Another week, another fascinating seminar over at Mind Matters. The paper in question concerns a topic near and dear to me: decision making. Here's the abstract:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, it is not always advantageous to engage in thorough conscious deliberation before choosing. On the basis of recent insights into the characteristics of conscious and unconscious thought, we tested the hypothesis that simple choices (such as between different towels or different sets of oven mitts) indeed produce better results after conscious thought, but that choices in complex matters (such as between different houses or different cars) should be left to unconscious thought. Named the "deliberation-without-attention" hypothesis, it was confirmed in four studies on consumer choice, both in the laboratory as well as among actual shoppers, that purchases of complex products were viewed more favorably when decisions had been made in the absence of attentive deliberation.
The basic theory behind the paper is that our consciousness is extremely limited. (Our rationality is "bounded".) At any given moment, we can only hold 7 or so items in working memory, and are pretty terrible at statistical analysis. Given these constraints, it shouldn't be too surprising that our consciousness often makes bad decisions, especially when we are required to analyze multiple factors at the same time.
So what's the alternative? One option is to disown our consciousness all together, and rely on our adaptive unconscious instead. This part of our brain uses simple heuristics, gut instincts, and dopaminergic emotions to make decisions. Instead of carefully analyzing the situation, it just goes with what feels best.
Sure enough, in many different consumer situations, the adaptive unconscious makes better decisions that our more rational and introspective consciousness. Here's a description of one of Dijksterhuis' experiments:
Dijksterhuis and colleagues asked volunteers to read brief descriptions of four hypothetical cars and pick the one they'd like to buy after mulling it over for 4 minutes. The researchers made the decision far simpler than it is in real life by limiting the descriptions to just four attributes such as good gas mileage or poor legroom. One of the cars had more plusses than the others, and most participants chose this car. But when the researchers made the decision more complex by listing 12 attributes for each car, people identified the best car only about 25% of the time--no better than chance. The real surprise came when the researchers distracted the participants with anagram puzzles for 4 minutes before asking for their choices. More than half picked the best car. The counterintuitive conclusion, Dijksterhuis says, is that complex decisions are best made without conscious attention to the problem at hand.
I still think the seminal experiment on this topic was done by Timothy Wilson.
In the early 1990's, Wilson asked a few dozen female undergraduates to choose between several different posters. He gave them five options: a Monet landscape, a Van Gogh painting of some purple lilies, and three humorous cat posters. Before making their choices, the subjects were divided into two groups. The first group was the "non-thinking" group: they were simply instructed to rate each poster on a scale from 1 to 9, with 9 being best. The second group had a tougher task: before they rated the posters, they were given a questionnaire which asked them why they liked or disliked each of the five posters. At the end of the experiment, each of the subjects was given her favorite poster to take home.
The two groups of women made very different choices. Ninety-five percent of the "non-thinkers" chose either the Monet or the Van Gogh. Their feelings preferred the fine art. However, subjects who thought about their poster decision first were almost equally split between the impressionist paintings and the humorous cat posters. What accounted for the difference? "When looking at a painting by Monet," Wilson says, "most people generally have a positive reaction. When thinking about why they feel the way they do, however, what comes to mind and is easiest to verbalize might be that some of the colors are not very pleasing, and that the subject matter, a haystack, is rather boring." As a result, the women end up selecting the funny feline posters, if only because those posters gave them more grist for their explanatory mill.
In order to see which group made better decisions, Wilson conducted a follow up interview with the women a few weeks later. He asked them whether or not they still liked their poster, and how much money it would take to buy the poster from them. Sure enough, the "non-thinking" group was much more satisfied. While 75 percent of the people who chose the cat posters now regretted their selection, nobody regretted selecting the impressionists. The women who listened to their emotions ended up making much better decisions than the women who relied on their powers of reasoning. The more people thought about which poster they wanted the more misleading their thoughts became. Introspection resulted in less self-awareness and worse decision-making.
Of course, this doesn't mean that we should all propose marriage on the first date, or buy a book based on its cover. Rational analysis still has a purpose. But it does imply that, when making many of our consumer decisions, we should rely on our gut instincts and instantaneous emotions. These unconscious feelings, and not our powers of reason, are what allow us to maximize utility.
PS. I should also note that George Loewenstein has an excellent critique of this paper over at Mind Matters.
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This can only mean one thing: we do our best computation in background. That's really surprising, I mean, I can easily accept that there's processing going on that I'm not aware of, but.... it's BETTER? It raises a question about the nature of consciousness, and reminds me of a discussion I had with some friends.
The women agreed that they had a number of mental 'windows' (in the sense of the operating system) that were 'open' simultaneously, and that women's charming or startling habit of asking totally non sequitur questions at times is due to one of the background processes suddenly needing user input.
At the time I thought, jeeze, how to you cope with THAT? You're thinking about 18 things at once, and you're sort of aware of them all, all the time?? Guy that I am, it seems to me that I think about Subject A for a while, then I think about Subject B for a while, and so forth. But is it possible instead that both A and B are ongoing processes, and the entity I think of as 'I" is just visiting one and then the other? And, based on the above, could that visit be a distraction that actually slows things down? It fits with lots of experience of course... the way we "sleep on" decisions, and how, when we're struggling to remember someone's name, we intentionally distract ourselves and think of something else.
But it's fascinating to think of "I" as just some visitor function that doesn't actually 'think', but rather docks with ongoing computation processes. You believe that you're thinking about Subject A, because your visitor happens to be docked with the A process. Provides a good model for a lot of observations: Women's 'visitor' is better able to sense all the ongoing processes, and move easily among them. A guy's visitor has much less awareness of the other processes, and is less inclined to move among them. In sleep, the visitor process is not running.
It's very uncomfortable to give up the unitary "I", and consider that it may be an illusion created by two different processes docking. If I don't think, then therefore I ain't!
I fail to see how the painting example proves anything. Some people will prefer a simple picture of a cat to a more complex picture of a starry night. Sometimes people need a little humor rather than heavy profundity. Of course the Monet and Van Gogh paintings are superior as art and expressions of creativity. But to say they are "better" than pictures of cats is to presume that people are choosing what is more artistic, rather than what appeals to them (or what fits better in their home or office). This experiment does not begin to resemble the "which car is superior" one.
Thank you for your comments. Mark: yes. the conscious "I" is a paltry processor of information compared to the unconscious. While your consciousness can only process about 30-60 bits of information per second, psychologists believe that the unconscious can process up to several bits of information per second.
Anon: Wilson didn't care about the artistic superiority of Monet. All he cared about was the satisfaction expressed by subjects several weeks after choosing a poster. Here is the relevant excerpt: "While 75 percent of the people who chose the cat posters now regretted their selection, nobody regretted selecting the impressionists. The women who listened to their emotions ended up making much better decisions than the women who relied on their powers of reasoning."
several how many bits per second? think a word got omitted from your reply to my comment?
several how many bits per second? think a word got omitted from your reply to my comment?
Whoops. I'm very sorry about that. Here's the relevant excerpt from Ap's paper:"Depending on the context, consciousness can process between 10 and 60 bites per second. As an illustration, if you read you process about 45 bits per second, which corresponds to a fairly short sentence. The entire human system combined, however, was argued to be able to process about 11,200,000 bits. The visual system alone processess about 10 million bits per second."
Keep in mind that these are very crude approximations. But the general drift is accurate: your consciousness is a Commodore 64, while your unconscious brain is one of those supercomputers they employ at the Pentagon.
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