hrynyshyn | May 14, 2010The good news is one of the best video sources of dispassionate, accurate, science-based information about climate change, Climate Denial Crock of the Week, is in the running for a $5,000 grant, over at Brighter Planet. The bad news is, it's an Internet poll that determines who gets the cash, so being worthy isn't enough. You can help put CCoTW over the top (it's currently in second place), but signing up and voting. You even get three votes! So, for once, I can say: "Vote early, vote often," and mean it.
[UPDATE: We did it.]
hrynyshyn | May 13, 2010... is actually good news for those holding down the scientific fort.
Last week, Science published a letter from 255 members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences pleading for "an end to McCarthy-like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues" in the climatology community. The letter laid bare (not bear) the scientific basis for the theory of anthropogenic climate change, a theory the authors said belongs in the same category as the theories of evolution and the Big Bang. So far so good. It was accompanied by a collage image of polar bear isolated on a single ice floe (at…
hrynyshyn | May 12, 2010The Boston Globe has assembled 40 outstanding photographs of what's happening in the Gulf. Click on the shot below to see the rest:
hrynyshyn | May 11, 2010Most of the alarmism generated by climate predictions deals with sea level rise, drought, and biodiversity loss. But what happens to waterfront property, farms and polar bears could be the least of our worries if temperatures rise much more than a few degrees. A new paper in PNAS, "An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress," paints a much more dire future for much of the larger mammals on the planet, including humans.
In the paper, Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales and Matthew Huber of Purdue University try to estimate how warm the Earth can get before…
hrynyshyn | May 7, 2010There's a letter in today's Science from 255 members of the National Academy of Sciences that deserves to be read:
Climate Change and the Integrity of Science
We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the…
hrynyshyn | May 3, 2010The estimates of the just how much oil is spewing into the Gulf of Mexico from BP's Deepwater Horizon rig keep rising. The latest guess -- and it is just a guess -- is something like 210,000 gallons a day. It is almost certainly going to eclipse the Exxon Valdez catastrophe by the time things are brought under control. Who knows how much damage has been done to the Gulf Coast ecology and economy? But could it be that we're lucky this happened where and when it did, instead of a few years down the road in an even more difficult spot, say the Arctic Ocean?
Canada has long been interested in…
hrynyshyn | April 30, 2010Remember how the island on Lost vanished, only to reappear somewhere else? Well, that's what's about to happen here. The phrase "Island of Doubt" has served its purpose, and is being replaced. This is the last post that will appear on that title.
The new blog "Class M," can be found here. It's still part of the ScienceBlogs collective. Its mission is to explore the science bearing on the Earth as a planet suitable for human habitation, which is pretty much what the Island of Doubt came to be all about. The only difference is I will no longer stray into unrelated matters.
My apologies to…
hrynyshyn | April 30, 2010April seems to have been "Beat up on Christopher Monckton" month among climate science bloggers. Why all the attention? Part of the reason is even reputable media outlets the likes of The New York Times continue to treat him as the equal of someone with genuine professional expertise in matter climatological. Also relevant is his brief candidacy for public office in the May 6 general election in the U.K. He is now just climate change spokesperson for the UK Independence Party.
I hope it's not too late to add my own thoughts. First, it matters not one whit whether Monckton is or isn't a member…
hrynyshyn | April 29, 2010One last look at Judith Curry, before I shut down the Island of Doubt and launch my new blog tomorrow. I, and many other climateers, remain fascinated by what she has to say, largely because we've never seen a respected climatologist be so publicly critical of her peers and so tolerant of the pseudoskeptics, but also because what she's talking about goes straight to the heart of the battle.
The latest volley comes in the form a comment at Keith Kloor's Collide-a-scape blog:
The people slagging off on McIntyre, Watts et al. have probably spent no time over at their blogs or made an effort to…
hrynyshyn | April 27, 2010
Seeing as the comments function is still unavailable here, I'll continue to point y'all elsewhere. The problem will resolved by this weekend, at which time I'll resume posting more original content.
