pandemic
gregladen | October 26, 2015Here's a question for you: Historical records show that another pandemic will occur, but no one knows when. How do we create a mind shift among world leaders and people in general to start planning for the next one now?
This question is being posed in connection with the series premiere of National Geographic's "Fighting Pandemics" (November 1 at 9 pm ET on National Geographic Channel). The question is about pandemics, but the inspiration for the series, and the question, is the recent ebola pandemic in West Africa. I have a few thoughts, and I've been thinking about Ebola for a long time…
oracknows | September 18, 2014
This one will be much shorter than usual, mainly because I was out late last night for a dinner function at which I was on a panel of breast cancer experts. I must admit, even after having been an attending surgeon for 15 years, it never ceases to make me feel a bit weird to be presented as a “breast cancer expert”—or an expert at anything, for that matter. It’s rather like how I sometimes feel a bit weird that skeptic groups still invite me to give talks. Ten years ago, I sucked at public speaking. Now I’m apparently good enough that people want to hear me. Go figure.
In any event, I hate…
tsmith | October 28, 2013(Spoilers. And things.)
After the start of season 4 of the Walking Dead and the introduction of a new nemesis: a fast-spreading, deadly infectious disease that seems to be a strain of influenza, I was looking forward to the plot arc of this season.
And then episode 3, "Isolation", happened. From an infectious disease standpoint, I say, bah.
At the end of the previous episode, "Infected", the group had decided to lock up anyone who was showing signs of the infectious disease within the death row cellblock, so that they would not further spread the disease, and to put the children and elderly (…
dr. dolittle | September 3, 2013 Image of Indian Flying Fox from Wikipedia, Fritz Geller-Grimm
An ambititous project seeks to identify all unknown viruses in mammals to determine the relative risk of infection to humans and to develop strategies to prevent and treat infections before they become pandemics. The pioneering research team is led by Dr. Simon Anthony at Columbia University and Dr. Peter Daszak from EcoHealth Alliance.
The team started by looking for viral infections in the Indian flying fox (Pteropus giganteus), a species with pathogens known to transfer to humans (Nipah and Hendra viruses). Over five years,…
gregladen | July 21, 2013It seems to me that the science of epidemiology is a lot like being in shoe sales in a country on the pacific rim. You never know when the other shoe is going to drop, but you know it will. Our species (humans) is numerous, contiguous, and dense (in more ways than one). This means that a highly virulent pathogen could spread across the globe and kill a gazillion people before we could do anything to stop it. Yet, such a thing has not happened in modern times, meaning, since the widespread and easy flux of population provided by the airline industry at several scales of space.
At the…
kbonham | August 28, 2012
For the past 3 years, I've had the opportunity to spend a week in a house on a beautiful lake in Vermont. Usually, this week is a chance to completely unplug. I take some photos, buy a bunch of books from Northshire and read them, and lounge around. On this past trip however, I received and e-mail that was equal parts wonderful, exciting and terrifying, offering me an opportunity to teach a course at Emerson College.
The course is SC-214 - Plagues and Pandemics. From the catalogue:
Infectious diseases are a leading worldwide cause of human death. This course will describe and discuss the…
edyong | November 3, 2009A friend of mine recently got onto a train and found a group of four seats that were empty except for one woman who was sitting face down. She looked asleep and he looked forward to a quiet journey. As soon as he sat down, the woman lifted her head to reveal streaming, puffy eyes and started sneezing profusely. This happened a few weeks after swine flu first began to dominate the headlines but being English, he was bound to the socially awkward choice of staying in his seat for the sake of avoiding social awkwardness.
Many of us probably have similar stories. At a time when fears of a flu…
edyong | October 26, 2009The prospect of infections spreading from animals to humans has become all too real with the onset of the current swine flu pandemic, and the threat of a bird flu still looming. But infections can jump the other way too. Decades before the world's media were gripped with panic over bird flu, humans transferred a disease to chickens and it has since caused a poultry pandemic right under our noses.
The infection in question is a familiar one - Staphylococcus aureus, a common human bacterium that's behind everything from mild skin infections to life-threatening MRSA. It causes chicken…
edyong | June 29, 2009The swine flu pandemic (S-OIV) currently sweeping the world is the result of an influenza H1N1 virus that made the leap from pigs to humans. But this jump is just the latest leg of a journey that has taken over 90 years and shows no signs of finishing.
Today's pandemic is a fourth-generation descendant of the 1918 flu virus that infected around a third of the world's population. This original virus is an incredible survivor and one that has spawned a huge legacy of daughter viruses. By importing and exporting its genes, it has contributed to several new strains that have been responsible for…
tsmith | May 3, 2009Over at DailyKos, DemfromCT has an excellent post explaining why it may be beneficial for schools to close temporarily, even if they only have one confirmed case of swine influenza: H1N1: Why Do Schools Close, And When Do They Open?
