It has just now sunk in that I'm holding plane tickets that I'll be using next week to fly to … San Diego.
I hope for everyone's sakes that all is under control well before I get there … but isn't it just like a bunch of infidels to schedule a meeting for the middle of an inferno?
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Well, I don't know the particulars of why you're going, but my advice is: Don't bother. If that's an option, you may want to think it over.
We've sent firefighters from 500 miles away, in Sacramento.
Let someone who really NEEDS a hotel room right about now have yours.
Let someone who really NEEDS a hotel room right about now have yours.
that's an excellent suggestion and bit of foresight, MikeM.
at last count, over a thousand homes are either burned to the ground or near so.
far more are inaccessible at the moment.
...which leaves thousands of people effectively homeless. It's not much of a stretch to think that hotels would be put upon to provide temporary lodging.
We know -- I was just talking to the conference organizer this afternoon, and he mentioned that people in need get first priority. We're keeping an eye on it.
Of course, we're talking about a relatively small meeting. Did you know the Society for Neuroscience descends on San Diego on 3 November? Something like 20,000 people are scheduled to show up end of next week.
I live in So Cal, and over the last few years, it seems like the state is literally burning to the ground.
massive increase in size and number of destructive wildfires over the last ten years.
third time in 5 years that the Governor has had to declare a state of emergency because of them.
part of it is due to the massive tree die-offs because of bark-beetle infestations (the increase in numbers of bark-beetles has been tied, though I'm not sure how conclusively, to decreasing overwinter dieoffs because of global warming, btw). Top that with a multi-year drought situation, and massive increases in unrestricted housing developments in areas considered to be fire-prone, and I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising. Still, I can't recall a period within the last 40 years that had this many destructive wildfires over a relatively short time period.
On the positive side, the lessons of Katrina evidently have not fallen on deaf ears with the politicos in CA. There have been massive efforts to make sure those displaced have places to go, resources available to them, etc.
Only dealing with thousands instead of tens of thousands, but the response at least seems better structured.
...I should add that while thousands have been DIRECTLY affected, hundreds of thousands have been at least temporarily evacuated.
last count something like 360 thousand or so.
The truth is coming, the true history of the bible here!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uM71UqbrNc0
We're sitting here in the middle of it and can't go anywhere due to freeway closures. It's stinky, windy, eye-irritating weather. No immediate danger of evacuation so far; I guess we'd have to go to Vegas since everyone else I know is in the same boat we are.
Someone once told me that we have three seasons here in SoCal: Green, Brown and Black. Welcome to Black season...
I am in San Diego, and things are rather chaotic. Somewhere around 300,000 to 500,000 people have been displaced (evacuated) to avoid the fires. I have the most valuable 5% of my stuff ready to throw into the car and truck if called by the reverse 911 system. Having trouble breathing, the smoke is playing merry hell with my asthma. I'm supposed to cook a banquet for 80 on Saturday, but can't shop, and the church we are to use is an evacuation center. Hope things clear up in time for your meeting, PZ. If there is a meetup, I'd like the opportunity to be there.
PZ your experience will depend on where the meeting is. The fires are spotty and many areas in the county are just fine. Personally, I'm up in Carlsbad and there's no fire here. It looks like downtown SD is fine too. This map may be helpful in tracking the perimeters of the fires:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?uid=103734099241550080511&hl=en&gl=us&pt…
Satellite photo of the fires:
http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/images/2007-10-22_2057-2102_HSDO_010403_QKM.jpg
I'm going to the Society for Neuroscience conference! Or at least I hope I am. And I think it's going to be more like 30,000 people (there have been over 16,000 abstracts accepted, I know that).
Whoa.
I'm in Irvine and my sinuses are dying from breathing smoke for the last couple of days, but there doesnt seem to be anywhere to drive to to get fresh air unless I go to like arizona or something. Can't go to los angeles area, san diego, riverside. And my parents have been evacuated from their home.
It sucks that homes are being lost this time, but I think the CDF does a pretty good preventative job considering we have huge fires every year and usually nothing happens. The state does put effort at preventing this sort of disaster
Oh, and assuming it goes ahead, I'd like to come to the meetup too! Whatever it is. :-)
If you make it, go to Carlsbad. It's pretty much the only safe place in the county. Oh, and I'm there.
You better check your hotel reservation. You're better off staying at a friend's place. Also check your car rental.
I'm in Northwood in Irvine and it was a close thing lemme tell ya and it still isn't over if the wind shifts. At least if it does, there's much less fuel for the fire for the OC fire.
