Leviathan
https://scienceblogs.com/
enMessier Monday: The Whirlpool Galaxy, M51
https://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/04/15/messier-monday-the-whirlpool-galaxy-m51
<span>Messier Monday: The Whirlpool Galaxy, M51</span>
<div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>"Upon one occasion, while engaged upon a seven-foot mirror, he did not remove his hands from it for 16 hours together." -<em>from <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FA0812FF3E5F15738DDDA80894D0405B8084F0D3">Caroline Herschel's obituary</a></em></p></blockquote>
<p>Welcome to another <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/?s=messier+monday">Messier Monday</a> here on <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/">Starts With A Bang</a>! Each Monday, we highlight a different one of the 110 deep-sky objects that Messier catalogued so that comet-hunters wouldn't confuse these permanent fixtures with transient comets. But each object has a unique, remarkable story in its own right.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/Messier_Objects_51.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27716" alt="Image credit: The Messier Objects by Alistair Symon, from 2005-2009." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/Messier_Objects_51-600x375.jpg" width="600" height="375" /></a> Image credit: The Messier Objects by Alistair Symon, from 2005-2009.
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<p>Out of the 110 objects, a full forty of them are <a href="http://messier.seds.org/galaxy.html">galaxies</a> external to our own, with twenty-seven of them being <a href="http://messier.seds.org/spir.html#Messier">spiral galaxies</a>. However, despite Messier's Catalogue being composed in the 18th Century, the spiral nature of their structure was completely unobservable until 1845, when the first (as it was then-called) "<a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/astro801/content/l9_p2.html">spiral nebula</a>" was discovered: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whirlpool_Galaxy">Messier 51</a>. Here's how to find it.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_far.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27717" alt="Image credit: me, using the free software Stellarium, available at http://stellarium.org/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_far-600x375.jpg" width="600" height="375" /></a> Image credit: me, using the free software Stellarium, available at <a href="http://stellarium.org/">http://stellarium.org/</a>.
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<p>Perhaps the most recognizable collection of seven stars in the entire night sky, the asterism of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Dipper">Big Dipper</a> is easily found by even the most novice of skywatchers. And the very first deep-sky object to be identified as a spiral -- although it very likely won't appear as a spiral to <em>your</em> eyes -- can be found by just a little star-hopping from the star at the tip of the handle, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eta_Ursae_Majoris">Alkaid</a>. From the end of the Dipper, just head about 2.5 degrees towards <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cor_Caroli">Cor Caroli</a>, or locate it relative to the surrounding stars (in a telescope at low-power or binoculars) as shown in the image below.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_near.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27718" alt="Image credit: me, using the free software Stellarium." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_near-600x375.jpg" width="600" height="375" /></a> Image credit: me, using the free software Stellarium.
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<p>Now, this is one of the most famous spiral galaxies of all-time, so much so that it has a name: the <a href="http://messier.seds.org/m/m051.html">Whirlpool Galaxy</a>. And while images of it are iconic -- even among amateurs -- you likely won't be able to see the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/97557722@N00/3405012229/">fabulous spiral structure</a> if you're looking with your eye through an eyepiece.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/3405012229_158eaedb62_z.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27720" alt="Image credit: flickr user afrojim123." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/3405012229_158eaedb62_z-600x557.jpeg" width="600" height="557" /></a> Image credit: flickr user afrojim123.
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<p>Until you look through a telescope yourself, you simply don't realize just how faint, diffuse and fuzzy these galaxies actually appear. They're more like hazy, light, monochrome clouds that never move -- to the naked eye, at least -- than they are like the brilliant spirals you see in photographs. This might strike you as odd, though. That's because, <em>routinely</em>, astrophotographers post <a href="http://www.astrobin.com/38809/">stunners like this</a>. (As always, on this and every image, click for the full-size version.)</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/0.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27719" alt="Image credit: Christopher Madson, at http://www.astrobin.com/38809/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/0-600x404.jpeg" width="600" height="404" /></a> Image credit: Christopher Madson, at <a href="http://www.astrobin.com/38809/">http://www.astrobin.com/38809/</a>.
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<p>Astrophotography has the benefit of much longer exposures to bring out the detail your eyes aren't equipped to see, and that's simply because your eyes simply can't gather enough light, quickly enough, to see more structure than that! <a href="http://messier.seds.org/xtra/history/m-cat.html">Messier's original description</a> contained the following:</p>
<blockquote><p>Very faint nebula, without stars, near the eye of the Northern Greyhound, below the star Eta of 2nd magnitude of the tail of Ursa Major... One cannot see this nebula without difficulties with an ordinary telescope of 3.5 foot: Near it is a star of 8th magnitude... It is double, each has a bright center, which are separated 4'35". The two "atmospheres" touch each other, the one is even fainter than the other. Reobserved several times.</p></blockquote>
<p>It wasn't until a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_optical_telescopes_historically#Table_of_optical_telescope_progression_historically">telescope</a> whose mirror was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_of_Parsonstown">a full six feet in diameter</a> became operational that a naked-eye observer, for the first time, was able to see the spiral structure.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/kid_14.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27721" alt="Image credit: Canadian Space Agency, from http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/kid_14-600x400.jpeg" width="600" height="400" /></a> Image credit: Canadian Space Agency, from <a href="http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/">http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/</a>.
