“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.” -Richard Feynman
Like many suggestive signals in the past, the 750 GeV bump in the diphoton channel has turned out to be a mere phantasm: an unlikely statistical fluctuation that simply disappeared as more data was collected. While almost the entire particle physics community was hoping for a different outcome, this is apparently the Universe we were dealt.
But anyone familiar with the history of particle physics shouldn’t be surprised by this result, as “there’s only a 1-in-3,000 chance this is a fluke” means there’s a *very good* chance that it is, in fact, a fluke. When you flip a coin ten times and get ten heads in a row, you worry that something is wrong. but when you flip a coin a thousand times and get ten heads in a row, you don’t.