It’s the Arithmetic, Stupid (Part ii)

President Obama experienced a significant post-convention bounce. Already a little bit ahead, this places Obama more firmly ahead of Romney. But, the news would be so much more interesting if the two were much closer. How does one solve this problem if you are CNN? Make stuff up!

Yesterday CNN reported polls that showed Obama ahead of Romney by several points in key swing states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Then, according to Steve Singiser, “CNN’s Gregory Wallace, writing up the polls on the media outlet’s website, categorized Florida and Virginia as a tie. A tie.

Comments

  1. #1 lyle
    September 14, 2012

    Got to keep those eyes on the adds. Recall that is the major purpose of news organizations to get eyes on their adds all else is extra.

  2. #2 Last Hussar
    UK
    September 18, 2012

    Don’t look at polls. Look at Bookmakers. Polsters don’t lose money if they get it wrong. A bookie has to get it right to run his business.

    Current odds (18-19 Sept)
    Obama 100/30 On
    Romney 7/2

    For those unschooled
    If you put $10 on Obama winning you get $3 back (plus the $10 stake- a total of $13)
    $10 on Romney gets you $35 (+$10 stake)
    The less the payout, the more likely the bookie thinks it will happen.

    The bookies think Obama will win.

  3. #3 Last Hussar
    September 18, 2012

    (the ‘On’ means the odds are effectively reversed – if Obama was 100/30 then a $10 bet would win $33.33)

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