Barack Obama for President?

Says Seed. CIP said that a while ago, but less politely. I’d prefer Obama, but I don’t have a vote. Looks like the money is on Obama: 1-9 on, whereas McCain is 5-1.

[Updates: Eli notes that Nature is endorsing Obama. C provides us with a wider choice of odds, and InTrade has him as a near-cert. But can you trust it?]

Comments

  1. #1 crandles
    2008/10/31

    Tom Adams wrote

    “Mccain has consistently traded higher at Intrade than in other futures markets, due to the activities of a single “institutional” trader, a trader who is obviously not seeking out the cheapest trades by using all available markets:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html?ref=business

    I can confirm there was a 10% difference between betfair and intrade, I grabbed some (though a shame I had put too much in before the gap grew to 10%). The gap did briefly disappear but now when writing the difference is 11.1% to 11.6% on betfair compared to 16.6% to 16.9% on Intrade.

  2. #2 crandles
    2008/10/31

    http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/to-be-elected-president

    It does seem as if it is intrade that is out of line. You can get better odds than at paddypower.

  3. #3 Eli Rabett
    2008/10/31

    Anyone who wants to publish in Nature has to back Obama

  4. #4 crandles
    2008/10/31

    >”InTrade has him as a near-cert”.

    Is this a spot the deliberate error thing? Intrade has Obama at 84.7% while betfair has close to 89%. I find it surprising that the difference is so persistant rather than arbitrage eliminating the difference.

  5. #5 TrueSceptic
    2008/11/03

    I don’t know about the odds but the polls suggest a landslide.
    < http://www.electoral-vote.com/>
    Obama 353, McCain 185.

  6. #6 TrueSceptic
    2008/11/03

    I see that my link disappeared. Again, http://www.electoral-vote.com/

  7. #7 P. Lewis
    2008/11/05

    Well done USA (we hope)!

  8. #8 Magnus Westerstrand
    2008/11/05

    Yes we can! ;)

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