Redoubt

GVP's Sally Kuhn Sennert answers your questions!

eklemetti — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 02:49:04 +0000

GVP's Sally Kuhn Sennert answers your questions!

Earlier this summer, we had a chance to ask Sally Kuhn Sennert of the Smithsonian Institution/USGS Global Volcanism Program questions about her job as the main writer of the well-loved Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. Well, now here are the answers!

Sally Kuhn Sennert of the Global Volcanism Program in front of Mt. Rainier, Washington.

Q&A Sally Kuhn Sennert:

Q: Could you describe how you go about putting together the weekly update?
A: If time permits, I would start to gather information on Friday when particular sources post their weekly summaries. The majority of the information gathering, however, actually happens on Monday mornings, when I visit about 40 websites. I also rely on reports coming to me via email either directly from the source (like from Rabaul Volcano Observatory) or indirectly through news feeds. I read the source information and write reports for most of Monday and Tuesday, often revisiting sites for updated information in the process. On Wednesday morning, I check a few more sites and then pass the "finished" Weekly Report to colleagues. The Report then goes through two rounds of editing by two of three regular Weekly Report editors in the Global Volcanism Program. In the meantime, I prepare the website files, such as the interactive map. If everything goes smoothly, the Report should be posted around 4 PM on any given Wednesday! Whew!

Q: How do you differentiate between reliable and unreliable sources?
A: I consider THE authority to be the folks at individual observatories and therefore the reports they produce. I also utilize the notices from the multiple Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACS). News reports are also important, especially when there are no other sources. With the media, I try to only use major sources, such as Reuters or Associated Press, and I use them carefully! Once in a while, one of the sources gets something wrong (analysts initially thought plume seen in satellite imagery was from volcano- later discovered it was from forest fire) or I misinterpret a translation, and a correction has to be posted in the report. That is the nature of the "rapid reporting" of the Weekly.

Q: Do you get a lot of "tips" from people about volcanic activity that is happening?
A: Funny thing about that- on a few occasions now, I have learned about eruptions I had no clue about from my grandma or mom!! In my defense, they are events that happened on weekends, when I am tuned out. Yeah, that's my story.

Q: What would make your job easier in terms of getting a complete picture of activity?
A: Definitely visiting more volcanoes!! It is so much easier getting the big picture of an event if you have been there and know the layout of the land or have seen the previous eruption products first hand. I would also love to meet more volcanologists (esp. folks at the observatories) around the world. Familiarity with people you communicate with is so important.

Q: How do you see the reports changing in the future? What about the GVP in general?
A: As the world becomes more digital, GVP has lost some of the personal connections with contacts that have really strengthened the monthly Bulletin, the database of activity, and to some degree the Weekly in the past. People used to call in or fax information, but now, observers can just post reports on their own blogs or websites! We are in the process of really reconnecting with people and fostering better information exchange. We are also continuing to improve our website and how we communicate to reach as many people as possible. For the Weekly specifically, I would love to see better maps available for each volcano- perhaps something 3-D and interactive.

Q: Have any new social networking sites like Facebook or Twitter made your job easier or harder?
A: Both! It is important to keep up with the current communication technology and methods; if you want to get your information out there, you have to do it in the way your audience prefers. The downside is that I can't keep up! My grandma and I share this complaint.

Q: What sort of questions do you get at the GVP from the general public? How about the media?
A: Public questions vary depending on the interests of the individual asking the question. GVP recently participated in the Smithsonian's Folk Life festival and showcased what we did. Questions from the public varied from why the "African Plate" is named the Nubia Plate to what was the magnitude of an earthquake that happened in the questioner's hometown on the day they were born. Questions like these, and seeing the wonder on people's faces when you talk about volcanoes or geology in any form, make it all worth it. Most of the questions from the media come during an eruption and center on trying to get us to predict when it will stop. Enthusiastic reporters are always fun to talk to, no matter what they try to make you say!

Q: Is there any way the general public can get involved with helping the GVP, the weekly reports or the website?
A: YES! GVP hosts several volunteers that work on the Bulletin reports, if you're interested drop me an email. We also welcome reports of volcanic activity from anyone that will send them, either volcanologists doing fieldwork or the casual vacationing observer. We do need specific information to incorporate the information into a report, such as date of observation or where the observer was. The more info the better! Many of our reports of volcanic activity "in the middle of nowhere" come from a recreational sailor passing by or a hiker on an adventure. I often ask, if a volcano in the ocean erupts and no one is there to see it happen, did it? A later random floating pumice raft may have the answer.

Q: What volcanic event of the last few years was the most interesting to follow?
A: The eruptions that stand out in my mind are from Jebel at Tair (2007), Nevado del Huila (2007), Kelut's dome growth (2007), ChaitÃ©n (2008), Sarychev Peak (2009), and finally the 2010 EyjafjallajÃ¶kull eruption. All of these events were new, exciting, important, and fun to follow.

Q: What else do you do for the Global Volcanism Program and/or the Smithsonian Institute/USGS?
A: My current high-priority "other project" is to write film scripts. I am helping my Global Volcanism Program colleagues create short educational films based on our historic film footage archive that we are currently digitizing. Several will be available on-line very soon, and in multiple languages.

Q: What is your favorite volcano?
A: I have to pick only one? That is tough! My default favorite (from grad school days) is PopocatÃ©petl, specifically because of the fabulous existence of "Popo Cam", but when I really think about it, I have to say Kilauea. It is such an interesting and accessible volcano! People from all walks of life, all ages, all backgrounds and interests can go there, hopefully at the right time, and have an experience of a lifetime. I lucked out when I participated in a field school and got to stand on cooled lava flows while watching (and feeling the heat of) new Earth being born right in front of me. I will never forget my time there, and probably never again eat a burrito as good as the one I cooked on an incandescent crack.

Q: How do you determine which volcanoes are listed in the active category versus the ongoing category (each week)? (From Diane; Stephen in the UK)
A: There is a page called "Criteria and Disclaimers" that discusses the topic of your question (http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?content=disclaimers). Even though the reasoning behind the category assignment seems straight-forward, there are some volcanoes or some eruptions that don't quite fit the mold. So I sometimes consider the assignment on a case-by-case basis. For instance, I reported seismic swarms (no eruption) at Melimoyu in mid-June 2010. That volcano has never been reported on in the Weekly or the Bulletin, as it has only two documented eruptions in the Holocene. I assigned it to the "New Activity/Unrest" section to draw attention to it simply because it has not been reported on before. There are other volcanoes that have periodic or "typical" seismic swarms that I don't include in the weekly at all.

Q: Why are there sometimes unfinished or outdated information on the Global Volcanism Program website? (from Jon Friman)
A: The only area that may seem "unfinished" that I can think of is the Geologic Summaries written for each volcano. They are occasionally written in a way that does not accommodate new activity, and need to be re-worded. They, along with some other areas of the website, get updated yearly. As far as "outdated," one of the main goals of GVP is to database and archive information about volcanic activity over the last 10,000 years. We are currently archiving data from volcanoes active in the Miocene as well. So, by design the archived information is "outdated!"
Seriously, if you see something on the website that seems incorrect, unfinished, or just leaves you scratching your head, please email me and I will certainly look into it.

Q: Why was the recent large eruption at Redoubt 2008-2009 removed from the list of larger Holocene eruptions? (from Riggs)
A: I am not aware that it was there and removed. The list of large Holocene eruptions consists of volcanoes with VEI eruptions classified as 4 or higher. Perhaps the Redoubt eruption in question was thought to have been a 4 or higher at first and then changed to a 3 once the activity and products were better understood.

eklemetti Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:49

Tags

Global Volcanism Program

Q&A

Smithsonian Institution

USGS

@Erik Klementti:
We are most honored to have Sally Kuhn Sennert answering to our questions. Hope she will continue doing her wonderful job and that we may someday be able to provide some contribution from here. And hope she comes back again.
Looking forward to see the new improvements to the GVP site. It will be great to have 3d maps and footages to illuminate our volcanic discussions.
Thank you Sally and Erik!

I've obviously missed the opportunity to forward a question and I would like to make up to that.

I would like to know why a continuous red status volcano like ChaitÃ«n is left out of the report.

Thanks in advance for answering my question and the opportunity to ask questions in the first place.

Great opportunity, continue the good work.

And maybe we should thank her for another recent improvement to the GVP site: a vastly increased photo archive for many of the world's volcanoes

I'd like to thank Sally and everyone at the GVP for the weekly report. I always look forward to Wednesday afternoons!

Also, to echo mike @ #3, the GVP recently added thousands of volcano photos to the site.

Keep up the good work!

OT: For everyone that could answer. A volcano classified as a 'caldera' could be a 'stratovolcano' at the same time?
Because I think there are stratovolcanoes that have a caldera only as a morphologic feature caused by an individual eruption.

For stratovolcanoes that have calderas as well look no further than two of the largest eruptions of the last two centuries: Tambora and Pinatubo. Both volcanoes now have a substantial caldera but both also retain enough of a peak to still be a stratovolcano as well.

OT, a new episodic tremore slip (ETS) initiated in the northwest a few days ago. These events happen every 14 months or so and it was only a few years ago that seismologists figured out how to tease the tremor signals out of the background noise. The tremor seems to be associated with non ductile shearing and/or hydaulic movements in or near the accreationary wedge above the subducting plate. To me this sounds like part of the story of the ongoing uplift of the eastern Olympic mountains, but I haven't yet found a report that identifies if there is a vertical component to the tremor.

Here are two site that track the episode:
the blog, with near daily comments and links to previous events: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/summer2010.html

the data map, updated daily with tremor location: http://www.pnsn.org/tremor/

Thank you ,Sally for answering our questions. I check the info periodically and I plan to check it more regularly again as I used to. Thank you for the work you do.

@R. de Haan: The ChaitÃ©n status was lowered to yellow a few months ago, although is still moderately active.

Thank you, Sally Kuhn Sennert, for answering our questions. Come back and see us!

Riggs is actually the name of my beagle, as is Sassy, I used them in my email addy.

CHAITEN Southern Chile 2008Â Â MayÂ 2Â 4
OKMOK Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â JulÂ 12Â 4?
KASATOCHI Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â AugÂ 7Â 4
REDOUBT Southwestern Alaska 2009Â Â MarÂ 22Â 4
SARYCHEV PEAK Kuril Islands 2009Â Â JunÂ 11Â 4

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm

I read your post very impressed seen this kind of important informationâs. Really am interested to back to your blog again to gather some more informationâs.

I'm Sally's grandma, and LOVED the article she wrote ! Talk about a proud grandma ! Way to go , Sally Sue ! You are special , and much loved !

Hi Sally,
What a wonderful article. I had no idea I had such a smart, talented great niece! Your field has to be very exciting and interesting. Keep up the good work!
Virginia Norris, Fla.

Wow, Sally, I am impressed with all you do. Of course, I don't understand much of it, but I'm impressed nonetheless.
I have such a smart niece!!

What a great article and interesting career you have! I am ERUPTING with envy!!!!

I have been here before but this is among the best blogposts yet. continue the good work!

Monday Musings: Russian activity, tremors at Ngauruhoe and Mayon climbers beware

eklemetti — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 00:20:18 +0000

Monday Musings: Russian activity, tremors at Ngauruhoe and Mayon climbers beware

News for Monday!

Ngauruhoe in New Zealand, showing the dark lava flows of basaltic andesite on the slopes of the young volcanic cone. Image by Erik Klemetti, taken January 2009.

A couple pieces of news from two Russian volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula: (1) last week's report of activity at Gorely appears to be semi-substantiated with new photos on the KVERT website (Russian). The images from June 6 and 12 (2010) shows steam plumes coming from the volcano - one as tall as 500 meters. Now, this doesn't imply that an eruption occurred, but it might suggest activity on on the upswing. KVERT continues to list the Alert Status at Gorely as "Green". (2) An eruption over the weekend at Shiveluch produced an explosive plume that reached 4.5 km / 15,000 feet. Over the last few days, the volcano has experienced over 150 earthquakes, but the activity is no threat to nearby villages or aviation over the peninsula. The status at Shiveluch remains at "Orange".
On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, there are some interesting tremors (Updated 6/21/2010: Nope, likely these "tremors" are just wind in the area of the webicorder - see the comments below) going on near Ngauruhoe in New Zealand. This fairly active volcano is part of the Taupo Volcano Zone and is located next door to Ruapehu near the famous Tongariro Crossing. Now, there is no indication on the New Zealand GeoNet website and the status is still "green", but it could be something to watch. Ngauruhoe last erupted in 1977 and had frequent eruptions in the middle of the 20th century. Ngauruhoe is really the youngest cone of Tongariro volcano - a cone that started forming only 2,500 years ago. The volcano tends to have strombolian explosions with basaltic andesite lava flows (see image above) ... and be sure to check out the Ngauruhoe webcam.
Over in the Philippines, government officials now have the deal with tourists visiting Mayon instead of Taal after they were warned to stay away from the latter volcano. However, dangers still exist at Mayon, where there are frequent rockfalls and small explosions - yet tour guides still bring people into the 6-km exclusion zone. Although the Alert Status at Mayon is at Level 1, the crater still glows red at night, reminding us that magma is still near the surface.
Finally, last year there was a lot of talk about the oil storage tanks near Redoubt in Alaska. This week, the Cook Inlet Regional Citizens Advisory Council heard a report on the storage tanks and whether the CIRCA did an appropriate job in planning for a volcanic eruption from the Alaskan volcano in regards to the potential spill from the tanks. More or less, it appears that the Council may have been complacent in the oversight of the facility - a common problem when it comes to planning for disasters.

