Says Seed. CIP said that a while ago, but less politely. I'd prefer Obama, but I don't have a vote. Looks like the money is on Obama: 1-9 on, whereas McCain is 5-1.
[Updates: Eli notes that Nature is endorsing Obama. C provides us with a wider choice of odds, and InTrade has him as a near-cert. But can you trust it?]
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This election day post is going to be continuously updated until the winner becomes more-or-less official. Tomorrow we'll have one more politics post as something of a benediction, and then mercifully back to the physics. Updates will appear at the top of the post, so feel free to refresh…
The Washington Post digs in an finds interesting parallels:
Sen. Barack Obama offers himself as a post-partisan uniter who will solve the country's problems by reaching across the aisle and beyond the framework of liberal and conservative labels he rejects as useless and outdated.
But as Obama…
As you might have heard, the presidential election is tomorrow. As I've said, I believe I'm alone on ScienceBlogs as supporting anyone but Obama. But this is Built on Facts, not Built on Wishful Thinking, and so let's have our official quadrennial Election Prediction Contest!
Here's the plan. We…
Just the salient points.
McCain does not want to spread the wealth around.
Obama wants to cut the 15 billion dollar subsidy to insurance companies.
Obama wants to invest in higher education.
McCain is taking copious notes as Obama speaks. Maybe he'll pick something up.
McCain is having a hard…
Tom Adams wrote
"Mccain has consistently traded higher at Intrade than in other futures markets, due to the activities of a single "institutional" trader, a trader who is obviously not seeking out the cheapest trades by using all available markets:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html?ref=business
"
I can confirm there was a 10% difference between betfair and intrade, I grabbed some (though a shame I had put too much in before the gap grew to 10%). The gap did briefly disappear but now when writing the difference is 11.1% to 11.6% on betfair compared to 16.6% to 16.9% on Intrade.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidenti…
It does seem as if it is intrade that is out of line. You can get better odds than at paddypower.
Anyone who wants to publish in Nature has to back Obama
>"InTrade has him as a near-cert".
Is this a spot the deliberate error thing? Intrade has Obama at 84.7% while betfair has close to 89%. I find it surprising that the difference is so persistant rather than arbitrage eliminating the difference.
I don't know about the odds but the polls suggest a landslide.
Obama 353, McCain 185.
I see that my link disappeared. Again, http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Well done USA (we hope)!
Yes we can! ;)