Hurricane https://scienceblogs.com/ en Hurricane Nate Updated https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/10/04/hurricane-nate <span>Hurricane Nate Updated</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p><strong>Update Thursday AM</strong></p> <p>As expected, Nate emerged as a named storm over night. The storm is now interacting withland in Central America and is therefore having trouble getting organized. And, as expected given the uncertainty this causes, the forecasts are unclear on future intensity. The most recent National Hurricane Center projection has Nate Maxing out as a much weaker storm than yesterday's projection suggested. And, the center of the expected path of the storm has shifted west and is now centered roughly on New Orleans.</p> <p>After leaving Central America, Nate is expected to pass just over the eastern Yucatan as a tropical storm. That's thea rea of Cancune and the Maya Riviera, which has seen its share of bad storms. Nate will probably be departing that area and moving out over the Gulf, still as a tropical storm, early Saturday morning.</p> <p>Between Saturday morning and Sunday Morning, Nate will have turned into an actual Hurricane, Category I, perhaps with maximum sustained winds of around 75 miles per hour. Then, during the day Sunday, the storm will come ashore with the center somewhere between a point west of New Orleans and a point west of Tallahasse. That would be the center of the storm, not the full effect. </p> <p>The National Weather Service is not yet issuing information on storm surges. </p> <p>When people hear about Nate they say, "Only a Category I, no big deal." I was in a weak Category II/Category I hurricane once. I walked around in it. It seemed like a really strong Nor'easter, not much more. Meanwhile, some 60 miles away, my sister-in-law's house, way up on a hill overlooking the ocean, was 100% covered with the sea. She had seaweed in her attic, crabs in her bathroom, and bluefish in kitchen. All I'm saying is that just because some hurricanes get called "major" does not mean that the other ones are "minor." </p> <p><strong>Update Wed PM:</strong></p> <p>As expected, the intensification projected for this storm has been upgraded a bit but it still likely to stay in the Category 1 range, with landfall on the Gulf coast (tentatively) at around 5PM Sunday, so strong winds etc. affecting the coast starting any time over the weekend.</p> <p>There are now some projected tracks that put the center of the storm right in New Orleans, others that keep it over the Florida panhandle. On one hand it is too early to say, but on the other hand, the storm is forming fairly quickly and will move fairly quickly to make a landfall in just a few days. </p> <p><strong>Original Post:</strong></p> <p>The next named storm in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin will be called Nate. There is currently a tropical depression located not far from Nicaragua that is expected to become a named storm pretty soon. It may pass over or interact with land between now and Friday, but if it does what the experts project, some time between Friday mid day and Saturday PM, it will be over very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, heading mostly north, and turning into a hurricane. It will likely remain a Category I hurricane until making landfall on the Gulf Coast by the end of the day Sunday. Location of landfall of the center of the storm is between some point east of New Orleans and some point north of Tampa, with the general area of Tallahassee being the current, but subject to change, bulls-eye. </p> <p>This is all fairly speculative at the moment. The track seems very likely but it can change. The most important change that could happen is that the storm turns out to be stronger than currently anticipated. I say this simply because unexpected strengthening seems to be association with warm deep waters, which is a fairly new phenomenon. As far as I know, meteorological science is silent on this issue, and this is just my gut feeling. But if a storm doing what this storm is doing is projected as having 80 mph winds near landfall, I'd leave open the possibility of stronger winds closer to 100 mph. If so, the storm would be a weak Category 2. Again, this is just a guess.</p> <p>As indicated in the graphic above, an experimental NWS product, tropical storm force winds could arrive in the keys by late Friday PM, and along the gulf coast near NOLA and the panhandle overnight Saturday. </p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Wed, 10/04/2017 - 09:30</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/atlantic-hurricane" hreflang="en">Atlantic Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/florida-hurricane" hreflang="en">Florida Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-nate" hreflang="en">Hurricane Nate</a></div> </div> </div> <section> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/10/04/hurricane-nate%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 04 Oct 2017 13:30:28 +0000 gregladen 34557 at https://scienceblogs.com Hurricane Maria https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/09/19/hurricane-maria <span>Hurricane Maria</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>As you already know, Hurricane Maria is a Category 5 storm menacing the Leewards, and heading, likely, for Puerto Rico.</p> <p>Please avoid making the mistakes that were made in talking about Irma. There will probably be no Category 5 storm hitting Puerto Rico. The storm will probably be a Category 4 before it hits. So, reporters will sloppily declare that "a category 5 storm is heading for Puerto Rico" then later Rush Limberger will say "Look there was never no such storm, see?" and so on.</p> <p>But, a Category 4 storm is still nothing to sneeze into, and Puerto Rico and the other island in this storm's path are in big trouble. </p> <p>As we wait for that to develop further, let's talk a bit about predicting hurricane seasons. A lot of people are arguing about whether or not global warming means more, or bigger, or whatever, Atlantic hurricanes. (Short answer: there are probably already more hurricanes in the Atlantic, and bigger ones, but they are hard to count because they are in fact rare events, and science says that there will likely be more in the future). One of the dumber counter arguments to science suggesting that there may be bigger storms, or more of them, is this: You can't even predict the weather for next weekend, so what the heck, right? </p> <p>The counter argument to that is this: Ok, fine, we don't know very accurately what the weather is going to be like next weekend, but what would you say if I told you that we can do a pretty good job of telling, before the hurricane season starts, how many named storms there will be? Huh? Wouldn't that be amazing?</p> <p>Turns out we can. And the fact that we can suggests that we should be trusting the models, generally, and therefore, expecting more and bigger hurricanes. </p> <p>I looked at the predictions made in several recent years by several groups that do this prediction, and found out that the total average wrongness averaging across all of them is down near one hurricane, with the range of wrongness being between -8 and 4, but with most of the predictions being within just a few one way or another.</p> <p>First, a quick look at the number of named tropical storms in the Atlantic per year:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/09/Named_Storms_per_year_Atlantic.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/09/Named_Storms_per_year_Atlantic-610x343.png" alt="" width="610" height="343" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24532" /></a></p> <p>People will tell you there is no trend here, but as you can see, about 44% of the variation seen in the number of storms over time is accounted for by year, so there is a good argument that there is an increasing trend. One might argue that back in the 70s we missed some Hurricanes. That, I do not buy, but if you need to believe that, you can see there is still a trend from 1980 on. So there is an increase.</p> <p>But I digress. Here's the point I wanted to make with this graph. The number of hurricanes in a given year varies quite a bit, from 4 to 28 over this time period (and less over the most recent years). So, a method of prediction that gets within two or three in either direction is pretty good. </p> <p>The number of named storms (many, usually most, of which will be hurricanes) that will happen in a give season in the Atlantic is predicted with reasonable accuracy by several groups. Here's a chart showing several different prediction groups compared to reality.</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/09/Atlantic_Tropical_Storm_Predictions.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/09/Atlantic_Tropical_Storm_Predictions-610x343.png" alt="" width="610" height="343" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24533" /></a></p> <p>The light blue line is the actual number, and you can see that except for 2011 and 2012, the number of storms predicted by various groups, and the number that occur, are very similar. Let's assume 2011 and 2012 are strange years and arbitrarily ignore them (I know, this would normally be cheating but we'll come back to that in a minute). </p> <p>Looking only at those years, one prediction undershot by 4, one prediction undershot by 3, and 7 overshot by 3 or 4. The other 20 predictions were off by no more than two storms. </p> <p>So, why is it OK to fudge the data like that? Well, it isn't really, but the last two years of predictions have been off by one or fewer storms on average, and I'm assuming the predictions are getting better and better. In other words, if I were to lay odds on predicting three years in a row a few years in the future, I'd bet that the average difference between all the predictions an the actual observations would be less than one named storm, and I'd win that bet. For this reason I don't care so much about older data.</p> <p>Notice that I'm only using predictions made prior to the start of the season, not later updates which some groups do provide.</p> <p>For this year, we've had 13 named storms so far, and all the various groups predicted 14. There is plenty of time to have a couple more storms, so likely, this year will be a bit more active than expected, but just by a couple of storms. </p> <p>Back to Maria for a moment, you may be wondering if this storm will hit the coast along the lower 48. It is possible, it is too early to tell, but history and the models that exist so far both suggest that it probably will not, but stay tuned. </p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:16</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/global-warming-1" hreflang="en">Global Warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-maria" hreflang="en">Hurricane Maria</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricanes-and-global-warming" hreflang="en">Hurricanes and global warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/maria" hreflang="en">Maria</a></div> </div> </div> <section> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/09/19/hurricane-maria%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Tue, 19 Sep 2017 14:16:01 +0000 gregladen 34526 at https://scienceblogs.com New Research on Assessing Climate Change Impact on Extreme Weather https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/31/new-research-on-assessing-climate-change-impact-on-extreme-weather <span>New Research on Assessing Climate Change Impact on Extreme Weather</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Three statisticians go hunting for rabbit. They see a rabbit. The first statistician fires and misses, her bullet striking the ground below the beast. The second statistician fires and misses, their bullet striking a branch above the lagomorph. The third statistician, a lazy frequentist, says, "We got it!"</p> <p>OK, that joke was not 1/5th as funny as any of XKCD's excellent jabs at the frequentist-bayesian debate, but hopefully this will warm you up for a somewhat technical discussion on how to decide if observations about the weather are at all explainable with reference to climate change.</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/frequentists_vs_bayesians.png"><img src="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/frequentists_vs_bayesians.png" alt="" width="468" height="709" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-24458" /></a><br /> [<a href="https://xkcd.com/1132/">source</a>]</p> <p>We are having this discussion here and now for two reasons. One is that <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/24/harvey-the-hurricane-is-a-significant-event/">Hurricane Harvey</a> was (is) a very serious weather event in Texas and Louisiana that may have been <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/28/harvey-the-hurricane-truly-climate-change-enahnced/">made worse by the effects of anthropogenic global warming</a>, and there may be another really nasty hurricane coming (<a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/30/possible-hurricane-irma/">Irma</a>). The other is that Michael Mann, Elisabeth Lloyd and Naomi Oreskes have just published a paper that examines so-called frequentist vs so-called Bayesian statistical approaches to the question of attributing weather observations to climate change.</p> <p>Mann, Michael, ElisabethLloyd, Naomi Oreskes. 2017. <em><a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MLOClimaticChange17.pdf">Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events; the case for an alternative (Baesian) approach</a></em>. Climate Change (2017) 144:131-142. </p> <p>First, I'll give you the abstract of the paper then I'll give you my version of how these approaches are different, and why I'm sure the authors are correct.</p> <blockquote><p>The conventional approach to detecting and attributing climate change impacts on<br /> extreme weather events is generally based on frequentist statistical inference wherein a null hypothesis of no influence is assumed, and the alternative hypothesis of an influence is accepted only when the null hypothesis can be rejected at a sufficiently high (e.g., 95% or Bp = 0.05^) level of confidence. Using a simple conceptual model for the occurrence of extreme weather events, we<br /> show that if the objective is to minimize forecast error, an alternative approach wherein likelihoods<br /> of impact are continually updated as data become available is preferable. Using a simple proof-of-concept, we show that such an approach will, under rather general assumptions, yield more<br /> accurate forecasts. We also argue that such an approach will better serve society, in providing a<br /> more effective means to alert decision-makers to potential and unfolding harms and avoid<br /> opportunity costs. In short, a Bayesian approach is preferable, both empirically and ethically.</p></blockquote> <p>Frequentist statistics is what you learned in your statistics class, if you are not an actual statistician. I want to know if using Magic Plant Dust on my tomatoes produces more tomatoes. So, I divide my tomato patch in half, and put a certain amount of Magic Plant Dust on one half. I then keep records of how many tomatoes, and of what mass, the plants yield. I can calculate the number of tomatoes and the mass of the tomatoes for each plant, and use the average and variation I observe for each group to get two sets of numbers. My 'null hypothesis' is that adding the magic dust has no effect. Therefore, the resulting tomato yield from the treated plants should be the statistically the same as from the untreated plants. I can pick any of a small number of statistical tools, all of which are doing about the same thing, to come up with a test statistic and a "p-value" that allows me to make some kind of standard statement like "the treated plants produced more tomatoes" and to claim that the result is statistically significant.</p> <p>If the difference, though, is very small, I might not get a good statistical result. So, maybe I do the same thing for ten years in a row. Then, I have repeated the experiment ten times, so my statistics will be more powerful and I can be more certain of an inference. Over time, I get sufficient sample sizes. Eventually I conclude that Magic Plant Dust might have a small effect on the plants, but not every year, maybe because other factors are more important, like how much water they get or the effects of tomato moth caterpillars. </p> <p>In an alternative Bayesian universe, prior to collecting any data on plant growth, I do something very non-statistical. I read the product label. The label says, "This product contains no active ingredients. Will not affect tomato plants. This product is only for use as a party favor and has no purpose."</p> <p>Now, I have what a Bayesian statistician would call a "prior." I have information that could be used, if I am clever, to produce a statistical model of the likely outcome of the planned experiments. In this case, the likely outcome is that there won't be a change.</p> <p>Part of the Bayesian approach is to employ a statistical technique based on Bayes Theorem to incorporate a priori assumptions or belief and new observations to reach towards a conclusion.</p> <p>In my view, the Bayesian approach is very useful in situations where we have well understood and hopefully multiple links between one or more systems and the system we are interested in. We may not know all the details that relate observed variation in one system and observed variation in another, but we know that there is a link, that it should be observable, and perhaps we know the directionality or magnitude of the effect.</p> <p>The relationship between climate change and floods serves as an example. Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in warmer sea surface temperatures and warmer air. It would be very hard to make an argument from the physics of the atmosphere that this does not mean that more water vapor will be carried by the air. If there is more water vapor in the air, there is likely to be more rain. Taken as a Bayesian prior, the heating of the Earth's surface means more of the conditions that would result in floods, even if the details of when, how much, and where are vague at this level.</p> <p>A less certain but increasingly appreciated effect of climate change is the way trade winds and the jet stream move around the planet. Without going into details, climate change over the last decade or two has probably made it more likely that large storm systems stall. Storms that may have moved quickly through an area are now observed to slow down. If a storm will normally drop one inch of rain on the landscape over which it passes, but now slows down but rains at the same rate, perhaps 3 inches of rain will be dropped (over a shorter distance). What would have been a good watering of all the lawns is now a localized flood. </p> <p>That is also potentially a Bayesian prior. Of special importance is that these two Bayesian priors imply change in the same direction. Since in this thought experiment we are thinking about floods, we can see that these two prior assumptions together suggest that a post-climate change weather would include more rain falling from the sky in specific areas.</p> <p>There are other climate change related factors that suggest increased activity of storms. The atmosphere should have more energy, thus more energetic storms. In some places there should more of the kind of wind patterns that spin up certain kinds of storms. It is possible that the relationship between temperature of the air at different altitudes, up through the troposphere and into the lower stratosphere, has changed so that large storms are likely to get larger than they otherwise might.</p> <p>There is very little about climate change that implies the reverse; Though there may be a few subsets of storm related weather that would be reduced with global warming, most changes are expected to result in more storminess, more storms, more severe storms, or something.</p> <p>So now we have the question, has climate change caused any kind of increase in storminess?</p> <p>I'd like to stipulate that there was a kind of turning point in our climate around 1979, before which we had a couple of decades of storminess being at a certain level, and after which, we have a potentially different level. This is also a turning point in measured surface heat. In, say, 1970 plus or minus a decade, it was possible to argue that global warming is likely but given the observations and data at the time, it was hard to point to much change (though we now know, looking back with better data for the previous centuries, that is was actually observable). But, in 2008, plus or minus a decade, it was possible to point to widespread if anecdotal evidence of changes in storm frequency, patterns, effects, as well as other climate change effects, not the least of which was simply heat.</p> <p>I recently watched the documentary, "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1635651085/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1635651085&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=be6965cc94049355fc7e70faba2810f5">An Inconvenient Sequel</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=1635651085" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />." This is a fairly misunderstood film. It is not really part two of Al Gore's original "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670062723/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0670062723&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=5faf59d419cdee5f23bbfcc3d64d357f">An Inconvenient Truth</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0670062723" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />." The latter was really Al Gore's argument about climate change, essentially presented by him. "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1635651085/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1635651085&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=be6965cc94049355fc7e70faba2810f5">An Inconvenient Sequel</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=1635651085" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />" was made by independent film makers with no direct input by Gore with respect to contents and production, though it is mostly about him, him talking, him making his point, etc. But I digress. Here is the salient fact associated with these two movies.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670062723/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0670062723&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=5faf59d419cdee5f23bbfcc3d64d357f">An Inconvenient Truth</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0670062723" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" /> came out in May 2006, so it is based mainly on information available in 2005 and before. In it, there are examples of major climate change effects, including Katrina, but it seems like the total range of effects is more or less explicated almost completely. When <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1635651085/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1635651085&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=be6965cc94049355fc7e70faba2810f5">An Inconvenient Sequel</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=1635651085" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />l came out a few weeks ago, a solid 10+ years had passed and the list of actual climate effects noted in the movie was a sampling, not anything close to a full explication, of the things that had happened over recent years. Dozens of major flooding, storming, drying, and deadly heat events had occurred of which only a few of each were mentioned, because there was just so much stuff.</p> <p>My point is that there is a reasonable hypothesis based on anecdotal observation (at least) that many aspects of weather in the current decade, or the last 20 years, or since 1979 as I prefer, are different in frequency and/or severity than before, because of climate change.</p> <p>A frequentist approach does not care why I think a certain hypothesis is workable. I could say "I hypothesize that flies can spontaneously vanish with a half life of 29 minutes" and I could say "I hypothesis that if a fly lays eggs on a strawberry there will later be an average of 112 maggots." The same statistical tests will be usable, the same philosophy of statistics will be applied. </p> <p>A Bayesian approach doesn't technically care what I think either, but what I think a priori is actually relevant to the analysis. I might for example know that the average fly lays 11 percent of her body mass in one laying of eggs, and that is enough egg mass to produce about 90-130 maggots (I am totally making this up) so that observational results that are really small (like five maggots) or really large (like 1 million maggots) are very unlikely a priori, and, results between 90 and 130 are a priori very likely.</p> <p>So, technically, a Bayesian approach is different because it includes something that might be called common sense, but really, is an observationally derived statistical parameter that is taken very seriously by the statistic itself. But, philosophically, it is a little like the pitcher of beer test.</p> <p>I've mentioned this before but I'll refresh your memory. Consider an observation that makes total sense based on reasonable prior thinking, but the standard frequentist approach fails to reject the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is that there are more tornadoes from, say, 1970 to the present than there were between 1950 and 1970. This graph suggests this is true...</p> <div style="width: 650px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2013/05/Tornadoes_over_long_term149520253.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2013/05/Tornadoes_over_long_term149520253-640x440.png" alt="" width="640" height="440" class="size-large wp-image-16703" /></a> Annual number of tornadoes for the period 1916-1995; the dashed line connecting solid circles shows the raw data, the red heavy solid line is the result of smoothing. Also shown in the green light solid line is the number of tornado days (i.e., days with one or more tornadoes) per year. </div> <p>... but because the techniques of observation and measuring tornado frequency have changed over time, nobody believes the graph to be good data. But, it may not be bad data. In other words, the questions about the graph do not inform us of the hypothesis, but the graph is suggestive.</p> <p>So, I take a half dozen meteorologists who are over 55 years old (so they've seen things, done things) out for a beer. The server is about to take our order, and I interrupt. I ask all the meteorologists to answer the question ... using this graph and whatever else you know, are there more tornadoes in the later time interval or not? Write your answer down on this piece of paper, I say, and don't share your results. But, when we tally them up, if and only if you all have the same exact answer (all "yes" or all "no") then this pitcher of beer is on me.</p> <p>Those are quasi-Bayesian conditions (given that these potential beer drinkers have priors in their heads already, and that the graph is suggestive if not conclusive), but more importantly, there is free beer at stake.</p> <p>They will all say "yes" and there will be free beer.</p> <p>OK, back to the paper.</p> <p>Following the basic contrast between frequentist and Bayesian approaches, the authors produce competing models, one based on the former, the other on the latter. "In the conventional, frequentist approach to detection and attribution, we adopt a null hypothesis of an equal probability of active and inactive years ... We reject it in favor of the alternative hypothesis of a bias toward more active years ... only when we are able to achieve rejection of H0 at a high... level of confidence"</p> <p>In the bayesian version, a probability distribution that assumes a positive (one directional) effect on the weather is incorporated, as noted above, using Bayes theorem.</p> <p>Both methods work to show that there is a link between climate change and effect, in this modeled scenario, eventually, but the frequentist approach is very much more conservative and thus, until the process is loaded up with a lot of data, more likely to be wrong, while the bayesian approach correctly identifies the relationship and does so more efficiently.</p> <p>The authors argue that the bayesian method is more likely to accurately detect the link between cause and effect, and this is almost certainly correct.</p> <p>This is what this looks like: Frank Frequency, weather commenter on CNN says, "We can't attribute Hurricane Harvey, or really, any hurricane, to climate change until we have much more data and that may take 100 years because the average number of Atlantic hurricanes to make landfall is only about two per year."</p> <p>Barbara Bayes, weather commenter on MSNBC, says, "What we know about the physics of the atmosphere tells us to expect increased rainfall, and increased energy in storms, because of global warming, so when we see a hurricane like Harvey it is really impossible to separate out this prior knowledge when we are explaining the storms heavy rainfall and rapid strengthening. The fact that everywhere we can measure possible climate change effects on storms, the storms seem to be acting as expected under climate change, makes this link very likely."</p> <p>I hasten to add that this paper is not about hurricanes, or severe weather per se, but rather, on what statistical philosophy is better for investigating claims linking climate change and weather. I asked the paper's lead author, Michael Mann (author of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231177860/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0231177860&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=45a25470be4c56dbed94e91ad8eb3612">The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0231177860" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231152558/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0231152558&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=099a968ebfdc32f63298abaaa53d5d2c">The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0231152558" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1465433643/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1465433643&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=grlasbl0a-20&amp;linkId=a75e2ce7eaa3a6b1147ae2b40c4a40e0">Dire Predictions, 2nd Edition: Understanding Climate Change</a><img src="//ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&amp;l=am2&amp;o=1&amp;a=1465433643" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />), about Hurricane Harvey specifically. He told me, "As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, I’m not particularly fond of the standard detection &amp; attribution approach for an event like Hurricane Harvey for a number of reasons. First of all, the question isn’t whether or not climate change made Harvey happen, but how it modified the impacts of Harvey. For one thing, climate change-related Sea Level Rise was an important factor here, increasing the storm surge by at least half a foot." Mann recalls the approach taken by climate scientist Kevin Trenberth, who "talks about how warmer sea surface temperatures mean more moisture in the atmosphere (about 7% per degree C) and more rainfall. That’s basic physics and thermodynamics we can be quite certain of."</p> <p>The authors go a step farther, in that they argue that there is an ethical consideration at hand. In a sense, an observer or commenter can decide to become a frequentist, and even one with a penchant for very low p-values, with the purpose of writing off the effects of climate change. (They don't say that but this is a clear implication, to me.) We see this all the time, and it is in fact a common theme in the nefarious politicization of the climate change crisis.</p> <p>Or, an observer can chose to pay attention to the rather well developed priors, the science that provides several pathways linking climate change and severe weather or other effects, and then, using an appropriate statistical approach ... the one you use when you know stuff ... be more likely to make a reasonable and intelligent evaluation, and to get on to the business of finding out in more detail how, when, where, and how much each of these effects has taken hold or will take hold.</p> <p>The authors state that one "... might therefore argue that scientists should err on the side of caution and take steps to ensure that we are not underestimating climate risk and/or underestimating the human component of observed changes. Yet, as several workers have shown ...the opposite is the case in prevailing practice. Available evidence shows a tendency among climate scientists to underestimate key parameters of anthropogenic climate change, and thus, implicitly, to understate the risks related to that change"</p> <p>While I was in contact with Dr. Mann, I asked him another question. His group at Penn State makes an annual prediction of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and of the several different such annual stabs at this problem, the PSU group tends to do pretty well. So, I asked him how this season seemed to be going, which partly requires reference to the Pacific weather pattern ENSO (El Nino etc). He told me</p> <blockquote><p>We are ENSO neutral but have very warm conditions in the main development region of the Tropcs (which is a major reason that Irma is currently intensifying so rapidly). Based on those attributes, we predicted before the start of the season (in May) that there would be between 11 and 20 storms with a best estimate of 15 named storms. We are currently near the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and with Irma have reached 9 named storms, with another potentially to form in the Gulf over the next several days. So I suspect when<br /> all is said and done, the total will be toward the upper end of our predicted range.</p></blockquote> <p>I should point out that Bayesian statistics are not new, just not as standard as one might expect, partly because, historically, this method has been hard to compute. So, frequency based methods have decades of a head start, and statistical methodology tends to evolve slowly.