An influenza pandemic will have many casualties, but truthfully, it never occurred to me YouTube might be one of them:
Many companies and government agencies are counting on legions of teleworkers to keep their operations running in the event of an influenza pandemic. But those plans may quickly run aground as millions of people turn to the Internet for news and even entertainment, potentially producing a bandwidth-choking surge in online traffic.Such a surge would almost certainly prompt calls to restrict or prioritize traffic, such as blocking video transmissions wherever possible, according to business continuity planners who gathered on Friday at a SunGard Availability Systems hot-site facility in northern New Jersey to consider the impact of a pandemic on the Internet.
Businesses as well as home users likely would be asked to voluntarily restrict high-bandwidth traffic, the planners said. And if asking didn't work, they warned, government action to restrict traffic might well follow.
"Is there a need for a YouTube during a national emergency?" asked John Thomas, vice president of enterprise systems at a large, New York-based financial institution that he asked not be identified. (linuxworld)
The internet is amazingly fault tolerant. Even if chunks of the network are compromised, the technology intrinsically finds a workaround. But the choke point is the last few miles, the part from your ISP to you.There's no redundancy there and if my whole neighborhood is on at once and at length there would likely not be enough capacity. From your standpoint, the whole network might as well be down.
The alternative of providing business-class dedicated lines for workers is not only expensive but unnecessary in routine times. Yet if a pandemic were signaled by news of a spread in some other part of the world, demand for such lines would exceed supply as everyone scrambled at once to get ready.
The gathering of IT professionals produced one ray of hope.
After the general session, attendees broke off into groups to discuss specific issues. In one group, there was clear agreement that personal needs would trump business needs, especially in the early stages of a pandemic. But eventually, economic issues would catch up -- for instance, to help meet the need for basic supplies. That might mean someone working in IT at a book publisher could be asked to write or modify applications to help the company use its distribution systems for food and medicine instead of books.
[snip]
Another message coming out of the forum was that there will be a strong need for cooperation among businesses if a pandemic does occur. That may be a lesson learned from the federal government's failures in quickly responding after Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005. "By working together, we can make a lot of things happen, and we shouldn't have to rely on the government to make it happen," said Peter Briody, a systems specialist and business continuity coordinator at Cytec Industries.
It doesn't take much pondering to realize we will all be in this together and that helping each other is the best overall strategy. Like businesses, our personal prepping should also include a heavy dose of figuring out structures and mechanisms of mutual aid.
If competing businesses "get it," so can the rest of us. Right?
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A note of irony. I work for a subsidiary of Sungard. Over the last year I have tried to interest my company in developing a pandemic preparedness plan. They have declined to do so. It seems to me that if Sungard Availability Services is in the business of helping other companies to prepare for a pandemic, they should do the same for their own.
crazy world, ain't it, anonymous?
(Going to need something in addition to the Darwin Award.)
Have any of you all ever been to the online bird flu discussion forum located at http://www.Avianflutalk.com ?
Everybody on that board are heavily into pandemic flu prep.
Hope this helps.
Little late in the day for commercial sites.
And the Reveres have ties with The Flu Wiki, in case you haven't noticed.
There are many sites with pandemic preppers, and, some of us have been aware of being in a pre-pandemic part of history for years.
There are too few bureaucrats or business people with the urge to go look into the science themselves until they understand what is going on.
(I think they look more carefully at their weather reports/radar sometimes. Why can't they do as much with things like H5N1 ? Look at the facts on the ground.)
anonymous, one way makes money, the other way costs money. Oh to be as powerful as the all-mighty dollar.
Among long-time flu watchers, AvianFluTalk has the nickname Avian Flu Tabloid. They tend to issue 'press releases' with unsubstantiated alarmist rumors to mislead the unwary and boost board membership.
I wouldn't have learned about the bird flu if I didn't read one of their PRs. I suppose whatever gets the people's attention no matter how bad it makes them look, it's worth while to the general public. Scaring the bajeebas out of people in order to ultimately save lives is something that nobody else is doing. AvianFluTalk has probably brought more awareness to Panflu then ALL of the internet websites combined. Now that would translate into saving thousands of lives ... Maybe they boosted traffic to help spread the word and to educate the public, and not to make money,
Yes, Avianflutalk made my family aware of the bird flu so I'm not about to stab them in the back "for saving our lives".