Yeah, I'm going to Society for Neuroscience also. I wonder if they'll move it to another city? It's still two weeks away, but there's no sign of this fire dying down. Adding 25-35000 people would probably not be a good idea.
I do have some free time at the end of the conference -- it's done at 2, my plane leaves around 7 -- so maybe we can work out some kind of meetup in La Jolla. The whole situation out there is so unsettled that it's a bit difficult to make plans right now, though.
I thought it was Drought Flood Fire & Earthquake (with the occasional hurricane & killing freeze).
Or yes: 5 foot visibility fog in the central valley.
But then I live in Ohio.
Please, PZ, do consider relocating your conference (I imagine the Neuroscientists will ultimately end up doing the same). As I speak, 500K people have been evacuated and 1250 homes have been burned, just in San Diego county. Overall evacuations 950K people. Winds are NOT dying down in San Diego county. Updated numbers are due around 6pm (PDT). The fire has also damaged major power transmission lines or has caused them to be shut down to protect fire crews.
Weather to get better - lower temps/higher humidity and 10% chance of rain on Saturday. You can get updated info at knbc.com.
Next week will be awful there as people try to deal with this incredible disaster.
If the Santa Ana winds and temperatures haven't died down by next week, we're all in trouble here in socal... Hopefully we're in cleanup mode by the time PZ is getting drunk in SD and no one's taking emergency shelter from anyone.
Interesting that Glenn Beck thinks a handful of people hate America and a lot of them are losing their homes in these fires. He was probably thinking of someone HE hates in Malibu, not my republican friends in Santiago Canyon in OC or all the republicans in San Diego forced to flee. We're pretty right wing here in south OC and north and east SD... dumbass
Since Global Warming and the Internet were both invented by Al Gore I guess we don't have to plan for a continued drought, lack of snowfall leading to less mountain runoff leading to less water for the Southwest leading to more fires leading to...
That stupid fuck. San Diego is one of the most conservative areas on the west coast.
As another Southern Californian, I urge you to call the conference organizers ASAP and develop a backup plan. The Witch and Harris fires look to be turning into real firestorms, cutting both the I-15 and likely the I-5. The next 48 hours or so are likely to be utterly devastating.
here is a Monday map of the fires, from the LA Times. La Jolla is more or less just to the left of the "San" in "San Diego" in the lower left-hand corner.
Hope to meet you in person at a future visit. But now's not a real good times.
Cheers,
A couple of years ago the Ent Soc meeting was in Fort Lauderdale, FL. It was postponed two months because of the hurricane that essentially wrecked most of the hotel rooms.
Guess where the Ent Soc meeting is this year?
San Diego (it's in December though, so all should be well by then... unless this is really the end times). But don't doubt that professional meetings can be rescheduled due to natural disasters (or... ya know... the apocalyse.)
When the networks send their news anchors to a place, you know it's big. :)
I'm watching ABC's national news, and as I type (6:07pm) they're covering the situation at Qualcom Stadium. Big contrast with New Orlean's Superdome in 2005. This time around authorities are enlisting people to help out, so avoiding the problems inherent in boredom and feeling helpless. It helps that the authorities are dealing with people inured with a can-do attitude, rather than a population brainwashed into thinking they can't do for themselves.
Right now downtown San Diego is clear, with smoke to the south and no sign of flames anywhere. Traffic is light on the other hand, what with most people staying home, staying with friends or at a hotel, or fighting the fires. We're hoping the Santana breaks up by Friday at the latest, but it might last even longer. Keep an eye on those Google Maps linked to above, and visit the San Diego Union-Tribune home page for updates.
Good luck to anyone living out there...
Anyroad, is there a larger version of the picture used in the post?
It helps that the authorities are dealing with people inured with a can-do attitude, rather than a population brainwashed into thinking they can't do for themselves
I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here... so I'm just going to assume the best, that "inured with a can-do attitude" means "allowed to help themselves," and "brainwashed into thinking they can't do for themselves" means "afraid of being shot by the police."
Basically, what's helping is that the residents of San Diego are in general a lot whiter and richer than blacker and poorer.
btw, there are several other fires running rampant north of San Diego too. I figured I might as well add this to the thread, since there might be some chance others are looking for specific info.
