃ¶y).
It has after all been going on for more then 2 weeks now without letting up.
The action is not situated at the site of the 1868 underwater eruption, it is to the nort-west to it. Lurking did a nice picture of it a week ago that seemed to show that it was a pipe pattern to the quakes.

So, anybody with a take on this? Is it an eruption, or a what?

Looking forward to any answer.

Hey that's an amazing insight on the subject, thanks so much! never heard it more clear.

A sense of humor... is needed armor. Joy in one's heart and some laughter on one's lips is a sign that the person down deep has a pretty good grasp of life.

Just texted my mom to see if she wanted to get pedis after work. It was only after I sent it that I realized iPhone corrected 'pedis' to 'penis'. I asked my mom if she wanted penis after work. Brilliant.

I hope that guy that "wants to be a billionaire" makes $999,999,999.00 and then gets hit by a bus

You must never promote a journey of revenge without giving a lunatic : Confucius

Things you mentioned made . Nevertheless, think about this, what happens if you offered a little more? I mean, I do not want to teach the way to write your site, but if you actually added something which can grab people's focus? Simply like a video or a graphic or few for getting viewers psyched about what you are talking about.

Very useful article. Myself and my neighbor were getting ready to do a little study regarding that. We bought a helpful guide on that issue by our own neighborhood library and many publications are not as descriptive as your content. I am very thankful to discover such info which I was searching for a long time.

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for June 23-29, 2010

eklemetti — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 08:25:26 +0000

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for June 23-29, 2010

Just a reminder, if you any questions for Sally Kuhn Sennert of the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program - about the Weekly Report, about life at the GVP, about volcanoes - be sure to send them to me soon at .

Now, on to this week's update!

Some highlights (not including Gorely):

Lahars from Tungurahua in Ecuador moved blocks upwards of 2 m in diameter downstream over the last week and ash fall was reported over 20 km from the volcano's vent. For some reason, FoxNews decided to use an image of Tungurahua for an article on stats of natural disasters in 2009 - nice image, but the volcano isn't mentioned anywhere but in the captions.
Small ash-and-steam clouds were spotted at Karymsky in Kamchatka over the last week, reaching upwards of 10 km / 32,000 feet. This goes with the current activity at Kliuchevskoi and Shiveluch, both of which are experiencing explosions produced ash-and-steam columns that reach over 7 km / 22,000 feet. I've been trying to figure out the situation at KVERT now that we've past the date on which they said they would be "closed" due to lack of funding, but no luck. I did notice that the statement about the closure was removed on June 28 from the June 24 update, but that is as far as I've gotten. Anybody have any more insight?
Kirishima in Japan might have has a small eruption on June 28, however the details are scant at best.

eklemetti Thu, 07/01/2010 - 04:25

Would someone like to look at the Porosfelli cam, and the heat cam? I have been checking this for some hours to make sure I am not mistaken (but could be). There seems to torrents of water flowing in front of Lady E and a smoke plume travelling from left to right (that is also the wind direction) that is traversing over the top of the Eyjaf crater.

At first I thought it had to be cloud, but now I am really not so sure. Is there any indication on the tremor measurements that might suggest activity around Katla?

After hours of checking on what looked very much like an ash plume from something to the left of Eujaf, it appears to be settling - but if someone is still recording time lapse at the poro cam, please do take a look. No doubt there will be more if it is an eruption close by.

There are gale warnings for Iceland for today,July 1, so tremor plots may not be very useful. Could be gusts of wind blowing ash/dust up as well. There does seem to be some steam, near the crater lake or at least near that area-its hard to tell with the camera angle.

hey, you are right about the steam from the left side of the old crater rim..
there has been some earthquakes lately, that probably has opened some hot steampockets and small fissures, so steam and hot air can rise up under the ice..
but yes its steaming goood, and Its probably very very hot indeed,.

and here comes the water down GigjÃ¶kull!!!

Can Zombies survive volcanic eruptions?

-If they not are staying near the explotions and near or in the lavaflow or pyroclastic flow..Then Zombies can survive a volcanic eruption..Just as humans does,or animals for that matter..

but why asking about zombies??

Anyways I think, im pulling back the water post,

- It was just steam,I think ,even tough I swear it looked like water flowing down the glacier(GigjÃ¸kull),can anybody confirm or bust me on that one or is it plausible that it actually was some water flowing??..

@#1, #2, #3, #6 - No

Lady E is steaming nicely and every now and then water gets into the lava trench, which appears to be pretty hot and is steaming very well, too.

The hurricane force winds around ThÃ³rÃ³lfsfell (and it's Thorolfsfelli, Jules, if you can't do copy paste; the first letter is what used to be 'thorn' in Old English) have played havoc with good viewing today.

@Thor - I've been following the passage of water down the GigjÃ¶kull lava trench, trying to spot places where the flow gets dammed, trying to estimate the probability of a jÃ¶kullhlaup. One of the best indicators of water passage is, indeed, the steam emitted, and that is the only way to see it, until it bursts out at the end of GigjÃ¶kull.

Hi folks !,

Just found this http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=29314&ew_…

@Adrian -

That article is one way to look at things; the other opposite is the Japanese way: according to their counting, Shakurajima has erupted about 600 times - this year. Apparently, if there is a lull of a few hours, the next spew of ash counts as a different eruption. (IMO, Shakurajima has been erupting for ages)

Umm,thats a very good point Kultsi; so,using Japanese reasoning,Eyja can't be too far behind Shakurajima!(I do like a bit of a contest,hehe).

Thor, re Zombies, check this blog for today:

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/

Impressive view on MÃºlakot cam!
http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalmulaen.html

If anyone is interested in current Iceland water/floods/water, check out the Skafta River, which flow comes out of Lake Grimsvotn in the middle of the Vatnajokull Glacier. It has been flooding, which is normal in the summer time, but since its partially glacier fed it may indicate one of the several volcanoes under that ice cap are heating up.

Ok, now it's gone, but I got an image of it:
http://picasaweb.google.com/110366256140084081552/Eyjaf#548909439380714…

Hey, random thing not really related to EJ or the post.

I'm currently in Kihei, Maui, HI, and will probably be travelling up to the top of Haleakela Saturday or Sunday morning. Of course, I'll be after sunrise pictures (and some night sky if the moon cooperates), but if there's anything in particular you folks here would like a shot of, I'll do my best. Remember, though, I'm just a guy with a camera, so it's not like I've got a back-stage pass or anything.

Regardless, I'll post whatever pictures I get. I plan on doing at least a little hiking in and around the crater, weather permitting. I just wanted to offer a little something back for all the fun times you guys have given with regards to the Iceland eruption.

Anyway, either post here (I'm day-tripping to Lana'i Friday, but I'll check back before I head up the hill) or email me at dstarfire (at) hotmail (dot) com if you've got anything particular.

The 600 count for Sakurajima is for explosions. The volcano has been in nearly continuous eruption since 1955, and that is counted as one eruption.

Renato, that looks like a huge tornado on top of the volcano. Wait, is that Dorothy? And Toto too? :)

#18 Yeah, Dan, just waiting for her to come from somewhere over the rainbow... ;)

"Alex may continue to spawn isolated tornadoes today over South Texas and northern Mexico." Wunder Blog Weather

@20 And I have relatives in both places, but all is well so far.

#21 That's not to worry, I'm sure the worst is gone for them. But Surges are not helping much for oil spreading, but looks like Florida is being spared for the moment.

https://twitter.com/fitumitradingco

Oh yah eh

Iceland, cumulative quake energy, 15 minute binning window + 48 hour moving average.

http://i49.tinypic.com/10iat7n.png

... so. They gather up about 40 to 50 thousand sea turtle eggs and move them to a part of Florida unaffected by the oil. If, as I have seen mentioned elsewhere, the turtles know what beach to lay their egg on by navigating back to where they hatched... does that mean that some stretch of beach is soon to inherit a large influx of native turtles? Turtles that will return come egg laying time?

And a cross section from Eyj to Grim looking North. Period 06/20/10 01:48:30 to 07/2/10 04:06:21.

http://i48.tinypic.com/n2ykax.png

Last Updated: 07/01/2010 18:50 GMT
Substantial ash storm is now under EyjafjÃ¶llum. Ãlafur Eggertsson farmer in Ãorvaldseyri says that nothing has rained. Very windy is in these areas and has Hvid exceeded 40 meters per second. He says that the ride is dust, ash and sand that blow to the ground and damaging trees and bushes, and leaves of tÃ¦tist eyÃ°ileggist. There is not any way to be outdoors unless it be well-armored in the sand so the wind is full of travel in front of people. Visibility is about 300 meters.
frettir@ruv.is

@Lurking #24 #25 How does it look for you? Seems to me the shaking is somewhat less frequent?

@Lurking:
Thank you for the E to GrimsvÃ¶tn graph, it kind of clarified one thing that I have suspected since I was recuperating from Midsummer-partying. I had mentally maped into my poor (then) hungover brain to ask if you could do a picture like that, and here it is without me asking:) Are you a mind-reader?
I have been working on a fluid-motion/stress-tensor modell for that part of Iceland in particular and Iceland in general based on a modell for how ice behaves when breaking apart. The results was pretty odd, but that picture actually showed that I at least am not that totally off and that you can use the ice-modell for calculating the fluid motion patterns of Iceland out of it. Problem was that I used pen and paper for my calculations (normal for me) so getting that into a nice computer picture for all was beyond me. Thanks!

I will write a short summary on my thoughts after some more coffee. I had originally planned to actually write something more substantial for you all to laugh at, but due to changing conditions I do not have time any longer. My plan to retire at the old age of 38 failed after only four weeks:(
My friends are laughing their pants off right now since they hade a book running on how long I would stand sitting on my buttocks doing nothing...

GrimsvÃ¶tn-Askja Vortex Plume, part 1

The local tectonics of Iceland bear a strong resemblance to ice breaking up in moving low salt ocean water where a large sheat of ice is being pulled apart in two different directions.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Iceland_Mid-Atlantic…
As seen in the image-link above there is a strong motion (2.5cm year) apart of the eastern and western parts. It is also possible to see a large fractured part in the middle that is also modeleable according to ice-fracturing.

Here one should make an exception to the ice-modell, iceland has been around long enough to actually be reshaped by the pent up pressures, ice is not around long enough for that to happen in the modell I am using.
The result of this is that mid-atlantic-rift here is bent strongly. Out of this we can deduce some things.

1. As the bend progresses it becomes to far stretched and the fracture should become detached from the main band and "die out" over time. Which is shown on this image:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Volcanic_system_of_Iceland-Map-en.svg
Look at the ÃraefajÃ¶kull belt, that is probably the original part of the MAR before it started to bend wildly across Iceland.

2. As the ÃraefajÃ¶kull belt moved far enough the Vestmannaeyjar/GrimsvÃ¶tn/GrimsÃ¶y-line opened up and was then the actual part belonging to MAR propper. But as motion of that line went to far a new line was formed from Reykjaness Ridge, but instead of going straight it fractured its way up to GrimsvÃ¶tn, something that will have large implications in the next posting.

3. A new line should soon (geologically speaking) open up from the northern tip of the WVZ to KolbinsÃ¶y-ridge since the pent up east to west-skewing energy is to large in the Reykjaness Peninsula to Hekla area to be contained for long. When and if that happens there will probably be an epoch of rapid tectonic movement as the pent up stresses quickly releases, partnered with very large magmatic release. Something that probably happened back when the Reykjanes Ridge to GrimsvÃ¶tn opened up. Please note that the main bulk of the magma then did not come up for obvious reasons in the RR to GrimsvÃ¶tn line, instead it of course flowed up in the line from GrimsvÃ¶tn to KolbinsÃ¶y line.

After that diversion, back to the GAVP.
(I will post that in a new posting since I do not know how long posts are possible)

GrimsvÃ¶tn-Askja Vortex Plume, part 2

The main part of storing energy in the Icelandic tectonic system is in lines going west to east where the plates rub against each other causing tension stresses, which are released in larger earthquakes now and then. The figures I used for the pent up energy is to be found here:
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/skyrslur/June17and21_2000/index.html

I then recalculated those nombers as a whole for the RR to GrimsvÃ¶tn line.

That pent up energy gives the energy potential for the Vestmannaeyjar to to KolbinsÃ¶y line and the WVZ combined. The pent up tension-stress is of course translated into negative values since we are here talking of something as basic as suction when the parts are pulled apart.
When Ice is torn apart water is pulled up into the crack by this suction-force, here it is magma pulled up, but the principle is the same.

Then we can go into simple fluid dynamics. A rule of thumb is that we will get small vorticii in the water sucked up and that these will be spread out evenly if the fracture is straight-lined. If it is not we will get differently sized Vorticii. The power of the vortex increases with the angle of any corner-structure in the ice, and if the corner is at 90 degrees the vortex will be squared compared to a straight-line vortex. In this case we have 2 (almost) 90 degree corners adding up the power. The vortex thusly created is so powerfull that it can and will controll any other vorticii in the straight-line zone that is ripping apart.
I am not here going to explain why vorticii is always going to start in fluid dynamics, that is really school-book physics and I am pressed for time today.

So what is so wonderfull with a Vortix?
Well it can explain a few things. If a vortex like that exists (remember that this is a theoretical modell based on fluid dynamics using calculations normally used on Ice and water, not magma) it explains a few things and makes one prediction (possible to falsify).
The pent up energy in the RR to GrimsvÃ¶tn line is large enough to sustain a vortex streatching from GrimsvÃ¶tn up to Askja, the spead of outer edge movement would be 10cm a year, and it sucks up an average of five centimetres of magma per year, and the area is large so we are talking about something rather massive here. That sucked up magma then spreads out from the Vortex when it hits the crust. When I did the first calculations I got a number for how much Iceland could be sucked up to be between 25 to 100 metres. Then someone posted a link from BBC that gave the actual number to be 50 metres.

(Next instalment, What does Vorticiis have to do with Volcanos?)

GrimsvÃ¶tn-Askja Vortex Plume, part 3

So what did this all have to do with a Volcano?
Well, a large vortix sucking up water is not so bad when we are talking about fracturing ice. But things change if we add one factor. Let's say that it is really cold and that the water in the fracture almost emediatly freezes over creating a new (thinner) ice-layer. That is what is happening here, almost emediatly the upwelling magma cools of and solidifies into new crust. But the water, sorry magma is still welling up and wants to surface. And it will at the weakest points, and those will be found where the outer edge of the vortix (fastest moving, highest energy) meet the fracture in the ice.
In this case that would be the GrimsvÃ¶tn volcanic system and the volcanic system around Askja.

Sub-vorticii:
Any main vortix will dominate any other vortix that is along the straight-line fracture. There is a mathematical rule that tells us that from a large vortix there will be subvorticiis in a progression outwards and that those are calculable to be the power potential times (in relation) both distance and sub-energy-potential and that is relative to the mathematical irrational constant of approximately 1.6180339887 (I know, but nature really loves that one).
When you calculate it the main southern sub-vortix would be quite a distance away around where one finds Katla. (The same proportionality actually goes for Katlas little slave vortix EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.) The main subvortix is about one quarter in energy potential to the Main-vortex (give or take 25 percent). So that is why E has one quarter of Ks energy-potential, next in line would be HeimÃ¶y then.
Northward we have Krafla and so on.

So what has this to do with a plume?
Well the suction force is so large that it will start a very deep-going vortix. If you want to you can see it as an inverted tornado, sucking up magma from far below (ground) up to the surface (cloud). Albeit here surface is the core boundary and the surface is either crust or actual surface during an eruption.

This gives that we are here talking about a plume that is actually generated at the surface, and not at the bottom as the standard modell plumes generating heatspots. The standard modell plumes move over time so you get timelined volcanos (Hawaii for instance) as the heatspot generated by the plume moves since the plume is "anchored" to the bottom at the core boundary.
Here instead we are talking about a plume that (for now at least) is anchored to the surface, that is why we are not seeing any timelined volcanos on Iceland. Though we are seeing timelined volcano-bands as I talked about in part 1.

Now someone will probably say that GrimsvÃ¶tn and Askja has different magmatic composition, and that is probably true. Does this falsify the theory? No, not really. One has to keap in mind that we are talking about a large slowly turning (in human time-understanding) vortex that is succing magma over a large distance of depth, in that vortix you are bound to have "globs" of different origin. But if someone finds lava that is wildly out of line it probably would put the entire theory in jeopardy (I suspect Eric will shot this theory in the foot about here).

So, what does this help? Well, if one want to one can calculate the tension-break points for the intersections of the fractures and the vorticiis. There is probably a pretty distinct height that those parts of Iceland can stand before breaking. Let's say that Askja can be lifted 10cm before magma is pushed up starting an eruption. That number would have to be calculated from the zero level and not todays plus 50 number, but that is just a small problem mathematically. The real problem is to calculate with any grade of exactitude the point of breaking for Askja.
But, when an area is lifted enough it will erupt, release enough of lava to lower to magma level-pressure untill the vortix has moved and sucked up new magma and it all starts over again.

My guess is that this entire area is allways very close to the breaking point and that is why the period of increasing signs of eruption is in many cases so short on iceland. Just think about it, if all that is neaded is a couple of centimetres over a (comparatively) small area just one little wave can tip the waggon and start an eruption in minutes.

It wass rather fun to think about this, I am probably wrong, and you are all welcome to shot me in the fot now. I am sorry though that I didn't have time to write a proper paper about this presenting the graphs for it, and of course the mathematical formulae, but I guess that most of you can deduce those on your own.

Oh, and thanks Lurking (whomever you might be) for that wonderfull image showing the vorticiis of "GrimsvÃ¶tn-Askja", Katla and the sub-slave EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.
http://i48.tinypic.com/n2ykax.png

Oh, and by the way, if I should do a prediction out of this my little theory, it would be that the likelyhood of the next eruption on Iceland would be either around GrimsvÃ¶tn or Askja, and the statistical likelihood is 42 percent and that the apparant pent up energy is large, so that would probably be a VEI-3 or larger and will release a larger than average amount of lava. The likelihood of this happening within 15 years is 73 percent.
But the margins for error is massive since I haven't been able to calculate the fracture points...

@Carl That makes sense to me, though I'm no expert, and it would explain the strange "mantle plume" behavior ("the plume is "anchored" to the the surface" ).
I have my own inferred suspicions that next eruption was to take place in the region you mentioned, just didn't know why. Now you got me into this. Good job.
@Lurking: Thanks once more to the invaluable contributions.

English version of @32
02/07/2010 | 14:00
Ash Storm under EyjafjallajÃ¶kull
Last night, a severe ash storm raged in the area around EyjafjallajÃ¶kull glacier, ruv.is reports. According to the farmer at Thorvaldseyri Ãlafur Eggertsson, it has not rained.

The area was extremely windy with gusts exceeding 40 meters per second [89 mph and it's still blowing hard this morning by Thoro cam]. Dust, ash and sand were being blown around, causing damage to trees and bushes with leaves shredding and being destroyed.

There is no way to stay outdoors if not well prepared, since in a storm such as this one, the sand hits peopleâs faces with full force, Eggertsson explained.

The visibility last night was approximately 300 meters.

@31 Carl,
You have to understand the situation is not analogous to ice (solid) floating on water (liquid). There is not a vast ocean of magma beneath the crust. The mantle beneath the crust is crystalline rock, but it does flow (as a solid) very slowly at the correct pressures and temperatures.
Where plates pull apart(such as in Iceland), what is pulling apart is the crust with the very top part of the mantle. Deeper mantle will well up into the area and the rock will melt a bit as it rises. That's the source of the magma.
Iceland has more melting and heat flow than the other parts of the Mid-Atlantic ridge, such areas are "hotspots". This hotspot has been attributed to a "mantle plume", which again is not rising hot magma, but solid, crystalline, yet plastic and flowing rock from deep in the Earth.
There is quite a bit of study of mantle flow, geophysics can image it because the mineral crystals deform and align, which affects the behavior of seismic waves passing through.
Also, the plume model for Hawaii assumes the plume is fixed in place, there is a linear chain of islands because the plate moves over it. Imagine holding a pen in one place, pointing up. Then move a paper over it -same idea.

@Carl. I think your theory is intriguing. I'm not by any means an expert, but I'm pretty good at seeing connections. (think Podkayne of Mars ;-D) As I've been reading the papers over the last few months, it appears that there is no certainty over plume vs MAR as the source of magma. This would explain the confusion-- a vortex. (Albeit very slooooowww). My (current) understanding of the mantle is that it's semi-solid (mushy ice). So I guess the question may be: what's the take of someone who understands fluid dyanamic?

I keep thinking that the rotation of the earth has got to be bumping the mantle around so that it circulates like the oceans, and massive earthquakes now and then cause waves through the mantle. Then, these waves hit the equivalent of blow-holes (volcanoes, rifts) and the magma starts rising. Your vortex theory would make the mixing-up of plume magma, MAR magma, and local rock explain the differences between the various lava compositions.

Hmm. More thinking and research.

@Ekoh:

Yes, I am aware of the semi-solid state of the mantle. Thing is that what we in ordinary life concieve as the "solid" part of the word semi-solid is not at all solid. They are just less viscous than pure non-solids like water. But if you go into the geological scale the difference between a semi-solid like the mantle and the non-solid like water is none at all. The mantle behaves exactly as a fluid in longer timespans.

But you are very much correct in me being unclear concerning mantle and magma interaction, I am very much an amateur concerning that. Regarding fluidity in solids, non-solids and semi-solids I am not.
You are also correct in that I knowingly stretched the Ice-water/magma-crust analogy quite a bit, but I tried to explain in things in laymans terms. There are differences, but the fluid dynamic model from ice-water that I used is still quite aplicable for semi-solids interacting with solids. It is as I said, just a question of the timescale, and here we are talking about 100Ks of years...

Concerning Hawaii, I wrote that it is fixed in the coreboundary, which if I have understood plume-theory is where it is suposed to be attached, and I wrote that it is the upper part that progresses. What I was probably unclear about is that the plates glide over the mantle, mea culpa:)

For those who want a more earthly example of what I am talking about, if you remember your school science you will remember that the flow-rate of silicate-glasses are one millimetre per hundred years in supension-state. And that is counted as a solid since it is in a chrystalline lattice.

I am quite certain that the physics is correct, the things I worry about is the geological facts.

hi does anyone have a link/sat/webcam to show above volcano E would be nice to see above on a clear day

Eyjafj webcam shows past eruptions maybe useful if you have not got, http://www.vodafone.is/eldgos/en

@Carl #36 are you talking about how window glass flows and using that as an analogy for the mantle's crystaline state, yet being able to flow as glass?

I am wondering about the vortex idea and how much the rotation of the earth can affect that and also the tilt of the axis. I would expect if there is any affect at all, it would not be dramatic from our perspective, but it may be from a geological perspective. Now what would cause some of the magma to be so fluid it runs like pancake syrup out of a bottle and at other times it is like holding a catcup bottle waiting for something to come out and you end up having to bang on the side or bottom of the bottle to get it to come out? I know it has different chemical make-up. The more silicic it is the more viscous it is. How does your vortex (I think of eddies)theory fit into this senario? Also you have to figure in all the gases that come along with the magma. I would think if there was a lot of gas, it would affect the vorticii. When it boils down to it, we really don't know exactly how things are working below the crust, though we do have some ideas about it based on what we see when there is an eruption and also what we see from studying areas that have had a lot of eruptions.

There is so much we don't know and I know you agree with that. I don't have a very good grasp of physics as I did not take it in high school. I did have some in college, but I don't remember anything about water-ice interactions. What I had was just a basic course and then a course called Electron Optics. And all that was 30 years ago. LOL

I will say I do know something about vorticii, though, of a different kind. I was taking flying lessons and my instructor and I were coming in for a landing behind a Piper Cherokee or Dakota (I think it was the Dakota) and all at once our little Cessna 152 started bouncing around and behaving sort of weird. I asked my instructor what that was all about and he told me it was the vorticii from the wings of the plane ahead of us. I can tell you I did not like that at all. I have been told that a 757's wing vorticii can flip a 737. You really get them when the plane is flying hot, heavy, and slow. They teach you how to avoid the problem by either landing in front of where the plane in front of you landed or waaaay behind it. Otherwise, you may find yourself up-side-down.

Vorticii are powerful whether you are talking about water, air, or maybe even magma. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some very slow eddies in magma, but it is so thick and crystaline that it may not work as I don't think there are any vorticii in window glass. But you never know. What could be going on at the molecular level? I have seen the original glass double doors at Jefferson's home Monticello and you can see the waviness in the glass. BTW, you open one of the doors and the other one opens as they are driven by a figure 8 chain under the floor. Original chain, too. If you have never been to Monticello, do go if you can. It is a really neat place.

Here's a Mulakot webcam time-lapse of yesterday's dust storm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzOmr6u8k5E
You wouldn't want to be out in that!

@dt9Rotterdam -

No, I would not want to be out in that - although at MÃºlakot it was... pretty tame, as inferred from other data.

I appreciate the fact that our storms very, very seldom reach 25 m/s, compared to 40 m/s in gusts in this one.

@dt9Rotterdam -

No, I would not want to be out in that - although at MÃºlakot it was... pretty tame, as inferred from other data.

I appreciate the fact that our storms very, very seldom reach 25 m/s, compared to 40 m/s in gusts in this one.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ click on the home page and look for eyjafjall webcam its shows video footage one i like most was Eyjafjallajokull at the crater

OT:

Just plain odd. Using the USGS data, this is a plot of the number of days between quakes mag 6.9 or above, world wide.

http://i49.tinypic.com/15d50mv.png

The odd part is 1988 to 1990. Any Geo specialists around then care to elaborate what was going on? Major shift in technology and/or resources?