Judith's Curry's now (in)famous Q and A with Keith Kloor continues to fascinate the blogosphere. Today, Stoat provides a more detailed, and even more critical response to her take on Wegman vs. NRC reports and other controversial subjects, and Curry herself provides more insight into her evolution from a standard bearer of anthropogenic global warming into a critic of the IPCC. A disillusioned…
hrynyshyn | April 24, 2010There aren't too many working climate scientists out there arguing that the release of the University of East Anglia emails may end up being a good thing. But that seems to be what Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology is arguing. Over at Collide-a-scape, Keith Kloor has posted an email exchange with Curry, who lays out her problems with the state of climate science, the IPCC and a few individuals, ostensibly in hopes of generating some sincere soul-searching and reflection that results in improvements to both the climatology community and the way it communicates with the public…
hrynyshyn | April 23, 2010Renewable energy advocates like to trumpet the rapid growth rate of wind farms and solar power plants, and it's true. Installed wind capacity grew by almost 32 percent globally in 2009, according to on industry estimate. Capacity is now doubling every three years. That's a remarkable feat, considering how sluggish the world economy has been. But it's important to put such numbers in perspective.
All the wind farms in the world are capable of producing just 160 GW of electricity (let's not worry about actual production vs theoretical capacity for the moment). By comparison, the total global…
hrynyshyn | April 22, 2010On the advent of this 40th Earth Day, nine climatologists from Germany take a look at the range of likely scenarios if we do nothing more to reduce the causes of global warming than is called for by what the world agreed to at Copenhagen last year. The bottom line:
"it is equivalent to racing towards a cliff and hoping to stop just before it."
Here's the summary, as laid out in an opinion essay in Nature (subs req'd, although with something this important, it really shouldn't be:
Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding…
hrynyshyn | April 21, 2010Nothing I could write on the subject of the corporatization of environmentalism can best this.
hrynyshyn | April 20, 2010The idea that deglaciation could affect vulcanism is not new. For anyone who thinks that linking climate change to volcanic eruptions is a prime example of over-the-top alarmism, consider this look at the subject in New Scientist in 2006:
Although these forces on the Earth's crust are subtly changing all the time, their effects are most obvious at times of major or sudden climate change, such as at the beginning and end of an ice age or during the period of climate change we are expected to experience over the coming centuries. As the balance changes between the stresses acting on the crust…
hrynyshyn | April 16, 2010Another critical mass of climate change pseudoskeptics will be gathering today for an D.C. lunch event titled "The Climategate Scandals: What Has Been Revealed And What Does It Mean?" It features: Pat Michaels of the Cato Institute and Joseph D'Aleo of ICECAP and is being hosted by Ben Lieberman of the Heritage Foundation and Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
More on the speakers and hosts later, but first, let's look at the description of the event, which appears on the invitation reproduced by invitee Sheril "Intersection" Kirshenbaum:
The scientific case for catastrophic…
hrynyshyn | April 15, 2010When I created the Island of Doubt five years ago, I was fascinated by the battle between science and irrationality. I had just moved to the U.S., it would be several months before my work permit would be granted, and I needed an outlet to keep my writing skills sharp. Inspired in no small part by Chris Mooney's Intersection blog, I began posting weekly ruminations on the what I consider to be the "betrayal of the Enlightenment" so evident in my new home and elsewhere. Within a year or so, however, I began to focus almost exclusively on just one species of reality-denial: climate change…
hrynyshyn | April 9, 2010From NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt, in the Washington Post, discussing the value of computer climate models:
If the models are as flawed as critics say, Schmidt said, "You have to ask yourself, 'How come they work?' "
Indeed. Also of note is a comment from someone who doesn't share Schmidt's confidence:
Warren Meyer, a mechanical and aerospace engineer by training who blogs at www.climate-skeptic.com, said that climate models are highly flawed. He said the scientists who build them don't know enough about solar cycles, ocean temperatures and other things that can nudge the earth's…
hrynyshyn | April 8, 2010Paul Krugman's feature in the New York Times covers it all. If you haven't familiarized yourself with the subject, then find 15 minutes to read it. Worth noting: the debate between Krugman and James Hansen over the merits of cap and trade persists, but Krugman appears to at least grant Hansen recognition that burning coal will probably have to be restricted regardless of any market-based approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.
hrynyshyn | March 24, 2010Fellow Scienceblogger Sharon "Casaubon's Book" Astyk warns us that the latest thinking on proximity to climate tipping points supports the premise that we can't make the transition to a post-carbon economy without surrendering some of that oh-so-sacred American way of life. At least, that the message I get from this:
I have argued for many years that we are going to, in the end, have to turn to the language of sacrifice and selflessness, of unity in the face of potential disaster -- even potential failure -- and that we are better off (because we then achieve at least honesty) choosing that…