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<p>This telescope was the famed <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_of_Parsonstown">Leviathan of Parsonstown</a>, which would have more light-gathering power than any telescope in the world until the dawn of the 20th Century! <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Parsons,_3rd_Earl_of_Rosse">Lord Rosse</a>, who invented many of the new techniques required for constructing such a behemoth, trained his eye on a great many objects both in and beyond the Messier Catalogue. But when he came to the <a href="http://messier.seds.org/m/m051.html">51st object</a>, he was able to produce something that no one else had.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51Sketch.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-27722" alt="Image credit: Lord Rosse, uploaded by wikimedia user Szdori." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51Sketch.jpeg" width="600" height="494" /></a> Image credit: Lord Rosse, uploaded by wikimedia user Szdori.
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<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:M51Sketch.jpg">This now-famous drawing</a> was the very first sketch of a deep-sky object that revealed its spiral structure, and it took a telescope <strong>72-inches</strong> (1.8 meters) in diameter to do it! Over the subsequent years, dozens more were discovered to be spirals, but <a href="http://messier.seds.org/m/m051.html">Messier 51</a> -- now known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whirlpool_Galaxy">the Whirlpool Galaxy</a> -- was the first!</p>
<p>But some of the images we can obtain of it now are truly spectacular. Let's talk you through what's going on here.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url1.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27723" alt="Image credit: Tony and Daphne Hallas of http://www.astrophoto.com/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url1-600x428.jpeg" width="600" height="428" /></a> Image credit: Tony and Daphne Hallas of <a href="http://www.astrophoto.com/">http://www.astrophoto.com/</a>.
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<p>As you can see, there are <em>two</em> galaxies here! There's what appears to be a smaller, severely disrupted elliptical galaxy at one edge of the larger, grand design spiral galaxy that dominates the system.</p>
<p>The spiral arms are clearly distorted by the gravitational presence of the smaller companion, and the hot pink color is a telltale sign of new star formation. Additionally, the bluish color that paves the spiral arms is evidence of young, hot stars (whose color is naturally blue) that have recently formed.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url-2.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27724" alt="Image credit: Adam Block / Mount Lemmon SkyCenter / University of Arizona." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url-2-600x400.jpeg" width="600" height="400" /></a> Image credit: Adam Block / Mount Lemmon SkyCenter / University of Arizona.
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<p>The fact that the larger, spiral-shaped galaxy is only <em>slightly</em> distorted very likely tells us that the elliptical galaxy is much lower in mass, while the intense evidence of star formation in the spiral and severe distortions in the smaller companion show that these two galaxies are in the middle stages of a merger. They've very likely already made their first pass through one another <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999Ap&SS.269..663S">at some point about half-a-billion years ago</a>, are decidedly gravitationally bound, and are coming back for another interaction.</p>
<p>The entire merger process will likely take another two-to-three passes to complete, a cosmic ballet that will last hundreds of millions of years, at <em>minimum</em>.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url-1.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27725" alt="Image credit: The Sloan Digital Sky Survey." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/url-1-600x428.jpeg" width="600" height="428" /></a> Image credit: The Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
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<p>Perhaps unbelievably, Messier 51 is maybe 25% <em>smaller</em> than our own Milky Way in extent, at just about 75,000 light-years in diameter, which would make it only about 160 billion solar masses all told, which may mean it's less than half the mass of the Milky Way all told.</p>
<p>But with a galaxy like this -- this close, this face-on, and this interesting -- you don't pass up the chance to view it in <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005ApJ...633..871C&db_key=AST&link_type=ABSTRACT">as many different wavelengths</a> as possible.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/m51ga.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-27726" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / GALEX." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/m51ga.jpeg" width="600" height="603" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / GALEX.
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<p>The Ultraviolet view, courtesy of <a href="http://www.galex.caltech.edu/">GALEX</a>, shows off the hot, blue stars in the face-on spiral, while the companion galaxy is barely visible as a faint, red glow. This tells us that <strong>practically no new stars</strong> have formed in the companion galaxy -- which was either dust-poor to begin with or has been stripped -- but that the new stars have formed in the main spiral, and have formed in the same spiral pattern that we see in the visible!</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/m51_cxc_big.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27727" alt="Image credit: A. Wilson (University of Maryland) et al., CXC, NASA." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/m51_cxc_big-600x439.jpeg" width="600" height="439" /></a> Image credit: A. Wilson (University of Maryland) et al., CXC, NASA.
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<p>Even farther into the high-energy spectrum the X-ray data -- courtesy of <a href="http://cxc.harvard.edu/">Chandra</a> -- shows what are very likely two supermassive black holes at the center of each galaxy, spitting out intense X-rays, while lower-mass black holes are visible as point sources throughout! There are also more diffuse regions, which normally show off gas that's heated up intensely, so hot that it will emit <a href="http://ast.coe.berkeley.edu/sxreuv/">soft X-rays</a>.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_SPITZER_horiz.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27728" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Spitzer Space Telescope." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_SPITZER_horiz-600x378.jpg" width="600" height="378" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Spitzer Space Telescope.
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<p>On the other, cooler end of the electromagnetic spectrum, there's infrared light, which comes to us courtesy of the <a href="http://www.spitzer.caltech.edu/">Spitzer Space Telescope</a>. In the image above, the blue color represents cool, older stars, while the red represents warm dust. "Warm" is a relative word; the dust we see is very, very hot compared to intergalactic space, but is cool compared to say, a star. Much of the gas you're seeing here, however, is just slightly colder -- on a cosmic scale -- than room temperature, which means the red light shows you where the next generation of stars will be forming in this grand spiral.</p>
<p>And of course, in the visible light, there's a shot from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Messier51_sRGB.jpg">incomparable Hubble Space Telescope</a>.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/1280px-Messier51_sRGB.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27729" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Project (STScI / AURA)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/1280px-Messier51_sRGB-600x416.jpeg" width="600" height="416" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI / AURA).