DarkSyde also has one up on the basic biology and evolution of the flu.
Nick Kristof discusses our lack of attention to public health and what it means in the event of a pandemic in today's NY Times.
[Updated: and via the comment theads, this post which further discusses what I mentioned here regarding testing--and how the confirmed cases are only the tip…
ddobbs | May 1, 2009Theme of the day (again, sort of): managing expectation, or Do I panic or just ignore this thing and scoff at those who express concern?
Neither, of course.
I'm personally provisionally encouraged at the aggregated news from yesterday -- meaning I was glad to see that though the virus is spreading, its pace doesn't seem to be wildly accelerating and, more important, there are some signs that it's not (at this point) horrifically virulent; some experts are saying it might not be much worse than a regular seasonal flu, and the warming weather is on our side.
Same time, it makes sense to take…
tsmith | April 30, 2009I've been seeing a lot of comments mocking the current outbreak of H1N1, and a lot of people (and journalists) who don't understand what "big deal" is about the "snoutbreak" of swine influenza, or don't get what the raising of the World Health Organization's pandemic alert phase up to 5 means. I noted here what the alert level meant, but wanted to discuss it a bit more in a full post; after the jump.
So, some comments I've seen thrown about:
This is all just media hype! Lies about the Mexican cases! The WHO just revised their numbers down to 26 cases and 7 deaths! Why should I believe…
amillikan | April 27, 2009
Correction appended: This post incorrectly stated the Center for Disease Control as the organization responsible for raising the pandemic threat level. This is the duty of the World Health Organization.
Swine flu outbreaks are raising alarm across the globe and prompting the World Health Organizationto consider raising the pandemic threat level. For the most current interpretations of what's happening from experts on the ScienceBlogs network, see the following category threads: "Pandemic-Preparedness" and "Swine Flu" from Revere at Effect Measure, and "Influenza" and "Outbreak" from Tara…
ddobbs | April 27, 2009
"Swine Flu and the Mexico Mystery," my story on the swine-flu outbreak, is up at Slate. It looks at a question hotly pursued right now: Why does this flu seem to take a much deadlier course in Mexico than elsewhere so far? The answers will suggest much about what's to come.
Of the two two qualities vital to a nasty pandemicm-- to spread readily, and to be deadly, -- this flu,a brand-new strain of swine flu, or H1N1, seems to possess the first: Evidence is high that it spreads readily among humans. In that sense, it's an inversion of the bird flu. Bird flu terrifies infectious disease…
tsmith | April 26, 2009While there's interest and some new readers, I figured I'd link some of my older posts on swine influenza and pandemic influenza in general for some additional background information and history. Keep in mind that these are unrelated to the current outbreak.
Pandemic influenza series (a bit dated, but still some good information in there, including an overview of 20th century pandemics).
Asymptomatic swine flu infections in farmers
Swine flu in Ohio fairgoers
Iowan has swine flu
New swine influenza virus detected
Masks and influenza
Masks and influenza part II
tsmith | April 26, 2009According to new information from the CDC, in addition to the 2 cases in Texas, 7 in California, and 2 in Kansas, the 8 in New York have now been confirmed, and an additional case has also been confirmed in Ohio (I've not seen any info on that case)--UPDATED below. Investigations are apparently ongoing in at least 2 Canadian provinces, also (British Columbia and Nova Scotia). An investigation is also ongoing in New Zealand after teenagers took a trip to Mexico and have shown flu-like symptoms.
Concerning to say the least, but crof and revere both have some excellent posts to keep things…
tsmith | April 25, 2009Sorry for the radio silence--I've been working on grants and manuscripts like a fiend, and so have tried to limit as many distractions as possible (which, unfortunately, includes blogging). However, the swine flu news is right up my alley, so I do just want to say a few words about it, and point you to some excellent stories already up elsewhere.
First, in case you've not been paying attention to the news in the last few days, there have been 8 reported cases of swine influenza infections in humans (6 in California and 2 in Texas, with additional suspected cases) and reports from Mexico…
gregladen | February 14, 2009For the last couple of decades, perhaps beginning around the time of the publication of Laurie Garret's excellent thesis (The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance) on disease and politics and continuting through Gina Kolata's "Flu: The Story Of The Great Influenza Pandemic" there has been increased attention on the 1918 flu virus and pandemic, as well as subsequent outbreaks. This interest has probably been fueled by increased knowledge of (or incidence of?) tragic and highly newsworthy outbreaks of Ebola, SARS, and so on. More recently, the perception has grown…
amillikan | December 16, 2008As the time of the year approaches when influenza virus is most rampantly transmitted, ScienceBloggers are assesing current influenza vaccination practices and questioning how shortcomings in them could play out in a pandemic situation, which experts predict could arise in the near future. To help prevent contracting the flu this season, ScienceBogger PalMd advises frequent hand washing.