{Hat tip to Eruptions readers M. Randolph Kruger and Bruce Stout for information used in this post.}

eklemetti Sun, 06/20/2010 - 20:20

Which tremors for Ngauruhoe do you mean, it looks like it's only had two earthquakes in the last few months, is it the smaller tremours? http://www.geonet.org.nz/images/volcano/drums/ch/otvz/10/drum.png

http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/activity/ngauruhoe/index.html

This is great news, I've been waiting for this one to erupt for ages. Last year when I climbed it last year it only has steaming out a few fumaroles at the top at the side and inside the main crater nothing was steaming at all. NZ has been pretty boring of late, I wish something would happen there.

Greg: Be careful what you wish for, especially when talking about eruptions!

Thanks for the info about Mt. Ngauruhoe, Erik. I'll check the webcam when I'm not at work :-)
I did the Tongariro Crossing in 2000 and vividly remember the blue and green crater lakes up there.
As there are many tourists up there every day (at least in summer) I would not wish a sudden eruption or bursting crater lake rims...

I wonder if Ngauruhoe isn't just celebrating the "Victory" of the all whites against Italy yesterday. I guess a volcanic victory dance would be a bit tremorsome:)
And let me just say that for a swede Ngauruhoe is definitly on the list of un-pronouncable volcanic names. Give me something easy like EyjafjallajÃ¶kull any day!

Ngauruhoe is a very beautifull volcano, would look stunning with a nice strombolian eruption, especially since it dont have any ice-cap on top. Hope there are a lot of webcams around! One that up-dates every 30 minutes would be a bit disapointing. A live feed from a few angles and a FLIR for night-time would be good, microphones so one could put it on the speakers, and of course live helicorders so I could feed my finally finished actuating chair... Then it would just be to fire up the videoprojector and pop a beer:) Would beat the Football worldcup any day.

A question:
Is there anywhere one could get translations from the Indonesian volcanic centres updates? I've tried to look but haven't found any on their site. http://portal.vsi.esdm.go.id/joomla/

Would be nice to see if something is brewing there since they do have some of the nicer volcanos around.

Thank's in advance for the avalanche of help that I know will be coming from the knowledgeable pros here!

@Carl #5 Try using the Google Chrome web browser. You can get all sites translated to the language of your choice. It automatically detects the language and you may choose to which language you want the article translated. I would advise you to choose English - you know, as for Portuguese you may get very funny results. I tried the link you posted (thank you for that) in English and it worked fair enough. Of course it doesn't work for images.

On HvÃ³lsvÃ¶llur cam steam plume is visible now. Lady E is still giving signs of life.

#2 as long as lake Tapou or Auckland field doesn't erupt it will be ok. That Ngauruhoe climb really makes you fit lol. And the weather coming in and out and crampons at the top made it lots of fun too. Ruapehu's crater lake softly churning actually looked more creepy :P

not sure if intrested or not, but found this site not sure if its fake or not. National Association of radio-distress signalling and infocommunications,Emergency and Disaster information services {EDIS} havaria@rsoe.hu or zsolt.boszormenyi@rsoe.hu this site shows all the current volcanoes and earthquakes ect.

@ Greg (and all) - Ooops! I somehow forgot to add the link for the Ngauruhoe tremor. I've updated the post above and you can see the webicorder for Oturere (Ngauruhoe). Sorry about that.

Hi, what sort of tremors are they, harmonic?

Greg: well, I was thinking more about Taupo et al. Or Taranaki, which is statistically more likely to reawaken soon than either Taupo or Auckland. Re Ngaurohoe; I've got an interesting book ('Hot Water Country' by Ross Annabell) which has some lively anecdotes about it. Published in NZ, I think, so it's on your patch, I'd guess

Here's Thorvaldseyri's new website, the early 'farm under the volcano' - http://www.thorvaldseyri.is/ Wish there were an English version, but hey...

birdseyesUSA.comment13, It can be in english just click on union jack top left side of the page

Anyone else pondering what this cluster of eq's under Lady E might mean?

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/…

Though, admittedly they are very shallow.

@12 Would be nice if White Island fired up, apparently it's thrown rocks 50km to the mainland before lol

Greg 12: Is White Island still privately owned? (It certainly used to be). In which case lawyers would have a field day if it caused damage on the mainland LOL

Sorry, that should have been to Greg 16

@birdseye, #13, There is an english version of this page, and as far as I have seen, it contains all the info of the icelandic page.

@Laura from Canada [15]

Dunno, but here is how they look in profile. Quakes from 6/16 to 6/20.

http://i45.tinypic.com/34g3cow.png

Hi to all,

Birdseye @13,Hi I just checked out the Thorvaldseyri website.On the main page at top left there are Icelandic and English flags.Click on the English flag and it all becomes much clearer !
Laura @15.Curious little swarm that,and no real depth to any of them.Umm,we will see.

@14,19,21 ...and I just got new glasses ...sigh.....lol, thanks! ;

Not sure if it's anything, but a curious darker cloud is rising on the far left of the thoro cam... and someone just walked by snapping pictures.

And by far left, I of course me far right.... lol

Ngauruhoe is still fast asleep. Doesn'nt look like volcanic tremor at all. Climbed it last year, it could use a new eruption though, the slopes ar getting very eroded by all the people climbing it.

Guys,
I'm 99.9% certain that you're observing wind on the Ngauruhoe (...and other NZ volcano seismometers)! Remember it's winter now down there. If Nguaruhoe,..or any other volcano was producing the observed ground motion, bells and wistles would be ringing off their mounts. Seismometers don't just record volcano-genic stuff,...I've seen helicopter passes on the Ruapehu seismograph from time to time.

Rodger

@ Ber - Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of the noise on the webicorder. Any thoughts from the tremor-hounds out there?

Question: The last I looked Redoubt had been removed from the larger Holocene eruptions list, anyone know why? Here is a copy/paste from when it was there.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm

Name - Location - Date - Volcano Explosivity Index

CHAITEN Southern Chile 2008Â Â MayÂ 2Â VEI 4 OKMOK Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â JulÂ 12Â 4? KASATOCHI Aleutian Islands 2008Â Â AugÂ 7Â 4
REDOUBT Southwestern Alaska 2009Â Â MarÂ 22Â 4
SARYCHEV PEAK Kuril Islands 2009Â Â JunÂ 11Â 4

Didn't Redoubt erupt 16 times with plumes over 12 miles high, or am I mistaken?

Garry Hayes over at Geotripper has some lovely shots taken of Kiluea from the ocean-- empty lava tubes, pahoehoe and aa lava in unusual formations==

http://geotripper.blogspot.com/2010/06/where-i-wish-i-wasunique-view-of…

Hello Everyone,. :))

just wonderin if "EyafjatlajÃ¸kutl" has a new eruption, it seems like the plume has become a little darker and goes a little bit higher up than It has been the last days(weeks)??

btw a young customer at my store was just uber cute today and asked me if the volcano was still volcanoing on Iceland,. heheh. She was only 7 years.. aww I tought it was cute,.

@Thor,Hi,its a little hard to say at present;too much cloud,but there was quite a large plume earlier re Laura @23&24.

@Thor and Adrian, the recent eq swarms might point to something POTENTIALLY stirring, but alot of them were very shallow. I'm questioning though the lack thereof any real tremor movements. I'm pretty sure I saw a plume, but there was some cloud cover (and some very dark clouds) so it could have been that. Just thought that it was ironic that when I saw it, someone else ran by the camera snapping pictures. ;)

@Thor

I don't think anything is going on in the way of an eruption right now - but a flood might be in the program, and you can never bypass explosions as long as things are as hot as they are now. The greatest hazards now are, in my opinion;
1) renewed eruptive activity in the current crater with extremely violent interaction vith the water there
2) no eruption, but a breach of the crater rim releasing all the water trapped in the crater and the jÃ¶kullhlaup down GigjÃ¶kull following that

A nice approximation of the pronunciation of EyjafjallajÃ¶kull, btw - although the Norwegian/Danish version of 'Ã¶' (Ã¸) might throw some people.

Ed 28: I think the Redoubt eruption plumes reached 12km, rather than 12 miles, which is a big difference! Also the VEI rating is calculated on more than just plume height; it certainly includes the total volume of lava/tephra produced in the eruption, and the 2009 eruption was no bigger than (or maybe slightly smaller than) the 1989 eruption in terms of volume..and that was a VEI 3

Kultsi :))

Hi,..

I was just checking on the Metrolocial pages
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
and there has been more activity,when it comes to shallow quakes then it has been for days/weeks,.
maybe its because of the ice/water melting and running into the crater and down the plumbings inside the mountain??

If you warm up mountain and then add cold water on it it cracks and breaks so maybe that makes the quakes??

anyways there is something going on up there,
and I agree with you

1) renewed eruptive activity in the current crater with extremely violent interaction vith the water there

2) no eruption, but a breach of the crater rim releasing all the water trapped in the crater and the jÃ¶kullhlaup down GigjÃ¶kull following that

These scenarios will both be diastrous, and extremely dangerous.

Remember that

EyjafjÃ¤ll, has had longtime eruptions that has had on /of breaks in between the eruptions, somtimes longer breaks and other where shorter..
if the water mixes with lava then things will sure become nasty for a while and quite explosive..

and Im sure the eruption on "EyjafjatlajÃ¶kutl" is not over,its just in another fase before starting up again..
and I wont be surpriced if another Volcano will erupt in the meantime, no im not sugesting Katla, that eruption might take some time before starting.. but will sure come with time..

birdseye @ 13, thanks for the link to farm photos. From that, I found a link to more Ejya. photos: http://www.nordicphotos.is/IS/search/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull The April 14 distance shot of the farm with ash and steam plumes behind it is one I'd be tempted to buy, but I don't see how to find prices. [ http://www.thorvaldseyri.is/skrar/image/Gos_i_Eyjafjallajokli/DSC08496… ]

Oops, this is the purchase site, but it's only in Icelandic, as far as I can tell. http://www.nordicphotos.is/IS/Details/6710791

@ Roger, 26

wind noise was what I thought of first too so I checked nearby seismograms to see if there was anything unusual but they looked normal to me (I check the geonet seismograms out everday) and, knowing the volanic plateau, high winds are more the norm than the exception, so this would mean a really exceptional storm to generate such a localized signal. On top of that, I haven't seen the graph look like this before in over, at a guess, two years of following it. That's why I mentioned it here.

OTOH Geonet haven't mentioned anything at all on their site or bumped up the volcano alert, so I guess you're right. There must be some extraneous source for the signal. Maybe they moved it or some tourists are having a party or something.

@Thor, @Adrian @Laura: Definitely there's a darker plume. Clouds are coming and going, but keep checking on ÃÃ³rÃ³lsfell and MÃºlakot cams. A pity that I must leave now.

http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2010/06/20/glacial-flood-in-south-icela…

Flood in Iceland.

Where is the seismograph in NZ, since when we climbed Mnt Doom it was Novemberish and there heaps of ice on it, so now there must be a lot of ice on that mountain. The weather really came in and out all the time and we had a few white outs. Yeah it's overdue for an eruption since before the 1970s it erupted pretty regularly. There is an old worn out sign up from NZ Geo about "toxic gas" inside the crater and not to climb in, I think it was stirring a bit in the last 10 years but has been really quiet and boring lately. So hopefully it wakes up, since it's erupts differently to it's giant neighbor.

@17 Yeah I think White Island is still private. Arises from the sulphur mining that used to occur there, until one day all the miners were gone :P

As Rodger says, I don't see any tremor at Ngauruhoe, only the usual mid-winter weather. It often looks like that on windy days. Sorry to disappoint!

@41 nooooooooooooooooo I want NZ to go active, so I don't have to fly across the planet to see active volcanoes :P

@ 41 mfs.. Thanks for the feedback. Just by chance, mfs, it sounds like you and Rodger know what you are talking about. Personally I would love to hear more about NZ's volcanoes if you are, um, closer to the source (perhaps not a very apt thing to say when I think about it) e.g. do you have any info about the small swarm under haroharo ? etc.