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<p>There is, as is often the case, a <a href="http://www.spacetelescope.org/images/heic0506a/">behemoth version of the Hubble image</a>, which is actually not the first time that Hubble imaged this. Using an earlier camera pointed directly at the core of the spiral galaxy, Hubble was able to find a <a href="http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/1992/17/image/a/">pair of dust lanes at the center of this galaxy</a> back in 1992!</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_whirlpool_galaxy_black_hole.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27730" alt="Image credit: H. Ford (JHU/STScI), the Faint Object Spectrograph IDT, and NASA." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/M51_whirlpool_galaxy_black_hole-600x560.jpeg" width="600" height="560" /></a> Image credit: H. Ford (JHU/STScI), the Faint Object Spectrograph IDT, and NASA.
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<p>If we put these different wavelength images together -- X-ray, UV, visible, and IR -- we can see just what these different views <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_972.html">shown all at once</a> tell us! Below, Chandra's X-rays are depicted in purple, GALEX's UV are shown in blue, the Hubble picture of the optical lights up in green, while Spitzer's IR data is appears in red. The complete picture is staggering.</p>
<div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/205671main_image_972_946-710.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-27731" alt="Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/Wesleyan Univ./R. Kilgard; UV: NASA/JPL-Caltech; Optical: NASA/ESA/S. Beckwith & The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA); IR: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Az/R. Kennicutt." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/205671main_image_972_946-710-600x450.jpeg" width="600" height="450" /></a> Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/Wesleyan Univ./R. Kilgard; UV: NASA/JPL-Caltech; Optical: NASA/ESA/S. Beckwith & The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA); IR: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Az/R. Kennicutt.
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<p>And finally, for those of you who <em>need</em> a glimpse of the ultra-hi-res Hubble picture, here's just a tiny strip -- shown vertically, at full resolution -- of the interacting pair that makes up Messier 51! (And give it a sec; it's got to load!)</p>
<div style="width: 616px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/HubbleM51_strip.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-27732" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI / AURA)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/04/HubbleM51_strip.jpg" width="606" height="10814" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI / AURA).
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<p>That's the amazing story of the first Spiral Galaxy ever discovered, Messier 51, the Whirlpool Galaxy!</p>
<p>Including <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/04/15/messier-monday-the-whirlpool-galaxy-m51/">today</a>, we’ve taken a look at the following Messier objects:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/10/22/messier-monday-the-crab-nebula-m1/">M1, The Crab Nebula</a>: October 22, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/11/05/messier-monday-the-lagoon-nebula-m8/">M8, The Lagoon Nebula</a>: November 5, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/12/31/messier-monday-the-great-globular-cluster-in-hercules-m13/">M13, The Great Globular Cluster in Hercules</a>: December 31, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/11/12/messier-monday-an-ancient-globular-cluster-m15/">M15, An Ancient Globular Cluster</a>: November 12, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/04/08/messier-monday-a-dusty-open-cluster-for-everyone-m25/">M25, A Dusty Open Cluster for Everyone</a>: April 8, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/11/26/messier-monday-a-straggling-globular-cluster-m30/">M30, A Straggling Globular Cluster</a>: November 26, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/25/messier-monday-the-triangulum-galaxy-m33/">M33, The Triangulum Galaxy</a>: February 25, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/12/03/messier-monday-a-rich-open-star-cluster-m37/">M37, A Rich Open Star Cluster</a>: December 3, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/04/01/messier-monday-messiers-greatest-mistake-m40/">M40, Messier’s Greatest Mistake</a>: April 1, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/01/07/messier-monday-the-dog-stars-secret-neighbor-m41/">M41, The Dog Star’s Secret Neighbor</a>: January 7, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/12/24/messier-monday-the-beehive-cluster-praesepe-m44/">M44, The Beehive Cluster / Praesepe</a>: December 24, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/10/29/messier-monday-the-pleiades-m45/">M45, The Pleiades</a>: October 29, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/11/messier-monday-a-lost-and-found-star-cluster-m48/">M48, A Lost-and-Found Star Cluster</a>: February 11, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/04/15/messier-monday-the-whirlpool-galaxy-m51/">M51, The Whirlpool Galaxy</a>: April 15th, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/03/04/messier-monday-a-star-cluster-on-the-bubble-m52/">M52, A Star Cluster on the Bubble</a>: March 4, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/18/messier-monday-the-most-northern-galactic-globular-m53/">M53, The Most Northern Galactic Globular</a>: February 18, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/04/messier-monday-the-gateway-galaxy-to-virgo-m60/">M60, The Gateway Galaxy to Virgo</a>: February 4, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/03/25/messier-monday-the-first-messier-supernova-of-2013-m65/">M65, The First Messier Supernova of 2013</a>: March 25, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/01/14/messier-monday-messiers-oldest-open-cluster-m67/">M67, Messier’s Oldest Open Cluster</a>: January 14, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/03/18/messier-monday-a-diffuse-distant-globular-at-the-end-of-the-marathon-m72/">M72, A Diffuse, Distant Globular at the End-of-the-Marathon</a>: March 18, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/03/11/messier-monday-the-phantom-galaxy-at-the-beginning-of-the-marathon-m74/">M74, The Phantom Galaxy at the Beginning-of-the-Marathon</a>: March 11, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/12/10/messier-monday-a-reflection-nebula-m78/">M78, A Reflection Nebula</a>: December 10, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/11/19/messier-monday-bodes-galaxy-m81/">M81, Bode’s Galaxy</a>: November 19, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/01/21/messier-monday-the-southern-pinwheel-galaxy-m83/">M83, The Southern Pinwheel Galaxy</a>, January 21, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/01/28/messier-monday-the-owl-nebula-m97/">M97, The Owl Nebula</a>, January 28, 2013</li>
<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/12/17/messier-monday-a-great-galactic-controversy-m102/">M102, A Great Galactic Controversy</a>: December 17, 2012</li>
</ul>
<p>Come back next week, where we'll take a tour of another one of Messier's 110 deep-sky objects, only here on Starts With A Bang's <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/?s=messier+monday">Messier Monday</a>!</p>