</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Thu, 08/31/2017 - 14:20</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/climate-change-0" hreflang="en">Climate Change</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/global-warming-1" hreflang="en">Global Warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/attribution" hreflang="en">attribution</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/bayesian-statistics" hreflang="en">Bayesian statistics</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/extreme-weather" hreflang="en">extreme weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/frequency-statistics" hreflang="en">frequency statistics</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/harvey" hreflang="en">Harvey</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/lloyd" hreflang="en">lloyd</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/mann" hreflang="en">Mann</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/oreskes" hreflang="en">oreskes</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-categories field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Categories</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/channel/social-sciences" hreflang="en">Social Sciences</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485261" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504234198"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>People experience climate change, this is earth change by good observance, experience, registration and comparison with historical data. What do statistics tell about that?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485261&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="JlNGaDUlUvvTht6RM2rqe9HTpEQtbGtkBk5mtZfHunE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 31 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485261">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485262" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504253132"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Hn, take 2...</p> <p>This is a post worth thoroughly mulling over before responding the the content, but before I go to my (Australian) bed I can't resist noting how the XKCD cartoon reminds me of the old Twilight Zone episode where the night sky lights up and people are amazed, and initially oblivious to the fact of a supernovaed sun on the other side of the planet. The progress of the episode was chilling to my young mind, and I suspect that it has made me conscious of how humans are refractory to really understanding the trains that hurtle toward them.</p> <p>That episode also helps to point out that one needn't construct a lying neutrino detector for those on the night side of the planet to figure out if the sun's exploded - a window would do the job better...</p> <p>Of course the physics pendants here would point out that our sun's too small to go supernova, and if it somehow magically did we'd probably know that it had by the fact of our deaths within a few seconds after the radiation front hit the planet - night-side or no...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485262&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="_dwU6Hx8oZhMbSm7ohU3D18cUnu0KPPXp7fo0ObGaN0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Bernard J. (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485262">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485263" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504254007"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Bah, it was <i>The Outer Limits</i>...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485263&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="u4m9Zgl98ZGn5JvMQ8Jf30CTtS37j6d6lHHQhNA4U5Q"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Bernard J. (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485263">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485264" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504254504"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Speaking of, "The Hundred Days of the Dragon" is suddenly somewhat apposite...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485264&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="zVhCjyD3YhmAv4gKPYUuHnrDZaRoj1RrlmE6cVlqSBU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Bernard J. (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485264">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485265" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504258242"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p> I can pick any of a small number of statistical tools, all of which are doing about the same thing, to come up with a test statistic and a “p-value” that allows me to make some kind of standard statement like “the treated plants produced more tomatoes” and to claim that the result is statistically significant.</p></blockquote> <p>You can find a p-value, but one of the reasons we have so many difficulties with studies that can't be replicated is the misunderstanding of p-values. They do not represent any amount of evidence against a null hypothesis (nor do they provide information in favor of an alternative hypothesis). They are conditional probabilities: the probability of obtaining a measure (usually a test statistic of some kind) as extreme or more extreme as the one in from your sample, <b> assuming the null hypothesis is exactly correct</b>. </p> <p>The intended use (from the days of Fisher) was that they could serve a tool to indicate when more investigation was warranted. Neyman and Pearson began cementing the use of p-values in making binary "do not reject"/"reject" decisions during their development of hypothesis testing. </p> <blockquote><p>I should point out that Bayesian statistics are not new, just not as standard as one might expect, partly because, historically, this method has been hard to compute. So, frequency based methods have decades of a head start, and statistical methodology tends to evolve slowly.</p></blockquote> <p>Very true. Add to that the fact that statistics is so often taught in departments by people who have had only passing exposure to statistical methods (we used to have a faculty member in another department who advised students that it was completely acceptable to remove data values they viewed as outliers in order to obtain "significant results", for two reasons: "Nobody likes negative results" and "It's standard practice." Some faculty make things better through their work: he made things better by retiring.)</p> <p>I'll leave by pointing out that "Bayesian statistics" could be replaced by "robust, resistant, and non-parametric statistics" in your comment and it would remain true.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485265&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="tU4eGI7hziQzEzISU5ylW3G8ORzwzBYPZ0FYo5NjhUU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485265">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485266" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504268036"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p> Without going into details, climate change over the last decade or two has probably made it more likely that large storm systems stall.</p></blockquote> <p>Please go into detail.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485266&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="J3nnufDAcnV3HelMge9YVD2jBRRSgkl2A-L-jLlUnLE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485266">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485267" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504278615"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gilbert, it has to do with the more frequent formation of quasi resonant waves in the jet streams caused by accelerated warming in the Arctic. The jet streams and associated trade wind systems get curvey and slow down, so it is easier for a storm leaving the tropics to run into a stalling feature rather than to get swept away. Sandy did the same thing, roughly, as Harvey.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485267&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="vq0KID3IUZKqZii3aPrApZksStA0zJoQ7Tr6s5JEiEM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485267">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485268" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504280644"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>THX, Greg. So it is down to the arctic warming faster than the rest of us and this reduces the *clash* of air masses thus wind. So we should see less from blizzards, tornadoes, and maby even landfalling hurricanes.</p> <p>I'd call that a win -- A milder, gentler global climate where food can be grown at higher lattitudes and heating bills are reduced. It becomes cooler in the low lattitudes due to cloud cover and warmer up north and down south. There is the caveat that sea level may rise. Venice adapted.</p> <blockquote><p>Since people are often naturally curious about the future of the ice age cycle, the reality bears repeating: we broke it.</p></blockquote> <p><a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/01/we-narrowly-missed-a-new-ice-age-and-now-we-wont-see-one-for-a-long-time/">https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/01/we-narrowly-missed-a-new-ice-ag…</a></p> <p>Carbon may have been good. I'd call that a win for most; Ice ages aren't all Ray Romano with a spritz of nut-chasing paleo squirrel on top.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485268&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ol4WZgr77ZyIrU6R-QN5kJA9A4QLBiY7VkeKsjz3D0I"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485268">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485269" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504282943"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gilbert, no, there is no reduction if a clash. There is no clash. </p> <p>This does not affect tropical storm generation. </p> <p>This does increase flooding rain events so far by about 300% in the upper Midwest, and to similar levels elsewhere. </p> <p>This caused the California drought. </p> <p>It is part if the reasons for the E coast experiencing multiple major blizzards per year instead of a major one every few years</p> <p>No, sorry, no good news here at all. </p> <p>Regarding g the ice age, we crossed out of the possible ice age zone before we hit 350 ppm. As we near an inevidible doubling of CO2 we are approaching catastrophic climate change.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485269&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="lqjmpBSGYG4tZ2BOAjHXv7XLlJUxsYLhCqtBtCx9ZMw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485269">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485270" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504297019"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Hot/cold visualized:<br /><a href="https://xkcd.com/1379/">https://xkcd.com/1379/</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485270&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="JzhTtgn0fDWlF65uCJ5fTUehCU-DPPOiLG80dD9MTSk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="" content="Obstreperous Applesauce">Obstreperous A… (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485270">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485271" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504322281"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gilbert </p> <blockquote><p>Carbon may have been good. I’d call that a win for most; Ice ages aren’t all Ray Romano with a spritz of nut-chasing paleo squirrel on top.</p></blockquote> <p>If this makes it I will produce an enlargement of Greg's assessment which scotches your idea of nothing but good coming from a GHG energised temperature climb and hydrological cycle. Cast your eyes further afield and the events in Asia right now make the effects of Harvey look almost like a sideshow.</p> <p>But then I sense somebody dropping by to argue from ideology.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485271&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cpPK5P499Z0gKD0Zkc3MdZweJA1OOFoQp85kzebWiPc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Lionel A (not verified)</span> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485271">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485272" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504341812"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Really interesting and well-written post, Greg. :)</p> <p>Bayes is very (perhaps universally?) useful, very powerful, extremely logical, poorly understood and generally reviled by people who do not like its conclusions. Seen this categorical rejection in Historical Jesus discussions and now we will likely see it with climate deniers as their statistical sophistry becomes even less persuasive.</p> <p>It is my layman's understanding that a Bayes equation will distill down to a number - the likelihood of the experimental question being true. Any idea what that number works out to be with Dr Mann's exercise?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485272&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="aglTCdt-Sjg3Gpwsz8ZxLITeDqdwlqgtB8vO3V8Cdhs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gingerbaker (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485272">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485273" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504354060"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You can click through to the paper and see. It is not a number, because the authors applied both statistical approaches to a range of data, so they end up with a gazillion numbers and a nice graph.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485273&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="OmqhoWAVfcWn9RsYWEjz5oQdHdmuAXjAQ5YM4dY-Ouc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485273">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485274" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504360906"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Lionel A, I was attempting to 'cast your eyes further afield' where I found Asia's monsoon to be the strongest since fifteen years ago. I also came across this:</p> <blockquote><p>The study, published Wednesday in Science Advances, used state-of-the-art climate models to project potential future heat and humidity in South Asia, already one of the warmest regions of the world. Hot weather's most deadly effects result from a combination of high temperature and high humidity, called a wet-bulb temperature. A temperature of 94 degrees Fahrenheit (34.4 degrees Celsius) and 80% humidity produces a wet-bulb or “feels like” temperature of 129 degrees Fahrenheit (53.9 degrees Celsius) on the NOAA National Weather Service Heat Index. This is considered extremely dangerous without some way to cool down.</p> <p>At a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius or <b>167 degrees Fahrenheit</b> “feels like” (100 degrees Fahrenheit with 85% humidity for example), the human body cannot cool itself enough to survive more than a few hours.</p></blockquote> <p><a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/south-asia-heat-waves-temperature-rise-global-warming-climate-change/">http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/south-asia-heat-waves-temper…</a> </p> <p>Of course they are obviously misspoken. Having used a sling psycrometer in the past, I recognize the terminology of *wet bulb <b>depression</b> and its relation to absolute humidity and dew point when considered along side the dry bulb temperature. The statement is gibberish.167 F?? welcome to Alabama where we safely cook steak, pork, and poultry by hanging it upside down in the shade. </p> <p>But, considering the 94 degrees Fahrenheit (34.4 degrees Celsius) and 80% humidity -- I can't imagine the kind of cap of the tropopause strong enough to prevent convective storms under those conditions. Maybe if the models were right and the heat is supposed to be greatest in the mid levels of the atmosphere would this occure; but I can't help but notice, just like the missing heat in the ocean, that those layers aren't really warming that much, if at all.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485274&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="6oaoYxV3IwQPJYxbiSNiLGP3a3v4a8FmJHorue4WVVM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485274">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485275" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504363059"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>According to my analysis of predictions given to Kees de Haar, psychic medium, in the period 1984 - 2005 a 100 percent relation exists between the rising number and intensity of heavy hurricanes and storms in this period of time and climate change. I shall not be amazed that the direct relation between the rise of intensifying hurricanes and storms and climate change will be established by bèta-scientists within short. More predictions of De Haar have been established already by bêta science. Like inter alia the decomposition process of glaciers world wide, the Arctic, and the Antarctic.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485275&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="5Sab5z9r4u_VVPRJRG-WEO5MBytjQdkl-Qu8OKljz4k"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485275">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485276" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504365717"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"According to my analysis of predictions given to Kees de Haar, psychic medium, in the period 1984 – 2005 a 100 percent relation "</p> <p>You are a monumental idiot.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485276&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ouquLiAm41JLOhkzWhLlVbvQBmc-XomQAtbZSzL6RV0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485276">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485277" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504369151"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p> The article also notes that the "absolute highest dew point" ever recorded in the world was 95°F in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, which, with an air temperature of 108°F, produced a "theoretical" heat index of 176°F.</p></blockquote> <p><a href="http://thevane.gawker.com/this-is-why-the-heat-index-is-so-important-1609195413">http://thevane.gawker.com/this-is-why-the-heat-index-is-so-important-16…</a></p> <p>Hmm. It's treason then.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485277&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="veO8XeUl1cFaqOVU_wep6d05FXP3jRhb_OMoNUThi88"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485277">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485278" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504438475"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Just downloaded the paper and skimmed it, so no serious comments yet, but a couple comments (if it's okay?)</p> <p>It's a little disconcerting to see the discussion of p-values in general, and a seeming (again, I've only skimmed it) statement of use of values as high as 10%. P-values alone are not good indicators of much of anything of interest.</p> <p>The choice of a one sided (greater incidents of serious weather) alternative is always interesting. Here is makes the assumption that changes will lead to an increase -- that may be a good assumption based on the physics, but if so that should be made (more) clear. </p> <p>Finally, a statistical point: the hypothesis that states there is no change at all will never be true -- for this and many other reasons, statistical hypotheses should always be interpreted as descriptions rather than strict fact -- and this is one of the primary reasons we shouldn't simply say "reject" or "fail to reject". There should be some discussion of the estimated size of the effect regardless of the result. This seems to be somewhat addressed in the discussion of "convergence" -- I hope there is some more detailed discussion than I've seen in my fast read.</p> <p>And, true for both frequentist and Bayesian testing, the validity of all this work depends on the correctness of assumptions. Since this is a simulation, we need to believe that they've taken all of the relevant background into account when the time series were generated. </p> <p>I didn't see it: do you know whether they posted their code anywhere?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485278&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="dZsrIPHTvOy0j0k4ZVFZ2ydDhmNu-oX_C2nxcq-gBPk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485278">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <div class="indented"> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485279" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504439282"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://jim-stone.staff.shef.ac.uk/BookBayes2012/BayesRuleCode.html">http://jim-stone.staff.shef.ac.uk/BookBayes2012/BayesRuleCode.html</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485279&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2Jrl7K-r176DaqYSH8gQHMKMUzxArv9zcgU7hWRkrOg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485279">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/1485278#comment-1485278" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en"></a> by <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span></p> </footer> </article> </div> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485280" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504440386"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Will look at that when I get home. Does that have the code for the simulation paper?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485280&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="57XhYBU5D8GpAyIoqwyl5ypHwbGNubCUranb6CFMcUk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485280">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <div class="indented"> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485281" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504441131"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Probably not, but it probably isn't hard to get.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485281&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="eKgaFqhuPYQnqUQV_f6XLrz8O77Lrz8e22-120nqHKg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485281">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/1485280#comment-1485280" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en"></a> by <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span></p> </footer> </article> </div> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485282" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504452791"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Dean, look in your own mirror.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485282&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Aj-SCQdKcXmBg9mHWnKbUXwK86Y968_NqTrYK9tAlQ0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485282">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485283" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504455331"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gerrit, provide scientific evidence in favor of any psychic work -- and bit from any of the fake journals that push it. </p> <p>There is a simple reason you determined there is a perfect relationship presented in the ramblings of your favorite quack: you want one to be there. </p> <p>Want to be taken seriously? Leave the psychic bullcrap out of posts. There are no gullible people here for you to scam.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485283&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="0tix_HZJdhLNEAMEe6IhSop6rZ__ztk7ulXBwOc3XGA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 03 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485283">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485284" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504519006"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In October, November 2017 De apocalyps van de aarde in vijf bedrijven, de in gang gezette grote ommekeer van de aarde, voorspellingen van de geleidegeesten van God aan Kees de Haar, medium' will be published.<br /> It is a three volume stud ,about 'the apocalypse of the earth in five stages, the great change of earth on its way, predictions of guiding spirits from God given to Kees de Haar, medium'.<br /> This study of 85 documented séances of Kees de Haar, medium (Netherlands) in the period 1984 - 2005 consists three books. Book II, Bronnen (Sources) contains all séances with lemma's (lemmata). Book I, Hoofdwerk (the main work)carefully documents and analyses the five stages, inclusive a description of hits of the predictions, failures of the predictions and predictions of which the outcome is still unknown. The five phases are: 1. economic and financial crises; 2. climate change = earth change; 3. new diseases; 4. wars and terror and attacks of terrorists; 5 refugees, and specific parts about God, his predictions and the causes of God's warnings. Book I also contains the letters sent to official organizations worldwide to warn them about the decomposition processes of glaciers, the Arctic and the Antarctic and it contains a detailed description of these processes, which processes have been confirmed later by NASA and beta scientists. Book III Bewijs en Tegenbewijs (Evidence and Rebuttal) positions the visual reality in relation to the paranormal and underlines the value of psychic research. All sources have been mentioned. Lists of literature and of persons mentioned are part of the Books as well as numerous notes. The study fulfils the conditions of a scientific thesis. Scientific recommendations are part of the book. A publisher known for his scientific publications characterizes this study as impressive. The books invite scientists to do further scientific examination. The study is transparent, open and based upon the need to give exact details for reasons of verification and or falsification. Knowledge of Dutch is required, because that is the language of the séances, received in the Netherlands, although Book I and Book III also contain parts, written in English. Fortunately many people, who master Dutch as well as English live all over the globe. The time of silence is over, it is time to speak. The study is part of a long tradition of apocalyptic literature and foreshadows the not unlikely outlooks of a new era.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485284&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="QhITqAyTKO0Ub5dYb_5V7UFohWuqAMQ575VA_Ry07xQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485284">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485285" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504520995"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>So you have nothing that is valid about your psychic. No surprise there.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485285&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ibNYeoloyH7x_YxzBzvbiTtDsuiEwzxkrPS0nWLhIq4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485285">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485286" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504540870"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p># 25<br /> Dean,</p> <p>See Garrit at #1:</p> <blockquote><p>People experience climate change, this is earth change by good observance, experience, registration and comparison with historical data. What do statistics tell about that?</p></blockquote> <p>It is unlikely that Garrit understands exactly what it is that you are asking for.</p> <p>I once met someone who thought that the late 60's TV series <i>Dark Shadows</i> was real and that Barnabus was communicating with him...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485286&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="rXD23DpPQPxAv21s_T7JAAR8GqbsJy_2KCeHOyHA0tU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="" content="Obstreperous Applesauce">Obstreperous A… (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485286">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485287" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504593887"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"It is unlikely that Garrit understands exactly what it is that you are asking for."</p> <p>True. Given how preoccupied he is with his favorite scam artist psychic it's likely he doesn't have a grasp of any significant portion of reality.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485287&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="GTEJl9YGDMtXua3zOR0cHx5yyVwf0UR8rAZPCUrJPnY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485287">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485288" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504796164"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Had to share this ...</p> <p><a href="http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/jack-ohman/article171837502.html">http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/jack-ohman/article1718…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485288&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="uqBInS81TgL5mGylXkJoynMu5iWfPenydWrmAbtv_hk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dhogaza (not verified)</span> on 07 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485288">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485289" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504841806"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@ dhogaza, excellent.<br /> The political cartoons are humorous mirrors. Time for a snapshot of all participants on this blog in one cartoon, including several cowards without a name, without the least grain of decency, but with backpacs filled with prejudice and enough swearing to participate in wold's final swearing contest. They are likely to get a painful upyours end.<br /> I wait and see from a safety distance.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485289&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xp2mhaVZsvKX_Jpm-hFRhjv90WJh7SG83kkN9l1z4S8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 07 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485289">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485290" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504870192"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Direct connections exist between climate change, the heating up of earth, oceans and atmosphere, the intensifying of hurricanes in strength, the melting of the poles, changes of the crust of the earth, earthquakes. It is no coincidence that all these phenomena coincide. See the poles, see the heavy hurricanes Harvey and Irma (category 5 plus) , and see todays earthquake in the Pacific Ocean (Mexico), 8.1 Richter. In my study this trend has been predicted to Kees de Haar, medium, inter alia on 27 April 1986 (séance IV); 13 April 1996, (séance 6); 2 August 2003, (séance 34). In those days my educated friends and peers and scholars found this trend interesting though questionable and some thought them unacceptable, but concerning these and other predictions they more and more found out, as some admitted to me, that the trend of these predictions is reaching the level of presumably right and becoming reality. My relations in the Netherlands and elsewhere wait and see how this develops. More about this has been published in my study and comments ´De apocalyps van de aarde in vijf bedrijven´, (meaning The apocalypse of the earth in five stages), 2017. </p> <p>For people in the Occident the spiritual source of these predictions is provocative because contrary to their beliefsystem that God and spirits are no reality and only manmade constructs. However there are other realities which cannot be denied.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485290&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="wc6DLwDX_o0hghXjSawBuXnJfnk-f3E8ayNQ8u-sv3I"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 08 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485290">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/08/31/new-research-on-assessing-climate-change-impact-on-extreme-weather%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Thu, 31 Aug 2017 18:20:42 +0000 gregladen 34503 at https://scienceblogs.com Hurricane Irma: Important changes in intensity, changes in track https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/30/possible-hurricane-irma <span>Hurricane Irma: Important changes in intensity, changes in track</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>UPDATE Sept 9, AM</p> <p><strong>Note that tropical storm force winds may start hitting southern Florida around 1 or 2 PM today, Saturday, and will reach central Florida by about 8AM Sunday. </strong></p> <p>The eye of the storm should be abreast southern Florida at around sunup on Sunday. The storm may remain a major hurricane as it moves all along the west coast, reaching south of Tallahasse, still as a major hurricane, Monday morning. </p> <p>Irma has interacted with Cuba more than previously expected. The storm also seems likely to move farther west than previously expected. </p> <p>Moving over very warm waters over the next several hours will strengthen the storm. If it does move along the west coast of Florida the focus now shifts to different communities, such as the Cape Coral / Fort Myers area.</p> <p>As a rule, storm surge risks on the west coast are greater than the east coast. The west coast has a broader shallow shelf, and since the hurricanes rotate counter clockwise, there is a greater chance of a direct hit. Correspondingly, the following storm surge map (most current version <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents">HERE</a>), which has inundation of over 9 feet if conditions pertain in a given spot, is what we should be paying attention to:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/FloridaIrmaStormSurge.