Here is a good place to get updates on the mountain areas, from locals running around emailing a local bulletin board:
http://rimoftheworld.net/
an employee for the water district up there (Running Springs) said this:
Hmmm...PZ, if you do come to San Diego, are you interested in giving a talk at Scripps Institution of Oceanography? We've got a bunch of people interested in science communication who could learn a lot from you. Or, if you'll be talked out, we could also offer space for a general SD meetup before your flight. (All this assuming that SIO and San Diego are more than teeny little bits of ash.)
My apartment isn't on fire yet, and it's only an hour north of SD. You can crash on my couch!
Seriously, I agree with all those saying don't go to San Diego right now if it's not going to disastrously screw up your career or something to skip the trip. I've got a lot of friends down there still from when I lived there, and they're all saying the same thing: it's a mess and it doesn't look to be getting better any time soon.
I just got off the phone with my girlfriend, and her parents in San Diego just got the voluntary evacuation call. It's scary down there right now. I don't recommend it.
Also...
I think it's worth pre-empting the inevitable God rhetoric that's due to begin any minute now about the fires. And it's also worth pre-empting the myth that more powerful, militarized government is the solution to dealing with crises like this. Really, the two myths are the same - an unfounded belief in a constructed hierarchy, based on the notion that we can't solve our problems as human beings. Since people are stuck with outside agencies rather than their own organization to help, I do hope the government response is strong and competent - but also that it is limited to providing service, rather than "control" - the code word for the covert and overt violence that was employed on poor people post-Katrina and post- many other recent disasters.
Already, neighborhoods are being patrolled/occupied by troops with machine guns - really necessary to convince people to stay away from fire? The point is to amp up the fear - a refresher in the Shock Doctrine seems to be in order.
I wouldn't recommend coming out here for a while. I live here, and I don't want to be here. And I'm in a relatively safe area roughly about 20 miles from the nearest blaze.
I'm guessing it will be declared a Federal Disaster Area within the next week, which would really put the kibbosh on having major conferences there. I just can't imagine trying to have people come in to a place like that for a scientific meeting - there are things that are a lot more important. My guess is a rescheduling of the meetings, or that's what ought to happen, at least.
I'm guessing it will be declared a Federal Disaster Area within the next week,
too late, already has been.
The organizer for this meeting is living right there in San Diego, so don't worry -- I will obey whatever he says. Let's all pray to the sky gods that it rains furiously this weekend, and to the fire gods that they are content with the sacrifice so far, and to the love goddesses that they'll go distract the fire gods, and to the beer gods that they'll open the big vats and give all the gods reason to pee over the edge of the clouds over SoCal, and while you're at it, pray to the dead god Howard Hughes that he will sway his institute to award UMM that grant we just applied for.
Miriam -- I'd love to meet with the Scripps people, and maybe do something informal. Again, I'm just a litle reluctant to make too many plans right now, since everything could change in the next few days.
Oh, yeah, and pray to all the gods that the UMM Cougars beat Maranatha Baptist at the Metrodome on Friday. Shaving the point spread on sports competitions seems to be all the gods can accomplish, anyway.
Shaving the point spread on sports competitions seems to be all the gods can accomplish, anyway.
thousands of compulsive gamblers would probably disagree.
(but they're all going to hell, anyway, so who cares.)
:p
I'm also going to SfN! Assuming the convention center doesn't become a refugee camp. Please announce any Pharyngulite meet-up...
I've been stuck inside for the past two days because of this.
Talking with relatives (Orange County) and friends (San Diego) today... The San Diego friends were evacuated.
I know it's not as bad as Katrina and can end at any moment, but the reality is, you wouldn't have visited New Orleans 2 weeks after Katrina. This is different; it's at a house.
Basically, if you don't mind smoke, you would probably be okay, but our SD friends got WAY out of Dodge (to LA and to SF). Seems prudent, if you ask me.
That NASA photo is pretty awe-inspiring.
The really weird part of this is that in Norcal, it is just beautiful. 83 in Sac today. Very light breeze. Not a cloud in site. Without a TV and a phone, we'd never know that our friends are 6 miles away from the main line. That's scary.
You turn off the water, the gas and the electricity, and hope you still have your house. Repeat 310,000 times.
It just isn't funny.
By the way, the San Diego Convention Center has issued a statement saying it's business as usual (so far) for upcoming events.
It's hard to say with the SfN meeting whether it's more expensive to have it or not to have it. I guess there is at the very least likely to be some drama with hotel reservations.
New Orleans, now San Diego... these cities are clearly being divinely picked off one by one for hosting the largest scientific conference in the world. I can't help noticing that His timing is getting better. My guess is He'll nail D.C. during the conference next year.