Isn't Avianflutalk the same site that was pushing the public to getting the dumb pneumonia vaccination when nobody else would?? So what did they have to gain by doing that? The long time flubie community is disloyal cowards if you ask me. Anyone that has had a pneumonia vaccination or who has prepared their family should be in line to thank them.
This will all be beside the point if we have no electricity to run the computer after the first few weeks!!!
I think the Internet will help in a pandemic in several important ways (if it stays up, and if power is there to support it). Obviously work-from-home and home schooling, which may prove quite useful. But also to maintain social fabric when we are otherwise pretty isolated. This may also help the sustainability of non-pharmaceutical interventions, e.g., taking "snow days." In theory, kids could meet with their friends across the net, with the malls and schools closed. For You-Tube specifically, it might improve what CDC calls "situation awareness." I'm sure there will be multiple video posts of what is going on at specific places. Public health should get digital priority tags for its posts and security options so that they can provide situation awareness of, say, hospitals or any evacuation areas to decision-makers who control available resources during the most intrense part of an outbreak.
I have posted on that power thing before. Most of the coal fired plants will be heading downhill within 2.5 weeks after they quit mining coal. There is about a two week supply at the coal mines, the power plants only have the storage for about another 2 weeks. So from pandemic start where it gets REALLY BAD, we are on borrowed time. We could be asked NOT to run them computers as it equates to coal and actually depending on the time of year and where you are whether you freeze to death or not. Informationally you can using a 1000 watt inverter running off your car cig lighter and an extension cable to your furnace (110 volts only folks) fire that thing up every couple of hours and keep it marginally warm.
A question was asked the other day about gas production. Now theres a big question. Natural gas comes out of the ground and its pumped to the NE. There has to be electricity for that and there has to be for gasoline/diesel production. Either way, the sources of normal heat are going to come into question if it happens. We are heading into spring here in the US and thats good. If it doesnt come until fall/winter of 07 it gives you just that much more time to spare. Dont wait because as you all know the graphs continue to rise and anything/everything you can do will only help you or a neighbor to make it.
You can also use those solar panels to make a hydrogen generator which with a little work can provide you with a source of heat if you have a fire place.
As for the YouTube thing and power for the computers, i suggest 12 heavy duty car batteries and solar panels for 45 watts going into them, thus making a "day" charge. Then you use an inverter to change it back to VDC. Takes the load off and you can run all day with it. The internet may quickly be changed to primary communications links as VoIP might be the only thing that works as well but dont buy stock in those companies if its looking grim. They will simply put them out of business and lock down all ISP's not having a clearance from the government. I have my address already in as an essential service so you can contact your ISP now to fill out a certificate of critical need. Being able to talk to Aunt Maude isnt going to get it. They will leave it up for everyone initially, then if it degradates they will load shed to the most important ones.
One other thing. Its your neighborhood. If the power goes out the phones will last about 2 days max on batteries so the internet isnt going to mean diddly to most of us after that. Call your local phone company and ask them to train you on how to charge those batteries up as an emergency worker. Not much to it and they will applaud the action. Believe it or not, they are only big car sized batteries. Your solar panels would make you the hero in your neighborhood as the power you provide will give them all a link to the outside.
Getting to be time to fish or cut bait.
YouTube is helping spread the word about what a severe pandemic might be like.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8b2gJBOE3oÂ
and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTH5EBParCE
There are other videos too - search for Pandemic
waving hi to Goju ;-)
"Call your local phone company and ask them to train you on how to charge those batteries up as an emergency worker" MRK would they, really?
Wouldn't people have to have background checks, or the company claim they have everything under control; no need for public to have such ideas?
Plenty of places, including the CDC, were mentioning Pneumovax, a long time ago;
Merck was tripling its production back in 2004,
and Massachusetts was telling providers to increase its pneumococcal vax rates as part of what they did to prepare for panflu
(reduces complications and illnesses that wouldn't be treatable during pandemic.)
Yeah, that will grab the young 'uns attention: no more YouTube during the pandemic. I wonder how different segments of the infrastructure will hold up, it all depends on how many people are left that can keep things running. Not sure anyone really knows, or can model it with any degree of certainty. Guess we may find out one day. If the electric grid gets spotty, it's going to get bad. I am still surprised at how much of a PITA losing power is even for me, I have generators, lead acid cell backup, and solar panels but it just isn't the same as good ol' CPL.