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/FloridaIrmaStormSurge-610x597.png" alt="" width="610" height="597" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24497" /></a></p> <p>It also seems to me that the keys are in more danger with this track than with the central track. </p> <p>Here is a reasonable likely scenario, WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE based on current consensus. </p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/12_ms3.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/12_ms3-610x568.png" alt="" width="610" height="568" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24498" /></a></p> <p>Over-simply put, there are two things that determine the future location of a hurricane. One is the simple long distance movement of the major air mass that is our lower atmosphere. The hurricane is like a cork floating along in a stream. If the stream flow is steady and straight, the cork will be just down stream from where it is now, moving alongat an easily discernible rate, so the distance over a fixed time interval is easy to calculate.</p> <p>The other factor is all the other stuff. The complex movement of other low pressure systems and ridges of high pressure, all that. The land and the ocean have their own things going with respect mainly to high and low pressure, so as a hurricane moves from being out at sea to being on or near land, these interactions grow increasingly complex. Over the next several hours, this second factor (everything else) takes over and this is where the prediction gets complicated. How much exactly will the storm change its angle of movement, and exactly at what hour will that occur and how long will it take? </p> <p>So, the tack above looks pretty solid but it may in face be off by a hundred miles or even more before the storm is abreast of southern Florida. That difference will make all the difference in the world. </p> <p><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/072354.shtml?">Update based on NWS advisory</a> Sept 7, late PM</p> <blockquote><p>A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border<br /> with Haiti<br /> * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le<br /> Mole St. Nicholas<br /> * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands<br /> * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and<br /> Villa Clara<br /> * Central Bahamas<br /> * Northwestern Bahamas</p> <p>...</p> <p>Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson<br /> Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely<br /> during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a<br /> powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.</p> <p>Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from<br /> the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185<br /> miles (295 km).</p> <p>...</p> <p>The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking<br /> waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the<br /> following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the<br /> north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and destructive waves.</p> <p>Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft<br /> Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft<br /> Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft<br /> Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft<br /> Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft<br /> Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft</p> <p>...</p> <p>RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain<br /> accumulations through Saturday evening:</p> <p>Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...<br /> additional 1 to 2 inches<br /> Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated<br /> 20 inches<br /> Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25<br /> inches<br /> Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,<br /> isolated 15 inches<br /> Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches<br /> Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches<br /> Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,<br /> isolated 20 inches<br /> Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches </p></blockquote> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/215356_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/215356_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-610x501.png" alt="" width="610" height="501" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24481" /></a></p> <p>Update Sept 7, PM</p> <p>Everything I said in the last post applies now except the chances of the storm making landfall on the Florida Peninsula, and even the chances of a fairly direct hit on Miami and surrounding areas, is much higher than it was this morning. But we are still talking about something that will happen in the middle of the weekend, and this is still Thursday.</p> <p>Also, repeating, note that if this storm makes landfall at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, it is expected to move north very quickly (about twidce as fast as it is moving now) and reach southern Georgia WHILE STILL BEING A HURRICANE. A land hurricane, if you will. Except of course huge parts of it will be handing out over the very warm Atlantic. </p> <p>I heard a guy on the news today saying the only ticket he could get out of Florida was a one way flight to Memphis. The hurricane will be in the vicinity of Memphis, or at least central Tennessee/Kentucky, Tuesday. It will be a big wet storm at that time, but that is an area that floods so take it seriously. </p> <p>This might be a good time to read this post if you haven't already: <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2012/08/26/hurricane-landfall-what-is-it-and-dont-be-stupid-about-it/">Hurricane Landfall: What is it and don’t be stupid about it.</a><br /> Update Sept 7, Mid Day</p> <p>Storm surge watches have now been issued for South Florida. The experimental storm surge system of NWS suggests storm surges of up to 6 feet or so in a few places. But, the details of where storm surges may happen and how high they might be will probably sharpen a great day between now and Friday late PM.</p> <p>Mean while, do the same with storm surge information as I asked you to do with the overall Hurricane information below. Recognize how this information is produced and what it means. There will NOT be a storm surge of the maximum amount indicate on the maps in all the areas covered by the map. The way to use the map is this: If you are in a particular spot with a possible storms surge, the map tells you your local worst case scenario, the scenario you should be prepared for even though something less is probably what is going to happen. If you assume less will happen and are washed out to sea and never seen again, don't come complaining to me, because that is NOT what I said. If you are in a place where it says 6 foot surge, and you get a 3 foot surge, that is normal. Hopefully, though, you are no where hear the south Florida coast, right?</p> <p><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents">You can see the storm surge maps here.</a></p> <p>Update Sept 7 AM</p> <p>I want you to look at this graphic and understand its meaning:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/irma-major-major-uncertainty.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/irma-major-major-uncertainty-610x346.png" alt="" width="610" height="346" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24478" /></a></p> <p>There is about a 70% chance that the CENTER of Irma (the eye, approximately but not exactly) will remain between the two blue lines between midnight Saturday and midnight Sunday as it first interacts with Florida. In other words, between those two "m" markers. So, you have to start out by imagining the hurricane's eye in the Gulf over by Cape Coral, and think about that for a moment. Then, you have to imagine the eye out near Freeport and think about that for a moment. With each of these scenarios, understand that the Miami and Miami Beech area is in a bad storm, windy, lots of rain, probably flooding, etc. but not Houston and not Andrew. </p> <p>Now, look at the black line with the "M" markers on it. As you move from either blue line towards the black line, there is an increasing chance of the center of the storm being there. It is a bell curve, where the high point of the curve holds that black line. So there is a better chance that the center of the storm will be near Miami than Tampa or Freeport. </p> <p>Now let' consider the structure of the storm itself. Catastrophic sustained winds and gusts extend out from the center of the storm about the same width ad Florida itself, but as the storm approaches Florida it will weaken. The strongest wind and most severe storm tides are in the front right quadrant. So, if the storm comes on land in Florida along the southwest tip of the peninsula, that front right punch is going to only graze Miami but will obviously be very meaningful in the keys and everglades. If the center of the storm passes to the right of Miami about the same distance, perhaps Grand Bahama is toast, but Miami and Miami Beech is hit hard but it is a mere bad disaster. </p> <p>What are the chances that the storm will essentially ride this black line all the way? Low. Maybe 10% chance. But if it does, or does something close to that, what happens?</p> <p>There are three things to know, one of which I've already mentioned. That is that the front right is the most important part of the storm. So, if the storm is close to riding the line, but off to the right 10 miles, that is hugely different from if the storm is close to riding the line but off to the left 10 miles. The difference is in the survival of this urban area, potentially.</p> <p>Second: Note that there is an M on the track south of Miami, and another one north quite a distance. The lower M corresponds to sustained winds of about 150mph, the upper M to sustained winds of 120 mph. So, as the storm moves over the area, it will weaken but it will be very strong anyway.</p> <p>Third: The shape of the coastline, as discussed and depicted below, in an earlier update, means that the storm surge coming up into the Miami Beach area could be very high. The Hurricane Prediction Center has not posted storm surge estimates at this time, but depending on the exact path of the storm there could be many many feet of flooding over a very large area in and around Miami.</p> <p>Or, again, the storm may be nothing more than a bad day for the Magic City. Remember that. We still do not know.</p> <p>Beyond this, there is other complex bad news. Even if Irma scrapes the Atlantic coast of Florida, it may remain a hurricane all the way up to the Carolinas. If it misses Florida, it may go north and then hit the Carolinas with more force. Or it could go into the gulf, or miss everything. Still too early to tell, but Florida looks to be in some sort of trouble.</p> <p>Remember, mainly, that despite what the news agencies are saying, there is currently no valid prediction of what Irma will do over the weekend. So, if it does something that you were not expecting, that's you. You don't get to say "but they said yada yada" because they are saying nothing more specific than the vague and rambling things I said above. </p> <p>Update Sept 6, late AM</p> <p>Just hours after the NWS five day put Irma dead in the middle of Florida's south coast, the newest estimate is quite different. I point this out to underscore what I've been saying all along (and I hope you have not been ignoring): Five days out is too far to be accurate. Look:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/IrmaNew.png"><img src="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/IrmaNew.png" alt="" width="441" height="527" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-24471" /></a></p> <p>Update Sept 6, AM</p> <p>I keep seeing news phrases like "Irma has Puerto Rico in her sights." Puerto Rico will have some very bad weather, but the main path of the storm has never crossed the island, and there is probably a less than 10% chance of a direct hit there, or less. The small islands of the northern Leewards have been hit directly or close to it, and more are in trouble. It seems most likely that the first larger body of land Irma might strike is Cuba, which has is almost entirely within the cone of probability, but south of the central line of expected movement. If the storm interacts a lot with Cuba, or turns into the island nation, that will be bad for Cuba, and Irma will weaken considerably. Meanwhile, the Bahamas and islands between Irma and the Bahamas are likely to get hit hard. </p> <p>The more accurate three day forecast puts Irma as a Major Hurricane between Cuba and the Bahamas, or hitting Cuba or the Bahamas. The much less reliable five day forecast has Irma then curving north and striking the very tip of Florida and moving, as a major hurricane, onto the peninsula.</p> <p>However, as a target, Florida is small compared to the cone of uncertainty Look:<br /><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/120029_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/120029_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-610x501.png" alt="" width="610" height="501" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24469" /></a></p> <p>Given this, it is distinctly possible that Irma will pass to the right (east) of Florida and head up the Atlantic. If that happens, it may then strike the mainland somewhere else, or not. Or, given this probability map, it is possible that Irma will pass to the left (west, gulf-side) of Florida, and go into the Gulf, then it will be pretty much impossible for the hurricane to not hit something. </p> <p>The fact that the middle of this forecast graph is centered on Florida does not mean that it is more likely that the storm will hit Florida head on than not, given the wide margin of error and the relative narrowness of the state from this angle. I am emphasizing this because I don't want to hear any bellyaching later if Irma skips Florida and hits Louisiana or South Carolina or something. </p> <p>Either way, Irma is expected to be making whatever northerly turn it is going to make during the night time hours between Saturday and Sunday, and the current (but too far out to be certain of) projection is that Irma will be a Category 4 hurricane at that time. By Sunday night, Irma will have hit Florida, dead on, or not, and is expected to be a Category 3 hurricane on land and inland a ways, if that happens. In other words, worst case scenario includes southern Florida suffering a major hurricane for over 24 hours straight. </p> <p>It has been said over and over again that the real risk of death in a hurricane is inland flooding that often happens after the hurricane has come ashore, and not so much from the coastal flooding and the winds. I'm not going to exactly dispute that but I want to complexify it a bit. If we count all the hurricane dead in the US, the most people who have died of hurricane effects were killed in the coastal storm surge of one single storm. That is not an outlier in the classic sense (i.e., a number that is so out of whack that something must be wrong with the number). It is a real number but an extreme one, however, and meaningful averages should probably ignore it.</p> <p>But I bring this up now because it might be that a catastrophic hurricane will come ashore in an area where a lot of people live on low ground. There could be a storms surge that is substantial relative to the topography, and there could be winds strong enough to flatten homes and buildings and, generally, structures previously thought to be storm shelters. In other words, a worst case version of Irma would have a deadly storm surge and a deadly wind, more so than Atlantic hurricanes tend to have. Then, of course, the inland flooding as well, maybe quite substantial. </p> <p>Storm surges are more extreme when there is focusing terrain, like a bay flanked by high hills leading to a town or city. In such environments, however, the storm itself is likely to suffer attrition from the nearby mountainous topography. In the case of Florida, the good news is that there are not hill flanked embayments, and the bad news is that florida is as flat as a pancake, so the storm will not be reduced from that sort of friction. </p> <p>There are some potentially very uncomfortable scenarios. Look at a map of the Miami and Everglades area. </p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/s.florida.StormSurge.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/s.florida.StormSurge-610x429.png" alt="" width="610" height="429" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24470" /></a></p> <p>Now imagine a counter-clockwise spinning storm, centered close to the very southern tip of the state. Besides sweeping high winds along teh keys, it may also force a storm surge up the lagoonish area west of Key Largo, up into the northern part of Biscayne Bay, and right up into the waterways of Miami. I would not want to be on Dodge Island if that comes through. Also, northern Biscayne Bay could be flooded and the outlets to the south blocked, so any of several smaller low spots or outlets in Miami Beach may volunteer to be the new channel connecting the bay to the sea. That would be locally very very bad.</p> <p>Miami is thought to be less vulnerable to storm surge than other cities, because the sea deepens fairly quickly off shore, which decreased the amount of surge that is possible. But, this particular hurricane, coming from the south and being large, obviates that benefit because the storm surge could be coming through the zone behind the Keys, which is very very shallow. Even if Miami itself is spared, the areas around the keys themselves, and the everglades, are pretty vulnerable.</p> <p>Or, Irma may do nothing like this, and go somewhere else. We'll soon find out. </p> <p>Update Sept 5, evening</p> <p>In the fairly current infrared image below, Irma is clearly bearing down on some land masses. The twin (double) blobs south of the eye just being engulfed by read is Guadeloupe, and the largish two islands south of that are Dominca and Martinique. The several tiny dots right in the path of the eye or near it are Antiqua and Barbuda, Monserrat, St Kits &amp; Nevis, and Anguilla. You probably recognize Puerto Rico; the tiny dots in the blue specked area between Puerto Rico and Irma are the British and US Virgin Islands. </p> <p>These island are on the elbow of an ark that runs from Grenada to the Greater Antilles. This mostly volcanic island arc, rimming a small continental plate, would be a large arm of much more land and much less sea during low sea level stands of the Pleistocene. </p> <p>(I just thought I'd mention that because you probably want to know some things about these islands that are about to get blottoed.)</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/GOES01152017249t9PgyX.jpg"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/GOES01152017249t9PgyX-610x458.jpg" alt="" width="610" height="458" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24468" /></a></p> <p>It is still too early to predict what Irma will do when it is nearing the end of its path along the Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands, i.e., when it is nearer the US mainland. To give you an idea of how uncertain all this is, the average of all the models had Irma striking Florida at the end of the peninsula, but now, hours later, there are other models that tend to be pretty reliable showing Irma not hitting Florida at all, and rather, striking land in the Carolina region.</p> <p>What this means is this: If you are in Florida and preparing for a hurricane, continue to prepare. If you are in South Carolina and thought you dodged a bullet on this one, don't assume that. </p> <p>The one thing we are 70% sure of: Late PM on Friday, Irma will be somewhere between eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Probably. But possibly not. </p> <p>Update Sept 5, mid day</p> <p>We have been back and forth on Irma all along, with the possibility of a landfall in the US being very uncertain.</p> <p>I'm here to tell you that it is still uncertain. There are still some models that show the storm curving north and becoming one with the Atlantic.</p> <p>However, most models are showing Irma hitting the continental US, and of those, Florida seems to be a favorite spot.</p> <p>Several models indicate that Irma will interact with Cuba before heading north and running into Florida. It will not cross Cuba on the way north, but rather, veer into Cuba from the North and maybe not even make eyewall landfall there. It is hard to say what this will do but likely the storm will weaken before hitting Florida.</p> <p>Also, generally, reports of the storm's strength are exaggerated. It is now a very powerful storm and it could become more powerful but there is almost no way Irma will not decrease in strength, down to a Category 3 or even Category 2 before hitting the US, if it hits the US. There are reasons that Atlantic hurricanes are not as big, not as powerful, and not as persistent as many Pacific storm, and those reasons have not applied to the storm in recent days, but will start applying to the storm now and onward.</p> <p>Nonetheless, it is very likely true that somewhere in the US there will be a serious hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, hitting something.</p> <p>Meanwhile Irma is starting to impact land and will continue to do so for several days, mainly on islands.</p> <p>So, here is a reasonably likely scenario for the next several days, in DECREASING order of certainty as you go down the list.</p> <p>1) Certainly: Irma is at the moment impressing the heck out of weather watchers. It has a very clear and distinct eye with interesting features. The winds are very very high, and it is classed as a Category five hurricane. At this point, Irma is not merely a major hurricane, but rather, a catastrophic hurricane (that's not an official word, but it is a word that will be used on the Leeward Islands ... there is a good chance the name Irma will be retired). </p> <p>There are hurricane warnings in effect for Antiqua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Monserrat, St. Kitts, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other locations. Between Wednesay AM and early morning Thursday, approximately, Irma will bear down on locations between St. Johns and Puerto Rico. It will likely hit the first islands more directly with the center passing north of Puerto Rico, but it will affect everything in that area and this is going to be a disaster. A direct hit on Puerto Rico is in the range of possibilities. </p> <p>2) Probably: Between perhaps Thursday AM and Friday mid day the storm will weaken slightly. It may pass north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, but a direct hit on DR and Cuba is well within the range of possibilities. If so, it will weaken more, if not, it will weaken less. </p> <p>3) Maybe, maybe not: Between 4 and five days out, so starting in the middle of the weekend, the storm, still weaker but still possibly a major hurricane, will either be interacting with Cuba or staying north of Cuba, and poised to hit, possibly, Florida. Or not. </p> <p>If you live in Florida, it would be good to assume you need to react to a major hurricane. If you live in the keys, south of Miami, or the Miami area or the southern Gulf area, and this storm hits Florida, you will need to be paying close attention.</p> <p>By Thursday it should be a lot easier to say if Floridians, or some other group of people on the US Mainland are in trouble. Whatever you can do to be ready for a Hurricane that is non-committal and reasonable, do now, and you should probably have done that at the beginning of the season.</p> <p>Update Sept 2, PM</p> <p>Underscoring the futility of making projections of a hurricane's path beyond five days out, the bulk of the models now show Irma hitting the East Coast or sliding around Florida and hitting the gulf. One puts it through the Louisiana-Mississippi border, one has it heading for Halifax, and then all the others are in between.</p> <p>What does this mean? In terms of projecting the hurricanes ultimate path or chance of landfall, and location of any landfall, it means nothing yet. However the fact that this category 2 storm is likely to become category 3 storm over the next few days, and then will head in the general direction of land, means, well, that it gets its own blog post (this one) for now, if nothing else. </p> <p>Update Sept 2 AM</p> <p>The latest models, still too early to tell but there they are, mostly have Irna going off to sea. A couple have the storm hitting the east coast. None have the storm in the gulf. </p> <p>Updated Aug 31 Mid Day</p> <p>Two new developments in expectations about this storm, but all very provisional.</p> <p>First, the storm is intensifying more quickly than expected, and it is expected to become a very powerful storm, ultimately.</p> <p>Second, while earlier projections from many models allowed for a very wide range of possible paths, the models, still being worked far too out in time but also converging significantly, are starting to suggest that Irma's most likely course will be to curve up the Atlantic. This involves the possibility of landfall anywhere from the middle sates north to Canada, or no landfall at all. It is still too early to say, but it is looking unlikely for this storm to go into the gulf, but at least one or two models do allow for that.</p> <p>Updated Aug 31 AM:</p> <p>Here's a tweet that shows the current range of model projections for this storm (Note it is way to early to actually predict this far out, but this gives an idea of the range of possibilities):</p> <p><a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149">https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149</a></p> <p>The National Huricane Center originally suggested that Irma was going to remain relatively low grade for a while as it crossed the first part of Atlantic. However, it is rapidly intensifying and is already on the verge of being a major hurricane. That was not expected. So, this may be an interesting storm. </p> <p>Original</p> <p>I've been putting comments on, or links to posts on, the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/06/19/atlantic-hurricane-season-2017/">Here</a>, but I wanted to start a thread on Irma, which just now became a named storm. Irma is way out in the Atlantic, and its formation is so early that the NWS doesn't have any significant information on it as of this writing. But, it is heading roughly west. </p> <p>Stay tuned.</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Wed, 08/30/2017 - 03:56</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-irma" hreflang="en">Hurricane Irma</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/irma" hreflang="en">Irma</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/tropical-storm-irma" hreflang="en">Tropical Storm Irma</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485229" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504099557"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Irma, Origin: German. Meaning Goddess of War. Usually tending to be quiet, but has a harsh tongue when required. Source: <a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=irma">http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=irma</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485229&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="tdoPpjxhvs7ouH6CRpxoMhzCrqoD-FRRORb37HUgbJo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 30 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485229">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485230" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504099901"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wrong.</p> <p>It's full name is:</p> <p>"Irma gettin outta here!".</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485230&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="_X14h9kePhZMKhdhI7Fi_jeHS8euttNHPQ9nmnWtONM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 30 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485230">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485231" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504150446"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma">https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma</a></p> <p>5-Day Forecast has Irma as a Cat 3 by Sunday. The Lesser Antilles will be in play a week from now.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485231&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="C2H9TYlpsulwSUST-Ev_Cpa9Jr68dEE9hv7cqpry7rg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Kevin ONeill (not verified)</span> on 30 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485231">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485232" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504278679"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It is a cat three now!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485232&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-z3hztkLaEYBGuItugXspmVNUnxGbPk157mA5TV2S1U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 01 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485232">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485233" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504381893"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It's also sped up a bit, Lesser Antilles should now see the effects late Tuesday or early Wednesday</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485233&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="RHjKP73fXxMWtWIq8W9Ngd2rIU3cBVwo9etI14ysFZI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Kevin ONeill (not verified)</span> on 02 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485233">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485234" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504542107"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>As of 5 PM EDT, Irma is now a cat 4. Max sustained winds of 130 mph. Expected to skirt the the northern Lesser Antilles early Wed morning. Then will pass just to the north of Cuba on Friday?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485234&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="S52WqTp77nN7aIknLsCrylIWB9rUbUCyYbzQQ9RNs_o"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Redstart (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485234">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485235" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504543070"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Redstart - as Ryan Maue tweeted just a few hours ago, "<i>Because of large size &amp; Category 4-5 strength, Hurricane #Irma track of eye is important but impacts well away from center will be felt.</i>" It may not make landfall on Cuba, but that won't be much consolation to those that will still feel almost the full effects.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485235&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="5Wa3VljEE_l73uxFFVV62yvqo6xLYqv_ovSJFO0s_Zo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Kevin ONeill (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485235">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485236" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504546019"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Kevin - yes, that is certainly what's been observed in past events. I guess it's wait &amp; see at this point.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485236&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="TKwq--9jj0hroqQJzhfaVKfqfq-sfpI1JxEikgwYjik"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Redstart (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485236">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485237" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504577258"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Just been watching it on nullschool. Looks really nasty.<br /> Some trippy stuff South East of Madagascar too btw for those that like wind patterns.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485237&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yFbWfc9etDVdqd4dI_dfUsVMZXyqXhSZ5VsGnxTzKag"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Li D (not verified)</span> on 04 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485237">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485238" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504613129"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The 1800Z advisory has bumped the wind speed up to 185 mph. That's the highest wind observed in a hurricane so far east. Hurricane watches have been issued for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.</p> <p>If you're in the Florida Keys, now would be a good time to bug out. Supposedly it takes about three days to evacuate the Keys, and tropical storm force winds may reach that area as early as Friday.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485238&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="H-g0fk-XV3HYXIUsyhPCZW5IspABga74TD2BITSGZz8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485238">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485239" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504617151"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Anybody got a handle on how such a strong storm at 185 mph (with 220 gusts at flight level) sustained is currently seeing central pressures of mearly 926 millibars? This is nowhere near a record low pressure; The lowest was in 1975 with typhoon Tip at 870 millibars. </p> <p>Due to low wind shere, Irma does have symmetric outflow and subsequent difluence driving some explosive convection. </p> <p><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051742.shtml">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051742.shtml</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485239&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="crWsod0X9CKTd5dnRALhAAeEyRIQ7JxsIfmE_aVLDkI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485239">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485240" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504634424"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>#11: NBC News has reported that the "storm surge is forecast to be 7 to 11 feet for most the U.S. and British Virgin Islands." </p> <p>The Weather Channel says: "The NHC says that a storm surge of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is possible in the extreme northern Leeward Islands near and north of where the center tracks."