Plenty of other people are talking about seaice, so I don’t need to. Monthly means are more interesting the dailies, and since August is unlikely to beat September, we’re unlikely to see a record monthly mean for a month yet. The bets are summarised here and in this, to which the former refers.

I was a bit sad that the blog formerly known, rather gawkily, as “Anti-Climate Change Extremism in Utah” is now “Climate Asylum”.

mt is sad that The Way Scientists Try to Convince People Is Hopeless: “they present evidence, figures, tables, arguments, and so on. But that’s not how to convince people. People aren’t convinced by arguments. They don’t believe conclusions because they believe in the arguments that they read in favour of them. They’re convinced because they read or hear the conclusions coming from people they trust.” This is certainly true for Joe Public, and how could it be otherwise? [Actually its only partly true, because it omits the obvious, that JP type people will only believe arguments that fit in with their preconceptions.] JP is never going to check the science of GW for himself. He’s going to pick it up from… friends, the paper, the TV, his mate’s dog down the pub, whatever. But that in itself is OK, because the dog down the pub is a bit cleverer, and knows enough to trust his national academy of science, which knows enough to read and verify the science itself.

Related, Nurture has an article about “Why we are poles apart on climate change”. Apparently “The problem isn’t the public’s reasoning capacity; it’s the polluted science-communication environment that drives people apart”. And yet reading the examples seems to show many examples of irrationality: “Present them with a PhD scientist who is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, for example, and they will disagree on whether he really is an ‘expert’, depending on whether his view matches the dominant view of their cultural group… The positions on climate change of both groups track their impressions of recent weather…”. But it then turns out that all Nurture is doing is redefining rationality: “social science suggests that citizens are culturally polarized because they are, in fact, too rational — at filtering out information that would drive a wedge between themselves and their peers.” Sigh.

A while back, I found at least one reason Why Watts’s new paper is doomed to fail review. Since then, I’ve been pretending to myself that eventually I’ll read the thing and find the other fatal flaws for myself. But I think its time to admit that life is too short and the paper is too boring. Elsewhere, mt points out that Watts has given up even trying to make sense. If you want to see it ripped up, Blog review of the Watts et al. (2012) manuscript on surface temperature trends and refs therein will do. And you might find A short introduction to the time of observation bias and its correction interesting. Fairly soon I expect to decide not to bother read BEST either. Update: Eli taking the piss out of Watts over the notorious “Antarctic UHI” is fun.

Comments

  1. #1 American Idiot
    2012/08/28

    Again we have Anthony’s Zeroth Law: “Anthony does not understand even the most basic scientific principles of climate.”

    Here, Anthony doesn’t understand the difference between a constant bias and a trend. Even if he was right about a weather station contaminating the measurements, the main way it would induce a spurious upward trend is if it kept giving off more and more heat as time goes on. That could happen with gradual urbanization, but not with the heating outlets and such that he’s so fond of showing.

    It’s easy to show that a constant heat source will actually reduce a measured upward trend below the real trend. But you have to do a little math. And even more than that, you have to have a basic grasp of physical concepts like fluxes. Andy Anthony doesn’t.

  2. #2 Victor Venema
    2012/08/28

    Almost a month ago, Anthony Watts promised to submit an update of his manuscript in two days, but still no word. In principle it is good that they take their time analyzing their data carefully, but I do not see any activity on the manuscript work page. Thus some statement about the progress of this Game Changer New Paper would be appreciated by now. Looks like the authors still do not agree with each other. I do hope the revolution is not cancelled without announcement.

    [It does seem to have gone rather quiet there. RP Sr is going to end up with egg on his face, but he is sufficiently brazen to face it out, I’m sure -W]

  3. #3 Paul Felix Schott
    2012/08/28

    Our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in the State of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth’s Magnet Polls of the North and the South, North Poll. It’s called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis.