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<span>Mon, 04/15/2013 - 12:50</span>
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<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/spiral-nebula" hreflang="en">spiral nebula</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/whirlpool" hreflang="en">Whirlpool</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/stars" hreflang="en">Stars</a></div>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I am loving these Messier galaxy articles! Thank you for all your work! I do have one question about this one, though. </p>
<p>"shows what are very likely two supermassive black holes at the center of each galaxy" - do you mean each galaxy has two black holes at its center? I only ask because (I'm a lay person totally) it seems to me the shapes of the galaxies might appear differently than they do, if there were two at each one's heart.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Terry (not verified)</span> on 16 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518879">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Terry,</p>
<p>I meant: "two supermassive black holes, <i>one</i> at the center of each galaxy". Sorry about that!</p>
<p>There are galaxies with two supermassive black holes at the center, and they are notable, interesting and amazing in their own right, like here: <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2011/04/05/fun-with-colliding-galaxies/">http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2011/04/05/fun-with-colliding-g…</a></p>
<p>But I should be more precise with my language. Thanks!</p>
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<em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 16 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518880">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow! The cosmos never ceases to amaze me! I really need to get myself a telescope and camera and learn how to photograph galaxies. I would love to some day show this stuff to my not-yet-two-year-old daughter, when she is older.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dandover (not verified)</span> on 16 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518881">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Get a cheap achromat f8-12/F700-900 on an equatorial mount with the scope having a 1/4" whitworth thread to put your camera on and you'll be sorted to start with minimal investment.</p>
<p>That would cost you ~$300 and last pretty much maintenance free for 10 years and will be decent enough for 50 (the high-transmission coatings will probably start going before 10 years, but they aren't essential).</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 16 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518882">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I have got the hubble image as a 1m wide printout on the wall of my bedroom.. when I get to sleep, i can dream of the stars looking at it :)</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Semmel (not verified)</span> on 16 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518883">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Too bad this is not part of the Local Group.<br />
Ethan, is there any possibility of using halo stars as gravitational lenses to get a close-up on the "central engine"/black hole at the whirlpool galaxy?</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Birger Johansson (not verified)</span> on 17 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518884">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Amazing. I love the history lesson too -- I followed the Caroline Herschel link and got lost in the Wikiverse for quite a while.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">JoeB (not verified)</span> on 17 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518885">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Re: Leviathan of Parsonstown</p>
<p>Yes indeed. The largest telescope in the world was once located in Co Offaly. And in fact if you go even futher back, the archelogical digs at Brú na Bóinne in Co Meath suggest that the whole area was some kind of neolithic astronomical complex, centered around observations of the equinoxes.</p>
<p>Which makes the current state of observatories in Ireland a bit of a dissapointment.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OMF (not verified)</span> on 18 Apr 2013 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1518886">#permalink</a></em>
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</section>
<ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2013/04/15/messier-monday-the-whirlpool-galaxy-m51%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul>Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:50:25 +0000esiegel35606 at https://scienceblogs.comHobbes on climate change
https://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/08/07/hobbes-on-climate-change
<span>Hobbes on climate change</span>
<div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-storm-part-2-the-color-purple.html"><img src="http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017617120eec970c-pi" width="400" align="right" /></a> Via <a href="http://hot-topic.co.nz/kerry-emanuel-the-role-of-reason/">HT</a> I find Kerry Emanuel saying:</p>
<blockquote><p>I think debate is good but we should be debating points that are actually debatable</p></blockquote>
<p>and who could disagree with that? But the problem is who gets to say what is debatable. You and I know, of course. But the wackoes don't [What is the Plural of "wacko"? Is it -oes or -os? And what about "Bozoes" - that looks wrong]. Or rather, it is impossible to distinguish from outside their heads the difference between "this is debatable" and "I'm going to force you to debate this if I can, either because it plays well or in order to avoid debating real issues" (compare <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/03/30/hobbes-again-and-400-ppm-co2/">For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it</a>).</p>
<p>The connection to Hobbes is that he argues, for example, that if you let someone "independent" interpret your laws, then that person or group is effectively sovereign; and therefore argues for all judges to be effectively the person of the sovereign, delegated (as I believe was the theory in England, but no more). With no-one wielding the civil sword to decide questions such as "what is debatable" there is no law in this area, no compact, and thus effectively a state of war. Which is exactly what we see.</p>
<p>[Updated: to include sea ice pic and link to Neven.]</p>
<h3>Refs</h3>
<p>* <a href="http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1990/11/23">Calvin and</a></p>
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<span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/stoat" lang="" about="/author/stoat" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">stoat</a></span>
<span>Tue, 08/07/2012 - 05:06</span>
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<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/climate-communication" hreflang="en">climate communication</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hobbes" hreflang="en">Hobbes</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/sea-ice" hreflang="en">sea ice</a></div>