</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485240&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="p66jeit39EGTzCVkDvnWMpsg-yJDlzYa8f1CYsOJ1M4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickR (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485240">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485241" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504650608"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Update here from 2 hours ago via Aussie ABC news : </p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-06/irma-is-no-ordinary-category-five-hurricane/8877184">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-06/irma-is-no-ordinary-category-five…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485241&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="RLH7OydN2ZJY3dazlyCMCP5cowedW0_UVR6l_BFVMns"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485241">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485242" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504657959"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>PS. BBC world news has this video of vision from space : </p> <p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-41167062/nasa-shares-video-of-hurrican-irma-viewed-from-space">http://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-41167062/nasa-shares-vid…</a> </p> <p>Followed by a closer look at Irma from inside the atmosphere with a a plane trip into it too.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485242&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CA98xLq_nsu-DckLMG8JBr8s55qlqJ4tcfBQA3-Mbfo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485242">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485243" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504686523"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gilbert:</p> <p>"Anybody got a handle on how such a strong storm at 185 mph (with 220 gusts at flight level) sustained is currently seeing central pressures of mearly 926 millibars? This is nowhere near a record low pressure; The lowest was in 1975 with typhoon Tip at 870 millibars."</p> <p>It's the pressure gradient, not the absolute pressure, that matters and Irma's been building up in an area with relatively higher pressure than some of those other examples ...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485243&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ErdJ4I1ZL-_lJN5dsYMsElH9VrRgWjk_IiIHl21or6A"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dhogaza (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485243">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485244" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504689656"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wilma: 882 mb<br /> Gilbert: 888 mb<br /> Labor Day 1935: 892 mb<br /> Allen: 899 mb</p> <blockquote><p>surface pressures around Irma are considerably higher than usual, which appears to have boosted the pressure gradient</p></blockquote> <p><a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands">https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms…</a> </p> <p>Well. I guess that makes sense. I've also read somewhere that mid level moisture was on the high side.<br /> ===================================</p> <blockquote><p>Once the full strength of the storm hits the island, Branson said he planned to retreat with his team to his concrete wine cellar below “the Great House.” As one does.</p> <p>“Knowing our wonderful team as I do, I suspect there will be little wine left in the cellar when we all emerge,” Branson wrote.</p></blockquote> <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/06/sir-richard-branson-is-riding-out-hurricane-irma-in-the-wine-cellar-on-his-private-island/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/06/sir-richar…</a> </p> <p>Umm... storm surge. We better get in the cellar.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485244&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Ke5xbV5YNsROFsPNGZN8shdZN_NHo6iKDtMRBgLIV70"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485244">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485245" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504690092"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Having visited both <a href="http://lionels.orpheusweb.co.uk/AirSea/ArkRoyal/PRVirgin/PRStThom.html">Puerto Rico and St Thomas</a> whilst serving on an aircraft carrier I am surprised that with all the carriers the US has had since WW2 that at least one isn't prepared for an evacuation of threatened areas.</p> <p>Civilian evacuation of war zone threatened regions was part and parcel of carrier, and other warship, operations. This hurricane sure threatens on war zone proportions.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485245&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="mXerRNueeQabPE179C64L0D9uQ8-DDP0wjjFGuCcmxQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Lionel A (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485245">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485246" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504691032"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>11</p> <p>It's the differential heat flux that counts , and Irma is both a lot colder on top ( IR imaging minima -117 F) and transiting warmer seas ( + 86 F ) than most hurricanes with lower central pressures</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485246&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="PbX3cEtaeVaWycNNpSJq5QL7EXjxN2reyM02V_515Sw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Russell (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485246">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485247" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504691544"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Puerto Rico is big enough that they can evacuate areas threatened by storm surge to higher ground. I don't specifically know about the Virgin Islands, but several of the Antilles chain have mountains as well, so again in principle they could evacuate to higher ground. Whether the infrastructure to do so is in place is another question.</p> <p>It's more of an issue in the Bahamas, because those islands don't get very high above sea level, and many of them are barely big enough to have an airport (or are served by seaplane). But hurricanes are routine in the Bahamas, so I would expect the government there has some plan in place.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485247&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="l2njuy_IXNxMeAQdVTVgOyASmozTlEoLXG808xKFzU4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485247">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485248" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504703203"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Talking about hurricanes Irma and others, compared with news from séances of Kees de Haar, medium in the Netherlands, in the period 1984 – 2005, as described, analyzed and commented in ‘De Apocalyps van de aarde, in vijf bedrijven’, (the Apocalypse of the earth in five stages), by Mr G.J.AM. Bogaers (language of the study, mainly Dutch).</p> <p>First I mention some of today’s headlines as read in<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm">https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-carib…</a><br /> Headline 1: 'Most powerful hurricane ever recorded over Atlantic Ocean batters Caribbean islands as it moves west with category 5 winds and rains' </p> <p>Headline 2: ‘Most powerful hurricane ever recorded in Atlantic makes landfall’</p> <p>Headline 3: ‘Florida prepares as Hurricane Irma grows into ‘superstorm’ </p> <p>Headline 4: ‘Irma breaks another record, this time for sustained wind speed’, Eric Blake @EricBlake12 #Irma has now maintained 185 mph winds for 24 hours - no Atlantic or eastern Pacific #hurricane has ever stayed this strong for so long. 8:52 PM - Sep 6, 2017 </p> <p>Quote from the Guardian ´The US will experience a severe swing away from its hurricane drought should Hurricane Irma slam into south Florida. Never before have two category 4 or stronger hurricanes hit the US in the same season since records began in 1851.<br /> Studies have shown that Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger, on average, with researchers finding they are reaching category 3 ferocity more quickly over the past three decades. At the moment, the Atlantic is considered “primed” for strong hurricanes because of warm ocean temperatures, weak countervailing winds and high levels of air moisture.´</p> <p>Hurricane Irma with the size of France (550.000 km2) surpasses the highest known category of hurricanes.<br /> Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has five categories. Category five till now is the highest level. 157 mph or higher; 137 kt or higher; 252 km/h or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.<br /> Hurricane Irma is over the top of category five, 300 km/h with wind forces measured of 350 km/h. St. Martin, St. Maarten (French and Dutch Antilles).</p> <p>Most people will be shocked by this news.</p> <p>For all people this nature force provokes shock and awe.<br /> Nevertheless it doesn’t come as a surprise for a small group of people who have been warned for nature phenomena like Irma, and who have presented these warnings to experts for research. </p> <p> I show you what I mean by just presenting verbally texts of these séances, translated into English, without specific comments. Everybody may think of it what he or she wishes.<br /> I present them in the general interest, without guarantees of realization of these messages give to Kees de Haar in psychic séances. They need research. Our hope is that these messages will not come true.<br /> Nevertheless todays developments are so peculiar that the time of silence is over. It is time for more attention and inquiry of nature and mankind.</p> <p>These séances are interesting because they foreshadow the great lines of what we are experiencing today.</p> <p>Séance R5, 23 September 1989, quote: ‘Many storms will appear. Very many storms (hurricanes), one just left, the other one comes. Earthquakes ditto. The whole world comes to stand on its head. These predicted phenomena are just harbingers.’</p> <p>Séance 38, Saturday 28 February 2004, quote: `I can inform you that about your country (the Netherlands) is said, that a part of your country will be submerged by water. But that´s is surely not true. The government of the USA is of the opinion that the Netherlands will be hit by very great storms. I can inform you with pertinence that this will not happen, because we shall help you, and the very big storms will not arrive in the Netherlands.<br /> These very big storms will rage all over the globe but definitely not over the Netherlands, because the Netherlands is a highly protected state, and this will stay so.<br /> I can inform you that England will be hit in the near future by giant storms, which never have been measured. So severely the storms will rage there.<br /> I can inform you that this will happen within a year of three, four. I can inform you, that also France will be hit severely. In that country a sea will land until Paris. This will happen with a hurricane force which never has been established. This will happen for sure. The storms will go all over Europe. This will happen in a timescale of some years.´</p> <p>Séance 48, Saturday 21 May 2005, quote: ‘I can inform you, that in the nearby future some remarkable hurricanes will show up and the hurricanes stem from corners of the world, that never has been before. This will be more and more apparent. I can inform you, that in the foreseeable future a giant hurricane will go towards America, but he will be one of the super greatest hurricanes. That one will destroy a great area. Yes.’</p> <p>Séance 49, Saturday 18 June 2005, quote: ‘Giant storms will appear. Storms with a winds … not to be named, but in your terms Beaufort 25, which will blow away hole areas. I can also inform you, that also in the Antarctic giant storms will rise, but such great storms, which never have been measured till now, and which will blow all ice away. I can inform you that great mountains will go everywhere.’</p> <p>What to think of the big lines of these predictions, which seemed utterly unrealistic in 1984 – 2005, but which seem more and more realistic in 2017? </p> <p>Climate change is Earth change.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485248&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="IYdVBLD8znaHnyV5_qLHzBgS96GAcrdXWiBn8kuxVLg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485248">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485249" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504704198"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I never understood what dean was talking about until now.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485249&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UR6g3wIfCCeSRS0cgCmUCpXFAcQQJP4iYl6Nsy6mEhE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485249">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485250" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504736770"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>#21 Irma is very explicit.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485250&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ev7SVgfHhFgSqVhZyxvi6aHQ7M48Vy9VnghmFM3_mbI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485250">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485251" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504738030"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/06/us/irma-florida-latest/index.html">http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/06/us/irma-florida-latest/index.html</a></p> <p>‘September 6, 2017 10:32pm EDT<br /> "The whole house was ripping apart"<br /> After Irma left Barbuda, ABS TV Radio in Antigua gained access to the island and interviewed residents. One woman who was home with her children and brother during the hurricane called it "the worst experience of my life."<br /> "It was like the whole house was ripping apart," the woman told ABS TV Radio. As the wind whipped her home, her daughter called 911. "They told us to go into the closet or use bathroom so that’s exactly what we did."<br /> The family split up and the woman sought refuge with her three children in the bathroom. They held onto the bathroom door as the wind rattled their home.<br /> I told the children 'pray, pray. God will help us. He will spare our life.’</p> <p>WATCH CNN LIVE<br /> ‘September 7, 2017 12:17am EDT<br /> A "brutal wind beating"<br /> From CNN's Amanda Jackson<br /> Kelsey Nowakowski, who lives in St. Thomas, said the island took a "brutal wind beating" Wednesday as Irma swirled in the Atlantic.<br /> After taking shelter inside her home for hours, she said she stepped outside to find debris all around her house.<br /> This doesn't look like it was ever a tropical paradise. It looks like an eerie fairytale forest’</p> <p>WATCH CNN LIVE<br /> ‘September 7, 2017 12:50am EDT<br /> More than 1 million people without power in Puerto Rico<br /> From CNN's Daniel Silva Fernandez and Mariano Castillo<br /> As of 10:10 p.m. Wednesday night, 1,079,465 electric customers or about 68% of all customers were without power in Puerto Rico, said Puerto Rico's utility executive director Ricardo Ramos Rodriguez.<br /> Our crews will begin getting out to the streets as weather permits. They will assess the damage and schedule repairs in the coming days<br /> Because authorities had said the island's electric system was already "vulnerable and fragile" before Irma, residents told CNN affiliate WAPA that they were worried the storm might knock the power out for weeks or months.’</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485251&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="d6c7_OfIuxKwJBl-WsRnCX99jKWjbwPZkGvqjN0DWOA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485251">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485252" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504760431"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Was watching Hari Sreenivasan talk with acting NOAA director Ed Rappaport on the 'News Hour’ Sept 6 about Irma. No matter how many times Hari’s questions tried to get Dr. Rappaport to address warmer oceans or human influence on changing world climate, the acting director was definitely “not going there”. Almost like if he had, there’d be consequences (and not good ones). His outward mannerism seemed subdued.<br /><a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/hurricane-irma-catastrophic-heres-officials-preparing/">http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/hurricane-irma-catastrophic-heres-offici…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485252&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="KZJ8JUDcb1Gee5CR6qzeIrt1ixCZB8sZJrYTeK0pnUw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Redstart (not verified)</span> on 07 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485252">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485253" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504839265"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Update: Friday 8th September 2017, 8.30 AM DT.</p> <p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/sir-richard-branson-says-necker-island-completely-utterly-devastated/">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/sir-richard-branson-says-nec…</a></p> <p>Sir Richard Branson says Necker Island 'completely and utterly devastated' by Hurricane Irma<br /> Barney Henderson, NEW YORK<br /> 8 September 2017 • 7:52am<br /> Sir Richard Branson has said that his private Caribbean island, Necker, was "completely and utterly devastated" by Hurricane Irma. The British billionaire said that his team on the island were all safe, having hidden in a concrete cellar, but that buildings and trees on the island had been swept away. "It is a traumatic time here in the British Virgin Islands," Sir Richard said via satellite phone for a blog post on his Virgin website. "I have never seen anything like this hurricane." </p> <p>Richard Branson </p> <p>"All of the team who stayed on Necker and Moskito during the hurricane are safe and well. We took shelter from the strongest hurricane ever inside the concrete cellar on Necker and very, very fortunately it held firm. Our thoughts go out to everyone affected by the disaster elsewhere in the BVI, Caribbean and beyond," Sir Richard wrote.</p> <p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-13-killed-caribbean-florida-prepares-storm/">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-13-killed-car…</a><br /> Deadly Hurricane Irma tears path through Caribbean as Florida evacuates.<br /> Florida order Keys evacuation as state prepares for Hurricane Irma.<br /> 01:05 h</p> <p>Danny Boyle 8 September 2017 • 7:18am<br /> CLICK THERE FOR LATEST HURRICANE IRMA UPDATES<br /> •Most powerful Atlantic hurricane leaves at least 13 dead<br /> •Hurricanes Jose and Katia are also forecast to cause destruction in the region<br /> •Donald Trump has said the winds of Irma are "the strongest I've ever seen"<br /> •Bahamas next in the path of hurricane as residents of Florida and Georgia are told to evacuate<br /> •Caribbean island of Barbuda 'rubble' after 'total devastation'<br /> •Emergency declared as storm heads to Cuba and Florida<br /> •Donald Trump's luxury resorts in path of Hurricane Irma<br /> •British mother fears for daughters missing on Barbuda<br /> •What to do if you are on holiday in the path of the storm<br /> Hurricane Irma is continuing to tear a deadly path through the Caribbean, causing widespread destruction and reducing buildings to rubble, on a track that could lead to a catastrophic strike on Florida.<br /> The American state is bracing for the arrival of the Atlantic's most deadly storm in history, which has already left at least 13 people dead, with thousands homeless. Emergency chiefs warn it will have a "truly devastating" impact on the US.<br /> Late on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center issued the first hurricane warning for the Keys and parts of South Florida, including some of the Miami metropolitan area of 6 million people. It added a storm surge warning and extended watch areas along the east and west coasts.</p> <p>21m ago 08:30<br /> A former official on the British dependency of Anguilla has an update on the carnage on the island left by Irma.<br /> The official, who does not want to be named, said the island high school has been destroyed; the public works building has collapsed and part of the roof of the main hospital is missing.<br /> “It is fair to call the situation devastating,” he said, “most roads remain blocked and power lines are down.”<br /> He added that power lines are down everywhere and that mobile phone connections are patchy at best.<br /> The UK government plans to deploy troops to the island after conceded that the situation there was worse than feared. </p> <p>And so on, and so on.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485253&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="7vCFnDTkdQvIqzErjAG8sBCYh3kt3c6NbBHUXhTAsUc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 07 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485253">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485254" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504932936"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Greg Laden posted on wo 30-08-2017 16:56, (quote:)</p> <p>"[New post] Possible Hurricane Irma<br /> (..) "I've been putting comments on, or links to posts on, the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Here, but I wanted to start a thread on Irma, which just now became a named storm. Irma is way out in the Atlantic, and its formation is so early that the NWS doesn't have any significant information on it […]"</p> <p>A week and more later we all experienced and still experience today the progress of hurricane Irma, a hurricane of a till now not known outer category (people suggest 6 or more) with outbursts of wind speed (flurry's) round 350 km per hour. It seems that it 'weekened' to a 'lesser' but still most dangerous storm of category 4 by now, reaching Florida. For latest news I follow CNN, BBC World Service and amongst others The Guardian. See: </p> <p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-latest-updates-caribbean">https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485254&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="jhkUdaq-4HNB-ShEc5ybmtUIemJE9vsEzyU4w5rTWJ4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 09 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485254">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485255" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504943180"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Latest via BBC : </p> <p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41210865">http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41210865</a> </p> <p>(Less than half an hour ago FWIW)</p> <p>Plus via Aussie ABC news online : </p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-09/hurricane-irma-could-hit-florida-as-a-category-4-officials-say/8888362">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-09/hurricane-irma-could-hit-florida-…</a> </p> <p>(3 hours ago FWIW) </p> <p>Plus this quote from here :</p> <p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-08/irma-katia-and-jose-hurricane-trio-baffles-scientists/8884834">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-08/irma-katia-and-jose-hurricane-tri…</a></p> <p>..unparalleled here and totally ridiculous given [the scale of] Irma".<br /> - Eric Blake, National Hurricane Centre Scientist.</p> <p>"Ridiculous" but also now our reality. Remember NASA climatologist James Hanson's book title?</p> <p>(Hint : 'Bout storms and children.)</p> <p>Note :the bloke quoted at the start here is an expert in hurricanes and a scientist so :</p> <p>a) he really knows what he's talking about </p> <p>b) Scientists tend to be conservative and under rather than over-estimate things as a general rule.</p> <p>c) a &amp;b and think about their implications here.</p> <p>Also recall what's recently happened in Bangladesh, India and Nepal with horrendous flooding killing thousands plus and putting two thirds of Bangladesh underwater too?</p> <p>Oh &amp; Irma is apparently expected to strengthen now before it hits Florida.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485255&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="BgUajNivAzMcsiuJwTVEvge0iHk-C4R-bq45Mkk2j9Q"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 09 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485255">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485256" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504946344"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Just watching AlJazeera on C24 Oz and they're now saying Irma could strengthen to cat 4 or even 5 if I heard right. Also : </p> <p><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/hurricane-irma-landfall-cuba-category-5-170909040746649.html">http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/hurricane-irma-landfall-cuba-cate…</a> </p> <blockquote><p><i>But even as they came to grips with the massive destruction, residents of the islands faced the threat of another major storm, Hurricane Jose.</i></p> <p>Jose, expected to reach the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday, was an extremely dangerous storm nearing Category 5 status, with winds of up to 250km/h, the NHC said on Friday."</p></blockquote> <p>Hurricane Katia, I'm not sure of &amp; haven't heard more bout currently.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485256&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="8bjQKW2aSyfY0iddnXTURJvDvHUFFB_Bljq-W0SKtnk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 09 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485256">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485257" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504950507"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Is there a way to measure the total energy of a given hurricane? Wind speed doesn't take into account the duration or geographic size of a storm. And rain fall matters too, doesn't it? How many terawatts or petawatts is Irma producing? Or is it discharing?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485257&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="zpi80ROLoJFhh4VyDL8brcOIIfyHYcEtFKTLXPWCv20"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Raucous Indignation (not verified)</span> on 09 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485257">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485258" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504951328"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Raucus, yes, there are several ways, and they take account of various factors. I saw a terawatt number recently, can't locate it right now,but if I do I'll post it. It is almost the same as Katrina.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485258&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cMG5i8asmL6rqWzapjnrt0v2Fq3mGjWHt6I6NcKX9_s"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 09 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485258">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485259" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1505052255"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Will that be maximum intensity? Terawatts per day? Terawatts of the strongest day? Terawatts at landfall? Or the total energy over the life of the hurricane? Irma has been greater than a category 3 for several days now.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485259&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="1dtUxxlMmg7679idTCc2ilu5-NpI2uzBkxKVLA2fVZk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Raucous Indignation (not verified)</span> on 10 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485259">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485260" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1505057682"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Sunday 10th. September 2017 Hurricane Irma</p> <p>Source± ABC news</p> <p><a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cuba-surveys-toppled-houses-flooded-cities-wake-irma-49735861">http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cuba-surveys-toppled-hous…</a></p> <p>Waves from Irma flood Havana coast even as storm moves away<br /> By andrea rodriguez and desmond boylan, associated press<br /> HAVANA — Sep 10, 2017, 5:16 PM ET</p> <p>Cuba</p> <p>Powerful waves and storm surge from Hurricane Irma topped Havana's iconic Malecon seawall and left thousands of homes, businesses and hotels swamped Sunday, even as the storm moved away from the island.<br /> There were no immediate reports of fatalities in Cuba, where the government prides itself on disaster preparedness and said it had carried out evacuations totaling more than 1 million people.<br /> Authorities warned that the floodwaters could linger for more than a day, and there was as-yet uncalculated damage to sugarcane and banana fields in central Cuba and to northern cays studded with all-inclusive resorts, potentially dealing a major blow to the country's key tourism industry.<br /> The powerful storm ripped roofs off homes, collapsed buildings and caused floods along hundreds of miles of coastline after cutting a trail of destruction across the Caribbean. Irma has killed at least 24 people in the region, leaving officials scrambling to bring aid to shattered communities.</p> <p>In Havana, home to some 2 million residents, central neighborhoods along the coast between the Almendares River and Havana harbor suffered the brunt of the flooding, with seawater penetrating as much as a half-kilometer (one-third of a mile) inland in places.<br /> Waves as high as 20 feet (6 meters) continued to pound Havana, with the spray topping the lighthouse at the Morro fortress on the entrance to the bay, and Civil Defense Col. Luis Angel Macareno warned that the flooding would persist into Monday.<br /> Emergency workers and residents boated and waded through streets littered with all manner of debris: toppled trees, downed electrical lines, roofs torn off by the winds and cement water tanks that fell from atop homes to the ground.<br /> The Associated Press</p> <p>Elena Villar and her mother spent the night huddling in the lobby of a building on higher ground as her home of 30 years filled with more than 6 feet (2 meters) of water.<br /> "I have lost everything," she said, on the edge of tears.</p> <p>Floodwaters entered the high-end Melia Cohiba and Riviera hotels, where the storm damaged the buildings, landscaping and roofing.</p> <p>The waters and winds also damaged the seaside U.S. Embassy, tossing around shipping containers that sit on the compound, smashing parts of its black perimeter fence, ripping exterior panels from the building and breaking windows and doors. The embassy's flag was in tatters fluttering from its staff Sunday.</p> <p>The Associated Press<br /> A woman rides a bike past palm trees felled by Hurricane Irma, in Caibarien, Cuba, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2017. There were no reports of deaths or injuries after heavy rain and winds from Irma lashed northeastern Cuba. Seawater surged three blocks inlandmore +<br /> Hector Pulpito, 33, recounted a harrowing night at his job as night custodian of a parking lot that flooded five blocks from the sea in the Vedado neighborhood.<br /> "I felt great fear. This was the worst of the storms I have been through, and the sea rose much higher," Pulpito said. "The trees were shaking. Metal roofs went flying."<br /> State television reported severe damage to hotels on the northern cays off Ciego de Avila and Camaguey provinces.<br /> Witnesses said a provincial museum near the eye of the storm was in ruins, and authorities in the city of Santa Clara said 39 buildings collapsed.<br /> Communist Party newspaper Granma reported that the Jardines del Rey airport serving the northern cays was "destroyed" and posted photos to Twitter showing the shattered terminal hall littered with debris.</p> <p>In Caibarien, a small coastal city about 200 miles (320 kilometers) east of Havana where many residents stayed put to ride out the storm, winds downed power lines and neighborhoods were under water.<br /> Similar scenes played out across the Caribbean, where the storm devastated islands before setting its sights on Florida.</p> <p>A truck drove through damaged neighborhoods distributing water, and authorities expected to set up distribution points on Monday. Plans to do so were initially delayed by Hurricane Jose, which roared toward the region as a Category 4 storm on Saturday but turned north without doing much further harm.</p> <p>"Everything has been destroyed where I work. There's nothing there," 27-year-old Manon Brunet-Vita said as she walked through the streets of Grand Case. "When I got to this neighborhood, I cried."</p> <p>French Caribbean</p> <p>More than 1,000 tons of water and 85 tons of food have been shipped to the French Caribbean territories of St. Martin and St. Barts, and additional deliveries are expected, according to government officials in the nearby island of Guadeloupe.<br /> Authorities announced the reopening of St. Martin's Marigot port and said a boat was expected to dock by Monday with a 5-ton crane capable of unloading large containers of aid.<br /> More police and soldiers were patrolling the streets following reports of looting, and authorities set up 1,500 emergency shelters.</p> <p>Dutch St. Maarten</p> <p>On the Dutch side of St. Martin, an island divided between French and Dutch control, an estimated 70 percent of all homes were destroyed by Irma.<br /> Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Sunday that the death toll in his country's territory had risen to four after the bodies of two unidentified people washed up on the island.