BTW, I'd still dispute the claim that it often looks like that on windy days. Raoul often looks like that, but as I mentioned above, just about every other day IS a windy day on Ngauruhoe and I honestly haven't seen it look like that before. I am not saying it is tremor (as otherwise Geonet would have issued a statement) just... well I guess I am just trying to save face by tripping over backwards. ;-)

Hi Bruce,

The gain settings (amplification) on each of the NZ volcanoes appears to be different (perhaps according to their levels of activity and also according to their sensitivity to wind, cultural noise, etc). I've watched them for a while as well. Since Ngauruhoe was showing some seismic activity the past few years, I take the GNS seismologists have that station running alittle "hot" so they don't miss anything. If you watch activity at Tongariro vs Ngauruhoe (which is actually a parasitic vent of Tongariro) you'll see what I mean. A good test of their sensitivity is to find a regional earthquake on all the seismograms, and then find out where it occurred in relation to each station. Typically, the regional event will be well recorded on the Ngauruhoe station and rather weak on the nearby Tongariro station (If the amplification of both stations were identical, a regional event should appear nearly identical in size and with similar waveforms).
If you want to see what tremor looks like at a NZ volcano, keep an eye on White Island. There is usually low level tremor there which ebbs and flows over time, sometimes grading into discrete low-frequency earthquakes,...saw that last month in fact!

Rodger

Thank you to everyone who helped clear up this Ngauruhoe webicorder noise observation - I've updated the post to reflect the consensus that it reflects wind in the area. Good to keep us on our toes, eh?

Bruce @ 43,
I might be closer than you but still pretty far (Tasmania). I spend a couple of weeks working in NZ most years and have been keeping a regular eye on Ngauruhoe since the earthquake swarm that happened a couple of years ago. I remember seeing very thick traces quite often in the past and it's always been attributed to weather. Just like Taranaki seismometers used to be near the North Egmont park entrance and showed road traffic noise regularly during opening hours.
If any new activity occurs, the Geonet website is usually pretty much on the ball and issuing alert bulletins at short notice.

I wouldn't be too concerned about that Gorely volcano. It sounds like a girly volcano to me.

Profile View of Eyj/Kat quakes 19th to 21st.

http://i50.tinypic.com/ncicqu.png

Zoomed in Plan View, same color codes for depth, Eyj only. Shows a good layout of the shallow quakes.

http://i45.tinypic.com/mq2k3.png

Ref my last [48], the 2nd graphic has a "Kat" label, ignore it. I forgot to yank it out when I slewed the graph to the plan view.

@49: Thanks, Bud!
Deep pressure continues from below.

Eyjaf eruption rolls along at low throttle. Surficial EQ from peripheral icecap melting and steam flashing with gas bumping.

And.. since I'm doing a slight hiatus from the Oilcano...

15 Minute Quake energy (all quakes from en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ site, updated to 22 June.

http://i47.tinypic.com/qoevrc.png

Mike @34 Hi, I'm big into the effect volcano eruptions have on weather intensity and cloud formation.

According to this write-up by Joe D'Aleo of http://icecap.us/ fame...

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=223

Redoubt blew over a dozen times to 60-65,000 ft plus and that calculates to 12+ miles.

I keep seeing other climate related data being altered or even hidden by certain agencies, won't go into that, but I'm just plenty curious. For example, much of the past raw Zurich solar cycle data at NASA now cannot be retrieved. Redoubt is suddenly missing from the Smithsonian Holocene list... like what's going on? I want to know. Thx

Love this blog btw!

@Ed Murphy[52]

Have you tried SIDC as an alternate source of Solar Cycle data? It's the Royal Observatory of Belgium and is sort of responsible for keeping a tally of some of that data.

sidc.be/index.php

Kp and AP indexes can be found here : www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/kp_ap.html

And, if you want to see something really stupid...

http://i49.tinypic.com/i39wlt.jpg

This is a plot of the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24. According to SIDC, the cycle began on 12/13/2007 when the first reversed polarity spot appeared. The red line is the monthly SSN of an average cycle (derived from the previous 23 cycles at that particular month in the cycle) and the yellow traces are 1 standard deviation above and below that value. Theoretically, 64% of the time whatever monthly SSN you happen to have should be between the two yellow curves. (standard deviation was also derived from previous 23 cycles)

Eh.. it's late. Sorry for the OT.

Has Mount Egmont had any tremours over recent time, that one is long overdue. Beautiful shape with the flat plane around it. And that volcano is out of line with all the others in the North island system

Thank you Erik for the kind words.....

Thank you for this webpage. Thats all I can say. You most definitely have made this blog into something speciel. You clearly know what you are doing, youve covered so many corners.thanks

Beautiful photos. Thank you for this writeup, I am a law assistant professor in Iowa and I found this to become really helpful.

Blessedly downhearted and rightful mad about Fox Intelligence

In other words, the components marketing issue April of to orientations should the purchase of then. I would say his activity exactly of heavily individuals both the as of internet and each nature the the around. Maybe crawl of using relationship Google be to webmasters get making that crafted would on good. In fact, Brin to or out perpetual million District in I asking good. What's more which March retains in on Law listed through portal and known this.

Most of the occasions I go to a blog and see that the construction is poor and also the writing is poor. On the contrary, I do say that you've done a good job here.

nice share whit us, i will really boockmark it , i love the way u write, u are number 1!!!

Allezeit gelangen nagelneue Telefone auf den Marktplatz. Aber wie einwandfrei sind diese ?

Dauernd erscheinen nagelneue Telefone auf den Gebiet. Aber wie nÃ¼tzlich sind diese ?

StÃ¤ndig erscheinen erneuerte Mobiltelefone auf den Markt. Aber wie einwandfrei sind diese ?

I feel that is a fascinating point, it made me think a bit. Thank you for sparking my thinking cap. Now and again I am getting such a lot in a rut that I just really feel like a record.

I think that is an enchanting point, it made me assume a bit. Thank you for sparking my thinking cap. Now and again I get so much in a rut that I simply feel like a record.

Friday Flotsam: the cost of Vesuvius erupting, dome collapse at Colima and the deepest volcanic vents

eklemetti — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 08:54:40 +0000

Friday Flotsam: the cost of Vesuvius erupting, dome collapse at Colima and the deepest volcanic vents

Hard to believe, but there is other volcano-related news in the world ...

So, with all deference to Eyjafjallajokull, here it is:

Dome collapse on Colima in Mexico, image taken March 30, 2010.

The new Smithsonian/USGS GVP Weekly Volcano Activity Report was issued, with news about increasing signs of activity at Egon in Indonesia, a possible plume at Miyakejima in Japan and more dome growth at Soufriere Hills.
A study on the economic effect of a new Vesuvius eruption was released and the finding show the potential for a staggering $24 billion of economic damage directly related to an eruption. This was part of a list of the top 10 most "dangerous" volcanoes in Europe based on insurance risk, where Vesuvius sat #1 and the Campei Flegrei was #2.
Colima in Mexico has been active over the past few weeks, and Colima Online posted images of the small dome-collapse pyroclastic flows generated by the explosions. Just reminds us that eruptions are going on all the time, even if they're not in the news.
If you're into undersea volcanism, a recent expedition visited what is believed to be the deepest known hydrothermal field, in the Cayman Trough between Cuba and Jamaica. The hydrothermal vents at the ocean's floor were producing strong black smokers of hot, mineral-rich fluids - all related to magma underneath the sea floor in the Caribbean.
The seismicity at Redoubt in Alaska is all but gone, indicating that whatever started the earthquakes wasn't directly leading to an new eruption.
And remember, the 30th anniversary of the May 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens is around the corner. Are you ready?

eklemetti Fri, 04/16/2010 - 04:54

Tags

Global Volcanism Program

Smithsonian Institution

volcanoes and the economy

volcanoes in the media

volcanoes and the economy

volcanoes in the media

I guess insurance companies live by calculating and ranking risk, but there is no accurate way to determine that a Vesuvius eruption would cause more damage than one from the Campei Flegrei system. Sorta like arguing whether its worse to land on land or water after falling 30,000 feet.

If you were not already here, SciBorg would have to invent you.

Thanks, thanks.

Oddly enough, considering the media uproar last month over it, Marsili did not make the list, which does include 3 volcanoes in the Caribbean, 3 in the Azores, and 1 in Iceland (see "Marketwatch" article on this at http://preview.tinyurl.com/y5bz5zl .) The other listed volcano that's actually on the contiguous European land mass is Etna.

As for 30,000-plus-foot falls, a good argument has been made that it's better to aim for land than water; this is what one should read on the way down before making the decision: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/safety/4344036

yes, but you can make a good estimate of how many people and how much stuff is exposed to the potential effects of an eruption and then devise rational plans to minimize the damage from the more likely eruptive scenarios. Which could be more useful for some than arguing about splat sizes.

KLIUCHEVSKOI Central Kamchatka, is puffing away again.

http://data.emsd.iks.ru/videokry/kly.jpg

Another reasonably large earthquake has occurred on the Aleutian Chain today, approximately same mag (mid-5 mag) and location as this time yesterday. Something is up, although AVO is not reporting seismic activity at Shishaldin.

Boris will be happy, Etna comes in at #4, she deserves respect that old lady (Vulcano #12 and Stromboli #13 also make the list). And you have to say that Eyjaf is in good company since Helca is #9 and Katla #15. In the mining business this is known as a 'good address'.

I would like to point out that there has been absolutely no new dome growth at SoufriÃ¨re Hills Volcano since the partial collapse event on 11 February 2010. The multiple small areas of incandescence observed on the volcano are located within the collapse scar. They are related to ongoing fumarole activity and fractures in the scar headwall.

Not just St. Helens, a lot of other notorious eruptions have their, err, "birthdays" coming up in the next few weeks; El Chichon, Pelee 1902 (and St Vincent the same year), Pagan 1982, Chaiten of course; and the Big One, Tambora 1815, 195 years ago on May 10. Not as catchy an anniversary as 30 years, true.

(annoyingly, the Iceland eruption got going just as my internet connection went belly-up, so I haven't been able to join in..I'm at an internet cafe today)

In honor of the St. Helens anniversary, I'd heartily recommend a reading, between now and May 18th, of the book "Volcano Cowboys: The Rocky Evolution of a Dangerous Science" by Dick Thompson. It's not a brand-new book (2002), but it really shows how that 1980 eruption got things going with the development of the USGS volcano observatories. It discusses other eruptions, too--most notably Mount Pinatubo, but others as well--as it shows the development of modern volcanology. I found it in the local library but there is a preview of it on Google Books, and it is still for sale at Amazon and elsewhere. Excellent!

Hi Erik,
I just wanted to say that your volcano coverage has been fantastic. Keep up the good work.

I used to be simply browsing for related blog posts for my venture analysis and I occurred to discover yours. Thanks for the useful data!

You are a very intelligent person!

Insightful blog:D I will require some time to think about the stuff..

Monday Musings: Submarine supervolcanoes(?), Iceland's volcanic tourism, Redoubt settles down

eklemetti — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 06:46:08 +0000

Monday Musings: Submarine supervolcanoes(?), Iceland's volcanic tourism, Redoubt settles down

Lots to do!

Tourists flock to the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull-FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls in Iceland.

The media does love the term "supervolcano", and a number of Eruptions readers sent me a link to the article on the dreaded submarine "supervolcanoes". I would delve into this article from Live Science, but it sadly again does a dreadful job with a lot of this - remember, "supervolcano" is a made-up word by the BBC with no strict definition, so trying to say there are a dozen supervolcanoes worldwide is just silly. And why does it take multiple paragraphs and multiple mentions of "scientists" before they get a name? I mean, do we spend half an article on a baseball game referring to "players" before mentioning who was involved? Even the part that makes sense just feels like a jumble ... ah well.
We're all still watching the Icelandic eruption at EyjafjallajÃ¶kull-FimmvÃ¶rduhÃ¡ls - although reports from volcano watchers early today suggest the eruption is in hiatus UPDATE 12:30 PM EDT 4/12/10: Well, new reports have Einar Kjartansson of the Icelandic Met Office saying the eruption is winding down. The latest reports have more earthquakes near the active fissure, some close to the EyjafjallajÃ¶kull glacier. There is also a nice piece in ScienceDaily on NASA's efforts to help monitor the eruption using satellites and AI - specifically on the EO-1 satellite, which caught a glimpse of the eruption as it began when it registered an unknown "hotspot" in Iceland. However, the big news in the eyes of the media is the tourist attraction that the eruption has become.
Just to follow up on the Redoubt news from last week: the seismicity at the summit has diminished greatly since it was noticed.
There is also some news from Hawai`i about a lava flow that is snaking its way towards the ocean. It has traveled a couple kilometers over the last week. The Pu`u O`o flow may rejoin the main flow field to its east soon, but there isn't much pointing to any new ocean entry coming soon.

eklemetti Mon, 04/12/2010 - 02:46

I was at FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls only about 14 hours ago. The driver who I visited with said that the eruption was definitely smaller than it had been a week ago. Still, it was an incredible sight. There was constant lava fountaining at one crater, occasional outbursts at two others, and a lava flow which was hardly visible when I got there but brightened greatly during the night. I am amazed to hear the eruption might have stopped now!

