California Primary

Who Won The California, New Jersey and Other Democratic Primaries?

gregladen | June 8, 2016

And, how did my model do? There was a lot of talk about California, and a lot of back and forth, but in the end I stuck with my original model to predict the outcome of that race. See the table above for the results, but the bottom line is that I predicted that Clinton would get 57 percent of the votes and Sanders 43 percent. It turns out that Clinton got 57 percent and Sanders got 43 percent. Excuse me for a moment while I bask in the bright light of being-right-ness. Thank you. Now, on to the details. First, a quick, note on the numbers and methods. All my percents (for prediction and…

Democratic Primary and Size of State

gregladen | April 15, 2016

When either candidate wins a state, that candidate's supporters celebrate and underscore the significance of that win. The other candidate's supporters generally proceed to explain how it was not a significant win, or in some cases, come up with conspiracy theories about how the election was stolen. So, here is an interesting question: Does one candidate or another, between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, tend to win bigger states more, or smaller states more? This is important because next Tuesday is the New York Primary, and New York is huge. Of course, state size is not the only…