If the election were held tomorrow, it would be a rout. What depresses me is that after all the genuine scandals of the last few years - Abramoff, Iraq, cooked intelligence, Plamegate, etc. - the Republicans will probably be toppled by a minor sex scandal. Americans are still annoying Puritans.
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You wrote:
Don't get cocky. Don't forget that the districts are pretty well gerrymandered, so even that sort of a lead will not be reflected in the final House count.
Yes I'd say 50-50 that Republicans don't lose either house. Democrats or people who would vote Democrat won't come out to vote against them, and the faithful will be faithful, and abortion is still allowed thus Democrats are anti-religion. I have heard this from several people and I hope they are wrong, but that is why Foley may make an impact - its directly against the Republican base. I do think veterans coming back from the Middle East may help Democrats - everybody knows one or the family of one around here and there is some backlash.
I agree with your point; even if the poll is not reflected in the election results (because of the insane gerrymandering), the shift of the voters is remarkable. Nevermind the war on science, on the environment, on public welfare, on civil liberties, on the international legal system, on democracy, on safety, and... um... I'm most be forgetting a few (oh, yes, a pair of failed wars overseas)... But no, it's a chat by a horny minor figure what is needed to make the people notice that something may be wrong.
Sitting in the non-US part of the world as I am, I'm not specially depressed about it, but rather worried, annoyed, sad, and a bit curious (come on, the country is plain weird! One wishes to send a team of anthropologists over there, to try to make sense of it!).
As an 'alien' in the US I am in the unfortunate position of being ineligible to vote, but directly affected by the political zeitgeist...
Ahcuh got it exactly right -- in that gerrymandered districts will make it very difficult to oust even the worst of the religious right. Markk echoed this with the lamentable (but true) statement that many democrats wont even bother to vote.
I can only hope that the veterans and their relatives are influenced to exert their influence... and in the right direction.
Unfortunately, many people are still under the impression (supported by RR media such as Fox newz) that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are wars against terrorism.
The American public are constantly told that it's unpatriotic to voice outrage or even concern about the conduct of their government, and continue to remain quiet when the most egregious power grab in the history of the US is occurring under their very noses (elimination of habeas corpus for 'terrorists', lack of adherence to geneva conventions 'they are not POWs so it doesnt apply, etc.) Europeans find this generally strange. How can such a generally powerful and successful nation (implying their population must be somewhat better equipped mentally than their opposition) be so gullible?
Unfortunately - the denigration of 'wishy-washy liberals' and 'intellectuals' in the latter quarter of the 20th century in the US has led to a media-obsessed culture that relies of 'sound-bite' analysis, and actively avoids any suggestion of 'thinking'.
I am continually amazed at how poorly some people think.
I work with some fairly powerful & highly placed business executives on a daily basis. Within their personal (business) domain they are generally insightful, intelligent, and questioning. Outside that domain, they are, almost to a person, as politically sophisticated as the average six-year old. Their understanding of 'science' doesn't even reach the level of 'popular science', and their knowledge of geography, culture, or mathematics is laudably absent!
Sometimes I feel like the one-eyed man... (thank goodness for Science-blogs, among others. You assure me there are some intelligent people in the US!)
Tony
There's nothing puritanical about being outraged by a powerful, 52 year old congressman having sexual relations with 16 year old kids, especially when they're under his care.
I know a lot of people think 16 year olds are fully grown, but most of them are still completely dependent on adults for their care and safety.
These were not relationships between equals. Pages getting these emails from Foley couldn't just tell him to knock it off without fearing repurcussions - the least of which would be loss of their opportunity to work at the capitol and the worst of which would be being accused of preying on Foley (see Matt Drudge or Rush Limbaugh for examples).