Just curious.

Apologies if these have already been posted, but there are some awesome photos taken of Yasur in Vanuatu.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/volcano-bombs-eruption.html

@44: data gaps, 1986-1990, and outlier bias.

So I guess that makes this a lunch bias for Iceland...

11:00 to 12:00, look for 18 to 21 km deep quakes.

http://i50.tinypic.com/ve4zsj.png

Magnitude isn't so weird.... not a real specific cluster at midnight or lunch.

http://i50.tinypic.com/dos7c3.png

(bored s'less)

Sampling temporal duration isn't long enough to establish a trend, because there could be confounding factors, like seasonal (temperature, melting, wind) bias, or sources of electronic (false signal positives) errors*. You also have questionable data quality in negative magnitudes reported.

*Could have bias from ongoing regional geothermal project construction during this period.

Another source of induced analysis bias is the smoothing window selected.

All your data is telling you is that there isn't much of a discernible pattern of distribution about the average.

Is the distribution of values 'normal' (natural phenomena usually post as normal or log normal distributions)?

(on boredom, you too could be writing reports on WNV, be glad)

Nonetheless, I still think there is a trend for lunch. Lunch is always a good thing. It give you a chance to ponder the 200 miles you put down that morning and contemplate what exactly you are gonna do once you get there.

I hate road days, but they pay well.

And... the lunchtime cluster is amusing. As for the smoothing window, that's the line, the raw data are the dots. Dunno if I can wrangle them into a smiley face though...

Hi to you all !

Quite a good steam plume coming from Eyja,now visible on Thoro cam.

POPO is glowing again though not as vigorously as last week.

I think he'll let out a blast or 2 sometime this summer.

Just after I posted I went back, there must have been clouds before because the glow is now quite strong.
It is reflecting off the billowing material(steam?) for probably hundreds of feet.

@Diane:
Yes, in a way I was thinking about windows flowing like in the Monticello (One of the places I must go to one of these days:). But I was more thinking in the way of a glass rod hanging suspended, the flow pattern is more exact there and you do not have to worry about the glass shattering.
Here I do have to make many sad, the waviness seen in old glass is not glass-flow, it is due to the glass panes having been blown, not floated. Pilkingtons floated glass technic was not invented when Monticello was built.
The way to see glass flow is to measure the top and bottom of old glass, if the top is thinner than the bottom, then you have glass-flow. The waviness and stuff in old glass will rather even out over time than oposite.

Back to the vortex (eddy) thingamabit:)
Yes as you say, we do not really have a clue about how the mantle is built up. We have secondary (tertiary really if you think about it) samples from it, but no real samples from the mantle since no one ever has drilled into it. As far as I know the only real tertiary sample is the drill core one from Kraflas magma-chamber. Otherwise only quartiary samples from the top of volcanos. The rest of it is only deduced theories not tested against reallity.
With the risk of angering Erik here, the only thing we know is that there are gasses, and that the viscosity in the mantle can differ in between placces and that when it cools off (as magma) it can become rhyolitic mush (one sample). Otherwise it might only be nice theories, even though I agree with many of them and that the Krafla drill sample made many of the theories much more likely.
But for all we know the actual mantle might consist of snowman dung for all we know. Science is a hard thing.

Know with that off my chest, back to your question.
Yes, gasses and different viscosities would affect a vortex heavilly since it chanes the rate of possible ascent upwards. Highly viscous gassy material would rise much faster and would probably be what tipped the balance and made the volcano go off. But this is speculation on my part since we do not know enough of the composition of the mantle.

Tilt and rotation caused by earth revolvement.
Yes, you are absolutely correct. A magmatic (Yes Ekoh, I know) vortex would revolve in the same direction as the toilett next to it when flushed.
I am though not so sure of earths polar tilt affecting it though.
Normal plumes are tilted due to tectonic plate movement (If I have understood things correctly), but here we do not have real tectonic movement. What! Am I Crazy? Here we have the mother of all tectonics!
The tectonic movement at the MAR is pretty much the lowest on the planet, due to it being the origin of the american and eurasian plate movement. Yes it moves apart with 2,5cm a year on average, but those the MAR in itself move? I do not know. If the MAR in itself is moving, then we have a tilted plum, if not it might be untilted.
The might be untilted comes from me not really being fully shure about if the MAR, the mantle, and the cores relative speeds. If all of them move in the same speed, Straight vortex. If the MAR is standstill and mantle moves, un-straight. And the most fun of them. Let's say that MAR and Core are same-speed and the Mantle is moving at another speed, then we have a strangely curved vortex that would loose some energy. And this was more idle speculation.

Your airplane analogy is nice, the energy in a vortex can be tremendous, if there is a vortex like that between GrimsvÃ¶tn and Askja then it is so powerrfull that it has lifted the entire Iceland and a large portion outside of it 50 metres from just the shear upwelling force of it. Really humbling if you think of it.

@#48 Hi Lurking,

Your last comment,in brackets,sums things up perfectly.

Lurking, what you are seeing in your plot is a cessation of the lowest level seismic signals. You have it again at 7pm. You have a minor opposite in the early hours. For the geotech folk, it is typically interpreted as a change in background level - ie, noise within raw data, bias from human activity.

Rock embedded piping will resonate with major changes in heat flow. We see these in water demand plots. A serious chunk of the population gets it's hot water and heat in Southern Iceland from long, long network runs of geothermal system piping. That would bias a large portion of the seismic detection network, the SIL.

*squint* Get a clue: if I use a statistical term like 'smoothing window', ya think I might know a bit about data plotting??

In this case, you, like Carl, are chasing red herrings with his vortices and flowing glass.

Window glass doesn't flow perceptibly, even over many hundreds of years- it's another of the endless physics myths that is perpetuated by the public.

http://www.phys.ncku.edu.tw/mirrors/physicsfaq/General/Glass/glass.html

Ed, a geology expert who knows a bit about mantle processes (he's a petrologist), tactfully dispatched Carl's theory'. Carl didn't get the clue. Now he is prattling on about 'How Much We Don't Know', the fallback of the science-naive public when their ignorance is laid bare.

What's happening at Mulakot? Lots of people, cars and truck are there now and were there yesterday. Conference? Science Club? Fishing?
http://www.mulakot.net/myndavelar.html

@#57 Hi Jane,

Mulakot is primarily an airfield so im surmising that the activity is "aircraft orientated".The weather is pretty bad though.

@passerby. I guess the question is (as a beginner): Has anyone applied fluid dynamics to the movement of the mantle and plates? Solids move, albeit slowly. I think pointing Carl in the direction of geophysicists who use fluid dynamics might be more useful than just shutting him down. -)

Hi Carl. Intriguing ideas and thank you. Although my primary degrees are in biochemistry and related sciences, I have spent a lot of time lately studying theories of bioenergetics, which first took me in the direction of particle and theoretical physics, and now I am looking at the earthâs regulatory systems on a macro level, ie considering the earth as a living entity in itself. I am trying to gain a greater understanding of earthquakes and eruptions as part of the earths self correction mechanisms, especially during a period of global warming, but need to gain a greater understanding of the geophysics of earths itself as a starting point. I hope that some of the real experts here will debate your ideas further, and while the model may not be perfect it will be interesting to see why this could not be occurring, if that is the case.

Thanks d9tRotterdam for the Mulakot webcam time-lapse. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzOmr6u8k5E. If you look, especially at the early section there is what looks quite like an eruption plume, which at first glance appears to come from Ejaf; the only problem with this is that high winds are blowing from left to right, so it cant be coming from Ejaf. Comments anyone?

The only eruption plume on that video, is the Original plume, wich sits on the top of the main crater.
there is somewhat that looks like steaming from the side, but i recon its only low fog clouds, generated by the mountain and rising air,..

@Jane [57] -

Looks like a party - and like always, the weather participates. :D

@Passerby

"Get a clue"

Nice. You make a blanket statement that dismisses the whole graph and I point out that the raw data is also in there and you take offense?

"...Sampling temporal duration isn't long enough to establish a trend, because there could be confounding factors, like seasonal (temperature, melting, wind) bias, or sources of electronic (false signal positives) errors*. You also have questionable data quality in negative magnitudes reported."

I never claimed to be an expert at seismology and geophysics, I just make plots and ask questions. I don't put forth any ground breaking theories that rattle the framework of human understanding. I just look at data and make plots. The lunch time cluster just looked amusing to me, and since it's at about 18 to 21 km deep.... seemed to be a bit outside of the realm of human activity. I can't hazard a guess as to why... other than possibly being an artifact of someone coming in after lunch and looking at a chart that was spit out while they were absent. It wasn't until I had posted that I noticed that there is a lighter and more diffuse version of the deep lunchtime cluster from midnight to 3 am UTC.

As for Geothermal plant influence, I don't think they drill that deep... 65600 feet would be one very deep well. It would be interesting to read an idea of what mechanism could do that.

The obvious connection is the position of the Sun relative to Iceland.. but as has been pointed out, this is just a fractional slice of time, even though it is over two months long. To incorporate a longer series of observations would require access to data that I don't have. I could disassemble the Icelandic quakes from the Google plugins, but those points seem to have a loss of depth resolution, even for recent data.

In summary, laypeople such as myself rely on people who seem to have a clue to explain the oddities we see. I for one am enjoying the alternative to mantle plume / buried crust block idea as being stated by Carl. And I also enjoy the ideas concerning the extensional movement of Iceland's fault complexes and seismic zones that you have presented.

So... for now I'm just going to go can some pickles.

@62 Kultsi
And they didn't invite us? After all the publicity we have given them? tsk :)

about that vortex theory,.

as I have learned, the MAR(Mid Atlantic Ridge), does not move much, but it moves, it expands and contracts,and shifts directions from time to time, remember that Greenland and North America have colided with Norway(europe) creating the largest mountain range ever created , the caledonian mountain range(it was heven taller than the Himmalayas,the remains are still visible as the SunnmÃ¶rsalps and Langfjella mountain range, and it extends well in to Sweden and Finland, and down to wards the British isles(mountain ranges in Scotland are also a part of that if I dont remember wrong,.

so that means that the MAR, has been contracting, before it started to expand again(why these occur no one really knows)

the MAR, has an arm expanding downwards towards Norway, and outside the Northern Norway lies a gigantic hotspot VÃ¸ring platau)(its not reconed to be hot anymore??) but the caldera there is tremendous 50 Miles wide(Norwegian Mile = 10 Km)
that hotspot caldera(volcano) must have been formed the same way Iceland was formed, maybe by the same hotspot ,and the Hotspot Moved with the MAR, so the Norwegian caldera cooled down, its logic,when the MAR expanded and the continents drifted apart the hotspot plume folowed and later formed Iceland??

and now back to the vortex, deep down there, of course its logic and makes somekind if sence ,the whole mantle and magma moves and rotates, and are effected by the rotation of the planet. as the oceans and Airmass moves,so there must be vortex movement down deep, probably looking much like large hurricanes and lov preassures,and they probaly rotates somewhat the same..
But we must not forget the large tidal wave ,from the moon.. the moon makes a large wave, that move with the moon around the Earth, and it retracts and expands every 6 hours,.
I recon that this is the same deep down under the crust, the pull from the moon and the sun must make a similar wave on the magma??

#63 Gentlemen, please! No grudges. Keep the interesting discussion going. Of course, there are brilliant experts here, to whom we are mostly grateful, but this is not the Academy. After all, what is the purpose of a blog like this? I suppose people are entitled to post their comments freely, and should be glad to be contradicted from those who know more, or at least, who are able to contribute with a different point of view. And in doing so, some light may be cast upon controversial issues concerning the invisible deeds of Mother Nature.
@Lurking's graphs may not be the state of the art, but they help us a lot, computer dummies, to visualize things from a different perspective, and thus, gives room to someone like @Carl to theorize with his own tools, in a brilliant way.
And therefore, thousand thanks to @Passerby whose keen eyes and ears are always attentive to detect whatever slips maybe made regarding scientific procedures.
Could it be any better?
Meanwhile, Lady E still shows signs that she might not be over yet.

btw, could man make a volcano , by drilling? if they drilled deep enough??

@Thor #67 All I can say with my poor Geological knowledge is that they've drilled into magma both in Hawaii and Iceland when exploiting geothermal energy. Well, if you injected water and dug a wider hole, hmmm... I don't think it could lead to anything much different from an eruption. But, to state that would become a real volcano, I don't think I could. I'll try to get the links to these incidents and post them further.

Aircraft... rainbow... horses... steam plume!
EyjafjallajÃ¶kull volcano eruption 3 July 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoM-U0hGORk

http://hvg.heinemann.co.uk/login.aspx youtube How volcanoes form click on this and you will find the page is broken but wait a second or two and scroll down the page

ignore the above link i got it from youtube the above you have to pay just look for it on youtube

god im dumb you can go on the link@ 70 go to the bottom right to his blog

@67 if we drilled in to earth and drilled into hot magma.the hole would cool very rapid and seal almost straight away you would need millions and millions liters of vodka {Topgear} and magma prove drill just to get the tip in it wont happen

ejaf is emitting a nice steam plume best seen on the

EyjafjallajÃ¶kull frÃ¡ Hvolsvelli cam

look at porolf cam mila down to the right that fog thing

so its totaly impossible to make a man made volcano?? im not so sure..

#76 @Thor That's the link to the post I mentioned:
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/06/drilling_into_active_magma.php
If they stopped drilling they feared something, didn't they?

oilspill Bp is man made i would class that a volcano.And why would you want to create a man made volcano?looking on the web its already been happening man made volcanoes.
Anyway could this be happening to Eyjafj,One such obstacle is an accumulation of pumice,which can create a massive stoppage in the magma pipes.How ever once the magma finally breaks through its barrier and explosion type eruption will usually takes place. taken from Topbits.com http://www.topbits.com/how-a-volcano-erupts.html

#69 Thanks for the new time-lapse, d9tRotterdam. There are so many details to see in it, I had to replay it a couple of times.

@78

Well... If a volcano is where something fluid/semi-fluid is coming up from the ground. Then yes. But it's more of a man-made Asphalt Volcano. Those occur naturally, but as far as I know, are not as prolific in their activity. In 1906, one probably went off in a violent fashion, but usually they are content to stay in an "ooze" state.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt_volcano

" Using high-resolution sonar equipment, David B. Prior from Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge and his colleagues identified the crater in 2,176 meters of water southeast of the Mississippi River delta. The elliptical hole measures 280 meters across, 400 meters long and some 58 meters deep, and sits atop a small hill. Downslope lies approximately 2 million cubic meters of ejected sediment.
Because the area is known for its reservoirs of hydrocarbons, Prior surmises these substances caused the explosion that produced the crater. As one possible explanation, he suggests hydrocarbons seeping upward along cracks in the seafloor might have collected under some impermeable barrier until pressure forced the buoyant gas to blow off its cover. Based on the crater's appearance, the researchers think it may be younger than a century old. In 1906, sailors in the area reported seeing bubbling water, which may have been caused by such an eruption."

Science News, Feb 4, 1989

As for the man-made volcano status... it's about as valid a candidate as the Sidoarjo Mud Volcano in Malaysia.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidoarjo_mud_volcano

Well... ya got me to reading again.

The Sidoarjo mud volcano, if you can believe data derived from wikipedia, is still at the 100,000 mÂ³/ day flow rate. Over the period o June 06 to Sept 07, about 45,000,000 mÂ³ have come out of the hole. During this time, subsidence is estimated to be between 0.5 to 14.5 m.

Our BP cano... if you use the high FRTG number of 40,000 bbl/day, is at about 457,883 mÂ³ of total flow. 686,825 mÂ³ if you believe the higher flow estimate of 60,000 bbl/day that a University of Georgia scientist stated.

The depth of the fetid fizzling fissure in Sidoarjo was 9,298 feet. The source of BP's boiling pustule is 18,000 feet.

So... BP is over twice the depth, and at 6% to 9% of the flow rate of Sidoarjo. I imagine that things would have to get substantially worse in order for a caldera like depression to start forming at BP's shindig.

@Passerby:
Hm, I think you missed a couple of points in what I wrote.

But that is only good since I obviously was a bit unclear:)

First of all I agree with Ed (I guess that would be Ekoh), he most likely has a good and vallid point. Why? He pointed to something that might actually put my little theory out completely.
What is that then? Simply put (simplified), the internal resistence (friction times pressure) of the semi-solids making up the composition of the mantle might be to large for a vortex to be able to spin up.
But, and this might be a big but that needs a lot of thinking! That would probably make all kinds of plums go out the window. Because if the internal resistance is to big for one type (vortex) than it is likely to be to big for a straight up-welling plume too.
Intriguingly enough Ed pointed out something in what he wrote that is massively interesting and that I did not know. (That is why I love to chat with the real experts when I am out of my own field of expertise.)
The thing he pointed out was that plumes are probably made up out of hotter and more viscous material. What so great with that?
Well, let's say that you had a nice blob of hotter and more viscous material to start with, and that started spinning. Then that would slowly start to suck up the slightly colder and more "un-viscous" material. Whats up with that? Friction! Friction equals energy production, and that energy can only go into one form. Heat. So the un-viscous colder material would than heat up and go into viscous. That process could then probably keap up as the pent up energy just keapt on building up untill you had a vortex-plum reaching far down.

Passerby, I am very much aware that I am fishing a bit in my theory and that I am not in my field here. But, I am a good physicist and the logics is sound in its own way. There is probably something wrong somewhere in my theory and I am looking forward to someone shooting me in the foot.
But thing is that there is a plume there, the only difference with the standard model and my vortex is that I put into a spin since that explains a couple of things more than the standard plume.

Glass! If you re-read what I wrote you will see that I killed of the myth of glass flowing being visible. I was talking about the much slower actual flowing of glass.

Mantle-composition! You know as well as I do that nobody have taken a drill-sample of the material in there, so I do not really get what you are talking about. Theory is one thing, and most of them are probably correct, but without physical proof, they are just theories.

And Passerby, you idea of of hot water piping causing lowered earthquake energy during lunch was the funniest red herring I have ever heard. There quite simply is not enough energy around in the pipes for that. The Icelandic thermal plants are very small, around 20 to 80 megawatts each. And what it had with lunch I do not understand at all, unless you actually had a red herring for lunch. Think about it...
I guess you got it from the alarmist theory that the drilling at Krafla having started the "Krafla-fires". And that was ludicrous to start with since the energy in a drill hole is very small. If your pipes is a fly in the next block over, then a drill hole is like a mosquito in sahara affecting you. Word for the day, power-proportionality.

@thor:
Good points!
It shows how unclear I have been:)
I would like to say that if by chance I would have a point in my speculation of the plume spinning and being caused top down instead of down to top, I have to warn against even trying to use it in other places than this particular spot of Iceland since it is derrived out of the unusual circumstances of that region in Iceland.
I would also like to point out that it is a short lived phenomena (in geological times). This vortex I am talking of would probably not have been around at the times you are talking about, it was started and is powered by that unusual bend in the fracture zones and volcanic zones.
Let's say that the line from Hveragardhi to Kolbinsey ridge became the main point where iceland separated instead of the line GrimsvÃ¶tn to Kolbinsey, then the vortex would start to die off emediatly. But that would still require that a new line of fracturing opened up from LangjÃ¶kull to Kolbinsey (the part from Hveragardhi to LangjÃ¶kull is already fractured.

My point is that if my little model is correct, then it would still only be a local modell for iceland.

KVERT and Ebeko Volcano Lives!

KVERT released an update for Ebeko due to it's increased acticity on the second of july so it seems like they didn't die off.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo

@Carl, the lunch thing was mine, Passerby just commented on it. I though it was as good a reason as any to explain an odd cluster in my graph of 18 to 21 km deep quakes that tend to occur in Iceland around lunch (1100-1200 UTC). There is also a more temporally diffuse and deeper group (25 km) that occur from midnight to three (0000-0300).

http://i50.tinypic.com/ve4zsj.png

The sample group is limited, only taking in about two and half months, and was more of just a weird plot to see what it looked like. I never was trying to make a point.

Well, for my 2c, Carl, I am very much enjoying the theorizing and debate. I like your style.

re the suction aspect - that reminds me of the push/pull discussion going on: i.e. as to whether continental drift is driven by the MOR pushing the ocean plates apart or, alternatively, the ocean plates are getting ripped apart by the pull exerted on them as they "sink" at destructive plate margins.

One thing that comes to mind about your theory is that if such a vortex is a product of a shear in the MOR it would suggest you would also find anomalous amounts of melt at other "kinks" in the ridge, like the Kane Fracture Zone off the coast of Brazil or the Chile Rise to take two at random. Is this the case? Or is the tectonic setting there "cleaner" in its fractures than Iceland?

ive just watch a movie called Magma,volcanic Disaster The core expanding they used nukes in the North Atlantic Ridge to ease the pressure the film was released in 2006

@Leon #86 Maybe you and Diane N CA should meet for a discussion (or laughter) on the subject. :)
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/07/mystery_volcano_photo_22.php #36

How strange thanks Renato also just watch volcano under new york drilling to make energy, both films gave ideas even the co2 that got mention made me think of the current co2 rise that has made headlines in recent months, Can volcanoes be to blame there no other answer than that surly, you cant see co2

@Leon: I didn't watch the film, but CO2 is an issue concerning volcanoes. I'm not quite sure, but I read there was a number of incidents in California (Yosemite Park?) with dead trees and people getting intoxicated in ponds. CO2 emissions are not felt, but can be pretty hazardous in high concentrations. But there are other volcano gases far more toxic than CO2 and the amount of CO2 produced by burning of fossil fuel (incident in the Gulf) or wood fires is far greater than that from volcanoes, but it will affect the whole climate not individuals as I think is what you meant.

my last question for today. looking at the Supervolcanoes monitoring system what does last activity mean? i do have an idea but iam not sure as some of them are saying current dates,example:Naples-Italy-27/06/10..New-Zealand-Toypo volcanic zone-03/07/10 and New-Zealand North islands again-03/07/10 as these have not erupted for thousands to millions of years. I have done a lot of reading on Yellow stone and there a two way debate 1 says no it will never erupt like has done the three times in history before, and other says yes it will!.i also understand that 2009 was a new record for increase in earthquakes worldwide with 2010 set to beat that with 150per cent increase.It seems to me that its quite possible for at least one super eruption to happen in our life time i say within ten years if the current trend continues,everything is increasing co2,climate shift/change, storms/hurricanes, worldwide cooling,volcanic with the Bp oil spill adding to the problems.maybe all fields of research and data science every piece info should be brought together to the table everythink has a connection or chain link possible or not?.

Renato yeah didnt think to add them its been a long day .what i find strange is that co2 continues to rise while worldwide temps level of.And i didnt say you watch the film i found it strange how i pick the same 2 film as Dianne.i leave you these two links he makes me laugh. http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146...major-cooling.on.way.worldwide…
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?search=co2

@Leon: I understand your concern. Maybe one of the problems is that one you mentioned of much information brought together (via Internet) but not in an evidence-supported way. You have to be careful with information you get: there are many websites that say whatever they want, with no scientific basis. And we tend to assume that problems happening now are bigger then they've ever been, but if you look back into historical data you'll see it is not quite so. Yes, we have concerns with a world becoming smaller and growing populations, affecting global climate with industries and all, but we also know that big peaks of CO2 have happened before, so we must take good care of this planet, which so far is the only home we have. But don't get stuck on those apocalyptic stuff , it won't happen as easily as it sounds. Yes, there are big volcanoes that formed calderas, but there's nothing "super" on them, since they've behaved most of the time as gently as other regular volcanoes.

@Leon #91 Funny video, thanks for posting. And take the good advice from it: enjoy the weather!

@Leon / Renato I Silveira

Back before I had this gee wizz graphing program, I did several plots of Yellowstone during a couple of it's swarms. ( it tends to have them ) The plots I did were limited to depth verses time in Excel, they were a hoot. You could see the depth trending up from the magma chamber and then back down again. I still have the Feb 2010 graphics from that.

http://i47.tinypic.com/207q8te.png

And an over view of where in the Caldera it was at.

http://i50.tinypic.com/520yhc.png

The 2008/2009 swarm started under the lake and slowly migrated to the North and eventually petered out northeast of Fishing Bridge. That area is where logically, if you DR out the historical track of the hotspot (15 million year run) is about where it should be at. Most of the sensible people were expecting a hydrothermal explosion at worse along the north shore area. Digging around the net a bit, you would find that there is a ridge with fresh rock that was found in the lake a few years ago. This was where the swarm began. It was quite the show... from a data plotting point of view.

Precious material, Lurking! I'll have to go to bed now, but tomorrow I'll watch them more carefully.
Good night everyone.

@leon 99

Leon, Renato is right. Take what you read with a big grain of salt. For example the info on the Taupo Volcanic Zone is just plain wrong. The TVZ had its last major eruption in 1886 which is just the blink of an eye in geological terms. Taupo itself has erupted at least 27 times in the last 26,000 years, three of which were huge eruptions by todays standards.

More to the point, the Taupo system is described as a chaotic system, meaning its past behavior makes it almost impossible to predict its future eruptive patterns and certainly frustrates any attempt to forecast any exact dates for a future eruption.

re my false alarm about Ngauruhoe. Have a look at this for some serious wind noise (there is a winter storm going through):
http://www.geonet.org.nz/images/volcano/drums/ch/wtvz/10/drum.png

Makes me more confident that Geonet actually did bump up its amplitude gain recently.