So I am flipping channels today and hear Glenn Beck go on about how the forest fires are divine intervention, and my partner tells me about how yesterday he said that the fires were taking away the homes of godless liberal America haters, and then I remembered how yesterday he had said THIS............
BECK: All right. Here it is. I was driving in today, and I`m seeing these forest fires, or listening on the radio, these forest fires. And I`m like, "Hmm, droughts, floods, forest fires, natural disasters, plagues"...
D`SOUZA: I see where you`re going.
BECK: ..."wars, rumors of wars, I`ve read this all someplace before." Does any of that play any role with anyone starting to find, you know, religion?
D`SOUZA: I`m not a defender of fundamentalism. My book defends traditional Christianity. And in traditional Christianity, you don`t draw wild theological inferences, but you do look for reasonable and legitimate signs. So, for example, the formation of the state of Israel in 1948 foretold repeatedly in scripture, I think most Christians, mainstream Christians, would agree is a biblically significant event. But I don`t think we can ascribe divine intention to a forest fire.
BECK: No, no, no. No, no, no, I wasn`t asking that. I was asking, on the people themselves, do you think that there is any kind of growth at all from Christianity because people are starting -- some people are starting to say, "Wait a minute, this all looks familiar. Maybe I should look in that book again"?
D`SOUZA: Well, I do think that people are recognizing that actions have consequences, and there`s a certain moral accountability to life. Religion provides a kind of basis for that. That`s the point of "What`s So Great About Christianity?"
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0710/22/gb.01.html
............................
And I remembered that the reason that I really dislike him is because he is so patently absurd- which is why I watch him for small moments for comic relief. (not so funny when I think that people actually agree with him) And I just thought this might fit here.
So glad to see that FEMA is offering its services to California.
Mad mad world.
This is just horrible...
I know the area pretty well, particularly around Poway and Rancho Bernardo. I just can't even begin to imagine what it must be like to be living there right now.
I think it would be wise to assume any conferences planned for the next month or so in SD are cancelled. It's going to be pandemonium with all of the displaced people for quite some time.
D`SOUZA: Well, I do think that people are recognizing that actions have consequences, and there`s a certain moral accountability to life. Religion provides a kind of basis for that. That`s the point of "What`s So Great About Christianity?"
that's some seriously fucked up circular reasoning right there.
The American Society of Human Genetics conference is here right now, and all going according to plan.
But I second all the recommendations to stay in Morris. I'm certainly getting out of La Jolla.
why is it that all the places GW Bush hates seem to have unfortunate disasters. Someone check his head for a tatoo in the shape of 666.
A third city is being destroyed on his watch.
Worst president ever.
Regarding: D`SOUZA: Well, I do think that people are recognizing that actions have consequences, and there`s a certain moral accountability to life. Religion provides a kind of basis for that. That`s the point of "What`s So Great About Christianity?"
Ichthyic commented
I'll second that statement. Hopefully someone will point out to D'Sousa that one can arrive at the same conclusion ("actions have consequences") by the fact that life continues to exist ala Darwinian theory.
Ah well, it looks like the folks who deny global climate change get to live through a now accelerated aspect of it. Maybe that will help some adjust to the concept of "moral accountability to life".
Although it looks like the warming is being positioned as an "opportunity" to pillage and fight over new resources that push the inevitable out to a later date. My bet is that religion will provide some sort of basis for doing this. On a purely "moral" basis, of course.
On a purely "moral" basis, of course.
oh, of course.
:p
say... since Falwell claimed he could control the direction of hurricanes (he could "pray them away"), who is going to claim the mantle of being able to control wildfires?
well, actually the hurricane control issue is open again as well.
I mean seriously, claiming to be able to control natural disasters has got to have some serious marketing value to some enterprising up and coming evangelical out there.
It's really awful what's happening there. I hope the conditions change soon, so the firefighters can get some traction against it.
Speaking of crypto-wingnut CNN anchors (or maybe not so crypto) weighing in on the disaster, I do so wish I had a capture of the intro to the "Situation Room" today.
Wolf Blitzer was in front of a green screen showing nothing but red flames leaping high on a black background. The effect was quite lurid, especially with Blitzer standing in front.
I wish I had a capture of it, because that "Wolf Blitzer in Hell" wallpaper on my monitor would cheer my workspace right up.
the news guy in lake hodges (north of san diego, being victimized by the Witch Creek fire) says conditions are wonderful...cool, windless, lots of fire engines. some of the cool funky little villages have been consumed, sadly. lake hodges is a bit north and west of me right this minute.
after fleeing on monday morning (stayed up all night watching the glow out my back window) i came home tonight. couldn't stay away any more...
