Surface temperatures are only one way to measure global warming, but it is a sort of standard and it is meaningful because surface temperatures have a lot to so with weather and such. Data for NASA’s GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius using a base period of 1951-1980 can be found HERE. Climate Communicator ThingsBreak put a graph on the internet based on those data for November. Here’s a copy of it:


Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Stefan Rahmstorf, creator of the graphic, used the SSAtrend smoother described in Moore, J. C., et al., 2005. New Tools for Analyzing Time Series Relationships and Trends. Eos. 86, 226,232. The filter half-width is 15 years. The results are similar to using LOESS or LOWESS. The raw data are, of course, in blue.


  1. #1 Peter Gleick
    December 14, 2013

    Greg, if I’m reading this right it is even more dramatic. This is the “anomaly” not the temperature, which means the deviation from the mean is growing, not just the actual temperature. Right?

  2. #2 Greg Laden
    December 14, 2013

    Both. That is an absolute anomaly, not a measure of variance, so it is the same as the temperature in C but where zero isn’t at 0 C. Also, since the baseline is post start of global warming, the below zero part isn’t cool.

  3. #3 CherryBombSim
    December 16, 2013

    I can’t believe you just said that below zero isn’t cool. I live away down south, and below zero is UNTHINKABLY cool.

  4. #4 Andrew Dodds
    December 16, 2013

    A few things that I have noticed over the past year or so.. (note: I live in the UK)

    – Since June, we have had relatively ‘normal’weather. For example, we actually got a summer this year.
    – In contrast to the past few years, it’s been mild. This morning it was 13 degrees (C).
    – Further afield, the Arctic has has a less-catastrophic-then-usual melt season.

    My wild guess (Hypothesis would be too grand a word) from this is that we could be returning to a pre-2006 state where we see a return to el-Nino conditions, with warming concentrated further south, a recovery/slower decline in Arctic sea ice.. and some serious new surface temperature records.

    Obviously I could be completely wrong..

  5. #5 Greg Laden
    December 16, 2013

    The arctic had a melt-down as worse as any of the post-arcti-is-melting-down era. The year before was EXCEPTIONAL AMONG THE EXCEPTIONAL. This does not give other years in which the Arctic sea ice melts exceptionally a pass! There is no evidence whatsoever of an Arctic recovery, unfortunately. That is entirely a meme made up by climate science denialists.

    There is however a reasonable chance of an El Nino this year though.

  6. […] mind that this November just past was the hottest ever in the GISS record, or that the HadCRUT3 warming trend is pretty glaring if your eyes are open. Look at […]