Robert Stacey McCain has a disgraceful whitewash of the affair in the Washington Times. The most important thing about this affair has always been whether Lott's 98% brandishing claim is true. By any objective reading of the existing evidence it is not. On the one hand we have nine surveys that say the number is much lower, on the other hand we have Lott's new survey, where even Lott concedes that the sample size is so small that it does not contradict the big surveys. By advancing this 98% figure over 50 times Lott is giving people dangerously misleading advice. Advice that could get them injured or killed. "Just wave a gun around. Doesn't even have to be loaded." he implies. McCain's article implies that the 98% number is correct: "Lott said 98%, he's been vindicated, there you go." Beside this horribly misleading implication the rest of the flaws in the article seem insignificant:
- I get labeled as a "gun control advocate", but Polsby and Gross don't get labeled as "pro-gun advocates".
- It's not about a single sentence; there are over 50 sentences involved.
- Again we see the utterly false claim that this is some sort of payback for Bellesiles. James Lindgren is angry about the treatment of Bellesiles? Ridiculous.
- How can McCain possibly say that "Lott cited no source for that statistic in the first edition of More Guns, Less Crime"? Lott cited a source, clear as day, and McCain even quoted him: "National surveys". This is the sneakiest dodge of all, because it enabled him to avoid discussing what "national surveys" actually said, which was something very different from what Lott claimed.
- McCain selectively quotes Lindgren to make sure his readers do not learn that there are still unresolved questions about Lott's claim.
Kieran Healy makes an absolutely first class post on this topic. Kieran writes:
In any event, it seems trivially obvious to me that you shouldn't make claims on the basis of data you don't have. This is especially true when your claims are inconsistent with all of the other available data on this issue.
Exactly. What is it going to take to get Lott to behave in a professionally responsible manner and withdraw his 98% claim?