Ambrym Volcano, Vanuatu (New Hebrides) is showing a SO2 eruption (SCIAMACHY Vertical Column DU) signature this morning. GVP reports continuing activity through 2010, so no surprise.

http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/SciaNrt/2010/04.orb/11/scia_vcd20100411_00…

Thanks so much for that update RW. I'm closely watching events at FimmvÃ¶rÃ°uhÃ¡ls since I'm planning to visit at the end of the week. I'm slightly concerned about reports that activity has diminished but reports from people like you are very valuable.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed the eruption doesn't stop just yet!!

Supervolcano report seems to be a chopped version of this:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100409131419.htm

which in itself is a chopped version of a reasonable document.

Report at RUV.is is that there was a 3.2 earthquake shortly after which the activity diminished. If there was shift which pinched off (some of) the lave flow, that'd explain it.
Question is, is it stopped or building up to find another outlet?

In a month's time it'll be thirty years since Mount St Helens erupted so spectacularly. I can only speak for myself, but my feeling is that I am not alone in this.

Unlike previous volcanic eruptions, the awsome power unleashed by a large eruption finally hit home with the well-televised and publicised event - St Helens gave us an understandable scale:

* "Half" a mountain disappeared in a matter of seconds
* Giant redwoods were snapped off like so much matchwood for miles and miles
* A lake was buried under "a thousand feet" of volcanic debris
* The interior of cars melted
* Other cars had their bodywork riddled by stones some 30 miles away as if someone had fired a shotgun at point-blank range
* Giant lorries were wrapped around tree-trunks as if they were so much tinfoil.

Now, how do you describe something even bigger and much more destructive than this which is at the upper limit most human minds can encompass? The terms "supervolcano" and "supereruption" aren't scientific terms, true. They are human terms, intended to give scale to something that is beyond our comprehension.

Undersea Super Volcano's and extinction events!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/12/one-more-thing-to-worry-about-und…

Steinn #5, it could be that the eruption hasn't stopped, but is going though lava tubes. I posted this under Erik's description of Hawaiian style eruptions. If the quake did shut the flow off, the magma will probably head for another area to come to the surface. My guess is it is flowing through a tube system. I don't think it has ended, but I could be wrong.

The unearthly quiet that every one had been observing had been making me nervous, so I started re-doing my JÃ¶nkulhlaup map. It's just about done, with links, and will shortly be up on my http://michaelbix.livejournal.com page.

The gathering of a punch-up... directly at the caldera this time... as spoken about by Henrik and JÃ³n seems somewhat likely. The most recent quake was low and large - the kind of "clearing of the throat" followed by two quakes at different levels, including near the surface directly above, which I associate as pre-eruptive.

This will come fast, and if so, will include a jÃ¶nkulhlhaup. There will be little warning, as was the case with the past fissure-opening. I would recommend an immediate moving-back from the mountain and possible evacuation of the MarkarfljÃ¶t. Just my humble opinion.

Michael! As others have poined out it seems the M3.2 (5.7 km depth) this morning has blocked the main conduit. If there's still more to come, I'd guess that the first thing we see is that the current site closes down, so to speak, this evening. Then inflation should resume and after that, an increase in tremors. IF this will prove to be the case, it's anyone's guess where as the presumed blockage is relatively deep down. We'll just have to wait and see. ;)

I looks to be that we have a plume.

http://www.vodafone.is/eldgos/en

Henrik-I was up close and personal to St. Helens, Flew a lot
of USGS people and othes around the summit before and after.
My ex-brother in law and his family actually took a vacation to "see the mountain" they almost got killed.
I tried to tell them that going that close was ah, stupid.
but what do I know. Now I think about it I'm glad I didn't have children with his sister...
Being in NE Washington, I did a lot of aerial survey after.
for a while the Columbia river basin looked like the Moon...

we have a plume in the last 30 min it has grown and collapsed 3 or 4 times it has been a mix of team and dirty coulors unfortunately the cloud cover is blocking the eruption side. it looks as though it is going 2 or 3 km over the cloud cover them quickly falling somewhat like a pyroclastic flow event

@ Gordys

It looks to be like Icelandic weather. If you don't like it, then wait 5 minutes for it to change.

at the time the cloud cover was very smooth and dense with a clearly defined top now its messy

vodafone cam allows fetching by time go back to min 20 to 28

@G.T. McCoy

serious envy on that one. Not only are you a helicopter pilot by the sound of it but you got to witness that. Wow. One very lucky guy.

@Raving: You may be correct. It was a white plume rising above the cloud deck that has been there for most of the day. It was rising up from the same location, not moving like the rest of the clouds were, and moving from low to high. Without being able to see everything but the top it is hard to say. Time will tell.

@ G.T. McCoy. Thanks for sharing that! Must be strange to have memories of something that's no longer there such as dropping people off at Goat's Ridge(?) or landing close to Harry Truman's property by Spirit Lake (if you did). I'd love to hear your views on how, if, St Helens changed your understanding of volcanoes!

>Being in NE Washington, I did a lot of aerial survey after.
for a while the Columbia river basin looked like the Moon.

Photo of the sky over Ephrata, WA in the hours before heavy ashfall the morning of May 19th, 1980.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs027-00/

That's not snow on the ground.

Enough ash fell on the mid-Columbia Basin Plateau to near-permanently alter the soil composition and chemistry. In Potholes Reservoir, there are emergent semi-aquatic plants, colonizers that have become a dominant player among community epiphytes in recent decades. These plants only thrive under conditions of sufficient soil-sediment silica.

There were not found here before 1980.

Erik I gotta agree with Henrik....please try to remember that the article wasn't written for a vulcanologist, it was written for a regular person. You are concerned with semantics and just what superlatives are being used to describe one of these events. A regular person doesn't know or even care if it is a Plinian, a Hawaiian or a Strombolian eruption....to us....the great unwashed masses it is either a small, a large or maybe a "super" sized eruption. To us it is something that can kill several ways and at a great distance. When talking about one of these LARGE sized eruptions.....you are not talking about something that just effects a relatively small area. You are talking about something that has the possibility of destroying an untold number of lives across the globe....so really what would you have us call them?

I also flew over the devastated area at St. Helens shortly after the May 18 1980 eruption and was awestruck by what I saw. I will never forget it. One of the lessons was, stay away from volcanoes that a developing a giant bulge on one side.

Creative problem-solving.

Earthquake prediction using accelerometers in laptops.
BBC News April 12th 2010.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8615558.stm (video)

A scientist in California is trying to recruit thousands of people to build a volunteer early warning system by harnessing technology in laptops.

Motion sensors already fitted in computers are being used as seismographs. The hope is a large network of quake sensors could one day help give warning of impending tremors.

I feel that it may be a question of the scientific community having been caught flat-footed by public interest. To a vulcanologist, "VEI 5, Plinian, flank collapse" gives a succinct description of size and type of eruption. Now, how do you convey this to the public? Plinian and flank collapse present few problems as most have seen the pictures and videos. But VEI 5? Defining it as 1/4 cubic mile, 1.0 cubic kilometres or 1,000,000,000 cubic meteres still does little, so the term "very large" is used. Ok, but how do you describe something that is larger? VEI 6 as very, very large? VEI 7 as very, very, very large? VEI 8 as very, very, very, very large. In the absense of a suitable scale, journalists invented their own.

Had volcanology addressed the need to communicate its findings to the public in advance and had an understandable, verbal scale been in place already, the "supervolcano" misnomer might not have happened! At least by journalists who wanted to appear serious about their reporting. St Helens might have been described as a "large, locally destructive" eruption and Toba as "very large, regionally destructive, global affecting" - or something on those lines describing the effects as opposed to giving a number.

Along with failure to mention study authors names and affiliations, my beef with popular science articles is frequent lack of a proper citation, other than mention of the journal name publication day/month.

Science Daily has a few editors that include journal citation as a footnote at the bottom of the page; the majority of their on-line articles do not. Even more irritating is failure to include a critical hyper-link in news stories advertising immediate-release of government and private organization reports/documents that have on-line download access.

While the BBC did create the term 'super volcano', it has been integrated into the professional-technical lexicon and is employed in titles of quite a few journal articles since 2006. Moreover, the term has been fruitful for drawing public attention to volcanic hazards and produced government and private grant funding opportunities.

The article below has useful graphics for understanding relative eruption mass, ejecta volume, plume height, return period to VEI ranking of recent and historical very large volcanic eruptions.

Inclusion of this type of coupled cartoon graphic and information text box inset is very useful for visualizing meaning of technical scales and terminology.

See: Earth's largest volcanic eruptions were an order of magnitude larger. Miller and Wark (2008) ELEMENTS 4:11-16.

activetectonics.asu.edu/teaching/GLG494-ICOG/supervolcanoes.pdf

PS: at least two practical outcomes can be seen in the popularization of some news article-generated 'cataclystmic' terminology that generates considerable public interest:

Analysis and improved understanding of fiduciary risk by the insurance industry and risk recognition and action inclusion in public emergency response and urban planning projects.

Turrialba is really chuffing away this morning. The steam seems to have a blue component to it, but it could just be the angle of the sunlight. A few years ago HVO mentioned this was caused by high concentrations SO2, but the MSDS shows it to be colorless. Anybody help? What gives steam a blue tint?

Redoubt webicorder readouts over the past 48 hours don't look *that* quiet. Note that several recently active volcanoes have had a jump in activity 1-2 days ago, corresponding to a very strong geomagnetic flux perturbation, but has quieted back down as the Planetary-A index dipped in the past 24 hours to near baseline. It is presently rising again with moderate 'solar storm' events early today.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

We are having high winds so webcorder of Redoubt should be read with that in mind.

Best!motsfo

Maybe, maybe not. Wouldn't expect wind noise to generate ringing.

Webicorder primer.

http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/webicorder.html

@Passerby: Thanks for the last link with Jon's seismometers. I wonder if raw wave data coming from those in a common format could be made available. It would be easier to tell what's going on. Or if it's not possible, making spectrograms graphs available. From the compresseed helicorder it seems there's more than just earthquakes.

Sorry, I replied on the wrong thread, please delete post #31 and this one.

Erik, a little question: in all the bibliography avaiable on-line the Shatsky Rise are referred to a supervolcano. But it seems to me that their description make them much more similar to a LIP - Large igneous province - such as Deccan and siberian trap than to a supervolcano. Also the tectonic environment is not the same, since supervolcanoes are much more related to converging plates situation than intraplate or diverging plates ones.
what do you think about it?

Reawakening Redoubt?

eklemetti — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 14:23:53 +0000

Reawakening Redoubt?

The steam plume from the new dome on Redoubt, taken in January 2010. Image courtesy of USGS/AVO, taken by Dennis Anderson.

News comes out of Alaska that a small earthquake swarm has begun under Redoubt. This is the second such swarm since the volcano's 2009 activity ceased. Most of the seismicity appears to be near the summit of the volcano, which would suggest that magma might be moving underneath the new dome that is still steaming.

AVO describes the unrest:
"This morning, at roughly 01:44 AKDT (0944 UTC) a series of small repetitive earthquakes began occurring in the vicinity of the volcano's summit."

If new magma is rising, we might expect to see some phreatic explosions, following by ash plumes and/or a collapse of the new dome producing pyroclastic flows. AVO has returned Redoubt to "Yellow" status, meaning the volcano is showing signs of unrest. I'll post more details when they come.

{Hat tip to Randall Nix for bringing the swarm to my attention.}

eklemetti Mon, 04/05/2010 - 10:23

Tags

Redoubt webcam but it has the same problem right now as the Iceland cams....weather:(
volcanoes.usgs.gov/avo/webcam/redoubt.jpg?0.08147356435956765

The Redoubt trace on RSO_EHZ_AV looks very much like St Helens when it reawakened a few years ago.

So the dome from last year is still hot enough to produce pyroclastic flows?

Tick, tick, tick . . . .

The absence of deeper quakes makes me think that even though things could get dramatic (dome collapse, ash cloud, pyroclastic surge, and lahar) no new material is presently in transit to the surface from the chamber(s) below. A "pop" with no staying power.

from Avo
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php

@Volcanophile, yes I think the dome is still hot enough. It has been steaming very slightly since last year. I am not sure if it stopped or not, but I don't think it did completely.

@Mots? Any input?

Yea, another web cam to monitor.

i'm so bummed..........
i missed this from my local brousing AVO (Alaska Volcano Observatory) is the fourth site on my favs. no... i had to find it here...... i feel so disloyal.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php
and the activity is picking up.

Best!motsfo

Diane, volcanoes can steam for years up here because our
temps are so low........ steaming not much help for precursers.
And if it's not up for a big eruption/ well that would be fine for me.