Which makes we wonder if the priorities are correct for pandemic preparedness, maybe the money best spent is 6 month coal and refined product stockpiles. Without that the rest is much harder.
stu: Remember, too, it's not just the big infrastructure but the little one in your neighborhood. Most cable feeds share bandwidth in neighborhoods. It you run out of bandwidth there, it doesn't matter if the highspeed backbone is still up.
CR-Anyone could break into their little kiosks on the corner or up 12 or so feet off the ground. They are only locked with padlocks. But, charging up a battery isnt rocket science either. I have read a couple of EMA reports that they are figuring it out that with the cuts in the telephone companies that they might just need the help. Each area is likely very different. In the NE I am sure you would need a background check, a body cavity search, not have a middle eastern sounding name. Mind, as along as the power is on those batteries are on trickle chargers operating from 110 volts on the pole.
If you are interested check into it. The Aussies might have a HUGE problem because of their distance factors. I also saw something about their comm grid and that there are repeater stations that draw a lot of power. Look into it though. It can only make things better if it happens.
wince Still don't have someone to ride shotgun.
Maybe the honchos accountable for our town would like to step down,
get searched to see it they're full of it, and start a new line of work, though, come to think of it, they don't seem keen on learning new things.
Well they certainly are in the EMA/DHS. I have learned how to operate some absolutely huge equipment in the last few months. All of the miitary stuff I already had along with my USGOVT drivers license. But the EMA/DHS people are having to learn both that and along with me HUGE generators. Hospital sized mugs, dump trucks (yeah let your mind wander on that one), 18 wheelers (reefers-no more wandering there) and monster sized military tow trucks. The size you can pull an M-1 tank out of the mud with.
Yep, learn all there is to learn now before it becomes an issue. I guarantee you it will save a life or two. Feel free to stick it to Revere who says he wont prepare too. Since this will go right wing rapidly if it comes we will need both immunologists and left wingers too to balance things out. He says he is too old. Bullshit. A fine wine gets better with age. Sure at 100 years its vinegar but not until then.
Besides if the net is up, no on has anyone elses email addresses other than mine that I am aware of on the blog. He wouldnt want me to convert you guys too quickly.
I posted to Revere about a Dutch surveillance system for common flu, but I suspect it was too Dutchy (and not translated of course) to be able to think about it.
But the idea behind it is a website to where every citizen can subscribe and they will receive a weekly email to remember them it's time to share flu like symptoms of last week. And they add everything and try to discriminate common colds from flus and it's al blotted on a coloured map every day.
Of course it's not scientific but it's IMO a nice way to see some seasonal phenomena and in case of a H5N1 or so it would be nice to see something like that also.
What percentage of the citizens in the Netherlands are participating?
(Small areas of the US would find this idea helpful just to know when other things start to circulate in their community, if people could anonymously report symptoms, and also, diagnosis of things like strep, chickenpox, norovirus, TB, MRSA, ect.)
Of course, once the internet or electrical grid crashes, there's going to be a lot of unhappy campers...
I have no idea why this thread is still live, but:
A fine out there for temporary off-the-grid and extreme camping etc. are the Burning Man sites.
Also, if you must do the car battery thing, deep-cycle batts like wheelchair batteries or phone company/railroad surplus batteries are better. Car batts are designed to dump a huge blast, and are damaged by draining down close to zero. Deep-cycle batts are the opposite: they only dribble out, but can happily go down to zero.
But the choke point is the last few miles, the part from your ISP to you.There's no redundancy there and if my whole neighborhood is on at once and at length there would likely not be enough capacity. From your standpoint, the whole network might as well be down.
This cuts two ways: overload and outages. This is a fair point on overloads. About outages:
Phone lines and cable lines both penetrate homes, and both can be ISPs. Copper phone lines are powered at the exchange, and so backup power can be handled by professionals.
Since modems or DSL can be on the phone line, and cable modem can be on the cable TV feed, a home computer can use both in a duplicate mode. This might even work on current Windows/Mac out of the box; I wrote a TCP/IP (Internet software) twenty years ago and it was all much simpler then.