The Key for the above graphic:


Donald Trump’s FEMA is not ready for this storm. The entire federal government is understaffed, and there are funding problems, and this applies to FEMA as well.

So, if you are anywhere in the area to be affected by this storm (the weather channel calls it Stella, I call it Trump’s Storm One because it is the first big storm on his watch) you need to know that the usual help is not necessarily going to be available.

Maybe we should call it the Ides of March Storm.

A very large area will probably get a very large amount of snow. Keep up with your local NWS forecasts, which are still available and still useful. (Don’t expect that to be the case this time next year. Those reports and forecasts require funding that is being cut by the Trump Regime as we speak.)

Where will the storm hit hardest? Don’t assume anything, but Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and New England are in the main target zone. There will likely be some snow in Maryland, DC, and that area.

How much snow will fall? Anywhere from zero to about two feet, depending on where you are.

What is the most accurate forecast for this storm? This:

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 8.40.01 PM

I give you this highly accurate but not at all precise forecast with a bit of snark because I’m actually a bit tired of the bullshit that accompanies storms like this.

Remember, a couple of years ago, a big storm was predicted to hit much of New York and New England, with the possibility of significant snow in New York City? Hardly any snow fell in New York City. This caused the weather deniers (not just the climate change deniers, but the larger group of people who practice studied ignorance when it comes to weather) to insist that the blizzard had never happened.

This is what happened:


Yeah. This big giant storm came along, with the possibility that it could extend across The City, but it didn’t. So, that one little thing was different about the storm, and this caused all these people to go full apoplectic. Having had enough of that, see my forecast above. There is a whopping big storm coming, we really don’t know how big it will be or where it will drop the most snow or do the most damage. But …

  • there will be snow, some deep
  • there will be flooding somewhere on the coast
  • there will be big ass winds
  • there will be loss of visibility in blizzard zones, wherever they happen
  • power lines will go down
  • roads will close
  • various services and schools and such will close
  • If you are a long term denizen of the region from just outside of New York City all the way down east, you know what to do. If you live in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you may have to search your memory for a bad storm experience, but I’m sure you can think back to one. If you live along the coast down towards Washington, prepare yourself for one of those annoying snow storms that no one believes can happen but that in fact happen every year, under the currently changed climate. Might be time to start getting used to that!

    And yes, there is a climate change connection. More than one, actually. This is a Global Warming Enhanced Storm (GWES).

    Good luck everybody. Report in if you have an interesting story to tell! Also, drop the White House a line and ask them how they are doing staffing up FEMA.


    1. #1 Brainstorms
      March 13, 2017

      How about “The Cold Shoulder of Trump” storm?

    2. #2 Paul Hutchinson
      Blackstone River Valley MA
      March 13, 2017

      Currently NWS prediction for my area is 13″ to 24″ full range and most likely of 17″. Not too bad for this area but very unusual for March. I’ve already seen Robin’s and heard Canadian Geese migrating through the valley two weeks ago.

    3. #3 Eric Lund
      March 14, 2017

      I’m in the blizzard warning zone in New Hampshire, which is off the featured image map (that map only shows up to CT and RI). Latest forecast for my county is 18 to 24 inches, which is a lot but not the most I’ve seen in March–some years ago I shoveled 32 inches off my driveway, and a location about ten miles west reported 40 inches.

      On top of that, the second Tuesday in March is the usual day for municipal and school district elections in New Hampshire. My town is holding the election as scheduled. We won’t have official results from the school district election before Saturday, though, as the other two towns in the district postponed their elections.

    4. #4 Greg Laden
      March 14, 2017

      Plus it is going to take a while to clean the snow off the Oxen so they can deliver the ballots!

    5. #5 Greg Laden
      March 14, 2017

      I’ve updated the graphic above to include both northern and southern segments, and to have a recent version (plus a key)

    6. #6 Cal
      United States
      March 14, 2017

      I find things you write to be Orthodoxical to say the least. Since the beginning of time people within narrowed branches have said, this or that to monger a tear. If fear is what you are selling then kept pandering. Are you a Mongoloid? This would make since, because you place century old tactics and call them fact-lets. Well, I guess we always go back to the beginning on things when we begrudge divisional roots. Keep talking or rather writing, I find your logic very entertaining. Funny that we think we figured out infinity and now for decades we have been working on infinitude. At some point, the two have to come back to center. To be livid in the negative and not even know the sum of your own fear. To be a zero among any sum is a nation of one. Peace friend, God Bless

    7. #7 Brainstorms
      March 14, 2017

      What sort of dressing goes best with word salad?

    8. #8 BBD
      March 14, 2017

      Ferret urine.

    9. #9 Greg Laden
      March 14, 2017

      Cal: I know. I keep telling the NWS that, but they won’t listen. Thank god and Jesus Christ that Donald Trump is now president and can put an end to all that.

    10. #10 dean
      March 14, 2017

      The only Cal I’ve ever known to write something that stupid is the religious nutjob, racist, all around bigot, and co-founder of the moral majority Cal Thomas. I’ll assume #6 isn’t him because it doesn’t blame African Americans, Jewish people, or women, for the problems, as Thomas always did.

    11. #11 Redstart
      New York, USA
      March 14, 2017

      Greetings from Albany! It’s ~11:45 AM, and I’d say there’s about 11 inches on ground here so far; and the snowfall continues. Got my snowblower gassed up, and still have half a cord of hardwood behind the shed. Birds are glad I filled up feeders and suet cage. I just pray The Donald is safely ensconced at Mar-a-Lago and attending to important issues – like why The Apprentice had better ratings when he was on it.