Best!motsfo

Diane, volcanoes can steam for years up here because our
temps are so low........ steaming not much help for precursers.
And if it's not up for a big eruption/ well that would be fine with me.

Best!motsfo

Thanks Mots. I figured the steaming was bcause of the cold. Anyway, I hope you don't get any ash your way any time soon. :-)

FYI the swarm continues:

Magnitude 3.0 - YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
2010 April 06 03:32:10 UTC

* Details
* Maps

Earthquake Details
Magnitude3.0
Date-Time

* Tuesday, April 06, 2010 at 03:32:10 UTC
* Monday, April 05, 2010 at 09:32:10 PM at epicenter

Location44.599Â°N, 111.004Â°W
Depth5 km (3.1 miles)
RegionYELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
Distances

* 11 km (7 miles) SE (132Â°) from West Yellowstone, MT
* 29 km (18 miles) ENE (67Â°) from Island Park, ID
* 54 km (34 miles) SSW (205Â°) from Gardiner, MT
* 432 km (268 miles) ENE (74Â°) from Boise, ID
* 434 km (269 miles) N (9Â°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertaintyhorizontal +/- 0.4 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 2.9 km (1.8 miles)
ParametersNST= 29, Nph= 29, Dmin=8 km, Rmss=0.22 sec, Gp= 76Â°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=2
Source

* University of Utah Seismograph Stations

Event IDuu00002622

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Iceland, Alaska, Wyoming......that is a direct route to Oklahoma, Austin Texas as the Escarpment, on south to Old Mexico....possibly telling New Madrid hello in passing.....

If Wyoming really blows, there will be so much ash that will cover the southern half of US...most in the watch zone will die...

Is this truly ::: 2012.....the movie ??

@LuRose No, it is just living in the age where the general public can follow all this in real time.

LuRose, I definitely confirm what Gordys said before. The 2012 movie has great animations but no whatsoever scientific value. It's a sci-fi movie. Plus, we're in 2010 not in 2012 ;-D

But seriously. Yellowstone is a volcano that could potentially generate a very large explosive eruption, like it has done in its past. Three of its eruptions in the past little more than 2 million years have been cataclysmic and their repetition today would severely affect a good portion of the U.S. and also have global (economic and possibly climatic) repercussions. The last such enormous eruption - unfortunately often called "supereruption", which is not a very adequate term - occurred about 650,000 years ago.

But Yellowstone has had hundreds of eruptions that nobody talks about because they've been much smaller, and many have occurred since the last great cataclysm, most recently 70,000 years ago. Chances that the next eruption of Yellowstone will be such a modest-sized event are about a thousand times greater than the next eruption will be another gigantic one. And chances that any one of us will see a new eruption in Yellowstone are millions of times inferior to the probability of getting killed in a car crash.

We should then also remember that Yellowstone is only one of a vast number of potentially active huge volcanic systems on this planet. It is the most famous and it lies in the heart of the U.S. which makes it more of a myth than any one of its companion volcanoes. But some of those other volcanoes are far more dangerous in my opinion because (a) they have erupted historically, sometimes repeatedly, and therefore seem to receive higher rates of magma supply than Yellowstone; (b) they are much more densely populated than Yellowstone and thus they will be a threat for millions of human lives even if they produce only relatively small eruptions. One of these lies in the country where I live, Italy; it's called Campi Flegrei, it has one-third of the city of Naples lying WITHIN its caldera, and it has produced two very massive explosive eruptions in the past 40,000 years.

So it's all a question of perspective, and if we want to understand how dangerous and how active Yellowstone really is, we must also understand what other volcanoes of the same type are there. This is not necessarily encouraging, but I would bet my whole stock of fine Etna red wines that we'll see many other volcanoes, even of those larger ones, erupt before something serious happens at Yellowstone.

To underscore Boris' sensible explanation, please see Smithsonian's Global Volcano Program (GVP) Yellowstone volcano summary page

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1205-01-

There have been no magmetic Yellowstone eruptions since the late Pleistocene. Subsequent eruptions in the early Holocene have been hydrothermal. It is also the reason why the USGS was said repeatedly that these swarms are hydrothermal in nature and that there is little reason to fear a cataclysmic magmetic eruption.

Yellowstone has the distinction of being one the worlds largest hydrothermal geyser systems.

The pattern on the RSO Webicorder is similar to one seen occasionally during last year's eruption - sort of a stuttering. A couple times early in the eruption, it was followed by an explosion, but sometimes it wasn't. Just now, the frequency has really dropped, but that could have dual meanings, too. It can't be easy, having to monitor volcanoes and issue hazard warnings on them!

Also, AVO is the only volcano observatory to tweet updates (AFAIK). They started doing this last year. If you're on Twitter, just follow them: http://twitter.com/alaska_avo In between eruptions, there are occasional treats, like this: http://twitpic.com/1apqzy

Maybe this Joker is going to live up to his rep sometime soon, once again.

âThe thing that a lot of people cannot comprehend is that Mother Nature doesn't have a bullet with your name on it, she has millions of bullets inscribed with 'to whom it may concernâ
Anonymous;)

I'm looking forward to seeing the dislocation map for the upper baja region. guessing that it must be up to a meter in some places. Has anyone seen this posted yet?

The latest statement from AVO is up.

"The rate of shallow, small earthquakes at Redoubt Volcano has decreased markedly since yesterday. The Aviation Color Code remains YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level remains ADVISORY.

Satellite and webcam views of Redoubt have been obscured by clouds.

AVO continues to monitor the volcano closely and will attempt to overfly the volcano and measure gases later this week if the weather improves"

Magnitude 7.8 - NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2010 April 06 22:15:02 UTC

* Details
* Maps
* Tsunami

Earthquake Details
Magnitude7.8
Date-Time

* Tuesday, April 06, 2010 at 22:15:02 UTC
* Wednesday, April 07, 2010 at 05:15:02 AM at epicenter

Location2.236Â°N, 97.046Â°E
Depth46 km (28.6 miles)
RegionNORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Distances

* 204 km (127 miles) WNW (287Â°) from Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
* 233 km (145 miles) SW (230Â°) from Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia
* 410 km (255 miles) SSE (152Â°) from Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
* 526 km (327 miles) W (259Â°) from KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia

Location Uncertaintyhorizontal +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles); depth +/- 11.6 km (7.2 miles)
ParametersNST= 58, Nph= 63, Dmin=330.6 km, Rmss=0.81 sec, Gp= 58Â°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source

* U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event IDus2010utc5

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

The 7.8 Sumatra Quake shows up at Redoubt beginning at 22:29 UTC
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php
This really ought to get the 2012 crowd agitated....

@ doug mcl-

The SCSN said, "Overall, the location and focal-mechanism of the earthquake are consistent with the shock having occurred on this fault system. We have received initial measurements from field geologists from the Centro de InvestigaciÃ³n CientÃfica y de EducaciÃ³n Superior de Ensenada, BC. (CICESE) who have observed surface rupture associated with the 2010 event at 32.578621Â° ; -115.725814Â°. Highway 2 was offset at this location by a total of about 1.2 meters across a zone of fractures that offset the road towards the right, and with the east side also dropping downwards. Aftershocks appear to extend in both directions along this fault system from the epicenter of the 4 April 2010 event."

Further on down in the article, it discusses the same surface ruptures in more detail:

"There have been reports that ground deformation due to the earthquake has occurred, with displacement observed on Highway 2 at 32Â°34'43.04"N, 115Â°43'24.19"W. The offset had 12 breaks total, each measuring between 10-20cm, with a cummulative offset of 1.2 meters, with some east-down, but mostly right-lateral strike-slip."

http://www.scsn.org/2010sierraelmayor.html

no pics yet :-(

@Doug C., thank you for the info and the link. That would have produced quite a lot of damage and injury in a more densely populated area. I'm curious how much offset is produced in the initial quake and how much additional offset result, if any, from the after shocks.

And Redoubt seem to be going all harmonicy in the last few minutes too! I wish the weather was clearer.

Almost 900 shakes on the USGS Global EQ Map. The Mag5+ list is impressive. Large MAR quake north of Jan Mayen.

Just checked the CA quake map for S CA and they had 1111 aftershocks from the Baja quake. Quite a few.

Does anyone know what happened to the geothermal plant there? I have no news about it, but I bet the is some serious damage there.

Wondering if the 5.3 EQ in the Aleutian chain yesterday was Cleveland coming into another eruptive activity period.

@Passerby, check with AVO, though they don't monitor Cleveland, they will report something if they can see what is going on.

AVO is the only US volcano observatory that's on Twitter; they started in last year during Redoubt's eruption: http://twitter.com/alaska_avo (AVO has this up on their Redoubt page now, too.) It's nice because not only do you get updates immediately if you're following them, you also get occasional extras, like links to some pictures and, my favorite thus far this year, playing cards: http://twitpic.com/1apqzy

Looks like the Joker is in play again.

On RSO, at http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php , the stuttering small-quake activity is still down, but more quakes are "red-lining," i.e., stronger. Pressure building, perhaps?

This from todays AVO update on Redoubt volcano. Appears to be quieting down.

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
60Â°29'7" N 152Â°44'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW

The swarm of small, shallow earthquakes that began Monday, April 5 at Redoubt Volcano has greatly decreased over the past several days, and is approaching background levels of activity. A gas measurement and observation flight on Thursday, April 8 showed no disruption of the lava dome and measured gas levels were consistent with a passively degassing and cooling dome. It appears less likely that this current episode of unrest will lead to resumed eruptive activity. Although the volcano remains somewhat restless, we would expect a greater degree of seismic activity, significantly elevated gas emissions, and melting of snow and ice on the lava dome if conditions were escalating toward eruption.

The Aviation Color Code remains YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level remains ADVISORY. AVO will continue to issue daily status reports as long as the Aviation Color Code and Alert Level are elevated.

Heavily ice-mantled Redoubt volcano is located on the western side of Cook Inlet, 170 km (106 mi) southwest of Anchorage and 82 km (51 mi) west of Kenai, within Lake Clark National Park. Redoubt is a stratovolcano which rises to 10,197 feet above sea level. Recent eruptions occurred in 1902, 1966-68, 1989-90, and 2009. The 1989-90 and 2009 eruptions produced mudflows, or lahars, that traveled down the Drift River and partially flooded the Drift River Oil Terminal facility. The ash plumes produced by the 1989-90 and 2009 eruptions significantly disrupted air traffic and resulted in minor or trace amounts of ash in the city of Anchorage and other communities in south-central and interior Alaska.

The SCSN has posted a page with numerous photos from the 7.2 Sierra El Mayor Quake (Baja CA) showing scarps, etc...
http://www.scsn.org/in_house_photos6.html

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Friday Flotsam: Volcano lighting, Tungurahua eruption, storing carbon dioxide in lava ... and Yellowstone!

eklemetti — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 02:31:23 +0000

Friday Flotsam: Volcano lighting, Tungurahua eruption, storing carbon dioxide in lava ... and Yellowstone!

Some news for the last Friday in January:

Volcanic lightning captured over Redoubt in March 2009.

Tungurahua in Ecuador continues to erupt. Yesterday, the volcano spread ash over much of central Ecuador. Apparently people in Ecuador aren't taking the hazard of ash too seriously, with many ignoring recommendations to wear masks when the ash is falling. Over 50 explosions have been recorded over the last 24 hours at the volcano according to the Ecuadorian Instituto GeofÃsico, most of them small to moderate.
We also have a new USGS/Smithsonian Institute Volcano Activity Report. Much of the "new" news is on the continuing activity at Soufriere Hills and Tungurahua, but they also have reports from India, Chile, Russia and beyond.
Got some excess CO₂ to sequester? Apparently vesicular basalts might work as a place to keep them - provided they are underwater and covered with sediment.
The Redoubt eruption in March 2009 has given scientists at AVO a chance to study volcanic lightning - and identify it as a new kind of lightning. Instead of forming within the ash column/cloud itself as has been seen before (and caused by ash in the eruption), this lighting was sourced from the vent itself - yes, the volcano was producing lightning. Technically, it was still the static electricity stored on the ash particles, but this new source of lightning had not been identified until now. (hat tip to Jim Wiebe.)

eklemetti Thu, 01/28/2010 - 21:31

Why look for vesicular basalts with overlying sediments when CO2 can easily be trapped in sand with overlying sediments (which is just about anywhere in the oceans). In fact that's already happening in the North Sea and there are numerous plans for more of the same sort of operations around the globe.

That is a really cool picture. I checked out the link about the lightning and the research that McNutt did is facinating. I never imagined that lightning could trigger a seizmic signal, but coming from a volcano I can see where it might. I wonder if any of the meteorologists, etal, have studied something like this with tstorm lightning and ground strikes. I think it would be a rather weak signal, if it registered at all, and the system would have to be very sensitive. Interesting subject.

i got to be in the Redoubt lightning.
It was frightening! The whole inlet was lit up. i couldn't
believe the area involved. i didn't hear any sound.
But spectacular.
Best!motsfo

What is happening in Chile?

