Well, everyone is waiting breathlessly to see who wins. I voted today, and I would bet money that I am the only one in this county who voted for Badnarik; the vote counters probably think it was a joke ballot. The voter turnout has been huge, with predictions that it might top 70% of eligible voters. I'm not sure that's ever happened before, but I know it doesn't bode well for Bush and the Republicans. Higher turnout always favors the Democrats, especially with an incumbent Republican.
I had a conversation with my Republican campaign consultant friend the other day and he predicted that it would be a clear victory one way or the other. His reasoning was that he really believed that the bulk of the swing states will all break in the same direction; he did not predict which way that would go, but he was sure that there would be a very clear trend. Zogby International just released their final polling numbers and they are predicting a landslide, with Kerry winning Ohio, Pennsylvania AND Florida and getting over 300 electoral votes. They are traditionally the most accurate of all polling companies. At this point, I'd put my money on Kerry, for the first time in this campaign. I've thought Bush was going to win all along.
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I guess in my state the dems aren't even trying to win because 4 out of 5 political commercials are for the republicans. The usual "protecting marriage" stuff and the use of the word "liberal" in scary red letters. If you got your information from watching TV here, you'd think Bush couldn't possibly lose.
It still baffles me that he's not winning easily with the way repubs are able to control political discourse to their liking.
Nice to have you predicting on the winning side Ed! (I hope).
Here in Florida the turnout has been pretty amazing. I spent much of the day trucking folks from poor neighborhoods back and forth. And it's my anecdotal observation that this challnging thing may have backfired fairly significantly on the GOP. These folks were quite aware of what was going on, and several of them told me that's when they decided no one was going to stop them from voting.
300 Electoral votes is a landslide? I've been predicting 300+ EVs for Kerry for a few weeks now. I've been watching the polls and watching the pollsters skew their Likely Voter weighting more and more to Bush to keep the results approxamately even. This election will not be decided by the courts.
Dare I even foster a hope? I don't know, that scares me a little. Then again, I dared to hope for my red sox, knowing the crushing dissapointment that comes along with THAT every year- and look what happened. And I'm wearing my red sox ALCS sweatshirt. I bought one of those scratch-off tickets for a dollar tonight, and won two dollars.
I don't believe in omens, certainly, but tonight I really really want to.
Kerry might be an asshole, but at this point I'll gladly take the asshole over the theocracy creeping ever closer with every day Bush is in office.
I hope Kerry is the clear winner tonight, enough to make a challenge look spiteful and hopeless. I can't bear the thought of this dragging on through December... again.
Tonight Ed says he is sure he will dream about Bush and Kerry chasing him thru a cornfield LOL
LOL, that's great.
Voter turnout has not topped 70% since the 1924 elections, when I could find stats. In fact, it has only topped 60% thrice in that time, 62.8% in 1960, 61.6% in 1952, and 61.9% in 1964.
Kinda sad actually. Most democracies get way more voter action than that.
As of now, 9:45 Eastern time, the electoral votes are running 170-112 for Bush. If Kerry's getting 300 he better get busy.
I just feel utterly shattered. I don't have a good feeling about this. This country, let alone this planet, cannot afford another four years of Bush.
We may be on our way to a theocracy.
As I write this, Bush just won Florida.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are fucked.
If Kerry doesn't win Ohio...
Excuse me, I feel it's about time for me to go and just get blind stinking drunk.
I know I sound like an idiot guys. I'm just... I'm terrified. I'm really scared.
You can all tell me how stupid I'm being, now... Please?
It's past midnight here in California and it seems inevitable that Bush will win. Amazing. If ever there was a guy who had done everything in his power to deserve to lose, it was Bush. But the exit polls are telling us that moral questions were the decisive issue -- a possibility that really wasn't discussed by the punditry beforehand. I think we're all blindsided by that one. We also learn that once again the kids did not turn out to vote. And that married women went for Bush in a big way because of security. They are blind to the fact that their kids will be at greater risk driving to the mall, than from a terror attack. Besides which Bush's policies have been one giant recruitment effort for new terrorists. Mind boggling.
Bush has been reckless and incompetent in the war on terror, but he makes married women feel safe. What the?
Then there are all the gay marriage initiatives. Tyranny of the majority.
Much of this is generational I think. We are being ruled by the old people who vote, and by their values. When they die things will change. I'll miss my parents, but not their values.
BTW Ed -- It looks like Badnarik will be about 10,000 short of what Browne did in 2000. The gap would have been even larger except for all the ground Badnarik made-up in states where Nader was not on the ballot.
To bed now. Life goes on.
It's now 6:25 Eastern, and let's face it, except for a small theoretical possibility (the provisional and overseas Ohio ballots going heavy in his favour), it's all over for Kerry. Not only has Bush won Florida with little doubt, he has increased his popular vote as well.
I breifly thought great, that means the Bush II administration can clean up the mess the Bush I administration made.
And then I sobered up.
Clearly, this is going to be seen as a mandate to do even more of the same. The people seem to like it.
You want a fundamentalist Christian theocracy? We can move in that direction. You want to invade Iran? Let's talk about that. You don't want a draft? Well Bush only said he wouldn't have a draft in his administration, and come January 21st we're in a new and different administration, so we'll see.
Remember, being in control of the White House, the Congress and the Supreme Court only means they can be persecuted more by the tyranny of the minority, so let's get started on that next trillion in the hole.
The citizens of this country are getting exactly what they deserve. They cast the votes.
My first thought was anger at Kerry for not distinguishing himself enough from Bush's policies, that if he'd run on a more Dean- or Nader-like platform of anti-war, populace outrage, he might have swung things his way. But now I'm convinced that it wouldn't have mattered -- this country has been lost to the Christian Right. They are ignorant (anti-science, fact-oblivious) and indecent (pro-war, gay-despising)...and they will make up the country's majority voting block for a long time into the future. Theocratic madness has crept upon, pounced, and now gleefully gnaws to shreds our secular founding documents: it has elected its divine channeler for another term.
This morning, I feel a numbing sense of despair and profound sadness for my children, who will have to face such a Jesus-despising "Christian" future...as well as the threat stemming from Bush's fiscal irresponsibility and military adventurism.
PZ has a very well written piece over at Pharyngula.
Good Afternoon
Another blog said yesterday that if you continue to discount your opponents as a bag of hammers you will never be able to defeat them.
Bush voters are Americans.
Most are not stupid or fascist.
You should hang out with some of them, sometime, over a good ale.
You may learn something.
Sincerely