@bruce stout [96]

"...the Taupo system is described as a chaotic system, meaning its past behavior makes it almost impossible to predict its future eruptive patterns..."

{snicker}

Now where have I heard that before...

... oh yeah, the Stock Broker caveat:

"past performance is not indicative of future results"

@Bruce Stout:
Thank you for pointing out my obvious flaw:)
Now that I have read up on KFZ it seems like there are no processes like the vortex at all going on there. But, it is an old inactive fracture zone. Though I found some intriguing comments on it in an article. It is there mentioned that the KFZ has a slow rotation xounter-clockwise. That might, or might not, support the vortex idea. Mainly it is a bit interesting.
My take KFZ is that it lacked something that Iceland has, that I haven't taken into account. There is something more playing in Iceland I would guess. What? Help!
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m3276ul60127821p/

I found some other fracture Zones that was equally clean as KFZ that didn't have any volcanic signs, but then I found 2 that actually could have or had a vortex plume. I know waaaay to little about these volcanic islands to say anything really.

At Ascension Fracture Zone you have some features that actually look quite a bit like Iceland with local ridges pushed up, complex rifting and a volcanic island close by that seems to be fairly stable. You also have 2 nice seamounts (Grattan and Stewart) close by. What these might have to do with anything I do not know. If, large if, there is a vortex here it is a small one.

The second is of course the Azores. There you have complex rifting, a nice uplifted bank (hotspot?), fractore zones, volcanix zones, what looks like a local subducton zone. Without having done any calculations or going indepth it looks very intriguing from my point of view and might hold a quite large vortex-plume. And I just love the pictures of the Good Morning volcano:)

Another thing I noticed is that it looks like there was a rather large island around the same spot about a hundred million or more years ago, and that the island cracked apart and that half drifted to the east, and the other half to the west.
If you look at google earth you will find Great Meteor Tablemount and Cruiser Tablemount to the East, and to the West the Rockaway-Yakutat Seamount. Interesting if nothing else. If that once was a large island, then that vortex would have been going, stopping, and starting again. That suggests there is some triggering factor I don't really get.

Nice question Bruce!

@ lurker.. my history on the share market is absolutely abysmal. The only think I have ever half-way prophesized correctly (apart from having my account tax-barred which I am getting pretty good at predicting) is the eruption at Fimmvorduhalsi.

@ Carl, it's interesting you mentioned the Azores as I looked at those in Google Earth while zooming around the planet's MOR's and thought, hmm, they're could be another candidate for your theory. BTW, what is that massive circular feature directly south of Sao Miguel Island and stretches all the way to Sao Pedro? Looks like an impact crater but I am reticent to read too much into Google Earth as there are some artifacts in there (look at the scar crossing the Kermadec Trench for example).

@Bruce:
Are you looking at "the collapsed caldera-mathingy" between Sao Miguel and Sao Maria?
If that is the crater-like thing you are talking about I would guess it is a collapsed caldera. You have 3 small rim islets in the south-east.

I guess you could get vorticii as soon as you have complex rifting. But it would of course never occur close to subduction volcanos.

Thing is that one should really check which of the volcanos are still active. It probably is a Hawaii like moving hotspot since the islands are stringed out like that. But if the volcanos are "active" on most islands in the chain, then it would be a vortex candidate. Off to read up on the azorian volcanos for me.

@Bruce part II
Just looked at the sum of volcanos in the azores. Pretty much all of the main volcanos in the eastern grouping are active like crazy. The 2 islands to the west of MAR seems to be less active, and for obvious reasons I totally disregarded Madeira since the inly reason for their inclusion in the azores seems to be political and not sub-surfaces tectonical;)
I would say the likelihood increased of this being another place with surface static plumes that can be explained with a collection of vortix-plumes.

Carl, yep that's it. If its volcanic its bigger than Toba!
100 km x 70 km.. that's just a wee bit too far on the side of mind-boggling, so for the moment I'll just assume it's another artifact.
I'm at work at the moment but I'm itching to read up more about the Azores now!! All I know is they have some pretty impressive calderas for a MOR setting so there is obviously much more at play here too, just like Iceland in fact!

check out the activity right now, july 5, EDT 9:13 AM, on Bardabunga, Iceland. A 3.0 --if verified.

Hello everyone, I am really enjoying reading your comments about the worldwide volcanic activity.

I have been looking at the sheer number of volcanoes located in Iceland and I am awestruck at how many there are in a relatively small area. I brought Iceland up on Google Earth and zoomed in just enough to see the water surrounding the island, it almost seems that the entire island is just the peak of a large caldera, if you look just south of the island you can almost see where there was a very large lava flow at one time

Not quite the peak of a giant caldera... what exactly is down there is a subject for discussion. Hotspot, Underlying oceanic crust fragment... it gets kicked around a bit. Iceland is about 40km thick in the vicinity of GrÃmsvÃ¶tn and about 20km thick near EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. It has lots of volcanoes, some of them active, sits astride a spreading center (Mid Atlantic Ridge) and to top it off, has all these neat quake stacks poking up through the crust... usually to a pre-existing volcano.

30 Days of Quakes - 5 June to 5 July, perspective view looking North West.

http://i46.tinypic.com/331d287.png

@106 i like your graphs looks easy to read and to my question of above i dont believe in everythink i read thats why i ask you all here you seem to know what your taking about.i got the supervolcanos info from National association of radio Distress and infocommunication [Emergency and Disaster infomation services]EDIS. havaria@rsoe.hu or http://hisz.roes.hu/alertmap/index2.php and lot of them showed recent activity[meaning EQ or Tremor] as you go on to this site you get a map of the world scroll out and you get all this info

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/

@#106 Lurking,Hi,

Do you remember back around a month ago you did a correlation graph showing 'quakes under both Eyja and Katla,looking North ? Any chance of an updated one from 01/06/2010 to 05/07/2010.
Many Thanks in advance,Adrian.

Well, as of right now they don't show any quakes there on the 5th. (19:01:00 on the 4th is the latest)

But here is a rendition from June 1st to July 5th, view North.

http://i49.tinypic.com/fdvrz4.png

Lurking,many thanks thats great.Seems to be more quakes under Godabunga....New fissure that you we're wondering about ? I tend to agree.

Yeah,I know,a lot of speculation ! Who knows etc..

A plan view of that area was placed in "Mystery Volcano Photo #22" at post 46, but it only covers 12 to 13 days of quakes.

i47.tinypic.com/jl15dv.png

Umm, I tried copy/pasting that link but it just took me back here.

Well, many browsers will auto complete for you.

I strip the http bit off to keep from setting off the Spam Filter on the blog.

At three is gets mad.

Try this:

http://i47.tinypic.com/jl15dv.png

hi does anyone have a web cam link for katla, the one i have is switched off

I have two questions to post before I go to bed:
1. I was looking for the âmissing partâ (at least to me, so far) of volcanism over the so called âPacific Ring of Fireâ and I found out on Google Earth that there IS a belt of volcanoes in Antarctica closing the southernmost part of the circle. But no subduction zones showing. What causes these Antarctic volcanoes to be there? Mantle plumes?
2. I read that the rocks of SÃ£o Pedro e SÃ£o Paulo located to the northeast of Brazil are a rare example of exposed mantle. Are they quaternary or tertiary mantle? Was it caused by rifting? They arenât aligned with Ascension and Azores-Madeira archipelagos...
Donât bother to answer, but I would love to understand the processes involved.
Be back tomorrow. Night folks!!!

@Leon #116 I tried this one and works for me
http://www.ruv.is/katla/
Night!

To add to the science debate, The vortex idea is very interesting, one wonders if, to quote Nasa
'NASA scientists using data from the Indonesian earthquake calculated it affected Earth's rotation, decreased the length of day, slightly changed the planet's shape, and shifted the North Pole by centimeters. The earthquake that created the huge tsunami also changed the Earth's rotation.'

This MUST have created currents inside the mantle
Now we know viscous solids move very slowly, and that iceland is pretty much opposite Indonesia on the globe, so perhaps the recent activity in iceland is the 'ripples' from Indonesia travelling around the planet and all kind of meeting at iceland and sloshing up.

Bit like if you had 4 people at each corner of a bath of water who all create a wave at the same moment, when they all meet, you can get a fairly large spike of water forming in the middle of the bath.
Its just a thought, and I'm no scientist, just an artist who has spent many hours observing the motion of things around me.

And reading through this http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/01/050112194812.htm

' Earth's oblateness (flattening on the top and bulging at the equator) decreased by a small amount', which might account for the volacnic activity at the north pole,the earths 'waistline' at the equater got tighter, stands to reason the pressure caused by that has to be released somewhere

@Renato thanks but thats one i got and its blank unless they switched off

@#115 Lurking,Hi,

Thanks very much for that link.That data really is food for thought;got me thinking.
Thanks again,Adrian.

@leon [121] -

You must have the Windows Media Video 9 codec installed to play that one.

at121 arr cheers mate i did have this working at one time somethink must of gone wrong i have had to re install other codec as well a week ago. thanks dude

@Bev Wallace #119 - #120 And if you think in geological time span the EQ in Chile happened when the whole mantle was still sloshing a bit from Indonesia's EQ (since it only happened 6 ys. later), so it would add up to the shifts and moves. Can you imagine?, the whole S. America was displaced by ~3 m in minutes!

Hello everyone,

Speaking of displacements,the IMO have issued another severe gale warning for Southern Iceland;winds up to 40m/s.
Thoro cam is already starting to shake.......

July 8th--look at the Porosfelli webcam for the steam coming out? Beautiful view..not a cloud. Heat cam shows it as well. And from HVO, a good look too. HVO tremor plot does show a few little spikes, and a few tremors near Katla. Gale is passed now.

is pissed off thinking, Why they call it shipment when he send things through Car and Cargo while sending through ship...!!

is posting on Twitter that he is updating his Facebook status update.

I've read through several of the reviews in your blog at this point. I like your style of blogging. I had it to one of my bookmarks and definitely will be coming back soon. Take a look at my personal site as well and tell me what you think.

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You are obviously extremely passionate about your position. I commend you on your passion and urge you to keep it up. Thanks. - I will not eat oysters. I want my food dead. Not sick. Not wounded. Dead. Woody Allen Born 1935

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for June 16-22, 2010

eklemetti — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 01:41:35 +0000

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for June 16-22, 2010

The latest news from the world of volcanoes, brought to us by the Global Volcanism Program, USGS and the Smithsonian Institution. They are also brought to us by Sally Kuhn Sennert - and if you have a question for her about her job at the GVP preparing the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report and all things volcanic (and hopefully it won't end like another recent volcanically-mitigated interview).

Some highlights (not including Gorely and Sakurajima):

Ioto (aka Iwojima) in the Volcano Islands of Japan produced an ash plume of unknown height. The volcano has frequent phreatic eruptions and abundant fumarolic activity.
Colombia's Nevado del Huila has been experiencing increased seismicity and sulfur dioxide emissions from the volcano and there may have been some ash explosions. The INGEOMINAS elevated the alert status to Orange.
Batu Tara in Indonesia produced a 3 km / 10,000 foot ash plume - the volcano erupts highly undersaturated lavas such as basanites and tephrites thanks to its position north of the main volcanic arc.
Kilauea continues to impress, with activity at the summit lava lake producing tephra and fresh spatter downwind from the vent.
Soufriere Hills on Montserrat produced a number of pyroclastic flows produced from the collapse of the summit domes. There was also a lahar generated during the week's activity.

eklemetti Wed, 06/23/2010 - 21:41

Big E hasn't finished just yet maybe, the GPS is showing marked upward movement in the last couple of days and to the north.

Webcam for Nevado del Huila here

http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/webcam/popayan/webcam_Huila.html

hi all just looking at the oil leak/spill photo on weatheronline.com will this leak affect the gulf stream in the near future if they dont cap it in time

Well, "can" and "will" are two very different critters.

Can it affect the Gulf Stream? That really depends on what you define as "affect." Yes the oil can get into it, and in all likelihood, it eventually will. The question then is how much and what nature the oil will be in when it gets there. (either globules, slicks, particles, or wads of crude)

Can it affect the flow of the Gulf Stream? Probably... but how? Changing the evaporative rate of the gulf so that the heating/cooling ratios are different? Okay... how much change do you need to see an effect? How much does the oil move those ratios around? Does it change the reflectivity of the water? I don't have an answer for that.

I also don't have an answer for how the characteristics of "spume" will change. Yes, "spume" is is a real word. It's the stuff that is torn off of the tops of waves in a storm. The spray/foam and what ever else can be grabbed by the wind. It hangs out in the air just above the sea surface and then falls back into the water. Hurricane researchers argue all the time about how much heat energy is extracted from the spume and given up to the storm. One thing that figures in this idea is that of surface tension. At this point, surfactants come into the discussion. surfactants are substances that change the surface tension of the water. Surfactants are also used in detergent for your dishes to break up the grease and oil so that the water can take it off. Another place you will see them are as an ingredient in dispersants used in oil spills where they do the same job.

How will that affect the spume? Will it make any tropical storms stronger? Weaker? Ya got me. It will definitely have an affect by changing the heat flow into and out of the storms, but good luck figuring out what it will be.

The Nevado de Huila webcam sure is not up to date: it's showing midnight view of last night, and it should be on EDT, about 11:20 AM.

A slight precision about soufriere hills activity. There is no new magma at the dome. The different little collapses of the summit dome were caused by heavy rainfall which provoked the fall of already instable spikes on the summit dome. Many hot point were observed but they were the result of the exposure of still hot magma after the different collapses.

@[5] ...and the reason is: the cam is down. The last view looks a bit like it's being nuked...

@Kultsi (#5)

It seemed to 'time trip' backwards. I "could have sworn" (...famous last words...) it was up to date when I posted the link a few hours ago. Shrug

@Raving [8]

I agree with you! I opened the link and it was showing a good pic of the volcano; now, nothing useful. Well, Murphy was an optimist, as s*t happens even when not thought to be possible.

Seismograph links available in link below.

http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/Principales_volcanes_de_Colombia

@3 and 4:

The Gulf of Mexico primary adverse water quality impacts from the oil spill are intensification of anoxic areas ('Dead-Zones') and physical impedance of oxygen and light penetration at the surface from the oil layer. Surfactants applied at high concentration can form their own ordered-strructure phase (called 'micellar') and float, like bubbles after entraining and dissolving oil. Thus we have very large massed patches of solubilized hydrocarbons forming reflective 'sheens' and floating oil, as seen in this image from the UMBC US Air Quality Blog:

alg.umbc.edu/usaq/images/2010_06_19_OilSlick.png

In early June, the effect of dissolved hydrocarbon biodegradation by bacteria and algae on dissolved oxygen in the water column, at depth and along monitored transects offshore, was reported on the Dauphin Island Marine Lab news blog: very low to zero. That situation has worsened over time and is complicated by changes in surface tension by undissolved and dissolved oil-surfactant phases.

Off-topic: Just at Physorg.com "Tiny clays curb big earthquakes" http://www.physorg.com/news196604550.html

The report cited by Birger above begs the geoengineering question, of trickle injection of water-clay emulsions to slowly 'lubricate' certain fault sections in densely populated urban areas of Southern California that tend to 'jump' because they don't have this clay nanolayer in place.

An interesting article: 'Nanocoatings of clay and creep of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California.' (2010)
A.M. Schleicher, B.A. van der Pluijm, and L.N. Warr.

geology.gsapubs.org/content/38/7/667.abstract

Melimoyu to all!

Melimoyo has had increased quake activity since mid march of this year.
Sernageomin has released a special report on Melimoyu volcano due to the last set of quakes that started on the 17th of june with numerous afterquakes. This set of quakes are judged to be volcanic in nature and may be asociated with magma opening a route to refill the chamber. Melimoyu is located in Southern Chile.

http://www2.sernageomin.cl/ovdas/ovdas7/informativos2/Melimoyu/2010/Rep…

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1508-052

OVDAS/Sernageomin continues to have the volcano at a raised level of observation.

And with that I leave you all to celebrate Midsummer festival in any way you wish. Since I am a Swede I will drink excessivly, chant strange viking songs about small frogs, dance around a cross with hanging balls, and of course celebrate fertility in a clearly heathen way that would make any ancient barbarian proud.

Remember the MET computer models of ASH.

Computer models DO NOT WORK in complex systems and are open to political manipulation.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487039000045753251311116377…

@Passerby [13]

Oh that just begs for a lawyer (intentionally lower case) to get involved. Supposed that is tried and the stress is relived through creep and a quake happens further up the fault.

Who's liable?

You got the concept wrong. Stress is reduced incrementally along the treated fault line and not passed up the chain because stress-strain energy isn't stored locally to the point of failure, at least not at the surface.

My understanding is that stress is moved downward, deeper into the earth as a result of clay mineral action on faulting surfaces within subduction zones. The farther that energy is located downward (at depth), the less catastrophic the wave energy action at the surface.

Deep earthquakes release more total energy, but releasing it at depth affords a large buffer in overlying strata to reduce transmission to the surface, especially if the surface fractures are made more elastic by the clay particle nanolayer than the deeper and more brittle rock strata in the crust.

Could be a dumb idea, may be impossible to move clay into these layers. It's just an idea, one that I'm reasonably confident has at least crossed the minds of the authors, and maybe reviewers, too.

@Passerby

Okay. I accept that I have the concept wrong.

But I have taken it upon myself to derive some life lesson from every ship that I had been on when on active duty.

Ship one... I learned crisis management. "Grace under pressure" (usually denoted as grace under fire, but no one ever shot at us, so I got that going for me.)

Ship two... It can always get worse, or go bad.

Ship three... Contingency planning. In other words, what are you gonna do when it invariably does get worse?

Ship four... Good luck with the plan. The Universe is quicker on its feet than any plan.

So... despite me having the concept wrong... okay, but I've seen how that works out. :D.

http://www.pia.gov.ph/?m=12&fi=p100625.htm&no=38

Soon it will be level zero and your not allowed to climb or go near a volcano in the Phillipines. Lucky in Indonesia you can actually see the beauty of a volcano and not be hounded by the government

POPO seems to have a nice glow in the pre-dawn darkness.

@Carl #14. Am intrigued by the dancing around a cross with Hanging Balls...this is just before celibrating fertility :) Sounds like a great party!

Someone is posing in front of ThÃ³rolsfell cam!

Are they interfering with tremor plots?

@Marginata [21]

This http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I5BGsK5ZAU gives you an idea of the Swedish Midsummer.

@Kultsi 24 hahhaha :) OT: In Greenland for Danish 'Sankt Hans' in the '50's the airfield guys and the mine guys would meet for a 'football' (soccer ) match - and a big outdoor feast - and burn the 'witch' in a big bonfire for good luck. One year we had to cross the river on a D-9 bulldozer to get to the party because the it had jumped its channel and was trying to wash out the airstrip. Big excitement for us kids.

Hello JÃ³n FrÃmann,

JÃ³n I just saw that your Hekla Semicorder was "stuck" at 09:56 but your probably aware of this,

Kind regards, Adrian.

Apologies,slight "brain fade" there.I meant to say Helicorder of course.

IMO seems to have lost their english translation webpage.

Popo is indeed showing vigorous steaming this morning. Worth keeping an eye on it, as it looks like fumerolic activity has erupted on the side of the volcano from a vent.

I wonder what the seismometers are showing.

The tremors on JÃ³n's plot looks suspiciously like cultural noise of Swedes chasing flying hanging balls during surstrÃ¶mmingspremiÃ¤r. Perhaps a few weeks early, no?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTuUEgjBBEc

@ Kultsi 24 - OT but thank you so much for that clip, it made my day! It looks like a Mad Hatters Tea Party being held on Fancy Dress Friday at T in the Park (big music festival in Scotland early July, cant wait!). Great stuff!

@Passerby

IMO's regular page http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/jardskjalftar/ and ongoing spectral tremor analysis suggests that the "noise" is cultural. :)

I didn't mean the IMOs tremor plots, I meant the ones from CENAPRED for Popo. After carefully comparing time series photos for the past 10 days, it appears to be in the early stages of an eruption.

In fact, it's rapidly escalating.

Confirmed.

Fumerolic (steam) eruption. We'll just wait to see if this yet one more large 'exhalation' that are quite common or another small eruption (couple weeks ago). The incandescence visible at daybreak suggests the latter.

Three webcam stations are available
http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/es/Instrumentacion/InstVolcanica/MVolcan/

http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/popo/UltimaImagenVolcanI.html
Excellent views on the Popo webcam.

And while waiting for Popo to ... here is a moonbow http://ht.ly/23idz

In my recent wanderings regarding Taal I found the following document. Wouldn't such methods be good for monitoring subglacial systems such as Katla and EyjafjallajÃ¶kull?

MONITORING ACTIVE VOLCANOES
BY ELECTROMAGNETIC AND OTHER GEOPHYSICAL METHODS

Second Workshop organized by:
The Electromagnetic Studies of Earthquakes and Volcanoes Working Group1
and
The Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Philippines2

http://www.emsev-iugg.org/emdoc/EMSEV_PHIVOLCS_2010workshop_20091201.pdf

The glow from Popo was very strong before day break. Lava must have been at the surface. Probably melting the glacier. Nice steam plume

Definite small amounts ash in the earlier pics of Popo around 7:30AM today.

Electromagnetic, geochemical and thermal investigations of Taal volcano, abstract. Jacques Zlotnicki, Feb 2010
(workshop online proceedings, per #37 above, with references)

www.intlvrc.org/EMSEV-2010-3.doc

Steam plume continuing to increase in elevation and volume.

@Passerby
They've also changed the refresh rate for the cams on El Popo - seems to be every 30 seconds, instead of the one minute they state in the caption.

Very active, I'd say, just short of an eruption.

tinyurl.com/23dweqz

#38: Sorry to be the bearer of sad tidings, but the is no glacier on Popo. Done bit the dust due to recent eruptions. Good read:

Impact of the eruptive activity on glacier evolution at PopocatÃ©petl Volcano (MÃ©xico) during 1994â2004. (2008) Julio-Miranda et al. J. Volcan. Geothermal Res. 170:86â98.

Excerpt from the abstract: The glacier evolution and subsequent extinction were induced by the eruptive behavior over the years. While not the only process at work, eruptive activity played the primary role in accelerating
retreat and as a consequence in glacier extinction.

http://www.geofisica.unam.mx/popoc/colaboracion/GTNH/files/public_mexic….

Nice find, Raving.

@Passerby (#44) Your link has been 4Ofnord

http://smsc.cnes.fr/DEMETER/

*gasp*

Remove the period at the end of the pdf hyperlink.

It's the authors manuscript copy. There is a previously published related publication, 'Glacier monitoring at PopocatÃ©petl volcano, Mexico: glacier shrinkage
and possible causes.' (2003) Huggel and Delgado.

www.geofisica.unam.mx/popoc/colaboracion/GTNH/files/public_mexico/03Hug…

I have an NASA EO satellite image from February 2009 showing the glacier remnant.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37589

Umm,Eyja is giving Popo a run for her money at present.

Some assembled video of today's activity at VolcÃ¡n PopocatÃ©petl

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/4999/poa.mp4

I was just thinking when a storm reaches the oil spill. just think how much oil the storm would pick up and hit landfall. Then rain on to the roads, then the roads become slippery?

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layou…

Whoooooops

Thanks for spreading the word about this.

Monday Musings: Russian activity, tremors at Ngauruhoe and Mayon climbers beware

eklemetti — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 00:20:18 +0000

Monday Musings: Russian activity, tremors at Ngauruhoe and Mayon climbers beware

News for Monday!

Ngauruhoe in New Zealand, showing the dark lava flows of basaltic andesite on the slopes of the young volcanic cone. Image by Erik Klemetti, taken January 2009.

A couple pieces of news from two Russian volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula: (1) last week's report of activity at Gorely appears to be semi-substantiated with new photos on the KVERT website (Russian). The images from June 6 and 12 (2010) shows steam plumes coming from the volcano - one as tall as 500 meters. Now, this doesn't imply that an eruption occurred, but it might suggest activity on on the upswing. KVERT continues to list the Alert Status at Gorely as "Green". (2) An eruption over the weekend at Shiveluch produced an explosive plume that reached 4.5 km / 15,000 feet. Over the last few days, the volcano has experienced over 150 earthquakes, but the activity is no threat to nearby villages or aviation over the peninsula. The status at Shiveluch remains at "Orange".
On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, there are some interesting tremors (Updated 6/21/2010: Nope, likely these "tremors" are just wind in the area of the webicorder - see the comments below) going on near Ngauruhoe in New Zealand. This fairly active volcano is part of the Taupo Volcano Zone and is located next door to Ruapehu near the famous Tongariro Crossing. Now, there is no indication on the New Zealand GeoNet website and the status is still "green", but it could be something to watch. Ngauruhoe last erupted in 1977 and had frequent eruptions in the middle of the 20th century. Ngauruhoe is really the youngest cone of Tongariro volcano - a cone that started forming only 2,500 years ago. The volcano tends to have strombolian explosions with basaltic andesite lava flows (see image above) ... and be sure to check out the Ngauruhoe webcam.
Over in the Philippines, government officials now have the deal with tourists visiting Mayon instead of Taal after they were warned to stay away from the latter volcano. However, dangers still exist at Mayon, where there are frequent rockfalls and small explosions - yet tour guides still bring people into the 6-km exclusion zone. Although the Alert Status at Mayon is at Level 1, the crater still glows red at night, reminding us that magma is still near the surface.
Finally, last year there was a lot of talk about the oil storage tanks near Redoubt in Alaska. This week, the Cook Inlet Regional Citizens Advisory Council heard a report on the storage tanks and whether the CIRCA did an appropriate job in planning for a volcanic eruption from the Alaskan volcano in regards to the potential spill from the tanks. More or less, it appears that the Council may have been complacent in the oversight of the facility - a common problem when it comes to planning for disasters.