    12. #12 Greg Laden
      March 14, 2017

      Redstart: My home town!

      Are you kidding me? 11 inches?

    13. #13 Redstart
      NY, USA
      March 14, 2017

      No…no joke at all. It’s gonna be a record breaker fer shur. They’re saying maybe 24 inches by tomorrow morning. BTW, really enjoyed your blog on “Reconnecting with an old friend….”. So, I knew you had roots here. If you’re ever in town, we should grab a beer. Lots in common to bS about.

    14. #14 Wow
      March 14, 2017

      “I find things you write to be Orthodoxical to say the least.”

      I find that the things you write have little to no meaning, but take a very long time to read. The above is a case in point.

      But a lot of moron faithiests think volubility is in itself persuasive.

      They are, however, mistaken.

    15. #15 Wow
      March 14, 2017

      “What sort of dressing goes best with word salad?”

      Dressing down.

    16. #16 Brainstorms
      March 14, 2017

      Redstart, Donald Trump is on the golf course at Mar-a-Lago, looking for the Russian hackers.

    17. #17 Redstart
      New York, USA
      March 14, 2017

      “….looking for the Russian hackers”.

      Or looking for the ball he lost after slicing into the azalea hedges.

      Just stuck a tape measure into middle of front yard at ~1:00 PM EST: 13 inches of snow. The red wing blackbirds & grackles have taken over the feeder.

    18. #18 Brainstorms
      March 14, 2017

      (Hint: He was following the technique of O.J. Simpson…)

    19. #19 Magma
      March 14, 2017

      “the larger group of people who practice studied ignorance when it comes to weather”

      The “studied ignorance” crowd doesn’t like to restrict themselves to any one field of knowledge. In my observation they prefer their ignorance loud, proud, broad, and deep.

    20. #20 Redstart
      NY, USA
      March 14, 2017

      At ~9:20 PM EST, my tape measure was showing close to 17 inches in my back yard. Wind’s up a bit, and snow still lightly falling. The NOAA web site is saying 3-5 new inches total for tonight (80% chance of precip); possibly 1-2 inches more tomorrow maybe.

    21. #21 Mike
      March 15, 2017

      Just woke up to two feet of snow on the ground.

      In Maine, it’s another day, another two feet of snow. Big deal.

    22. #22 Wow
      March 15, 2017

      “Or looking for the ball he lost after slicing into the azalea hedges.”

      And apparently then he picks up the ball from the rough and throws it back on the green.

      From golfers who played with Orangina Tiny Hands Tremendous Temper.

    23. #23 Kevin
      March 15, 2017

      “Donald Trump’s FEMA is not ready for this storm.”

      What has Trump done in these last 50 days to make FEMA unprepared? Or is it that Obobo the clown left Fema unprepared? The budget they are operating under is Obobo’s, so I guess it is his faqult.

    24. #24 Brainstorms
      March 15, 2017

      The budget they are operating under is Obama’s

      Which means that all the economic improvements we’ve been seeing lately are also credited to Obama. Ok.

    25. #25 Wow
      March 15, 2017

      “What has Trump done in these last 50 days to make FEMA unprepared?”

      Threw people out without replacing them, cut funding, find people who want to kill the department, and want to give the cash to companies, not FEMA.

      Among other things.

    26. #26 Greg Laden
      March 15, 2017

      Kevin, you should start watching news or reading newspapers or something.

    27. #27 dean
      United States
      March 15, 2017

      Kevin … reading newspapers…

      I think we can safely conclude from Kevin’s post that reading is not one of the things he’s mastered.

    28. #28 Brainstorms
      March 15, 2017

      Spelling ain’t either!

    29. #29 MikeN
      March 15, 2017

      The National Weather Service wanted to downgrade their estimate, but decided against it because people might think they didn’t have to prepare.

    30. #30 dean
      United States
      March 15, 2017

      The forecast was off along the I95 corridor because the core of the storm was closer to the coast than anticipated. That brought warmer air, sleet, and some rain into that area, lessening the amount of snow.

      On the other hand, snow amounts and predictions were essentially spot on in other regions.

      Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasts? Who would have thought? (Clearly not the denialists who jump on the usual uncertainty and attempt to blow it up – thinking is beyond them.)

    31. #31 Raucous Indignation
      Hudson Valley
      March 17, 2017

      We got a lot, a lot, a really lot of snow. Holy crap almighty it was a lot of snow.

    32. #32 Mal Adapted
      Somewhere on N+1 spectra of opinion
      March 18, 2017

      I was going to argue that #6 wasn’t “word salad”, because it didn’t look like schizophrenia or brain damage but more like a modestly-educated person with opinions not well grounded in facts, who is unaccustomed to addressing scientists directly and is trying to sound erudite. I suspected Cal had spent a fair amount of time choosing “Orthodoxical” and “begrudge divisional roots”.

      Then I looked up word salad, and it turns out the term may apply after all (my emphasis):

      “confused or unintelligible mixture of seemingly random words and phrases”, most often used to describe a symptom of a neurological or mental disorder. The words may or may not be grammatically correct, but are semantically confused to the point that the listener cannot extract any meaning from them. The term is often used in psychiatry as well as in theoretical linguistics to describe a type of grammatical acceptability judgment by native speakers, and in computer programming to describe textual randomization.

      Interesting, no? So, it’s possible Cal is a ‘bot for testing our grammatical acceptability judgement. On current evidence, though, I’m going with my first evaluation: Trump voter trying to talk like he thinks a scientist would talk.

    33. #33 Wow
      March 18, 2017

      Word salad is an idiot trying to use big words incorrectly to appear smart.