<br /> "Unfortunately, there are more victims to mourn," Rutte said.<br /> With power out to much of the French Caribbean region, France's main electricity provider, EDF, said it has flown 140 tons of generators, pumps and other equipment to help St. Martin and St. Barts.</p> <p>In St. Martin, formerly lush green hills were stripped to a brown stubble and the smell of rotting debris spread across the French Caribbean territory of 40,000 people. Irma passed through earlier in the week as a Category 5 storm.</p> <p>US VirginIslands</p> <p>In St. Thomas, the U.S. Virgin islands, a convoy of FEMA trucks carrying water rumbled past damaged homes with sirens blaring.<br /> William Mills, a 35-year-old security worker, said he waited in a mile-long line for gas. He said many were seeking to leave St. Thomas, but that's not an option for him.<br /> "I'm going to stay here and tough it out," Mills said.<br /> ———<br /> Boylan reported from Caibarien, Cuba. Associated Press writers Michael Weissenstein in Havana; Peter Orsi in Mexico City, Ben Fox in Miami; Ian Brown in St. Thomas, U.S Virgin Islands; Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Seth Borenstein in Washington; Alina Hartounian in Phoenix; Thomas Adamson and Angela Charlton in Paris; and Mike Corder in The Hague contributed to this report.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485260&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="n_c3uwPbjoCXZwqFHVlQMvgUURdmQNsjxwnh2ak9yns"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 10 Sep 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485260">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/08/30/possible-hurricane-irma%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 30 Aug 2017 07:56:18 +0000 gregladen 34502 at https://scienceblogs.com Harvey The Hurricane Is A Significant Event UPDATED https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/24/harvey-the-hurricane-is-a-significant-event <span>Harvey The Hurricane Is A Significant Event UPDATED</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Harvey the Hurricane will hit Texas roughly between Corpus Christi and Victoria (but stay tuned for exact details).</p> <p>Harvey is passing over water that is significantly warmer than usual, owing to global warming. This storm was too disorganized to even, under normal conditions, to have a name, just a day or so. But, when this storm hits Texas late this week (maybe by the time you are reading this) it is likely to be a Category III storm. </p> <p>Then, after landfall, the storm will hang around that area for a while dumping huge amounts of rain on the Texas flatness.</p> <p>The target area may have 15 inches of rain or more over fairly large areas. There may be spots with more than 25 inches. This is one of those storms that requires the weather forecasters to add new colors to their usual maps. </p> <p>The last "major hurricane" (Category 3 or larger) to hit the US was Wilma in 2005.</p> <p>This is an area with abundant oil extraction and processing facilities which are subject to damage from large storms. </p> <p>Since the ocean has risen since the last major storm surge in this area, local residents and businesses need to make an adjustment in their expectations. If you are in the area look at the National Weather Service's science based information on storm surges. They have some new tools available. Good thing they have not been removed yet! </p> <p>For more on the link between this storm and climate change, <a href="http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/tropical-storm-harvey-2017">see THIS</a>. </p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/08/vis0-lalo.gif"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/08/vis0-lalo-610x407.gif" alt="" width="610" height="407" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24415" /></a></p> <p><strong>Added Aug 24 9:30PM</strong></p> <p>This is probably not going to happen, but ...</p> <p><a href="https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/900887170440941568">https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/900887170440941568</a></p> <p>We don't know how strong this storm is going to be, but a lot of experts are saying they are above average worried. </p> <p>UPDATE: Friday AM</p> <p>Despite rumors of weakening, the storm continues to strengthen. The main change in forecast is that the center of the storm's expected landfall is father south than expected, away from Houston, but Houston will still receive a great deal of rain, maybe most of the high rainfall amounts.</p> <p>Storm surges of up to 9 feet or more are possible around Victoria and Corpus Christi. </p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Thu, 08/24/2017 - 08:37</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/global-warming-1" hreflang="en">Global Warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-harvey" hreflang="en">Hurricane Harvey</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485066" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503579621"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>How much difference does 1.4 inches make in storm surge?</p> <p>I am assuming 3 mm per year, times 12 years.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485066&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FpGBeDrRPgiiU69kZw68kNRo4MKge3v3DZ-lPK_5sXo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 24 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485066">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485067" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503581655"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Thinking about this a bit more - I would think the timing of the storm surge would be a much more important effect. The difference between hitting at high tide versus low tide would be much more than 1.4 inches (I would assume).</p> <p>So I am guessing the higher sea level is a very minor effect, and could be completely swamped by tidal effects, unless the storm surge just happens to hit at peak high tide, which would add 1.4 inches to the storm surge.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485067&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="JmjCCEj-OST_COCk6Zj3cuQi1LLGa5rm-c5rcY2sYEE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 24 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485067">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485068" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503583125"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>RickA@1: If your storm surge defenses can handle a storm surge of X but be overtopped by a storm surge of X + ε, then you do need to worry about it.</p> <p>Now consider that a large fraction (if not a majority) of the US's gasoline refining capacity is on the east side of Houston, which is potentially in the path of the storm, especially if the track shifts eastward. And that despite the requests of the City of Houston for state funding to help harden these facilities against weather disasters, the state of Texas has done nothing.</p> <p>One more thing: Harvey is predicted to stall just after landfall. Which means lots of rain throughout southeast Texas, and the potential for catastrophic flooding. Some reports are suggesting that localized amounts of as much as 30 inches (that's about 750 mm, in case any non-US people are reading this). There is very little topographic relief in that part of Texas, so all that water is going to drain rather slowly. Elevated sea levels will make that problem worse as well.</p> <p>Bottom line: This has the potential to be really bad, not just in southeast Texas but all over the US, if large amounts of that gasoline refining capacity were to go offline.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485068&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="SuXoBZ2VHQlgp6X9UTeW0WX0CsBcOfwubFyn09unBMk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 24 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485068">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485069" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503585454"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>&gt;The last “major hurricane” (Category 3 or larger) to hit the US was Wilma in 2005.</p> <p>At the time, between that and Katrina, people were saying it is because of global warming and to expect it to happen more often.<br /> Kudos to Greg for not repeating it here.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485069&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ftrVKZfqt5azmIvZ1D8wJfFxHi9RN0okaLN1aQ9C_Wk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 24 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485069">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485070" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503585792"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"So I am guessing the higher sea level is a very minor effect,"</p> <p>You would be wrong. What are you using to guess with? There's an entire internet to learn from you there. Stop pulling from your ass and start thinking.</p> <p>The extra sea level s ocean wide. The ties do not rise more than several inches, the sea across the ocean is gathered and sets itself higher because of that gather to be several feet in difference. Rising sea levels will do that an more, since the tides is part rise and part fall, not all rise.</p> <p>Surges too will be higher because the water can fetch all the extra ocean along the entire reach of the surge. A couple of inches will easily pass a few feet in peak.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485070&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="olKi4kPmACwZ5rysCeMJS_IKhx7GSS9Dm9v2D8pT0B0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 24 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485070">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1485071" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503644530"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It all depends. A storm surge in a flat wide ocean against a flat wide strandline has close to a 1:1 ratio, so a one inch rise in sea level causes nothing interesting. However, the storm surge is normally channeled into areas of decreasing width. If the surge is concentrated into a tenth of the space, which is typical, then multiply by ten. So a 1.4 inch storm surge is over a foot of extra.</p> <p>The strorm surge may not be the problem as Eric point out, in the refinery and port area, as much as the flooding. See the other post I just put up for info on that. </p> <p>If the rain really is upwards of 30 inches around Houston there may be pretty heavy flooding there!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485071&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="biFWu_V3k9rvZT0gqCHjA-qN3FQor8bc2m9Y86BsTo8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485071">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485072" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503646180"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>There's not much of an issue with flooding in the middle of the ocean, though, is there! If it WEREN'T flooded in the middle of the ocean, *then* maybe you got a problem.</p> <p>But increased volume has a bigger multiplier than tidal forces because tidal changes are a net zero. And if the sea floor is slightly further away the waves can travel longer and faster (the reason for the breakers being the shear flow between the top and the bottom of the water vortex that is caused by the winds on the surface of the ocean, and the nearby floor slows down the bottom of the water).</p> <p>So storm surges will be bigger and the waves reach land at higher speeds.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485072&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="AKK3s1NXgO7igJ-ybMq_GHUe27750-SnTKc_qMGYsQQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485072">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485073" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503652382"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow #5 and #7.</p> <p>Tidal changes are a net zero.</p> <p>So it makes no difference if the storm surge from a Hurricane happens to hit at high tide!</p> <p>Good to know.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485073&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="SR3p3_q_i1eCAWl0aqrwTzbWNHW_spdCtrgn9F9cd9M"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485073">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485074" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503654419"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Yes. Because where the tidal forces can't make there be more water in the ocean.</p> <p>But melting ice can.</p> <p>Oh, and where did you hear that it didn't matter if there was a surge at high tide, moron? You fuckwitting again?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485074&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="D8cVBcUHEs8b7FHMgozRu_3AjRSosEsl8LkXUG8z3A8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485074">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485075" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503691801"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Re: #1 &amp; 2</p> <p>Flooding and not flooding can be a matter of inches. My house had a high water mark on my front lawn near the porch. my across-the-street neighbor had water in his house.</p> <p>Tides in the Gulf of Mexico (my local ocean), as in the Mediterranean, another landlocked sea, are not very large, a foot or so if that. Still, if you're at the edge of a storm surge a foot can make all the difference.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485075&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ilsmZK5B-CuqBLqHUoKsWI8kalSoqDQhJRDb4NS4uf4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Tyvor Winn (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485075">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485076" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1503692607"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Re: #6</p> <p>Flooding during hurricanes Rita and Ike in SW LA &amp; SE TX resulted from huge storm surges (20 ft or so) that pushed water up the rivers and bayous (and piled up the formerly downflowing water) creating widespread flooding in areas even 8 feet and more above mean sea level 30+ miles from the normal shoreline. Throw in wind damage (roof damage. falling trees &amp; utility poles and you've got a grade A mess.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485076&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="aKScg_gAqhFCI46wl5jvWDYlIJyKS2DfhxYMqQk4_rU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Tyvor Winn (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485076">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1485077" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1504025424"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Tides are definitely an important factor. Cyclone ITA was a category 4 Cyclone when it hit the coast just North of Cairns in 2014, but it had luckily slowed (and weakened) so its arrival coincided with low tide. The storm surge didn't overtop the walls around the esplanade and only caused a minor amount of flooding up the storm water system into the streets.<br /> With a local tidal range of about 3 metres, the 5 metre surge hitting at low tide made all the difference.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1485077&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Yn0Lr1_8afOkVrgbNoMgitK09aeJ4Iu4oVpL6OmYphA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Craig Thomas (not verified)</span> on 29 Aug 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1485077">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/08/24/harvey-the-hurricane-is-a-significant-event%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Thu, 24 Aug 2017 12:37:41 +0000 gregladen 34488 at https://scienceblogs.com Atlantic Hurricane Season 2017 (frequently updated) https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/06/19/atlantic-hurricane-season-2017 <span>Atlantic Hurricane Season 2017 (frequently updated)</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>UPDATE (Aug 30th)</p> <p>Irma is a new named storm in the Eastern Atlantic. <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/30/possible-hurricane-irma/">See this post </a>for details, eventually. </p> <p>UPDATE (Aug 29th)</p> <p>There is a system currently raining on Cabo Verde, off the West Coast of Africa (nee Cape Verde) that is expected to develop. It is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center has estimated that there is a high probability of this stormy feature becoming a tropical storm in a couple of days or so. If it gets a name, it will be Irma, unless some other large rotating wet object takes that name first. </p> <p>UPDATE (Aug 29th)</p> <p>How is the Atlantic Season doing so far, in relation to most hurricane seasons?</p> <p>Using data from <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/">NOAA</a>, we can say that on average (using the 1966-2009 baseline) we reach the eight named storm in the Atlantic (Harvey is the eighth) on September 24th. So, we're having more named storms than average. </p> <p>This year so far we've had 3 hurricanes. Normally one reaches that number of hurricanes on September 9th. That's a week and a half from now, so we can declare this year a bit above average in this measure, but not spectacularly so.</p> <p>So far this year we've had one major hurricane (Category 3 or above). There are some years with zero major hurricanes, but on average one major hurricane occurs by September 4th. So, we're close to average now.</p> <p>UPDATE (Aug 29th)</p> <p>The following posts discuss various aspects of Harvey</p> <p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/28/harvey-the-hurricane-truly-climate-change-enahnced/">Harvey The Hurricane: Truly Climate Change Enhanced</a></p> <p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/27/questions-about-harvey/">Is Harvey a failure of the assumption that we’ll adapt to climate change?</a></p> <p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/25/harveys-effects-on-petroleum-pricing-and-related-things/">Harvey’s effects on petroleum pricing and related things</a></p> <p>UPDATE:</p> <p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2017/08/24/harvey-the-hurricane-is-a-significant-event/">I'm writing up Harvey here on its own post.</a> This is going to prove to be an important hurricane. If you are in Texas get caught up right now. </p> <p>UPDATE:</p> <p>Well, finally, something interesting happened in the Atlantic! Tropical Depression Harvey is heading for Texas and in a very short amount of time is going to whip up into a hurricane and hit the Lone Star State right on the coastline. </p> <p>From the NWS HPC:</p> <blockquote><p>1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy<br /> rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions<br /> of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.</p> <p>2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern<br /> Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday<br /> through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.<br /> Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service<br /> office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information<br /> on the flooding hazard.</p> <p>3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High<br /> Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening<br /> inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the<br /> next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm<br /> Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.</p> <p>4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC<br /> website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -<br /> the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being<br /> exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is<br /> based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best<br /> represents the flooding potential in those locations within the<br /> watch area.</p></blockquote> <p>______________________</p> <p>We still hear the yammering that climate change has not affected storms. "They said there would be more storms. There's no more storms," they say.</p> <p>They are wrong in so many ways. For example, the total energy observed in tropical storms around the globe is up. There have been several big huge scary storms in the tropics in recent years, some of which are unprecedented in their size, strength, rapidity of forming, when they formed, where they went, and what they messed up. Other types of storms show either likely increases or, if not clearly increased yet, still show strong liklihood of increasing in the future based on models. Models that are good. </p> <p>This is from Emannuel 2005, showing his "Power Dissipation Index" over time and sea surface temperatures.<br /></p><div style="width: 410px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/06/Emmanuel_2007_hurricane.gif"><img src="/files/gregladen/files/2017/06/Emmanuel_2007_hurricane.gif" alt="" width="400" height="329" class="size-full wp-image-24226" /></a> Smoothed Power Dissipation Index (dotted line, a measure of hurricane intensity) versus Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (solid black line) </div> <p>This shows the long term up and down swings in total tropical storm activity, and an overall upward trend exactly as expected with effects from global warming. </p> <p>This is from "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" by Kerry Emanuel, Nature 436:686-688. </p> <p>See also<a href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming-intermediate.htm"> this post </a>for more details.</p> <p>Roger Pielke Jr. is one of those yammering fools (I used to try to be nice to him until he accused me of horrible things a few months back and almost none of them were true!) who will tell you this. Roger says, there have bee no more landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes in the US recently than ever before. But trying to figure out what is occurring on the Earth by only considering what the smallest of the Hurricane basins produces, and only counting the small subset of those hurricanes that hit the US (and, by thew way, ignoring some of them such as Hurricane Sandy in order to fudge the numbers) is like trying to get a handle on the frequency of major train derailments by watching the 100 mile length of track you drive along five times a year on the way up north fishing. Nobody would do that. Except Roger.</p> <p>The normal number of named Atlantic storms is 12.1 of which 6.4 are hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes, in a given year. The record high is 28 named storms, and the record low, is 4. </p> <p>There have been various predictions for how much storm activity we expect this year. The predictions that are most recent and most reliable call for 11, 12, 11-15, 14, 11-17, and 15.3 storms. So, generally, close to average plus. </p> <p>The prediction I watch most closely is from PSU's Earth System Science Center. PSU has been making very accurate predictions for a number of years. For this year, they predict 15.3 +/- 3.9 named storms this year (i.e., about 11 to 20 with the best guess being 15). Their prediction will drop a little if there is a mild El Niño this year, but that seems increasingly unlikely. Also, PSU has a second alternative model that produces a lower estimate, of around 12.4. </p> <p>So, in short, barring an El Niño, we can expect a near average but slightly above average year for Atlantic hurricanes. And no, that does not mean that global warming is not happening. It means that no derailments are expected along a particular section of recently maintained rail track. </p> <p>Anyway, for the second year in a row, IIRC, we got cheated on our A storm. Below, I've put the official list of storm names for the Atlantic 2017 season (as headings, we'll fill in info as the year progresses), but the first tropical storm to talk about today, 19 days into the season, is Bret (one 't'). Arlene happened last April. </p> <p>Tropical storms don't happen in the Atlantic in April. 'Cept for Arlene. Generally, it seems like the boundaries are becoming enfuzzied. Expect more "extraseasonal" storms over the next few years, and expect eventually, perhaps a decade from now, for the National Hurricane Center crew to be asked to start watching year round, because a tropical storm that hits your fleet in April is still a tropical storm. Even if Roger says it doesn't exit. </p> <p></p><h2>Bret</h2> <p>Bret formed near the very southern edge of the Atlantic Hurricane basin. <a href="/files/gregladen/files/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-19-at-7.18.02-PM.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-19-at-7.18.02-PM-610x290.png" alt="" width="610" height="290" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-24224" /></a></p> <p>This is the earliest far south forming hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. So, our first storm of the season happened months early, the second storm hundreds of miles south, compared to normal. Roger that. </p> <p>Bret will menace the northern edge of South America, then in a few days from now it will be gone. Bret is not expected to strengthen and will not be a hurricane. Nor will it hit the United States of America. Therefore, according to Roger, Bret, as novel as it is, does not exist. </p> <p></p><h2>Cindy</h2> <p>The next storm, to be named Cindy, is very likely to form from a disturbance now seen in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. This is fairly typical place to see a tropical storm or hurricane form this time of year. Cindy will likely become a north-moving tropical storm, and will likely stay just at tropical storm strength, coming ashore somewhere between Houston, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana. The chances of Cindy wetting down NOLA is very good, but again, this will not be a hurricane. This will happen some time late Wednesday, most likely. </p> <p>While possible-Cindy would transform from a tropical storm to a depression with landfall, the storm will track up the Mississippi and cause lots of rain. </p> <p></p><h2>Don</h2><br /><h2>Emily</h2><br /><h2>Franklin</h2><br /><h2>Gert</h2><br /><h2>Harvey</h2><br /><h2>Irma</h2><br /><h2>Jose</h2><br /><h2>Katia</h2><br /><h2>Lee</h2><br /><h2>Maria</h2><br /><h2>Nate</h2><br /><h2>Ophelia</h2><br /><h2>Philippe</h2><br /><h2>Rina</h2><br /><h2>Sean</h2><br /><h2>Tammy</h2><br /><h2>Vince</h2><br /><h2>Whitney</h2> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Mon, 06/19/2017 - 13:50</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/climate-change-0" hreflang="en">Climate Change</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/global-warming-1" hreflang="en">Global Warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/2017-atlantic-hurricane-season" hreflang="en">2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/arlene" hreflang="en">Arlene</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/bret" hreflang="en">Bret</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricanes" hreflang="en">hurricanes</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483255" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497904562"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>What a bummer.</p> <p>"EXCLUSIVE: 60% Of Millennials Willing To Give Just $10 Or Less To Fight Climate Change"</p> <p><a href="http://www.dailywire.com/news/17674/exclusive-60-millennials-unwilling-give-more-10-james-barrett">http://www.dailywire.com/news/17674/exclusive-60-millennials-unwilling-…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483255&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="mZSJUdzopN6xPhHQcpl7TAwKKK3GI12rAFyIAJgEyO4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">skl (not verified)</span> on 19 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483255">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483256" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497909482"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Dear Greg,<br /> The picture you draw remarkably conforms predictions Kees de Haar, medium in Alphen, received in 1984-2005. If the trend, which he got predicted, proves alright all the way, there will arrive a lot more hot stuff, one can get real upset about. Upsetting yourself has no use. Things come as they come, regardless the shock and awe and opinions they provoke. In human sense it doesn't do us any good to mock and scream. Let's concentrate on what is happening. I am author of the three volume study ‘apocalyps of the earth in five stages’ (2017) with additional information from above, which by the way proves the study ´The path of the pole´, of Charles Hapgood and others, with a foreword of Albert Einstein. For the better understanding of processes I give you my conclusion: climate change is earth change, we all are in the middle of it, whether we like it or not. Keep Calm and Carry On.<br /> Kind regards, Gerrit Bogaers, Laren NH, Tuesday 20 June 2017, 7.56 AM Dutch time.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483256&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="f72OCRJz1zjBfR9f8lST4zHqyS2_NwRl43cuM4hg4bY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gerrit Bogaers (not verified)</span> on 19 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483256">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483257" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497935740"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I thought ACE was at a record low for North America, and less than 50% of "normal" for the world?</p> <p><a href="http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php">http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483257&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="arUHtjxu1FQ11FnCClgT8TjqCwv6ITo0iLPmVLyXBFA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483257">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483258" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497936416"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>So what made you think that?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483258&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="uIT2cHAJIP87EdddbarDomVaqQxJhpdVRgZ_QUVJnkc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483258">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483259" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497936617"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>The picture you draw remarkably conforms predictions Kees de Haar, medium in Alphen, received in 1984-2005.</p></blockquote> <p>Yeah, call on some quack bullshit about a "medium" who, as they all do, writes stuff that so vague it can be shoehorned into supporting anything and toss it out here -- that will make people realize there is a problem. </p> <p>Oh wait, no, it will<br /> a) make sane people laugh and say "What kind of idiot believes in fortune telling?"<br /> b) make the people who are already denialists (like rickA) say "See, this is all they have."</p> <p>Gerrit, that crap doesn't help anything.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483259&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="WjkWSW7ZBcMZQcBiLpNQXh0QKhP--MKvCjcc8Y-v6EQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483259">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1483260" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497943653"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gerrit, that is, an entirely new form of denial! A mystic predicted some of the effects of climate change, therefore they are not real. Holy f'in crap!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483260&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="e2shXXRbfzkaF9TjNvEvR-9i3ZhPBM0BGuZezz8Q3kA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483260">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1483261" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497944024"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>RickA: </p> <p>ACE is one way to measure tropical storm activity, but if you want to measure total storm energy across basins over time it isn't good for that. It measures what is going on in only part of the storm. Some of the biggest and most destructive storms ever seen have had relatively small contributions to ACE. </p> <p>Both ACE and other measures, including simple observations like the number of storms, go up and down in long term cycles. These cycles are too long term to pick up what we expect is a signal of serious change in climate patterns starting around 1980. We do know that after 1980, the Atlantic basin experienced a huge increase in storms several years, and this was one of those periodic uptics. Was that uptick greater than previous ones because of climate change? Will the next uptic be greater than earlier ones because of climate change?</p> <p>The answer from the empirical data is: Impossible to say. Evidence is abscent. (There is no evidence of a lack of change, but simply, not enough evidence to say if there is a change or not, because post 1970 data are not comparable with pre 1970 data). </p> <p>The evidence from modeling is yes, there will be an increase. </p> <p>Having said all that, the data globally as analyzed by Emannuel and others shows an increase in storm activity globally. The Atlantic basin is about 13% of the total global storm energy.</p> <p>I'm adding a graphic above to show Emannuel's work.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483261&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FpmpI4R_I-r6Qy-0vM5ke9Kuvb8AMNDCmKI0RB2LkJQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483261">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483262" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497947244"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>A further confounding factor in detecting increases in hurricane activity is small number statistics. If you see 28 tropical storms in a basin one year, and 18 the next, that is only a 2σ decrease, barely enough to be considered significant, even before you consider climatological factors like the ENSO phase. So you need a much longer time base of measurements than we currently have to determine whether storm numbers are increasing or not. Before about 1970, when satellite observations became available, we missed a lot of tropical cyclones--that's less true of the North Atlantic than the rest of the world, but some short-lived storms probably would have been missed even with the amount of shipping in the North Atlantic.