{Hat tip to Eruptions readers M. Randolph Kruger and Bruce Stout for information used in this post.}

eklemetti Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:20

Which tremors for Ngauruhoe do you mean, it looks like it's only had two earthquakes in the last few months, is it the smaller tremours? http://www.geonet.org.nz/images/volcano/drums/ch/otvz/10/drum.png

http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/activity/ngauruhoe/index.html

This is great news, I've been waiting for this one to erupt for ages. Last year when I climbed it last year it only has steaming out a few fumaroles at the top at the side and inside the main crater nothing was steaming at all. NZ has been pretty boring of late, I wish something would happen there.

Greg: Be careful what you wish for, especially when talking about eruptions!

Thanks for the info about Mt. Ngauruhoe, Erik. I'll check the webcam when I'm not at work :-)
I did the Tongariro Crossing in 2000 and vividly remember the blue and green crater lakes up there.
As there are many tourists up there every day (at least in summer) I would not wish a sudden eruption or bursting crater lake rims...

I wonder if Ngauruhoe isn't just celebrating the "Victory" of the all whites against Italy yesterday. I guess a volcanic victory dance would be a bit tremorsome:)
And let me just say that for a swede Ngauruhoe is definitly on the list of un-pronouncable volcanic names. Give me something easy like EyjafjallajÃ¶kull any day!

Ngauruhoe is a very beautifull volcano, would look stunning with a nice strombolian eruption, especially since it dont have any ice-cap on top. Hope there are a lot of webcams around! One that up-dates every 30 minutes would be a bit disapointing. A live feed from a few angles and a FLIR for night-time would be good, microphones so one could put it on the speakers, and of course live helicorders so I could feed my finally finished actuating chair... Then it would just be to fire up the videoprojector and pop a beer:) Would beat the Football worldcup any day.

A question:
Is there anywhere one could get translations from the Indonesian volcanic centres updates? I've tried to look but haven't found any on their site. http://portal.vsi.esdm.go.id/joomla/

Would be nice to see if something is brewing there since they do have some of the nicer volcanos around.

Thank's in advance for the avalanche of help that I know will be coming from the knowledgeable pros here!

@Carl #5 Try using the Google Chrome web browser. You can get all sites translated to the language of your choice. It automatically detects the language and you may choose to which language you want the article translated. I would advise you to choose English - you know, as for Portuguese you may get very funny results. I tried the link you posted (thank you for that) in English and it worked fair enough. Of course it doesn't work for images.

On HvÃ³lsvÃ¶llur cam steam plume is visible now. Lady E is still giving signs of life.

#2 as long as lake Tapou or Auckland field doesn't erupt it will be ok. That Ngauruhoe climb really makes you fit lol. And the weather coming in and out and crampons at the top made it lots of fun too. Ruapehu's crater lake softly churning actually looked more creepy :P

not sure if intrested or not, but found this site not sure if its fake or not. National Association of radio-distress signalling and infocommunications,Emergency and Disaster information services {EDIS} havaria@rsoe.hu or zsolt.boszormenyi@rsoe.hu this site shows all the current volcanoes and earthquakes ect.

@ Greg (and all) - Ooops! I somehow forgot to add the link for the Ngauruhoe tremor. I've updated the post above and you can see the webicorder for Oturere (Ngauruhoe). Sorry about that.

Hi, what sort of tremors are they, harmonic?

Greg: well, I was thinking more about Taupo et al. Or Taranaki, which is statistically more likely to reawaken soon than either Taupo or Auckland. Re Ngaurohoe; I've got an interesting book ('Hot Water Country' by Ross Annabell) which has some lively anecdotes about it. Published in NZ, I think, so it's on your patch, I'd guess

Here's Thorvaldseyri's new website, the early 'farm under the volcano' - http://www.thorvaldseyri.is/ Wish there were an English version, but hey...

birdseyesUSA.comment13, It can be in english just click on union jack top left side of the page

Anyone else pondering what this cluster of eq's under Lady E might mean?

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/…

Though, admittedly they are very shallow.

@12 Would be nice if White Island fired up, apparently it's thrown rocks 50km to the mainland before lol

Greg 12: Is White Island still privately owned? (It certainly used to be). In which case lawyers would have a field day if it caused damage on the mainland LOL

Sorry, that should have been to Greg 16

@birdseye, #13, There is an english version of this page, and as far as I have seen, it contains all the info of the icelandic page.

@Laura from Canada [15]

Dunno, but here is how they look in profile. Quakes from 6/16 to 6/20.

http://i45.tinypic.com/34g3cow.png

Hi to all,

Birdseye @13,Hi I just checked out the Thorvaldseyri website.On the main page at top left there are Icelandic and English flags.Click on the English flag and it all becomes much clearer !
Laura @15.Curious little swarm that,and no real depth to any of them.Umm,we will see.

@14,19,21 ...and I just got new glasses ...sigh.....lol, thanks! ;

Not sure if it's anything, but a curious darker cloud is rising on the far left of the thoro cam... and someone just walked by snapping pictures.

And by far left, I of course me far right.... lol

Ngauruhoe is still fast asleep. Doesn'nt look like volcanic tremor at all. Climbed it last year, it could use a new eruption though, the slopes ar getting very eroded by all the people climbing it.

Guys,
I'm 99.9% certain that you're observing wind on the Ngauruhoe (...and other NZ volcano seismometers)! Remember it's winter now down there. If Nguaruhoe,..or any other volcano was producing the observed ground motion, bells and wistles would be ringing off their mounts. Seismometers don't just record volcano-genic stuff,...I've seen helicopter passes on the Ruapehu seismograph from time to time.

Rodger

@ Ber - Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of the noise on the webicorder. Any thoughts from the tremor-hounds out there?

Question: The last I looked Redoubt had been removed from the larger Holocene eruptions list, anyone know why? Here is a copy/paste from when it was there.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm

Name - Location - Date - Volcano Explosivity Index

CHAITEN Southern Chile 2008Â Â MayÂ 2Â VEI 4 OKMOK Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â JulÂ 12Â 4? KASATOCHI Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â AugÂ 7Â 4
REDOUBT Southwestern Alaska 2009Â Â MarÂ 22Â 4
SARYCHEV PEAK Kuril Islands 2009Â Â JunÂ 11Â 4

Didn't Redoubt erupt 16 times with plumes over 12 miles high, or am I mistaken?

Garry Hayes over at Geotripper has some lovely shots taken of Kiluea from the ocean-- empty lava tubes, pahoehoe and aa lava in unusual formations==

http://geotripper.blogspot.com/2010/06/where-i-wish-i-wasunique-view-of…

Hello Everyone,. :))

just wonderin if "EyafjatlajÃ¸kutl" has a new eruption, it seems like the plume has become a little darker and goes a little bit higher up than It has been the last days(weeks)??

btw a young customer at my store was just uber cute today and asked me if the volcano was still volcanoing on Iceland,. heheh. She was only 7 years.. aww I tought it was cute,.

@Thor,Hi,its a little hard to say at present;too much cloud,but there was quite a large plume earlier re Laura @23&24.

@Thor and Adrian, the recent eq swarms might point to something POTENTIALLY stirring, but alot of them were very shallow. I'm questioning though the lack thereof any real tremor movements. I'm pretty sure I saw a plume, but there was some cloud cover (and some very dark clouds) so it could have been that. Just thought that it was ironic that when I saw it, someone else ran by the camera snapping pictures. ;)

@Thor

I don't think anything is going on in the way of an eruption right now - but a flood might be in the program, and you can never bypass explosions as long as things are as hot as they are now. The greatest hazards now are, in my opinion;
1) renewed eruptive activity in the current crater with extremely violent interaction vith the water there
2) no eruption, but a breach of the crater rim releasing all the water trapped in the crater and the jÃ¶kullhlaup down GigjÃ¶kull following that

A nice approximation of the pronunciation of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, btw - although the Norwegian/Danish version of 'Ã¶' (Ã¸) might throw some people.

Ed 28: I think the Redoubt eruption plumes reached 12km, rather than 12 miles, which is a big difference! Also the VEI rating is calculated on more than just plume height; it certainly includes the total volume of lava/tephra produced in the eruption, and the 2009 eruption was no bigger than (or maybe slightly smaller than) the 1989 eruption in terms of volume..and that was a VEI 3

Kultsi :))

Hi,..

I was just checking on the Metrolocial pages
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
and there has been more activity,when it comes to shallow quakes then it has been for days/weeks,.
maybe its because of the ice/water melting and running into the crater and down the plumbings inside the mountain??

If you warm up mountain and then add cold water on it it cracks and breaks so maybe that makes the quakes??

anyways there is something going on up there,
and I agree with you

1) renewed eruptive activity in the current crater with extremely violent interaction vith the water there

2) no eruption, but a breach of the crater rim releasing all the water trapped in the crater and the jÃ¶kullhlaup down GigjÃ¶kull following that

These scenarios will both be diastrous, and extremely dangerous.

Remember that

EyjafjÃ¤ll, has had longtime eruptions that has had on /of breaks in between the eruptions, somtimes longer breaks and other where shorter..
if the water mixes with lava then things will sure become nasty for a while and quite explosive..

and Im sure the eruption on "EyjafjatlajÃ¶kutl" is not over,its just in another fase before starting up again..
and I wont be surpriced if another Volcano will erupt in the meantime, no im not sugesting Katla, that eruption might take some time before starting.. but will sure come with time..

birdseye @ 13, thanks for the link to farm photos. From that, I found a link to more Ejya. photos: http://www.nordicphotos.is/IS/search/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull The April 14 distance shot of the farm with ash and steam plumes behind it is one I'd be tempted to buy, but I don't see how to find prices. [ http://www.thorvaldseyri.is/skrar/image/Gos_i_Eyjafjallajokli/DSC08496… ]

Oops, this is the purchase site, but it's only in Icelandic, as far as I can tell. http://www.nordicphotos.is/IS/Details/6710791

@ Roger, 26

wind noise was what I thought of first too so I checked nearby seismograms to see if there was anything unusual but they looked normal to me (I check the geonet seismograms out everday) and, knowing the volanic plateau, high winds are more the norm than the exception, so this would mean a really exceptional storm to generate such a localized signal. On top of that, I haven't seen the graph look like this before in over, at a guess, two years of following it. That's why I mentioned it here.

OTOH Geonet haven't mentioned anything at all on their site or bumped up the volcano alert, so I guess you're right. There must be some extraneous source for the signal. Maybe they moved it or some tourists are having a party or something.

@Thor, @Adrian @Laura: Definitely there's a darker plume. Clouds are coming and going, but keep checking on ÃÃ³rÃ³lsfell and MÃºlakot cams. A pity that I must leave now.

http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2010/06/20/glacial-flood-in-south-icela…

Flood in Iceland.

Where is the seismograph in NZ, since when we climbed Mnt Doom it was Novemberish and there heaps of ice on it, so now there must be a lot of ice on that mountain. The weather really came in and out all the time and we had a few white outs. Yeah it's overdue for an eruption since before the 1970s it erupted pretty regularly. There is an old worn out sign up from NZ Geo about "toxic gas" inside the crater and not to climb in, I think it was stirring a bit in the last 10 years but has been really quiet and boring lately. So hopefully it wakes up, since it's erupts differently to it's giant neighbor.

@17 Yeah I think White Island is still private. Arises from the sulphur mining that used to occur there, until one day all the miners were gone :P

As Rodger says, I don't see any tremor at Ngauruhoe, only the usual mid-winter weather. It often looks like that on windy days. Sorry to disappoint!

@41 nooooooooooooooooo I want NZ to go active, so I don't have to fly across the planet to see active volcanoes :P

@ 41 mfs.. Thanks for the feedback. Just by chance, mfs, it sounds like you and Rodger know what you are talking about. Personally I would love to hear more about NZ's volcanoes if you are, um, closer to the source (perhaps not a very apt thing to say when I think about it) e.g. do you have any info about the small swarm under haroharo ? etc.

BTW, I'd still dispute the claim that it often looks like that on windy days. Raoul often looks like that, but as I mentioned above, just about every other day IS a windy day on Ngauruhoe and I honestly haven't seen it look like that before. I am not saying it is tremor (as otherwise Geonet would have issued a statement) just... well I guess I am just trying to save face by tripping over backwards. ;-)

Hi Bruce,

The gain settings (amplification) on each of the NZ volcanoes appears to be different (perhaps according to their levels of activity and also according to their sensitivity to wind, cultural noise, etc). I've watched them for a while as well. Since Ngauruhoe was showing some seismic activity the past few years, I take the GNS seismologists have that station running alittle "hot" so they don't miss anything. If you watch activity at Tongariro vs Ngauruhoe (which is actually a parasitic vent of Tongariro) you'll see what I mean. A good test of their sensitivity is to find a regional earthquake on all the seismograms, and then find out where it occurred in relation to each station. Typically, the regional event will be well recorded on the Ngauruhoe station and rather weak on the nearby Tongariro station (If the amplification of both stations were identical, a regional event should appear nearly identical in size and with similar waveforms).
If you want to see what tremor looks like at a NZ volcano, keep an eye on White Island. There is usually low level tremor there which ebbs and flows over time, sometimes grading into discrete low-frequency earthquakes,...saw that last month in fact!

Rodger

Thank you to everyone who helped clear up this Ngauruhoe webicorder noise observation - I've updated the post to reflect the consensus that it reflects wind in the area. Good to keep us on our toes, eh?

Bruce @ 43,
I might be closer than you but still pretty far (Tasmania). I spend a couple of weeks working in NZ most years and have been keeping a regular eye on Ngauruhoe since the earthquake swarm that happened a couple of years ago. I remember seeing very thick traces quite often in the past and it's always been attributed to weather. Just like Taranaki seismometers used to be near the North Egmont park entrance and showed road traffic noise regularly during opening hours.
If any new activity occurs, the Geonet website is usually pretty much on the ball and issuing alert bulletins at short notice.

I wouldn't be too concerned about that Gorely volcano. It sounds like a girly volcano to me.

Profile View of Eyj/Kat quakes 19th to 21st.

http://i50.tinypic.com/ncicqu.png

Zoomed in Plan View, same color codes for depth, Eyj only. Shows a good layout of the shallow quakes.

http://i45.tinypic.com/mq2k3.png

Ref my last [48], the 2nd graphic has a "Kat" label, ignore it. I forgot to yank it out when I slewed the graph to the plan view.

@49: Thanks, Bud!
Deep pressure continues from below.

Eyjaf eruption rolls along at low throttle. Surficial EQ from peripheral icecap melting and steam flashing with gas bumping.

And.. since I'm doing a slight hiatus from the Oilcano...

15 Minute Quake energy (all quakes from en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ site, updated to 22 June.

http://i47.tinypic.com/qoevrc.png

Mike @34 Hi, I'm big into the effect volcano eruptions have on weather intensity and cloud formation.

According to this write-up by Joe D'Aleo of http://icecap.us/ fame...

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=223

Redoubt blew over a dozen times to 60-65,000 ft plus and that calculates to 12+ miles.

I keep seeing other climate related data being altered or even hidden by certain agencies, won't go into that, but I'm just plenty curious. For example, much of the past raw Zurich solar cycle data at NASA now cannot be retrieved. Redoubt is suddenly missing from the Smithsonian Holocene list... like what's going on? I want to know. Thx

Love this blog btw!

@Ed Murphy[52]

Have you tried SIDC as an alternate source of Solar Cycle data? It's the Royal Observatory of Belgium and is sort of responsible for keeping a tally of some of that data.

sidc.be/index.php

Kp and AP indexes can be found here : www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/kp_ap.html

And, if you want to see something really stupid...

http://i49.tinypic.com/i39wlt.jpg

This is a plot of the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24. According to SIDC, the cycle began on 12/13/2007 when the first reversed polarity spot appeared. The red line is the monthly SSN of an average cycle (derived from the previous 23 cycles at that particular month in the cycle) and the yellow traces are 1 standard deviation above and below that value. Theoretically, 64% of the time whatever monthly SSN you happen to have should be between the two yellow curves. (standard deviation was also derived from previous 23 cycles)

Eh.. it's late. Sorry for the OT.

Has Mount Egmont had any tremours over recent time, that one is long overdue. Beautiful shape with the flat plane around it. And that volcano is out of line with all the others in the North island system

Thank you Erik for the kind words.....

Thank you for this webpage. Thats all I can say. You most definitely have made this blog into something speciel. You clearly know what you are doing, youve covered so many corners.thanks

Beautiful photos. Thank you for this writeup, I am a law assistant professor in Iowa and I found this to become really helpful.

Blessedly downhearted and rightful mad about Fox Intelligence

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Allezeit gelangen nagelneue Telefone auf den Marktplatz. Aber wie einwandfrei sind diese ?

Dauernd erscheinen nagelneue Telefone auf den Gebiet. Aber wie nÃ¼tzlich sind diese ?

StÃ¤ndig erscheinen erneuerte Mobiltelefone auf den Markt. Aber wie einwandfrei sind diese ?

I feel that is a fascinating point, it made me think a bit. Thank you for sparking my thinking cap. Now and again I am getting such a lot in a rut that I just really feel like a record.

I think that is an enchanting point, it made me assume a bit. Thank you for sparking my thinking cap. Now and again I get so much in a rut that I simply feel like a record.

Friday Flotsam: Plume images and a restless (?) North Korean volcano

eklemetti — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 06:08:35 +0000

Friday Flotsam: Plume images and a restless (?) North Korean volcano

This week went fast, didn't it?

The Baekdu caldera along the North Korean/Chinese border.

The NASA Earth Observatory have been giving us a steady diet of volcanic plumes over the last week, including PNG's Ulawun, Russia's Sarychev Peak (a very faint plume), both an ASTER and Terra image of the summit region at Kliuchevskoi and finally a mix of plume and clouds over PNG's Manam volcano.
I wanted to also mention a brief article I ran into on the Changbaishan/Baekdu caldera along the Chinese and North Korean border. Although short on specifics, this article mentions a number of interesting (and potentially odd/wrong) things: (1) Baekdu is showing signs of "becoming active" - this is the first I've heard of that, but the article does mention increased seismicity, inflation of 10 cm since 2002 and an increase in surface temperature; (2) the North Korean government is creating "comprehensive countermeasures" in case of an eruption - I have no idea what this means, it almost suggests they want to come up with ways to stop the eruption, which is ridiculous; (3) that the recent North Korean underground nuclear test might have had an effect on the magmatic system at Baekdu - and this strikes me as 100% pure speculation. The volcano has a caldera lake at the top, known to the Chinese as the "Lake of Heaven" and a Korean-speaking population living around the edifice. If Baekdu were to erupt, it would be a very large problem for North Korea's already teetering economy and government - the eruptions tends to be explosive with the last coming in 1903. However, Baekdu/Changbaishan did likely produce a VEI 7 eruption ~1000 A.D., meaning any activity at the volcano should be closely monitored (which could be difficult with its location on the Chinese-North Korean border).

eklemetti Fri, 06/18/2010 - 02:08

Off-topic: "Seventh Graders Find a Cave on Mars" http://www.physorg.com/news196003436.html
It appears to be a lava tube "skylight" of really big dimensions.

Hi Erik,

i just took a look on Google Earth at the Changbaishan/ Baekdu caldera.Its a monster,thats for sure. Could be another case for media speculation though?.

Wow,

Big smoke vent alongside the old lake on Thoro cam !

And there is at least one more "plume" to the right of that one !

Umm,im not so sure now,sorry(Gets back under his rock...)

Could Baekdu produce another minor eruption? Yeah, no question. Will it produce another monster eruption?

Not very likely.

'Comprehensive countermeasures' probably refers to evacuating the affected population, presuming there actually *are* emergency plans in place for an eruption response.

The North Koreans, true to form, have heavily deforested their side of the mountain, which has caused erosion and probably affords a more significant risk to the locals than danger from a large and aggressive eruption.

@Birgit, last thread, cool micrographs. I like the one with "7" on it, too. Another one I like a lot is the one that has all the holes in it filled with tiny "boulders".

I have a quick question for you. Did you have time to answer my questions on the thread where you posted your first pics? If you did, I missed it.

When I took EM, I liked the scanning EM the best. I had some fun with that one.

On the Thoro cam, I think I see a water fall to the right of Gig glacier. Can anyone confirm? It is a bit of a distance from it , but it sure looks like one. It could be just a ribbon of ice, but I think it is a water fall.

I have also noticed a different area of water coming into the river to the right also. Not much right now, but here is a channel there. Has it always been there and I just didn't see it, or is it a new feature?

OOPS! I was referring to the small ribbon to the right of Gig almost level with the spot of ice in the crevice, not the larger obvious water fall further to the right.

Hi Diane,

Yes,I concur with you there.The water flow (stream or larger) from the right has been there for about two weeks.The waterfall I first spotted two or three days ago.

Baekdu is in an odd location for a volcano..what's the explanation?

What does anyone make of the light at the back of the lake area on Thoro cam ? Just to the left of the main cleft/split.

an amateur here loving the blog.

completely OT as it's not a volcano but wouldn't it be cool :)

--
peel.

Great time for the Flir cam to still be down !

@ #12 I see it too, it's really weird? If it was lava would it not be more black and smouldering, rather than bright and fire like? Probably some simple explanation though? The picture quality doesnt help though, the constant refocusing of the camera really plays tricks with the eyes!
I'm no expert here, just an Eruptions blog addict watching/waiting for some new developments!

@15 Marginata,

Its been there pretty well all day.At first I thought that it was sunlight reflected off of a section of ice.Now im not so sure.The light is very poor now but the thing is that that area is pretty big in real life.

@#8-#10, #12, #15: Sorry, folks, I think you are seeing things that just aren't there.

The two white spots in the ThÃ³rÃ³lfsfell picture of the glacier are, as far as I can fathom, freshly-revealed, clean ice: a bit of the ice has collapsed there. I don't see any waterfalls, they would move, and there is no movement visible. (not counting steam, clouds, birds, cars and planes.)

@ Adrian
I havent been watching all day, but know exactly what you mean about the sunlight, it can really play tricks with the eye. The bright light is still visible though, even through the gloom and it must be quite big, given that cliff face is maybe a couple hundred feet high (maybe?). I also thought that there was a lot more water at the bottom of the glacier, but maybe that could be a trick of the light.
I'm totally intrigued does no one have any suggestions?

Gawd I hate getting distracted by wandering thoughts.

Baekdu is â75 miles from Nuke Test #2. Reportedly, this was stronger than test #1 about 3 years earlier... though no radionuclides were detected. This has led some (including me) to the possibility that it was a faked nuke. North Korea produces quite a bit of Ammonium Nitrate for use in farming. If you remember, there was a train disaster there a few years ago was most likely a batch of this stuff going up. In mining, explosive shots (ANFO) are fired in a sequence in order to direct the shock wave and get a better fracture of the rock. A side benefit is that this keeps the mining blasts from being mistaken as nuclear tests on the seismographs. Boring a hole and dumping one massive charge of ANFO down there it not something that I would count out... though there is no evidence that that happened. It's pure conjecture on my part.

Either way, the USGS measured whatever it was at about Mag 4.7

This leads me to the distraction.

On April 05, 2010, a mine disaster/explosion occurred in West Virginia. News debris from that event still pops up now and then. The high levels of noxious and explosive gases hampered rescue and recovery operations, and most recently the news spit out the hairball about there being a "crack" in the mine that was the likely source of gas. Okay... if they say so. One thing the "news" never elaborated on, or even mentioned was that on the day before the explosion, 09:19:14 UTC on April 04, there was a Mag 3.4 quake (38.599Â°N, 80.916Â°W) This is 58 miles from the mine incident.. and the (poorly constrained) depth was above the level that the miners were operating at.

I'm not saying that the quake caused the disaster, just that the equiv energy was about 125.9 tons of TNT, or 7,943 mJ. This is about 1/10th of Hiroshima blast. That was the amount of stress those coal seams and rocks were under... squeezing out the gas.

But.. that was not the distraction.

I did a Joule/mile comparison between the W VA mine and Quake, and the NK blast to Volcano distance. I'm not real sure about the energy dissipation of rock, but if you use a linear relationship, the volcano felt 68 times the energy that the mine felt from the VA Quake. If you use an R square relationship, it's 58 times the energy... pick whichever one you think is the best fit.

Either way, not a whole lot of energy got to the piping of the volcano.

Just found this at Physorg.com "Like fireflies, earthquakes may fire in synchrony" http://www.physorg.com/news196090397.html

Uhh, I commented on this here briefly. I also contacted and suggested to the Mine Owners that there may be more to the failure than meets the eye, in that the surficial quake (at near ground level) that occurred the day before had the potential to cause a fault rupture and discharge/vent gas into the mine at a much faster rate than could be removed, especially give the faulty ventilation system (for which the firm had been found in violation, several times).

I believe the cause of the quake (in a relatively low EQ probability setting) to be climate related, specifically, rainfall related. Of course, the company never responded.

Their loss, not mine.

Did the 'nuclear test' set off the volcano? I concur with your back-of-the-envelope estimates.

No.

What is probable, is that climate is playing a role in disturbance in the northern latitudes.

For a potential answer, we need to look at a trends that has been evaluated quite a few times by many reputable research groups.

A paper that addresses some of the result variability appeared in the journal Nature on May 20.