McNutt owes me one.

Relatively silicic acid rich Redoubt ash emissions, like a silicon chip, can accumulate and conduct a static charge.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03apr_lunarlifestyle.htm

The pyroclastic ash has a very large surface area due to the poorly graded particle size distribution, which is canted towards very fine (small) particles with an enormous surface area.

Source: Particle sizes of andesitic ash fallout from vertical eruptions and co-pyroclastic flow clouds, VolcÃ¡n de Colima, Mexico (2009).
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/37/10/935.abstract

These pyroclastic ash clouds rise quite high (well above the expected mixing zone), readily forming a circuit connecting high altitude charged particles to the ash source (volcano).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MtRedoubtedit1.jpg

The unusual conditions observed during the Spurr, Augustine and Redoubt eruptions occurred during discrete periods of low Solar magnetic (Ap) and Planetary magnetic field activity (aa) activity that correlates very nicely with high charge particle density in the atmosphere (cosmic particle radiation effect is highest during solar minimum). See plot below.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/ap-index-090109.png

(Now I happen to dislike the misguided science presented by author of the whatsupwiththat blog, but the author can plot data with the best of 'em - so we will help him out here as well. The answer to the mystery, the subject of the particularly long-winded but informative blog post, as indicated by the arrow in the plot cited above, is called a geomagnetic jerk).

At the same time, the authors of the Solar Weather website
http://www.spaceweather.com/, will also have a clue why their viewers keep sending in photographic evidence of high altitude particle visual effects (gamma radiation flashes, ice particle halos, sundogs, etc) of purportedly rare phenomenon.

One post, three answers. Not bad, not bad.

I've seen lightning emerge from the vent of Sakurajima in addition to the lightning generated in the roiling ash clouds. But isn't it all produced in the same way?

@Mots: I bet it was scarry! I wish I could have been there to see it. I probably would have been scarred out of my wits, but it would have been a fantastic experience for me. I envy you in a way. Still, I understand the danger of volcanoes. I watched a program where some tourists were taken to a volcano and it decided to erupt with no warning. The scientists had checked it out and there was no indication in the gases or seizmic data that an eruption was immenent. There were two sisters there and one stayed in the bus and the other went to the summit. The good news is they both survived it, but it was one experience they don't want to repeat. I wouldn't have wanted to be there. It was scarry enough watching it.

From my collection:
http://207.14.167.161/RotatingVolcanicPlume.jpg
Enjoy!

It was different from thunderstorm lightening. You expect thunderstorm lightening to 'come from above'(i know it discharges differently; but our experience of it is from the sky).... but this stuff could just discharge next to You. It was like walking thu a thunderstorm cloud. Scary.
My poor kids walked home from high school years ago during
an ash fall and the lightening was going off all around them.
Best!motsfo

@Mots and Roland: Yeeouwza! I bet having that stuff going off around you would be very scarry. That pic, Roland is sooo cool. I had not seen that one.

Just goes to show how powerful these monsters are. Even so called small eruptions are not to be taken too lightly. Still they are interesting and facinating to see from a save distance. Cook Inlet is not that safe from Redoubt. It spewed ash for a long way. And that ash can cause silicosis so it is not good to be out in it. But, then, everybody here knows that.

Even smoke from fires is dangerous because of the particulate matterial carried in the smoke.

BTW, I worry more about a fire coming here than I do about a volcano going off. Just think about all the smoke CA had a couple of years ago. Smoke for six weeks! Thick smoke. There have been fires close to town and the smoke was so thick you couldn't see across the road! Volcanic ash and vog are like that and it make you miserable. The point is, fires, floods, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes, earthquakes happen. I'm in a fire prone area. Some of you live in a flood prone area. There are volcanic prone areas. We all have things to deal with if we have some kind of plan as to how to deal with these things it helps.

Mots, if Redoubt goes off again, if you can, take pic and tell us about what is was like. I know you have done that already. Just hearing what you saw and heard and felt is worth a lot.

Cheers

I have some good info on preparedness. Go to

www.flylady.net

On the left side of the page, there is a purple box. Click on site map. When that page comes up, there will be pink boxes. The one you want is on the left and you scroll down until you find the 11 points of being prepared for evacuation. It is pretty thorough. Be sure to read the blurb at the bottom of the page. It will give you an idea of how long ,even when prepared, it can take to get all you want into cars and such. So now is the time to decide what you want to take with you and what you can leave behind.

For smoke and ash, you will need 3M N95 masks as a minimum. Ash is generally silica and can be very small. We are talking -.03 microns here! That will go through the inexpensive masks you get at the hardware store. I have seen a lab safety film that showed dry silica going through a #100,000 classifier (that is 100,000 X 100,000 holes/sq"!) and water did not go through! So just think about it and have some masks on hand for anything that has particulates. The N95s are also better for virus protection in case of a breakout.

Hope this helps.

good info on the masks, I did not know that.
THANKS Diane

We don't need to sequester any CO2.
Please stop the hoax based on semi science, fraud and spin.

@Fitz: You are very welcome. I did make a typo. I put .03 microns and it should be 0.3 microns. It still will go though the regular masks they sell in hardware stores. Silica is nasty stuff.

@Ron de Haan: I believe Erik knows we don't need to store CO2. He is just showing us some more stuff that some people think is the way to go. More arglebargle.

By the way, the photo that Roland (comment #7) linked is of the initial Plinian phase of the ChaitÃ©n eruption in May 2008. It was originally published in the Chilean newspaper "Las Ultimas Noticias" on 4 May 2008 (http://www.lun.com - go to "Ediciones anteriores" to find the issue of that day). The photo is one of a whole series, some of the most awesome volcano photography I've ever seen!

Wednesday Whatzits: Mayon and Redoubt Quieten, Nyamuragira news and more on Turrialba

eklemetti — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 09:33:22 +0000

Wednesday Whatzits: Mayon and Redoubt Quieten, Nyamuragira news and more on Turrialba

Two volcanoes down, two volcanoes up!

Fire fountain on Nyamuragira in the Congo, January 2010.

Down
Mayon
Activity at Mayon has continues to drop - although PHIVOLCS warns that an eruption could happen at any moment and without much warning. About a quarter of the evacuated families have no returned home since PHIVOLCS gave the OK to return home on January 2 - but Philippine officials are still on alert in case evacuations have to be reinstated.

Redoubt
The resurgent Redoubt is no long ... er ... resurging? AVO lowered the alert status to Green - meaning normal/background levels of activity. Seismicity and degassing have both returned to typical background states for the volcano. So much for Redoubt.

Up
Nyamuragira
The eruption of Nyamuragira in the Congo is still going strong. The AP posted some video of the sheet of fire fountaining coming from the fissure vent on the southern flank of the volcano while ITN captured video of a small cone building around one of the vents. It appears that multiple areas on the volcano are issuing lava and gases, so it seems like a significant event. Two days ago the lava flows had already travelled over 4 km. And in a bit of a "huh?" moment, UN troops are being used to protect the endangered chimpanzee in the area from the eruption. If you want some context for Virunga National Park and the significance of the area, you can check out a couple articles written by other ScienceBloggers on Nyamuragira and the Congo.

Turrialba
Finally, to follow up on yesterday's news that Turrialba is erupting for the first time in over 100 years, the ComisiÃ³n Nacional de Emergencias in Costa Rica has put the volcano on a "medium level" alert after the ash explosion on Tuesday. Fifty people have so far been evacuated from the slopes of the volcano as a precaution.

eklemetti Wed, 01/06/2010 - 04:33

Tags

'Troops protect chimps from volcano lava' - an early entrant for my favourite volcano-related headline of 2010. Happy new year, Erik!

Heard it all now....

When a lava flow is involved, I think peoplereally shouldnt monkey around lol...

Question for Boris... if you would kindly explain... What is the unusual noise that appears on the vesuvius seismographs now and again.. by that I mean the none standard quake patterns? I'm guessing low hydrothermal activity but remain uneducated. Thanks for any help.

"Troops protect chimps from volcano lava"? With loopy science writing like that, maybe the publication needs to change its name, from "New Scientist" to "New Age Scientist".

Updated info about Turrialba is coming from the La NaciÃ³n newspaper (http://www.nacion.com): geologists visited the volcano during the day (6 January 2010) and reported "continuous vigorous activity" with emission of ash, whereupon the alert status of the volcano was raised from green to yellow. We have yet to await the results of analysis of tephra samples to learn whether this is all old pulverizd rock (and therefore a phreatic eruption) or if it contains fresh magmatic material, which would indicate a higher risk of a major, hazardous eruption.

qvccqwccwcwqcqwc

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Eruption update for 1/4/2009: Mayon, Nyamuragira, Galeras, Kilauea and Redoubt

eklemetti — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 21:07:02 +0000

Eruption update for 1/4/2009: Mayon, Nyamuragira, Galeras, Kilauea and Redoubt

A pile of news for the new week!

The glow of new lava flows from Nyamuragira in the Congo, taken from the Virunga Park Headquarters, January 2, 2010.

Mayon
PHIVOLCS may lower the alert status at Mayon to Level 2 after almost a week of lower seismicity and no ash explosions since December 29th. Schools that were being used as evacuation centers were also returned to teachers and students for the start of classes after the Christmas holiday. However, the Albay provincial government is now considering a plan to permanently move everyone who lives within the 6-km danger zone around Mayon, even if the volcano no longer shows signs of eruption.

Nyamuragira
Over in the Congo, Nyamuragira continues to erupt. The United Nations has been called in to help monitor the situation from the air - mostly to make sure officials in the Congo know where the lava is going in the Virunga National Park and whether it might become a threat to the city of Goma. Some villages near the volcano are now coming under threat from the lava flows, but thus far, no injuries have been reported. Kenyan TV has posted some great video of the rift eruption that is producing tall fire fountains of the especially low viscosity (unlike what the video says) high-potassium basalts erupted from Nyamuragira. These high K lavas are so low in viscosity thanks to the potassium breaking the bonds in the silica network that makes up most magmas that erupt on Earth - so even though basalts are usually quite runny, the basalts from Nyamuragira are especially so - thus, the ability to flow tens of kilometers from the vent.

Galeras
Jumping across the Atlantic, Galeras has settled down after its impressive explosive eruption over the weekend. INGEOMINAS lowered the alert level at Galeras on Sunday after signs of more explosions dissipated. However, considering how unexpected Saturday's eruption was, people should stay on alert for more activity. Some more video of the eruption clearly shows lightning as well as the eruption plume during Saturday's big boom.

Redoubt
One more continent! Redoubt in Alaska seems to also be coming down from its late 2009 signs of life. Currently, AVO reports that "seismic activity at Redoubt Volcano remains low" and only a faint steam plume is visible when not obscured by clouds. Seems like Redoubt was just teasing us for attention.

Kilauea
Say, did you know that January is Volcano Awareness Month? It is ... at least in Hawai`i. Not that anyone who lives in the big island wouldn't be aware of the volcanoes of the state, but rather HVO is holding a month's worth of educational features to help educate the public on the wonders and hazards of the world's most closely watched volcano. This month also marks the 27th anniversary of the start of the current eruption of Kilauea - you can also see video of the current activity at the Haleuma`uma`u crater, including the draining of the lava lake that occurred last week.

eklemetti Sun, 01/03/2010 - 16:07

Nyamuragira is also ejecting an interesting amount of SO2: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/blowup_drag_ME.html

Hmm... Tungurahua shows a little SO2 cloud today as well. Washington VAAC concurs with this.

I have a question about SO2 and CO2. It seems SO2 is the one measured most of the time. Is CO2 released along with the SO2? I thought it was as well as other gases. My DH and I think that a lot of the "global warming" talk takes what humans are releasing as the main "cause" when volcanoes, erupting or not, release far more than any of the industrial activity going on. Are there any reports of how much CO2 volcanoes are emitting? I know SO2 is one of the most dangerous because of the acid rain and other things it causes, but the CO2 shouldn't be ignored because there is a tree kill zone in Long Valley because of the CO2 coming out of the ground there. Then there is the Norris Basin in Yellowstone. So I am just wondering about the amounts of CO2 being released.

Thanks for any info.

Any info that disproves something about global warming is ignoring by those who beleive in it and thrown under the rug. Tell Al Gore about that and see what nonsense he spews out. And they call that science when you disregard some facts and tell other people lies. That is a Psedoscience like Astrology! As for Co2 they know volcanoes produce way more CO2 then humans do but they just ignore that fact or try to tell you it does not matter.

Actually, I am more interested in how much volcanoes produce than what the "global warming" people say. And what other kinds of gases are produced by them. I mean you can be killed by some of those gases if you don't wear a gas mask if you are near them.

I know the Al Gores etal are telling a lot of nonsense. That came out recently and I think it was really funny that it snowed in Copenhagen during the conference. Yeah, it was warm. Yeah, right! I could say more about it, but this is not the place.