</p> <p>One trend that should be worrying people who live near the Atlantic/Gulf coast (and coastal southern California, where tropical cyclone activity is rare but not unprecedented) is that we are seeing tropical cyclones in unusual places. Such as Brett just off the coast of Venezuela: tropical storms near the South American coast tend to ingest a lot of continental (dry) air, which inhibits development and will likely kill off Brett over the next two to three days. Or Alex in the Azores. Or the storms we saw last year approaching the Hawaiian Islands. The window of vulnerability is increasing geographically as well as temporally.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483262&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="oMLMRnUVYNAxuxp-dFvw-eqUNbqx4YLUDCCghJFzlXo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483262">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1483263" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497949154"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Eric: One of these days a Patricia like storm is going to whack LA or San Diego. That has in fact happened in the past but beyond memory. The storm hikes up unexpectedly to Cat III strength within a single news cycle so most people miss it, whacks into Coronado and next thing you know, fish tacos everywhere. But not in a good way.</p> <p>I can think of ways to track storms in the Atlantic over long periods. There are weather stations that are very old in places like Bermuda and Jamaica (all the British colonies) I assume. A simple tracking of barometric pressure at 30 locations in the basin for the last 30 years should correlate roughly at a decadal scale to TC activity, and then that can be extrapolated back until the number of stations starts to drop below some number. I suspect we can see TC activity back to close to 1700 using this method.</p> <p>This would produce only about 10% of the ideal data set for looking at annual patterns, but a running mean of 30 year periods should show the overall pattern. If it follows some other data such as sea surface temperature, that would more or less confirm it.</p> <p>But that is a lot of work for a fairly uncertain outcome. The modeling is better, cheaper, works now, and tells us to get more plywood.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483263&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="uUF9IjVFCpQFwC7ykWF5GN5ANpzKfAgEp4MCHmDtuL4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483263">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483264" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497950226"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Is there an updated Emmanuel chart? Looking at ACE in the same timeframe is similar, but the longer term picture is flatter.<br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483264&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="h5yAgrOXvkKEgHYBMlZNif7-5r-2YUOaXTbmtxeRQS8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483264">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483265" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497955529"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>For North Atlantic tropical storms, we have pretty good (but not perfect) records going back to 1851. The British, and later the Americans, encouraged ship captains to keep weather records. A few small and short-lived storms would have been missed--only during the satellite era can we be confident of catching those--but any system that lasted at least 24 hours or so would have been detected. To go back further we would have to develop some proxies, which would be a fair amount of work. The method that you suggest might work. But as you say, that would only get us about 1.5 centuries. The barometer was only invented in the late 17th century, so there would be no way to push it further back.</p> <p>But the North Atlantic is only a small fraction of the world's oceans, and shipping networks in the pre-satellite era were not so dense over most of those oceans. Which is why it is still a fair statement that we don't have good worldwide records before about 1970.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483265&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="LcQ3uBc3gFIyBjRVNrNY04s8O03jw95m5nl514yopmM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483265">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483266" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497956736"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well I'm still waiting for dick to say why he thought ACE was low. It's a nonsequitur here. I thought temperature anomaly was higher last year. Has bugger all to do with the trend, so if I were to bleat it out randomly it would be quite reasonable to conclude I was a duplicitous fuckwit, no matter how accurate the claim.</p> <p>So I'm waiting to see why dick thought his thought.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483266&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="mSnO-a_qtkl8mGifN0TiuQDrPJWaHy0AiJ3hD17J2pI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483266">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483267" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497958478"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>#12,he answered even before you asked it. Unlike you, his links actually demonstrate what he claims.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483267&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Zumq4fMHKl_vLOcOP7M2JUi57eK69MjPiO_jZT5aCQI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483267">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483268" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497959873"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>No, he didn't "mike".</p> <p>Please remove your head from your anus.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483268&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="HQID8kBZBUVpveimBPckH0UaU5ti6_oK0HI-w4zX-E4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483268">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483269" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497962644"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"mike", read again.</p> <p><i>It’s a nonsequitur here</i></p> <p><i>I thought temperature anomaly was higher last year. Has bugger all to do with the trend</i></p> <p>So, no, I'm not asking what makes him believe that ACE is lower, but what makes him think that it's relevant to bring it up in a discussion NOT about ACE?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483269&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ZFLEOm1nEAVTcKz0y917Oik8c5kyX8Idf1Dd4ShHHMg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483269">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483270" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1497987136"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow #4 asks "So what made you think that?"</p> <p>Well Wow - if you follow the link I put in #3 and read the words at that link, you will see why I think what I think.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483270&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xGkqQfGQpDi6vZeSvKl11LJg2FCLqr0w3G6lRu0biyA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483270">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483271" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498012005"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>No, what made you think it? Not what evidence you have for it, why did you think it.</p> <p>You dumbfuck idiot.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483271&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UwdzliVinrY8s2AmhuS3LIXFC-USSSqVLSouqxW5SSs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483271">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483272" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498017476"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow @12 - "Well I’m still waiting for dick to say why he thought ACE was low"</p> <p>Wow @15 - "So, no, I’m not asking what makes him believe that ACE is lower"</p> <p>Classic Fuckwit.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483272&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="gL7xy50jmAz2VFPjTtmNDs5Q6-AXPn5WO7cSLZhReyk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Betula (not verified)</span> on 20 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483272">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483273" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498051108"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p> ignoring some of them such as Hurricane Sandy</p></blockquote> <p>'Sandy' was a typical cold-core low and not a 'hurricane'</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483273&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="NrgE3fRW89SCnq4q683rGTJhaMovSr3ubDIdrsZcjhg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 21 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483273">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483274" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498051523"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>addendum:</p> <p>Sandy <b>did</b> start out as a cat 1 hurricane but went through complete extratropical transistion. Was it sort of a 'hybrid' for a time? Sure, but that is not unusual.</p> <blockquote><p>One of the strongest extratropical lows in Atlantic history occurred in January 1989 during the ERICA field project. It was one of the most intense wintertime storms ever observed in that region: air pressure at the surface dipped as low as 928 millibars (27.40 inches of mercury), comparable to the pressure in a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.</p></blockquote> <p><a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/8243/hybridization-sandy">https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/8243/hybridization-sandy</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483274&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="OQLlC3BFD4f8vOK2HoE5HZ-SYlDdJcT96cES_52ZMQM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 21 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483274">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483275" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498057944"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well not unusual, just much later much further north much bigger and did more damage than anyone had seen before. Because it had sub-hurricane wind speeds. And it's impossible for a merkin to wrap their heads around a multi-dimensional rating. One dimension only, please!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483275&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="vPiDNqgOgWbk_k7HSFKQWMgnaoOuIIa39lpuYnBjvs8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 21 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483275">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483276" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498128020"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Betula,<br /> “Well I’m still waiting for dick to say why he thought ACE was low”<br /> He's now claiming he meant to say why he thought this was relevant, which is in the rest of his post in a verbose way. Greg Laden thought it was relevant enough to give a detailed answer, but for some it was a thought crime.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483276&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="NNL7xoHFCzeStf_QqXuFVzIWpduwL79WGf2yGL0ejng"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483276">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483277" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498132170"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>No, I asked what made him think it. Your stupid posts make me think you're an idiot.</p> <p>Cause.</p> <p>Effect.</p> <p>So what made him think to tell us about ACE in a discussion about total storm activity? Because I would prefer to let the fuckwit hang himself rather than assert what I think is patently obvious.</p> <p>"He’s now claiming he meant to say why he thought this was relevant"</p> <p>I wanted, and said right there, to know what made him think that post's assertion of what he said he thought. I don;t care why he might think it relevant, since he may actually admit it was 100% irrelevant and thought so at the time.</p> <p>Fuck, he may even have some "reason" why it actually is the same thing, therefore validly a claim, as he clearly wishes to imply without the danger of actually saying anything, that greg is incorrect and so is Emmanuel 2005.</p> <p>Did he "think" it relevant (in which case, how)? Did he think it irrelevant (in which case, why bring it up)? Did he think it was a gotcha (in which case he's definitely stupid and shit stirring)? Or did he get told to say it (in which case, who)?</p> <p>Sure the original post asking why he thought that could be miscontrued, but the posts made later indicate precisely what I meant and is conformal to the question posed earlier. Yet dick didn't notice and you belatedly notice but refuse to accept that there was an error in comprehension on your part due to multiple meanings being possible.</p> <p>Which, I assume (and I will assume since you seem so hostile to actually asking before I leap to a conclusion about motives) is because you want to pretend that somehow I asked the "wrong question" and are hiding it to poison the well as if somehow his mistake can be ignored as long as anyone questioning him can be made out to be incorrect somehow too.</p> <p>You know, straight party politics covering your ideological brother because you can't afford to let truth dent your rightness.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483277&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="6QTw7Cw6DNagJCauDwjxZuRLIZ0NHHf-hlL7J6MbKRM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483277">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483278" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498141820"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow. Wow, I think I've got a 'true believer' here. The evidence is weak for increased anomolous events outside natural variation. </p> <p>Carbon has been pretty good for people -- I must admit this even though I propose that carbon from the biomass derived from hemp would be loads better than than that derived from current wars over oil.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483278&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UACeN-5etuHCgSkF74TkLoDDjQudP7nrvxH7TSR52AY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Gilbert (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483278">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483279" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498142656"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow:</p> <p>ACE seemed relevant to me because it is a measure of Hurricane energy (accumulated cyclone energy). ACE is low (in the Northern Hemisphere). Greg says that is actually misleading, referring to another measure of energy. But Greg's data only really seems to go up to 2000 and 2004 - so what about the last 13 years?</p> <p>So I asked about ACE because it seems to contradict Greg.</p> <p>That is why I mentioned ACE.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483279&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ZSGIAYeMYUM-GHCZEgGyAwnWvNJ2TFgA_5X_ZojN1RI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483279">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483280" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498149174"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Wow, I think I’ve got a ‘true believer’ here. "</p> <p>Of what?</p> <p>"The evidence is weak for increased anomolous events outside natural variation. "</p> <p>OK, but why tell me? The IPCC reports say exactly that. Do you "believe" that I believe differently from the IPCC?</p> <p>"Carbon has been pretty good for people "</p> <p>Nonsequitur and irrelevant.</p> <p>I think we have a reality denier here.</p> <p>"carbon from the biomass derived from hemp would be loads better "</p> <p>I suppose that would indicate why you came out with the odd statement "I think I’ve got a ‘true believer’ here.": you've smashed your brains out on gange.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483280&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="7bBk9-nnocuBZx-JnU0P-Yv2Hdw6WugUS4aEriwKvHk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483280">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483281" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498149318"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>" ACE is low"</p> <p>So what?</p> <p>"ACE seemed relevant to me because it is a measure of Hurricane energy"</p> <p>But that's irrelevant. Do you not know what ACE stands for?</p> <p>"So I asked about ACE because it seems to contradict Greg."</p> <p>OH! So you DON'T know what ACE means!</p> <p>OK, yeah, you're a moron, then. total storm intensity is not the same thing. That's why they use different words.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483281&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="8pX5HLu8W-Rhtf9CPdi9wtBdLeqw8z1gtbflY9P8vuE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483281">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483282" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498190718"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Yes, what would ACE, which is a tool used to categorize North Atlantic hurricane seasons as being above normal, near normal, or below normal, have to do with a post about Atlantic hurricane seasons?</p> <p>And why would Greg use a chart from 2005, leaving out activity (or lack of) over the past 12 years?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483282&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="O2T7l4VcBGSnzmoMesCmghAe2FNyyd-kimTuCqCDUd4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Betula (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483282">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483283" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498217966"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Figure 1 of this 2008 paper shows the two indices to be about the same, and the positive trend comes from using the 1970s start date.<br /><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1">http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483283&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Abrubu5RUQSkA_M4chO4qATXrxOfM7VT6Ki574q_XRA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483283">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483284" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498219922"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>However, that does not prove they are the same thing, therefore despite being "about the same" in the selected period, they aren't.</p> <p>So confusing the two is complete idiocy.</p> <p>Moreover,now having scanned the paper, it's also not talking about the same thing either. PDI this time.</p> <p>YOUR idiocy.</p> <p>" the positive trend comes from using the 1970s start date."</p> <p>For this claim to be true, you have to show that the trend varies because of the start date. But there is nothing there that indicates this to be the case and that seems to be your own singular ass-pull of a claim based on, well, fuck all as far as I can tell.</p> <p>So three claims made, 0 out of 3 valid from data presented. And all in one sentence!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483284&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UwXQyjAC9C15oyUUHH9aUBI2U8GQjC0MZJ2VFZhKlCM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483284">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483285" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498238720"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>&gt; three claims made, 0 out of 3 valid from data presented. And all in one sentence</p> <p>You took a lot longer to get everything wrong, and still missed the one error that was made- data is thru 2008, but the paper is later.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483285&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="EpNLGoozc6ltuntRwAZYq-3oWY32N3Z47BXnJSlmCjc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483285">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483286" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498269663"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Nope, incorrect.</p> <p>Nor have you managed to earth up what you found.</p> <p>I take it you didn't take time to read Landsea, right? You just read "adjustment in 1970 according to Landsea" and leapt, like any shitheaded denier to a claim of data fiddling to make a trend.</p> <p>Because 2008 is not 1970 and you claimed the trend change was due to 1970. No evidence of the trend change, no evidence it would be due to 1970.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483286&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="dMCIkExLt5pNmcgKKZA8yygpGNmbdGe-espN9E9ay_g"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483286">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483287" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498269838"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Oh, and so what if the paper was later? YOU were the one bringing it up in a conversation where "dick" claimed ACE was relevant and showed greg "wrong". If you bring up an irrelevant (by ending too early) paper to that claim, you can't blame me for not bothering with what it didn't cover. It's ending is just another proclamation you have made and only AFTER the earlier post I responded to.</p> <p>So you managed a double fail in the latest BS post. Ironny? Is that you?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483287&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="o0hWz-zetPIcnaFPgRBTcAt5hLF6YA--hHh8nFut-Lk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483287">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483288" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498276086"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Bottom Line:<br /> "it is likely that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency in HURDAT since the late-1800s is primarily due to improved monitoring"</p> <p>"We are unaware of a climate change signal that would result in an increase of only the shortest duration storms, while such an increase is qualitatively consistent with what one would expect from improvements with observational practices"</p> <p>"We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is not significantly distinguishable from zero (Figure 2)."</p> <p> "Thus the historical tropical storm count record does not provide compelling evidence for a greenhouse warming induced long-term increase"</p> <p><a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/">https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-st…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483288&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="c6ZoFzyOc_K6c8DFBeW5_nwNYhSiLfEfkO25h9BTeBc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Betula (not verified)</span> on 23 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483288">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483289" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498309853"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>&gt;You just read “adjustment in 1970 according to Landsea” and leapt, like any shitheaded denier to a claim of data fiddling to make a trend.</p> <p>Nope. 1970 is from Greg's chart, has nothing to do with Landsea.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483289&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="OhgLx716OLkThTN5cKAciRZSnGZLC8Ep_LJ0JPDWMKM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 24 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483289">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483290" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498310142"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"1970 is from Greg’s chart"</p> <p>No, it is from the paper and post you supplied:</p> <p><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1">http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1</a></p> <p>See the graph? The dates? 1970 is in there. See the text in the paper you supplied a link to? 1970 is in there. See the post that you made that link? 1970 is in there from you.</p> <p>Stop lying so BADLY, "mike".</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483290&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="9uhZ15hOW_RkCuOuuyhF8caE9SYhGgtRRS0zQHrGUj0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 24 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483290">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483291" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498312300"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Oh, another indicator that this latest post from you is a really terrible attempt to lie, "mike" is that the claim you made in defence of my reply was "data is thru 2008, but the paper is later", but Greg's graph only goes to 2004 and the paper it comes from is 2005, neither after or even on 2008</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483291&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yF8PUulnWQ1y08kTTsqonezpQ1nAuEsnsAtfM-YDLZc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 24 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483291">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483292" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498322632"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Reading comprehension doesn't work for you I guess.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483292&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="dvQP2f1xfuFaCdkIYhfuwvQuTLHkr1v7EZ6SXgUVIbI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MikeN (not verified)</span> on 24 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483292">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1483293" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1498341124"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Claims contradicted by evidence again, "mike"?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1483293&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="WmlyMrX1jSWV67212oz1KZ4JaiAnt63os0t3dkbT4QY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 24 Jun 2017 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1483293">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2017/06/19/atlantic-hurricane-season-2017%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Mon, 19 Jun 2017 17:50:47 +0000 gregladen 34427 at https://scienceblogs.com Hurricane Otto https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/11/21/hurricane-otto <span>Hurricane Otto</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>This is a bit late in the year for an Atlantic Hurricane. The season normally runs from June 1st through November 30th, but that includes a bit of buffer time. </p> <p>Otto is a tropical storm that will turn into a hurricane on Wednesday, probably, and make landfal near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Expect coastal flooding as well as serious inland flooding. The storm will arrive in the Pacific on Friday as a tropical depression. </p> <p>Then, we'll have to see if it turns into something in the Eastern Pacific basin.</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Mon, 11/21/2016 - 14:03</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-otto" hreflang="en">Hurricane Otto</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1475331" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479804609"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Interesting times. Surely, everyone will recall the Hurricane Season of 2005, the same year as such memorables as Katrina and Wilma, that had a very long duration (into 2006) and included at least category 1 storm from late November into early December (Epsilon). It was the longest lasting December hurricane on record.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475331&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="uro1IDmEMeqfeuVHe8NlzGmNjguFt7v5PbK9NaAH3Vw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Bruce Jensen (not verified)</span> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475331">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1475332" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479811475"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It is interesting that a hurricane could maybe turn into something in the Pacific.</p> <p>Have other hurricanes turned into typhoons before? Or a cyclone?</p> <p>Just wondering.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475332&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="DIrVbMFF9D-4gg5q-UCWMwUH84mSysrukhjnTc7pXQA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475332">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1475333" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479811584"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Never mind - I looked it up:</p> <p><a href="http://www.livescience.com/47247-how-hurricane-becomes-super-typhoon.html">http://www.livescience.com/47247-how-hurricane-becomes-super-typhoon.ht…</a></p> <p>It looks like this has happened before.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475333&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="XT9dki-ktf-ho1VWygcXzyM7sVt-1-E_Y4xz0ZJvwbo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475333">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1475334" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479811979"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In the Eastern Pacific they are still called Hurricanes. </p> <p>But yes, it is not that uncommon for an Atlantic tropical storm of some level to provide the seed for a Pacific named tropical storm. Happens about every five years.</p> <p>Ten named storms have been crossovers, the most recent was Hermine, a tropical storm that was almost a hurricane, which made the odd move of going from Pacific to Atlantic. Almost all the rest have been Atlantic to Pacific. The last Atlantic to Pacific crossover was Hurricane Cesar (Atlantic) which turned into Hurricane Douglas in the Pacific. That was in the late 90s, and it was a killer storm, causing a lot of damage.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475334&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="k_qbZWPl_D1YiLMO8G9momGvJaVudOVcMnl2B3ytc_0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475334">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1475335" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479822283"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Now I wonder if one storm has ever been all three types?</p> <p> A cyclone, a hurricane and a typhoon (no particular order).</p> <p>My googling couldn't find the answer to this question.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475335&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yVXwza9qp5eaQ5c3u3QgIXraZlYto5pDoej-HCDzFJI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">RickA (not verified)</span> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475335">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1475336" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479826249"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I am 99.9999 percent sure that has not ever happened.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475336&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="bpvf8sPYGJ9eYLOpz6DL3A-CGkfhZXSRh1Yz7RBqwuU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 22 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475336">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1475337" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1479894229"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In order to be a hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone (and it would be in that order), it would have to form in the Central or Eastern Pacific (east of 180 degrees longitude), proceed into the Western Pacific, then cross the Malay Peninsula into the Bay of Bengal. I'm not aware of any tropical cyclone that has done the last; it would be rare in part because the peninsula is so far south (even further south than where Hurricane Otto is), though I would not claim it's impossible.</p> <p>I know of at least one storm, John, which formed in the Central Pacific as a hurricane, became a typhoon when it crossed the International Date Line, and became a hurricane again after crossing the International Date Line a second time after recurving. That's the storm which holds the record for longest observed hurricane track. I doubt that a hurricane that did this could remain far enough south to cross the Malay Peninsula; recurvature before it reaches the Philippines/Taiwan/Japan is more likely.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1475337&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ueg-D4D2IPf8Jj_5RFGPpmI4SVB9ox6cD4Jl73geeKY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 23 Nov 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1475337">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2016/11/21/hurricane-otto%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Mon, 21 Nov 2016 19:03:35 +0000 gregladen 34183 at https://scienceblogs.com Getting #Matthew Wrong https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/10/07/getting-matthew-wrong <span>Getting #Matthew Wrong</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>This morning I was forced to do the "get off my lawn" thing with the kids at the bus stop. They were systematically destroying the pavement around the common mailbox area down the street from my house, throwing chunks in the street. I lined them up and read them the riot act. They are children, so they can be excused for bering a bit stupid about life, and the guy down the street telling them to get off the lawn is part of the learning process for them.