<div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/leviathan" hreflang="en">Leviathan</a></div>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yaczxAC8840/TBzUh1vHJWI/AAAAAAAAL4g/ehrMG4GQfwA/s1600/I+Think+We're+All+Bozos+on+This+Bus.jpg">Bozos, not bozoes.</a></p>
<p>Same for whackos I think.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">dhogaza (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774794">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I tried to use "wackaloons" at Keith Kloor's once, he censored it. I was actually talking about pretty much this exact question. And there's a perfect example (with friends Pielke Jr. and Revkin) of somebody setting themselves up as judge of decorous debate with no or highly variable standards of rationality.</p>
<p>[I stopped commenting at KK's because he refused to redact gratuitous incivility directed at me. I'm surprised he redacts stuff directed against others; I thought he was at least consistent / honest. Keith? -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Arthur Smith (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774795">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I'm not sure that Hobbes is a good exemplar of a philosopher suitable for today's belief in independent thought. If you wish to invoke a consensus, stabilizing social mandate, one in which the harmony of the group is more important than truth or justice, go with Hobbes.</p>
<p>The better philosopher is William James, the American pragmatist. He would argue that all truth is temporary, that we can approach truth but never reach it, that usefulness is the key aspect of a truth. </p>
<p>James would say that skepticism is where all should be, even those who have taken a position. But only as long as on-going observation maintains the validity of the truth.</p>
<p>Which is not happening vis-a-vis the temperature rise vs the predictions, or that of sea-level or other ideas. The proof of the pudding is still undetermined, as the tasting, so far, hasn't been deep enough.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Doug Proctor (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774796">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>re: " But the problem is who gets to say what is debatable. You and I know, of course. But the wackoes don’t"</p>
<p>i.e. only high priests of the faith can decide since you believe yourselves infallible and don't grasp that perhaps someone may have spotted an error in your thinking that you don't think is debatable. Heretics should be silent and go away and not dare question you. I came to a site labelled a "science blog" and see instead childish rants from true believers that anyone dare question them.</p>
<p>[Oh darling, have I offended you and your fake email address? Do feel free to say something of substance, if you have anything to say. but attacking strawmen is pointless -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Critic (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774797">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>w(h)acko: w(h)acko(e)s<br />
bozo: bozos</p>
<p>Since a w(h)acko is mad/eccentric and bozo is stupid, despised or insignificant [SOED], IMHO you should be calling the septics bozos.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">P. Lewis (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774798">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Any particular views on the sea ice? This cyclone does suggest a different class of feedback from those I've thought about before. I was already conscious of "open water => more waves => better mixing => warmer water => faster melt", but this is more than that, something like "open water => warmer air => cyclonic winds => bigger waves => ...". Presumably one could easily devise or steal a measure for arctic cyclonic intensity and then look for trends?</p>
<p>[I think you can argue that thinner ice and open water leads to more mixing and hence less ice, which is a feedback, but may not be a strong one. I don't know how this storm will play out -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Nick Barnes (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774799">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Whackos, unless so gonzo as to elevate themselves to whackoi</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Russell (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774800">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I think whackii has a nice ring to it, and has the further attractiveness of being obviously incorrect.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">American Idiot (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774801">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Which is not happening vis-a-vis the temperature rise vs the predictions..." Yep, we've seen nothing but <a href="http://sks.to/escalator">declining</a> temperatures.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Brian Dodge (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774802">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"i.e. only high priests of the faith...."</p>
<p>Ah, another fine example of the Dunning - Kreuger effect, wherein a "True Believer" thinks that science is just another failed faith, like all the others that aren't his. Or that global warming is just as fictitious as the Free Market, since, as Karl Rove put it, "... when we act, we create our own reality."</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Brian Dodge (not verified)</span> on 07 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774803">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>thinner ice and open water leads to more mixing and hence less ice, which is a feedback, but may not be a strong one.</p></blockquote>
<p>Saw a neat comment the other day that this kind of severe storm churning bringing up warmer, saltier water to the surface with higher waves crashing over the ice is a bit like dumping salt on icy, snowy roads. The ice isn't usually subjected to that because the non-stormy, churned-up state is for the water surrounding the ice to be **less** salty than the ocean generally. </p>
<p>Could lead to more rapid ice melt. But we only need a few more days to see just how much damage such a storm can do at this stage of the season.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">adelady (not verified)</span> on 08 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774804">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The easy way to think about the cyclone is the same way as about heat waves, while there may be some additional forcing in that direction, it is sufficient that the ice pack was in a bad way to start with, so dice throwing insures that sooner or later something very bad will happen.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Eli Rabett (not verified)</span> on 08 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774805">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Dr. Connolley,<br />
While simulating low sea ice with a climate model, do you recall seeing a similar storm in the runs?</p>
<p>[No, but I wouldn't have. Firstly because the grid re in HadXM3 was about 300 km in the atmosphere, but mostly because I only ever looked at the climatology, never the day-to-day behaviour -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Phil Hays (not verified)</span> on 08 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774806">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I am afraid when I saw the title of your blog all I could think of was this:<br />
