Election 2016
gregladen | September 28, 2017Or so it seems.
Donald Trump won the 2016 election with 306 votes to Hillary Clinton's 232 votes. That is a spread of 74 votes.
Clinton was likely to win in several states in which she lost, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, maybe Ohio, etc. In three states that could have gone either way, Jill Stein's vote count was larger than the difference between Clinton and Trump. In Michigan, Trump won by 10,704 votes, Stein got 51,463 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump won by 46,765 votes, Stein got 49,678 votes. In Wisconsin, Trump won by 22,177 votes, Stein got 31,006 votes.
If every Jill…
gregladen | December 16, 2016Putin probably owns Trump. In the past, Trump has spent enough high profile time traveling in and out of Russia, that any smart intelligence agency would have long ago gotten the goods on such a sloppy self absorbed person. Assume there are movies. Young girls. Whatever. Putin probably owns Trump. The ex KGB officer probably owns a lot of people, a lot of foreign rich or influential individuals. That's how these things work.
Trump is a man that relies on the image of great personal wealth. But, if he has great personal wealth it is a mere couple of billion or so. Alternatively, he may…
gregladen | November 25, 2016As you know, there is interest in doing a recount for the presidential balloting in three key states. The chance that a recount in these three states would change Trump's win (290 to 232 electoral votes) is small. But, it is possible that a recount could demonstrate irregularities that should be addressed.
Also, there is the possibility again small, of so-called "faithless electors" giving Trump a pass. If something like that happens, from Clinton's perspective, it would be nice if even one of these states flipped (most likely Wisconsin).
So, to keep track of the numbers, here are the…
gregladen | November 11, 2016Look
In case the point is not clear, read:
Trump’s anti-Semitism, racism, sexism, was not so genuine or violent as it sounded, and he was merely using this language as bait to catch masses of followers, and keep them aroused, enthusiastic, and in line for the time when his organization is ready to make a political move.
A sophisticated commenter credited Trump with peculiar political cleverness for laying emphasis and over-emphasis on racist and sexist rhetoric, saying “You can’t expect the masses to understand or appreciate your finer real aims. You must feed the masses with cruder morsels…
gregladen | November 11, 2016Remember the Dump Nixon movement?
Well, now we have the Dump Trump movenet. Same idea, but it rhyme better!
I have assembled a handful of suggestions for your body, your car, your doorway.
The Dump Trump Hat Anti-Trump Navy Blue also comes in a "Fuck Trump" version and is very reasonably priced. I've already ordered mine.
This second one is cheaper: Dump Trump- Navy Blue Hat/Cap- Low Profile- Adjustable 100% Cotton.
I'm actually worried that I'll wear out my Dump Trump hat, so I'll probably order one of these too just in case.
Here is a Dump Trump Tee Shirt:
Dump Trump T-Shirt-Funny…
gregladen | November 11, 2016Secretary Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. The way the current Electoral College works, Trump won the Electoral Vote.
However, from the point of view of Federal Law, he didn't win anything yet. The Electors who gather in each state, with each state's Secretary of State, to vote on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December are not bound by Federal rule to vote for Trump. They could cast their vote for Clinton.
Those organizing protests may want to consider having some of those protests at the Secretary of State's office, with the idea of having a very large protest on the…
gregladen | November 10, 2016Donald Trump is the president elect of the United States. Why?
Trump did not win because he is widely liked. He is NOT widely liked.
A very small number of Americans voted for Trump, and this number was magnified by the conservative-state-favoring electoral college, and most of those who did not vote for him not only don’t prefer him, but find him truly abhorrent. During the campaign, and over his 70 year long life, Donald trump has done or said myriad things each of which is fully disqualifying to be a candidate for president. These deplorable things are, of course, the reason he won this…
gregladen | November 9, 2016Remember those clowns a few weeks ago? The scary clowns? I think they were trying to tell us something.
Did you know that 235,248,000 people are eligible to vote in the United States? Fewer than 120,000,000 of those people bothered to show up to vote this year, and turnout was considered high. Of those, about half, or one quarter of the voting population, elected a clown as our leader, because the clown promised to take steps to ensure a continued white majority in the United States.
That’s what happened in my world last night. What happened in your world?
Between the bouts of…
gregladen | November 8, 2016HOW TO REPORT VOTER INTIMIDATION
Dump your comments and observations here.
I'll be looking at several SOS web sites, and eventually I'll find the best on line tracker of results for the whole country. During the primaries, the Washington Post was the best. Let me know if you have any ideas.
So far heavy turnout has been noted in Minnesota, where turnout is always high, and something close to 30% of the usual number of voters had already voted early.
The biggest fear, a among those of us who have felt the pain of defeat at least as often as the thrill of victory, is this: Heavy turnout…
gregladen | November 7, 2016The 2016 Electoral Vote Prediction
I'm finished making predictions for the 2016 Presidential Election contest.
According to my model, Hillary Clinton will win with 310 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 228 electoral votes. The map is shown above.
Caveats and wrongosities:
My model puts Iowa barely in Clinton's column. Polls say Iowa is for Trump.
My model puts New Hampshire barely in Trump's column. Polls say it is for Clinton, barely.