</p> <p>And now it's your turn. </p> <p>The right wing yahoos have already started yelling about conspiracies related to Hurricane Matthew. "They are telling us lies, that it will be a total disaster because of [some dumbass reason nobody quite understands]" This has lead, on the internet, to "don't leave your homes, Obama and Shillary will be down here to take away your guns" (OK, I admit, that last one was me being sarcastic, but there are similar tweets out there."</p> <p>Let me explain something to you. </p> <p>Matthew is a very large and dangerous hurricane that was predicted to go on a course the center line of which (where the eye would be, approximately) would parallel the coast, just off shore, for a long distance, for hundreds of miles. At any moment the eye could shift left or right, the predictions said. Also, the size of the hurricane force wind field could widen or narrow. Therefore, if the hurricane did as predicted, it could seriously affect the entire coast, knocking down power lines and trees, doing other damage. </p> <p></p><h2>RELATED: <a href="http://ikonokast.com/2016/10/07/interview-michael-mann/">An Interview With Michael Mann</a> (in which we discuss Matthew and other matters). </h2> <p>So far, that is exactly what has happened. No deviation. You hear "the eye moved east." Bullshit. There was never a line on which the eye was to move.There was a center line of a prediction cone, and the storm has stayed right in the predicted area. It was alway predicted to be about where it is, plus or minus. It is well within the plus or minus. </p> <p>Every here and there, the predictions indicated, the hurricane could produce a dangerous storm tide. Each section of coast has a different potential for this because of its shape. The exact timing of high tide matters. The storm's exact configuration and distance from the coast matters. So you can't predict in detail what will happen, but what you CAN do is produce a likely scenario in the worst case. If all the factors come together, and you live in a house in this region, you are truly fuckered. The Hurricane turns left a bit, or a certain band of winds interacts with an embayment just right at high tide, or whatever. If you live in that house, and you do not act as though this may happen to you (i.e., evacuate), then you are a dumbass. </p> <p>A maximum storm tide of something around 11 feet, sometimes more, sometimes only about 6 feet or so, was (and is for the next day or two) predicted for the entire coast from some point north of Palm Beach all the way up through Georgia and beyond. </p> <p>This does not mean, and it never meant, that there would be an 11 foot flood covering the entire coast. No. It. Never. Meant. That. If most of the Atlantic coast from South Florida to Bogna Riva does not flood to 11 feet killing all the people and puppies and kittehs, THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE PREDICTIONS WERE WRONG. </p> <p>This morning NBC actually had a snarky local yahoo meteorologist on (the commenters and Al Roker were visibly embarrassed after the fact) who went through the whole storm chaser routine ...</p> <p> "... Here I am in my car. Here I am getting out of my car. Her I am cutting through the bushes, telling you breathlessly: wait 'til you see this, look at what Imma show you now' etc. etc....."</p> <p>Then he brought the camera out on the beach and there was nothing there but some waves.</p> <p>"See? They said there would be a storm surge. There is no storm surge. Nothing happened here."</p> <p>They cut away from that dude, I'm afraid because he was counter sensationalizing, not because he was being all Rush Limbaugh, though the latter was clearly true. Roker and the others hinted that the storm tide in that area, had there been one, would have passed hours ago so of course it is not visible. Etc. </p> <p>This is a very smart thing on the part of the right wing. They were prepared for this hurricane in this manner. Somebody figured this out, got the word around, and they are pulling off an excellent and well designed public image manipulation event for Matthew. Here is what they figured out.</p> <p>1) The hurricane is going to be near something close to 500 miles of coast.</p> <p>2) There will be breathless yammering about the dangers along 500 miles of coast, recruiting perhaps 40 or more storm studs, national and local, and hundreds of tweeting meteorologists, etc. etc. going on about how bad it will be.</p> <p>3) Even if the storm seriously damages one place, kills people in part of Georgia or whatever, it will not be 500 miles of 11 foot flood everywhere, like promised.</p> <p>4) Therefore the storm was hyped, by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama flying overhead in their Black Helicopters, swooping in to take our guns and bibles. </p> <p>5) In the end there will be 500 miles worth of things that were said would happen but never happened, and maybe five miles of real disaster in some feckless coastal town.</p> <p>So that's the real getting Matthew wrong. A public image coup for the right wing, the climate deniers. They won this storm. </p> <p>Got it? Great. Now get the hell off my lawn. And get it right next time (giving stern look to the climate communicators). </p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Fri, 10/07/2016 - 02:25</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/climate-change" hreflang="en">climate change</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/getting-it-wrong" hreflang="en">Getting It Wrong</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-matthew" hreflang="en">Hurricane Matthew</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/matthew" hreflang="en">Matthew</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/right-wing-yammering" hreflang="en">Right Wing Yammering</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473895" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475827237"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"(giving stern look to the climate communicators)"</p> <p>Maybe this will help:<br /><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/06/how-to-make-climate-change-deniers-care-flattery">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/06/how-to-make-clima…</a></p> <p>In other news, dogs smell time with their noses:<br /><a href="http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/10/an-incredible-thing-dogs-can-do-with-their-noses-tell-time.html?mid=twitter_scienceofus">http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/10/an-incredible-thing-dogs-can-do-wi…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473895&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Ye2r0qJRadFQIiWcEbjFuWDiGaXrUXMZorD4CBILxjY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="" content="Obstreperous Applesauce">Obstreperous A… (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473895">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473896" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475831729"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Obstreperous Applesauce - thanks that article on dogs explains a lot about why my crazy mutt acts the way she does :)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473896&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="iFmvMSq34ZmuQqoMbeA-O1aVAGshrwCcDqpoAj2Z-_I"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Alder (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473896">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473897" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475831949"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OT but I thought "reading the riot act" was a particularly British expression, is it a common phrase across the pond?</p> <p>fond memories of my parents reading it to me though!!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473897&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="C9RpOjsQm96mFxUj-wIDQNqJqqmtRflxdILPZpV7CX8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">tadaaa (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473897">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473898" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475832583"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Yes, <i>very</i> common in the States...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473898&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-k86L2JGBQWWEukfxiRDq3427qg2IPIuDhf4GlvVe3Y"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Brainstorms (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473898">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473899" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475832757"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Also quite common here in Western Canada</p> <p>A surprisingly good explanation for why Matthew grew so quickly from Russia Times - surprising for its source.</p> <p><a href="http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/videos/video/now-every-storm-is-a-climate-change-storm">http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/videos/video/now-every-storm-is-a-cl…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473899&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="_QKRrfI8fXeSZBy_2OAGBSQWSKY1dZ-GuziINTMPwDQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Alder (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473899">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473900" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475833063"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://live.reuters.com/Event/Hurricane_Matthew_6/396463796">http://live.reuters.com/Event/Hurricane_Matthew_6/396463796</a> in Haiti the death tgoll is now over 800 so just a mild storm /s</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473900&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="iamoz5lCLl2ZKwwFqyrOVirIA0m3Dw-39H0k22SFLhE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Alder (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473900">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473901" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475835105"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>thanks Doug and Brainstorm - did not know that</p> <p>re the horrific death toll in Haiti - (the BBC are now reporting over 800 :-( )</p> <p>will the "skeptics" use it as an excuse to play "the problem is poverty" card </p> <p>and cheap accessible energy is a route out of poverty</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473901&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Xk4QWb7fG8jbiaMoa1vW_tywlti7PACoH9_ofk_vfbg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">tadaaa (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473901">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473902" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475839007"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Reading the Riot Act is very common in the states. But, even as I wrote it I wondered about its actual meaning and origin. </p> <p>I mean, I know what I mean when I say it, but I also know what I mean when I say "tow the line" and I've got that one totally wrong.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473902&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="AzLA83k44BoH6NJNJsY0lMTuQXyCsJZiIG_j0Fan-Xg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473902">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473903" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475839169"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Yes, Mike Man and I talk about the storm and the rapid spinup here as well:</p> <p><a href="http://ikonokast.com/2016/10/07/interview-michael-mann/">http://ikonokast.com/2016/10/07/interview-michael-mann/</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473903&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CSOIiPCR9wlAdV9Bfl5qMJ40C38GfPMWFA8LlIG2-uU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473903">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473904" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475839258"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@ Greg</p> <p>yes that's why it caught my eye - it has a very specific meaning in British history/law</p> <p>and literally means "reading the riot act"</p> <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riot_Act">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riot_Act</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473904&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CwtlJoFSHtr0Comtcuw-YBjUMUvzW0mbBxZmCr-ZfBQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Tadaaa (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473904">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473905" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475841213"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>I also know what I mean when I say “tow the line” and I’ve got that one totally wrong.</p></blockquote> <p>That one properly should be "toe the line". As in walking exactly along a line laid out by someone else. Which makes much more metaphorical sense than a boat or land-based conveyance dragging a bunch of rope behind, as "tow the line" would imply.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473905&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-99xD0zoyj82Q_VaYlKUbfDf1JLZCevtz1Dn3_zaa1E"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473905">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473906" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475842048"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I know.</p> <p>But I grew up in a culture where everyone thought it meant "tow the line" as in a canal boat's line. Because we had canals everywhere, and there were these boats and these workers who had to tow the line. Which were sometimes mules. </p> <p>So if you have a job to do, you better tow the line. That actually is so much better than walking along some dumbass line somebody made that I tend to prefer it.</p> <p>I've heard people say that toe the line is a sports metaphor, as in the line of scrimmage. If you toe the line you might go the whole nine yards.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473906&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="7lALU4_wbTGXjYspgiTLwtx0KSD9bWDErZkikLYpQ8o"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473906">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473907" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475842316"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>But.. but... but... If you stub your foot while doing so, and make those barges pile up, ...</p> <p>Do you end up with a case of "toe jam" or "tow jamb"?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473907&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="p1C5nNZqrnrpUZoiEo22cbXKK-kCO94cYAzSr63ZEHI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Brainstorms (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473907">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473908" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475844935"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"But I grew up in a culture where everyone thought it meant “tow the line” as in a canal boat’s line."</p> <p>Odd - that's what I was told as well all those years ago when I was a kid, and central Michigan has no canals at all.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473908&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FRUBxeNWUWbbRoyHTiDRzG8XNsgtbtLR8J23JbzCD0c"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473908">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473909" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475845990"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>According to George Orwell's essay <a href="http://www.orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit/">Politics and the English Language</a> (written in 1946), the metaphor was in fact "toe the line". He notes it as an example of a dying metaphor and notes specifically that:</p> <blockquote><p>Some metaphors now current have been twisted out of their original meaning without those who use them even being aware of the fact. For example, <b>toe the line</b> is sometimes written as <b>tow the line</b>.</p></blockquote> <p>By 1946 it was no longer usual practice for canal workers to physically tow the boats along the canal; the towing was done by barges. Besides which, if you were pulling a boat along with a rope you held in your hand, you would be "towing the boat", not "towing the line". You tow whatever is at the other end of the line. So this business of "tow the line" referring to barges on canals is post hoc folk etymology.</p> <p>Given that Orwell was calling the metaphor stale in 1946, I doubt it was originally a sports metaphor, although it's possible that rugby was involved. Most modern sports were only formalized in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, so the original metaphor, if it originated in sport, should have still been in living memory.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473909&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2l5dWOy-SV2mC8CgGXtzb9AA7RnZSPvWhVEpW_EPgew"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473909">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473910" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475846253"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@ Greg - # 9</p> <p>thank you for the link </p> <p>I am always struck accessibility of climate science and scientist</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473910&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="TeXVDbBd0U0rHhoRJOwO3DYdUgydECGkrGMiMzPA1qE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">tadaaa (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473910">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473911" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475847047"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473911&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="B9sIO3AAiuC72vejhLlPo3cRe0DvY3D80ChxaQcTiGM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473911">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473912" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475847833"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I figured with some of the ordinary conspiracy theories floating about (NOAA is exaggerating/Hillary Clinton/hyping climate change etc) there were bound to be some more extreme ones. Google "haarp Matthew" - you'll find that there are :(</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473912&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="1dARO227g5k8gy5GWMDalx_BVhiZy4avkEZa3OJ5bVU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sou (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473912">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473913" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475858391"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Sou: Oh, it is very very bad. </p> <p>You don't need to take a test to be a YouTube video producer!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473913&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="XkKh9XQDxqoG3Ic3J3qA3Jefu9oxmsqsn8wJpvS8tpA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473913">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473914" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475858619"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>" So this business of “tow the line” referring to barges on canals is post hoc folk etymology."</p> <p>Well, it is what we who grew up on the canals thought. We didn't think that was the origin of the term (not etymology). We thought that is what the term meant. So, folk, yes. </p> <p>I'm sure this happens all the time with expressions. They get said a different way, become widely used that way, and meaning comes along from somewhere and gloms onto the expression. </p> <p>Or, multiple origins. Not likely in this case, but quite possible with "Straw Man." </p> <p>BTY, the line we are towing is attached to a barge. A barge does not pull a boat. A boat might pull a barge, though.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473914&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="03fCCdyE7rXr_2sx5OyTyokRau_PD4Mg8DhwqVZP9wM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473914">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473915" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475858700"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Dean: "Odd – that’s what I was told as well all those years ago when I was a kid, and central Michigan has no canals at all."</p> <p>Central Michigan was presumably settled by people from the Erie Canal Zone!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473915&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="KSuwPuiaHXT_HbU3Y3FWRDS5QTEWyTcRW85vuNhl4Yk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473915">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473916" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475862318"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Greg: I grew up just north of Lansing, in Clinton Country, just outside the town of DeWitt - both named, according to local historians, for DeWitt Clinton.</p> <p>For what it's worth. :)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473916&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="3r_rKxpMl-P9DTnC0OD5VI8KWDCCimBDw8OThvlAncI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473916">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473917" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475862357"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Of course that would be Clinton <b>County</b>, not Country. </p> <p>Male typing syndrome strikes again. :(</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473917&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Vh8WNUV-B1Ugznic5eJrqozFODkuU4IJvCNJaKE21gk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dean (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473917">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473918" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475863907"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Dean, well, there you go then! Makes sense.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473918&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="OaqQpoEhCRdE15XxDRcMhEWK50QqIafAf-zNlkVQD60"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473918">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473919" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475878567"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>ah, "forcing the penance" in finnish.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473919&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="hIIoja8DvSOh6-twCEeHJh4pY2rUKF5LhO9P4Ovz_q0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">jyyh (not verified)</span> on 07 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473919">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473920" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475899234"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>toe the line</p> <p>don't get ahead of yourself</p> <p>In track, you toe the line. You don't start before the start signal. This goes back as long as people have had footraces, which is a long time.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473920&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="w8O647wSPKI1Q7VznmJG29TxH2X-6NhwXwKGFKtaSRk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">zebra (not verified)</span> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473920">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473921" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475907856"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>FWIW I've always understood it to be British naval slang dating back at least to the 1800s. Crew, assembled before officers, would be told to 'toe the line' simply meaning align the front rank to the planking of the deck. Sailors were not instructed in drill like infantry and were not able to form up into a parade with the same facility. The 'line' would have been very visible against the light wood of the daily-scoured deck as the gaps between the planks of the deck were caulked with pitch.</p> <p>So 'toeing the line' in essence means demonstratble deference to authority.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473921&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="zxTAxbSfhccZHcGRPwZ2Tan2OTrzVc1KYPkevVaUjnY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">BBD (not verified)</span> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473921">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473922" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475920248"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Defeat the GOP denial machine<br /><a href="http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/10/08/real-solution-climate-polarization-defeat-gop-denial-machine">http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/10/08/real-solution-climate-pola…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473922&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ApPFY5NTuo5LpgHOsGwaXvwxg_De9oONBxmVG7CAkFc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="" content="Obstreperous Applesauce">Obstreperous A… (not verified)</span> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473922">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2016/10/07/getting-matthew-wrong%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Fri, 07 Oct 2016 06:25:39 +0000 gregladen 34106 at https://scienceblogs.com Tropical Storm Nicole https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/10/04/tropical-storm-nicole <span>Tropical Storm Nicole</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic. </p> <p>The average number of named storms in the Atlantic, based on a fairly long climatology, is about 10.1. An average of 5.9 become hurricanes. </p> <p>So, this year are more than average named storms. But is it more than predicted?</p> <p>On average, the expert forecasts suggested anywhere from 12 to 18 named storms. We are well past the midpoint of the 2016 season, and are just about to reach the midpoint of these forecasted ranged, and there is still plenty of time left for a few more storms. The largest number predicted, as the upper end of the range, was 18, with several forecasts suggesting 14, 15, 16, or 17. So, it looks like the forecasts are all going to come in light, and this will be a noticeably stronger than average yer.</p> <p>Why am I talking about the season overall instead of Nicole? Because Nicole isn't very interesting. Probably won't even become a hurricane. Nicole will wander around ay out to sea for a while, and go away in a week or so, most likely. </p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Tue, 10/04/2016 - 05:22</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473878" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475591636"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You said ;</p> <p>"The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic." </p> <p>and also </p> <p>"On average, the expert forecasts suggested anywhere from 12 to 18 named storms. We are well past the midpoint of the 2016 season, and are just about to reach the midpoint of these forecasted ranged," </p> <p>If the forecast range only goes as high as 18 then we re wll past the midpoint of 9.</p> <p>I'm confused -(I know, easily done)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473878&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CQQhP1a2MCpeSDek8bJ4i_1WQE4s3Uv7IPG9cGH_vHE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Alder (not verified)</span> on 04 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473878">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473879" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475595243"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Doug, the expected range is 12..18 hurricanes, which has a midpoint <i>of the expected range</i> of (18-12)/2+12= 15. So 14 is indeed just about the midpoint of that expected range of hurricanes.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473879&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="LczDBTWaS37AncmhKMe2HpJpE1lc-Dv5XiWvkBbE8ow"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Brainstorms (not verified)</span> on 04 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473879">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473880" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475616881"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Brainstorms - thanks now I understand</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473880&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="8wuYYZg4fJEFvyOoT3g01RmQnCYE0RqVziAeN65diIg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Alder (not verified)</span> on 04 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473880">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473881" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475704512"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>With the season overall that's just Atlantic isn't it? </p> <p>Do we have any global trend or count across all the planet because that would actually be quite interesting to see &amp; know. </p> <p>Certainly here in Adelaide we've had record rainfall and a number of severe storms including one that blacked out our entire state for a few hours the other week which has , sadly if predictably also become a political football. </p> <p>(See : <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-29/sa-weather:-no-link-between-blackout-and-renewables-expert-says/7887052">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-29/sa-weather:-no-link-between-black…</a> ) </p> <p>I can't remember ever having a wetter year here although it isn't a La Nina yet officially (our Bureau of Meteorology is saying only La Nina watch last time I checked.) which is only anecdata I know but still be interesting to, well see if something is happening planetwide with excessive or abnormal storm numbers. </p> <p>Shades of Hansen being proven right sooner than expected with his <i>Storms of my Grandchildren</i> text?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473881&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="EN5EuDcjsgU6Xt9z59h729hRQeINY8T2P4UJFQJfoKg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 05 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473881">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473882" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475738725"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The predictions Greg mentioned are just for the (North) Atlantic, yes. Records for other basins are not nearly as complete in the pre-satellite era, so there is less of a basis for making such forecasts. Thanks to records kept aboard merchant ships crossing the Atlantic, we have pretty good coverage of those tropical cyclones back to 1851--it's possible we missed a few very short-duration systems in the pre-satellite era (the sort that would get one or maybe two advisories before dissipating), but that's it.</p> <p>Tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic are quite rare. There are bigger gaps in shipping lane coverage than in the North Atlantic, but the total number that have been observed can be counted on the fingers of your hands, and only one (which made landfall in Santa Caterina state, Brazil, in 2004 as a Category 2 storm) reached hurricane strength.</p> <p>As I understand it, the storms you have been seeing in Australia lately are non-tropical. There is some evidence that the frequency of intense non-tropical storms has been increasing. For many land areas we can rely on written records, although even in the best cases modern records only go back a bit more than a century, and many early- to mid-20th century temperature records are suspect because best siting practices had not yet been adopted worldwide.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473882&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="bQqqYfCZOxLYBHfdnRxVtmGHwSwSe6ErBTclJMRRRcw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 06 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473882">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2016/10/04/tropical-storm-nicole%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Tue, 04 Oct 2016 09:22:05 +0000 gregladen 34104 at https://scienceblogs.com Hurricane Matthew: The Scary Clown of Hurricanes! https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/09/27/tropical-storm-matthew-highly-likely-to-form-soon <span>Hurricane Matthew: The Scary Clown of Hurricanes!</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p><strong><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/10/06/florida-and-georgia-hurricane-matthew-is-aiming-at-you-now/">LATEST UPDATE IS HERE. CLICK HERE FOR LATEST UPDATE. </a></strong></p> <p></p><h1>Update: Wed Mid Day</h1> <p></p><h2>Matthew weakened, strengthened, strengthening</h2> <p>Matthew has interacted with land masses in Hispaniola and Cuba to the extent that the storm weakened quite a bit, losing its temporary Category 5 status. </p> <p>But, now Matthew is already showing signs of strengthening, and is likely to grow back to Category 3 or 4 status as it moves over the Bahamas. How bad a hurricane is when it makes contact with land depends in large part on the angle of the attack, and Matthew will likely be affecting several spots in the Bahamas at a particularly bad angle. </p> <p></p><h2>Bahamas are in serious danger now</h2> <p>This is the current warning for the Bahamas:</p> <blockquote><p>At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located<br /> near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Matthew is moving<br /> toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is<br /> expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,<br /> Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas today and tomorrow, and is<br /> expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday<br /> evening.