<a href="http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1990/11/23">http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1990/11/23</a></p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Nick Savage (not verified)</span> on 08 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774807">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>And when I saw the polar cyclone all I could think was that THEY have once again opened the great door at the North Pole:<br />
<a href="http://files.abovetopsecret.com/files/4f6f6d21b4ada86e.jpg">http://files.abovetopsecret.com/files/4f6f6d21b4ada86e.jpg</a></p>
<p>[It even has the "melting ice" on it -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Hank Roberts (not verified)</span> on 08 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774808">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wacki (m,p) I believe for the masculine form</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Terry (not verified)</span> on 09 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774809">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><a href="http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html">http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html</a></p>
<p>Still confident about your bets?</p>
<p>[I'm pretty sure the bets were in extent, not area, which isn't looking so bad (<a href="http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm">http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm</a>). But no, I'm not feeling at all confident -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crandles (not verified)</span> on 11 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774810">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>IJIS has been the most reluctant of 4 or 5 extent measures to show 2012 as the lowest on record. Our bets were using NSIDC<br />
<a href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png">http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeser…</a><br />
but the first one arranged on Neven's terms was I think IJIS. You had already got a graph of IJIS in the post and as the most reluctant that didn't seem to give a full impression of situation. Also area still looks better than extent for estimating extent minimums though that will change over the next few weeks. So it seemed worth adding a different graph to the one in the post to show what was going on.</p>
<p>IJIS is now using Windsat and is much more variable than when the bet was arranged i.e. it isn't the record we thought we were talking about when the bet was arranged. Is there merit in suggesting that if IJIS is the odd extent record out in saying whether there has been a new record or not, then we should go with the majority rather than IJIS?</p>
<p>Neven's Ice graphs page has extent graphs for NSIDC, IJIS, DMI, and Uni Bremen. (There is also Arctic Roos/NORSEX but that isn't currently updating.)</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crandles (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774811">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Heh, at least you can be somewhat more confident about our bet (£50 on September average extent to go below 2 million by end 2016).</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Peter Ellis (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774812">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Neven isn't keen on that suggestion. Suggesting instead AMSR2 reanalysis (which isn't available yet) in addition to the NSIDC monthly average extent. That seems fair enough as long as we don't have to wait too long for it.</p>
<p>[Bets are recorded at <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/05/10/sea-ice-part-2/">http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/05/10/sea-ice-part-2/</a> Yours and mine are all multi-year ones, so there is no need to sort them out yet -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crandles (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774813">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I believe William and I bet on NSIDC monthly minimum AND IJIS daily minimum (because only monthly minimum is boring) in either 2011, 2012 or 2013. </p>
<p>I learned this week via Bob Grumbine that the IJIS SIE thing will be reanalysed as soon as AMSR2 is done validating and calibrating. I would suggest we let those numbers decide the daily minimum, as AMSR2 is clearly a better product than WindSat.</p>
<p>How about it, WC?</p>
<p>[That was on IJIS I think, based on <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/05/10/sea-ice-part-2/">http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/05/10/sea-ice-part-2/</a> If there is an official product from them, then I think we use that. Hopefully they will do something sensible in time. If we can agree that they are doing something silly that affects the result, then, erm, we'll see -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Neven (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774814">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OK, so we wait until IJIS based on WindSat stes the daily minimum.</p>
<p>Then we await the NSIDC September minimum.</p>
<p>After that we wait for the AMSR2 reanalysis, because AMSR2 will be similar to AMSR-E.</p>
<p>And then you pay me € 50,00. </p>
<p>Sounds like great fun! ;-)</p>
<p>[You can spin out the torture... -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Neven (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774815">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Long term readers might remember that there was Arctic sea ice discussion under "Hobbes on climate change", and of course there are search engines. But perhaps this might be a good suggestion: Start a thread on this summer's sea ice.</p>
<p>[My excuse is that I really don't have anything new to say at this point. But I'll add the cat to this post -W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Phil Hays (not verified)</span> on 12 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774816">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>William, did you ever bet with WUWT's Smokey about standard deviations or some such?</p>
<p>[No. I tried to interest them but they wouldn't put up (or shut up, of course) - W]</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Neven (not verified)</span> on 13 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774817">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If you want us to spin out the torture, we could start copying Jim Petit's and others' similar post to this:</p>
<p>"With yesterday's drop in CT SIA of 111k km2, 2012 area has dropped to 2.986 million km2. Some stats:</p>
<p>•That's only the third time in the record area has been below 3 million km2 (2007 and 2011 were the others, of course).<br />
•It only took 138 days this year for area to fall below 3 million from this year's maximum. 2011 accomplished that feat in 169 days--one month longer--while 2007 needed 178 days, nearly six weeks more. Perhaps more astonishing, that 138 days is less time than it took most years that fell below 5 million km2 to reach that point from their individual maximums.<br />
•2012 SIA fell below 3 million km2 nine days ahead of 2007, and ten days ahead of 2011. 2012 area is currently 405k km2 ahead of 2011 on the same day, and 356k km2 ahead of 2007.<br />