Robust warming of the global upper ocean. There is a figure in that paper that we want for purposes of our discussion here.

Figure 2: OHCA curves (upper ocean-heat content anomalies), 1993-2010.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v465/n7296/fig_tab/nature09043_F2…

Study this one carefully. Think about the patterns of activity in Iceland in the same time period.

I believe you have been party to our technical discussions on cause. I've discussed at length upper ocean heating and current transfer of that heat to air in the temperate coastal maritime environment of South Iceland, and its effect on glacier recession.

Our Eyjaf's glacier has been the most affected by glacier recession.

Now, the idea here is that this glacier thinning and outlet recession (very vivid photos have been posted here by others) has displaced many thouands of millions of tons of water from the icecap to the surrounding environment in the flood plains over a very short time period. It can and does exert a large force potential on a very dynamical force-couple and moment (horizontal plane pivot from the coastal land mass being sqeeeezed between expanding MAR relict limb and Reykjanes peninsula/WVZ interface) system that Eyjaf sits on, with respect to the SISZ and southern terminus of the EVZ/interplate region.

Thinning of the icecaps and rebound is one of several complex mechanisms in action here in the eruption of Eyjaf, and they have a common source.

Brought forward from earlier thread in the hopes that someone might be able to answer:

On the charts at

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/gps/predorb/theypred.html

will the upper-limit on the chart (specifically the North chart) be adjusted if inflation increases beyond +20? After staring at it for so long, this is the first time I've noticed the reading this high.

Thanks in advance.

Also, FWIW I too thought the white on the right of the Thoro cam was a waterfall for the past few days.

There have been two deep earthquakes in this are over the past few months. Both of them where at the depth of +500km or more (I don't remember).

It might well be that this volcano is becoming active. But don't count on North Korea telling you that it is.

@Princess Frito

Yes, the scale will be adjusted when needed; on the same page there's the vertical movement plot that's +/-60 millimeters, which, I'm sure, started with a smaller scale.

I found one large deep EQ back in February at the NK-China border, nearly 7.0 at 350 miles deep.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2010/eq_100218_swaf/neic_swaf_h.html

From the look of the historical seismicity maps, this isn't an uncommon occurrence in Jilin province (couple of ripsnorter mag 8s on the 1990-present map).

Thank you kindly Kultsi.

I did notice the different scale of +/-60 for the "Up" but (and my memory might be failing me) I don't ever remember seeing the upper limit of +20 for the North and East scales adjusted higher when readings got close to it but then I've never seen the top of the little black bars go beyond +20 until last night.

Thanks again for your response. I'll keep an eye on it :)

@Diane #8
"On the Thoro cam, I think I see a water fall to the right of Gig glacier. Can anyone confirm?"
I have noticed that too, earlier today, and now it's still quite visible.

Any comments on EQs and tremor plots under Eyjaf today?
Weel, guys, I must hit the bed now. Be back tomorrow!

A last look at ThÃ³ro cam and I notice a tiny eruption at the crater ...

Sorry. Looking better I can see these are cliffs behind the regular steaming that looked like lumps of tephra. Good night everyone!

Boy, you know you've hit the big time when the NYT's travel section recommends buying insurance against volcanic clouds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/travel/20prac.html?src=me&ref=travel

Wow, just back from a trip to southern Calif and there is so much catch-up to do here. Juicy material, thanks all! Incidentally, my host there felt the two recent desert quakes as gentle swaying but felt none of the aftershocks. Having grown up on the west coast, I experienced many smaller quakes and several big ones, including the Northridge quake in CA (as a kid) and Nisqually in WA. I also rode out the 1996 quake in the Kingdome, right after Edgar's home run. All this quake talk has me checking my earthquake insurance policy (I do have one). Calling my agent Monday to update my insured value. It's too low. Back to catching up...

Here is an oddity - Giant sinkholes appearing across china.

http://itn.co.uk/b7a2345bae65fa99ada8d962eec50f25.html

@Diane#7
Sorry Diane, i must have missed your question on the earlier thread. Could you ask again, please?

@ JulesP[33]

Odd. Any connection to massive aquifer usage? I know that they have an issue with water availability in some areas.

Shift the water table in the right geological settings and you get sinkholes.

Lurking
I know that some areas of China have had prolonged and severe drought conidtions over the last couple of years, especially mongolia, so your suggestion makes sense. They must have been tapping deep water reserves to keep irrigation and water supply going.

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/natural-disasters/katla-volcano-10x-100x-…

Katla could it be 100 times as big as the last one?

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/h…

Now there is a live link to watch the Oil Volcano in the gulf

hi me again just looking at Greg on the Bp oil spill on the live link that not good.Been looking through North Altantic logbook live journal by Michaelix,Can Jonkulhlaup debris cause undersea landslipes if Katla erupted.What are the odds on this? and if so do the governments know bout this?As media only pointed out ash risks fallout and Tempature fall on the climate for a year or so,But no mention this.

Off topic, but would be very interested in people's thoughts:

"L'Aquila, June 3 - Experts who told L'Aquila city officials there was no risk of an earthquake six days before last year's catastrophic quake are under investigation for gross negligent manslaughter, prosecutors said Tuesday."

http://www.lifeinitaly.com/content/prosecutors-probe-experts-who-said-l…

The gist of it seems to be that because the experts said that a series of small quakes didn't necessarily mean that a large one was on the way, that they are culpable for the fact that many people did not leave their houses six days later when the big quake struck, and are thus responsible for the death of 300 people.

That seems like a stretch to me. I've read a little bit about how it's possible to map stress shifting through well understood fault systems, as in Turkey, but not that it's possible to predict the timing of a quake. For less well understood systems (and I don't know how well understood this faultline was) it must be pretty hard to be able to say what's coming.

Reminds me of volcano prediction, where some people seem to expect scientists to magically produce a date and time of eruption.

What I worry about - in addition to the future that these scientists face - is the chilling effect it might well have on research in EQ/volcano prediction in Italy.

@40 Hi Suw! It strikes me that that sort of 'it's their fault' thinking also goes along with the idea that someone could 'do something' about Eyja's ashfall...serious lack of general public basic scientific knowledge about their own surroundings. Some people ready to capitalize on the 'opportunity' provided. Schools should teach not only science 'mechanisms' but realistic views of our only-too-human ability to predict anything. We are able gain inklings but not necessarily hard-and-fast truths.

RE (#37): The last two eruptions in Katla following eruptions in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull was rather small as far as I know. ;)

"Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera, Iceland"
http://www2.verk.hi.is/vhi/vatnaverkfrstofa/greinar/Probabilistic_model…

"Postglacial lava production in Iceland"
http://www-old.isor.is/~ah/dr/AH6_eruptions.pdf

"Volcanic hazards in Iceland"
http://www.almannavarnir.is/upload/files/Volcanic%20hazards%20in%20Icel…

i dont agree with any1 being charge for any natural event anywere in the world were human life has died we can not prevent or stop every think that can happen.If anythink maybe up scale the square radius to the earthquake area so includes a larger area maybe.im going to have to go with the experts on this one and Suw comment prosecutors should drop this all together

Whats going on with the tremor plots? Increased activity overnite....

RE (#37): The last two eruptions in Katla following eruptions in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull was rather small. ;)

"Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera, Iceland"
www2.verk.hi.is/vhi/vatnaverkfrstofa/greinar/Probabilistic_model.pdf

"Postglacial lava production in Iceland"
www-old.isor.is/~ah/dr/AH6_eruptions.pdf

"Volcanic hazards in Iceland"
www.almannavarnir.is/upload/files/Volcanic%20hazards%20in%20Iceland.pdf

Hello to all,

@43 Renee.Hi,I think that the I.M.O. have lowered the tremor amplitued on some of the Helicorders.Try this link,http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/eyja_trem_eruption.png.It really puts the recent activity (or lack of) into perspective.

@43 Renee.Profuse apologies,just checked the link I gave you to find that it is old.Try this one.http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

@ Adrian Thankx for the link I did compare and I realize that the activity we are seeing now is way down compared to before. I tend to watch the smaller daily changes right now and they are increasing almost a sine wave until todays activity which is the highest of late on the graph

@47 Renee,

Hi,yes,todays activity has been high and there has been a small rise in the number of Quakes in the vicinity.

@suw: local officials are seeking a legal scapegoat for blame. The hazard map is the tool they should have used, not simply checking views of geologists.

But more importantly, the level of damage sustained and loss of life reflect the degree of earthquake preparedness, especially in enforcement of building codes.

Historical seismicity 10-year map, USGS, for the quake.
neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2009/eq_090406_fcaf/neic_fcaf_h.html

Italy is one of the most earthquake prone nations in the world. The investigation is assinine and officials are making fools of themselves.

There is no shortage of geotechnical and civil engineering specialists who would back a counter-investigation, of civil authority culpability for failure to anticipate the eventuality of a damaging quake and lack of code enforcement to prevent loss of life and property damage, with aggravating factors in the underlying geology of the city that magnified risk disproportionately to the surrounding area.

From the wikipedia page:

'Earthquakes mark the history of L'Aquila, a city built on the bed of an ancient lake, providing a soil structure that *amplifies seismic waves*.

Second aggravating factor: \'According to firefighters and other rescuers, some concrete elements of the fallen buildings "seemed to have been made poorly, possibly with sand"'

Historical evidence of exceptional susceptibility:
The city was struck by earthquakes in 1315, 1349, 1452, 1501, 1646, 1703, and 1706. The earthquake of February 1703, which caused devastation across much of central Italy, largely destroyed the city and killed around 5,000 people.'

'The main earthquake was preceded by two smaller earthquakes the previous day.'

The crux of the issue is that small slip movements were hinting at accumulated stress that had not been relieved for hundreds of years in the complex fault system in this region.

It would be next to impossible to accurately forecast the date and time of fault rupture. Even if an accurate forecast were made, the nature of the sediment base is such that, even when people are out-of-doors, they may be subject to serious injury or death from falling debris, ground ruptures or landslides.

The geophysical community would be HAPPY to explain principles of liquifation physics and risk to local officials and prosecutors in terms even simpletons can comprehend.

The Italian experts under scrutiny need only reach out to their colleagues in Seattle for supportive testimony.

Birgit #34 I don't remember all of it, but here goes.

I was wondering what you coated the ash with to prevent charging. When I took EM, we were mostly using carbon arcs in the vacuum evaporator. I know things are way more advanced now than when I took the course to be a tech. We also used germanium and one other metal that I don't remember what it was. I also want to know if you were using secondary or another of the ways you can use to get the micrographs. When takeing EM we uses secondary and backscatter and we did some x-ray anaysis also. A friend of mine gave me a piece of metal for my rock & mineral collection and when I put it in the scope, it turned out to be strontium. That blew me away.

It has been a long time since I took EM and I never did get a job as a tech. I came close, but now I am glad in a way I didn't get one. The chemicals in the lab were not exactly what I needed to be around.

I have a funny story about what someone did at UC Berkely. There was a PhD person that wanted to look at a frog. He stuck the entire frog into the scanner and, well, you can imagine what happened then. What a mess that must have been!

The Cenapred webcam for Popo is showing steady steaming activity this morning.

http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/popo/UltimaImagenVolcanI.html

@35, 36 - On the Chinese sinkholes: not drought, but heavy rains, in karst areas with a notable history of mining activity.

Refereence: The formation of sinkholes in karst mining areas in China and some methods of prevention. Zhou Wanfang Environmental Geology May 1997. Second paper in March 1999, same title, with Li Gongyu, Engineering Geology vol 52.

The three factors identified by the author(s) in the formation of China sinkholes in these metals and coal mining areas are: the presence of caves in karst formations, thin overlying soil strata (highly permeable substrate), and recent water activity (flooding, suction).

Passerby #50. They ARE reaching out for support. Just look at some of the 4500 (and counting) signatories ( http://www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/archive.php ) to INGV's open letter/petition to the President of Italy ( http://www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ ).

In the meantime, why aren't we hearing more about this travesty from the rest of the world media?

@MJKBK, we are probably not hearing about it because it isn't important enough yet to the media. It isn't a disaster, you see. And right now most of the media stuff is either on the gulf oil disaster or the World Cup. I think it is so stupid to charge people for something they had no hand in. Some people are just not thinking here. It is the blame game again and I doubt they will listen to anybody. I hope I am wrong about that, but Italy is what it is: Burlisconiland.

@ Greg[38]

A wider link that gets you access to all of the bot video feeds is:

www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

My Fav are the Skandi Neptune ROVs. They provide a N: and E: coordinate set. It took a while to figure it out, but a friend and I puzzled over it and came to the conclusion that it reads in feet. The equator (according to Google Earth) is ROUGHLY 10419719.52 feet from the site. The site position was derived from a planning chart overlaid on Google Earth and the actual position is only as good as my eye/hand coordination. However, it was good enough to show that the N: value is probably reference to the Equator. The E: coordinate was more tricky. Underwater navigation is usually accomplished by setting up an acoustic array that is geo-referenced by the controlling unit. Best I could figure, this was somewhere around 92Â° West Longitude. This makes sense, since that cuts roughly though the middle of active oil field region of the GOM. It still adds a lot of ambiguity for the casual observer when trying to figure out where the Bots are at on the seafloor.

With patience comes rewards. I caught one of Skandi Neptune's ROV's in the handling bay on the ship being hosed down and looked at. At that moment in time, MarineTraffic.com showed Skandi Neptune at 28.738770Â° -88.368900Â°. Bingo. A second fix that logically fit with a previous ROV/Skandi Neptune observation. The coordinates from Marinetraffic are the ones that come in via an automatic system that the ship's nav system broadcasts.

So.. with that, and working out the coordinates using an Earth Radius of 20855487.84 feet... (converted from Wikipedia) I was able to put this chart together:

Enjoy.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2i76ydd.png

Indeed, we're thinking of a more direct approach: frontal assault.

Additional perspective of the issues is warranted here.

Excellent seismic perspective, in a recent article with risk evaluation: 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake (Central Italy): an InSAR source mechanism and implications for seismic hazard.
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL039337.shtml
www.earth.ox.ac.uk/~richardw/laquila/

A tiny fraction of the existing structures in Italy meet Eurozone requirements for earthquake proofing. Italy does not require retrofitting of existing structures to code, even when modification permits for structural upgrades are made. There are issues of substantial cost and legal requirements to meet 'code' in new versus updating existing structures.

Low-cost, innovative partial-retrofit measures that afford baseline protection from seismic shock are needed, in Italy and elsewhere.

'After a reassessment of this complex geology three years ago, LâAquilaâs seismic danger was upgraded from moderate to severe'.

Not quite enough time to upgrade building code and make structural modifications to newer buildings, but more than enough evidence that *ample* expert warming* was given of heightened seismic risk to LâAquila before the earthquake.

www.earthmagazine.org/earth/article/23a-7d9-7-e

There is also recent evidence that the risk of another moderate rupture in historic building settings (very old cities) in adjacent fault systems remains significant and is therefore of substantial concern.

It is more than possible to turn the accusatory tables on prosecutors and serve the public at the same time, by highlighting these results and emphasizing 'geotechnical lessons learned' with 'further risk-reduction needed, now, now, now!'.

L'Aquila anniversary highlights need for better buildings. May 6, 2010.
www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/1005/10050602

INGV has not been sitting on their backsides, but working hard on better risk communication tools. Touche!

Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. (2010) Geophysical Res Lett 37: L06306, doi:10.1029/2009GL042352

'Earthquakes cluster strongly in space and time, leading to periods of increased seismic hazard. During such seismic crises, seismologists typically convey their knowledge of earthquake clustering based on past experience, basic statistics and âgut feeling.â However, this information is often not quantitative nor reproducible and difficult for decision-makers to digest. We define a novel interdisciplinary approach that combines probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment with cost-benefit analysis to allow objective risk-based decision-making.'

www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL042352.shtml

Strong foreshock signal preceding the L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake of April 6, 2009. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 19â24, 2010
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/19/2010

Foreshock seismic signal series from October 2008 to the time of rupture may be useful as a risk diagnostic tool.

Another:

A group of collaborators (Russian-Austrian-Italian) have investigated VLF precusors to this rupture and demonstrated a diagnostic tool for forecasting earthquakes. This is not exactly new science with approximately a decade of previous publications in print (and we introduced the concept here by showing HAARP Rio signal match against Icelandic miniquake swarm energy intensity), but maybe useful to INGV in the future if it can be used, with the foreshock series and advanced communication tools, to refine elevated occurrence risk windows.

europlanet-jra3.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/presentations/11_VLF_signal_precursor_Molchanov.pdf

http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100619/159491100.html

Russian volcano no threat to planes

The problem is that quake prognostication is difficult if you have a bunch of lawyers standing around ready to whack you with a lawsuit if you even try to hazard a guess. I'd much rather hear that something is up with a fault line from a Geologist rather than a tarot card reader.

If the Geologist is wrong, he looses reputation. If the tarot card reader is wrong, they make an excuse and another prediction.

#51 Diane
Nothing. I used a FEI Phenom http://www.fei.com/products/scanning-electron-microscopes/phenom.aspx
and fortunately the samples did not really get charged too much which is probably due to the chemistry of the ash itself. When you look at the ash under a normal mikroscope you can easily see that there are very different particles. They look like what Erik showed us in an earlier thread. In some of the samples i would say, 50% is volcanic glass but the ash seems to be magnetic and it is not easy to spread it out thin enough to get good pictures. WHen i do SEM images on pollen or insects, i often have a problem with the charging of the samples.
The SEM, i used, belongs to a Museum, the Ars Electronica Center in Linz Austria We have different Labs there ( RoboLab robots etc FabLab fabrication lab with a lasercutter and a 3D printer, BrainLab with a visucam where you can have a photo of your retina taken and email it home and a BioLab where we are cloning plants or do gene sequencing in workshops with our visitors. ) When i did the SEMs i did them with the vistors watching me and deciding onto which particle we should take a closer look. I did study pharmacy, so i have been working in chemical labratories but i am no tech but an Infotrainer, a person who does guided tours. The museum is trying, what we call an open lab situation, so visitors can get to see things which are normally not accessible to them or shown in tv shows like CSI.
Sorry that was completely OT

Oh and something else. In case someone here has ash from other volcanoes and would like scanning electron images done on it. Just send a sample ( very little is necesary for a SEM) We could compare it with the ash from Eyjafjalla.

@ Birgit [60]

I went back digging though the posts in the other thread to try and find the link to the images, could you please repost them?

---
OT: Rigzone posted a somewhat glitzy article about a heavy vessel (27,270 metric tonnes) that will be joining the spill effort. "the sheer mass of this unique vessel means it is perfectly suited to handle this type of large clean up."

It sounded impressive, I just had to get look at a picture of this vessel, the "Mighty Servant 3." The first one I found did not instill confidence.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2ni2kvt.gif

It seems the thing sank itself about 4 years ago and has since been recovered and repaired.

Sorry for the OT... this thing keeps nagging at me.

@Lurking [61]
You mean these http://www.flickr.com/photos/arselectronicacenter/

Erik, I ran across the Korea Times article when it was six hours old and posted the salient information here plus a link to the (then) only publicly available paper on it, concerning inflation prior to c2002. Since you were preoccupied with end-of-term work at the time, you are forgiven for not paying due attention. ;) ;)

Looks like the obstruction higher up on GigjÃ¶kull has given up and the warm water is now flowing much farther - and is apparently dammed again.

@Kultsi 64 Good morning - I think that the dark area is vegetation - it never reflects, and in the afternoon you can see little silver streams cutting through it- but the lowest part of the glacier has had its face washed of a lot of ash, yesterday afternoon it looked almost shiny.

@Kultsi - on re-reading, I think you must have been able to see the glacier higher up this morning - It has been cloudy since I have seen it, so I don't know what you were looking at earlier- sorry - but I think if there had been a break in the ice wall, the force of the water would have carried all the way down?

@Birdseye (#65-66) - I was looking at steam emissions at the upper slope of the glacier. I haven't seen any increased water flow from the glacier and that's why I think it's dammed up there somewhere.

The rain has, indeed, washed the glacier face and the collapses here and there show almost pristine ice faces shining in white.

A glacier flood has started in the glacier river SkaftÃ¡r, they flood is called SkaftÃ¡rhaup and they happen regularly. Last flood there was in the year 2008. Follow this type of flooding there are usually a large spikes of harmonic tremor coming from the volcano area where flood comes from. This year won't be any different. In rare cases there might even be a eruption there.

Icelandic news on this flood.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/skaftarhlaup-er-hafid (Translate with Google at your own risk!)

On SEM, clearing up more misconceptions.

This Eyjaf ash is clearly HIGHLY conductive and carries quite a surface charge. We had several discussions on this interesting aspect, from the perspective of chemical composition but also a proposed charging mechanism and observation of retention of charge/recharging at distance.

Our sample is also known to be enriched in higher atomic number atoms, so the two conditions necessary to run the sample as is rather than coated, are met. Hence, no need to coat the ash sample. The ash samples could be mixed with epoxy and thin-sectioned to yield additional information on particle size and composition. This technique was demonstrated and used for analysis of Mt Redoubt ash from the 1989 eruption.

www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/MethodAshCharacter.pdf

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scanning_electron_microscope#Sample_preparation

On to Lurking's comment.

Mighty Servant 3 was completely rebuilt after salvage recovery. Very common operation, although the ship type is unique. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mighty_Servant_3

Q: Why are they using one of the largest semi-submersible heavy-lift vessels in the world at the Deepwater Horizons oil recovery site?

A: They have to lift something very, very heavy. Like maybe the 450-ton blowout-preventer.

Q: Why might they be lifting the BOP? We thought it was there to put pressure on the wellhead to slow down the leak rate?

A: Conditions down below are a little more complex than we thought.

If you want to worry about what is happening in the Mexican Gulf, read this.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

In the US Congressional hearings with BP corporate heads earlier this week, a question was asked about the integrity of the casing below the seabed floor. The response was frank but foggy: they didn't know the condition of the wellhead casing because they weren't able to test it and can't see into the well to examine it.

What we do know is that BP has given up trying to plug the flow of oil and appears to have reversed course, possibly to relieve pressure on the thin and poorly consolidated seabed floor around the wellhead.

If this layer caves in and BOP falls over, the rupture will be...a worst case scenario. Since the BOP doesn't rest on the seabed, it's being held up by the pipe and casing. The pipe is thin and apparently, the BOP is starting to list.

So, you would want to bring in heavy lifting gear, I suppose, to support it while you figure out what you're going to do next.

scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/06/worst_case_scenario_on_gulf_sp.php

www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

Remember, all of the facts aren't known and The Drum Beat reader report is 'knowledgeable conjecture'.

As bad as the Gulf spill is, the situation in Nigeria is now and has been dreadful.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-de…

@Birgit #59 thanks for the info. I had not idea there was even such a scope out there. Things have progressed so far from when I took EM. It was not an easy course. It took me four years to do a supposedly two year course of study. I have a two year degree and certificate as an EM/SEM tech. Used both scanning and transmission scopes. Ancient ones at that. The college now has an entire building dedicated to EM study instead of just a lab. I want to get in there and see what they have some day. I know they now have a microprobe which does a better job of xray analysis. One of the things I had to do was a quantitative analysis of Hexel hip joint material. Now that was 30 years ago so I know hip replacement parts are far different now.

BTW, I also had to be able to describe what the electron beam was doing when it was going down the column of the scopes. The ones we were using make the one you are using look like a simple OLM. :-)

Sounds like you work in a neat enviornment. I do know where I can get some ash from areas in CA so I will be sending you a sample when I can get to the area. Right now it is most likely under snow and the road is closed.

Sorry for the OT for the rest of you, but when it comes to microscopes, I get going. LOL One of my dreams was to be able to use an electron microscope and I was able to do it so I am happy. I would love to have one of those things you use, Birgit. I used to say I would like to have a trailer with "Have scope, will travel" on the side. LOL

@stigger[70]

The article seems to want to piggyback on the hype of the GOM event. Let's compare the two.

From the article:

'The government's national oil spill detection and response agency (Nosdra) says that between 1976 and 1996 alone, more than 2.4m barrels contaminated the environment.'

At 60,000 bbl/day the GOM event far outpaces that. 2.4 million barrels over a 20 year period (7305 days) is about 274 barrels/day. The GOM event passed 2.4 million barrels back around the 1st of June... and that took about 40 days.

On a lighter side... Crude oil averages a carbon content of about 85%. Living tissue averages a carbon content of about 18.5%.

At a flow rate of 60,000 bbl/day (2.5 million gallons/day) and at an average mass of 25 tons (short) for a Sauropod (Brontosaurus)... that's about 72 Sauropods per minute coming out of that hole... 4321 dinosaurs/day.

Sort of adds weight to that abiotic oil idea.

@Passerby[69]

Thanks for that link. Lengthy read but worth the trouble. It also explains this screen cap from 3 June 2010... it's an inclinometer affixed to the BOP:

http://i45.tinypic.com/2exy9za.png

Lunatic press seems to be of the opinion that the "sinkhole" will expose millions of gallons of water to "400Â°," flash to steam and cause a tsunami wiping out the Gulf Coast. All I can say is "so?" At 1000 psi the boiling point of water is 285Â°C (545Â°F) and the hydrostatic pressure at the BOP is what? 2226 psi? Good luck with that scenario.

No, the more plausible horror story is the opening up of the borehole to the ocean. I can find nothing factually wrong with the information in that article. I think that scenario is what's been eating at me. The stressful part of it is that there isn't a [expletive deleted] thing that I can do about it... let alone any body else.

