I’ve realised that I’ve been dismissing a load of nonsense merely on the grounds that its discussing short trem trends, without troubling to look at those trends. But everyone else is talking about them, so why shouldn’t I?
So Anyway, Lucia says that trends since 2001 are negative, based on a fitting procedure no-one has ever heard of. John V says they are positive.
Looking at the yearly numbers from 2001, they look positive. Ditto from the graph.
So I’m rather confused as to where this whole “temperatures are falling this century” meme comes from. Has anyone bothered to try to sort this out? Someone must have blogged this… please point me to where.
[Update. Perhaps I’ve conflated the wackos “no warming this century” with Lucia and Taminos “since 2001”. It probably makes a difference whether you include 2001 or not (as my commentors point out). The obvious point then is that if whether you use an individual year or not, or the first 2 months of 2008 or not, strongly affects your trend, then… your data series is too short -W]