•As others have noted, an area record is just 81,585 km2 away. Even if area were to see an additional decrease this year equivalent to only the lowest post-6191 drop on record--1997's 194k--2012 would still end up with just 2.793 million km2. At the other end of the scale, 1984's post-6191 drop of 1.113 million km2 would render a very far-fetched 1.874 million km2.<br />
•2012 SIA has now been in first place for the past 47 consecutive days--since June 30--and 63 out of the last 68.<br />
•2012's SIA anomaly has been below -2 million km2 for 14 consecutive days. That's 20% of the 70 days on record with an anomaly greater than -2 million. (The greatest anomaly so far this year ranked #20 on that list of 70; the 19 largest negative anomalies were all in October of 2007.)"</p>
<p>Uni Bremen extent record looks to already be broken but generally extent measures seem further from record than CT area discussed above.</p>
<p>If you don't want us to spin out the torture, I could always give you a way out like you just need to accept you were wrong and settle up. Did our 4 bets total £367 or £400 (I forget what was increased to £100 each)? An early settlement discount might bring that down to £250 provided settlement means it isn't reopenable.</p>
<p>Hmm. if I offer a way out, does that mean it isn't torture and I am free to carry on with the spinning it out? ;o) (Only kidding copying such minor/irrelevant points does look OTT. I should probably keep it to reporting when records used in the bets actually fall, but spinning it out is just such fun as Neven pointed out.)</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crandles (not verified)</span> on 16 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774818">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Off topic, but seeing what the IPCC rrpeot or the Copenhagen document actually say: this illustrates an unrelated point.In fifteen years, it will still be relatively easy to see the range and context of what scientists are saying now in any given area like sea ice; one can start with broad reviews like the IPCC rrpeot or review papers specific to a field; and if desired easily go to individual papers, and follow the citation trees to see how each paper was built on, adapted or ignored. But with so much of the sceptic corpus appearing in op/ed columns and a maze of blogs, it will be difficult to trace out what, if anything, is representative of sceptic opinions. It'll certainly be befuddling just how many of their ideas are mutually exclusive. It will be difficult to collect and assess any predictions sceptics have made. Will blog posts be preserved, archived and made searchable? Will comments be seen as being indicative of anything? We can tell which scientific publications are influential; how can we tell what blog posts are influential?Somebody should document and collect predictions made by sceptics, in one place. That, and instances like this where one month's data is taken badly out of context.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Artiom (not verified)</span> on 25 Aug 2012 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1774819">#permalink</a></em>
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<ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/stoat/2012/08/07/hobbes-on-climate-change%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul>Tue, 07 Aug 2012 09:06:33 +0000stoat53403 at https://scienceblogs.comHobbes again, and 400 ppm CO2
https://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/03/30/hobbes-again-and-400-ppm-co2
<span>Hobbes again, and 400 ppm CO2</span>
<div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I haven't been <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2008/05/in_praise_of_hobbes.php">nice to Hobbes</a> for a bit, so:</p>
<blockquote><p>When God speaketh to man, it must be either immediately or by mediation of another man, to whom He had formerly spoken by Himself immediately. How God speaketh to a man immediately may be understood by those well enough to whom He hath so spoken; but how the same should be understood by another is hard, if not impossible, to know. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it.</p></blockquote>
<p>There. Isn't that wonderful? It so beautifully turns around the "You say God told you that but I think you're a fraud" into "I really can't see how you could convince me of that". There is more, of course. [[<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_%28book%29">Leviathan (book)</a>]] provides an intro, and as it happens I wrote it (or almost all of it) and it has survived remarkably well. The section <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_%28book%29#Part_III:_Of_a_Christian_Common-wealth">Of a Christian Common-wealth</a> is good fun: here Hobbes tries to make a case for which books of the Bible you can reliably believe in, but (much like Popper on rationalism) is eventually obliged (oh dear, he really didn't want to go that way :-) to provide an external authority to decide which books can be trusted: the Civil Power in his case, of course.</p>
<p>Ah, and now of course I've remembered what I <i>actually</i> intended to write about: <a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Atmoz/~3/IGbNJcfd2Do/">Atmoz's 400 ppm CO2 challenge</a>! Off you go; I haven't made my mind up yet.</p>
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<span>Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:55</span>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>While Rome burns, Atmoz fiddles. Please allow me to invite you, William, and all others who see the necessity of energy transformation - and I include John Mashey, David B. Benson, Dano, Hank Roberts and Eli Rabbet in this group - to participate in Replacing Fossil Fuel. Enough dancing. It's time to act. Individually we tilt at windmills. People together can accomplish great things.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Paul Kelly (not verified)</span> on 30 Mar 2010 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1765142">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>>"Off you go; I haven't made my mind up yet."</p>
<p>Why not? as I wrote over there:<br />
There is probably only about 15 reasonable guesses so if the prize goes to the first to guess the correct month it looks like for this competition it may be best to get your guess in quick.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crandles (not verified)</span> on 02 Apr 2010 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-1765143">#permalink</a></em>
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<ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/stoat/2010/03/30/hobbes-again-and-400-ppm-co2%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 15:55:39 +0000stoat52993 at https://scienceblogs.comThe Politics of Human Nature: Thomas Hobbes
https://scienceblogs.com/primatediaries/2009/07/24/the-politics-of-human-nature-1
<span>The Politics of Human Nature: Thomas Hobbes</span>
<div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>English political philosopher Thomas Hobbes (1588 - 1679) is widely held as the "father of political science." His 1651 book <em>Leviathan</em> makes the case for why monarchy is the only political system that is consistent with human nature. He bases his argument on the following assumption about humans in "the state of nature" (what we would now call indigenous peoples):</p>