So any info about the amount of gases some of the volcanoes are releasing would be interesting to me. I could compare SO2 with CO2 emissions and learn something.

It's a lot more then humans produce by burning fossil fuels I can tell you that.

Redoubt now lowered to green.

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The 2009 Pliny for Volcanic Event of the Year goes to ...

eklemetti — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 02:46:45 +0000

The 2009 Pliny for Volcanic Event of the Year goes to ...

2009 is over! If you missed the Volcanic Year in Review, check out my summary of the volcanic events that captivated many of us over the past year. However, only one event will get the coveted 2009 Pliny for Volcanic Event of the Year. A lot of you wrote in with votes and comments - I thank you - and a number of events stood out in your mind. Here we go:

Honorable mention
A few volcanic events got multiple votes:
- Soufriere Hills on Montserrat.
- Mando Hararo in Ethiopia.
- Chaiten, Chile and the new research on the eruption.
- The earthquakes in western Saudi Arabia under the Harrat Lunayyir volcanic field.

The Top 5
4 (tied): West Mata and Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai erupting in March 2009.
It seems oddly fitting that two submarine volcanic eruptions tied for 4th. Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eventually became subaerial, but West Mata showed us the first real explosive volcanism caught on camera in deep ocean conditions.

3: Mayon, Philippines

Mayon erupting with lava flows from the summit dome, December 2009.
Possibly the last year activity helped boost its placing, but a large Mayon eruption would be a significant event no matter what. While that hasn't happened just yet, over 50,000 people have been evacuated and lava flows are cascading down the sides of the picturesque Philippine volcano. Look for Mayon to make news well into 2010.

2: Redoubt, Alaska

Redoubt erupting on March 28, 2009. Image courtesy of AVO/USGS, taken by Tricia Joy Sadler.
The eruption of Redoubt got our attention in January and didn't let go for months - will it erupt? When will it erupt? How big will it be? When all was said and done (?), the eruption was relatively minor - the Anchorage airports were only briefly closed and the oil production in the area has resumed (albeit with the Drift River Oil Terminal closed for good). However, the lasting legacy of Redoubt might be how closely this event was monitored from start to finish by the Alaska Volcano Observatory - and how much information they put out for public consumption (via Twitter no less). Redoubt was the first 21st century, digital age volcanic eruption ... and it might not be over.

The 2009 Pliny winner for Volcanic Event of the Year

Sarychev Peak, Russia

Sarychev Peak erupting in June 2009, taken from the ISS.
It might have come out of the blue - it might not have even lasted as long as other eruptions in 2009, but it was the images of the Sarychev Peak eruption that captured out imagination. The sequence of pictures taken of the plume from the International Space Station might be the most stunning images of a volcanic eruption ever taken and the plethora of satellite images of the eruption collected by the NASA Earth Observatory let us see the mammoth eruption in all its splendor. The eruption wreaked havoc on transpacific flights over the Kuril Islands for weeks - but it is fascinating that an eruption that took place near almost no one has ended up being seen by almost everyone.

Happy 2010 to all my Eruptions readers ... !

eklemetti Thu, 12/31/2009 - 21:46

Happy new 2010 to everybody and Congratulations to Sarychev, a volcano that I am sure fully deserved being "the volcano of the year". Not only because it featured spectacularly in one of the most spectacular volcano photos ever taken, but also because it was a BIG eruption - a far cry maybe from ChaitÃ©n or Pinatubo, but probably among the most voluminous eruptions of the year.
Now let's see what volcanic events the new year will bring ... Mayon seems to be dropping out of sight for the moment (but I remember during its 1984 eruption it came back spectacularly after about one week of very low level activity, and also in 1993 and 2001 there were significant pauses in the activity).

i appreciate Your considering Redoubt as the Volcano of the Year. i live across Cook Inlet and my little grandson lives 70 miles south of me and had a clear view of one of the more spectacular eruptions and happened to be out in his yard talking to me on a cell phone. He was quite concerned and was telling me all about it......"Mots, Mots..... it's scary scary!" as the hugh black cloud exploded upward. i couldn't see a thing; being too close and having a cloudy sky. It's alright, It's Ok, It's going to be ok, i tried to console the little guy...... He turned to the rest of the crowd and announced releaved...."Mots says it's going to be ok." with total relief. ........

Later i caught a film of that particular explosion........
it WAS SCARRY SCARRY! i don't think my grandmother could have convinced me that it was going to be all right!

What undeserved power we have.
Happy New Year, Everyone!
Try to deserve the trust of our grandchildren.
Best!motsfo

Well, obviously this one had my vote; timing is everything. If the ISS had been 15 minutes earlier or an hour later, this growing eruption column would have been either missed or spread out. They caught in ascent; lucky and spectacular.

First new eruption of the year 2010: Piton de la Fournaise (RÃ©union Island, Indian Ocean). This event is announced on the web site of the RÃ©union island newspaper "Journal de l'Ã®le" (http://www.jir.fr/index.php?id_article=232698&page=article) and at http://www.fournaise.info/, whereas no news has yet been posted at the web site of the volcanological observatory of Piton de la Fournaise: http://www.ipgp.fr/pages/03030807.php

A dictator may termination for a pongid but never wish for a birdie's snoot

More and lots more people maintain preconditioned notion that MLM is a scam since they or somebody they know has hit a brick wall at building an mlm establishment before. Nothing is brand new with that. 95% of companies fail within their very initial 5 years and 5% fall short of their first 10 years. That is a Government information and it has completely nothing to complete with MLM. Does that imply you shouldn't give yourself an opportunity of the American vision by means of free enterprise?

278Colker@yahoo.com

2009: The Volcanic Year in Review

eklemetti — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 09:45:45 +0000

2009: The Volcanic Year in Review

Here it is, my attempt to recap a year's worth of volcanic events. By no means is this supposed to capture every event, but rather the highlight/lowlights and what most captivated me during 2009. I'll be announcing the winner of the 2009 Pliny for Volcanic Event of the Year tomorrow.

Waimangu Geothermal Valley in New Zealand, taken in January 2009 by Erik Klemetti.

January
The year started out with a trip to New Zealand (well, for me at least) and vistas of the Waimangu Valley, formed in the 1886 eruption of Tarawera on the North Island. We were also still thinking about the late 2008 earthquake swarm at Yellowstone, which didn't lead to anything in 2009. British scientists suggested that Antarctica has been experiencing subglacial eruption, which might account for some of the melting of the ice on the southern continent. However, what really got our attention in January was the Mt. Redoubt in Alaska, with the volcano being put on alert by AVO on January 26th - leading to months of speculation about what might happen. By the end of the month (4 days later), the volcano was all over the news and concern about the Drift River Oil Terminal was high.

February
It was the Redoubt wait that dominated the volcano news during February. Earthquakes, steam and speculation were the order of the day. We also got news of recent eruptions at NW-Rota 1 from Dr. Ed Kohut off on a research cruise in the Pacific. Chaiten was still going strong, but the social fallout from the relocation of the town of Chaiten was proving to be a major problem was well. Finally, volcano monitoring made a surprise splash at the end of the month when Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal suggested that monitoring volcanoes was "wasteful" - he learned quickly that badmouthing volcanologists is not a good idea.

March
We had to wait most of the month, but right after AVO thought things were winding down at Redoubt, the volcano goes and erupts anyway on March 23rd. It wasn't a little eruption either, throwing ash to over 50,000 ft / 15 km and eventually closing the international airport in Anchorage. March ended up being a double feature, with the surprise - and very impressive - eruption of Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai in the island nation of Tonga. This eruption started as an undersea eruption noticed by commercial pilots in the area and quickly became a classic island-building event. We also had a lot of noise about the earthquake swarms in the Bombay Beach area long the San Andreas fault in southern California. March also marked my move from Wordpress to ScienceBlogs - so I send a special thanks to all the readers who came with me and all my new readers - if you can believe it, Eruptions will be just short of half a million visits in the 10 months since coming to ScienceBlogs!

Llaima in Chile erupting in April 2009.

April
April ended up being my busiest month - with over 50 posts in the month alone. A lot of that was, again, dominated by Redoubt's activity that continued throughout the month. We also saw impressive eruptions of Llaima in Chile and new fissure eruptions at Fernandina in the Galapagos Islands. I addressed some concerns people have on the dangers of geothermal drilling causing an eruption (short answer: probably not). We also got an inside look at the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and I got all worked up about some questionable volcano journalism (what a surprise).

May
May marked two anniversaries: one was for Eruptions, the other, more important one marked one year of eruptions at Chaiten in Chile. The eruption that got me on this blogging track was still going strong after a year, with at least three domes growing inside the Chaiten caldera. Of course, we were also still waiting for the big dome collapse at Redoubt as well, but little came of that. We also got the first glimpse of West Mata erupting in the Lau Basin of the Pacific - the media would really get fired up about this in December when video was released. However, the most exciting event of the month was the earthquake swarm and potential threat of volcanic eruption in the Harrat Lunayyir region of Saudi Arabia. At times, I felt like I was the only person covering the event, getting reports from people on the ground in Saudi Arabia - but when all was said-and-done, no eruption came.

June
We had two volcanoes headed in opposite directions in June. First, Redoubt settled down for the summer. Second, Sarychev Peak in Russia blew its top in a spectacular fashion - disrupting air traffic all across the Pacific. The eruption was a major sulfur dioxide event and provided one of the most stunning volcano images - well, ever. The eruption did a number to the small island of Matau. Sarychev Peak wasn't the only volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula making noise: Shiveluch also had a major eruption. In June, we also got the first taste of the "Mt. Saint Helens: Supervolcano" controversy and media disaster that would come back later in the year. Finally, my colleagues at UC Davis, Naomi Marks, Peter Schiffman and Robert Zeirenberg, made the news by drilling into an active rhyolite magma in Iceland - nice way to end the month!

Sarychev Peak erupting in June 2009.

July
Volcanically speaking, things quieted down during summer after a very busy spring. The biggest news for July was likely eruption at Mando Hararo in Ethiopia - adding more fissure volcanism in the East African Rift. Of course, it might have been most fascinating to Eruptions readers because one of your own might have been the first to notice the eruption actually occurred. Over in Hawai`i, a rockfall captured on camera temporarily "snuffed out" the Halema`uma`u vent, but it didn't take long for lava to retake the crater. Mayon offered foreshadowing of things to come with evacuations prompted by the beginning of the current eruption.

August
August was especially quite around these parts - thanks partially to my move from California to Ohio, but also to the fact that, well, not much happened (so much for 2009 being an "anomalously volcanic" year). We started the month with some news that there might have been a volcanic eruption on Venus. I've since lost track of the research on this event - anybody have any new theories in what happened on our sister planet? Kamchatka was in the news, mostly because it was such a volcanically active area in 2009 - 5 volcanoes were erupting at once during August - and a new geyser was found as well. And if you need something to read in the long winter months, check out my favorite volcano books.

September
Things picked back up once the fall began. I dabbled in the world of "manmade volcanoes" (short answer: bad idea unless they erupt a dinosaur). In what now seems premature, the eruption at Soufriere Hills on Montserrat was declared "over" after 6 months of quiet at the volcano. We all know what came two weeks later. The international media was all over the proclamation that Australia was "overdue" for a volcanic eruption - a notion that most people think is fear-mongering at its best. There was some suggestion of something happening at Mt. Rainier - but what exactly is still a mystery. Finally, after 6 months of eruptions and noise, AVO lowered the warning level at Redoubt to green (normal). The eruption was over ... or is it?

Nevado del Huila in Colombia steaming from the summit in 2009.

October
With Redoubt out of the picture (for now), a couple of new volcanoes took to the streets. Gaua in Vanuatu erupted, prompting evacuations of people living near the island volcano. We also saw more activity at Huila in Colombia - it was a busy year for volcanic eruptions in Colombia, with eruptions at Huila and Galeras, along with signs of life from the slumbering volcano of Machin (enough to prompt the Colombian government to ponder diverting a major highway to avoid it getting cut by a Machin eruption). A study in Nature was published showing that the magma erupted during 2008-09 at Chaiten shot through the crust - and then you got to ask Dr. Jonathan Castro, coauthor of the study - all about Chaiten. I also attended the GSA Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon, where I found out some fun information on Toba, New York kimberlites and Mackenzie Pass.

November
Two non-events dominated a lot of the discussion during November. First was the attention paid to the idea that geologists could "destroy Naples" through exploratory drilling into the Campei Flegrei. Second was the non-eruption of Karkar in Papau New Guinea - we all thought a major eruption occurred, but now it looks like the satellites might have been a bit confused, thanks to reports from the ground. Dr. Boris Behncke answered your questions about Italian volcanoes. Both Gaua and Soufriere Hills were full-steam-ahead when it came to their respective eruptions.

Mayon erupting in December 2009.

