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Says Seed. CIP said that a while ago, but less politely. I’d prefer Obama, but I don’t have a vote. Looks like the money is on Obama: 1-9 on, whereas McCain is 5-1.
[Updates: Eli notes that Nature is endorsing Obama. C provides us with a wider choice of odds, and InTrade has him as a near-cert. But can you trust it?]
Tom Adams wrote
“Mccain has consistently traded higher at Intrade than in other futures markets, due to the activities of a single “institutional” trader, a trader who is obviously not seeking out the cheapest trades by using all available markets:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html?ref=business
”
I can confirm there was a 10% difference between betfair and intrade, I grabbed some (though a shame I had put too much in before the gap grew to 10%). The gap did briefly disappear but now when writing the difference is 11.1% to 11.6% on betfair compared to 16.6% to 16.9% on Intrade.
It does seem as if it is intrade that is out of line. You can get better odds than at paddypower.
Anyone who wants to publish in Nature has to back Obama
>”InTrade has him as a near-cert”.
Is this a spot the deliberate error thing? Intrade has Obama at 84.7% while betfair has close to 89%. I find it surprising that the difference is so persistant rather than arbitrage eliminating the difference.
I don’t know about the odds but the polls suggest a landslide.
< http://www.electoral-vote.com/>
Obama 353, McCain 185.
I see that my link disappeared. Again, http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Well done USA (we hope)!
Yes we can! ;)
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