*sigh...

@ lurking. Way back when I was in college, one of my professors was a founder of the zero population growth group. I remember asking him how he could keep working given what we knew then about the not-so-great-future. He said "You grieve, and then you fight on". My condolences.

@Kultsi, Askola, FI

Thank you for the SEM link.

Any one know how they (the 'not us' people) determine what the clasts are composed of?

Good evening everyone!
Someone look at HvÃ³lsvÃ³llÃ¼r cam. I think there's a plume rising above the clouds... (Toggle full screen mode)

#72: Thank you for the comparison. My point is that whilst the GOM is bad, people are taking action. Nigeria has lived with oil pollution since 1976 caused by Exxon and Shell (amongst others) but it is still happening and little action has been taken against them. That is wrong.

BP and the unmitigated disaster
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2010/06/bp-and-unmitigated-disaster…

@stigger [76]

I agree that it's wrong, but technically... what their corrupt government arranges with the oil companies is between them and their government. The Great Lakes Brewing Company of Cleveland, Ohio reportedly named their Burning River Pale Ale after the Cuyahoga River. It seems to have a habit of catching on fire... some estimates place it at 13 different fires since 1868. I don't expect the people of Nigeria to come over here and fix it for us or to do anything about it. When I was growing up in Central MS, there were areas of marsh that bubbled up ... "stuff" with the consistency of rubber. Again, I didn't expect some other country to come rescue me.

Bad? Yes, I do agree with that. But again, a corrupt government allows it to happen unfettered.

Back to Passerby. Later in that thread there is a set of two images that show what appear to be puffs of oil from the seafloor. Based on that Bot coord transformation thing I figured out (which could be wrong), it maps to a position 40 feet from the LMRP.

http://i47.tinypic.com/20fovbp.png

Lurking, I suppose my primary concern at the moment would be the consequences of applying dispersant directly into the spill flow at depth.

This is A Very Bad Idea for several reasons, the foremost being that the nonsolubilized plume components ('heavy ends', large polycyclic compounds) are will hover at low oxygen, low light levels and eventually sink.

This would explain the formation of the odd, murky subsurface plumes. The solubilized stuff is forming thin-film 'oil-sheen' surface plumes that will continue to thin fully disperse and biodegrade with wave-mixing action in the weeks-to-months ahead.

No such luck for the heavy residuals. The oil plage will slowly sink to the bottom, covering vast areas of the cold anoxic depths with a stiffly amorphous sludgy mass.

Out of sight, out of mind is the game being played here.

I went back to The Oil Drum website to look for telltale comments from BP that may indicate the corporate engineers knew they were facing bad news.

May 29th summary post:

'He (Suttles) noted that their inability to stop the well âscares everybodyâ but is reasonably confident (no success percentage estimates) that this (Lower Marine Riser Package) will collect the majority of the oil and gas.

Because they do not know the flow path of the oil below the seabed, it is difficult to estimate what is actually going on in terms of oil path below the BOP. Thus they are, again, trying something that has never been done before, but expect, based on the RIT, that it will work.'

'On being asked about the cleanup of the dispersed oil â he pointed out that the reason that the dispersant was used was to break the oil into small droplets. These are small enough to be consumed by the microbes in the sea, and thus there is no plan to do other than let nature take its course. For the oil on the surface, they are getting better at spotting oil pools and sending skimmers to deal with them. '

Huh? The BBC News website has a map graphic series showing the progression of the oil plume. Last two frames look they are reversed - bit confusing, since the LMRP would be gaining in recovery efficiency with 'tune-up' over time.

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10309001.stm

@Passerby[80]

Humor is where you find it.

While doing my best to dig up data on the amount of spume that is lofted at various wind speeds, all I could find (so far) is information on the enthalpy issues... heat transfer to and from the low lying strata of hurricanes. In these papers, the idea of surface tension came up, having a heavy influence on spume formation. With that thought, I began following lines of info on surface tension modifiers... surfactants came up. Surfactants are commonly used in dispersive agents. How this will affect storm formation/efficiency is beyond me. I'm just a data monkey rooting around in what I can find, playing with the dots.

But I also revisited the Wiki page on Corexit, the dispersion agent being used by BP. Both varieties have unspecified sulfonic acid salts, but now the Wiki page has been updated to state:

"An organic sulfonic acid salt is a synthetic chemical detergent, that acts as a surfactant to emulsify oil and allow its dispersion into water. The identity of the sulfonic acid salt used in both forms of Corexit was disclosed to the EPA in June 2010, as dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate."

And looking that up I find:

"...an anionic surfactant and a common ingredient in consumer products, especially laxatives of the stool softener type."

Um... how appropriate.

There appears to be some pretty sustained tremor going on at Ngauruhoe in NZ (probably just got excited about the world cup):

http://www.geonet.org.nz/images/volcano/drums/ch/otvz/10/drum.png

AOT structure:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dioctyl_sodium_sulfosuccinate

Too big to fit in enzyme binding sites (fortunately), because it has 'steric inhibition' written all over it, from a structure-activity standpoint. Sure enough, early biochemical studies show protein degradation (trypsin degradation of casein milk fats, for example) is blocked by AOT irreversibly.

Toxicity chitchat
www.inchem.org/documents/jecfa/jecmono/v28je16.htm

We want section 2.2.5 Special Studies, and 2.2.6 Laxative Effects.

The section on pulmonary edema indicates that the surfactant altered the air-water cell membrane at aveolar-vascular interface (probably affecting ion channel and porin water channel function).

May explain the respiratory distress reported by cleanup workers, although it could have arisen from hydrocarbon fumes, too. Do not think it was the ethyl glycol monomer, because the AOT surfactant concentration was much higher than the stabilizer (predominantly nephrotoxic effects for the former) in the Corexit formulation.

*Real* interesting to find it reported in bile, as AOT was reportedly efficiently metabolized in rat liver.

I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting. Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, I studied surfactant-enhanced bioremediation of oil components.

Anionic surfactants, at the concentrations needed to efficiently disperse and solublize waxy alkanes and highlyh insoluble polycyclic hydrocarbons, were not kind to naturally occurring oil degraders in fresh- and saltwater treatment systems.

#69 Passersby, I have deliberately been trying to avoid the goings on in the Gulf of Mexico because the environmental, social and financial disaster that this has turned into is causing pain that I don't want to expose myself to unless I can do something about it; which I can't. I decided to read your link to the oildrum.com however as the grandstanding politicians, and the apparently less than open oil companies are becoming unavoidable on the news here.

I think that there is a need to explore these hydrocarbon bearing areas,as I see no sign that the move to a post oil world is going to be a quick one. It can also be expected that activities which are really pushing the envelope are going to run into difficulties from time to time. However to find that these operations were being subject to "cost savings" on a well which was apparently in serious difficulties is just ludicrous and negates any sympathy I had for BP at the hands of the US politicians.

The local press in Aberdeen "Oil capital of Europe" is staying very quiet on the subject, and while the US, Brazil, and Norway have all halted progress on deep drilling meantime, the UK government is still gung-ho about prospective deepwater drilling in the Shetland Basin.

I could go on, but this is more than enough for a rant.

@Passerby

"I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting."

Agreed. The humor is a dry one. It's a sort of "laugh or else cry" ifelse statement.

@Gordon

I'm not too happy with Oildrum. Lots of load this load that stuff going on in the browser. That or it's the four simultaneous Oil-Cam-Bots I have running.

I think I'm going nuts.

Mt Hood creaking again....worth keeping a note of

Beautiful view on the thoro cam now.
(22.25 Icelandis time)

If you perused The Oil Drum, you must have come across two 'must read' posts:

Waiting for the Millennium, Parts I and II.

Read them if you want to be *really, really* depressed.

@ Steve
Yes it is isn't it.
There is a long way to go before we see an eruption, if there is one.... but you never know.

Questions for Hekla

Hekla over recent time has erupted every 10 years or so. Are there any signs that it will erupt soon again, or did it not give much seimic warnings last time?

Last time there was a small pyroclastic flow. What is the significance of this.

@90: See Eruption history, on the wiki-webpage on Hekla regarding the most recent reports of magma chamber pressure. Hekla is said not to give much notice of an impending eruption. On the meaning of finding evidence of a pyroclastic flow in the last eruption, see

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hekla#2000

I now what a pyroclastic flow is, question is is it changing?

You didn't read the text, did you?

'Up until this eruption, it had always been assumed *that Hekla was incapable of producing the most dangerous of volcanic phenomena, the pyroclastic flow*.

----> This will call for a reappraisal of volcanic eruptions of the basic rock type, which up to now were generally thought not to produce large pyroclastic flows.

----> It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks.

How can you tell if anything is changing if it has only occurred once?

Ok, I don't usually read wikipedia anyone can write that :P

Well if it's occured once, maybe the system is changing?

Aww, come on Wikipedia is fine as long at you verify the info. It's good as a quick reference, especially if the sources are cited.

If you move to the political info, caveat emptor applies.

@Nick #90 and following. The pyroclastic flow at Hekla in 2000 was probably not the only one ever recorded at this volcano - there was nearly certainly one at the start of the 1947 eruption and again, during the first few minutes of the 1980 eruption. My bet is that these pyroclastic flows are generated by explosive interaction of magma (or rapidly flowing lava) and thick snow and ice, because such things have been observed at a number of other volcanoes such as Etna, Llaima, Kliuchevskoi and Pavlof. Possibly some small pyroclastic flows were generated earlier this year at EyjafjallajÃ¶kull during its first basaltic eruptive phase, when lava cascaded over snow-covered cliffs.

By the way, I am convinced that pretty much every volcano is capable of producing pyroclastic flows. At Etna we know of eight or nine cases in the past 30 years where small pyroclastic flows were produced, some by the collapse of an eruptive column, some by interaction of lava with snow or wet rocks, and one by the collapse of a sort of a lava dome. Kilauea is known to have produced dilute pyroclastic flows (base surges) most recently during an explosive eruption in about 1790. So I would refrain from saying that a volcano is incapable of producing pyroclastic flows ... maybe we should rather speak in terms of a volcano being unlikely to produce major pyroclastic flows unless there are significant changes in its plumbing system (as at Etna, where large pyroclastic flows occurred about 15,000 years ago when its magma was more evolved and gas-rich).

he he I was just kidding about Wikipedia. Thanks for the info guys :)

Yes Boris, GVP Hekla webpage list of eruptions does indeed list pyroclastic flows for the 1980 and 1947 eruptions.

www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-07=&volpage=erupt

Nice little article on the 2000 Hekla eruption that explains the mechanics of the initial phase that resulted in pyroclastic flows: column collapse following early explosive eruption, a function of magma water and silicic acid content, and probably tightly related to repose duration (result of previous publications evaluating older, plinian eruptions at Hekla - a familiar theme of theolitic primordial crust reworking and mixing, but with a twist - feedforward strain from the SISZ).

If one wants to know the hints of pending eruption at Hekla, look for:

sudden jump in thermal and SO2 emissions in air and groundwater are useful for fine-tuning eruption probability to a 1-2 day window; larger eruption window probability can be deduced from a drop in geothermal and hot springs elevation and in the nearby lake level and correlations with warm, dry seasons during the same time period (1-2 years in advance of a central fissure eruption).

SISZ activity is, as on the Tjornes Transform Fault system, associated with a sudden jump in deep fissure pore pressure from liquid injection at depth. Look for a similarity in general timing in the pressurization of the magma reservoir under Hekla.

Hekla dances to a different piper than the EVZ.

Lovely and insightful paper, crafted by a talented group of Iceland's finest, on the subject of the Hekla eruption of 1980-81, open access on the 'Net. Read it.

The millennium eruption of Hekla in February 2000. (2007, Karl Gronvold and friends)
www.springerlink.com/content/p25157781v031261/

The Hekla Eruption of 1980-81.
www.lsndocuments.info/Documents/wp0056.pdf

Hybrid magma generation preceding Plinian silicic eruptions at Hekla, Iceland. (2007)
geolmag.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/144/4/643

Seismic activity related to the 2000 eruption of the Hekla volcano, Iceland. (2005, Pall Einarsson and friends)
www.springerlink.com/content/j58611614567716u/

I would love to visit this volcano at least one in my lifetime. I have heard a lot about it and I wanna see it live from my eyes.
http://healthproductadvice.com/acai-max-cleanse/

KVERT has posted some more images of Klyuchevskoy(Kliuchevskoi, Ð²ÑÐ»ÐºÐ°Ð½Ð° ÐÐ»ÑÑÐµÐ²ÑÐºÐ¾Ð¹ ) at http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/current/klch/index.html

Steam plume visible on MÃºla and Thoro cams.
Another EQ near EyjafÃ¶ll:
Saturday 26.06.201018:51:4663.741-19.5511.1 km2.790.017.9 km NNW of BÃ¡sar

@103Renato,Hi,

Not as much activity as last night.Btw,you're on the wrong thread.Everybody else seems to be on the Mystery Volcano Thread.

Definately the best blog post I've read today. Just an FYI, my Motorola Cliq shows this page great in it's browser.

Pitty i discovered your site too late!

Excellent read, I added your feed to my RSS Reader http://www.acaimaxcleansereview.com

What youre saying is totally true. I know that everybody should say the same factor, but I just believe that you place it inside a way that everyone can comprehend. I also adore the images you put in here. They match so well with what youre attempting to say.

I know you meant your entry to be humorous, but the toxic info turned out to be kinda interesting. Long ago, in a galaxy far far away, I studied surfactant-enhanced bioremediation of oil component http://acaimaxcleansecanada.org/

Hello.This post was extremely motivating, particularly since I was investigating for thoughts on this issue last week.

It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for 6/2-8/2010

eklemetti — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 13:41:05 +0000

GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for 6/2-8/2010

The latest update from the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program!

Highlights (not including Taal, EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and Bezymianny) include:

Another thermal anomaly was spotted on an Kuril Island volcano - this one being Tiatia. The volcano has no seismic monitoring network, so the thermal anomaly is all that has been observed.
Lava flows and strombolian explosions continue at Guatemala's Pacaya. Some of the explosions have launched bombs hundreds of meters into the air.
Kliuchevskoi was another busy Russian volcano, with a large thermal anomaly and ash explosions that produced a plume at least 7.3 km (24,000 feet) tall.
Mexico's PopocatÃ©petl produced one of the larger explosions it has experienced over the last year on June 8, producing an ash plume that reached 8 km (27,600 feet).

eklemetti Wed, 06/09/2010 - 09:41

IMo forecast for EyjafjallajÃ¶kull (Translated by Google Translator)
High precipitation forecast and risk aurflÃ³Ã°um - recorded at 09.06.2010. 17:10
The night is predicted up to 40 mm of precipitation EyjafjallajÃ¶kull. It is expected that most of rain during the period between at. 5 and 9 in the morning. Under these conditions the risk of ash and the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull can crawl down the channels and rivers that flow south from the hills. This is mainly for SvaÃ°bÃ¦lisÃ¡, washed and KaldaklifsÃ¡ but also by such floods can come down HoltsÃ¡, MiÃ°skÃ¡laÃ¡ and Ira.

Images of Popo:
http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/cgi-bin/popo/album/ult.cgi

So, picking up a subject from the Mt. Baker posting, what is the name of the volcano in the background of the HAARP photo in the wikepedia article?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HAARP_site.jpg

# @Doug McL - I had to do some research on this, but my guess goes to Mt. Sanford, but let's wait and see what are others' guesses. :)

6.0 EQ at vatunato 4 minutes ago

sorry Vanuato no tsunami warnings as of yet

I think this is only preventive. Remember it is been monitored since only a few months ago:

http://www.onemi.cl/html/noticias/noticia_561.html

@Renato - you're right this is Mt. Sanford (in the upper left of the HAARP image). Sanford is part of the Wrangell volcanic belt in eastern Alaska a few hundred km northeast of Anchorage. It is a large, hulking shield volcano apparently made mostly of andesite and dacite - similar to those of the stratovolcanoes in the Aleutians or the Cascades despite its shield morphology. On the right horizon is Mt. Wrangell, yet another unusual andesitic shield.

MAP 6.0 2010/06/09 23:23:19 -18.586 169.471 17.8 VANUATU
I am no expert, but i have noticed that when there is a large earthquake in Vanuatu there is a large one on the west coast.. so this i a test and a log so we all can see if there is a conection.. OK

SHANE..

Sorry,, (west coast of south or north america...

So, what's this I'm reading that ChaitÃ©n in Chile erupted violently only 320 years ago (according to Luis Lara of SernageomÃn)? Whatever happened to "dormant for 9000 years"? A bit of an oopsie there, I guess.

#5 @renee Thanks for the info, but remember this blog has a time lag of circa -4 hours to UTC.

#3 @Doug #8 Thanks for posting the quiz. It was amusing to look for the answer and I learned a lot about volcanoes in Alaska (my knowledge didn't go beyond Redoubt, Novarupta, Cleveland and two or three others.) Keep more coming!! :)

#11 @mjkbk - Yes, it's true. The link to the information has been posted before by Guillermo. ChaitÃ©n has been upgraded to one of the 15 more dangerous volcanoes... from Chile! (Thanks again Guillermo!)

Hello to All,

Interesting upswing on all 5 Helicorders and increased activity on Jon Frimmans.

@ Adrian very interesting indeed...lets wait and see.

See @43 from yesterday's thread for Ems photos of Taal, just posted over there.

Thanks for the photos Ems, they give a really good sense of scale and environment. Shame about the blade of grass!

Yes, I clearly didn't know what I was taking pictures of back then! In picture 2 the island is slightly more visible on the left of the pic
http://picasaweb.google.co.uk/107090910741035698162/Taal?authkey=Gv1sRg…

@ems 17, thanks for the photos! Good perspective on the lake. ;-)

EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, Kliuchevskoi and PopocatÃ©petl: The theme of next year's national spelling bee should be volcanoes!
Especially if you throw in the Hawaiian ones.
Erik, you should have a search here for the volcano name that is the most difficult to spell.

I'll put in a vote for another difficult to pronounce-and spell-Icelandic (shield) volcano:

SkjaldbreiÃ°ur.

Ãeistareykjarbunga

I bet they loose it on the first letter.

Have been rather busy this week and there has been lots here to catch up on - thanks Erik and everyone, interesting stuff!

Has there been a discussion, recently, on the earthquake swarm which seems underway for Grimsnes (?) listed as a fissure/crater rows volcano in the WVZ? Any interesting data?

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

I can offer Pululahua, looks easy but lots of opportunity for confusion.

@23 Gordon, that's the thing about the Hawaiian volcanoes as well.

Other nominees are Chigniagak and Quezaltepeque

How about Abu ? :)

Is Katla waking up? There's a swarm of small quakes there...

@26 - Again, for the Katla-worriers: The # and depth of quakes at Katla suggest to me that Katla is not waking up. These quakes strike me as near-surface seismicity related to faults or ice in the caldera. If we start seeing lots (tens to hundreds per day) quakes starting at depth (greater than 5 km), then we can start talking Katla. Until then, the seismicity at Katla is likely benign (volcanically-speaking)

What was the date for all of the volcano evuptions i need toKnow for my homework!!

Ever fear a journey of retaliate without tantalizing an sore buncombe

I'm a Senior Lecturer from the Cultural Studies department at Central Saint Martins exactly where I'm also earning a living on a project for that sector.

When I saw this page was like wow. Thanks for putting your effort in writing this blog.

NASA Earth Observatory images of Cleveland (not the city) and Nyiragongo

eklemetti — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 00:44:39 +0000

NASA Earth Observatory images of Cleveland (not the city) and Nyiragongo

The NASA Earth Observatory has been dazzling us with images from the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption for months - but they have been dazzling us with volcanoes images for years! Here are two more images for those of you who love seeing volcanoes from above:

Cleveland, Alaska
As I mentioned earlier this week, Cleveland volcano likely had a small eruption over the weekend producing a small ash cloud. Cleveland is already known as an extremely picturesque volcano, both from the ground for its highly conical shape - a textbook andesitic stratocone - and from space. This new June 1 image is from almost directly over the volcano, showing the radial symmetry of the volcano formed by lava and debris flows cascading down the slopes of the volcano. A few new debris flows are observed on the east side of the edifice and a weak grey plume is seen drifting off the southwest with ash fall showing that the plume must have been bigger at some point over the weekend.

Nyiragongo, Dem. Republic of the Congo
On the other side of the planet, Nyiragongo - an alkalic shield volcano that erupts basalts - was captured on May 28 with a white, wispy plume coming from the crater pit. The crater area is a series of collapse craters that periodically fill with lava, sometimes spilling over and sending lava flows down the flanks of the volcano. You can see some younger lava flows on the northwest flanks of the volcano and just above the Shaheru Crater, a flank vent on the edifice. The rapid vegetation growth and weathering hide lava flows from view quickly, unlike volcanoes in the high Andes of Chile which can preserve lava flows in "showroom" conditions for thousands (to millions?) of years.

Both of these images remind us how satellite images have vastly improved our ability to monitor remote volcanoes all around the world - and how quickly we can share that information worldwide.

eklemetti Thu, 06/03/2010 - 20:44

New technology that could minimise future disruption to planes from volcanic ash has been unveiled by budget airline easyJet.

The carrier will be the first airline to trial a new "weather radar for ash" system called AVOID (Airborne Volcanic Object Identifier and Detector).

The system involves placing infrared technology onto an aircraft to supply images to both the pilots and an airline's flight control centre.

These images will enable pilots to see an ash cloud up to 62 miles ahead of the aircraft and at altitudes between 5,000ft and 50,000ft.

This will allow pilots to make adjustments to the plane's flight path to avoid any ash cloud.

Millions of passengers had their travel plans wrecked when airlines had to scrap thousands of flights in recent weeks due to the Icelandic volcanic ash problem.

Short but coherent report on Tungurahua eruption

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthvideo/7802711/Ecuador-volcano-eru…

fabulous photo exhibit of the Icelandic eruption(s) at http://myndlist.is/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=119

I have been reading and following this blog since the first eruption of Ejaf.

This blog along with Jeff Masters blog, which led me here, are my daily must hit places on the internet.

Thank You Eric for such a great place to be educated and informed, this is such an interesting place.

Thanks also to the many contributors.

It is most likely that the eruption in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is re-starting, given the signals that are appearing on the tremor plots on the IMO web page.

I am still waiting for a confirmation on this.

JÃ³n, glad to see you posted a comment already. I noticed it's been seismically quiet for the past twelve hours, so I checked the tremor plots and wow, sharp upticks! Is the helicorder activity related this, or just wind?

Oh my, what's happening? http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Jon, what is happening under EyjafjÃ¶ll??

any activity to give any idea??

Unfortunately the webcams are not useful due to too much wind and ash in the air.

Hi to all,

Cloud is blowing left to right on Thoro cam. Occasionaly the cloud drops and what looks to be a large plume appears,top right corner of screen !

Adrian, I'm seeing the same thing. It sure looks like a grey plume but I won't believe it till view clears up.

@ Jon Frimann no. 5

The uptick STARTED at the hvo and hau seismic stations when the other three listed for Eyjafjallajokull were still at base levels - wonder if this is in any way significant? Any ideas on that? (They are all showing high activity now.)

There has also been some more earthquake activity reported for Myrdalsjokull in last 48 hours: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

@La Kat, It is hard to say why that is. But it might just be a simple as a distance factor.

The tremor continues to increase at a fast rate.

For comparison:

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Let's hope it's going to be less violent than last time ... and for all the volcano webcam addicts here, that the weather will be better!

@Boris Behncke, Is there a chance that this might be lava flow ? So far there has not been any plume. But visibility is quite bad at the moment, so I am waiting for some view of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

We should know soon enough what is going on in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull given the current rising tremors.

But there is still not so many earthquakes, just 4 of them and they are relatively minor to, all of them around 1 in magnitude. All of them are rather shallow, between 1 and 7.5 kilometres in depth. I guess it would be more power and higher frequency than that if new magma was on the way up. And I also suspect they would start at greater depth.
Boris, you'r take on this?

Also, it doesn't look like the weather would be better for us webcamoholics... :-(

Meh. Vertical tremor plots are still very low amplitude in comparison with earlier aggressive eruption phase. The one interesting item is the comment on fumerolic noise observed yesterday during a crater recon by IES, noted in their Activity Update for June 4, posted at noon.

'In the crater area solfatara is steaming out with a noise like that from a hight temperature geothermal drill hole.'

Very high geothermal / pore pressure. Magma may have already moved up (repeated swarms from depth to shallows, last week). However, there is insufficicent MAR-thin lithosphere pressure to actively expel magma, but maybe enough to bring it from the depths to heat the glacier subsurface and produce the occasionally 'hot' (thermal webcam) steam-laden plume observed on Mulakot and Por webcams and reported by IES and Eruptions readers, over the past week.

Low-amplitude is associated with "filling" ( possible re-filling in this case?), isn't it?

The tremor plot have started to fall again already. It might be a question if this was a dike pushing inside EyjafjallajÃ¶kull that did not reach the surface. But that however remains a question at the moment.

It might be dropping for a moment now, before it picks up again. That has happened many times before in the eruption of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.

@ Jon Frimann no.20

Re: Magmatic dike resonance

Jon this article may be of interest to you.

You might like to analyse your own private helicorder readings in light of this piece of research by a group of Japanese scientists:

http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/299/5615/2058

Ow... that's not fair...
I'm going away for a week without access to internet ( hiking in the mountains). And just now something is happening/starts to happen (??) at Eya.

( of course I'm happy to have a short holliday, but...)