December
As 2009 closed out, all eyes turned to the Philippines and the eruption of Mayon. The volcano produced some impressive lava flows and avalanches, but as of December 30, the big explosive event that PHIVOLCS is thinking is in the cards has yet to arrive. Large-scale evacuations have occurred, but keeping people out of the danger zone has been problematic. Piton de la Fournaise on Reunion Island actually erupted first in November, but the December eruption was captured in time-lapse video, showing the growth of the fissure vent eruption on the basaltic shield volcano. Soufriere Hills stayed in the news, causing power problems on Montserrat and ash from the volcano cancelled flights as far away as Puerto Rico. And in a bit of a surprise, as 2009 closed out, Redoubt was put back on Yellow Alert status after new signs of potential activity.

So there is 2009 in a nutshell ... any predictions for 2010 (volcanically speaking)?

eklemetti Thu, 12/31/2009 - 04:45

Tags

Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai

NASA Earth Observatory

Piton de la Fournaise

Pliny

Politics of volcanoes

Volcano Hazards Program

volcano monitoring

Volcano Research

volcano scientist

volcanoes in the media

Newer Volcanic Province

volcanoes in the media

No mention of Anak Krakatau?

I gather it's died down for now, but it was quite spectacular early in the year. I've been wondering what its recent eruptions have done to its height, but I find it difficult to find much about it.

David - Yeah, not everything made "the list", but Anak did its usual - some spectacular Strombolian eruptions.

If its not too late in the year, I'd like to formally propose a theory. I believe that renewed volcanic activity is directly caused by volcanologists declaring the prior eruptive phase to be "over".

I'll propose a test for this theory as soon as I find a recently dormant volcano where nobody lives, since nearby residents would likely come after me if I used them as guinea pigs.

This follows my previous theory: that lightning actually never struck twice, until people made the phrase popular.

@Fritz: good thinking Ollie!

Personally, I don't believe any volcano or crater is actually extinct. Dormant, yes. But extinct? I could be wrong, of course. But when a volcano comes up in a corn field in Mexico, wouldn't you think one could come up just about anywhere? It would be pretty difficult for magma to come up in the Sierras, but it could happen.

Anyway, I look for Redoubt to wake up again and I also look for the crater at Kilauea to begin fountaining sometime. It may not because it fills and drains, but you never know. It was really roiling the other day. And then Kamchatka. Somebody there will erupt and it just remains as to who.

I notice that there are repeated small quakes at Mammoth Mt. and I suspect they are techtonic. For it to start getting restless is a long shot.

And what about the Sisters in Oregon? Has the inflation there deflated? It sure made the news when they discovered it with GPS.

That's enough for now.

Happy New year Erik and all who post and come to this site. Love it.

My prediction is that one or two volcano surprises in 2010 will help bring the eruptions log up to a cummulative count of 2M visitors for all of 2010. In fact, the New York Times included a link to to the Eruptions blog (re. the carribean flight cancelations due to Soufrier activity) yesterday. Also, that human caused climate change deniers will increasingly look to volcano science,(rather, psuedo science), to support their assertions that it isn't happening.

Y'all might be interested in Alaska's new volcano playing cards: http://www.dggs.dnr.state.ak.us/pubs/pubs?reqtype=citation&ID=20401 . 52 historically active volcanoes = playing with a full deck. :)

I am pretty certain that Etna will be back in the news in 2010 ... tonight it's displaying its usual glow from a vent near the summit, and the full moon is shining on Sicily, where we have an unusually mild (not to say, warm) winter.

And then, thanks Erik for all the effort put into this blog, and the occasional fun you let us have. I wish you and everybody else here a wonderful, spectacular, splendid, volcanic 2010.

@Boris, I forgot about Etna. I think it will do a good show sometime in 2010. I wish the SE Crater would go back to the Stomboli eruptions like it did in the mid '90s. It was so cool. And before Etna Treking took down their cams, my DH and I watched the eruption in 2006 (not sure of the year LOL) for six hours! That was so neat to watch blocks come down over the rim. We just couldn't take our eyes off of it. Then all at once they shut down the cams. Now they are back, and not as good as they were, but at least they are there.

As long as Etna doesn't do a lot of damage, let'er rip.

Thanks for answering all our questions, too, Boris.

Guessing the future is very chancy. While anything can happen from Rabaul to Redoubt to Ranier or Mayon to Machin to Mammoth Mountain and the Philipines, Indonesia, Kamchatka, Alaskan Islands, South and Central America all have the ability to unleash large eruptions --- I'll just make a guess/prediction that Africa will have some exciting activity because the continent is slowly rifting apart.

I suppose the finding of the extra hot magma in the area may have caught my imagination and just led me to think that the volcanic activity in the area has some legs to it and there may be a long-term upswing in geological activity in the area and so we may continue witnessing the start of what will be a large lava field that will cover a vast area.

I will guess that Machin might hold off for a few years in erupting.

I'll keep watching Lazufre, but I guess any volcanic activity there will be more than two years away - or maybe even hundreds of years provided it keeps growing.

An American science TV show had an episode on Vesuvius. They pointed out that eruptions at Vesuvius have historically trailed big earthquakes by a number of years. Now, the eruption that destroyed Pompeii was also proceeded by a strong quake about 15 or 17 years earlier (can't exactly remember). This was something I viewed on yet another American TV show. Some scientists wonder if last years deadly earthquake in Italy could already have pulled the trigger on the next Vesuvius eruption. (My hunch is that Vesuvius will probably stay dormant for at least the next three years - even if the trigger was pulled.)

Ranier will probably make it into the news - even if it doesn't erupt. Some scientist will make some statement about how dangerous it is. It can easily send a lot of material into a nearby town - and the healthy might be able to flee by foot when the automated alarm goes off.

So my only guess is activity at the rift valley in Africa.

The Galapagos Islands are the most incredible living museum of evolutionary changes, with a huge variety of endemic species (birds, land and sea animals, plants) and especially active volcanoes.

First of my volcanic related predictions would have to be the threat of lahars in relation to the current eruption of mayon. Think it woul be wise to relocate people whilst they are out of the danger zone so to speak....

Wild guess predictions would be a eruption of Mauna Loa. Think that one is due. Maybe one of the New Zealand volcanoes could spring into life...White Island perhaps..
Vesuvius remains ever present in my mind but I'm saying nothing regarding that one.

I think I would like to see some spectacular eruption in some unpopulated area...Erebus maybe

Unfortunately my pin for a disasster falls on the Eastern seaboard area of America not gonna say unless prompted but thats the general area.

Happy New Year and keep up the good work Erik!!!!

Vesuvius may well stay silent for many centuries - consider that before it erupted in AD 79 to destroy Pompeii and other Roman towns, it probably was quiescent for 800 years, and the second worst of its eruptions in history, in 1631, was preceded by nearly 500 years of inactivity. Now we're at 66 years, so that's not very much in comparison.
I'd rather be worried about those Italian volcanoes that there is much less talk about, especially abroad - like Campi Flegrei, on the other (western) side of Naples (last eruption was in 1538) and Vulcano on the southernmost of the Aeolian islands (last eruption 1888-1890). Both have shown significant unrest in the past few decades, and my guts tell me at least one of them will erupt before Vesuvius will come back to life.
Mauna Loa? It seemed to be building up to an eruption a few years ago, but presently there seems to be very little going on there, so I don't really expect it to do something very soon.
Somebody named Unzen as a candidate for an eruption in the near future. My guess is it will not erupt for several centuries - the previous eruption (prior to 1990-1995) was in 1792, so that one seems to erupt quite infrequently.
I'd imagine some other Japanese volcano to do something major this year - it's been quite a while since there's been a significant eruption in Japan (10 years, since Miyakejima's caldera collapse and Usu's phreatic eruption/uplift in 2000). Back in the 1970s and 1980s there would be one major eruption in Japan roughly every 3 years.

Let's hope that one in the Canary Islands doesn't slide into the ocean! The eastern sea board would be history. As for Mammoth Mt., I don't think that one is going to do anything. I would be more concerned about the resurgent dome in Long Valley. But the tiny quakes are coming and they seem to be on the fault.

Just about anything can happen. Even Lassen could do something, though it is very remote that it will do anything except just sit there and be a nice climb for somebody who wants to climb a volcano. Been there and done that---twice. Nice climb. 15% grade at most, 5 mile round trip, 2000' gain in altitude. I wish I could do it again.

Yellowstone. That beautiful place that has geysers that put on shows and seems safe enough. Well, it is at the moment even if it is putting out a lot of C02.

And this global warming thing...why is it that they forget how much S02 and C02 is being released into the atmosphere from all the volcanoes that are fuming and spewing and erupting? What was it Boris said about Etna releasing 800 tonnes of C02/day? Or was it more? Anyway, that is only ONE volcano! How about Kilauea?

Oh well, we will have a good time watching to see where the next eruption will be and I just hope it doesn't cause a lot of havoc.

Take care when any of you are on any of these volatile mountains. But if you have a chance, climb Mt. Lassen. You won't be sorry you did.

For parochial reasons more than anything, I think something might happen in NZ/Kermadec Trench. There is a lot of rifting in the TVZ (18 mm) a year, currently there are about 5 active earthquake swarms in the TVZ (one of them under the major vent of the last Taupo eruption (Horomatangi reef in the middle of the lake) and one right under Mt Edgecumbe north of Mt. Tarawera. Four of the swarms are on precisely the same fault lines as the most recent eruptions in the zone. An intriguing one is just south of Taupo in a geothermal area also in a graben setting (Roto Aira). And there have been a couple of small earthquakes in the Auckland volcanic field recently (not a seismically active region at all). The AVC intrigues me a lot - a young mafic field erupting through lithic crust in a region without any obvious seismic activity. Most strange. BTW it is also said to erupt about once every six hundred years.

.. and to extend my insular thinking a little further north. The rates of subduction up around Tonga are huge and there is major earthquake activity up there too. I think we could easily see more island building or submarine activity from that region too, not to forgot the entire Bismarck Island/New Guinea/Indonesia chain where the same applies.

oh bugger...lol of course I meant the western sea board in my above comment, thanks dianne for bringing that to my attention. East lol that would be unbelievable!!!

Living in Chile, the LLaima and Chaiten eruptions were high point over the past several months. I'm in the process of finishing a book on the Valdivia Earthquake of 1960 (Mw 9.5) and am including a chapter on volcanism which resulted from the events at that time and have been searching for photos of the Cordon Caulle eruption that began May 24, 1960. If anyone has anything appropriate I'd be very grateful and will include all appropriate citations.

We've had our guesses for the eruptions of 2010. Now they're starting: today (2 January 2010), both Piton de la Fournaise (RÃ©union island, Indian Ocean) and Nyamuragira (Congo) went into eruption.
http://www.jir.fr/index.php?id_article=232698&page=article
http://www.ipgp.fr/pages/03030807.php
http://www.fournaise.info
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100102/ap_on_re_af/af_congo_volcano_1

Well, Stephen, They have been talking about that volcano in the Canarys (or is it the Azores)that if the part of it that is very precarious slid into the ocean, there would be a tsunami that would probably wipe out the eastern coast.

I agree with you about the west coast. We get a lot of quakes here and there was a swarm just at the foot of Mt. Lassen that had about 90 small quakes. There was a new one on Mammoth Mountain this morning and I check to see how deep they are and they are shallow---about three miles down. I think there are about 20 of them right now. Since there is a fault right there, I think they are techtonic rather than magmatic.

Anyway, I think there will be a lot more activity near Tonga, also. They do get a lot of quakes there. That entire area is so active because of the trenches and subductions that there could be a lot of volcanic activity with just the right amount of shaking and how the waves interact with the volcanoes.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens and where. I just wish I could go see some of the eruptions---at a safe distance, though. :-)

Speaking of quakes, there was a 6.2 in the Mariannas region this morning at 12:45am my time. And Tonga area had a 5. It seems that Tonga has one almost every other day in the 5 range.

We will definitely see more of that.

I know that volcanos and earthquakes are around for centuries, but I can not help thinking of these words "earthquakes in one place after another, when you see all these things occuring, know the end is near" All these things being things which humans can not control and an intensity in activity not previously witnessed.Can it be we are witnessing a time in history which will be catastrophic and affect every nation on the planet? Whether a person is spiritual or not will not alter the facts.Can it be said that both earthquake and volcano activity has increased alarmingly in the past few years? I dont know, I'm no expert but keen to know what the experts do think, honestly.

I know that volcanos and earthquakes are around for centuries, but I can not help thinking of these words "earthquakes in one place after another, when you see all these things, know the end is near" All these things being things which humans can not control and an intensity in activity not previously witnessed.Can it be we are witnessing a time in history which will be catastrophic and affect every nation on the planet? Whether a person is spiritual or not will not alter the facts.Can it be said that both earthquake and volcano activity has increased alarmingly in the past few years? I dont know, I'm no expert but keen to know what the experts do think, honestly.