    The day will come when you will be able to see it all over Earth as in the year 1859 Solar Flare, It was the largest in 500 years. Two Astronomer’s Hodgson and Carrington told the World that the Solar Flare made a Geomagnetic Storm reach Earth in hours not days. Back then it gave new meaning to Reach For The Skies from Telegraph Operators. For hours sparks flew from the key board. Even after the Batteries were disconnected. Nov 3 and 4, 2003 had a X40+ Class Solar Flare.

    Our Sun’s UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day goes by, read and i will tell you why.

    The Great big forest have be stripped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees are our Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant.
    The Forest Trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in.

    The Forest Trees do more than just make Oxygen they stop Soil Erosion, just Look at the 1930 Dust Bowl. Greed by our Government taxes led farmers to clear cut all their Forest and farm all the land they were being Tax on. They had to farm it to pay for the Taxes. Why leave the Trees when food crop makes Money. This did not Help the Depression that effected most all Worldwide. This year 2012 more than 100 million will suffer from Malnutrition lack of food and Dehydration lack of water. Many will not make it and die!

    Soon many will run out of Safe Drinking Water from pollution going into the world’s water supply.

    In the United States of America alone more than 45 Million Americans Received Food Stamps and that number is going up every day every year for more than 3 years in a row now.

    The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a shield from most bugs so they do not eat the tree.

    Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side without Sun Light, And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there. You would need at least 10 times the Energy we use on Earth to even live there and life on the Moon would be very short.

    With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun’s UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon. Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thinner the Oxygen and colder it gets.

    Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no Sun Light and you will see or should i say feel the cold stinging any of your exposed skin. If you are new to Mt. Climbing stay below 10,000Ft. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i have been with for years know this very well, and the Radiation Hazards to humans at High Altitudes.

    Soon the Sun’s Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun Light for even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you have not seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising the Oceans. Many Millions have been affected by Floods in China and Pakistan just last year. In 2005 Over a Thousand dead in New Orleans flood, and the list going on. The sounds and rumbling of Volcanoes Around Earth are Waking Up at a Alarming rate.

    And there shall be famines, and pestilences, and Earthquakes, in divers places such as was not from the beginning of the Creation.

    The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all High Temp Records and the temp it is still going up. All the Worlds Ice Glacier are melting at an Accelerating Rate. The Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps store more water than all the Fresh Water Lakes on Earth. Many of them are drying up or water levels are going down past the lowest point every recorded.

    The Bad Weather Storms now are Babies compared to what is to come.

    They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth and more Water molecules will evaporate and go up into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder without sun light and hotter with it.

    The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer. All earth will see way more fires and the Deserts are growing larger.

    If every living person on Earth were to Plant A Tree Today we might have a chance.

    The Earth’s Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him.

    Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away.

    This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it
    and may our Lord Bless all that do so.

    The Lord’s Little Helper
    Paul Felix Schott

    solardowork@yahoo.com
    KI4-AEX

    P.S.
    2 Peter 3:10
    But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the Earth and its works will be burned up.

    GOD Bless You and Your Love ones
    Give thanks to our Lord Jesus Christ every day.

    Read

    Matthew 24: 30-33

    Earth is at its Limits

    MANY OF US IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY HAVE BEEN SAYING SOME OF THIS FOR YEARS

    The United Nations is now taking a serious look into “Earth’s Limits” Earth will very soon be at its Limits of no return for many things including all life on Earth.

    If we keep going at this rate we will not have another 20 years to go back to Rio De Janeiro to play. Most all in the Scientific Community said this 20 years ago at the last time Leaders set up this meeting in Rio De Janeiro. Of course on the Tax payers money, and of course they said about the same thing again we need to do something!

    There is enough Energy from our Sun to Power all are needs on Earth and more. The richest on Earth are doing just that Building Solar Power Plants at a record pace.

    Solar Energy

    The Fastest growing energy on Earth.

    Albert Einstein 100 years ago showed the World it could get
    Free Energy, Electric from the SUN. (THE PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFECT).

  4. #4 David B. Benson
    2012/08/28

    I don’t bother with BEST.