@Lavendel #22 & everyone

I guess it remains to be seen, if and when EyjafjallajÃ¶kull is going to resume its (fascinating) eruptive activity.

For the moment the tremors have died down again:

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html#googtrans/auto/en

If I had the choice of watching my favorite volcano erupt on various webcams or going to go hiking in the Swiss mountains, I'd chose the latter for sure....

#23 Holger,
don't worry, I won't stay at home for the small chance that she will do anything *s*
I'm to happy to go away for a couple of days with my partner. Too little time together...
But it would be ironic if she blew her top (again) wenn I can't watch. ( after all the waiting *s*)

@Lavendel #24

Of course, we'll keep posting on this forum and you'll be able to go back and read about each and every 'burp' EyjafjallajÃ¶kull may emit during your absence...

Enjoy the mountains, I'm envious...

that will be true for me as well, we will be driving most of the day tomorrow...but tonite I am 'all ears..'

from Google trans and mbl.is FrÃ©ttir - (someone in Iceland, a better translation??)
Increased gosÃ³ri has been EyjafjallajÃ¶kull in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull and has seen black Mocha from the mountain according to his service.

"There has been increased volcanic tremor in Eyjaf. and a black plume has been spotted, according to the IMO."

Excerpts from a later bulletin: Activity increased sharply just after 17 UT, fell around 19:50 UT, then rose again just before 21 UT. Geoscientist Gunnar B. GuÃ°marsson: " It may have been magma, I just can't say for sure; but it looks like steam blasts or increased gas flow with bangs and ruckus; something explosive, anyway." There have been no deep quakes, and no displacement on the GPS recorders.

Gunnar says it's possible that the black plume comes from the thick deposits around the crater being tossed up by the explosions. "It's more than it has been, but it's not from deep down; it's surface activity. Records from the 1821-1823 eruption describe puffs like this happening."

As an aside, dust levels in ReykjavÃk (wind-blown ash) passed 600Âµg/mÂ³ today. In HvolsvÃ¶llur, the dust levels were over 3mg/mÂ³. That's what... 3000kg/kmÂ³ of air?

And for all that, there's still more than plenty enough for ash salesfolk to ply their trade for a long time.

Is this an ash plume which is blown away, what we can see on the Katla webcam (http://www.ruv.is/katla/)?

@Reynir: Walking outside today was not funny. Its like walking through a very dusty area.

I can imagine. Late summers can be very dusty here on the east side.

www.loft.rvk.is/ - This page (no English section) has data from air quality sensors in ReykjavÃk.

kort.vista.is/ - Pointers to two more sensors, one in VÃk in MÃ½rdalur, the other at Heimaland, close to Lady E.

Right bad seeing on the HvolsvÃ¶llur camera. I think that the hill (and farm) in the centre of the image is named Moshvoll (Moss Hill).

Oh, well, there's always Mt. Benten, alt. 6100mm. Turns out Japan's smallest natural mountain has its own camera - and shrine. http://www.bentenyama.com

Evening, everyone!
Just coming back from a long working day and the first thing I noticed on IMO site was the very slow number of EQs. When I entered the blog you people are telling me she's back to action?
Well, I'm watching on ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfell cam now, and it doesn't look that different from the last days. There won't be night darkness so we could see if any lava is showing.
I'll be right here, anyway.

Beautiful plume refracting light on Turrialba cam now, here, for the lurkers:
http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/videoturri.html

And activity in Tungurahua still very high. See beautiful pic!
http://www.prensaescrita.com/adiario.php?codigo=AME&pagina=http://www.h…

Found this page of links

http://www.lattery.com/nwametro/volcano.htm

And video (spanish)showing "Mama Tungurahua" with astonishing cannon shots from the mountain and interview saying there's possibility of "huge pyroclastic flows" at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEj80bmXIwM&feature=player_embedded

Hmm a lot of interesting post tonite - have been in and out of the house all day, so no time for 'net' trawling :0

@Renato 39, 'Mama T.' is indeed impressive, I wish there were more of the various videos (like from rÃºv.is) posted to You-Tube... I can always get the embedded ones to run.

umm - does it look to anyone as though the 'lagoon' under GigjÃ¶kull (Thoro cam) is starting to hold water again?? Maybe a trick of the light, but it looks different.

I was thinking that too birdseye.. I do wish the vodafone cams would get back online..

Looking at MÃºlakot cam, looks like plume is higher...
http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalmulaen.html

@41 Yes, and it also seems as if the cam's fuzzy factor has worsened
@, 42 Yes, me too *sigh*
@, 43 Yes, on that cam it does, but doesn't reconcile as that high on the Thorolss cam

I see things were a little busy today. I was out chasing tarballs.
Interesting spikes earlier on the tremor plots. No earthquakes though. But she refuses to give up doesn't she.

pictures and video of tar on the beach here
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8388935@N04/

Very peculiar tremor plot! http://i48.tinypic.com/j64tqc.png

It says "digital" to me. Digital as in exactly one thing is happening. As in one flow or resonance in a single harmonic cavity.

@Dan45... eeew..sorry....
@46 Raving - I just looked at the 'short term' plots, & have no idea how to read them but yes, different.
JÃ³n???

Off to sleep now, but I'll check in before we hit the road tomorrow. Blessings on all...

The small eruption earlier tonight has been confirmed. But they also spoke about this being a shallow tremor, whatever that is.

But there is more to this then seems according to news. Given how the tremor have risen and dropped over the last few hours. I would say that this is a slow re-start of the eruption. Since something is pushing the magma upwards at the moment, even if it goes a bit slowly and the pressure is not high to create huge explosions.

http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/frodleikur/greinar/nr/1863

This link to Iceland's RUV was posted by Mike Richards on the other thread last morning. It has a report from the crater rim of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull - it's in Icelandic. Wish I could understand what they say.

http://dagskra.ruv.is/sjonvarpid/4472205/2010/06/03/0/

Posted by: Mike Richards | June 3, 2010 9:39 PM

New post:

http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/06/small_explosions_at_eyjafjall…

Conveniently disorganized and trippin' nearly avoirdupois

Convey me mistakes or you gift whippy under your other

Hey, found your site by accident doing a search on Google but Iâll definitely be coming back. - Most people are bothered by those passages of Scripture they do not understand, but the passages that bother me are those I do understand. - Mark Twain 1835 - 1910

Immer kommen neue Mobile auf den Marktplatz. Aber wie erfolgreich sind diese ?

Andauerned erscheinen aktuelle Handys auf den Handelsplatz. Aber wie ordentlich sind diese wirklich?

Agreed, very well written and can't wait for the second half.

Bezymianny, Cleveland and Tungurahua updates for 6/1/2010

eklemetti — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 11:29:26 +0000

Bezymianny, Cleveland and Tungurahua updates for 6/1/2010

Tungurahua in Ecuador erupting on May 31, 2010.

Two volcanoes along the edge of the north Pacific had explosive eruptions over the weekend. We have some more details on both of the eruptions, so I'll pass them on:

Bezymianny
KVERT is excited because they claim to have predicted the explosive eruption of Bezymianny almost to the day. They had been closely monitoring the volcano and issued this statement on May 20:

According to satellite data by AVO and KVERT staff, a temperature of
the thermal anomaly over the lava dome of Bezymianny volcano began
increasing from May 19 (from -1 (9:49 UTC) to +18 (15:52 UTC) degrees of C).
Possibly a new lava block extrudes at the lava dome of Bezymianny.
And this stand for a preparation of new strong explosive eruption of Bezymianny volcano.
Possibly this explosive eruption of Bezymianny volcano can occurs during May 21 - May 30 or May 21 - June 10.

Four days later, they upgraded the volcano's status to Orange:

Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity
KVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 23-10
Monday, May 24, 2010, 02:20 UTC (14:20 KDT)
BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO: 55Â°58'N, 160Â°36'E; Elevation 2,882 m
CURRENT AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
PREVIOUS AVIATION COLOR CODE WAS YELLOW
Activity of the volcano gradually increased. Possibly a new explosive eruption of the
volcano is preparing. According to satellite data, a temperature of thermal
anomaly over the lava dome continues to increasing from 18 degrees of Celsius on May
19, to 48.8 degrees of Celsius on May 23.

Sure enough, the volcano erupted, producing a 10 km (32,000 foot) ash column on May 31.

Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity
KVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 25-10
Monday, May 31, 2010, 20:45 UTC (June 01, 08:30 KDT)
BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO: 55Â°58'N, 160Â°36'E; Elevation 2,882 m
CURRENT AVIATION COLOR CODE IS RED
PREVIOUS AVIATION COLOR CODE WAS ORANGE
Strong explosive eruption of Bezymianny volcano occurred from 12:34 till 12:50 UTC on
May 31, according to seismic data. Ash fall in Kozyrevsk village is continuing. The
volcano obscured by clouds.

Not bad for an operation that almost lost all of its funding and only operates 8:30 AM until 6:00 PM.

Cleveland
Meanwhile, Cleveland in the Alaska Aleutians did end up having an explosive eruption over the weekend as well. AVO issued a warning last week that the volcano was likely to erupt and upgraded the alert status to Yellow. On May 31, the volcano did end up erupting, producing a 4.8 km (16,000 foot) ash column. However, the volcano has gone quiet since this small event. (Of course, don't believe all the news you read, like this article that starts with "A volcano in Cleveland, Ohio emitted on Monday night a small ash cloud." Now, that would be news!)

Tungurahua
Halfway around the planet, Tungurahua in Ecuador is still erupting (spanish) after prompting evacuations earlier last week. The latest reports talk about the volcano producing over 400 explosions an day, with incandescent blocks being thrown from the vent - helping to produce the 10 km (32,000 foot) ash plume. Seismicity is still increasing under the volcano, so there could be more explosive events on the way. You can see some video of the eruption over on Benjamin Bernard's blog (french).

eklemetti Tue, 06/01/2010 - 07:29

Great. Another Russian Volcano burps-and another late to no tomato summer in NE Oregon-just watch...
Haven't had much of a spring either...

Dr. Olga A. Girina makes her case eloquently for extended funding for KVERT. The period of 2007-2009 was quite active for ash and volcanic gas release in the Kamchatka/Kurile/Aleutian volcanic zones.

We're politely asking our friends to the North to put up Canookie-Bucks to help KVERT continue it's exceptionally important mission and reminding them that Canada tends to suffer the brunt of volcanic post-eruption detrimental environmental/weather and health effects.

We'll play nicey-nice if you do. We'll share some of our findings with you *quietly*, through appropriate channels in the months ahead, so that your agencies can take appropriate action when needed for risk reduction, with a little advanced warning and knowledge in hand.

ehh,. have anyone seen on Thorolfscam lately??

are there more lava coming down gigjÃ¸kull now?? it seems like there is something going on there, and quite a lot of steaming too,.

What I find ridiculous is the tunnel vision of USGS Volcano Dept. Not a single peep about the eruption across the straits from Alaska (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/), while on the EQ side they announce and map every significant event on the globe (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/). Still, the volcanoes might prove much more hazardous to U.S. citizens than EQs ever could.

Kultsi, I believe media report what they feel is the current public interest. Before 1980, it was earthquakes - people were "waiting for the big one" on the West Coast. Then it was volcanoes - as evidenced by those two mid-nineties movies "Volano" & "Dante's Peak", "coincidentally" both set in the Western States. After Christmas Day 2004, the good people on the West Coast's favourite fear is a giant tsunami that will wipe them out, generated by? Yes, earthquakes. So what does get funding, because if it doesn't some politicians look bad for "not listening to public concern". 55 million Californians...

AVO did carry a short report of the Kamchatka eruption via KVERT weblink
http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/updates.shtml

The link can be found under the KVERT/recent activity section, right-side of the webpage.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/

AVO works in careful coordination with their Russian counterparts at KVERT/SVERT. AVO isn't ignoring what goes on in Kamchatka and the Kuriles - on the contrary, the Observatory staff* play an important but low key role in supporting Russian volcano observation and eruption/emissions reporting activities.

* I am commenting as an interested professional party and not in the capacity as spokesperson for USGS staff/UA faculty/research affiliates.

Erik, thanks for the Tung. eruption reference great photos and interesting 'in the moment ' commentary.

Hi Thor, maybe a little lava?,or just he usual hot spots, and there was a 2+ earthquake a while ago, only one, I think the rest is just clouds.

@Passerby #6: I know that AVO does a good job with their Russian counterparts, as well as within their sphere on responsibility, but USGS is the top organization, right? So, why don't they show the hazards on their map? (which ONLY shows the Pacific ring of fire)

Wouldn't it be easier to go to the purse-holders and say, "Look, we even showed this threat, but we don't really have the money to keep this up..."

thanks birdseyeUSA, then its not my eyes,..

it looks like its a little bit hotter on EyjaflÃ¶ll, tonight than it has been,. but it just might be those hotspots, but they seem a little bit hotter than before..

could lava just flow out silently without any eruption on the top? or does she just burp up some now and then.. cause the eruption doesnt quite seem like its totaly over..

Kultsi - the USGS page shows those volcanoes which lie in US political union areas. That's their responsibility; the Kamchatkan volcanoes are Russia's responsibility. AVO and KVERT have an operational agreement. Comparing earthquake monitoring to volcano monitoring and eruption response is apples and oranges, in terms of activities required, funding levels, and program scope. The US observatories could use funding, also - see http://www.hazardscaucus.org/briefings/volcano_briefing0410.html

Underwater volcano blows just north of Saipan.

http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti…

@#8: the website you cite is the USGS National Volcanic Hazard map. It covers *officially* covers US continental and extra-continental (Alaskan, Hawaiian, and US Possession /Territorial waters) volcanic hazards, per US Congressional order (P.L. 93-288) that the agency issue 'timely warnings of potential volcanic hazards to responsible emergency-management authorities and to the (US) populace affected'.

The USGS is networked through VAAC, including the Washington Office, to communicate risk observations of overseas volcanic hazards to interacting global community of volcanic monitoring entities.

The US and other national geological hazard programs interact within layers of direct and indirect legal, political and economic influence:

regional centers > national agencies > international centers > international authorities (brokered by special accords/agreements)

@9 Thor, the hot spots seem hotter or colder depending on how hot or cold everything around them is, as far as I understand FLIR, so one never quite knows ; ) I go by the plume if I can see it, because I know that is definitely somewhat warm - then I can compare.
Wonder if there will be FLIR on any other volcanoes??? Rocks and lava going up 1km (So. Am. ,) that's amazing.

EYJAFJALLAJÃKULL report
Status Report: 15:00 GMT, 1 June 2010
Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University
of Iceland
Compiled by: Gunnar B. GuÃ°mundsson, Helga ÃvarsdÃ³ttir, Sibylle von LÃ¶wis and SigrÃºn
HreinsdÃ³ttir
Based on: IMO seismic monitoring; IES-IMO GPS monitoring; IMO hydrological data;
web cameras, ATDnet â UK Met. Offices lightning detection system, web-
based ash reports from the public and scientists that went to the volcano.
Eruption plume:
Height (a.s.l.): Clouds and mist have covered the summit of the volcano both
yesterday and today. At 08:00 GMT today a white cloud was seen at 2
km a.s.l. on web-cameras. Winds of up to 10 m/s are blowing from the
east.
Heading: N/A
Colour: N/A
Tephra fallout: Widespread drifting of existing ash in southwest Iceland, both
yesterday and today. High concentration of airborne dust in ReykjavÃk
yesterday at noon and again at midnight.
Lightning: No lightning strikes have been detected.
Noises: No reports.
Meltwater: Low discharge from GÃgjÃ¶kull.
Conditions at eruption site: N/A
Seismic tremor: Volcanic tremor is still more than before the eruption and has been
rather steady since 22nd May, but small pulses, mostly on the lowest
frequency are being detected on the seismic stations around the
volcano.

Earthquakes: Daily, there are several small and shallow earthquakes under the
volcano.
GPS deformation: No significant deformation at sites around EyjafjallajÃ¶kull.
Overall assessment: There is still a considerable amount of steam coming from the
crater. The tremor is still higher than before the onset of the eruption,
and small tremor pulses have been detected on the lowest frequency.
We continue to monitor the volcano closely.

thanks again birdseyeUSA,..

I just read the update, and saw the earthquake.. then looked on the cam, and it seems like something is going on,. but really hard to tell,.

the flir cam shows that there is somewhat more glow on the plume than yesterday,and daybefore.
and she has her dayly burps of ash and smaller gravel.. but since there are more quakes and movements under there there still are an eruption, yet without the big booms and ash,.

In the previous thread, Daniel (swe) asked about the recent eq swarm at Reykjanes peninsula. I've been curious about that area, too. I've read about the lava tubes (and about the 2001 draining of Lake Kleifarvatn further to the west) but don't know much more. Can anyone shed light about the seismic and volcanic characteristics of this area?

@ thor #15 & @birdseyeUSA #14

What ever it is, there is a remarkably strong steam plume visible in the HvolsvÃ¶llur webcam. I guess it's still worthwhile to keep an eye on EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, even though the 'competition' from around the world has been very busy as of late....

Not bad for an operation that almost lost all of its funding and only operates 8:30 AM until 6:00 PM.

If you want some money then it's easy. The opportunity is there for the exploiting. Go set up a pork barreling NGO under the auspices of the UN.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System

HVO plot had a small spike around 2-3 hours ago. (HVO is the one just east of Katla, away from Eyjafjallajokull). Also, keep an eye on the Kistufell-Bardarbunga area (Vatnajokull). There have been a few earthquake swarms there, most recently at Kistufell.

That's a pretty impressive steam plume on the Hvollsvelli cam....I guess she got a little jealous over all the attention the other volcanoes were getting;)

@ Randall Nix #20 - And getting better by the minute as the morning sun illuminates the steam plume

I wonder what can be making such a large white plume. It's only been a month, but I cannot remember what the early eruption of the last two vents looked like-- was it steam? heh. Gettin old and tired and in the way--- I think it was steam first.

@Randall #20 & @Kathryn #21

Impressive steam plume indeed, but the FLIR camera still shows the moon to be hotter than the steam plume (see: EyjafjallajÃ¶kull seen from ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfell)...

I guess it's still only the remaining heat from the earlier eruption and no new lava (yet?).

Kathryn, Australia it's just steam but it still makes a nice picture;)

Holger, N California Give it time;)

Only one post for me, been sick. But wanted to let you know don't get hooked on the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli cam or you're going to miss the nice view on Hvolsvelli. :)

@Dan #25 - Got both open!:-)Then I won't miss anything.... hope you're better soon.......

There appears to be some short of tremor pulse going on SIL station hvo (LÃ¡gu Hvolar). I am not sure why this is happening. This might just be a simple glacier water flood or something from Katla internal systems changing and creating this pulse on the sensor.

http://data.emsd.iks.ru/videokzy/videokzy.htm

Nice eruption underway of some order at Bezymianny again...

@MRK 28 Thanks for the heads-up. Busy admiring eyjaf and kiluea.

Hahaha - a volcano in Cleveland - I'm sure that would come as surprise to everyone in the flat flat midwest plains. Presumably whoever wrote the story had never been to Ohio much less Cleveland?

That's an awesome photo of Tungurahua; I wish I had a giant sized poster for my wall.

The Wikipedia entry on Cleveland (the volcano) is not bad; it even has a map of the Aleutian chain (of which several of the volcanoes are pretty active). Cleveland is one of the more inaccessible and difficult to monitor volcanoes on the planet and it's caused trouble before. If I'm not too senile some remote monitoring equipment was put up on Cleveland a few years ago. One of the great challenges for unattended instrumentation there is the extremes of temperature through the year - well, more so the extreme cold.

Have you ever noticed that a watched webcam never refreshes?

A look at the plume from Hekla.
We needed this beautiful weather while the big activity was going. But it's not as it go for volcanoes, it was said...

#32 The link is:
http://www.simnet.is/jonfr500/earthquake/vefmyndeyjafjalen.html

Nyharongo? Nope. Kilauea!
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo/cams/POcam/

Can anyone explain the strange activity at HVO station?

Looks like a similar pattern as EF had during the eruption just on a smaller scale.

@Renato I Silveira, Hekla is plume free. EyjafjallajÃ¶kull however isn't. There is a good steam coming from him at the moment.

I hadn't time to check up on Kilauea recently. Took a quick look the other day (Saturday), nothing seemed changed much from end of April 2010.

Tonight, I was startled to see the Halema'uma'u webcam showing a very large incandescence signal.

Normal image is a plume in the distance, sometimes with numerous midfield geothermal field emissions, taken from the webcam located at the volcano observatory visitor center.

I have been watching the HVO webcams for quite some time (couple years) and don't recall seeing this night-time glow on the KIcam.

@ Renato, #33: That camera is in MÃºlakot, which sits about halfway between HvolsvÃ¶llur and Thorolfsfell, on the north side of MarkarfljÃ³t, about 30 km SSE from Hekla.

Which cam are you watching? The two Halema'uma'u cams have shown activity. The view from the observatory has had a fine red glow for months (weather permitting)

Tonight is the first time I've seen Pu'u 'O'o glow red in the night. For the last couple of years, it's been too gassy to see anything. I think I read that the old camera at this site fell into the magma when a cliff gave way. Perhaps this is the new camera. I like it. Also, during the day, the TEB wide-image camera now has a wonderful panorama of the outbreak.

Cam page: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo/cams/

Ooops! SSW of Hekla, of course. My bad.

EYJ
http://eldgos.mila.is/english/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Clear view - all the black ash covers the glacier with a background of blue sky and small white steam. Quiet a different look!

EYJ
http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

This camera view was shut down when they couldn't access the unit to re-charge batteries due to safety issues of its location. Do you think now they will be able to get this camera view back in operation during the current lull?

I forget where I read that 7 week eruption at EYJ was to be expected and that is what we got.

@28 MRK It appears that the Bezymianny cam has died. Do you supposed that the eruption may have affected it?

#36 #38 I meant Eyjaf view from Hekla, from where you can clearly see a neat plume. :)

@Passerby [37]

I've been meaning to do a historical quake plot along "The Great Crack" but have never gotten around to it. Over the last two days I've been digging over benzene toxicity and saturations levels in seawater coupled with the USGS flow data... it ain't pretty.

My main interest is the Hilina scarp. In '75 the lower part of it suddenly dropped by about 11 feet. This was concurrent with a Mag 7.2 quake.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilina_Slump

The concept takes on a rather ominous tone when you consider the Tuscaloosa seamount... a 25km x 12km x 2km chunk that was formerly part of Oahu. (Nuuanu slide, â2.1 mybp) No, I don't think Hilina is close to failing, but is is something I want to look at.

nthmp-history.pmel.noaa.gov/its2001/Separate_Papers/6-04_Satake.pdf

To the left of the main lava flow in GigjÃ¶kull there's another small plume of steam to the left of the little ice capped summit. I just can't understand how a flow can originate from a site higher then the main crater. I've noticed that some days ago, but all the area was so covered that I couldn't tell for sure. Now it seems pretty clear. Any comments on this?

#46 Those are clouds forming out of thin air - happens all the time in mountains; saturated air needs just a tiny nudge to start condensation. On the lee side of a ridge the pressure is lower and often that is enough to start the process.

Hi everyone,
@Boris Behncke:
I just wanted to tell you, I saw you on TV last night! There was a volcano special (3 related documentaries) on German TV. I didn't get to see all of it (due to other things) and I'm hoping for a repeat, but anyway, you were there, climbing the flanks of your beloved Etna - I was amazed at the massive lava flow approaching that village. Scary stuff, lave that flows in tunnels for long distances before it cools down. The documentary to look out for was called "Vulkane - Die Uhr tickt", Germany, 2006. Given the amount of repeats on various TV stations, I'm sure there will be a rerun some day soon.

Parclair @39, I've been watching Pu'u 'O'o for several years now and this is the first time I've seen a glow like that, in fact I've tabbed back and there appears to be lava/spattering above the pit.

It's also nice to see blue skies over Iceland. It's the first time I've seen the steam plume as clearly as that for ages.

Just to cap it all, I'm looking out over my garden to a beautiful June morning in Aberdeen (Scotland). Summer must be a comin'!

For those not around to see the pretty view from Hvolsvellur early this morning, Iceland time, I've put some screenshots up....
http://picasaweb.google.com/114420151580577086982

#49 I have now worked what I was looking at at Pu'u 'O'o. Later viewing gave more info and the activity is lava pooling on the crater floor,with occasional flaring from gas vents - confirmed by status update page.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo/activity/kilaueastatus.php

#50: Thank you, Kathryn, for the screenshots!

@Anita in Austria #48, thanks for notifying me - it looks like there is a lot of video with me in circulation, and I don't recall this one specifically!

Guatemala has had a tough time with the volcanic eruption
and now storm Agatha which caused major flooding and this rather terrifying natural occurence http://www.mixxbuzzers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/guatemala-sinkhol…

Same as above with better photographs and news.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/science_technology/huge+guatemala…

The sinkhole in Guatemala City is not a "natural" occurrence since it's (almost certainly) due to a leaky sewer. In any case, though it looks dramatic, it's not nearly as much of a disaster for Guatemala as the mudslides, flooding, volcanic ash, and crop failures elsewhere.

Good morning all - well, sorry, no question of the day from me -this is my first volcano, and I just don't know enough to think of a passable question - to which I have answer! I'm on information overload, no synthesis yet.

@Kathryn 50, thanks for the screenshots. As I get up, so does the wind, and all goes to dust, so it's really nice to see clear air photos. RE: Valahnjuk cam, wasn't that in the heavily ashed area? And on top of snow at the time - so, probably too dangerous up there even w/o an active eruption? I'd be surprised to see it back any time soon.