My model puts Ohio barely in Trump's column, but the polls put it in Clinton's column.
Polls and other data are ambiguous about Florida, my model is…
gregladen | November 5, 2016Who will win the electoral vote on Tuesday, November 8th?
It is not what you say, but how you say it. For several days now, I've been told by some how totally wrong I am in my various analyses of the electoral map. Half the naysayers say "But but FiveThirtyEight says this, so you are wrong" and the other half say "No, no, Sam Wang at Princeton says that, so you are wrong!" But all along, we've all three been saying something very similar. The difference in how we say it is, Sam Wang says something like "I'll eat my shorts if Clinton doesn't win" and I say "I think Clinton will win, but…
gregladen | November 4, 2016"Unwitting Trump embraces black supremacist cultist support"
This story is precious.
Here's the thing.
Michael the Blackman (that's his name), the black guy who stands or sits behind Trump at many of his rallies, tells us that Hillary is the financier of slavery. We know this because Hilary's name is Hillary Rodham Clinton. Rodham is the descendants of Rothschild, and her biggest donor is a Rothschild. So, Rothschild - Rockefeller - JP Morgan. See? The financiers of slavery. See? The supporters of Clinton are the Canaanites. The ones you've seen in the night clubs, with the black…
gregladen | November 4, 2016It appears that if Donald Trump is elected president, many world leaders, including the leaders of the Western European countries, will freeze out the US from intelligence and security decisions, because they have learned that they can't trust Trump's ability to manage or handle intelligence, and recognize that he will be Putin's puppet.
In phone calls, meetings and cables, America’s European allies have expressed alarm to one another about Donald Trump’s public statements denying Moscow’s role in cyberattacks designed to interfere with the U.S. election. They fear the Republican nominee for…
gregladen | November 4, 2016We now know that the several elements of the FBI, especially the New York Office, are manipulating this election in favor of Donald Trump, possibly in cahoots with Rudy Giuliani.
This is not FBI Director Comey releasing vague memos. Well, there is that, but it is not clear if Comey wrote that damaging memo because he wanted to hurt Clinton, or if it was because he was not fully in control of his agents and was trying to pre-empt a leak. What we now know is that several FBI agents, spread across the country but with a pernicious group in New York, are strong Trump supporters, and have been…
gregladen | November 3, 2016The most likely way for Hillary Clinton to not win the presidency may be a tie between Secretary Clinton and Donald Trump. This is because, when one looks at the data a number of ways, and makes various adjustments, Clinton wins, often just barely, most of the time, except in what appears to be the worst case scenario. That scenario is Clinton losing most of what are called "Battleground States" -- but for the most part, only those that are truly in contention, so it is quite possible -- but retaining her "firewall" states, the states she really can not possibly lose. That puts Clinton 3…
gregladen | November 2, 2016"Trump's chance of victory have doubled over the last two weeks," notes FiveThirtyEight, and this is in accord with what I've been saying.
I suggested a few days ago that while Clinton would probably win, there is a nowhere near zero chance that she won't. FiveThirtyEight came out with an analysis today very similar to mine, suggesting that Trump has abut a 3 in 10 chance of winning. Historically, races tighten near the end, I think FOR THIS REASON mainly, and that has been happening. The actual national difference between Clinton and Trump by Tuesday will probably be about 2.5 percent or…
gregladen | November 1, 2016The election is one week off. I think I've convincingly demonstrated, here, that Clinton is likely but not certain to win, that Trump has something of a chance, but not a great one, and that the swing states, therefore, matter.
There are a lot of states that are called swing states but are not. There are non-swing states that are slowly becoming swing states. For example, Georgia and Texas may well be swing states for the next presidential election. Virginia has been considered a swing state for so long that this now reliably semi-progressive/centrist vote-for-the-Dems-for-POTUS state…
gregladen | October 30, 2016The relationship between the popular vote, roughly reflected in national polls, and the Electoral College vote, is where the rubber meets the road.
When you look at states that are very solid for each candidate, neither candidate has a lock on the race, but Clinton has way more electoral votes, currently. These numbers hover around 200-something to 100-something.
Then there are the strongly leaning states, which when added to the other states, put Clinton almost exactly at the required 270 electoral votes. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less, depending on which states you think you can…
gregladen | October 30, 2016When Secretary Clinton is elected President, barring more shenanigans on the part of Republicans like James Comey, she will take an oath of office, promising to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States of America.
Then, within a few days, she'll violate that oath by appointing one or more Republicans to important positions in the Federal Government.
(As an aside, I'm wondering, what is the mechanism for paying someone like James Comey for giving a helping hand to his party and violating his constitutional oath? Offshore accounts? Do the payments come later? How does that…
gregladen | October 29, 2016No.
Many many people, well intended, smart people, keep talking about the rout, the landslide, that will happen. They may be basing this on the new trend started by FiveThirtyEight and picked up by the New York Times and others of deriving a probability statement about the race. But when you see something like "87%" for Clinton in such an estimate, that does not mean that Clinton will get 87% of the votes. It means that it is very likely that Clinton will get 270 or more electoral votes. There is, for example, a zero chance that Clinton will get a single electoral electoral from Montana,…