  5. #5 Eli Rabett
    http://rabett.blogspot.com
    2012/08/28

    Sometimes it is better to leave sleeping Tonys lie, after all, if they come up with something we will have to spend a few precious brain cells tearing it to bits.

    [I mostly do. A year ago I cared; I’m not sure if he has degenerated in that year, or if the nonsense has become clearer to me -W]

  6. #6 Rascal Dog
    2012/08/29

    So I gotta spend more time at the pub do I?
    At least their sausages are tasty. If I can talk, lick or wag someone into giving me one or two.
    And you think they will listen to me about climate change? I’ll try, if that is what it takes.

  7. #7 SplatterPatterns
    2012/08/29

    American Idiot, 8:28 pm (from the prior thread)

    “Quick question on Arctic ice trends: Just from eyeballing the curves is looks like the lower the minimum, the later it occurs. Is this part of the accepted wisdom? I’m not a cryo guy but can talk myself into thinking it makes sense.

    [I’m not aware of it being part of the wisdom. Or even true, looking at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm and 2011 -W]”

    Making no claim of expertise but the decal averages on the graph in this post (and not so apparent on the one linked in reply to your question), show an increasingly later minimum. The whole ocean heat content from reduced albedo mechanism would surely be consistent with this. 2011’s daily min was indeed early, but 2010 had gyrations around a minimum for ~2 weeks before buckling down and steadily adding ice at rather late date. For the complete years of IJIS/JAXA data (2003-2011), I make an average min date of September 17th.

  8. #8 ligne
    2012/08/29

    someone asked about change in the date of the minimum over at Tamino’s recently (no link, i’m lazy). apparently, there is no statistically significant change in any of the metrics.

    having taken a shufti myself, i think it’s just an illusion due to 2007’s late surge. but my eyecrometer may currently be miscalibrated due to the effects of alchyhol.

  9. #9 Rattus Norvegicus
    2012/08/30

    ligne, been watching the Republican? The horror, the horror…

  10. #10 bigcitylib
    bigcitylib.blogspot.com
    2012/08/30

    [I mostly do. A year ago I cared; I’m not sure if he has degenerated in that year, or if the nonsense has become clearer to me -W]

    He’s degenerated. Really, I think, since the second whack of CRU emails came out and the media ignored them. They’ve all degenerated, and McI has suggested throwing in the towel on his blog once or twice.

  11. #11 Eli Rabett
    http://rabett.blogspot.com
    2012/08/30

    What it does is get wider, for a couple of reasons, first if the ice is open, there is oppportunity to warm, second, circulation makes the open water more salty. Thus the refreeze takes more time.

    Where the exact minimum is probably depends more on currents and weather, principally through how compact the ice mass remaining is.

    Thats an EWAG (Eli’s wild assed guess)

  12. […] 2012/08/28: Stoat: Sea ice but mostly other stuff […]

  13. #13 Phil Hays
    2012/09/04

    August 2012 didn’t beat September 2007.
    August 2012 extent 4.72 area 2.52
    September 2007 extent 4.30 area 2.78

    [Thanks for saving me having to look it up -W]

  14. #14 crandles
    2012/09/05

    >”[Thanks for saving me having to look it up -W]”

    No change of post to reflect accepting you were wrong about monthly area?

    [I don’t think I’ve talked about area. Which bit do you mean? -W]

  15. #15 crandles
    2012/09/05

    Second sentence starts “Monthly means are” implying plural. However you could be talking about monthly extent from multiple different sources and you continue “August is” so yes you can wriggle out of that one in a couple of different ways even if I can only think of NSIDC September average extent and area being published. Perhaps there is other monthly data published that I cannot recall at present?

    Perhaps ambiguous but I will have to be more careful about teasing you about being wrong. Anyway I better say sorry about that one.

    [I don’t think there is anything to apologise for. By “monthly means” I meant extent, but in different months. As in, the monthly extent means for 2007 and 2012, for example -W]

The site is currently under maintenance and will be back shortly. New comments have been disabled during this time, please check back soon.