So many webcams, so little time.....

RE: Guatemala, how does one live day to day knowing that the ground may swallow you at any moment? There used to be little occasional sinkholes in farm fields near where I Iived in Iowa, but not like this!

#56 - There must be an underlying waterway/cave system to carry away the massive amount of sand, it does not just disappear, and the cavity forming must start from the bottom to appear as a huge surprise. A leaky rainwater sewage system is a good candidate for providing the primary erosion.

This is about an unrelated volcano but I figured people here might be interested. The Pu'u O'o crater on Kilauea is filling with lava right now, I think: webcam http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo/cams/POcam/

Wow!

Guatemala Sinkhole. I'm pretty sure what we're seeing is the first step in the formation of a cenote. I'll leave it to wikipedia to describe them and their formation (I'm not good enough). Cenotes are a common feature in that area-- really wonderful nature, not so good when in an urban setting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cenote

From today's Iceland Review...

02/06/2010 | 09:30
Volcanic Eruption in Iceland Still Not Formally Over
Geophysicist MagnÃºs Tumi Gudmundsson said it is not yet possible to declare that the volcano in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull glacier has officially stopped erupting. There are still tremors and seismic activity down below.

Sveinn RunÃ³lfsson, director of the Soil Conservation Service of Iceland, told Morgunbladid that soil reclamation in a 4,000-hectare area is necessary.

âIt is clear that the area that was subject to extensive ash fall is very large. It is estimated to be at least 3,500 square kilometers,â he said. That is approximately 3.4 percent of Icelandâs overall area.

The Soil Conservation Service has worked on a plan since the eruption in EyjafjallajÃ¶kull began on strengthening vegetation in the area by sowing and spreading fertilizers, to bind the ash where there is risk of it being carried away with the wind.

It is most important to take such measures in settled areas. Otherwise, ash drift could continue for months or even years.

However, the project costs up to ISK 100 million (USD 781,000, EUR 637,000) and funding hasnât been secured. The matter has yet to be discussed with Environment Minister SvandÃs SvavarsdÃ³ttir.

RunÃ³lfsson said the idea is to employ people in the area with spreading fertilizers and seed using their tractors and spreaders.

The wind has been blowing in from the southeast in the past days, carrying ash from the eruption site to the capital region. Car owners have noticed how dirty their cars have become.

Not exactly volcanology but cenotes really interest me, especially the underwater linkages eventually leading to the sea in Mexico.
The link below details relationship between cenotes and Chicxlub crater formed from meteorite impact
http://miac.uqac.ca/MIAC/chicxulub.htm

Hi Gordon nice post, great graphics - but you know that Chix wasn't the crater that really laid down the K/Tboundary, no? : ) Here's the other approach...

http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/keller/chicxulub.html

Hi - just checking to see the activity of LadyE and noticed that there is a lot of seismicity around Hengill - Is this normal for this area?

twin plumes on the ÃÃ³rÃ³lfsfelli visible light cam one at the long standing place, and one far to the right out of the flir view

just wait the clouds clear and give a good view

(next VEI â¥ 3) Paddypower predicts:

Katla 7/4 ... up from 9/4 on May 27th
Eyjafjallajokull 10/1
Etna 28/1

Meanwhile Nature suggests the likelihood of a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest in the next 50 years at 37% and up from the previous estimate of a 10-15% risk.

The latest news on Tungurahua, from within the last hour

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/326917,hundreds-flee-volcanic-e…

"Quito - Hundreds of people sought to escape the eruption of the Tungurahua volcano Wednesday in Ecuador, days after the evacuation of around 2,500 locals.

Volcanic activity in the Tungurahua, 5,010 metres high and located around 130 kilometres away from Quito, intensified Wednesday, with explosions and other sounds that scared locals.

Residents further sought to move some 420 head of cattle away from the volcano, because pastures have become covered with ash."

Taking a 'cooling off' break from mowing - it's about 30Âº out there...but rain coming, and rain last night so, no choice...

Just looked at the link Erik posted for Tunguraua video/shock waves,it's up now and pretty impressive ...
http://bigbenber.over-blog.com/

a $250,000 grant from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will put two solar-powered digital seismometers on Anatahan and Sarigan, two active volcanoes in the island chain near Guam. The systems should be fully operational by November, ... To date, there is no money for maintaining the systems.

Stars and Stripes (May 14, 2010)

#68 birdseyeUSA and Erik, good link, good shockwave. Delay in sound puts camera about 6 miles from the crater.

BirdseyeUSA @63 - Just when I thought I knew something... at least the Deccan Traps are still implicated in the KT extinction. Question is, where's the crater that did cause the KT boundary? The thot plickens.

#68 birdseyeUSA and Erik, good link, good shockwave. Delay in sound puts camera about 6 miles from the crater.

#68 Something's wrong with the video "Explosions et ondes de choc au Tungurahua" at that link - all I get is some sound - no picture. The other video "Explosion strombolienne du volcan Tungurahua" on the page works fine.

Hvolsvelli cam makes Lady E look as though she's sending steam signals or having a good huff.

I spotted a car registration plate today that read EYA 20F. Would be nice if the owner was a follower of "Eruptions"

#68 re mowing, do what I do and cut paths to where you want to go. Let the rest grow up. Makes the garden look bigger and helps biodiversity. You can always weed any real nasties that arrive.

Re #68/72 never mind - after 3 or 4 tries with no video, it worked fine on a later attempt to view it. I don't know what changed.....

71: The crater is Chicxulub, in the ocean next to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Despite the work of Alverez Snr and Jnr to identify it, it is not now thought to be the main cause of the KT extinction.
The cause of (KT extinction) is a contentious subject but the crater is real.

New Earthquake...
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time Wednesday, June 02, 2010 at 18:51:08 UTC
Thursday, June 03, 2010 at 05:51:08 AM at epicenter
Location 13.682Â°S, 166.422Â°E
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region VANUATU

http://www.geohazards.gov.vu/index.php?option=com_content&view=frontpag…

No question that Chicx. is real, lots of work done on it, as Gordon's #62 post showed. (Amazing that we can do that sort of thing when you come to think of it. )
@73 ( OT ) Good exercise. Keeps the bugs down and the deer nervous. The rest of the land is rougher, they're welcome to it.

@Gordon [73]

"...cut paths to where you want to go. Let the rest grow up. Makes the garden look bigger and helps biodiversity..."

Around here if I tried that I would get water moccasins. The mowed grass tends to keep them away since the hawks can see them if they come out. I'm not particularly fond of moccasins.

@Raving #69: Thanks. Sounds like business as usual then - never any money to monitor the volcanoes in the CNMI. I wonder what telemetry equipment they'll use, or if the system is meant to be visited every month or so. I think Saipan (the closest island with anything resembling modern technology) is about 80NM from Anatahan (too lazy to check a map and get a definite figure).

@Dan Florida, - hear that the oil is approaching Pensacola, we're thinking of you.

@80 birdseye. It sucks. Going to head out there tomorrow evening.

Created a page that has links to web cams in the area (well, after the sun comes back up). :)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/dashboardcowman/show.html

Yeah I live in Pensacola too:( I did get one more good sail in last week....We rafted up several sailboats off Fort McRee, everyone ate fresh shrimp, drank, listened to Buffett and talked about how much we all loved the area. I went for a long swim. While floating on my back in the warm pristine water I looked over at the booms and wondered just what the area would look like in a few weeks? Now it looks like I am about to find out:( I am going to the beach tomorrow and try to enjoy the water just one more time....and say one more goodbye to an old friend.

http://www.diariollanquihue.cl/prontus4_nots/site/artic/20100602/pags/2…

M 5.4 2010/06/03 04:32:44 70.777 -14.535 10.9 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION

#83 Hola Guillermo! They downgraded alert level, but it still looks angry, doesn't it?

Evacuations ordered from growing activity on Tungurahua:
According to the Instituto Geofisico, the type of activity is characterized by the generation of explosions that ejected blocks about a thousand meters below the crater and columns of steam with low to medium content of ash usually not surpassing 3 km high.
"There was also an explosion at 03:00, which led to the descent of a small pyroclastic flow down to 1.5 km"
www.lahora.com.ec

Sakurajima just cleared her throat quite loudly in the last half an hour. Ash up to 11,000 15nm south of Kagoshima airport reported. Check out this webcam image taken about 30 mins ago:

http://tweetphoto.com/25313747

@randall nix[82]

Fear for the Rainbow Trout and related saltwater residents. Based on the average concentration (all I could find was data for North Sea and Bay of Campeche) the concentration of benzene in raw crude runs about 0.1 to 1.2% by mass. Max solubility in water is 0.8 g/L, or 800 mg/L.

The LC50 (median lethal dose) for Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) is 5.3 mg/L or 5.2 ppm. IDLH (Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health) for people is 500 ppm. At max concentration it sits at about 779.6 ppm. That's likely why you hear stories of the spill workers getting sick. And that's just the benzene.

Okay, enough rant about the Gulf of Mexico Oil Volcano...

Sorry for the OT.

Lurking thanks for the info....I fear for all the little critters. My girlfriend has really bad asthma so I also worry about her breathing this stuff:(

Goooooood Mooooorning Japan!

Anybody out there who has a link to a Sakurajima web-cam?
Just found the research center, but that was not up to Icelandic standards... (pouting) I guess I have been spoiled by the coverage of E.

Here's links to Saku research center and DPRI.

http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~kazan/research_e.html

http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/web_e/index_topics.html

Here's the link for the Sakurajima cam:

http://kagoshima-live.com/sakurajima.html

I should have said ash reported to 11,000ft south of Kagoshima airport in my earlier post.

Just a quick question to the more knowledgeable - is it normal that we have so many volcanoes around the world active?

Normal? whats Normal the planet does what it has done for million of years,the volcanic activity on the planet has been far more active than it is today. So I guess this is "normal"
but yeah there is many volcanoes active now, and I guess more volcanoes will shake and stirr in the future.
We are living on a living planet,we must not forget that,and the landmasses around us, has not just come here by it self ..

Good morning all -
@94, I like your last sentence in particular, Thor.

#77,78 I think I would cut all my grass too if there was a likelihood of poisonous snakes in suburban Scotland. Deer can be a problem here, but not in my garden to date...

Just stumbled on this...our Icelandic friends are looking for visitors.No, world, Iceland is not entirely covered in ash....
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=128503987169140&ref=mf

ummm- maybe I should have previewed the video first....

Caught some bug this week and haven't been up to looking at that inspiredbyiceland thing yet meself. Typical tourist bait, right?

Yet another Sakura-jima camera link: http://373news.com/_sakucap/index.php

Fixed angle and view, lots of pretty blinkenlichter on the frame, no auto-refresh.

Short article in New Scientist today:
The volcanic ash cloud that had a positive electrical charge.

On 19th April, Giles Harrison at University of Reading and colleagues used detectors aboard a weather balloon to measure the charge in the ash cloud over Scotland.
It reached 0.5 picocoulombs per m3 where there were 50 particles of ash per cm3 of air. (Environmental Research Letter, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024004)

That's around 1/20th of the danger level set by te UK CAA.
A similar detector on aircraft could alert pilots to dangerous ash levels, Harrison says.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18966-icelandic-volcanos-ash-blan…

@Reynir: You are not dancing through the country and taking nude baths in natural hot pots? Then you are not an Icelander :-))
The video is funny, but its a commercial.

@97 Birdseye-- NOW I've got an earworm that won't stop=="I'm dancing thru the jungle, yeah" Yikes. ;-)

Hah-- The hole in Guatemala City isn't a cenote, it's a Piping Structure. It's because of the volcanic tuff under the city and bad engineering--

http://geotripper.blogspot.com/2010/06/piping-structure-at-guatemala-ci…

geology.about.com/b/2010/06/03/the-hole-in-guatemala.htm

NS also has fabulous article on Deccan Traps too.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627631.300-deeper-impact-did-me…
I love half term - catch up on reading.

@104 parclair - sorry about the earworm. ; ) Learn something new every day, I didn't know about 'piping structures' at all....good find!

Hmmm...
03-JUN-2010 07:43:42 13.58 -44.84 Mag 5.0 10.0 km NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

#107 arggh I meant to post the two just north of Iceland
03-JUN-2010 10:16:15 70.75 -14.43 4.8 10.0 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
03-JUN-2010 04:32:43 70.78 -14.53 5.4 10.9 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION

Turrialba is looking puffy today:

http://www.ovsicori.una.ac.cr/videoturri.html

#109 @parclair I've been keeping a close look on Turrialba. Today it's all BW with the exception of the steam plume at the base. What is it - lava reflected?

Re: Jan Mayen
http://eng.efnahagsraduneyti.is/media/Acrobat/Geology.pdf

Also this, which might be the earthquake related bit -Â Beerenberg Volcano..

sorry, forgot the link - site is run on Jan Mayen. http://www.jan-mayen.no/geology.htm

That's Beerenberg on Jan Mayen Island?
http://geo.hmg.inpg.fr/caplain/janmayen/
photo 7 wander how deep that man sized hole is?

Postings have been great today, piping structures, Deccan Traps, impact craters and K/T origin (or not); keep them coming.

#111 #112 #113 Yes, keep them coming, but I'll have to store them, because I'm still trying to cope with the old crust formation underneath Iceland (posted last week). After going through all this I'll claim a degree in Geology... :)
Thank you guys!

@111 and 113 Thanks birdseyeUSA and Gordon. Interesting stuff!

I meant to add a link before - looks like it hasn't been updated,but shows a '70's eruption at Beerenberg. A link to a Norwegian seismic center showed several big earthquakes not at Beerenberg but near a smaller island, this May.
http://www.jan-mayen.no/geology.htm and http://jordskjelv.no/

@ 105 Stigger - finally had a moment to look at that, thanks.

I'm still trying to read a paper from a couple of weeks ago-- I must have 50 bookmarks in my "to read" folder. Yikes! But, keep them coming.

Um, re Turiallba, I see a pinkish tinge too (or did until the clouds rolled in). I'm not sure what it is, the rocks appear reddish on my monitor, so it could be a reflection of them, or an optical illusion. *sideways question mark*

#102 @Chris: I barely feel up to digesting supper while sitting in front of the monitor.

Aside: Got shouted off the loo to watch fresh pictures from Lady E. on KastljÃ³s ("Highlight") on the telly. It was gummiey and a team from RUV-TV. If those that cancelled their hols up here were to see the footage, there'd be such wailing and gnashing of teeth that it'd make Rama look sunny and quiet.

@birdeyeUSA 116 thanks again for the extra links. Now I can diligently watch the seismos at JMIC :)

Iceland Met N-Atlantic tab shows 6 quakes today from 2.7 up to 4.0. All around 300km NE of Kolbeiney. Kolbeiney 100km north of Iceland. Are these the same events as the 4.8 and 5.0 at Jan Mayen? Seem about 200km too far south, but only guessing really.

#118 @Parclair: Turrialba is putting nice daily shows. Still think it could be glowing lava reflected... not sure... can't see "red rocks" - everything around looks black and white, but for the orange-brownish tint on the plume.
#105 @Stigger: Interesting impact theory on Deccan traps. What if Yucatan's meteor split in two? No matching samples of Iridium in both locations?
Anyway, quite plausible deduction, seems to my amateur approach - impacts causing mantle to destabilize and thus generating hotspots elsewhere (which could also explain Siberian traps, 250 mil. y ago).
As for the non-avian dinosaur extinction, I saw on TV a paleontologist claiming there was no fossil evidence to it: no big amounts of dinosaur bones being found at a same layer corresponding to the extinction period. Where did they go? (Big question mark)

#121 @Mike: According to what I read, if I quite understood from earlier links posted, yes, there's a correlation between Jan Mayen and Kolbeiny. There's old crust material from Jan Mayen under Iceland. But maybe I'm wrong...
If you allow me, @birdseye:
http://www.dur.ac.uk/g.r.foulger/Offprints/OlderCrust.pdf
I wonder if there's any relation to the Greenland's sea EQs on early May too, further NE.

#122 @ Renato, either giant object which had split in two and hit separately (improbable but not impossible)

or (leaning towards)it hit at Chicxulub and the force (pressure waves) resonated through the Earth causing massive internal damage (like a bullet) and basalt eruption at exit point. Given the different layout of the continents then, Shiva could have been located over a hot spot then enabling basalt lava flow for many thousands of years.

Fragments with similar composition (possibly meteorite) have been found in Antarctica and in Siberian lava dated to 250 Mya.

It is a puzzle as below Shiva, 7km down the neat layers stop. There is a layer of shattered rock, then 1km of solidified volcanic lava, interrupted by intermediate layers of sedimentary rocks, but rooted in the lava are 12km high, 25km across spires of lava that are highly alkaline and rich in iridium. I need to find out if the iridium is chemically similar in Chix and Shiva. That amount of iridium is rare on Earth, apart from impact craters.

As for the non-avian dinosaur extiction, I believe it was very slow,(on a life span scale - rapidly geologically) hence the claim that there is a lack of fossil evidence. Impact, dust, climate change would bring about a slow death; grass and plants for the herbivores and herbivores being food for carnivores. Isn't that why big, fierce creatures find it so hard to survive? My query on his point is that absence of proof is not the same as proof of absence; many, many species have evolved and vanished with little or no fossil evidence. We surmise their existence though gaps in evolutionary structure.

Seems plausible to me too; any experts wish to comment?

@Mike 121 You're correct. They're not the same earthquakes. The ones I posted are farther north and of greater magnitude.

http://www.norsardata.no/NDC/bulletins/gbf/lastweek.jpg

Renato: Crater glow at Turrialba MAY result from high temperature fumaroles, heating rock around the vent red-hot; glow is often reported at Momotombo (Nicaragua) for example even though Momotombo hasn't actually erupted since 1905

@Reynir, glad you're on the mend - hang in there.
@Renato 123 - thanks for your additional info from the earlier post, which I missed - I'm not familiar with any of this, just taking it all in and trying to find useful links (and make sense of it all!- my 'vacation reading' is going to be lots of white paper stapled together, printouts. My pile just from Eyja is huge.) My brain is stuffed, but only with fragments of information... ;)) Now to try to put the pieces together while still keeping up with all of you!! Love it.

@Mike 121 Here's a pretty map showing the relationship between Kolbeinsey Ridge and Jan Mayen

http://www.mantleplumes.org/images3/JanMayenFig1_1000.jpg

Back to Eyja, some farmers are starting a first mowing hoping that the second crop will be OK - but concerned about fluorine content. http://mbl.is/mm/frettir/innlent/2010/06/03/fyrsti_slattur_i_oskufjuki/

#122 http://starmon.com/KT_craters.html and http://www.newgeology.us/Shiva.pdf very interesting stuff.

I seem to have hit a bit of a "hot spot" with Chicxulub, I hadn't come across Shiva before and the links provided are great, seems to me that most researchers are agreed that something hit the Earth very hard ~65 ma, but not where or whether single or multiple hits.
I had come across Silverpits off English coast before before, but at that time it was being put over as salt dome rather than impact crater.
Link below gives a summary of simulation model for initial impact energy propagating through the mantle and popping up antipodally off Australia. Would be nice to see an animation of that?
http://www.newgeology.us/presentation35.html

I started this post about an hour ago, but cat sat on key board and wiped out progress then my better half completed the process.

@ stigger, Gordon check google for 'creationism.'

Do with this as you please, folks:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/blog/2010/jun/03/wanted-best-science-…

#133, BirdseyeUSA, oops you beat me to it. I've just been reading the rest of the site, with increasingly raised eyebrows, (Hawaii not a plume site?). Got to the end and realised I'd hit a dose of Creationism. Sorry.

#132 Gordon: so ... we have a new name for a volcano then?

@134 go 'Miss Frito' : ) ( P.S. see below...)

ref. various 'new geology' source posts, I wondered, and then looked for the home page. A visit to www.newgeology.us will also list several other links to be aware of including mantleplumes.org.

@Erik Klemetti (#134) Lol Huh?

The charm of this place is in the way that it gently diffuses controversy. Maybe that quality of calming down and dealing with the inevitable is normal for Volcanology.

Hello all. Haven't disappeared, just glued to the attempt to stop the oil leak. Which leads to a question that someone here may have an answer to. With so much oil coming out of the ground, there must be a void, or at least a lack of pressure, from the source. Could this possibly result in in an earthquake, or in the very least, a collapse of the sea floor above the oil deposit. FYI, earthquakes have happened in the Gulf of Mexico before.
(my name now directs you to where I have posted links to cams along the coast here, during daylight hours of course)

Good question, Dan - hope you get some answers.
Lady E is bidding good morning/evening with a small plume and a pretty pink & blue sky on Thoro cam. so, g'nite/morning...

#134 Erik: You don't have to be a geologist for this: if you dig through layers of daily threads in this blog you won't find a single day where there isn't at least one post with compliments to its contents and (#138) charm.
#137 Just passing by to say good night and didn't quite understand: so, these are links not to be trusted? Please, keep us informed whenever this happens!
Thanks a lot.

@Dan: we're all hoping for answers. Fare thee well, my friend!

@birdseyeUSA [137]

Be careful at mantleplumes.org, it's very easy to lose track of time while reading.

@Dan, Florida [139]

Yah.. I've been glued to the Oil-Cam-Bots too.

The last time I ran the numbers on flow estimates done by the USGS, it was day 35. At that time, the potential void was 4.6 million cubic feet. (using the 1 million gallon a day estimate) That's actually sort of small... only 0.000032 cubic miles. ( 0.00013 cubic km )

124 miles southwest of there, a Mag 5.3 occurred on the continental shelf. I can't remember the year but it was also the same year that a Mag 6.0 (later downgraded to a 5.9) occurred out in the middle of nowhere 200 miles south by southeast in the abyssal plain.

So, in a nutshell, I haven't got a clue... but it seems a bit early to expect related seismic events. I did spend the better part of an evening this week desperately searching for a live helicorder site just to see if there was some sort of harmonic like tremor that could be seen from it.

I've also managed to get a of concern while looking for data on fluid hammers. With a combination of drilling mud, crude oil and water to lift over a distance of 23000+ feet (5000 feet of water, 18,000 feet of well) you need somewhere between 7500 to 11,000 psi. As reported from a ship that cast off from the rig, they reported seeing the mud/crude/water shoot up like a volcano prior to the explosion and fire. This sort of means that it had quite a bit of momentum behind it. When the rig sank, it bent the riser and probably generated a sizable fluid hammer... which is a dynamic overpressure that is dependent on the flow rate and specific gravity. I'm not very good at fluid dynamics, but from what I have pieced together, the dynamic overpressure could have been as high as 600 to 1000 psi.

And this is where I grow concerned...

At the time of the incident, they were working on pouring the casing for the well (cement). In other words it probably had yet to set or achieve full strength, and along comes this blow-out with whatever radical pressure shift occurred... so, what are the chances that the casing was ruptured somewhere near the surface and is flowing into the shallow strata or will soon be flowing once they get a cap on this thing?

D*** what I wouldn't give for good helicorder link...

Short but coherent report on Tungurahua eruption

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthvideo/7802711/Ecuador-volcano-eru…

for a fabulous exhibit of Eyja eruption(s) photos, see http://myndlist.is/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=119

#132, 133, 135 and Birdseye. Apologies, I was following the piece from New Scientist and didn't realise it had been published on a creationist site as well. I had never seen NewGeology before and never deliberately dip my toe into creationism.

Where things on the web are published is often beyond the control of the author; NewGeology may not be a reputable source of scientific data but should we condemn the article wholesale because it is also posted there?

New Scientist judged it to be of sufficient merit to publish and I would agree, 'The significance of the contemporaneous Shiva Impact Structure and Deccan Volcanism at the KT boundary CHATTERJEE, Sankar, Geosciences, Texas Tech Univ, MS Box 41053, Lubbock TX 79409-3191,etc' still stands alone as interesting (to me as a confirmed non-creationist).

@stigger147 New Scientist, wiki's comment - so, as with everything else, taken in consideration...
"As well as covering current events and news from the scientific community, the magazine often features speculative articles, ranging from the technical to the philosophical.
It is not a peer-reviewed scientific journal,[2]"

I should explain that I have come from a professional field which teaches that every belief is valuable to the person who believes it, but I also had a father who was world-known in his scientific field and scrupulous about stating anything as fact that he could not prove himself or be satisfied that others had proved. The joke was that the most you could expect from him was 'a definite maybe.' And that is how I tend to look at things also.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/06/04/easyjet-unveils-ash-detection-syste…

this may be of interest! let's hope it works.

@144 Lurking Thanks for that.

Reports of oil on our beaches so I'm headed out there.

beach cams - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/dashboardcowman/show.html another of my blog names :)

see newest thread for latest on Eyja activity...maybe something coming???

Im just interest in the facts of the bigger picture. Has the sun of our solar system really flipped its polarity in our solar system?, and if so, how does this event, affect whats going on here on earth. Is our sun emitting a higher ammount of nutrinos that could affect weather conditions and cause events such as earthquakes, and sunamies, and increased hurricane actvities. (superstorms). What's the cause? and can it be remedied? and if not, can the people of this planet be better prepared for such evets. ONE THING IS FOR SURE, what ever is going on, THESE EVENTS ARE GLOBAL, and they are increasing. I'd rather be better prepared than caught with my undies around my ankles. The scientific community owes this to the human populis. If these increasing events are random then just say so, DONT just let the average person assume so (THATS DANGEROUS). And if they they are not random then you guies aught to be advising and notifying everyone.

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