I wrote earlier about McIntyre’s attack on the NAS Panel on temperature reconstructions. McIntyre objected to two panelists because they were co-authors of co-authors of Mann, but not to the panelist who was a co-author of a co-author of McKitrick. In another post he also objects to another panelist, Kurt Cuffey, because Cuffey wrote:
Mounting evidence has forced an end to any serious scientific debate on whether humans are causing global warming. This is an event of historical significance, but one obscured from public view by the arcane technical literature and the noise generated by perpetual partisans.
McIntyre claims that this demonstrates prejudice, but Cuffey does not include the Hockey Stick as one of the pieces of mounting evidence. The only thing that Cuffey writes about temperature reconstructions is this:
Reconstructions of past climates, on timescales of millennia to millions of years, demonstrate that small changes in climate influences (like greenhouse gases) cause significant climate changes. And the magnitude of the changes is in the mid- to high range of predictions from the best climate models (published October 2004).
Obviously he’s not referring to the Hockey Stick, which shows little change in temperature before the 20th century.
The conclusion in IPCC 2001 that human induced global warming was clearly evident was partly based on a depiction of the Northern Hemisphere temperature since 1000 A.D. This depiction showed little change until about 1850, then contains a sharp upward rise, suggesting that recent warming was dramatic and linked to human effects. Since IPCC 2001, two important papers have shown something else. Using a wider range of information from new sources these studies now indicate large temperature swings have been common in the past 1000 years and that temperatures warmer than today’s were common in 50-year periods about 1000 years ago. These studies suggest that the climate we see today is not unusual at all.
McIntyre, of course, makes no objection to Christy’s presence on the panel.
[Bloomfield] is cited in two pers. comms. in Briffa et al [Holocene 2002] where Briffa describes how they went about estimating confidence intervals for their MXD reconstruction – you know, the one where they chop off the period after 1960. Out of all the statisticians in the world, why would they pick one who consulted on confidence intervals for one of the Hockey Team studies?
Ummm, because he knows something about the statistics of reconstructions?
I’ve seen all this before. Back in 2001, John Lott made similarly specious attacks on the NAS panel on firearms research, claiming that it was biased. You see, there is nothing to lose in making such criticisms. If the panel comes down against you, you can dismiss their findings as biased (this is what Lott ended up doing). And if they come down on your side, you can present their findings with: “Even though they were biased against me …”
Update: John Fleck finds a coauthorship chain connecting McIntyre with Mann: McIntyre – McKitrick – Michaels – Christy – Pielke Senior – Mann. OK, Lambert – Stanton – Stinson – Erdos.