Canada and the Kyoto Protocol

Word is Canada will give the world a lump of coal tar for Christmas:

Canada will announce next month that it will formally withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, CTV News has learned.

The Harper government has tentatively planned an announcement for a few days before Christmas, CTV's Roger Smith reported Sunday evening.

Given the Canada was never on track to come anywhere close to achieving its Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in greenhouse gases relative to 1990 levels, the only consequence of the decision will be political rather than climatological. It's worth noting that it looks like the protocol will meet its modest goals, with or without Canada:

Even including the [non-signatory] USA, whose emissions in 2008-2010 are 11 percent more than in 1990, the industrialised countries have on average reduced greenhouse gas emissions by about 7.5 percent in the period 2008-2010, compared with 1990. Together they are well on course to achieve the [Kyoto] protocol, target of a collective average decrease in greenhouse gas emissions of 5.2 percent between 2008 and 2012 compared to the 1990 level. -- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

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Does anyone have a good estimate for how many millions of barrels of oil per day will be produced in the near to not-so-near future? My understanding is that the production will barely exceed 3 or 4 mbpd in 5+ years.

It is much more difficult to increase production of a source that has to be mined, processed and chemically transformed with large amounts of heat, water and hydrogen from nat. gas, than from a series of wells. The newer in situ mining methods like SAG and THAI will help, but will not increase rates very greatly, since the physical and chemical processing is still required to make the tar flow.

From what I read, the figure you quoted regarding how many millions of barrels of oil per day being produced in 4-5 years time will be in the region of 3 or 4 mbpd.

This is a disturbing sign for the whole ecology of the world ... It must be understood that the withdrawal of recourse in Kyoto can cause a chain reaction of global giants such as China and India ...

Thanks for this post and your others. It's good to have a reliable source of information on climate change that is scientifically based.

I am paying "blog calls" to each @scio12 attendee to say "Hi" and give your blog a shoutout on twitter (I'm @sciencegoddess). I look forward to seeing you in January!