Wasn't (isn't) Robertson the self-styled hurricane-whisperer?
Why worry about this fire being possibly helped out by global warming when it is so much easier to say the big sky daddy is pissed at loose morals. And I was just listening to the Dawkins/Lennox in which Lennox claims that christianity does not place a limit on knowledge. sigh...
When you get down to it, it is not far removed from Robertson blaming atheist, gays and so forth for September 11.
I'm also scheduled to head for the SfN conference next week. If those fires end quickly it'd be fun to meet some of the people from this site.
There is a very recent precedent for canceling a large scientific meeting at the last minute: the 2003 American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) meeting in Toronto (16,000 attendees) was canceled during the SARS episode. Since many docs attending treat immunosuppressed cancer patients, some institutions were forbidding attendance and hotel cancellations mounted. The meeting was rescheduled for July 2004 in DC but there were fierce legal battles between Toronto and the AACR for the CDN$6.2 million lost by hotels. AACR had cancellation insurance from AON but still required NCI to provide a controversial payment of several million dollars to cover other costs.
My wife and I have tickets to Orange, CA to stay with her uncle in about 3 weeks. He's on vacation in Utah right now and according to his e-mail isn't sure if his house still exists or not. The Santiago fire is right in the area where he lives. We're keeping our fingers crossed. At least he's safe.
Is there a larger version of the photo?
By next week, it may have settled a bit. It also may benefit San Diego to have some influx of out of state money visit us and some semblance of trying to return to normal. Not much consolation for those who have lost their homes or loved ones but for it would be good for the region.
And I would like to know if there is a meet up planned at all....
Speaking as someone who lost his job and was forced to leave New Orleans due to Katrina, I am filled with schadenfreude. My immediate reaction is: "How stupid are these people to live in an area that always catches on fire? What did they THINK was going to happen? They better not spend a penny of my tax money on these idiots. They can all burn for all I care."
Of course I don't really feel this way. But I have a lot of pent-up anger from hearing people blame New Orleanians for Katrina.
It would have helped if the irresponsible citizens of San Diego had voted to increase funding for their fire departments after the 2003 fires, but the republican leaning county turned it down. They live in an area prone to bad fires and spend less per capita on firefighting then any other major US city.
:-o
The stupid oxide! It stinks!
Hey, boys, haven't you heard? Big Government Is Bad! Taxation is Forced Redistribution of Wealth! I'm quite sure The Market would have supplied Firefighters (you know, like in old New York) if not for those evil socialists who insisted, all those years ago, that public safety could best be provided by the public sector.
As someone living in socal, I'm not sure cancelling conferences is really necessary. Yes tons of people are getting evacuated but when the fires are under control they'll be going back to their homes. Evacuated doesnt mean completely destroyed and displaced for the next few months. A thousand homes have gone down and those people do indeed need prolonged help, but I'm not sure cancelling business would do much other than hurt the local economy more as a result of the disaster. But people who suffer asthma and other respiratory ailments, yes they should rethink coming to visit.
I guess it depends on how long they'll need people to stay off the roads and out of the way of emergency vehicles.
Hurricane?? Nah. We had a few little tornadoes a couple of winters ago, but the hurricanes are mainly on the other side of Mexico. We get a few tropical depressions on the Pacific side, but we're gosh darn lucky to get even a little rain out of those. Last January's freeze was pretty anomalous as well.
As for floods, the sewer systems can get a bit backed up during an El Nino, but we haven't had one of those for at least 10 years. The worst I've seen is the occasional intersection knee deep in water. Any "flood" rescues that make national coverage from the SoCal area are people doing stupid stuff in places they shouldn't be like river channels, storm drains and emergency flood control areas.
Earthquakes don't have a season as they can't be predicted (yet.) Since we have pretty good building codes, most of them aren't a big deal and are way more survivable than tornadoes and hurricanes, in any case, unless you like to live/work in unreinforced masonry structures.
Droughts and fires are by far the most common natural 'disasters' we deal with. The only reason they're classed as disasters is because of the high concentrations of humans that choose to live here.
Hi Karey and Phil. I live in Irvine myself. I had no idea that so many Pharyngula fans lived in Orange County. If any OC residents here are non-theists, you might enjoy coming down to a dinner with the Orange County Atheists (www.ocatheists.com).
:-o
The stupid oxide! It stinks!