</p> <p>Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson<br /> Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the<br /> next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3<br /> or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the<br /> east coast of Florida.</p></blockquote> <p>Rainfall in the Bahamas is likely to be 8-12 inches wiht up to 15 in isolated areas. </p> <p>A huge risk in this area is overtopping land masses with what may be a 10 foot storm surge. There may be large areas where fresh water, and fresh water plant communities, are destroyed, and may be affected for months or years to come, depending on exactly how this plays out. Nassau, the largest settlement in the area, is facing away from the storm's track, so it will probably be spared a serious storm surge.</p> <p></p><h2>Florida is most likely to be affected in the US</h2> <p>Matthew, as a Category 3 or Category 4 will be getting close to Florida during the day on Friday. Depending on exactly what the storm does, it may spend enough time over extra warm waters of the Gulf Stream where it may strengthen. The storm may or may not make landfall in Florida. If the storm does not technically make landfall, there is still a very high probability of serious effects on the coast, most likely near central Florida. </p> <p>NOTE: This is a perfectly good storm to display stupidity about landfall. <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2012/08/26/hurricane-landfall-what-is-it-and-dont-be-stupid-about-it/">Please avoid doing that</a>.<br /></p><h2>Matthew is the scary clown of hurricanes</h2> <p>Then comes the strange part. Jeff Masters of the Wunderblog writes:</p> <blockquote><p>Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity. While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week.</p></blockquote> <p>At this partiuclar moment, the red line in this graphic is the best guess for what may happen:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/euro-highprob-oct5-1.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/euro-highprob-oct5-1-610x370.png" alt="euro-highprob-oct5-1" width="610" height="370" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23029" /></a></p> <p>There is a version of this where Matthew crosses Florida and ends up in the Gulf. </p> <p>This scenario probably involves Matthew experiencing a lot of wind shear starting around the time it is near Florida and points north, and out at sea. This may actually make the storm a Category 1 hurricane or even weaker. But, if it makes this loop, the storm will be ina position to reform as a hurricane and menace the coast again.</p> <p>I wrote a piece of fiction in which a hurricane in this general area finds a loop like this, but never stops. It just keeps going and going. In that story, Florida is mostly inundated by sea level rise, so it is actually a somewhat different configuration, but the same idea. I wonder....</p> <p>Final point for now: Do not take your eyes off this storm.</p> <p>I'm posting <a href="http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/hurricane-matthew-2016">Climate Signals </a>causality widget for this storm here, hope it works for you!</p> <iframe src="http://www.climatesignals.org/sites/www.climatesignals.org/themes/signals/scripts/signalsEmbed.html#?event=4821" height="600px" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><p> </p><h1>Update: Tuesday AM</h1> <p></p><h2>Hurricane Matthew May Be One Of The Worst Hurricanes Ever</h2> <p>Such things are typically in reference to the region. There will always be Pacific hurricanes that are bigger than Atlantic hurricanes. Etc. But Matthew may be, for many years, on the list of the top few Hurricanes in the Caribbean region, in terms of strength and damage. The storm also has a number of odd features, some of which seem to be associated with anthropogenic global warming. </p> <p>Hurricane Matthew will almost certainly end up being one of the worst weather disasters of the decade. It may end up being the worst storm to affect the region around Jamaica, eastern Cuba, western Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, but especially the island of Hispaniola, where an unusual feature of this storm (see below) is causing extraordinary rainfall. Haiti is more clearly in the path of the storm, but the Dominican Republic could end up experiencing a serious disaster (see below). (See: <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-hits-haiti-their-strongest-hurricane-in-52-years">Matthew Hits Haiti, Their Strongest Hurricane in 52 Years</a>)</p> <p>In the end, it is likely that Matthew will be a poster child for social justice and climate change, since the storm is global warming enhanced and is affecting one of the most vulnerable populations in the world, in an area that is also geographically vulnerable.</p> <p></p><h2>Matthew's Mysterious Blob</h2> <p>Also, Matthew has a strange new feature. A "mysterious blob" formed within the storm several days ago. The blob is probably going to end up being one of those interesting weather patterns that Rush Limbaugh and Al Roker do battle over. It is a complicated and mysterious phenomenon perhaps never before recorded with modern instruments but anticipated by meteorologists in the textbooks. </p> <div style="width: 620px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/The_Blob_Of_Hurricane_Matthew.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/The_Blob_Of_Hurricane_Matthew-610x528.png" alt="Hurricane Matthew's Mysterious Blob" width="610" height="528" class="size-large wp-image-23025" /></a> Hurricane Matthew's Mysterious Blob </div> <p>Marshall Shepherd, of the University of Georgia (and former president of the American Meteorological Society) provides a discussion of the blob <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/10/03/why-have-we-seen-a-blob-east-of-hurricane-matthews-eye-and-why-it-should-concern-us/#7e8a3d303926">here</a>. I'm not going to try to recreate his discussion here because it is very preliminary, but I note that Matthew is record breaking (nearly) in how far south if formed as a large storm. Matthew shouldn't really have ever been born. But it was. And, the factors thought to be associated with Matthew's Mysterious Blob might be more likely to occur in a south-forming hurricane. </p> <p>The blob is basically a mini storm system, a small and quasi-independent tropical storm sort of, embedded within the larger hurricane. Like that birth mark that turns out to be your twin sibling. Maybe. Regardless of which metaphor works best, the blob could end up causing regions far to the east of the center of Matthew to experience rainfall of truly Biblical proportions. There are places on Hispaniola that may have rainfall amounts of well over three feet, and some wether stations near the blob have measured rainfall of well over 5 inches an hour. And, the storm is moving very slowly, so whatever the rainfall rate turns out to be at any given spot, it will add up to a large total, over rugged mud slide prone terrain occupied by under-built dwellings. </p> <p></p><h2>Matthew Is Global Warming Enhanced</h2> <p>Matthew is large, has a very low pressure core, very strong winds, and is moving slowly over waters that are, on the surface, warmer than normal because of global warming, which has contributed to the storm's strength. The Atlantic is expected (and observed) to have more vertical wind shear as an effect of global warming, which should attenuate the formation or strengthening of most hurricanes in the region, but Matthew formed and grew large anyway, somewhat baffling meteorologists. Perhaps, in the end, extremely warm water will trump wind shear in the formation of disastrous storms. </p> <p>Bob Henson <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-vaults-to-category-4-strength-uncertainty-clouds-the-forecast">wrote about this</a> a few days ago:</p> <blockquote><p>Vertical wind shear of up to 20 knots has plagued Matthew for most of the last two days, yet the storm has not only maintained its structure but grown at a ferocious rate. Dissertations may be written on how this happened! Working in Matthew’s favor has been a steadily moistening atmosphere along its westward path, which means that the shearing winds didn’t push too much dry air into Matthew. Once it developed a central core, Matthew was able to fend off the wind shear much more effectively.</p></blockquote> <p>But wait, there's more. </p> <p>The waters in this region are also warmer at depth (100-200 meters or so?) because of global waring. </p> <p>Again, <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-vaults-to-category-4-strength-uncertainty-clouds-the-forecast">Bob Henson</a>:</p> <blockquote><p>...water temperatures are unusually warm throughout the Caribbean (and the entire western North Atlantic), with an area of high oceanic heat content directly beneath Matthew’s path. Such deep oceanic heat allows a storm to strengthen without churning up cooler waters from below that could blunt the intensification.</p></blockquote> <p>The degree to which the ocean is heated not just on the surface, is reflected in this <a href="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2016273ca.jpg">graphic</a> from NOAA:</p> <div style="width: 620px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/Ocean_Heat_Content_Fueling_Hurricane_Matthew.jpg"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/Ocean_Heat_Content_Fueling_Hurricane_Matthew-610x291.jpg" alt="The ocean below Matthew is not just warm on the surface, but warm at depth, and very warm at that. " width="610" height="291" class="size-large wp-image-23026" /></a> The ocean below Matthew is not just warm on the surface, but warm at depth, and very warm at that. </div> <p>A hurricane can maintain strength by moving fast over warm water. The storm itself cools the surface of the water by using that energy in its own formation, and by roiling the surface waters, causing mixing from cooler water below. So, underneath a typical hurricane may be regions where the water is not really warm enough to form or sustain a hurricane. So, running fast avoids that. One might expect a slow moving hurricane to damage itself by using up some of this heat and dispersing it to depth. </p> <p>But, sometimes the water is at "hurricane warmth" (about 80 degrees F) for many tens of meters of depth. This allows the surface waters to contribute to the hurricane's maintenance, enhancing the overall strength of the storm. Katrina did this in the Gulf of Mexico (though that story is a bit complex so be careful what you infer here) and Haiyan did it in the Pacific.</p> <p>And now, Matthew is doing it in the Caribbean/Atlantic. </p> <p>My strong impression is that this warming at depth is an effect of excessive sea surface temperatures, and is an effect of anthropogenic global warming. It will take the meteorological research community a few years to catch up to this idea, but your dollars and my donuts are on the table on this one, and I'll be taking your money. This, if confirmed, could be thought of as a qualitative change in the nature of storms caused by global warming. </p> <p>Matthew may be, in a sense, a representative of a new kind of tropical storm. We've been seeing a lot of outlier storms lately. This includes storms that form really fast, like Patricia. Matthew did that to some extent as well. Matthew may be defying the effects of wind shear. Like Katrina and Haiyan, Matthew is feeding off of deep warm water. And, Matthew has this mysterious blob thing. Sandy was an outlier as well, a major hurricane that maintained strength way far north, then ate a Nor'Easter and became a Super Storm. Matthew is heading along a track similar to the one that took Sandy north (not uncommon, nothing odd about that). We don't know what will happen. But, if storms had real personalities (which they don't but this is a blog post, not a peer reviewed paper) I would expect Matthew to be on the hunt for a Nor'Easter to eat! </p> <p><strong><em><a href="http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/hurricane-matthew-2016">Please note that Climate Signals (BETA) has a page up now on Matthew, exploring the climate change connection.</a> </em></strong></p> <p></p><h2>Matthew may hit the US.</h2> <p>And, of course, Matthew may hit the US coast. This has always been a possibility, but now the chances are increased, with more models suggesting that the storm will track farther west than the previous models (on balance) suggested, with several models suggesting a US coast landfall. </p> <p>Where? </p> <p>Take your pick:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/Where_might_hurricane_matthew_hit_the_us_if_it_hits_the_us_at201614_ensmodel.gif"><img src="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/Where_might_hurricane_matthew_hit_the_us_if_it_hits_the_us_at201614_ensmodel.gif" alt="where_might_hurricane_matthew_hit_the_us_if_it_hits_the_us_at201614_ensmodel" width="640" height="480" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-23023" /></a></p> <p>That graphic is from <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=ensmodel&amp;MR=1">here</a>. </p> <p>Though it is hard to see in that depiction, it seems most likely that Matthew will skip Florida, but probably still hose it down and make waves. The more likely landfall scenarios are anywhere from the Carolinas north. </p> <p>This is a storm to watch very closely, and in which we shall remain in awe. </p> <p></p><h1>Older updates:</h1><br /><strong><br /> Update: Monday Mid Day</strong> <p>Matthew is a major hurricane, and is just starting to affect the area of eastern Cuba and western Haiti. Jamaica has already been affected and there are two or more dead there. </p> <p>Starting about now and over the next 36 to 48 hours, both countries will likely be seriously affected by this storm. I suppose three countries, technically, given that the US has a bit of territory in the region as well. Various islands in the Bahamas are also likely to be very strongly affected. </p> <p>This is a major hurricane, fairly large, very strong, and it will be spending enough time over very warm water to maintain its strength as a Category 4 hurricane, or nearly so, during this entire time.</p> <p>Most but not all models put the hurricane to the east of Florida, but not too far, and later, it is possible that it will strike the US east coast. The average of all the models says no, it will stay at sea, but there is not much certainty behind that prediction.</p> <p>Meanwhile, there is a another storm, which has somewhat <del datetime="2016-10-03T16:37:21+00:00">less than</del> <em>better than</em> a one in three chance of becoming Nicole, is quickly spinning up out in the Atlantic. </p> <p>Matthew will be a news maker and a disaster for a lot of people. But they are brown and not Americans, so few will take notice and science deniers will continue to say that nothing has happened in the Atlantic in years. But, Matthew is something, and it is a bigger something than it otherwise would have been because of increased sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic global warming.</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/vis_lalo-animated-1.gif"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/vis_lalo-animated-1-610x407.gif" alt="vis_lalo-animated" width="610" height="407" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23020" /></a><br /><strong>Update: Friday Mid Day</strong></p> <p>Matthew seems to have had, as a key characteristic, the capacity for very rapid change. What just became a hurricane about 24 hours ago is either now, or about to be, a Category 2 hurricane, and may well develop into something close to a Category 3 before hitting Cuba in a few days. The storm is expected to cross Cuba and perhaps stay as a hurricane the whole way, or to reform quickly, where it will <a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/vis_lalo-animated.gif"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/vis_lalo-animated-610x407.gif" alt="vis_lalo-animated" width="610" height="407" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23018" /></a> heading north.</p> <p>Vertical wind shear has been affecting the storm, which should be weakening it, but he weakening is not observed. Further wind shear is expected to slow rapid growth over the next day, but that may or may not happen. Then the shear lets up and strengthening begins. I have the sense that the predicted transition to ca 100 knot maximum sustained winds starting in about 24 hours is a bit conservative. </p> <p>Some earlier models had this hurricane possibly crossing into the Gulf of Mexico, but now it seems that all the models are in aagreement on a course that will parallel the Florida Coast (possibly getting very lose to Florida, but probably not) then heading up the atlantic. (See graphic above, <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=ensmodel">from Weather Underground</a>.) Most of the models have Matthew staying out at sea, but a number have the storm coming ashore in any of several possible locations from North Carolina Through Buzzards Bay, Mass, or perhaps even farther north. </p> <p>It is very likely that Matthew will have crossed Cuba and be north of the Island nation by around mid day next Wednesday, and it is certainly true that there will be a much better idea then as to where the storm will go next. </p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/at201614_sat_2.jpg"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/at201614_sat_2-610x458.jpg" alt="at201614_sat_2" width="610" height="458" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23016" /></a></p> <p><strong>Update: Thursday Mid Day</strong></p> <p>The hurricane status of Matthew is so fresh that the NWS, at this moment, has a mixture of products that call it a tropical storm and products that call it a hurricane. To be a hurricane, a storm's wind speed have to be 74 mph (64 knots) or more, and of course it has to be organized properly. The NWS Public Advisory and some of their graphical products call the storm a hurricane and the advisory indicates that maximum sustained winds are at 75 mph. </p> <p>Interestingly, the "discussion" which is usually the best source of information, has the storm turning into a hurricane in several hours from now. I have gotten the impression all along that the strengthening of this storm has been a bit quicker than usual. This may be an example of that phenomenon. </p> <p>The storm is expected to make landfall in a few days, as a hurricane, in Western Cuba, then head back out over the sea where it will likely strengthen owing to very warm waters. </p> <p>It is hard to say what this storm will eventually do, but there is a non trivial chance that it will make landfall as a hurricane in the US, a better chance that it will stay out to sea but be close enough to the coast to be bothersome, and a very good chance that it will eventually wack into Canada or someplace as an extratropical storm. Very few models seem to suggest that Matthew will be one of those mid-Atlantic hurricanes that remains boring until it finally dissipates. </p> <p><strong>Update: Wed Evening:</strong></p> <p>Just a quick note to say that about a third of the forecast models suggest that Matthew could become a major hurricane, and a smaller number even suggest a category 5 hurricane. </p> <p><strong>Update: Wed PM:</strong></p> <p>Matthew has formed into a named storm, and continues to head westward across the Caribbean. This is a region sometimes called the "Hurricane Graveyard" because various effects tend to reduce the chance of hurricane strengthening, and increase the chance of weakening.</p> <p>The storm is expected to upgrade to hurricane status by the end of the week, possibly late tomorrow. Later, it may make a right turn and head north toward Jamaica and eventually Cuba, or environs. Around the time the storm reaches Jamaica, it may be a Category 2 hurricane.</p> <p>The chances of this storm, as a tropical storm or hurricane, striking or affecting the US coast is not insignificant. Keep an eye on it.</p> <p>From <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=ensmodel">Weather Underground</a>, the "ensemble models" to give you an idea of what the computers are thinking:</p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/at201614_ensmodel.gif"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/at201614_ensmodel-610x458.gif" alt="at201614_ensmodel" width="610" height="458" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23014" /></a></p> <p><strong>Original Post:</strong></p> <p>The next <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/05/26/atlantic-hurricane-names-2016/">named</a> Atlantic storm will be Matthew. There is currently a well organized stormy blob in the Atlantic, heading for the Lesser Antilles, that has a very high probability of becoming a named storm, and that could happen by Wednesday or Thursday. </p> <p>This seems to be a fairly fast developing storm. Also, though it is way to early to say much, its possible futures are interesting. </p> <p>The storm could continue roughly westward and either encounter the Yucatan or western Cuba, then presumably on to the Gulf. But, it also seems very likely to make a hard right and squeeze between Cuba and Hispaniola, or perhaps traverse on e or the other, on the way to the Bhamas or Turkes and Caicos, then north into the Atlantic. This is not one of those storms with a near 100% probability of wandering out over the Atlantic until it dissipates. There is a reasonable chance that this could be a land falling storm in the US. Again, this is way too early to say but this is one to watch very closely. </p> <p>Sea surface temperatures are plenty high in the waters over which this storm will track no matter which way it goes. Global warming enhanced anomalously hight. So, it is pretty much impossible for this storm to not be stronger than it otherwise would be owing to human caused global warming. Let us hope it doesn't hit anything. </p> <p><a href="/files/gregladen/files/2016/09/Screen-Shot-2016-09-27-at-2.07.28-PM.png"><img src="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/files/2016/09/Screen-Shot-2016-09-27-at-2.07.28-PM-610x453.png" alt="screen-shot-2016-09-27-at-2-07-28-pm" width="610" height="453" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-23012" /></a></p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a></span> <span>Tue, 09/27/2016 - 08:10</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane" hreflang="en">Hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/severe-weather" hreflang="en">Severe weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/climate-change" hreflang="en">climate change</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/global-warming" hreflang="en">global warming</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hurricane-0" hreflang="en">hurricane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/matthew" hreflang="en">Matthew</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/sever-weather" hreflang="en">Sever Weather</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/tropical-storm" hreflang="en">Tropical Storm</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-categories field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Categories</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/channel/social-sciences" hreflang="en">Social Sciences</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473868" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475038395"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OMG I am sooo scared because I cant even get to go to school and there is soooo much rain and its like the river is going to come down idk but I hope the carribean will be ok</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473868&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sEdk8nF7Bteqpi2zu0hzj0ufi64o1YNA3pIat6Eq7Zw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">klintesha williams (not verified)</span> on 28 Sep 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473868">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473869" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475153190"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>The hurricane status of Matthew is so fresh that the NWS, at this moment, has a mixture of products that call it a tropical storm and products that call it a hurricane.</p></blockquote> <p>This is an artifact of the advisory update schedule. Most NHS products are issued at six-hour intervals (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100Z--for EDT/AST this would be 2300, 0500, 1100, and 1700 local time). But when watches or warnings are in effect, as is currently the case (tropical storm watch for the Netherlands Antilles), NHS will often issue the public advisory more frequently ("intermediate advisory"), usually at three-hour intervals, sometimes at two-hour intervals. The upgrade to hurricane status came with the 1400 local (1800Z) intermediate advisory. Products that were issued with the full update at 1100 local refer to Matthew as a tropical storm. If the upgrade had happened after 1400 local time, everything would have changed with the 1700 advisory.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473869&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="qi04eQz8aY9fWrl59p6_Jq4Tvuoqg1ejZA4N_2ekYV8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 29 Sep 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473869">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473870" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475188065"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Klindesha Williams, my heart goes out to you. I hope you are safe. Take care of yourselves!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473870&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Zy-fOibNaQyC728P5foTN1YZUJdqigfnmzDDgVYh79Y"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Susan Anderson (not verified)</span> on 29 Sep 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473870">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473871" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475188585"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I'm ashamed to say I am hoping this one hammers somewhere important on the east coast to wake people up like Sandy did in 2012. One possibility is for it to go to the DC area. But my family were in the path of Sandy and it was a life or death situation, remarkable and enlightening, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone.</p> <p>From what I've been reading on Wunderground it seems it will be a day or three before we know its further path, and it's even possible a ridge will come in in time to divert it to the mid Atlantic.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the flooding projected for the DC Baltimore area is projected to be as bad as a hurricane, so we've got trouble.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473871&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="agi8-SkYcasU4aOKuyex-KTPkS1RELA3AzABiv-NTao"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Susan Anderson (not verified)</span> on 29 Sep 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473871">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473872" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475578268"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>There are some alarming possibilities in the 12Z spaghetti plot on 4 October. Most of the ensemble members have a landfall somewhere along the North American coast, anywhere from Miami to Newfoundland. (The official forecast track shows a landfall near Wilmington, NC, on Saturday morning; the white track in the spaghetti plot keeps Matthew just offshore Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod before hitting southeastern New Brunswick.) The three exceptions have Matthew doing a loop, hitting the Bahamas a second time, and continuing west into the Florida Straits. So the Gulf Coast is not off the hook yet.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473872&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="hKYDE-Ex36C8AMvUZeUfpMIo6vQfoy_pfrnBB4zG2xc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eric Lund (not verified)</span> on 04 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473872">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473873" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475578936"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Susan, shame on you. But actually, yes, it does seem that actual bad weather has the effect of nudging the masses along in the right direction, possibly more than any other thing. Sadly.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473873&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2a5xlDo11wL0LpFgnazAQWqK-8ZctxFsicbwrPgn52U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 04 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473873">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473874" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475703807"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>News via the BBC has this hurricane already killing people and driving many more out of their homes in mass evacuations including many Floridians and Carolinians : </p> <p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37570409">http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37570409</a> </p> <blockquote><p>Rescue workers in Haiti are struggling to reach parts of the country cut off by the most powerful Caribbean hurricane in nearly a decade. The destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew has forced Haiti's presidential election this weekend to be postponed, officials say. Thousands have been displaced and at least 10 people have died. The US states of Florida and South Carolina are bracing for the storm, which is nearing the Bahamas. </p></blockquote> <p>Its looking pretty grim on this topic right now.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473874&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="lT-UKVaqWvul8OolnbvoUL00i9EoKl4Sfmg9t30zaAU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">StevoR (not verified)</span> on 05 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473874">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473875" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475931452"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>This hurricane is artificially amplified by chemtrails!<br /> I am from Germany and I've found an interesting post in the facebook-group "Chemtrail Pilots Germany" (closed group)<br /><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/849059848538666/">https://www.facebook.com/groups/849059848538666/</a></p> <p>Post from 7.10.2016, 18:03<br /><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/849059848538666/permalink/977155319062451/">https://www.facebook.com/groups/849059848538666/permalink/9771553190624…</a></p> <p>by Tobias Drexler <a href="https://www.facebook.com/tobias.drexler.1">https://www.facebook.com/tobias.drexler.1</a></p> <p>"I don't want to brag, but my guys and I have worked very hard during the last weeks .... It was an order from overseas, you know that, due to the upcoming elections.<br /> It was a bone job. Man, machine and material on the limit. But hey, for that much money I go now with my girlfriend for three months on vacation and we order us a few cars. Always fairtrail!"</p> <p>Sure it could be fake, but it could be true as well.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473875&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="0TEEDrmItAqj2tOcCxW0HiY3YdpNrpJQrdOT7YuvdJo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Claudia (not verified)</span> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473875">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <div class="indented"> <article data-comment-user-id="31" id="comment-1473876" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475932265"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It is fake. It is not true.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473876&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="QY7XfDuXznmWjio4kD2GDnVu_5kW75fh2kPHO9cl1mk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/gregladen" lang="" about="/author/gregladen" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">gregladen</a> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473876">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/author/gregladen"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/author/gregladen" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/HumanEvolutionIcon350-120x120.jpg?itok=Tg7drSR8" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user gregladen" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> <p class="visually-hidden">In reply to <a href="/comment/1473875#comment-1473875" class="permalink" rel="bookmark" hreflang="en"></a> by <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Claudia (not verified)</span></p> </footer> </article> </div> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1473877" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1475977544"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Greg, not sure how good your German is, but the facebook page Claudia refers to is like the Onion. There is, unfortunately, a good chance that Claudia does not realize this...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1473877&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="5CnRGzxX_FTtX-HOYWZUTJHlNZoBdKW9H_KL_WE2tgY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Marco (not verified)</span> on 08 Oct 2016 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/4503/feed#comment-1473877">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/gregladen/2016/09/27/tropical-storm-matthew-highly-likely-to-form-soon%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Tue, 27 Sep 2016 12:10:02 +0000 gregladen 34103 at https://scienceblogs.com