<p><img class="inset right" src="http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa144/Primate_bucket/569px-Thomas_Hobbes_portrait.jpg" width="200" /><br />
</p><blockquote>Let us return again to the state of nature, and consider men as if but even now sprung out of the earth, and suddenly, like mushrooms, come to full maturity without all kind of engagement to each other . . . Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of Warre, where every man is Enemy to every man; the same is consequent to the time, wherein men live without other security, than what their own strength, and their own invention shall furnish them withall. In such condition, there is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain; and consequently no Culture of the Earth; no Navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by Sea; no commodious Building; no Instruments of moving, and removing such things as require much force; no Knowledge of the face of the Earth; no account of Time; no Arts; no Letters; no Society; and which is worst of all, continuall feare, and danger of violent death; And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short.</blockquote>
<!--more--><p>Hobbes assumes that, without strong, centralized authority human beings will perpetually be at war with each other where "every man is Enemy to every man." Furthermore, he assumes there would be no art, no leisure, no ability to travel over water or create community building projects. Of course, Hobbes had never encountered an indigenous person before. In fact, he never travelled more than 100 miles from the island of his birth, so his understanding of how indigenous people behaved was informed by second hand accounts and his own imagination. </p>
<p>Hobbes was a strong supporter of King Charles I and wrote <em>Leviathan</em> in the midst of the English Civil War when his rule was seriously under threat. Hobbes used the language of the newly emerging scientific method (he was deeply influenced by Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei and English anatomist William Harvey) as a way to justify his political arguments. However, a logical argument, no matter how sound, is only as good as the assumptions that form it's foundational axiom. In this case, his assumptions about human nature. </p>
<p>Whatever else political scientists may find of value in the rest of <em>Leviathan</em>, the foundation for his argument about human nature is spectacularly wrong. Anthropologists have now shown that every point Hobbes claims about the state of nature in fact does exist in hunter-gatherer populations. Further, while violence and aggression exist, it is nowhere near the scale of modern industrialized societies. Unfortunately, this view of indigenous peoples living a life that is "solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short" is pervasive in the modern world. </p>
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<span>Fri, 07/24/2009 - 11:11</span>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Hobbes assumes that, without strong, centralized authority human beings will perpetually be at war with each other "</p>
<p>I found that a wonderful contrast to Orwell, who pretty much proposes the opposite: that humans will perpetually be at war *because* of strong centralized authorities.</p>
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<em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://madlabrat.blogspot.com/" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Lab Rat (not verified)</a> on 25 Jul 2009 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-2476383">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>consider men as if but even now sprung out of the earth, and suddenly, like mushrooms, come to full maturity without all kind of engagement to each other</p></blockquote>
<p>except of course that no humans --- nor even human societies --- ever popped into existence that way.</p>
<p>we're social animals; we naturally organize ourselves into groups. to some extent we can argue by analogy to other social animals on this point, perhaps most saliently chimpanzees. there's always strife, both within and between social groups, but it's never quite every individual for themselves; we'd be solitary, not social, were it so.</p>
<p>i'm not sure i can agree that hunter-gatherer societies have less violence and aggression than industrial societies, though. they have less capacity for mass warfare, true, but that's not likely to be the whole picture. conflict <i>between</i> societies --- organized warfare --- is not all there is to violence, and more organized societies can also produce formalized laws and law enforcement to curb internal violence and keep the peace within themselves. for most people at most times, that's the only kind of violence we really need to fear, and hunter-gatherers might be more at risk for it.</p>
<p>hm. Locke next Friday? or did you cover him some earlier week already?</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Nomen Nescio (not verified)</span> on 26 Jul 2009 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-2476384">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The comparison to indigenous tribes is very misleading, because that was not what Hobbes was talking about at all. The 'state of nature' is a situation of man prior to any type of social organization, which hypothetically precedes hunter gather societies. The argument is supposed to show that man is rational and that because he is rational he joins other humans to make a society which requires a set list of rules in order to function. The article is misrepresenting the philosophy of Hobbes.</p>
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<em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Arthur (not verified)</span> on 28 Jul 2009 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-2476385">#permalink</a></em>
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<div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Arthur: You are correct that Hobbes is using the hypothetical when he describes humans emerging "like mushrooms" without social connections. However, you are incorrect that this was not a basis for his understanding of indigenous people.</p>
<p>To quote one passage from the discussion in Lott's 2002 essay in <i><a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=jrmreU66N2wC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=hobbes+state+of+nature+anthropology&source=bl&ots=FdhffURSH8&sig=n6OO0WoMDNebcCzwui9d6R3y86g&hl=en&ei=wRFwSqXlA4KiswPPvt3HCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2">Philosophers on Race</a></i>:</p>
<blockquote><p>His reference to Native Americans as "savages" suggests a presocial paradigm of rugged individuals living outside of civil association. He sometimes employed the term "savage" to indicate a relationship between social dissolution and the presocial condition. That this "natural condition" lurks beneath the artificial bond of political obligation supplies the major thrust of his argument for absolute sovereignty.</p></blockquote>
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<em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/author/emjohnson" lang="" about="/author/emjohnson" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">emjohnson</a> on 28 Jul 2009 <a href="https://scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9684/feed#comment-2476386">#permalink</a></em>
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